2016 US Presidential Election

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Tyndmyr
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:33 pm UTC

Florida routinely experiences reasonable crossover. For instance, 12% of democrats crossed over to vote for Bush against Gore. Focusing heavily on a single number as an indicator, when there are several caveats for accuracy can get you an invalid answer.

Okay, sure, maybe Republican women are crossing over at a higher rate. I have little trouble believing that. But isn't this already baked into polls to some degree? Don't the current polls already show Trump doing worse than usual among women? And we already know that early voters tend to be people who skew democrat. This isn't really that strange of a result. If this is consistent with what we already expected, it's not a persuasive reason to change our beliefs regarding what is probable.

And their poll lists the results as 48% to 40%. Either third parties are doing unusually well, or people are not answering. The former seems improbable.

Also, "no margin of error is calculated for this poll" is deeply unsettling.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:00 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Florida routinely experiences reasonable crossover. For instance, 12% of democrats crossed over to vote for Bush against Gore. Focusing heavily on a single number as an indicator, when there are several caveats for accuracy can get you an invalid answer.


Umm... What? That was one item in a list in my post. The timing of the early votes and the number of early votes is the main point I'm making. A higher than normal crossover is expected specifically because of the timing, and the data points to that. So yes, the data passes the smell test, it makes sense that Trump would be way behind.

Also, there's this: https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/0 ... -in-the-p/

Which suggests Trump's current lead is likely overstated by the polls anyway. YouGov, who has a pretty good track record attempts to adjust for response bias, has Clinton up +3 in Florida.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby mcd001 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:36 pm UTC

Yesterday I climbed out of my basket, went to the polls, and cast my vote for Trump. I made it safely back to my basket where I (along with all the other deplorables) eagerly await the results of the election.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Whizbang » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:37 pm UTC

Deplorable.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:43 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:Which suggests Trump's current lead is likely overstated by the polls anyway. YouGov, who has a pretty good track record attempts to adjust for response bias, has Clinton up +3 in Florida.


This seems a more reasonable result. Clinton has a decent chance to win Florida(and that's pretty significant for her map), but I don't think that the early voting is a strong reason for why.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:46 pm UTC

I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out), and the only candidate who has never demonstrated any traits reminiscent of a decent human being, the candidate who never tells the truth, in which there is very good evidence that he has been groomed as a Russian asset, who has absolutely no grasp of either foreign or domestic policy, lacks the ability to communicate clearly, has no diplomatic skills, who thinks yelling is being a good boss/negotiator, and whose only reason for running appears to be to stroke his own ego. Wow! Good choice. That a large percentage of our country was willing to vote for the single worst candidate in recent history because of lies, propaganda, hatred and fear, I would say is pretty deplorable.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:48 pm UTC

The political effectsof the deplorable commend aside, I like how it got people to openly identify as deplorable, it is a great warning sign.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:51 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out)


GOP hasn't been about small government in quite some time.

It's just a legacy part of their advertising campaign.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:54 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
Thesh wrote:I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out)


GOP hasn't been about small government in quite some time.

It's just a legacy part of their advertising campaign.


I was specifically referring to this: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=111589&p=4048702#p4048702
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Yablo » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:21 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Also, "no margin of error is calculated for this poll" is deeply unsettling.

It is. The margin of error is directly based on sample size and confidence level. If they can't calculate that, they have no business conducting a poll.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Yablo » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:23 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out), and the only candidate who has never demonstrated any traits reminiscent of a decent human being, the candidate who never tells the truth, in which there is very good evidence that he has been groomed as a Russian asset, who has absolutely no grasp of either foreign or domestic policy, lacks the ability to communicate clearly, has no diplomatic skills, who thinks yelling is being a good boss/negotiator, and whose only reason for running appears to be to stroke his own ego. Wow! Good choice. That a large percentage of our country was willing to vote for the single worst candidate in recent history because of lies, propaganda, hatred and fear, I would say is pretty deplorable.

The bits I bolded pretty well describe Hillary, too.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby gmalivuk » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:26 pm UTC

Unless stated otherwise, I do not care whether a statement, by itself, constitutes a persuasive political argument. I care whether it's true.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:38 pm UTC

Yablo wrote:
Thesh wrote:I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out), and the only candidate who has never demonstrated any traits reminiscent of a decent human being, the candidate who never tells the truth, in which there is very good evidence that he has been groomed as a Russian asset, who has absolutely no grasp of either foreign or domestic policy, lacks the ability to communicate clearly, has no diplomatic skills, who thinks yelling is being a good boss/negotiator, and whose only reason for running appears to be to stroke his own ego. Wow! Good choice. That a large percentage of our country was willing to vote for the single worst candidate in recent history because of lies, propaganda, hatred and fear, I would say is pretty deplorable.

The bits I bolded pretty well describe Hillary, too.


Hillary has actually used her political career to push for anti-poverty programs for families and children. The Clintons also founded a major global charity that helps people other than themselves. She is pretty honest for a politician, and after 30 years of investigations, and tax returns going back to the 70s, and all sorts of email leaks, anyone looking at the evidence can see that she is not corrupt - you put that amount of time and effort into anyone, you'll dig up *something* and all we have on Clinton is a bunch of benign bullshit. With Trump, the only thing we know as a matter of fact is that he is a horrible human being and doesn't have any qualifications for President, nor does he demonstrate any knowledge or concern with most of the issues our country faces, nor has he ever shown any compassion for the people of the country.

The only possible way Trump could be worse is if he was actively promoting genocide of American immigrants.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:49 pm UTC

PeteP wrote:
The political effectsof the deplorable commend aside, I like how it got people to openly identify as deplorable, it is a great warning sign.
Gotta hand it to Trump, he really brought the racism and sexism out of hiding in this election. Doesn't stop his surrogates from claiming racism is over (or was started by Obama...) of course, but makes it pretty obvious to anyone with basic awareness.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Izawwlgood » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:14 pm UTC

This 'both candidates are equally bad' rhetoric is appallingly ignorant and misinformed, and I cannot wait to be done with it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Sableagle » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:30 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:You don't know what you're talking about. Please spare me your quote sniping and general obliviousness.

CorruptUser wrote:Just admit that you were wrong ... and your entire life, cyberspace and meatspace both, would be orders of magnitude more enjoyable for you and others around you.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:38 pm UTC

Xeio wrote:
PeteP wrote:
The political effectsof the deplorable commend aside, I like how it got people to openly identify as deplorable, it is a great warning sign.
Gotta hand it to Trump, he really brought the racism and sexism out of hiding in this election. Doesn't stop his surrogates from claiming racism is over (or was started by Obama...) of course, but makes it pretty obvious to anyone with basic awareness.


To be fair, a lot of Trump voters are just useful idiots. I'd say the three main groups of trump supporters are the misinformed, useful idiots, and deplorables, with each of the latter groups being a superset of all of the former groups.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:43 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:To be fair, a lot of Trump voters are just useful idiots.

(I'm gonna say it. I probably shouldn't, but I will.) You're half right.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:47 pm UTC

They're useful to Trump, as long as they keep going around and spreading the "They are both perfectly identical, that's why I could never vote for Hillary and will vote for Trump." or "Everything anyone has ever said about Trump is lies, everything anyone has ever suggested about Hillary is true."
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:03 pm UTC



That implies that a black church is the mirror image of the Klan. Now, if instead it was a Black Supremacist meeting place...

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:05 pm UTC

The entire point is that it's not the mirror image.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:05 pm UTC


You know that is not how that works. Liberals are destroying the primacy of the white race. To them, Committing a hate crime is plenty fair.

Thesh, all parties have useful idiots with which you can use their money and their time to push forward your own private agenda. Studies show that more than half the country is racist, and such, but it contains Democrats and Republicans.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:11 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Thesh, all parties have useful idiots with which you can use their money and their time to push forward your own private agenda. Studies show that more than half the country is racist, and such, but it contains Democrats and Republicans.


The difference is that Hillary isn't relying solely on those voters to win the election. She has people who are voting for her because she supports things like minimum wage, and they think people should be able to afford to eat, or because she doesn't brag about assaulting women.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

Those seem more like reasons to vote against Trump rather than for Hillary.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Chen » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:26 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:The difference is that Hillary isn't relying solely on those voters to win the election. She has people who are voting for her because she supports things like minimum wage, and they think people should be able to afford to eat, or because she doesn't brag about assaulting women.


You know, it certainly feels like most people who are voting Hillary are doing it for the same reason as most of the people who are voting Trump; because of the party they're attached to and general partisanship.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:30 pm UTC

Ehh... Your party membership reflects your ideals, and a lot of Republicans aren't voting for Trump.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:33 pm UTC

I always thought it was a reflection of what party your parents belonged to...

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:35 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:I always thought it was a reflection of what party your parents belonged to...


Parents teach their children their ideals.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:36 pm UTC

Chen wrote:
Thesh wrote:The difference is that Hillary isn't relying solely on those voters to win the election. She has people who are voting for her because she supports things like minimum wage, and they think people should be able to afford to eat, or because she doesn't brag about assaulting women.


You know, it certainly feels like most people who are voting Hillary are doing it for the same reason as most of the people who are voting Trump; because of the party they're attached to and general partisanship.

That's wrong. Despite Trump's grass roots veneer, it's actually Clinton who has the support of her voters. Most of Trump's voters are in it to stop Clinton. Which of course speaks either to partisanship or how awful Clinton is to Republicans. They do not vote for Trump, they are voting against Clinton. Don't let the media paint a false equivalence between the two candidates.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Chen » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:47 pm UTC

sardia wrote:That's wrong. Despite Trump's grass roots veneer, it's actually Clinton who has the support of her voters. Most of Trump's voters are in it to stop Clinton. Which of course speaks either to partisanship or how awful Clinton is to Republicans. They do not vote for Trump, they are voting against Clinton. Don't let the media paint a false equivalence between the two candidates.


Nothing in my statement said they approved of Trump or Hillary. Just that they're voting along party lines, for the party they associate with. Now perhaps "most" is overstating it. Maybe it's not a majority that are doing that. But it's a pretty damn big number. The whole fact that we can consider even the 6 point split that was seen last week as indicative of a "landslide victory" shows just how ridiculously partisan and divided the country is.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:53 pm UTC

People aren't partisan because they like to be. Choosing parties means you are pushing for a direction that the country should go to. The most stable part of the country is foreign policy, everything else, the people heavily disagree under. That involves spending money, killing people, forcing others to sacrifice something.

You seem to be implying that the partisan differences are meaningless or have no monetary value.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Nov 02, 2016 8:23 pm UTC

I would like to state, unequivocally, that I am not partisan. I am parmesan. Or is that too cheesy a thing to say?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Wed Nov 02, 2016 8:26 pm UTC

Yablo wrote:
Thesh wrote:I love when people act like their biggest issue small government, but then vote for the most authoritarian candidate in the election (even among GOP candidates, he stood out), and the only candidate who has never demonstrated any traits reminiscent of a decent human being, the candidate who never tells the truth, in which there is very good evidence that he has been groomed as a Russian asset, who has absolutely no grasp of either foreign or domestic policy, lacks the ability to communicate clearly, has no diplomatic skills, who thinks yelling is being a good boss/negotiator, and whose only reason for running appears to be to stroke his own ego. Wow! Good choice. That a large percentage of our country was willing to vote for the single worst candidate in recent history because of lies, propaganda, hatred and fear, I would say is pretty deplorable.

The bits I bolded pretty well describe Hillary, too.
If you genuinely believe this, then you're politically illiterate. I don't even mean that in an insulting way; I mean that the belief that Hillary is the single worst candidate in recent history strongly correlates with people who know nothing about politics.

Once someone takes a position like that, it's hard to even have a discussion with them; it'd be like trying to talk physics with someone who believes phlogiston is real, or biology with someone who thinks spontaneous generation is a thing. Where do you even begin?

No, Hillary is not the worst presidential candidate in recent history. Yes, you could make a case that Trump *is*.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:21 pm UTC

How are we defining "recent"? Because if we are going to the past 3 presidential elections, the Dems decided that Obama was better than Hillary, therefore Hillary was the worst Democrat candidate in recent history. Trump's definitely worse than McCain or Romney, so he's the worst Republican. Jill Stein isn't nearly as bad as Cynthia McKinney, so McKinney is the worst Green. Johnson is certainly better than Bob "DOMA" Barr, making Barr the worst Libertarian candidate. If we take it back to 2000, we add in Kerry+Gore, Bush, Badnarik+Browne and Cobb+Nader. McKinney is still worse, so she's still the Green's worst pick. Badnarik's still better than Barr, and Browne was actually likable, so again Barr. Bush is better than Trump by a mile, and being better than Bush is not even a particularly high bar. Kerry I'd say was slightly better than Clinton, and I think Gore was better than Kerry (and Bush). So the rankings don't change.

So it's McKinney, Barr, Hillary, and Trump. I'd say Hillary is better than both McKinney and Trump, though I can't tell whether Trump or McKinney are worse. The real question is whether Hillary is better than Barr.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:29 pm UTC

In terms of nominees who have had a shot of winning the election, no one worse than Trump comes to mind (although my knowledge of Presidential elections of the 1800s and early 20th century is sparse). So for the sake of argument, last 30 years.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:32 pm UTC

At the end of the day voters will tell you who the worst and best are. If you win you're the best candidate, if you don't you're a loser. It is the only meaningful metric.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:36 pm UTC

Oh sorry about the edit conflict, included back to 2000. So last 30 years?

Ok, Trump is far, far worse than Bush Sr, Dole, Bush Jr, McCain, and even Romney. So he's the worst Republican.

For the Dems, it's Bill Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama, and Hillary. The Dems decided that Obama was better than Hillary, so he's out. I'd say Kerry was better than Gore, marginally, so Kerry's out. Bill was better than his Veep, so it's between Gore and Hillary. And I think Gore was slightly better. So Hillary's the worst Dem.

So yes, it's the worst of each. However, Hillary is marginally better than both Bush Jr and Romney, therefore it's not technically the worst two candidates in recent history.

Edit: Forgot about Dukakis. I'd say he's better than his Lieutenant Governor, John Kerry. So he's still out.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:05 pm UTC

It's sort of a pointless distinction if the criteria for best and worst are just the winners and losers......


I just got home from seeing Barack talk. He was pretty great. It was warm and sunny. James Taylor played a few songs before the man himself came on. I teared up a little towards the end. I wanted to invite him over for dinner but he said he had some leftovers he was gonna zap on the plane.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:09 pm UTC

Out of all those candidates, which one has confessed to sexual assault, advocated murdering anyone related to a terrorist, threatened to jail a political opponent during a debate, and described immigrants as 'rapists'?

The scale of Trump's terrible is far beyond anything Hillary -- the Democrats -- or hell, even the Republicans -- have put out in at least a quarter of a century.

You know it's bad when the party is tearing itself apart to get away from their own candidate.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:47 pm UTC

Liri wrote:It's sort of a pointless distinction if the criteria for best and worst are just the winners and losers......
Candidates exist to advance the agenda of their supporters and they do that by being elected(that is the naive view). If they don't win they can't "do" anything. If you want to feel morally superior be my guest. I'm interested in beating Trump badly enough to discourage another fool like him.

Hillary isn't evil but she brings baggage. Already some more conservative Republican Clinton haters are talking about impeachment. Others are threatening investigations. And this will go on for four years if she wins. There won't be any end to it. I have a hard time seeing her advancing any agenda.


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