2016 US Presidential Election

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KnightExemplar
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:29 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:It's odd that voting is still this problematic. Making it reliable doesn't seem like it should be that hard.


Its because of the big push for paper-ballots this year, which means all of the voting precincts needed to purchase scanning-machines instead of the old smartcard-based voting terminals.

The smartcard terminals were old and crappy, but they worked for sure and there were a lot of them. But they didn't leave a paper-trail. Scanner-types can still be theoretically hacked, but if an issue comes up (ie: Exit-poll mismatch), they can pull out the paper-ballots and manually count them by hand. So there's a big push for scanners.

I'm betting that most places couldn't afford more than one of these scanners (and to be fair, when it was working, it definitely looked like a fast process). I used the scanner in the Primaries and it was cake.

----------

The election judges said that it seemed like more people were voting this year, but at the same time, with only one scanner... maybe it just seemed like there were more people because the lines were longer. It is a new year, and voter-turnout tends to increase when the incumbent is leaving. So I'd expect lines to overall just be longer today.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:35 pm UTC

We used diebold touchscreens previously here in MD, but they were very unpopular. Security holes, supposedly. I do know that the touch screens were garbage. Often they had a huge offset, so you could accidentally select the wrong thing. Easily fixable, of course, and with random ordering, statistically not a big deal, but I could see why that upset people.

Paper trails are good, I suppose. Can't argue with that. And it does seem like we're on track to have a high turnout election. Early voting was a lot higher in many states, and we also have a bit more awareness from the primary seasons being exciting longer than usual. So, maybe that's boosting overall turnout as well. Participation is good, I suppose, although the lines do suck.

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Thesh
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:42 pm UTC

In California we always used paper ballots, either punch or optical, without too many issues, but like you said that's because they didn't have to rush them. I personally like the ballot-printer type systems, as it combines the accessibility of touch screen with a paper trail.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:46 pm UTC

Bubble-in scantrons here. I like it, feels like I'm back in high school.

...Not that I especially enjoyed high school...
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Diadem
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Diadem » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:37 pm UTC

Fun fact about voting via voting machine:

In the Netherlands we used to vote electronically, but this was actually banned by the supreme court in 2009. This reason for this was security concerns, but not in the way you'd perhaps expect. Though there was some worry about fraud (the lack of paper trail was a concern), the main problem was that votes weren't secure. Like every other piece of electronics, voting machines give of radiation. With the right equipment, you can use this radiation to measure changes in the machine. It turned out to be possible to see what someone was voting by measuring this radiation. That wasn't just theoretical either, scientists actually managed to do this in real life, from outside the actual building.

Today, some politicians are talking about reintroducing voting machines. It's possible to shield their radiation, but it's apparently harder than it seems. To make electronic voting safe, you'd need a lot of security around their storage and transportation and stuff like that. Apparently this problem still hasn't quite been solved.

It's kinda weird though, to see other countries happily use voting machines apparently without any issues, while our supreme court has banned them.
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Tyndmyr
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:42 pm UTC

Oh yeah, that actually makes a great deal of sense.

Usually when people in the US get fussed about security, it's fraud in the sense of changing votes somehow, not so much in the tracking. Many states still allow you to take selfies with your vote, apparently. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/us/politics/ballot-selfies.html

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Thesh
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:43 pm UTC

Yeah, that's Van Eck Phreaking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Eck_phreaking

Securing it is possible if you follow the guidelines, but it's not something you want to leave up to legislators. In the US at least we don't really pay attention to that kind of stuff, and states tend to go for what's cheap and on the market already, so there is like zero thought put into security at all. It is a good point, however, and one I hadn't heard brought up before.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:41 am UTC

It's all over, folks.

Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the winner of every presidential election since Eisenhower, has gone for Trump.

Been nice knowing you!

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:45 am UTC

[obligatory XKCD comic goes here]
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ahammel » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:01 am UTC

Y'all could save everybody a lot of anxiety if you just gave Florida back to Spain.
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Thesh
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:07 am UTC

Or just ditch the electoral college.
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Deva
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Deva » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:11 am UTC

Or call Bugs Bunny.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby duckshirt » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:25 am UTC

It's happening...
lol everything matters
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:38 am UTC

I told you.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:27 am UTC

I TOLD YOU. YOU FUCKING MURDERED ME

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CorruptUser
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:33 am UTC

Florida, Georgia, and NC are about to go Trump (I'm using CNN). That's 60 electoral votes of the 103 more he needs. He just needs 43 from the rest of the states. Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16) look like they may go Trump, as does Arizona (11). Just needs 6 more after than. Oh shit, Nevada has 6 votes...

Edit: NH (4) also looks like it may go Trump. Idaho (4) will probably go Trump, but not enough results are in to be worth anything.
Last edited by CorruptUser on Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:34 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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PolakoVoador
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PolakoVoador » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:34 am UTC

I will never not find this electoral votes system weird as hell.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby K-R » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:37 am UTC

What does 'too close to call' mean? I always just figured it meant they couldn't call it yet, but on 538's tracker states are showing up as 'too close to call' at specific times?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:40 am UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:I will never not find this electoral votes system weird as hell.


It made sense for a dirt poor country in the days before telegraphs. Just send a simple "yay" or "nay", and your vote's worth is based on a combination of your population and simply being a state that was agreed upon after intense negotiation. If it works while broken, don't fix it...

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CorruptUser
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:42 am UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:I will never not find this electoral votes system weird as hell.


It made sense for a dirt poor country in the days before telegraphs. Just send a simple "yay" or "nay", and your vote's worth is based on a combination of your population and simply being a state that was agreed upon after intense negotiation. If it works while broken, don't fix it...

K-R wrote:What does 'too close to call' mean? I always just figured it meant they couldn't call it yet, but on 538's tracker states are showing up as 'too close to call' at specific times?


That usually means that either the remaining districts in a state could possibly change the vote one way or the other, or the votes that came in are with a fraction of a percent and by law they have to check the ballots just in case.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby trpmb6 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:43 am UTC

New york times just posted they give trump a 91 percent chance to win.

Mic drop

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PolakoVoador
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PolakoVoador » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:46 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
PolakoVoador wrote:I will never not find this electoral votes system weird as hell.


It made sense for a dirt poor country in the days before telegraphs. Just send a simple "yay" or "nay", and your vote's worth is based on a combination of your population and simply being a state that was agreed upon after intense negotiation. If it works while broken, don't fix it...

I'm sure it had very good reasons to be put in practice, but that was 200 years ago. And I'm not sure I would say "it works" for a system that can elect someone with less than half of the votes.

EDIT: but of course, I'm not from the US, so it might just be that I'm not used with the idea and it's not really that bad.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:55 am UTC

Hey now, we once had a guy with 39.9% of the vote, and even if every single vote he didn't get went to one other person, he still would've won. And he turned out to be the greatest president we ever had!

Of course, the result of that election was a war in which more Americans died than in all other wars combined, but hey, nothing's perfect.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:56 am UTC

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:58 am UTC

Not my fault. I didn't vote.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PolakoVoador » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:04 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Hey now, we once had a guy with 39.9% of the vote, and even if every single vote he didn't get went to one other person, he still would've won. And he turned out to be the greatest president we ever had!

Of course, the result of that election was a war in which more Americans died than in all other wars combined, but hey, nothing's perfect.



Hey, Thesh, didn't you once calculated the minimum percentage of the vote possible to still be elected president? I'm curious now about this number

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Thesh
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:08 am UTC

ConMan wrote:
Thesh wrote:Time to learn GLPK so I can figure out the minimum number popular vote Obama needed to win in 2012 assuming every other vote remained unchanged.

Spoiler:
ve = a0*55 + a1*9 + a2*7 + a3*3 + a4*3 + a5*29 + a6*4 + a7*20 + a8*6 + a9*4 + a10*10 + a11*11 + a12*16 + a13*10 + a14*6 + a15*4 + a16*14 + a17*5 + a18*29 + a19*18 + a20*7 + a21*20 + a22*4 + a23*3 + a24*13 + a25*12 + a26*10

vp = a0*4839959 + a1*1185244 + a2*634900 + a3*165485 + a4*21382 + a5*4163448 + a6*121016 + a7*2135217 + a8*730618 + a9*292277 + a10*971870 + a11*1188461 + a12*2115257 + a13*1320226 + a14*463568 + a15*329919 + a16*1478750 + a17*335789 + a18*2490497 + a19*2661438 + a20*754176 + a21*2680435 + a22*157205 + a23*92699 + a24*1822523 + a25*1290671 + a26*1407967

an ∈ [0,1]

Should be pretty simple - I just need to minimize vp such that ve >= 270

The answer is apparently 27730169, with a = [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1]. Use this power wisely.


The numbers are one plus the number of votes Romney won in each state Obama won. That's the total minimum vote Obama needed. I'm assuming Wikipedia is correct on this, which there is no way it's not been verified a million times already.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:09 am UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:Hey now, we once had a guy with 39.9% of the vote, and even if every single vote he didn't get went to one other person, he still would've won. And he turned out to be the greatest president we ever had!

Of course, the result of that election was a war in which more Americans died than in all other wars combined, but hey, nothing's perfect.



Hey, Thesh, didn't you once calculated the minimum percentage of the vote possible to still be elected president? I'm curious now about this number

33%. Win every state with 3 electoral votes by 1 vote. Technically, you only need 50 votes to win since winning is based off actual voters. As turnout drops, the skewing increases.

538 is calling the Senate for Republicans. Not epic collapse but pretty bad given who was running.
Last edited by sardia on Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:10 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:09 am UTC

NO BRADLEY EFFECT. NO BRADLEY EFFECT YOU FUCKS YOU FUCKING FUCKS

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:20 am UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:NO BRADLEY EFFECT. NO BRADLEY EFFECT YOU FUCKS YOU FUCKING FUCKS

538 called out pollsters for herding to a magical 4 point Clinton lead yesterday.

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CorruptUser
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:26 am UTC

Welp, world's ending. Anyone want to join me on a nice, calming looting? I'm fairly strong; I'll carry the televisions and you can hold on to the jewelry, if you'll agree we split everything in the end.

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sardia
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:30 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Welp, world's ending. Anyone want to join me on a nice, calming looting? I'm fairly strong; I'll carry the televisions and you can hold on to the jewelry, if you'll agree we split everything in the end.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/ ... first-term
Economically, Trump is gonna hurt, like a slow poison. I'm gonna have to fire more people than normal to make up for the recession. Less trade=smaller economy. Everything else awful about Trump is less important and can heal.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:31 am UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:NO BRADLEY EFFECT. NO BRADLEY EFFECT YOU FUCKS YOU FUCKING FUCKS


Its not that, its about the electoral college.

It looks like Clinton is going to win the popular vote by wide margins, especially now as California's votes are counted. But winning like 65% of New York and 70% of California doesn't matter.

sardia wrote:Economically, Trump is gonna hurt, like a slow poison. I'm gonna have to fire more people than normal to make up for the recession. Less trade=smaller economy. Everything else awful about Trump is less important and can heal.


Too early honestly. We have no idea how Trump will act as President frankly. Trump is extremely shallow, and might even let A Wet Rag Stuffed Into a Tailpipe lead everything.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby WilliamLehnsherr » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:32 am UTC

Dammit, America. Why do you always do this?

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sardia
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:35 am UTC

Everything else requires congress, or Trump's sustained attention. Being anti trade is his bread and butter(besides raping and stealing from charities) and only requires he unilaterally drops out of trade.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:39 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
PolakoVoador wrote:I will never not find this electoral votes system weird as hell.


It made sense for a dirt poor country in the days before telegraphs. Just send a simple "yay" or "nay", and your vote's worth is based on a combination of your population and simply being a state that was agreed upon after intense negotiation. If it works while broken, don't fix it...


On the contrary. The system is as it is because we've decided that States have power.

The United States is closer to the European Union than any of its individual countries. Each of our states have their own police, their own military (see National Guard), and even their own education system. True, our governors work very closely together to standardize things (see Common Core), but any hint of losing "state power" is rebelled by a good chunk of the states.

Removing the electoral college means cutting out even more power from the States. And remember, the Bundy Militia were just acquitted a few weeks ago. So a lot of people are still pro-State rights and distrustful of the Federal Government.

sardia wrote:Everything else requires congress, or Trump's sustained attention. Being anti trade is his bread and butter(besides raping and stealing from charities) and only requires he unilaterally drops out of trade.


I don't quite understand how this would work practically.

Lets say Trump wants to stop applying NAFTA, how does he even begin to do this? A lot of NAFTA is about a tariff system that we share with Mexico and Canada. How much goods are taxed as they cross the border. I'm not sure how President Trump even stops this.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:45 am UTC

Allow me to ease your nerves with the "fuck" song.

If you'd like to sing along, it's in 8/4 time and is a 1 4 5 1 progression. Because I'm lazy that's why!

Fuck Fuuuuck Fuck, Fukfukfukfuk Fuck
Fuck Fuuuuck Fuck, Fukfukfukfuk Fuck
Fuck Fuuuuck Fuck, Fukfukfukfuk Fuck
Fuck Fuuuuck Fuck, Fukfukfukfuk Fuck

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:55 am UTC

I have extra room at my place in Canada if an American refugee family is looking for a place to stay.

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Dr34m(4+(h3r
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:57 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I have extra room at my place in Canada if an American refugee family is looking for a place to stay.


I'm not a family, I'm a trans individual who would rather not get re-educated a second time.

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sardia
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
I have extra room at my place in Canada if an American refugee family is looking for a place to stay.
I'm not a family, I'm a trans individual who would rather not get re-educated a second time.
Damage control time:
Will there be a backlash against Trump in 2018?
Not likely, even if there was, all you're doing is rewinning Democratically held seats. No progress in stopping Trump there.

What should I do?
Look for a new job,in a blue state if the financial calculus makes sense. (Yes this makes the democratic packing into urban cities worse, hence wasting more votes, but this is to help you, not the party overall) Otherwise, stay put and vote again. It's gonna be a long 4-8 years.


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