2016 US Presidential Election

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LaserGuy
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:36 pm UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-forum-idUSKBN1431KU

Not all is gloom and doom in Trumpland. But Uber can go ahead and fuck itself.


Maybe Elon Musk can convince Trump to build the hyperloop if it uses workers from the Rust Belt and is renamed the Trumploop.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:40 pm UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-forum-idUSKBN1431KU

Not all is gloom and doom in Trumpland. But Uber can go ahead and fuck itself.

Why Uber? Why would anyone not want to join Trump's council? You're either gonna get less taxes, less regulation, or things remain the same. At no point do things get worse. And you get Trump's brand of approval for when you fuck US workers over. Like the carrier deal.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:04 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Why Uber? Why would anyone not want to join Trump's council? You're either gonna get less taxes, less regulation, or things remain the same. At no point do things get worse. And you get Trump's brand of approval for when you fuck US workers over. Like the carrier deal.


Agreed. I would cheerfully work for a Trump administration or whatever, even.

Telling someone to fuck off might feel satisfying, but it gets you exactly zero power, and is impractical as hell.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Drumheller769 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:06 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Maybe Elon Musk can convince Trump to build the hyperloop if it uses workers from the Rust Belt and is renamed the Trumploop.


You joke about that....but I can see that conversation happening.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:07 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-forum-idUSKBN1431KU

Not all is gloom and doom in Trumpland. But Uber can go ahead and fuck itself.


Maybe Elon Musk can convince Trump to build the hyperloop if it uses workers from the Rust Belt and is renamed the Trumploop.


No, it'll be named the HyperMegaTrump! And instead of transport things, it'll be a giant walking robot, with lasers and machine guns, and cannons that shoot bald eagles! Is it a cannon that is aimed at bald eagles or is it a cannon whose ammo is bald eagles? The answer is "yes".

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Thu Dec 15, 2016 3:57 pm UTC

Don't assume that Americans are united in hating Russia. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/al ... san-issue/
Public opinions of a country are heavily influenced by the president. They tend to follow whatever's the new administration's stance is. Especially the president's party. You can see how Obama increased opinions of Cuba. You can expect the same from Trump. The biggest reason is that Trump has bet again and again that GOP politicians will be spineless, and he's won that bet each time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how ... ment-data/
Trump could defund data gathering agencies to the point where they collapse or are ineffective. That would give them cover to ignore climate change since there would be no data to prove otherwise. *
Canada’s conservative government eliminated their version of the long-form census in 2006, a move that was recently reversed, but which proved disastrous for statistical quality. “Canada’s response rate dropped dramatically and they could not publish data because it was such poor quality,” Poole said. “And that is the risk of what might happen if we make the American Community Survey voluntary.”
Note how easily statistical agencies collapsed from a simple budget cut.

*This is similar tactic to how the NRA hamstrings the CDC and ATF. Simple but effective.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Yakk » Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:14 pm UTC

That wasn't a budget cut as much as a "don't do X" order.
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Re: 2016 US President Trump

Postby sardia » Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:39 pm UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/us/po ... .html?_r=0
The Pentagon said on Friday it had issued a formal protest to Beijing demanding the return of an underwater drone seized by a Chinese warship in the South China Sea, an incident that risked increasing tensions in a region already fraught with great-power rivalries.
A Defense Department official said that the unmanned underwater vehicle was discovered missing on Thursday when the crew of the United States Navy vessel Bowditch tried to retrieve it.
The Bowditch, an oceanographic ship, was operating in international waters and carrying out scientific research, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe a potentially sensitive international incident.
American officials said they were still trying to determine whether the seizure was a low-level action taken by Chinese sailors who spotted the drone — or a strategic-level action ordered by more senior Chinese leaders.

The Chinese are hitting back for Trump's Taiwan call. Man, this isn't fair, Trump hasn't even taken office yet. Or are they assuming Obama will not take things too far, and they can still send a message to Trump?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby thunk » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:37 am UTC

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-going-to-gain-nearly-30000-more-votes-over-trump-in-new-york-city/

This error threw me for a loop when I was trying to compile county-level results.
It also shows that if we ever do switch to a national popular vote system, we're going to need a better way of counting votes (that means you, Albany). There would be utter chaos if Candidate X won the election only for it to be discovered a month later that 100k ballots were improperly omitted in a heavily Y-leaning district.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:07 am UTC

thunk wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-going-to-gain-nearly-30000-more-votes-over-trump-in-new-york-city/

This error threw me for a loop when I was trying to compile county-level results.
It also shows that if we ever do switch to a national popular vote system, we're going to need a better way of counting votes (that means you, Albany). There would be utter chaos if Candidate X won the election only for it to be discovered a month later that 100k ballots were improperly omitted in a heavily Y-leaning district.

Let's cross that bridge when we get there. For one thing, maybe they don't take much care about it because it doesn't really matter. If NY was gonna decide the presidency, then they'd probably actually try to secure the vote.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby thunk » Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:39 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
thunk wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-going-to-gain-nearly-30000-more-votes-over-trump-in-new-york-city/

This error threw me for a loop when I was trying to compile county-level results.
It also shows that if we ever do switch to a national popular vote system, we're going to need a better way of counting votes (that means you, Albany). There would be utter chaos if Candidate X won the election only for it to be discovered a month later that 100k ballots were improperly omitted in a heavily Y-leaning district.

Let's cross that bridge when we get there. For one thing, maybe they don't take much care about it because it doesn't really matter. If NY was gonna decide the presidency, then they'd probably actually try to secure the vote.


Of course, as linked, similar errors occur elsewhere. But New York seems to be particularly sloppy, they twerked their 2012 results until the following June.
Having 51 state+DC elections confines state-level problems to one state, and not the whole nation. But this in effect moves the problem of counting around from "national popular vote" is close to "pivotal state is close", as we saw in 2000--nobody really knows the actual vote count in Florida, even after a month of scrutiny.

All in all, it seems like NPV will require more national-level regulation of elections (as Lazar pointed out for other reasons), which may have good externalities.

Edit: With all of the caveats above, in the certified results Clinton has won 65,844,610 votes as compared to Trump's 62,979,636. (This is subject to New York's certification twerking; NC also has a few more votes on their certificate than on their "official" online results, and Indiana seems to have recently corrected an error that was on their certificate.)

The margin is very close to 2.1%, but the precise value depends on how you count write-ins that are reported by county boards but not in the state results. Including them will depress the value very slightly.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:01 pm UTC

thunk wrote:But New York seems to be particularly sloppy, they twerked their 2012 results until the following June.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:04 pm UTC

If ensuring easy access to voting was done similarly to enforcing a 21 drinking age, it might work. But that was done a 'long time' ago back when things made sense.

Are there many times when invoking "states' rights" doesn't mean sticking it to some group or another? Marijuana legalization is the only instance I can think of off the top of my head.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby thunk » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:26 pm UTC

Liri wrote:If ensuring easy access to voting was done similarly to enforcing a 21 drinking age, it might work. But that was done a 'long time' ago back when things made sense.

Are there many times when invoking "states' rights" doesn't mean sticking it to some group or another? Marijuana legalization is the only instance I can think of off the top of my head.


States/cities potentially not enforcing Trump's immigration/deportation policy seems to be the other relevant example.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:34 pm UTC

thunk wrote:
Liri wrote:If ensuring easy access to voting was done similarly to enforcing a 21 drinking age, it might work. But that was done a 'long time' ago back when things made sense.

Are there many times when invoking "states' rights" doesn't mean sticking it to some group or another? Marijuana legalization is the only instance I can think of off the top of my head.


States/cities potentially not enforcing Drumpf's immigration/deportation policy seems to be the other relevant example.

Well, that hasn't happened yet. :wink:

Yet. :|
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby thunk » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:41 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
thunk wrote:
Liri wrote:If ensuring easy access to voting was done similarly to enforcing a 21 drinking age, it might work. But that was done a 'long time' ago back when things made sense.

Are there many times when invoking "states' rights" doesn't mean sticking it to some group or another? Marijuana legalization is the only instance I can think of off the top of my head.


States/cities potentially not enforcing Drumpf's immigration/deportation policy seems to be the other relevant example.

Well, that hasn't happened yet. :wink:

Yet. :|

You might also add gun control (McDonald v. Chicago) and assisted suicide (e.g. Oregon).
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:28 am UTC

Liri wrote:Are there many times when invoking "states' rights" doesn't mean sticking it to some group or another? Marijuana legalization is the only instance I can think of off the top of my head.

I view that as a way to weasel out of taking a position since the issue is not that partisan. If they really were for states rights they would address it at the federal level.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Sun Dec 18, 2016 5:47 pm UTC

https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/810326546258989056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw I found the summary of the china drone stuff amusing although it feels a bit weird to post tweets.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:03 pm UTC

PeteP wrote:https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/810326546258989056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw I found the summary of the china drone stuff amusing although it feels a bit weird to post tweets.


Wh... why does he want to tell China to keep the drone? I mean, often when I see something he's said I think "that's stupid and misguided", this time I'm just baffled about what's going on in his head.

China: "Um, ok! Thanks!"

EDIT: Maybe it's a present to make up for the Taiwan stuff?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby addams » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:06 pm UTC

PeteP wrote:https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/810326546258989056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw I found the summary of the china drone stuff amusing although it feels a bit weird to post tweets.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:29 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Wh... why does he want to tell China to keep the drone? I mean, often when I see something he's said I think "that's stupid and misguided", this time I'm just baffled about what's going on in his head.
You're not used to streams of consciousness from your politicians. I'm speaking about that moment when your inner 2 year old tries to get out, before an older you shoves a stopper in its mouth. Trump's inner 2 year old is involved in the conversation. It's disconcerting.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:33 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
PeteP wrote:https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/810326546258989056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw I found the summary of the china drone stuff amusing although it feels a bit weird to post tweets.


Wh... why does he want to tell China to keep the drone? I mean, often when I see something he's said I think "that's stupid and misguided", this time I'm just baffled about what's going on in his head.

China: "Um, ok! Thanks!"

EDIT: Maybe it's a present to make up for the Taiwan stuff?

What's going on in Trump's head is he was trying to look tough on China, when diplomacy was a million times more effective, and the "keep it" is just a way to signal that he doesn't care about the issue so he can save face.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:36 pm UTC

I assumed he didn't pay attention and didn't know they were giving it back.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:51 pm UTC

PeteP wrote:I assumed he didn't pay attention and didn't know they were giving it back.


That would make sense, that was the bit that confused me.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ObsessoMom » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:49 pm UTC

The drone was gathering data on water temperature and salinity--i.e., measures of climate change. Why would Trump want to see the experts he loathes get their scientific tool back?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Zamfir » Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:34 am UTC

Heh, no, those are not for climate research. There's a reason those ships are operated by the Pentagon - they're charting the oceans for the navy.

Temperature and salinity clines have an effect on sonar, so they are mapping places where a submarine can hide.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Diadem » Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:11 am UTC

Did Trump really write 'unpresidented' or is that photoshop? His tweet currently says 'unprecendented' but that could have been edited I guess (could it? Can you edit tweets? I have no idea).
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:13 am UTC

I read he deleted the old one and replaced it with the corrected one.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Angua » Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:50 am UTC

Apparently it was up for an hour and a half.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:19 pm UTC

For the record, archive.is can archive a page on demand, if you want to prove that a tweet said what you claim it said.

(You don't need photoshop to lie about it, as you can directly edit what your browser displays and take a genuine screenshot of that.)
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby PeteP » Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:20 pm UTC

Though that requires predicting that something will be removed but it is probably safe to assume for something like this. But this one is still in the google cache https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mXVJK-52oRwJ:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/810099766063493120+&cd=1&hl=de&ct=clnk&gl=de

Not that it really matters that he made a typo although it is an amusing one in this case.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:39 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Mutex wrote:Wh... why does he want to tell China to keep the drone? I mean, often when I see something he's said I think "that's stupid and misguided", this time I'm just baffled about what's going on in his head.
You're not used to streams of consciousness from your politicians. I'm speaking about that moment when your inner 2 year old tries to get out, before an older you shoves a stopper in its mouth. Trump's inner 2 year old is involved in the conversation. It's disconcerting.


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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:18 pm UTC

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dem ... -electors/
TLDR: Democrats need to focus on winning elections, not trying to create a constitutional crisis via the electoral college.
For Democrats to find success in 2018 will probably require them to compete in a lot of places. That’s because it’s not clear whether the shift in demographic voting patterns that took place between 2012 and 2016 will accelerate or reverse itself. In states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, there are a fair number of people who voted for Obama in 2012 but Trump in 2016, and they might be inclined to give Democrats another chance if they feel that Trump isn’t upholding his promises. It’s also possible, however, that Democrats will be competitive in wealthy suburban districts in Sun Belt states such as Texas, Georgia and Arizona that were once reliably red. Democrats were woefully unprepared for some of these opportunities last month. For instance, they didn’t even field a House candidate in Texas’s 32nd Congressional District in suburban Dallas, even though it Clinton carried the district in a major reversal from 2012.

I didn't realize just how crappy the Democrat's down ballot races were. This is even worse than I expected. They left a GOP House rep run unopposed in a district Democrats won. That's just infuriating. Yes I know there's some ego shit going on, since nobody likes losing, so the best candidates only run when they think they can win. Kinda a catch-22. It's a bad mindset either way.

PS Notice how nobody even mentioned any positions or campaign promises? Because that's not how you win political fights, this is all logistics.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:58 pm UTC

Obama said pretty much the same thing on NPR today or yesterday.

You're also not going to think you need to tone-down any platform issues if you won a pretty solid popular vote majority.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby freezeblade » Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:49 pm UTC

Popular vote margins (by percentage and total) In the past 10 Election Cycles (via. wikipedia)
  • 2016 Clinton V. Trump*: 2.10% (2,864,974)
  • 2012 Obama V. Romney: 3.86% (4,982,296)
  • 2008 Obama V. McCain: 7.27% (9,550,193)
  • 2004 Bush V. Kerry: 2.46% (3,012,171)
  • 2000 Gore V. Bush*: 0.51% (543,816)
  • 1996 Clinton V. Dole: 8.51% (8,201,370)
  • 1992 Clinton V. Bush: 5.56% (5,805,256)
  • 1988 Bush V. Dukakis: 7.72% (7,077,121)
  • 1984 Reagan V. Mondale: 18.21% (16,878,120)
  • 1980 Reagan V. Carter: 9.74% (8,423,115)
*Won electoral despite popular vote loss

Yes, it was close, closer than most elections in recent memory (besides 2000, but that's a whole different can of worms). However, the margin, in raw votes, is 5.26 times larger than runner up in the same category, which, interestingly enough, is the 2000 election. Also of note is that the previous time that there was a electoral vote vs. popular vote discrepancy (before 2000) is 1888.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:42 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:Popular vote margins (by percentage and total) In the past 10 Election Cycles (via. wikipedia)
  • 2016 Clinton V. Trump*: 2.10% (2,864,974)
  • 2012 Obama V. Romney: 3.86% (4,982,296)
  • 2008 Obama V. McCain: 7.27% (9,550,193)
  • 2004 Bush V. Kerry: 2.46% (3,012,171)
  • 2000 Gore V. Bush*: 0.51% (543,816)
  • 1996 Clinton V. Dole: 8.51% (8,201,370)
  • 1992 Clinton V. Bush: 5.56% (5,805,256)
  • 1988 Bush V. Dukakis: 7.72% (7,077,121)
  • 1984 Reagan V. Mondale: 18.21% (16,878,120)
  • 1980 Reagan V. Carter: 9.74% (8,423,115)
*Won electoral despite popular vote loss

Yes, it was close, closer than most elections in recent memory (besides 2000, but that's a whole different can of worms). However, the margin, in raw votes, is 5.26 times larger than runner up in the same category, which, interestingly enough, is the 2000 election. Also of note is that the previous time that there was a electoral vote vs. popular vote discrepancy (before 2000) is 1888.

You need to readjust for population growth; point to a base year so we can discuss margins in real terms instead of nominal(to take ideas from economics)

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby ucim » Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:07 pm UTC

sardia wrote:You need to readjust for population growth; point to a base year so we can discuss margins in real terms instead of nominal(to take ideas from economics)
Looking at percentages should be sufficient. I suppose you could adjust for changing demographics, but I'm not sure that's warranted.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby freezeblade » Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:39 pm UTC

hence why I referred mainly to the margin in percentage (percentage to the total amount of votes), and the total number of raw votes secondary.
Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

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trpmb6
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby trpmb6 » Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:03 am UTC

freezeblade wrote:hence why I referred mainly to the margin in percentage (percentage to the total amount of votes), and the total number of raw votes secondary.


Wikipedia already has all this data accounted for and it controls for population growth. This data was already discussed in this forum weeks ago.

And has been mentioned before if the election was bases on popular vote the candidates would have campaigned differently.

Lets face it. Hillary lost because she surrounded herself with lots of "yesmen" (pardon the misogynistic term) who were very eager to pop the champagne way too early. I mean she didn't even go to wisconson... How did they miss the polls in ohio that told her the counties Obama carried in the 65%+ range had completely flipped to Trump 65%+? That's not a minor error.

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sardia
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:05 am UTC

trpmb6 wrote:
freezeblade wrote:hence why I referred mainly to the margin in percentage (percentage to the total amount of votes), and the total number of raw votes secondary.


Wikipedia already has all this data accounted for and it controls for population growth. This data was already discussed in this forum weeks ago.

And has been mentioned before if the election was bases on popular vote the candidates would have campaigned differently.

Lets face it. Hillary lost because she surrounded herself with lots of "yesmen" (pardon the misogynistic term) who were very eager to pop the champagne way too early. I mean she didn't even go to wisconson... How did they miss the polls in ohio that told her the counties Obama carried in the 65%+ range had completely flipped to Trump 65%+? That's not a minor error.
When did Hillary ignore Ohio?
You're mixing up criticisms of Hillary's campaign. She didn't lose because of Ohio. She made a lot of mistakes, 'Not seeing Ohio was tilted against her' is not one of them. You literally have the benefit of hindsight, you could at least come up with factual criticisms that exceed 50%.


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