British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Fractal_Tangent » Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:11 pm UTC

Off topic about Trump-ness
Spoiler:
HES wrote:
Lucrece wrote:I'm just tired of reading about people who seriously think Trump stands a chance in national elections just because the media made a circus of him for ratings and gave his campaign free publicity for batshit crazy primaries.

That's exactly the attitude that will let him in. The political climate is a mess right now, Trump is a threat, and should be treated as such. Underestimate him at your (and everyone's) peril.


I'm not sure what part of 'sweeping to be the Republican candidate by a long way and proving everyone wrong who has doubted him so far' doesn't make him a threat? I'm really not of the opinion that I can lie back and hope this whole Trump thing blows over, especially as the voters in the West seem to be having a year or so of 'let's hit back at the establishment regardless of consequences' bullshit.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:35 pm UTC

BattleMoose wrote:I don't know what or why you are doing what you are. This has to be a personal vendetta at this point. But if you payed attention to what I have written, I am essentially adopting the consensus view that the meta analysis of the peer reviewed literature identified.

By saying that "It's impossible to predict the future" and "Restricting immigration will obviously have a positive economic effect," you aim to express the consensus that "the disadvantages from a Brexit are likely to outweigh the economic advantages [albeit with] only moderate net costs of a Brexit in the lower single digit area in relation to GDP"?

Also, let's be clear: they don't identify that view as a consensus. They identify it as a mainstream view. Lots of views are mainstream without being consensus.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Lucrece » Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:25 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Lucrece wrote:I'm just tired of reading about people who seriously think Trump stands a chance in national elections just because the media made a circus of him for ratings and gave his campaign free publicity for batshit crazy primaries.

That's exactly the attitude that will let him in. The political climate is a mess right now, Trump is a threat, and should be treated as such. Underestimate him at your (and everyone's) peril.


Yeah, yeah, I know that's what progressive talking heads keep saying to fearmonger their base. There's always some cataclysmic prospect to keep people tuned into their answers so they can stay relevant with an audience and political influence.

Mitt Romney, who was decidedly less batshit crazy, didn't shit on Mexicans (in fact, had roots there) as a the largest growing minority vote in the US, didn't comment on women's appearance, and didn't look like a spray-tanned hairy scrotum , couldn't even take the election away from Obama at his lowest point of popularity. A super WASP-y guy who couldn't defeat the socialist Kenyan dude.

And somehow you expect that Trump will fare any better against a white woman who was married to one of the most popular presidents in the country.

Mhm, ok. You can lose sleep if you want. I won't.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:18 am UTC

Well, Boris has broken cover.

So far as I can tell, he's claiming we shouldn't worry - we can retain access to the single market while giving less money to the EU, leaving the ECoJ, and introducing a points-based immigration system. Oh, and he also claims there is little appetite for another Scottish Independence referendum.

Well, good luck with that Boris - and I mean that sincerely.

There's a sort of catch-22 here in that if Boris doesn't win the leadership and Britain doesn't get all those things, he'll be able to pop up and blame whoever was in charge of the negotiations - thereby absolving himself of any blame for creating this mess. So we have to vote for him in order to prove him wrong...

Joy.

---

Meanwhile, sterling has fallen again in Monday morning early trading, once again returning to levels not seen since Thatcher was PM.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:05 am UTC

Frankly, the best case scenario I'm hoping for now is Boris becomes PM, and we get a deal that is much like Norway's deal, in that it includes the single market and free movement of people. We'll have to pay into the EU to get that though. And we won't be able to vote on anything. Hard to see the benefit.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Derek » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:19 am UTC

Mutex wrote:Frankly, the best case scenario I'm hoping for now is Boris becomes PM, and we get a deal that is much like Norway's deal, in that it includes the single market and free movement of people. We'll have to pay into the EU to get that though. And we won't be able to vote on anything. Hard to see the benefit.

The best case scenario is that plus Britain gets to make favorable trade deals with non-European countries (most likely Commonwealth) that they have not been able to make while in the EU.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:42 am UTC

Mutex wrote:Frankly, the best case scenario I'm hoping for now is Boris becomes PM, and we get a deal that is much like Norway's deal, in that it includes the single market and free movement of people. We'll have to pay into the EU to get that though. And we won't be able to vote on anything. Hard to see the benefit.

Can't see that happening with Boris as PM. Unrestricted immigration will be a political red-line.

For your scenario to occur, Boris would have to become PM, negotiations would drag on and we'd fail to come to an agreement, the economy would crash, Boris would be voted out, and a new government voted in with a mandate to sort the frigging mess out by any means necessary.

And, yes, we probably will negotiate better trade deals with a few nations than we have right now, but I'd be amazed if, overall, because of our plight, non-EU countries didn't take the opportunity to negotiate deals better for themselves than for us. Every country is ultimately self-serving after all and we only have so many expert negotiators on our staff; They can't be everywhere at once and time is not on our side.

And, for those that care about such things, while France et. al. were blocking TTIP, we'll almost certainly be forced to adopt it as part of our trade negotiations with the US. And TTIP is effectively a loss of sovereignty.

(Which is why sovereignty is such a nebulous concept, and why it's simplistic to say we have strictly less of it inside the EU than outside of it.)

---

Many companies are likely to impose a hiring freeze following Britain's vote to leave the European Union, according to a leading business group.

The Institute of Directors (IoD) surveyed 1,000 of its members and found that a quarter planned to freeze recruitment and 5% planned to cut jobs. Only a third planned to hire at the same rate as previously.

Almost two-thirds said the vote was negative for their business.

"We can't sugar-coat this - many of our members are feeling anxious," said Simon Walker, director-general of the IoD. "A majority of business leaders think the vote for Brexit is bad for them, and as a result plans for investment and hiring are being put on hold or scaled back."


This isn't a game. British workers are going to suffer as a result of this decision.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby sardia » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:48 am UTC

Lucrece wrote:
HES wrote:
Lucrece wrote:I'm just tired of reading about people who seriously think Trump stands a chance in national elections just because the media made a circus of him for ratings and gave his campaign free publicity for batshit crazy primaries.

That's exactly the attitude that will let him in. The political climate is a mess right now, Trump is a threat, and should be treated as such. Underestimate him at your (and everyone's) peril.

Yeah, yeah, I know that's what progressive talking heads keep saying to fearmonger their base. There's always some cataclysmic prospect to keep people tuned into their answers so they can stay relevant with an audience and political influence.
Mitt Romney, who was decidedly less batshit crazy, didn't shit on Mexicans (in fact, had roots there) as a the largest growing minority vote in the US, didn't comment on women's appearance, and didn't look like a spray-tanned hairy scrotum , couldn't even take the election away from Obama at his lowest point of popularity. A super WASP-y guy who couldn't defeat the socialist Kenyan dude.
And somehow you expect that Trump will fare any better against a white woman who was married to one of the most popular presidents in the country.
Mhm, ok. You can lose sleep if you want. I won't.

There are troubling trends (for Democrats) that we discussed over in the US election thread. Off the top of my head, Pennsylvania, a tipping point (aka important) state has been trending less and less Democratic in each election. In addition, the latest demographic data(which heavily influences voting patterns) show there are far more white people(aka they still matter) than previously indicated. All of these are related, and point to potential trouble.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Lucrece » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:03 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Lucrece wrote:
HES wrote:
Lucrece wrote:I'm just tired of reading about people who seriously think Trump stands a chance in national elections just because the media made a circus of him for ratings and gave his campaign free publicity for batshit crazy primaries.

That's exactly the attitude that will let him in. The political climate is a mess right now, Trump is a threat, and should be treated as such. Underestimate him at your (and everyone's) peril.

Yeah, yeah, I know that's what progressive talking heads keep saying to fearmonger their base. There's always some cataclysmic prospect to keep people tuned into their answers so they can stay relevant with an audience and political influence.
Mitt Romney, who was decidedly less batshit crazy, didn't shit on Mexicans (in fact, had roots there) as a the largest growing minority vote in the US, didn't comment on women's appearance, and didn't look like a spray-tanned hairy scrotum , couldn't even take the election away from Obama at his lowest point of popularity. A super WASP-y guy who couldn't defeat the socialist Kenyan dude.
And somehow you expect that Trump will fare any better against a white woman who was married to one of the most popular presidents in the country.
Mhm, ok. You can lose sleep if you want. I won't.

There are troubling trends (for Democrats) that we discussed over in the US election thread. Off the top of my head, Pennsylvania, a tipping point (aka important) state has been trending less and less Democratic in each election. In addition, the latest demographic data(which heavily influences voting patterns) show there are far more white people(aka they still matter) than previously indicated. All of these are related, and point to potential trouble.



How is more white people potentially trouble? lol

You do realize the Democratic party and the vast majority of its elites are white as well, right? And why shouldn't they matter? You shouldn't be trying to circumvent the vote of undesirable white people; you should be trying to understand and influence the way they vote like any other demographic.

While Pennsylvania leans red, states like Florida are leaning blue. Allow enough demographic shifts from immigration in California and most of the South, and Republican rule is doomed at the rate the Hispanic population, especially Mexicans, is developing in the US. These are generations worth of new Democrat voters unless Republicans make a short term change of platform and court Hispanics on social conservatism since many of these Hispanic immigrants are devout Catholics.

More young people are going to college, which are decidedly leftist in their bent. This reflects on the general values of college graduates. So you have a dying red state population while a tide of blue will become our next voting bloc.

It'd only be faster if liberals weren't so intent on alienating white people on their identity politics crusades. You wouldn't be losing the union votes largely manned by low/middle class white workers now being courted by Republicans. The Republican party could be made utterly irrelevant in no time.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Zamfir » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:42 am UTC


Keep that stuff in the proper thread, please. If we don't keep them contained, US elections tend to ooze over evey other topic.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby K-R » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:42 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:I don't know what or why you are doing what you are. This has to be a personal vendetta at this point. But if you payed attention to what I have written, I am essentially adopting the consensus view that the meta analysis of the peer reviewed literature identified. It is an examination of the body of human knowledge on the subject. It is exactly the thing that we should be referring to if we want to know about the thing that it is talking about!
So you're citing a study to back up your viewpoint only because that study acknowledges that your viewpoint exists?

I don't think that's how it works.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby BattleMoose » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:49 am UTC

So you're citing a study to back up your viewpoint only because that study acknowledges that your viewpoint exists?


No. I am adopting the consensus view that the study identifies as a result of a meta analysis of the peer reviewed literature. This is exactly how its supposed to work.

Perhaps you would like to elucidate, how you could have an issue with this?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Diadem » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:20 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:
So you're citing a study to back up your viewpoint only because that study acknowledges that your viewpoint exists?


No. I am adopting the consensus view that the study identifies as a result of a meta analysis of the peer reviewed literature. This is exactly how its supposed to work.

Perhaps you would like to elucidate, how you could have an issue with this?

Your original quote was, as far as I can tell:
BattleMoose wrote:Based on the peer reviewed literature the economic effect of a Brexit could be positive but probably a GDP drop of between 1-3% of GDP. With greater autonomy on spending, I don't think the economic future is even remotely that bleak.

So your claim that the economic effect of a Brexit could be positive. Then you admit that the mainstream view is a 1-3% drop, but immediately go on to say that you don't think it will be that bad.

As proof for this you cite a study that mentions this 1-3% mainstream view, but goes on to say that they think it'll be worse.

Now you're backpedaling into saying that the mainstream view is probably correct. Fine (And to be fair, your original post could be interpreted in that way I suppose, though I'd say you have phrased it extremely poorly then). But then what did you need that cite for, and what are you arguing against in the first place?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby BattleMoose » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:29 am UTC

So your claim that the economic effect of a Brexit could be positive. Then you admit that the mainstream view is a 1-3% drop


More than a few of the studies referenced project the possibility of a positive economic impact of a Brexit. The consensus view is that there will be a 1-3% drop. This is directly from the meta analysis. There is no contradiction here. The uncertainties are large as I have been at pains to constantly state.

But then what did you need that cite for, and what are you arguing against in the first place?


All the suggestions that a BREXIT WILL BE economic suicide or somehow moronic folly. It's possible. But by no means an assured outcome.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:06 am UTC

elasto wrote:
Mutex wrote:Frankly, the best case scenario I'm hoping for now is Boris becomes PM, and we get a deal that is much like Norway's deal, in that it includes the single market and free movement of people. We'll have to pay into the EU to get that though. And we won't be able to vote on anything. Hard to see the benefit.
Can't see that happening with Boris as PM. Unrestricted immigration will be a political red-line.

For your scenario to occur, Boris would have to become PM, negotiations would drag on and we'd fail to come to an agreement, the economy would crash, Boris would be voted out, and a new government voted in with a mandate to sort the frigging mess out by any means necessary.


Unrestricted immigration will be a political red line with whoever the next PM is. That, and a fixed point to invoke Article 50, will virtually be a necessity for success in the Tory leadership election.

However many people are looking for mechanisms to stop this, whether it be a leader with the spine to stand up and say "Too many bad things are happening already, let's not do this", or the Scottish legal challenge... the Tories are highly likely to pick a new leader much to the right of Cameron, who promises to drive through this slender referendum result into a permanent split, whatever the consequences.

Meanwhile, Boris is still living in cloud-cuckoo land, thinking of all these positive things we'll get without the EU.

Regarding that earlier article/comment regarding Cameron completely outmanouevring Boris by not invoking Article 50 himself... Boris can just stand, get elected, invoke it, then find scapegoats for all the consequences while banging the nationalism drum. He won't care about the consequences for anyone else.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:10 am UTC

Boris could never advocate anything as strong as sending people back to the land of their birth, thankfully. It would require him returning to the US.

(Unfortunately, it seems I can no longer jest that this move would "raise the average IQ of both countries" but, looking on the bright side, potentially Boris could be running for POTUS as early as 2030...)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby svenman » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:24 am UTC

I'm looking at the situation from the continent, so I'm not much of an expert on UK politics, but I'm getting a stronger and stronger impression that Johnson and his associates are desperately hoping for a situation to arise where it becomes possible for them to publicly revoke their position on Brexit without losing too much face and without giving Farage too much political ammunition. That's why they're playing for time.

Of course they know that their promises the UK would be able to have its cake and eat it too were nothing but hot air. They won't be able to deliver on that promise, they will just be looking for a way to pin the blame for that on someone else. Possible candidates: The EU itself (of course), the SNP or, in the best case, a possible strong pro-Remain swing in UK public opinion (we have signs of a beginning of that, but will it be enough?).
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:53 am UTC

Boris' article in the Telegraph this weekend: here

Some idiotic clown who thinks he's the next Churchill wrote:British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK. Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. This was a seismic campaign whose lessons must be learnt by politicians at home and abroad. We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees. We must pursue actively the one-nation policies that are among David Cameron’s fine legacy, such as his campaigns on the Living Wage and Life Chances. There is no doubt that many were speaking up for themselves.

But they were also speaking up for democracy, and the verdict of history will be that the British people got it right.


This reads more like a continuation of cake-and-eat-it rather than trying to revoke their position.

And he's already self-Blaired by trying to appeal to the judgement of history after doing something transparently going to be a disaster from the start...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:17 am UTC

Yup. While many of the other Brexiters had the honesty to come clean and u-turn on pre-referendum pledges, Boris decided to double-down and say we can have everything we want and nothing that we don't. He's (probably correctly) presuming that he won't get rumbled until deep into his premiership, if ever.

Meanwhile, Sterling continues to hit record lows. UK pensioners abroad are overnight getting 10% less pension each month. Before too long the pain will hit at home too, with businesses forced to pass on the price rise of raw materials. Within days, ordinary people will start feeling the pinch when they go fill up their cars at the pumps.

But it's all ok because immigration or something.

You know what? I hope the economy crashes hard over the next three months - and long before a new PM is appointed, let alone article 50 invoked, that MPs rise up and rebel, refusing to vote to leave.
Last edited by elasto on Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:29 am UTC, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:21 am UTC

The EU will always be blamed. Even after any divorce, it'd be "those people over there in the EU" or the apparent effects of the prior EU membetship1 as the rallying cry for whatever local group is trying to deflect responsibility.

The SNP siding (at the top, if not all across the grass-roots) for Remain means it is a trickier excuse to use. Yet it'd also ge tricky to blame UKIP who did push Leave, without destroying the fragile hold the Tories have on Leave-tending supporyers, from the bipartisan tolerance engineered to prevent such a UKIP-wards exodus.

It's always got the "national butthurt", of course. The undefinitive nature of the result, the bregretful voters (like one SNP-allied Leave-voter I saw who explained that he just couldn't have voted for Cameron's side after the dissapointment of the prior Scottish vote, even though pointex that way by the SNP leadership).

And nothing can be done until October, right? Cameron can't (likely won't?) negotiate anything. Got to wait for the successor. Then you can procrastinate.

The other possible delaying factor (a snap General Election, after the Conservatives/maybe Labour sort themselves out) probably isn't favoured, though. Backlash against the Tories (and Labour) is going to be big. UKIP will gain from non-bregretful Leavers who dislike their current party's non-commitment, but maybe if the Lib Dems (and/or some new Gang Of Four disaffected split from Labour?) can position themselves to catch disaffected Remainers from all sides? It's not as if they can be reasonably blamed for anything like as much of the trouble afflicting the other parties.

(It'll be interesting to know what the 4-6%, reportedly, of UKIP membets who voted Remain would do...)


1 During the first Cameron premiership, many many many problems (e.g. with the global downturn measures) were blamed upon 'the previous administration', i.e. Labour's Brown/Blair eras. It started to be called out as an excuse and died down. Only to arise as an excuse yet again in Cameron's second (and currently current) term, despite five whole years of Coalition guidance being now the obvious direct responsibility/scapegoat.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:48 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:
So your claim that the economic effect of a Brexit could be positive. Then you admit that the mainstream view is a 1-3% drop


More than a few of the studies referenced project the possibility of a positive economic impact of a Brexit. The consensus view is that there will be a 1-3% drop. This is directly from the meta analysis. There is no contradiction here. The uncertainties are large as I have been at pains to constantly state.

As TheGrammarBolshevik pointed out, that's identified as a mainstream view, not consensus. With such a wide range, it's probably more accurate to say there was *no* consensus view.

Also, even if your source had identified it as the consensus, does it include analysis to support that identification? I haven't read all 95 pages, but it seemed like most of that was taken up analyzing raw(er) numbers to support its conslusion that Brexit could be worse. Buried somewhere in that, is there a statistical analysis of the other predictions, supporting your claim that while the total range in predictions is wide, there is a tight enough cluster around the negative low single digits to call that a "consensus"?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby morriswalters » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:48 pm UTC

elasto wrote:You know what? I hope the economy crashes hard over the next three months - and long before a new PM is appointed, let alone article 50 invoked, that MPs rise up and rebel, refusing to vote to leave.
Kinda short sighted isn't it?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Zamfir » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:22 pm UTC

a possible strong pro-Remain swing in UK public opinion (we have signs of a beginning of that, but will it be enough?).

I have seen a lot of these cute regret stories, but does that really point to a wide trend? There's millions of people. If journalists find stories of regret, that tells us mostly that journalists were looking for worked of regret, not that regret was actually a common thing.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:12 pm UTC

BattleMoose wrote:I have referred to a meta analysis of peer reviewed studies examining the exact question as to the economic of a Brexit for the uk. The range of forecasts were very high. Some good for the uk, most not but it all depends on the assumptions for post brexit trade agreements. That and some other stuff I read suggest that there will be probably be a small economic hit to the UK.

As in nothing like the disaster that is being supposed.

So if there is a consensus of experts on the matter, I do want to see it, who the experts are and what their consensus is. I am starting to suspect that a lot of this is just opinions of economists. Collections from economists who think the politically convenient thing.

We have the norskes report (beyond the ivory tower) to tell us about the consensus of climate change scientists.


This seems like a decent summary. There seems to be a very clear class divide on stay v leave. The "elites" seem to be generally in favor of staying. So, those wishing to leave are at a significant disadvantage in publicizing their viewpoint, and perhaps also at enunciating it clearly. And there's some clear political advantage to be had in supporting the popular viewpoint among the elites....

So, in things that come down sharply to opinion, I'm a touch skeptical. There's a natural tendency to oversell the disadvantages of the other side. Gotta be careful of that. Economics is one of those fields that *can* do sound work, but it's really, really easy for it to be affected by bias.

gmalivuk wrote:
BattleMoose wrote:Actually I am happy to accept the consensus view at 2-3% GDP loss. I recognize the authors think something different. I also recognize that very many other people also think different things. Not knowing who is the more credible, sticking to the consensus view seems reasonable to me.
So the meta-analysis you keep referring back to as somehow bolstering the credibility of your position, doesn't actually support your position, but instead concludes reality will quite possibly see losses 3x larger...


The writers of that do not support BM's position, but the data does.

He's essentially arguing for the mainstream viewpoint, which seems reasonable. The citation is also reasonable, because he is citing the data, not their viewpoint. It supports his argument.

Honestly, I suspect that the mainstream viewpoint may still suffer from a bit of bias, but...by and large, I think it's probably most accurate. Some costs, but rather less extreme than some are saying or implying. And costs will likely fade as this outcome becomes accepted as normal. It may even be that other countries decide to exit the EU as well, and the EU will have rather less power. I dunno if that makes exiting worthwhile overall or not(that depends heavily on some hardcore prediction and/or subjective values on concepts like independence), but there's definitely room to question the more dire predictions.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

One group of rich powerful people lied to disadvantaged people about why they're disadvantaged, and convinced them to blame other disadvantaged people for "stealing" jobs instead of blaming employers for giving those jobs away to save money on wages, and to blame those disadvantaged people for overburdening public services instead of blaming those who are actually responsible for the inadequacy of those services.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby HES » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:49 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:those who are actually responsible for the inadequacy of those services.

Who are, in fact, that group of rich powerful people.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

HES wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:those who are actually responsible for the inadequacy of those services.
Who are, in fact, that group of rich powerful people.
Yeah.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:31 pm UTC

European diplomats have dismissed claims from Boris Johnson that the UK could negotiate access to the EU single market without obeying any of the rules.

“You cannot have your cake and eat it,” said an EU diplomat, echoing a phrase the former mayor of London used during the campaign and which looks set to come back to haunt him.

In a further blow to the leave camp’s credibility, Germany’s leading business group distanced itself from Johnson’s suggestion that German business expected Britain’s free trade with Europe to continue seamlessly.

...

EU diplomats reacted witheringly to the idea that the UK could stay in the single market without following the rules.

“It is a pipe dream,” said the EU diplomat. “You cannot have full access to the single market and not accept its rules. If we gave that kind of deal to the UK, then why not to Australia or New Zealand. It would be a free-for-all.”

A second EU diplomat said: “There are no preferences, there are principles and the principle is ‘no pick and choose’.”

The diplomat stressed that participating in the single market meant accepting EU rules

...

A third EU diplomat said the Brexit side had “no clue” what was going on and did not have a plan.

The Brexit camp’s claims of support from German industry also began unravelling when the country’s leading industry group distanced itself from Johnson’s rose-tinted scenario.

In the Telegraph column, Johnson claimed that the German equivalent of the CBI, the BDI, had “very sensibly reminded us there will continue to be free trade and access to the single market”.

When asked about Johnson’s comments, a BDI spokesperson pointed out that while its head, Markus Kerber, had described trade barriers as “very, very foolish” in a BBC interview on 22 June, he had been commenting on one of several fictional scenarios.

In previous interviews, the BDI spokesperson said, Kerber had warned that a vote to leave would spark a “tooth-and-nail fight” between the UK and erstwhile trade partners. “It wouldn’t be an amicable divorce”, Kerber told Bloomberg in February. “There’s no default European free-trade status in the waiting.”

...

Although countries are split over how much pressure to put on London to fire the starting gun on talks, Brussels appears united that there can be no informal talks, before the UK notifies the EU of its intention to leave. “No negotiations without notification” is becoming the key phrase in the standoff with London.

“If they treat their referendum as a non-event, we will also treat their referendum as a non-event,” an EU diplomat said.

But some Brussels insiders are worried that the UK may never trigger article 50, because the two-year deadline for talks would put the leaver in a weak position. “I personally believe they will never notify,” the diplomat said. “The moment you push the button you are in a stupid negotiating position.”


link

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:42 pm UTC

Both Pound and Euro took hits, but the Pound is falling relative to the Euro.

While I think that'll probably even out soon enough, as do most post-big event corrections, it gives you a decent snapshot of the market's viewpoint, I think.

Data: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/if-sterling-goes-down-on-brexit-it-s-taking-the-euro-with-it

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:28 pm UTC

The UK has lost its top AAA credit rating from ratings agency S&P following the country's vote to leave the EU.

S&P said the the referendum result could lead to "a deterioration of the UK's economic performance, including its large financial services sector".

Earlier the pound plunged to a 31-year low against the dollar, and UK markets closed lower for a second day.

S&P had been the only major agency to maintain a AAA rating for the UK.

On Friday, Moody's cut the UK's credit rating outlook to negative.

A rating downgrade can affect how much it costs governments to borrow money in the international financial markets. In theory, a high credit rating means a lower interest rate (and vice versa).

S&P said that the leave result would "weaken the predictability, stability, and effectiveness of policymaking in the UK".

It also warned that it expected the UK economic growth to be hit by the outcome of the vote.

The ratings agency said that there was a risk of "a constitutional crisis" if the referendum's outcome lead to a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK.

"We take the view that the deep divisions both within the ruling Conservative Party and society as a whole over the european question may not heal quickly and may hamper government stability and complicate policymaking on economic and other matters," it said.

S&P also warned uncertainty on key issues about the UK's exit from the EU would hurt investor confidence and put vital external investment "at risk".


Wonderful. The UK has a sh*t-ton of debt. We can't afford to pay more interest on it.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:41 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Wonderful. The UK has a sh*t-ton of debt. We can't afford to pay more interest on it.


Investors have poured into GILTS and have dropped the 10-year British bond to under 1%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bo ... trycode=BX

S&P's opinion of the future is contrary to what the market is indicating right now. Investors are fleeing the stock market for the safety of bonds. Now, the real risk is that GBP exchange rate. But within the British economy, the GILTS seem like the safest place to be right now. And because of that, you'll be paying less interest.

The US 10-year is 1.4% right now. So the market thinks that GILTS are safer by this measurement (although comparing interest rates is like comparing apples and oranges. US Treasuries are denoted in the dollar, while GILTs are in GBP)
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:57 pm UTC

I heard that was solely because the BoE had made £250Bn available as a stabilisation fund, which it obviously can't keep doing.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:03 pm UTC

In hilarious news, that online petition which has had unprecedented support (a few million, last I saw a count, the server it was on having fallen over once at the mere million-plus point) to make the referendum non-binding without a majority... It was set up by a Brexiter wanting to make a marginal Remain vote non-binding, before the vote, and he's quite upset that it has been 'hijacked' by the Remain voters (and, it has to be said, likely a load of fradulent/bot-created signatures), given the result...

Also, Gibraltar is talking to Scotland about getting together to stay in. Together with NI, how about settling it by having England+Wales gain 'independence' and leave the United Kingdom Of Scotland And Northern Ireland (And Gibraltar (And The Falklands, Just To Make A Point)), happily in the EU?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:13 pm UTC

elasto wrote:I heard that was solely because the BoE had made £250Bn available as a stabilisation fund, which it obviously can't keep doing.


Link? That'd be interesting for me to read.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Alder » Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:18 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:Also, Gibraltar is talking to Scotland about getting together to stay in. Together with NI, how about settling it by having England+Wales gain 'independence' and leave the United Kingdom Of Scotland And Northern Ireland (And Gibraltar (And The Falklands, Just To Make A Point)), happily in the EU?

I haven't seen anything about this, do you have a link?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:51 pm UTC

Alder wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:Also, Gibraltar is talking to Scotland about getting together to stay in. Together with NI, how about settling it by having England+Wales gain 'independence' and leave the United Kingdom Of Scotland And Northern Ireland (And Gibraltar (And The Falklands, Just To Make A Point)), happily in the EU?

I haven't seen anything about this, do you have a link?

Not my original source, but http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36639770 is first find online.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby svenman » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:19 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:Boris' article in the Telegraph this weekend: here

Some idiotic clown who thinks he's the next Churchill wrote:British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK. Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. This was a seismic campaign whose lessons must be learnt by politicians at home and abroad. We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees. We must pursue actively the one-nation policies that are among David Cameron’s fine legacy, such as his campaigns on the Living Wage and Life Chances. There is no doubt that many were speaking up for themselves.

But they were also speaking up for democracy, and the verdict of history will be that the British people got it right.


This reads more like a continuation of cake-and-eat-it rather than trying to revoke their position.

And he's already self-Blaired by trying to appeal to the judgement of history after doing something transparently going to be a disaster from the start...

It's still too early for Johnson to start backpedalling overtly without damaging such political credibility as he currently has. He is, though, taking a clear stand on wanting to keep access to the single market and also has emphasized that he wants Britain to remain an open and welcoming country, ore something to this effect. To me this looks like he is already positioning himself to give in to the inevitable demand of the EU to keep free movement of people in return for retaining access to the single market, and yes of course the blame for his certain failure of being able to enact stricter immigration controls is going to be deposited at the EU's door. "Boo hoo, the kids from Brussels won't play nice, they won't let us have their cake and eat it too!"

Soupspoon wrote:The EU will always be blamed. Even after any divorce, it'd be "those people over there in the EU" or the apparent effects of the prior EU membetship1 as the rallying cry for whatever local group is trying to deflect responsibility.

Definitely - that much was clear to me by Friday afternoon, and could have been long before the referendum if I had taken the time to consider the ramifications of each possible outcome.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Adacore » Tue Jun 28, 2016 4:27 am UTC

I've seen several commentators saying that, in the wake of the Tory leadership fiasco, there is almost certain to be a general election called within a year. What happens if the public overwhelmingly votes in that election for a party which has a strongly pro-EU platform? I can very easily see a near-term general election becoming a rerun of the EU referendum, in the same way that so much of the American political debate and Republican platform in 2012 and 2014 was dominated by the possibility of repealing The Affordable Care Act. We could end up in the ludicrous position where a democratically elected government with a strongly pro-EU mandate is in charge of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Grop » Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:58 am UTC

If that were to happen, I expect they would view it as a sign that people have changed their mind about leaving the EU.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby HES » Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:25 am UTC

Does negotiating not to leave after all count as negotiating an exit?
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