British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:48 am UTC

Apologies! Usually you can cut and paste any sentence from the article in question into Google and it'll point you straight to it. But I shall be more diligent in future :D

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby BattleMoose » Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:16 pm UTC

So for all the economic doom and gloom that has been posted about Brexit, some perspective.

Despite the apparently apocalyptic drop in the FTSE, the UK all share index at this time, is UP by about 1% compared to what it was before the referendum, and has actually been so since the start of July. Haven't checked but doubt the media has reported on that nugget.

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=12590587

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:25 pm UTC

The FTSE 100 recovered pretty well a while ago.
The 250 and small-cap are still below where they were pre-referendum.

But most of the media has been surrounding the value of the pound.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:45 pm UTC

And the BBC reported the FTSE 100 reaching higher than it was before the referendum.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby PeteP » Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:54 pm UTC

At this point most values are mostly based on expectations anyway, it will be more interesting once it actually had time to have a real effect.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Zamfir » Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:14 pm UTC

And the BBC reported the FTSE 100 reaching higher than it was before the referendum.


Which is not that surprising. The FTSE is denoted in pounds. Many of the large constituents of the FTSE 100 are true multinationals, with most of their revenue and profits only loosely tied to the UK. When the pound drops, their profits measured in pounds go up, and their share price with it. Some of these have significant costs in pounds, but income worldwide. For them, profits go up even when measured in other currencies, and doubly so when measured in pounds.

The large share indices are not thermometers of the economy, whatever journalists might like them to be

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:24 pm UTC

Exactly. The fall in sterling means the FTSE 100 (multinationals) goes up. The FTSE 250 (domestic) is a better indication of the direction of the economy. Really wish the media did a better job of explaining this stuff.

I've seen people claim that sterling getting weaker improves our exports, but it's really a wash, because we import almost all of our raw materials - which of course just got 10% more expensive.

The only way we could really benefit from the fall in sterling would be if we reopened all the mines, all the steel mills and so on, but we're just too small a country for that. It still would not be very efficient. Our main export is finance (London accounts for something like 30% of the tax take of the whole UK economy) and unless we allow free movement of labour, many of those jobs will move to Europe when we get shut out of the single market.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby HES » Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:49 pm UTC

elasto wrote:unless we allow free movement of labour

More importantly, financial passporting.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:47 am UTC

elasto wrote:The only way we could really benefit from the fall in sterling would be if we reopened all the mines, all the steel mills and so on, but we're just too small a country for that.


And they'd probably still get undercut by the Chinese steel being dumped on the market...

Anyway, yes, the media could do a much better job of reporting the real impacts of all these changes, but... I dunno. That applies to everything, really, with so much focus on Breaking News and something to fill the airwaves/ with, rather than spending time to properly analyse and report things.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:23 am UTC

Echo244 wrote:Anyway, yes, the media could do a much better job of reporting the real impacts of all these changes, but... I dunno. That applies to everything, really, with so much focus on Breaking News and something to fill the airwaves/ with, rather than spending time to properly analyse and report things.

Which is fine... But it's why representative democracy is better than direct democracy for complex, bureaucratic decisions like this - because being genuinely informed about the facts and repercussions is hard work; The truth is dry and technical, whereas the lies can be shallow and dramatic.

Members of the public can make complex, informed decisions, but you need a jury system type setup for it to work: You have advocates for and against, and a neutral umpire who ensures both sides stick to the facts and play by the rules. It's an extremely controlled situation.

What we just experienced was the equivalent of a murderer's guilt being decided by both sets of lawyers making their arguments via soundbites and adverts followed by a phone vote...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:28 am UTC

elasto wrote:Members of the public can make complex, informed decisions,

Normally I'd say yes, to this, but that this is even a thing makes me a little unsure.

(How would a placebo effect even work on a creature that probably doesn't understand proper curatives, of human origin?)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:38 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:Normally I'd say yes, to this, but that this is even a thing makes me a little unsure.

(How would a placebo effect even work on a creature that probably doesn't understand proper curatives, of human origin?)

Wow.

My brother is a 'consultant' vet - someone that other vets refer their most intractable cases to - so I'll have to ask him his opinion on this.

At first glance, the RCVS seems to be saying 'if a vet gives homeopathy inappropriately (diluted water for a broken leg or whatever) they can be struck off - and we'd rather that members of the public who believe in homeopathy continue to go to qualified vets - and if we ban it outright such people will just go to non-qualified vets'

So I guess they're expecting vets to give homeopathy in conjunction with the genuine treatment - vs people going 'underground' to non-qualified vets who only give the homeopathic remedy.

But, yeah, a really weird tightrope to have to walk as a regulator.

Once again, our public education system has a lot to answer for.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Alexius » Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:33 am UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
elasto wrote:Members of the public can make complex, informed decisions,

Normally I'd say yes, to this, but that this is even a thing makes me a little unsure.

(How would a placebo effect even work on a creature that probably doesn't understand proper curatives, of human origin?)


There have been studies on the placebo effect in rats:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13954106
http://www.scilogs.com/guest_blog/when-learning-is-infectious-a-placebo-effect-beyond-belief/
http://news.ufl.edu/archive/2012/11/the-placebo-effect-goes-beyond-humans-uf-researchers-find.html

I'm not sure whether it would work for medical treatment, though. In the studies I've read, they "conditioned" the animal with a drug that produced a given effect then found that they still got the effect when the drug was replaced with water.

Potentially if an animal has received veterinary treatment before successfully (and remembers being sick, having an injection or being given medicine, then not being sick) then some conditioning would exist, but I'm not sure if it would be enough to get a noticeable placebo effect.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:55 am UTC

Edited out of my originally less-than-pithy affixed commentary was some rambling thing about the inverse-placebo (nocebo) effect on vetinary visits. The doggy version of the internal dialogue "the last time I was here, I was poked with soething, fell asleep and when I woke up I had some bits missing!" Cause and effect of "was ill, went to the vet" could so easily be confused in order, and linking "been to vet, now well" might never be established. Could depend on the pet, and the occurences being adjacent enough. Getting better is a drawn out process, and may involve unpleasantness first and more obviously. Even if magic water is involved at some point.

(This summary of what was cut is longer than the original cut!)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby sardia » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:44 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/world ... in-eu.html
A few days after Britain voted to leave the European Union, Monika Baginski was in a supermarket, chatting with a friend on the phone in her native Polish, when a man followed her down the aisle. “You foreigner,” Ms. Baginski recalled him saying. “You’ll be out soon.”
Ms. Baginski, 32, said she was stunned. Until that moment, she had never been the target of abuse, even in Boston, a port town on the east coast of England where rancor between longtime residents and the fast-growing population of recent immigrants has been simmering for years.
But since Britain’s referendum vote to leave the European Union, latent hostility toward the new arrivals — most of whom came to Boston from Central and Eastern Europe under rules that let European Union citizens live and work anywhere in the bloc — has burst into the open, many immigrants say. Many in the Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Romanian communities in the area are anxiously considering whether they should stay in Britain, or whether they even want to.

Guess what happens when you vote against immigration, you send the signal that it's ok to be anti-immigrant. Reminds me of the South West border states in America. They pass one vote and all the racists come out of the woodwork.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:27 am UTC

There is some good news from Brexit: The rise in the FTSE 100 due to sterling crashing will trigger windfall bonuses for CEOs!

Twitter wrote:— John Gapper (@johngapper)
July 11, 2016
Jump in FTSE 100 due to sterling's fall will increase share-related compensation to CEOs. Brexit bonuses for big bosses!

Yay for trickle-down economics!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:23 am UTC

So Andrea Leadsom is no longer running to be leader of the Conservative Party (and the next PM), leaving Theresa May unopposed.
In her speech, she wants May to take the leadership without having a campaign (some speculation that Gove would be allowed to reenter to allow the party membership a choice).
I don't so much mind this outcome. It may not be ideal that the next PM is "unelected" - but party members are hardly representative of the electorate. I don't think I'd mind if May called a general election though.

On the other side of the benches, Angela Eagle is formally challenging Corbyn (finally).
I really don't know how that'll pan out.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Carlington » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:32 am UTC

Xenomortis wrote:In her speech, she wants May to take the leadership without having a campaign (some speculation that Gove would be allowed to reenter to allow the party membership a choice).
I don't so much mind this outcome. It may not be ideal that the next PM is "unelected" - but party members are hardly representative of the electorate. I don't think I'd mind if May called a general election though.


Sorry for straying a bit off topic, but would you say that your view is widely held? Because down here in Australia, a successful election campaign was built almost entirely out of the fact that the party forming government had a leadership spill and the position of Prime Minster changed hands without a federal election. A whole bunch of rhetoric about "faceless men" on the party backbenches taking control and this being terribly undemocratic, despite it being exactly how our system of government works (yours too, I think.) The current ruling party has managed to get in two terms of frankly abysmal government without losing power based largely on the residual effects of that rhetoric. Voters seem to hold the view that this party isn't ideal, but at least they don't partake in shady party room backstabbings.
I'm interested to hear whether that's as much a result of the old election campaign here as I think, or if that anti-party room decision sentiment is universal.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:41 am UTC

Gordon Brown did suffer a bit from taking over as PM without a formal mandate from the UK electorate. If he'd gone for a quick election he'd probably have won and history could have been quite different...

The Tory party can make a strong argument that an election campaign would be an unhelpful diversion at a time when the country needs political stability in order to foster economic stability. And, after all, Teresa May was one of the top faces who was endorsed in a Tory election victory only a year ago. That argument would have been weaker had Leadsom won given that she was a total unknown at the last election.

Frankly, though, the Tories can play it any way they like; If they do go for an election, they could increase their majority by a hundred given what a terrible mess the Labour party finds itself in - what with the vast majority of Labour MPs voting no confidence in their own leader but him refusing to step down...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:48 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Sorry for straying a bit off topic, but would you say that your view is widely held?

I don't know - I'm fairly pragmatic, particularly compared with my peers (21-25 year old graduates).
The reason I don't mind this outcome is because I do not want to see the Conservative party end up in the same situation as the Labour party, where a messy leadership campaign splits the party between MPs and party members. I do not think we will be served well by having both major parties suffer from significant infighting.
Remember that a leadership vote is internal to the party - myself, and most of the country, would have no say on who the next PM would be anyway.
I may not have the kindest views of May, but that's true of basically all the candidates.

I think a general election would be reasonable though - it would legitimise May's position as PM (assuming the Conservatives win), and would give any victorious party a clear mandate on their Brexit strategy (which nobody has right now). Labour need to sort their shit out quickly though, if that were to happen.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:16 pm UTC

Labour will not remotely sort themselves out in time, which is why I expect a GE to cement May's position (and potentially the Brexit vote).

Any possible GE results in Labour MPs racing to rid themselves of Corbyn before the Momentum (and other bits of the party grass roots) campaigns can get those same MPs deselected. Hell, the prospective leadership challenger could find herself deselected.

It's all a hideous mess and I completely don't understand why the MPs can't see what they've been doing. Unless they've only been reading the things written by their mates who blame everything on Corbyn.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:42 pm UTC

FWIW: I caught bits of both Leadsom and May's campaign speeches, and Leadsom's was dreadful - literally zero content - nothing but platitudes that anyone from any party from any era could have uttered.

May did at least set out her stall a bit more clearly - and, if I were to believe a word she said, seemed to want to position the party back in the centre ground - with much less focus on paying down debt, and much more on addressing the injustices in society that fed into the Brexiteer desire to deliver a bloody nose to the establishment.

Obviously she's just saying what people want to hear, but there's a non-zero probability she actually means it.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:46 pm UTC

elasto wrote:May did at least set out her stall a bit more clearly - and, if I were to believe a word she said, she seemed to want to position the party back in the centre ground - with much less focus on paying down debt, and much more focus on addressing the injustices in society that fed into the Brexiteer desire to deliver a bloody nose to the establishment.

Obviously she's just saying what people want to hear, but there's a non-zero probability she actually means it.


Hmmm. Really? I shall have to read that closely myself. If she's intending to address the injustices directly, that leaves space for weaselling out from actually Brexiting...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:51 pm UTC

Nah. She promised that 'Brexit means Brexit' - and she was also pretty anti-immigration during her time in the Home Office. We definitely wont get free movement of labour, which means we definitely won't be a part of the single market. Brexit is still full steam ahead.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:52 pm UTC

elasto wrote:FWIW: I caught bits of both Leadsom and May's campaign speeches, and Leadsom's was dreadful - literally zero content - nothing but platitudes that anyone from any party from any era could have uttered.

May did at least set out her stall a bit more clearly - and, if I were to believe a word she said, seemed to want to position the party back in the centre ground - with much less focus on paying down debt, and much more on addressing the injustices in society that fed into the Brexiteer desire to deliver a bloody nose to the establishment.

Obviously she's just saying what people want to hear, but there's a non-zero probability she actually means it.


Indeed, if she means any of it at all, then it's almost like she's looked at the Labour party destroying themselves and thought "normally those guys are the ones fighting the Left's corner and keeping us all mostly in the centre ground... if they're not going to do it, we'll have to do it ourselves".

elasto wrote:Nah. She promised that 'Brexit means Brexit' - and she was also pretty anti-immigration during her time in the Home Office. We definitely wont get free movement of labour, which means we definitely won't be a part of the single market. Brexit is still full steam ahead.


I'll have to search for the citation but I understand she said that keeping the single market is more important than restricting free movement.

EDIT: This was the best source I could find to back that up: http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/11/theresa-m ... e-5999934/
Single market
Remaining in the single market is a key priority for Theresa May

Free Movement
While she prioritises access to the single market, Theresa May has also said she will ensure there are some controls on free movement


So sounds like she'll fight to get some token concession on free movement so she can claim she succeeded here. Shame Cameron already squeezed the EU for concessions on that.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:28 pm UTC

Here's some analysis on her speech which is packed full of inspiration from the centre-left:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... 445f0fe2bf

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:40 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:EDIT: This was the best source I could find to back that up: http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/11/theresa-m ... e-5999934/
Single market
Remaining in the single market is a key priority for Theresa May

Free Movement
While she prioritises access to the single market, Theresa May has also said she will ensure there are some controls on free movement


So sounds like she'll fight to get some token concession on free movement so she can claim she succeeded here. Shame Cameron already squeezed the EU for concessions on that.


Only... it's no longer a fight. She has no pressure to apply any kind of squeeze. She's said she'll trigger Article 50. The EU has made clear there will be no pre-Article-50-negotiations, and after, the free movement and single market are pretty much tied together in a take-them-or-leave-them fashion.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:43 pm UTC

The only leverage I can see her having is if she says "I really need some concession to be able to sell us keeping freedom of movement back home. Otherwise I literally can't make a deal on us being part of the single market." And the EU deciding to give her a little something to keep the UK in the single market.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:01 pm UTC

This could have been said by Corbyn rather than May:

Outlining some of the social issues she wants to address, Mrs May said: "Right now, if you're born poor, you will die on average nine years earlier than others.

"If you're black, you're treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you're white. If you're a white, working-class boy, you're less likely than anybody else to go to university. If you're at a state school, you're less likely to reach the top professions than if you're educated privately.

"If you're a woman, you still earn less than a man. If you suffer from mental health problems, there's too often not enough help to hand. If you're young, you'll find it harder than ever before to own your own home."

She said that "fighting these injustices is not enough", and added: "If you're from a working-class family, life is just much harder than many people in politics realise."

"These are the reasons why, under my leadership, the Conservative Party will put itself - completely, absolutely, unequivocally - at the service of working people," Mrs May said


--------

For a woman on the verge of running the country, Theresa May has seemed almost preternaturally calm over the past few days.

“She’s basically the same as ever; quite relaxed and cheerful. There’s no sense of the prison shades falling,” says a longstanding friend who has observed her closely during the campaign. But then, unlike Andrea Leadsom, seemingly badly shaken by a single weekend of hostile media coverage, May knew better than anyone what to expect.

Over the past six years, May has weathered riots, sat in on a decision to go to war, and chaired an emergency Cobra meeting in the prime minister’s absence following the murder of soldier Lee Rigby.

She has been diligently doing her homework for years and, while even she did not foresee David Cameron resigning in these circumstances (let alone the collapse of all other contenders), she is as ready as she will ever be. The question is whether that is anywhere near ready enough for the turbulent times ahead.

Tory grandee Ken Clarke’s unguarded remarks about her being a “bloody difficult woman” probably did May nothing but good with female voters – and she turned them to her own advantage at the last parliamentary hustings, promising that European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker would soon find out how “bloody difficult” she could be.

But even her friends concede Clarke has a point. “She can be a bugger,” says one otherwise admiring colleague succinctly. “Not easy to work with.” May fights her corner tigerishly and, unusually for a politician, she does not seem bothered about being liked.

It is typical of her take-me-or-leave-me approach that she managed to win the support of almost two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues despite refusing to bribe waverers with job offers. “You can’t go in and say, ‘Make me under-secretary of state for sproggets and badges and you’ve got my support’,” says Eric Pickles, the ex-cabinet minister and longstanding ally. “That’s not how she operates. You’ve got to take her unconditionally.”

Indeed, the most intriguing political comparison is arguably not with Thatcher, but with Gordon Brown, the last political figure dominant enough to become prime minister basically by acclamation. Two serious-minded children of religious ministers, steeped in moral purpose, both possessed of an iron need to control. May is a famously reluctant delegator, needing to know exactly what her juniors are doing and to chew over every detail of decisions – a micromanagement style she cannot hope to apply to an entire government – and like Brown, she demands unswerving loyalty. (Although unlike him, she generally won’t say behind your back what she wouldn’t say to your face).

Yet for all her apparent stubbornness, in private May is surprisingly open to a well-sourced argument. A former junior minister who observed her playing hardball in negotiations says she will usually do a deal in the end: “It’s not just ‘because I say so’ – if you make a good argument to Theresa, she can be willing to change her position.”

She may not be adored, but she commands admiration, a wary respect, and deep gratitude from many Tory women for what the business minister Anna Soubry calls the “proper sisterhood” that she has built inside the party. There is something fitting about the fact that over a decade after May overhauled the candidate selection system to bring more women and minority ethnic MPs up the ladder behind her, her party briefly volunteered an all-female shortlist for the top job.

What makes a May premiership interestingly unpredictable is that she has always been driven less by ideology than by morality, a very personal sense of right or wrong. Her more radical moments – attacking police corruption, fighting Downing Street for an inquiry into institutional child abuse, overruling civil service advice – have often come from a feeling that common decency has been offended. She loathes any sense of impropriety in public service, of sloppy and self-serving behaviour leading to injustice.

On Monday, she hinted at an equally moralistic approach to economic policy, outlining plans to curb executive pay and put consumers and workers on corporate boards. In a rather audacious parking of the tanks on Labour’s lawn, she plans to pitch herself as a champion of the “left behind”, people struggling financially who voted to leave the EU because they didn’t see how things could get worse.

Robert Halfon, the minister without portfolio and champion of blue-collar conservatism, recognises that description well from his Harlow constituency. He backed May partly because he hopes she will advocate a more socially responsible capitalism.

“I don’t think she’s a slasher-and-burner. I think she’ll take on crony capitalism – I’ve said we should be a party of the NHS, not BHS, not these awful people screwing the workers,” he says.

It’s not hard to see where she got this rather old-fashioned sense of duty. The only daughter of the Rev Hubert Brasier and his wife Zaidee grew up in rural Oxfordshire, in a family that revolved around the demands of her father’s parishioners. It was dinned into her very young that, as the vicar’s daughter, she was always “on show”, and to this day she retains a puritanical streak; the juiciest surprise in her published tax return is that she gives quite heavily to charity.

Hers was a comfortable middle-class upbringing – two years of private school, then a local grammar and Oxford – and she enjoys a famously strong marriage to Philip, a banker she met at a Tory student disco.

But life hasn’t always been easy. Her father was killed in a car crash shortly after she graduated, and her mother, who had multiple sclerosis, died the year after. Then came the bitter discovery that the Mays could not have children. She watched as, one by one, her male Oxford contemporaries bagged seats before her and, despite being promoted dizzyingly fast when she finally reached Westminster in 1997, was never quite part of any leader’s inner circle.

Perhaps it took a certain sense of detachment to deliver that broadside after the 2001 defeat, in which she warned that the Conservatives would not regain power while they were seen as a “nasty party”. It remains a pivotal moment in Tory history, presaging Cameron’s modernising revolution four years later. Surviving the ferocious subsequent backlash, meanwhile, taught her that she was tougher than she thought.

Such feats of daring remain, however, rare. “She likes to go through the usual structures,” says a fellow senior minister, who praises her as careful rather than wildly creative. She is in many ways the continuity candidate, with Tories speculating that trusted colleagues might well stay in their old jobs to smooth the transition. Even the chancellor, George Osborne, has gone out of his way to be helpful, holding private talks with her in recent days.

At a time of national crisis, caution has its appeal. Halfon says that when he asked constituents for their views on a new leader, the word he kept hearing was “security”. She may lack a grand political vision, but if the sky fell in you sense she’d know what to do.

Yet awkward questions remain. If she is such a strong leader, why did she disappear during the EU referendum? Surely she was not cynically hedging her bets? And can a remainer ever really deliver a form of Brexit that satisfies the Tory right, without outraging her more centrist supporters?

The collapse of the leadership contest means May has not been forced to clarify her views on several controversial issues related to Brexit, chief among them immigration. As home secretary, she managed to be both passionately liberal on race issues – challenging stop-and-search because it routinely discriminates against young black men, for example – and hardline on immigration, baldly stating in a speech to last year’s party conference that current levels were not in the national interest. Many MPs do wonder how she can honestly reconcile such apparently conflicting beliefs.

“I’ve struggled with this, frankly,” says one modernising MP who backed her only after some soul-searching. “Her views on stop-and-search, on same-sex marriage, and forced slavery – it just doesn’t square with this.”

But Pickles, who worked with her for years on community cohesion, argues that she has merely been quicker than most to recognise what a toxic issue immigration has become.

“I’ve always been of the view that if you let the genie out of the bottle, it’s very difficult, but I think she got the early warning signs,” he says. “I think [that speech] was a genuine attempt to try and pull us back before the great chasm we descended into.”

Whatever the truth, the Conservatives are in that chasm now. It now falls to Theresa May to drag them out.


That actually seems quite promising...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:46 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:It may not be ideal that the next PM is "unelected"

And which PM has been elected (as PM, rather than just MP). At best, for decades the person has been in position as MP (not the country's choice) and party leader (mostly only their fellow party representative's choice, with lip-service to the membership, until fairly recently... ) when the public voted for... maybe their MP, personally; maybe their party, regardless if the guy on the ballot; maybe just against opposing candidates/party-attitudes... Maybe for the leader, but just as likely against the opposing leader.

Then their party wins (or near-as-damnit does, with a little wheeler-dealing needed).and they get invited (back?) to the palace. But very few people actually really put them there as PM. (And yet they complained about the EU.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby K-R » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:36 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Sorry for straying a bit off topic, but would you say that your view is widely held? Because down here in Australia, a successful election campaign was built almost entirely out of the fact that the party forming government had a leadership spill and the position of Prime Minster changed hands without a federal election.
Cameron resigned, though, which makes it somewhat different to the Rudd/Gilllard/Rudd situation.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:11 am UTC

Apparently, over the last century, half of new PMs became PM between elections. So it's not at all unusual.

And we don't have a presidential system in the UK anyway; You vote for your MP who votes for a PM.

(Which makes the charge of the EU being 'undemocratic' absurd; They operate the same system we do: in both cases the directly elected representatives choose the leader(s).)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:49 am UTC

The party leader directs the course of the party's (and hence the government's) position.
Whilst we do not directly "elect" a PM, do not doubt that "Cameron vs Miliband" was a strong factor in the last election, regardless of policy positions.
With a new PM, the Tory's strategy will change.

But of course, the party leader only operates with permission from the party.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:04 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:But of course, the party leader only operates with permission from the party.
Though let us at least await the conclusion of the Eagle vs Corbyn thing before we fully qualify what might be meant by that... ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:15 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:But of course, the party leader only operates with permission from the party.
Though let us at least await the conclusion of the Eagle vs Corbyn thing before we fully qualify what might be meant by that... ;)


And the Eagle vs. her own constituency party thing. And the Labour MPs vs. Labour Party members. And that's without bringing the Unions into it...

That sorry saga is going to explode in quite a few different ways before it's over. Hopefully not literally, as death threats are apparently flying around, and Eagle's office has been promptly vandalised.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:21 pm UTC

That's why I'm surprised at the calls for a general election from people on the left. I don't fancy Labour's chances in a GE in its current state. I think the best thing to do is let Corbyn run the party, wait for the next GE, and see what happens. And if Labour does abysmally, then they have an actual argument for getting rid of him.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:40 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:That's why I'm surprised at the calls for a general election from people on the left. I don't fancy Labour's chances in a GE in its current state. I think the best thing to do is let Corbyn run the party, wait for the next GE, and see what happens. And if Labour does abysmally, then they have an actual argument for getting rid of him.


I think the calls are either a bluff (which went well for Cameron when he thought Brown might call a snap election) or from left wingers who want to be able to deselect their MPs who are rebelling against Corbyn. Which might be, I think, the best way out of this mess for Labour, without pissing off most of their activist base and core vote.

The MPs have gone far, far too far to roll back and "let" Corbyn run the party until a GE. Hell, they wanted to be rid of him after the council elections in May, but actually, Labour did OK, defending most of the councils they were expected to lose. So the MPs had to hold fire until the referendum, after which they've been desperately piling on to Corbyn because they smell a possible GE and reckon they need someone else to pull in the floating voters, and that their nominally core support will just keep voting Labour.

Which, knowing some of them, is not entirely correct.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:59 pm UTC

A BBC news story has the headline "Eagle tries to carry off Australian boy", I clicked it genuinely thinking it was about Angela Eagle.

Labour's National Executive Committee has voted and decided that Corbyn can be on the ballot paper without needing to seek nominations. In a way, that vote *was* the leadership contest. If he had to seek nominations, there's very little chance he'd have got enough. Now he can run anyway, there's very little chance he won't win the contest.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby GloriousAlligator » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:42 am UTC

Echo244 wrote:
Mutex wrote:EDIT: This was the best source I could find to back that up: http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/11/theresa-m ... e-5999934/
Single market
Remaining in the single market is a key priority for Theresa May

Free Movement
While she prioritises access to the single market, Theresa May has also said she will ensure there are some controls on free movement


So sounds like she'll fight to get some token concession on free movement so she can claim she succeeded here. Shame Cameron already squeezed the EU for concessions on that.


Only... it's no longer a fight. She has no pressure to apply any kind of squeeze. She's said she'll trigger Article 50. The EU has made clear there will be no pre-Article-50-negotiations, and after, the free movement and single market are pretty much tied together in a take-them-or-leave-them fashion.


Yeah. If you cap free movement, it's not free movement. Besides, it would be really hard for the EU to cap UK citizens moving into its countries.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Diadem » Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:54 am UTC

Echo244 wrote:It's all a hideous mess and I completely don't understand why the MPs can't see what they've been doing. Unless they've only been reading the things written by their mates who blame everything on Corbyn.

But Corbyn is to blame for everything, so why wouldn't Labour MPs place the blame there?

Yes, many MPs hated him before this whole referendum, and they were looking for an excuse to get rid of him. But their current reason for trying to get rid of him is not just some excuse. He sabotaged what's probably the most important campaign for his party this century. That's the most obvious and justified reason for a vote of no confidence I've ever seen in all my years of following politics. I mean, if that's not a reason for a vote of no confidence, what the fuck is?

And yes, technically, legally, he's not required to step down after a vote of no confidence. But that's some selfish bullshit right there. His refusal to step down is destroying the party, and there's no way he hasn't noticed that. Which means he doesn't give a fuck. Which is all the more reason to get rid of him post haste.

elasto wrote:Apparently, over the last century, half of new PMs became PM between elections. So it's not at all unusual.

It's still one of the strangest features of the British system to me. Our system is similar to the British one in many ways. We have an PM, who's elected by the MPs. But such an between-elections swap never happens in our system. It would be entirely legal, ministers are regularly replaced halfway through, and there's no rule saying the PM is different, but it is just not done. If the PM resigns, the entire cabinet resigns.

The major difference between our systems I guess is that none of our parties ever gets an outright majority. So the cabinet is formed by a coalition of parties. So a change of PM would require approval of all coalition members, and they will understandably be worried about what's going to happen with previous agreements under a new leadership, so it basically require new coalition negotiations. And again that's all legally perfectly fine, but I guess it's more difficult. Or maybe it's just tradition that it doesn't happen. Or a little bit of both.
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