British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:59 pm UTC

I think they'd like to, and they may gain traction the election after this, but for now they'd probably be over the moon to get 20 MPs...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:40 pm UTC

For the record, in 26 hours and 26 minutes I'm not allowed to have a public opinion on any of this. I have done my best, in the face of weakness, lack of foresight, and recent man-child stupidity. You vote for the hell you live in. Have fun guys.

However, my job will remain to make the best of it, and I will continue to do it to the best of my ability. Jumble, signing off, until Purdah is over.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:31 pm UTC

You work for the civil service? The BBC? Do tell!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Diadem » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:26 pm UTC

I still think it is weird that May is calling for an election in June. It's like she doesn't even believe in nominative determinism.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby sardia » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:49 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:I still think it is weird that May is calling for an election in June. It's like she doesn't even believe in nominative determinism.

You're a bad person.

I'm getting the same vibes from the UK that I'm getting from Japan. A terrible administration but the opposition is even more incompetent.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

elasto wrote:You work for the civil service? The BBC? Do tell!

Civil servant. I'm an FCO diplomat currently serving in the Middle East.

Bless it, the FCO lacks a sense of humour if you start mouthing off during Purdah. So I'll be good.

Shame that the FBI didn't bother with such niceties last November. Okay, that's all from me for a bit.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:51 pm UTC

We'll miss you, Jumble.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:50 pm UTC

For the first time in decades, Scotland’s Tories have a confident gleam in their eyes. Almost exactly 20 years after being wiped from Scotland’s electoral map by New Labour in 1997, losing all its MPs, the party is on the brink of a Westminster revival.

The first Scottish opinion polls published since Theresa May announced the snap election suggest the Scottish Tories could win up to a dozen Westminster seats, nearly all of them at the expense of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National party.

A Survation poll for the Sunday Post put the Tories at 28%, against 43% for the SNP, with Sturgeon’s party seven points lower than its vote in 2015. At that level, the Conservatives would win up to eight seats.

For the Sunday Times, a Panelbase survey put Tory support at its highest since the 1970s, at 33% against 44% for the SNP. In theory, that would give the Tories 12 Westminster seats – a total the party privately regards as fanciful.

Yet such polls offer fresh evidence that the EU referendum result has disrupted politics in the same way the independence referendum did in 2014: this time the Tories appear to be the beneficiaries.

A poll on Monday suggested the Labour party faced losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918.

The YouGov poll suggested the Tories could win a majority of Welsh seats at a general election for the first time since the 1850s – before the era of mass democracy. The apparent shift seems to be the result of Ukip voters switching to the Tories.

At last year’s assembly elections Welsh Labour managed to distance itself from the UK-wide party and held on to power in Cardiff, but party sources worry that at a general election it is much harder to repeat that trick.

With UKIP voters returning to the fold in England too, I'd be amazed if the Tories didn't have a thumping majority in a month's time - which could be a horrible recipe for good government.

We don't have the Presidency, Senate and Congress to each reign in the worst excesses of the others, we simply have parliament - and Her Majesty's 'official opposition' could easily fracture into irrelevance for a generation... :/

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Xenomortis » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:02 pm UTC

There are 59 seats in Scotland.
The SNP hold 54 of them.
The Conservative, Labour, and LibDem parties have one each.
There are two independents (previously SNP).

Only one party has anything to lose in Scotland.

The Tories used to have a pretty good showing in Scotland, but I understand that disappeared in the Thatcher use. Labour, and Liberal Democrats to an extent, have generally done well in Scotland (2015 notwithstanding).
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:13 pm UTC

The joke, until recently, was solely about there being fewer Conservative MPs in Scotland than there are pandas. Edinburgh Zoo has two pandas (trying to get at least a third by the usual biological means), whereas there was only one Tory MP within Scotland.

At the last election, all but three of the 59 MPs for Scotland were SNP. There was that one Tory (in an England-bordering area), one Labour (Edinburgh South, not even a Glasgow area!) and one LibDem (Orkneys and Shetland, basically a wedding gift from Norway). Since then, two SNPers have become Independent for... reasons... and it sounds like those seats will be recontested with new SNPers this next time round. But SNP really have everything to lose. They're so dominant in Scotland that nearly any swing at all will disbenefit them and give someone something. But going from one seat to none is a possible fate for the other (local versions of the) national parties, depending on what happens between now and June. And it's much too early to say how that goes. It may well be that the Tories have peaked too soon in 'popularity', although I honestly think that the path to Labour victory (or indeed non-defeat) is trickier even than the LibDem one of even partial recovery to Coalition-time strength.


(Ninjaed, and with similar sentiment, but as I wrote it...)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:17 pm UTC

That's what my general recollection was, yeah (didn't remember specific numbers).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:30 pm UTC

When you catch the bus on Shetland, on a windy day (we're talking gale force, under beautiful bright blue skies!), to be told by the driver that the vehicle is only just back on the road after being blown off it a month or two ago... Yeah, cozy... ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:35 pm UTC

It's cozy when I'm snuggled up watching it on the couch with kitty and blankets and tea. :mrgreen:
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby sardia » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:07 am UTC

Liri wrote:
Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

Now hold on there, does the UK suffer from Gerrymandering or bias in vote to population?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:33 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Liri wrote:
Spoiler:
Congress = Senate + House of Representatives

You probably meant Supreme Court, not Senate


That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

Now hold on there, does the UK suffer from Gerrymandering or bias in vote to population?

Voting districts in the UK have a pretty consistent size, with most of them between 60-80 thousand people. There aren't any levels of authority above that (wrt parliament) that can be Gerrymandered. I took a class on this stoof a billion years ago in high school, so a real Brit should feel free to correct.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby eSOANEM » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:34 am UTC

Also we have an independent boundary commission which limits the amount of gerrymandering (although there certainly is some). The big issue in Scotland is that it has always (in recent history) been a fair bit left of England (and therefore the majority of UK constituencies) and, after the independence referendum there was split fairly evenly between nationalists and unionists; this meant that the Scottish nationalists got a small plurality in pretty much every single constituency (because the nationalists all vote for them whereas the unionists are more split). It was first past the post that fucked up in Scotland not the boundaries.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Fri May 12, 2017 6:25 pm UTC

Interesting read from The New Yorker.

http://www.newyorker.com/culture/person ... tony-blair
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:43 pm UTC

More indirect fallout from Brexit:

There has been a sharp drop in nurses registering to work in the UK since the EU referendum, figures suggest.

Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register, compared to 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.

The Health Foundation said the findings could not be more stark and said they should act as a "wake-up call".

It comes as the NHS is already struggling with nurse vacancies and, without this supply line, shortages could get worse.

In May, research by the Royal College of Nursing found one in nine posts in England was vacant. The union said it meant the NHS was 40,000 nurses short of what was needed.


link

Hell, I wouldn't go to work in a country I wasn't wanted either.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:17 pm UTC

Absolutely, don't blame you, but we thought of that before we voted for it! Because we're real smart and we've had enough of experts! The answer is, um, err...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:00 pm UTC

Theresa May warned against ‘shooting off foot’ with Brexit immigration system

Former Tory leader Lord Hague backed Britain leaving the single market and believes that an agreement can be reached with the EU for the UK which would mean “taking powers back, the sovereign powers back to the UK”.

However, he stressed that these new powers needed to be used in a “constructive way”.

“Which means continuing to have quite a liberal approach on migration, which is essential to our economy in the short-term anyway, so we take back control but we use that to enter a strong free trade agreement,” the senior Conservative told BBC Radio 4’s Reflections with Peter Hennessy.

“You can take back control of a gun but it doesn’t mean you use it to shoot your foot off.”

But he believes the Brexit talks are likely to be fraught with difficulties.

“The Government faces the most complex task of any government since the Second World War. It is a very difficult one,” he explained.


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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:00 pm UTC

An agreement has apparently been reached in the Brexit negotiations for the UK's exit bill. According to the BBC, this could be as much as €50Bn / £44Bn - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42161346

The London Metro this morning reported it could be £50Bn, with an additional £40Bn for pensions and other stuff.

In any case it seems the method for calculating the bill has been agreed upon so we'll get the final score soon. Nigel Farage is predictably furious.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:13 pm UTC

And nobody (without a single-track mind and the luck to win the sweepstake on that lone item) will get what they want. Everybody will be disappointed.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:47 pm UTC

I'm fascinated to see what agreement, if they ever come to one, they reach over the NI/Ireland border. Seems the options are:

1. Customs border between Ireland and rest of EU
2. Customs border between Ireland and NI
3. Customs border between NI and rUK (NI stays in Single Market, rUK doesn't)
4. UK stays in Single Market

#1 is never going to happen, free movement throughout the EU is something the EU would never negotiate.
#2 is something the Irish PM threatened to veto any deal over, we don't want to kick that hornet's nest.
#3 isn't great either, effectively splitting up the UK.
#4 would be very sensible but a bitter pill for some to swallow.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:12 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:And nobody (without a single-track mind and the luck to win the sweepstake on that lone item) will get what they want. Everybody will be disappointed.


Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. I'm getting increasingly bitter about the whole fucking thing, especially as the UK government is constantly doubling down on the playing stupid games part of it.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby HES » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:14 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:2. Customs border between Ireland and NI

Catastrophically awful outcome. And at this rate the most likely...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:21 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Mutex wrote:2. Customs border between Ireland and NI

Catastrophically awful outcome. And at this rate the most likely...

People seem to be seriously talking about the UK staying in the single market now, something that hasn't been considered plausible for a while.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:42 pm UTC

In any case it seems the method for calculating the bill has been agreed upon so we'll get the final score soon. Nigel Farage is predictably furious.

This was one of those Brexit aspects that really annoyed me. If it wasn't for the heavy pressure from the EU,the UK was apparently planning to just walk away from all obligations. And the British leadership portrayed those obligations to the British public as extortion by the EU, a nasty price extracted because they can. All of it, not just some controversial subset.

It's such a bad-faith attitude, and it's repeated on every single topic again.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:48 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:
In any case it seems the method for calculating the bill has been agreed upon so we'll get the final score soon. Nigel Farage is predictably furious.

This was one of those Brexit aspects that really annoyed me. If it wasn't for the heavy pressure from the EU,the UK was apparently planning to just walk away from all obligations. And the British leadership portrayed those obligations to the British public as extortion by the EU, a nasty price extracted because they can. All of it, not just some controversial subset.

It's such a bad-faith attitude, and it's repeated on every single topic again.

And by acting like it's extortion, they make themselves look worse to the Brexit voting public when they eventually have to capitulate because, you know, reality. Can't wait to watch the toys exiting prams (toyxit?) if and when we stay in the single market.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:07 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Mutex wrote:2. Customs border between Ireland and NI

Catastrophically awful outcome. And at this rate the most likely...

Northern Irish I met in Derry over the summer were raring to go if a border sprung up. It was really something being in Derry and Belfast. The peace walls were intense.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:52 pm UTC

It seems the UK and EU are close to an agreement on the three main outstanding issues, including the Irish border:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42217735

Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name. But, she stressed, the BBC has not yet seen the draft document nor has it yet been signed off.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon reacted to reports that Northern Ireland could retain "regulatory alignment" with the EU by saying there was "surely no good practical reason" why other parts of the UK could not do the same.

But according to RTE's Europe editor Tony Connelly, a draft text being circulated suggests the UK is set to agree to a key Irish demand - that there would be "continued regulatory alignment" for businesses in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit.

Although the wording of any proposed deal on the Northern Ireland border is yet to be confirmed, the Democratic Unionist Party MP Sammy Wilson, was unhappy with what had been reported so far.

"We've made it quite clear that we will do nothing that would separate us from our main market , which is the United Kingdom - so how could they even deliver on such a promise," he said.


So, it seems that NI will still be in the single market, while the rest of the UK won't be, so the customs border will be between NI and the rest of the UK. So #3 on my list. It's a solution, but not a great one as the rest of the UK is NI's main trade partner. Also it sounds like Sturgeon will be pushing for Scotland to stay in the single market too, weirdly considering Scotland also mostly trades with the rest of the UK.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Grop » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:22 pm UTC

Is it really a concession? I thought most Brits were happy about customs union and single market and unhappy about some other EU things.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:33 pm UTC

Grop wrote:Is it really a concession? I thought most Brits were happy about customs union and single market and unhappy about some other EU things.

The single market comes with it free movement of people, which certainly a lot of brexiters are vehemently, rabidly against. If the whole of the UK ends up staying in the single market then we'll basically be in the EU but without having any voting rights, much like Norway. It's still my preferred outcome (staying in the EU as much as possible will limit the economic damage) but it would certainly make a lot of people unhappy.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Grop » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:52 pm UTC

Oh, I thought this was only about goods and money.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:46 pm UTC

The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

So, that leaves the entire UK staying in the single market then.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby sardia » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:30 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

So, that leaves the entire UK staying in the single market then.

Does that make the EU stronger or weaker? Because if the UK was always a thorn in the side of the EU, wouldn't making it a nonvoting member be a good thing?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:34 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Mutex wrote:The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

So, that leaves the entire UK staying in the single market then.

Does that make the EU stronger or weaker? Because if the UK was always a thorn in the side of the EU, wouldn't making it a nonvoting member be a good thing?

Yes and no. The UK might've been difficult but Germany apparently saw the UK as an ally against the southern countries, as the north and south (very broadly speaking) of the EU have quite different approaches to economics, with the north being more concerned with keeping a low budget deficit.


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