First Tesla Autopilot Death

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sardia
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:03 pm UTC

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechcons ... us-driving

The real question is which approach is going to succeed, Tesla's partial sensor package, or Google's 360 sensor package.
Google relies on a highly expensive complex remote-sensing system called Lidar, which the website 9to5google.com explains as an "array on top of the vehicle, which — in simple terms — measures distance by pointing lasers at targets surrounding the car and analyzing the light that's reflected."

Musk late last year suggested in a press conference that Lidar was a bit excessive for an automobile:

"For full autonomy you'd obviously need 360-degree cameras, you'd need probably redundant forward cameras, you'd need redundant computing hardware, and then redundant motors and a steering rack. ... That said, I don't think you need Lidar. I think you can do this all with passive optical and then with maybe one forward radar."
Tesla's Autopilot relies on a combination of "cameras, radar, ultrasonic sensors and data automatically steer down the highway, change lanes, and adjust speed in response to traffic," and uses auto braking technology by Israeli company Mobileye.

If it's Google's, then the only people who get robot cars are the rich and the corporate/transport entities. This could cause similar issues as the nuclear industry. We try to be so redundant and safe that nobody buys it.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:05 pm UTC

sardia wrote:http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/07/01/484320101/what-tesla-and-googles-approaches-tell-us-about-autonomous-driving

The real question is which approach is going to succeed, Tesla's partial sensor package, or Google's 360 sensor package.
Google relies on a highly expensive complex remote-sensing system called Lidar, which the website 9to5google.com explains as an "array on top of the vehicle, which — in simple terms — measures distance by pointing lasers at targets surrounding the car and analyzing the light that's reflected."

Musk late last year suggested in a press conference that Lidar was a bit excessive for an automobile:

"For full autonomy you'd obviously need 360-degree cameras, you'd need probably redundant forward cameras, you'd need redundant computing hardware, and then redundant motors and a steering rack. ... That said, I don't think you need Lidar. I think you can do this all with passive optical and then with maybe one forward radar."
Tesla's Autopilot relies on a combination of "cameras, radar, ultrasonic sensors and data automatically steer down the highway, change lanes, and adjust speed in response to traffic," and uses auto braking technology by Israeli company Mobileye.

If it's Google's, then the only people who get robot cars are the rich and the corporate/transport entities. This could cause similar issues as the nuclear industry. We try to be so redundant and safe that nobody buys it.



If optical cameras are getting blinded by the sun and can't see a tractor-trailer in your way, then I'm gonna bet that the winner is Lidar. Or maybe just more Radar installations.

---------

Realistically speaking, I don't see people buying self-driving cars for themselves. There's the trust issue, there's the freedom issue (I still drive a manual transmission for example: and it helps me understand the relationship between the engine and the pavement), there's the unknown regulation issues, and there is finally the cost issue.

I'm thinking that adaptive cruise control / automatic emergency braking will become popular safety features and widely deployed. Maybe one or two features that haven't been invented yet as well. After that, the world will need to prepare for the jump to Level 4 full-autonomous driving (no steering wheel: just a GPS screen with a button that says "go here"). Because anything less than full-autonomous is likely very dangerous.

http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+ ... evelopment


No-Automation (Level 0): The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls – brake, steering, throttle, and motive power – at all times.

Function-specific Automation (Level 1): Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions. Examples include electronic stability control or pre-charged brakes, where the vehicle automatically assists with braking to enable the driver to regain control of the vehicle or stop faster than possible by acting alone.

Combined Function Automation (Level 2): This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. An example of combined functions enabling a Level 2 system is adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering.

Limited Self-Driving Automation (Level 3): Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently comfortable transition time. The Google car is an example of limited self-driving automation.

Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.


I'm not convinced that "Level 3" is a safe point for us to rest. Advanced Level 2 forces the human to be in control all the time. Level 3 just sounds dangerous: you can trust that the car will drive itself 99% of the time, but in that 1% of the case when the sensors get confused, you're expected to take over??

Ehhhhh.... I dunno. I know that even as a front-seat passenger, I'm not as aware of my surroundings as the main driver. Because when you aren't "in control", psychologically, you become distracted on other tasks. (Counting cars or lightpoles or something)
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:03 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:Also I'd like to mention you wouldn't notice if you missed a white 18-wheeler. Like, it might happen every week for all you know!

Every morning, for twenty-odd years, a man and his wife drive away from home, taking her into town to do the daily shop on his way into work.

Like every time, as he has to pull out of a sideroad across to the other side of the main road, he checks his side for traffic and asks her "alright, luv?" as she has a better view of oncoming traffic. "Yes, luv," comes the reply, as usual and he pulls across only to be met with a blaring horn and a far-too-close encounter with a vehicle.

Shaken, he pulls over, and enquires of his wife (I leave the manner of the enquiry up to your imagination) how she didn't notice tne car, when he asked her if the road was clear... Apparently she had thought he was just asking her if she was content, in their little morning ritual, for the last twenty years, and never knew she was even supposed to be checking the road for him.

(Paraphrase of a tale, source unknown and probably unverifiable or dismissable as pure modern-day folk story, that I heard back in the '80s. Not sure if I heard it before or after the day, in the early '80s, I was struck and thrown from my bike by a morning commuter pulling out of a side-road in the middle of a flat, treeless village-green area, without noticing the lad on a bike riding with at least enough due care and attention to swerve and only get clipped off to tumble across the otherwise empty road by the front bumper (rather than strike the vehicle side, to potentially worse results) and definitely the right of way. Of course the driver had pulled out the same time each and every weekday morning, excluding holidays/vacations, for yonks and rarely encountered a car on the quiet road junction and never a bicycle, or at least noticed one. Including this particular morning, obviously.)

...obviously this (these) is (are) just an exemplum (a couple of exempla) that I thought worth relating.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Neil_Boekend » Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:52 pm UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:
HES wrote:
Neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky

This could just have easily occurred with a fully human-driven vehicle. Zero deaths is an unreasonable expectation, as long as it is significantly less. There is, of course, plenty of room for improvement for this relatively new technology.


In my decade+-long run of driving, I have NEVER failed to notice a fucking 18-wheeler because it was white.
<snip>

Yes, the failure mode of Tesla's sensor array is not at all similar to that of humans.
That doesn't matter. We can't know if the human drivers would have had 0, 1, 2 or 3 accidents in that distance where the cars were driving in autopilot. Only statistics can give a clue to that, and the small sample size of 130 Mmiles is just not sufficient to say anything but "there is a very weak indication that overall the autopilot may be better". We do not have the data to say much more.
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:56 pm UTC

Neil_Boekend wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:
HES wrote:
Neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky

This could just have easily occurred with a fully human-driven vehicle. Zero deaths is an unreasonable expectation, as long as it is significantly less. There is, of course, plenty of room for improvement for this relatively new technology.


In my decade+-long run of driving, I have NEVER failed to notice a fucking 18-wheeler because it was white.
<snip>

Yes, the failure mode of Tesla's sensor array is not at all similar to that of humans.
That doesn't matter. We can't know if the human drivers would have had 0, 1, 2 or 3 accidents in that distance where the cars were driving in autopilot. Only statistics can give a clue to that, and the small sample size of 130 Mmiles is just not sufficient to say anything but "there is a very weak indication that overall the autopilot may be better". We do not have the data to say much more.

I think cost is a bigger issue than anything else right now. We have a really good autonomous car package, the problem is they cost a buttload of money. LIDAR sensor array isn't cheap. Tesla was trying to make do with bare minimum hodgepodge of sensors to attempt the same result for less money.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Mauthe Dhoo » Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:42 pm UTC

Sardia, is there any reason to expect that costs for LIDAR would not go down as it became a more standard component of a mass market product like cars? Today, LIDAR is very expensive, but also very specialized. It seems like there would be a great deal more money to be made by inventing a cheaper LIDAR for a future market of driverless cars than there is today for a market of remote sensing technicians - hence spurring more R&D investment.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Liri » Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:58 pm UTC

It's amusing to imagine millions of driverless cars shuttling people back and forth from their homes to work instead of using some form of public transportation.
There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Soupspoon » Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:17 pm UTC

I'm wondering if it's easier than you'd think to 'jam' or even spoof lidar/radar sensors. At the most basic, trigger an overwhelming 'backscatter' effect when ranging feelers are detected, swamping any useful signal, as it becomes more complicated setting up a delayed return (or time-advanced return, if the signal is predictable enough to do so) that fools the sensor into evaluating an erroneous distance value. And from all that ultrasound, light and radio energy washing around a busy road, how confused can each vehicle be without some rather good frequency-hopping, and could susceptible wildlife be 'dazzled' or actually harmed, for both light and sound wavelengths employed.

Qustions for another day, no doubt, but not left unanswered for too long, just in case.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby ahammel » Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:34 pm UTC

Liri wrote:It's amusing to imagine millions of driverless cars shuttling people back and forth from their homes to work instead of using some form of public transportation.

The cars might well be the public transportation.
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:33 pm UTC

ahammel wrote:
Liri wrote:It's amusing to imagine millions of driverless cars shuttling people back and forth from their homes to work instead of using some form of public transportation.

The cars might well be the public transportation.

Isn't it more amusing/horrifying that there are millions of cars with only 1 driver and 0 passengers shutting back and forth? Shift your perspective, like man, like woah!!!!
*ahem, hippyspeak.

Lidar will get cheaper, but there's ongoing development costs.
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jul 03, 2016 12:00 am UTC

sardia wrote:Isn't it more amusing/horrifying that there are millions of cars with only 1 driver and 0 passengers shutting back and forth? Shift your perspective, like man, like woah!!!!
*ahem, hippyspeak.
Everybody should ride bikes, to the best of my knowledge they are the only common form of transport that weighs less than a man.

Drivers themselves can be blinded by oncoming headlights, lasers and various forms of precipitation. Sometimes they busy themselves so much that what they should see they don't. Maybe looking at their GPS or phone.

If you consider the poor guy that got decapitated, it appears that it would have been better if he was sleeping reclined rather that watching Potter. The car survived well enough to keep going for some time. I believe a tree ended up stopping it. Consider that the car is heavy and all the control system probably knew was the driver wasn't holding the wheel.(I infer that because the car doesn't appear to have braked, the way the car acted in descriptions it just dropped out of auto). Not much above the pillars but maybe airbags and lighting, unless of course there was a camera on top of the windshield.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby elasto » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:54 am UTC

sardia wrote:Isn't it more amusing/horrifying that there are millions of cars with only 1 driver and 0 passengers shutting back and forth? Shift your perspective, like man, like woah!!!!

Cars are pretty inefficient right now. Each one might be in use for 10% of the day and consumes a parking space at work, at home, at the shops and so on.

If we all switch over to self-driving uber taxis instead of owning our own, efficiencies could go up enough to rival or even surpass public transportation. And the door-to-door factor is obviously far more convenient.

Public transport could be made more efficient too though: You could have your core set of self-driving busses, but also a group that automatically go to wherever there are spikes in demand.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:45 pm UTC

I know, i was correcting Liri who thinks it's a waste to have cars driving around by themselves. Which is true but incorrectly framed as bad.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:53 pm UTC

Everybody should ride bikes, to the best of my knowledge they are the only common form of transport that weighs less than.


Everybody should! The benefits are outrageous!

People would be healthier and happier. Reduced costs medical costs. Won't need nearly as many parking spots in prime locations. Air quality would be better. There would be so much less noise. Not to mention climate change. And the maintenance on roads would be so much less. And people would be less stressed too. Have you noticed how stressful driving can be and how angry it makes some people?

It's actually just so nice when there aren't cars around. The problem is to get these benefits you need an entire societal shift towards bicycles. In the mean time there are too many meatsacks driving too recklessly to make cycling pretty damn dangerous. To make cycling delightful, you have to get rid of the cars but you can't do that until cycling is delightful....

(I don't own a car, its not that hard. Cars are stupid. Rather private ownership of cars is stupid.)

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:11 pm UTC

BattleMoose wrote:
Everybody should ride bikes, to the best of my knowledge they are the only common form of transport that weighs less than.


Everybody should! The benefits are outrageous!

People would be healthier and happier. Reduced costs medical costs. Won't need nearly as many parking spots in prime locations. Air quality would be better. There would be so much less noise. Not to mention climate change. And the maintenance on roads would be so much less. And people would be less stressed too. Have you noticed how stressful driving can be and how angry it makes some people?

It's actually just so nice when there aren't cars around. The problem is to get these benefits you need an entire societal shift towards bicycles. In the mean time there are too many meatsacks driving too recklessly to make cycling pretty damn dangerous. To make cycling delightful, you have to get rid of the cars but you can't do that until cycling is delightful....

(I don't own a car, its not that hard. Cars are stupid. Rather private ownership of cars is stupid.)

Another obstacle is the design of a city. It's 30% bigger than needed because all the empty spaces needed to hold cars. In essence it's a subsidy from the poor to those who own cars.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:43 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Another obstacle is the design of a city. It's 30% bigger than needed because all the empty spaces needed to hold cars. In essence it's a subsidy from the poor to those who own cars.


Imagine how much more space there would be for activities!

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby ucim » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:45 pm UTC

Bikes are fine, if you don't mind arriving all sweaty at work after riding twenty-three miles in the snow and rain, and don't mind getting there at ten miles an hour instead of sixty.

sardia wrote:Another obstacle is the design of a city. It's 30% bigger than needed because all the empty spaces needed to hold cars. In essence it's a subsidy from the poor to those who own cars.
Oh, come now. Parks are a subsidy from the poor to those who have free time to enjoy them. Everything is a subsidy from those who don't use them to those who do. It's the price of living with others.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:49 pm UTC

Autonomous cars don't need to drive around at all unless carrying passengers. And in an environment where they don't have to compete with human drivers they can be as light as is possible. Bicycles are fine if the weather is, otherwise you need a little shelter from the storm, so to speak. But in the long haul, some type of augmented reality may be able to remove the need to move around accept for leisure.
Another obstacle is the design of a city. It's 30% bigger than needed because all the empty spaces needed to hold cars. In essence it's a subsidy from the poor to those who own cars.
Streets existed before there were cars. Commerce would still need to move and bikes need streets, all I suspect would change is how the space was utilized. Even parking garages.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:53 pm UTC

ucim wrote:Bikes are fine, if you don't mind arriving all sweaty at work after riding twenty-three miles in the snow and rain, and don't mind getting there at ten miles an hour instead of sixty.


I don't mind arriving sweaty, because my university had showers for cyclists, have your morning shower there, no time lost! I can very comfortably maintain 25 miles an hour and not being restricted to roads means some journeys can actually be quicker. Or at worst not much longer. And usually much more enjoyable.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:00 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:Autonomous cars don't need to drive around at all unless carrying passengers. And in an environment where they don't have to compete with human drivers they can be as light as is possible. Bicycles are fine if the weather is, otherwise you need a little shelter from the storm, so to speak. But in the long haul, some type of augmented reality may be able to remove the need to move around accept for leisure.
Another obstacle is the design of a city. It's 30% bigger than needed because all the empty spaces needed to hold cars. In essence it's a subsidy from the poor to those who own cars.
Streets existed before there were cars. Commerce would still need to move and bikes need streets, all I suspect would change is how the space was utilized. Even parking garages.

If you had a city redesigned, you could remove most of the spots that weren't dedicated to logistics. This makes everything closer together, and more walkable. So instead of a truck having access to every store, you'd have supplies coming into a block, which would then route to the store inside. Sorta like a mall.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:11 pm UTC

I'd rather be the one making decisions in a dangerous situation than be at the complete mercy of a system that generally makes good decisions. Nothing will ever change this for me. I've been riding a motorcycle for 7 years. I've had 2x4s and strips of rubber picked up and thrown at me, to where I had to duck and swerve around them as they flew at me through mid-air. I've had a ladder fall off the back of a truck. People routinely swerve across two or more lanes without signalling, directly towards me. I am alive and uninjured because of my responses. If I were dead or injured, it would have been because of my responses. Knowing that gives me a peace of mind. Just the thought of not having control over the matter of my own life or death, is suffocating. And I realize that control is willingly abdicated, and can even be resumed in some cases, but it doesn't make it any better for me.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:24 pm UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:Just the thought of not having control over the matter of my own life or death, is suffocating.


I take it you don't fly in aeroplanes? I mean when you're not the pilot, the one in control. Have you never been driven before, as a passenger in a car?! Demanding to be in control the whole time is a weakness, not a strength.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:46 pm UTC

BattleMoose wrote:
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:Just the thought of not having control over the matter of my own life or death, is suffocating.


I take it you don't fly in aeroplanes? I mean when you're not the pilot, the one in control. Have you never been driven before, as a passenger in a car?! Demanding to be in control the whole time is a weakness, not a strength.


I prefer not to ride with other people. I don't think I've ever ridden with a driver whose style of driving I appreciated. I also very rarely ride in airplanes, avoid it when possible, and would feel uncomfortable if I had to do it frequently. I feel more comfortable in that case though because I'm at the mercy of a human's decision making capabilities, which are adaptive and the result of many, many hours of learning and practice. Human learning capacity is also a lot more highly tested than machine learning capacity. So despite the limitations of a human being, I still feel more comfortable with the judgement of one, especially if it's me.

And I don't see that it's a weakness because I don't see what I lose.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby HES » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:52 pm UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:And I don't see that it's a weakness because I don't see what I lose.

It's a weakness because statistically, you're wrong.

Perceived risk is a far cry from actual risk.
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:20 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:And I don't see that it's a weakness because I don't see what I lose.

It's a weakness because statistically, you're wrong.

Perceived risk is a far cry from actual risk.


But that has nothing to do with my reasoning. I don't want to die to a mistake a human being wouldn't make. I also don't want to die screaming, powerless. That's more important to me than a slightly decreased chance of death. And don't tell me that it's not "slight", it absolutely is for me, my risk is not the average human risk, but a conditional probability based on my own skill and experience.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby elasto » Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:25 pm UTC

Can't imagine you'd ever be forced to use an automated car anyhow. Rather it'll be handled by market forces: If a particular model of automated car proves to be ten times safer than a human, it'll cost ten times less to insure.

(And if your Jason Bourne level driving skills are recognised by your insurance carrier, you'll get the same kind of cheap deal.)

Be interesting to know what kind of taxi you'd opt for though - assuming the stats said that the average self-driving car was safer than the average human-driven one...

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 11:34 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Can't imagine you'd ever be forced to use an automated car anyhow. Rather it'll be handled by market forces: If a particular model of automated car proves to be ten times safer than a human, it'll cost ten times less to insure.

(And if your Jason Bourne level driving skills are recognised by your insurance carrier, you'll get the same kind of cheap deal.)

Be interesting to know what kind of taxi you'd opt for though - assuming the stats said that the average self-driving car was safer than the average human-driven one...

Look, there's always gonna be some "freedom" loving dude who absolutely refuses to see any benefit to anything that they aren't holding in their own hands. It's very silly though since their great great grand parents couldn't dream of a world where you rocket through crushed rock at speeds way faster than you were ever evolutionary designed to handle. But then again, since he was born into the age of motorcycles and cars, but not autonomous machines, he thinks motorcycles are normal, but not autonomous machines or walking everywhere.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Sun Jul 03, 2016 11:59 pm UTC

You know, it's really interesting how that's not an argument? Also, it's she/her

Also, for all the benefits of a new technology, you certainly aren't noticing the downsides. Self-driving cars more or less necessitate the existence of self-driving car bombs. The ability to create a bomb has never been 1/10th as complex as the process of trying to coordinate their placement and detonation, especially as a lone wolf. If self-driving cars become ubiquitous, anyone with knowledge of how to hack a vehicle, any script kiddy who looks up the recipe for it, can trivially send off five, ten, twenty bombs to the nearest abortion clinics, gay nightclubs, what have you. Assassinations by hacking will also be popular (and not even necessarily of the target vehicle).

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jul 04, 2016 12:12 am UTC

elasto wrote:ten times less

That'd be "a tenth", yes/no? :P
Spoiler:
Either that or nine times the original positive value, but now negative, or eleven times that of the negative starting point, or zero, and it probably won't be...


Anyway, our fate is already out of our own hands. Rocks might fall and everyone dies, unless we map sufficient Near Earth Asteroids to both appreciate the existence of 'the big one' and spend enough time developing the counter to it (probably send up some more aging actors!). And one generally has to trust that enough people capable of fulfilling the task are fulfililng the task, if you:re not one of those people yourself (in which case, I hope you aren't reading this instead of checking the vital data) and in the end you've got people and automated processes working to prevent a collision that we may well only know is about to happen when we can do nothing but die screaming, powerless to stop it.

It's all a balance, I think. Not sure I'd trust a fully autonomous car more than someone who has passed their obligatory tutorials and tests, to the satisfaction of society, has been driving well enough to not have died or killed others for a tangible amount of time and does not exhibit obvious signs of recklessness or actual malice to the world. But I expect that even a 'newborn' automonomous vehicle actually is already (and will for as long as it isn't challenged by unknowns (like falling rocks!) or a bad firmware update) a safer proposition than even such a human. Human firmware isn't so easily audited, you see, and is subject not only to improving algorithms but also process ruining ones. And they tend not to concentrate solely upon vehicle guidance tasks, too.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby morriswalters » Mon Jul 04, 2016 12:32 am UTC

sardia wrote:If you had a city redesigned, you could remove most of the spots that weren't dedicated to logistics. This makes everything closer together, and more walkable. So instead of a truck having access to every store, you'd have supplies coming into a block, which would then route to the store inside. Sorta like a mall.
In a place long ago and far away they invented downtown pedestrian malls, and got rid of the streets. The end result was that people left the areas where they had done so, go figure. People more or less have given up on malls which is your idea writ small. Until the love affair with cars end, that isn't going to change..
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote: If I were dead or injured, it would have been because of my responses. Knowing that gives me a peace of mind. Just the thought of not having control over the matter of my own life or death, is suffocating. And I realize that control is willingly abdicated, and can even be resumed in some cases, but it doesn't make it any better for me.
As has been pointed out control is an illusion. I've been rear ended three times while stopped at a light. It was really kind of amusing, one second you're sitting there and the next you're sitting somewhere else, with no perceived interval.
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:Also, for all the benefits of a new technology, you certainly aren't noticing the downsides. Self-driving cars more or less necessitate the existence of self-driving car bombs. The ability to create a bomb has never been 1/10th as complex as the process of trying to coordinate their placement and detonation, especially as a lone wolf. If self-driving cars become ubiquitous, anyone with knowledge of how to hack a vehicle, any script kiddy who looks up the recipe for it, can trivially send off five, ten, twenty bombs to the nearest abortion clinics, gay nightclubs, what have you. Assassinations by hacking will also be popular (and not even necessarily of the target vehicle).
That future is coming and it's too late to stop it. And to put a bomb in twenty cars you have to have them where you have the bombs, and if they can hack them you can be sure that someone can track them.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Mon Jul 04, 2016 12:54 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:As has been pointed out control is an illusion. I've been rear ended three times while stopped at a light. It was really kind of amusing, one second you're sitting there and the next you're sitting somewhere else, with no perceived interval.


This is why you leave yourself space/an escape route when coming to a stop, and check your mirrors to watch the person approaching you. Not uncontrollable.

morriswalters wrote:That future is coming and it's too late to stop it. And to put a bomb in twenty cars you have to have them where you have the bombs, and if they can hack them you can be sure that someone can track them.


The tracking method could be hacked, either electronically or physically. That means in the worst case there's a window in which the cars could be moved and the tracking hacked. The identity of the cars could be established, but it would mean nothing if the targets were close enough. You could also hack decoy as well cars and obfuscate the drivers licenses by some quick and dirty method like spray paint, which would buy further time. You would basically just need a parking lot with many cars of the same make and model, which means a dealership, a rental agency... a post office or package delivery distribution point... um... the places where they keep buses... surely there are other examples but I can't think of them atm.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby commodorejohn » Mon Jul 04, 2016 1:46 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:That future is coming and it's too late to stop it.

Well, we could ban remotely-controllable vehicles from public roadways. But that wouldn't be futurist enough, I suppose. (Not to mention that it would mean the cops couldn't ask OnStar to turn off somebody's car for them.)

And to put a bomb in twenty cars you have to have them where you have the bombs,

Like, say, a parking lot? In the middle of a Saturday, when there's hundreds of cars there and everybody is in the mall bumming around leaving their vehicles completely unattended?

and if they can hack them you can be sure that someone can track them.

It's a possibility, but then again, how're we doing with apprehending those "Guardians of Peace" folks? Or say some bright young enterpreneur opens up a for-hire car-hacking service in Russia, where the policy on extradition and electronic crime is "fuck you, come back next week if you need to be told fuck you again"?
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Mon Jul 04, 2016 3:26 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:In a place long ago and far away they invented downtown pedestrian malls, and got rid of the streets. The end result was that people left the areas where they had done so, go figure.


Examples include?

Self-driving cars more or less necessitate the existence of self-driving car bombs.


When the deaths of bombing approach 1% of road deaths, Ill start being concerned about it. Lets focus on the people dying?

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby Dr34m(4+(h3r » Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:51 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:When the deaths of bombing approach 1% of road deaths, Ill start being concerned about it. Lets focus on the people dying?


Road deaths are somewhat evenly distributed. Bombing deaths will target specific groups. The political consequences of car accident deaths are non-existent, while the political consequences of bombing deaths are vast. The latter concerns the character of a nation and potentially has a huge impact on its role in international affairs. You can't use car accidents to fuel fascist hysteria. They'll never lead to war, they'll never lead to loss of liberty; except apparently freedom of movement, causing all the rest of this.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby morriswalters » Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:53 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:
morriswalters wrote:In a place long ago and far away they invented downtown pedestrian malls, and got rid of the streets. The end result was that people left the areas where they had done so, go figure.


Examples include?
In Louisville, Kentucky they closed the main drag downtown in a fit of the future. About eight to ten blocks in the heart of the downtown. It sunk like a lead brick. This would have been in the 60's in what is kindly called urban renewal.
commodorejohn wrote:Like, say, a parking lot? In the middle of a Saturday, when there's hundreds of cars there and everybody is in the mall bumming around leaving their vehicles completely unattended?
You seem to know very little about the in and outs of Mall parking lots. But that is a lot of people doing some very picky work in public.
Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:This is why you leave yourself space/an escape route when coming to a stop, and check your mirrors to watch the person approaching you. Not uncontrollable.
You can't watch everywhere at once and at least in one of my accidents I was part of a herd with nowhere to go and nothing to do. That one is a longer story than I am willing to spend time with.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:14 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:
BattleMoose wrote:
morriswalters wrote:In a place long ago and far away they invented downtown pedestrian malls, and got rid of the streets. The end result was that people left the areas where they had done so, go figure.


Examples include?
In Louisville, Kentucky they closed the main drag downtown in a fit of the future. About eight to ten blocks in the heart of the downtown. It sunk like a lead brick. This would have been in the 60's in what is kindly called urban renewal.


I was hoping to learn what happened. Why the did what they did and why it failed. From some googling it appears that Louisville was in very serious decline and the renewal project was much more than just a pedestrian street mall, involving relocating people. If the purpose of this example is to suggest that pedestrian street malls aren't popular, well, it doesn't support that at all.

Regardless there are *very many* popular pedestrian street malls in the USA alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedestria ... ted_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_Street_Mall

I have actually been to the Pearl Street Mall, and it was a very lovely public space to be in. They are popular, commercially viable and not going anywhere.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby sardia » Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:57 am UTC

Dr34m(4+(h3r wrote:You know, it's really interesting how that's not an argument? Also, it's she/her

Also, for all the benefits of a new technology, you certainly aren't noticing the downsides. Self-driving cars more or less necessitate the existence of self-driving car bombs. The ability to create a bomb has never been 1/10th as complex as the process of trying to coordinate their placement and detonation, especially as a lone wolf. If self-driving cars become ubiquitous, anyone with knowledge of how to hack a vehicle, any script kiddy who looks up the recipe for it, can trivially send off five, ten, twenty bombs to the nearest abortion clinics, gay nightclubs, what have you. Assassinations by hacking will also be popular (and not even necessarily of the target vehicle).

It's a valid response to your concerns. Look how similar it is to every previous generation's complaint about the latest technology rocking our boat called life. Everyone calls the past outdated, the present ok and the future terrifying. Maybe autonomous cars will be a special moment where you're completely right and we start using cars to assassinate political dissidents and minorities. As for the potential hacking threats, that ship has sailed. Hackers already can threaten our entire power supply/water/hospitals/infrastructure. That's way more threatening than you could do with a bunch of hacked cars and it's a problem today.
As for the freedom/control argument, how would you confirm if any of that is true? Are there scientific studies?

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby commodorejohn » Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:08 am UTC

morriswalters wrote:You seem to know very little about the in and outs of Mall parking lots. But that is a lot of people doing some very picky work in public.

I know that they're just one of many places in which J. Random Troublemaker can find huge numbers of cars relatively unattended! And sure, it's totally possible that any particular mall falls into the intersection of the sets of "actually has security cameras in the parking lot" and "pays a rent-a-cop enough to actually pay attention to them," but then there's plenty more places where that's not the case!

Also, can I just say that I love how every argument for self-driving cars eventually winds up back at the most basic defense of "well, at least they haven't killed as many people as human drivers! (Yet!)" It's wonderful.
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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby BattleMoose » Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:19 am UTC

commodorejohn wrote:Also, can I just say that I love how every argument for self-driving cars eventually winds up back at the most basic defense of "well, at least they haven't killed as many people as human drivers! (Yet!)" It's wonderful.


Your sarcasm is noted. But fewer deaths should be the goal. Any change that results in fewer deaths, is demonstrably a change for the better. It is perhaps the most valid of arguments. You are correct, fewer deaths is wonderful.

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Re: First Tesla Autopilot Death

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:26 am UTC

Self-driving cars have way more arguments in favour than simply the avoidance of the 1,250,000 road deaths that occur yearly (which is the equivalent of a 9/11 happening somewhere in the world every single day!) Personal freedom will be enriched - whether it's for the disabled, those wanting to travel long distances without stopping, or even just for those wanting to travel drunk. Owning a car is also becoming increasingly unaffordable for the youth through rocketing insurance costs. Self-driving cars will change all that forever.

Yes, there are other options today but they all have drawbacks - whether it's the expense of taxis or the inconvenience/danger of public transportation.


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