Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

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Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:15 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/hu ... ew-us.html
After killing it's way past Haiti, the warm waters have reenergized this monster storm into a category 4. This storm is really dangerous because slower moving storms means the buildings have to endure storm surges and winds longer. If you know anyone dumb enough to stay, you should get them to leave.
Hurricane Matthew Approaches Florida; Governor Urges 1.5 Million to Flee. Taking aim at Central Florida’s Atlantic coast, Hurricane Matthew intensified Thursday into a Category 4 storm with winds of at least 140 miles per hour and strengthening. The storm was blamed for the deaths of more than 280 people in Haiti.

“Extremely dangerous, life-threatening weather conditions are forecast in the next 24 hours,” the National Weather Service warned Thursday afternoon. “Airborne debris lofted by extreme winds will be capable of breaching structures, unprotected windows and vehicles.” “You need to leave. Evacuate, evacuate, evacuate.”“This storm will kill you. Time is running out.”


*Climate Change probably causes more devastating storms but the data is not straightforward. "The issue might appear to be simple: Warmer oceans provide more energy for storms, so storms should get more numerous and mighty. But other factors have complicated the picture, he said, including atmospheric changes that can affect wind shear, a factor that keeps cyclones from forming."

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:33 am UTC

It'll be pretty incredible (and potentially incredibly bad) if it manages to do a full turnaround and smack central Florida again.

It's so depressing that NC's governor outlawed taking into account climate change when making prediction models for sea level rise for state scientists. Yet, he's happy to warn us based on the advice of meteorologists.*

*Who are, yes, not the same as climatologists but still.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby svenman » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:53 am UTC

Liri wrote:It'll be pretty incredible (and potentially incredibly bad) if it manages to do a full turnaround and smack central Florida again.

As I understand current predictions, by that time Matthew will have weakened to below hurricane status, so that doesn't seem like a major worry. The main damage will have happened before then.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:06 am UTC

$5 says that after the storm finishes, Florida will STILL be in a drought.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:47 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:$5 says that after the storm finishes, Florida will STILL be in a drought.

That's not how recharging the water table works, and you know better. Also, aren't storm surges mostly nonpotable seawater?

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Angua » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:50 am UTC

You should see the videos of the storm surge in Nevis (1000 miles away from Haiti). It was pretty incredible.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Dauric » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:03 am UTC

Best wishes and good luck to our forumites in the path of Matthew.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:41 pm UTC

Krugman on Klimate.
Paul Krugman wrote:Polling suggests that millennial voters, in particular, care a lot about environmental protection and renewable energy. But it also suggests that more than 40 percent of young voters believe that there is no difference between the candidates on these issues.

Man that is infuriating.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby morriswalters » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:54 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:$5 says that after the storm finishes, Florida will STILL be in a drought.

That's not how recharging the water table works, and you know better. Also, aren't storm surges mostly nonpotable seawater?
I believe he's talking about monsoon type rains.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:23 pm UTC

Eh, tying individual weather events to climate is...sketchy. It's the same sort of logic that results in "global warming is a lie" whenever there's a bad snowstorm. It's just not on the right scale at all.

Liri wrote:Krugman on Klimate.
Paul Krugman wrote:Polling suggests that millennial voters, in particular, care a lot about environmental protection and renewable energy. But it also suggests that more than 40 percent of young voters believe that there is no difference between the candidates on these issues.

Man that is infuriating.


I do believe that both of them care a great deal more about personal power and corporate sponsors than the environment. Clinton will probably feel obligated to throw more sops to her base, though.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Angua » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:27 pm UTC

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:33 pm UTC

Cue the Darwin Award For Political Beliefs amongst the stay-at-home conservatives?

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Diadem » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:58 pm UTC

It's a bit unclear to me how dangerous this thing is. I guess they wouldn't be doing a massive evacuation if the danger wasn't real. But 140 mph wind speeds doesn't sound so bad. That's not that much above a run-of-the-mill autumn storm. You wouldn't want to be outside, and just to be sure stay away from windows, but it doesn't sound like a huge risk.

A storm surge is a bigger problem, but that effects only a very small strip along the coast doesn't it? Florida is not below sea level as far as I'm aware.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Angua » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

For a hurricane classification, those windspeeds are sustained. It's not just gusts up to that. There is also a lot of rain and flooding that happens from that point of view. You can get small tornados within the hurricane that can take out a few houses (they tend to just bounce up and down for a bit, but can do a lot of damage where they touch down. Also, unless you have hurricane clamps or keep the house well ventilated (generally by keeping a window open on the leeward side of the house - obviously you have to change windows when the hurricane passes over you), the pressure differential can take the roof off.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

I think the key point is the sustained winds though. It's pretty different to strong gusts of wind.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Dauric » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:06 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:It's a bit unclear to me how dangerous this thing is. I guess they wouldn't be doing a massive evacuation if the danger wasn't real. But 140 mph wind speeds doesn't sound so bad. That's not that much above a run-of-the-mill autumn storm. You wouldn't want to be outside, and just to be sure stay away from windows, but it doesn't sound like a huge risk.

A storm surge is a bigger problem, but that effects only a very small strip along the coast doesn't it? Florida is not below sea level as far as I'm aware.


(ninja'd but wikipedia link below)

Category 4 is 140 mph -sustained-, the winds can gust significantly higher.

The categorization for hurricanes

Category 4 Hurricanes wrote:Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are common. Mobile and manufactured homes are often flattened. Most trees, except for the heartiest, are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. These storms cause extensive beach erosion, while terrain may be flooded far inland. Total and long-lived electrical and water losses are to be expected, possibly for many weeks.[5]
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby thunk » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:10 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Eh, tying individual weather events to climate is...sketchy. It's the same sort of logic that results in "global warming is a lie" whenever there's a bad snowstorm. It's just not on the right scale at all.


I'm actually with Tyndmyr on this one. AGW is screwing with our climate in unpredictable ways in general, but specific storms, as NOAA warns us, can't be directly ascribed to it. And the climate models have predicted various different things with hurricanes--either more TCs, or fewer but stronger TCs, or TCs in different places, etc. It seems like the second and third of these is happening.

Angua wrote:For a hurricane classification, those windspeeds are sustained. It's not just gusts up to that. There is also a lot of rain and flooding that happens from that point of view. You can get small tornados within the hurricane that can take out a few houses (they tend to just bounce up and down for a bit, but can do a lot of damage where they touch down. Also, unless you have hurricane clamps or keep the house well ventilated (generally by keeping a window open on the leeward side of the house - obviously you have to change windows when the hurricane passes over you), the pressure differential can take the roof off.


Yes--sustained winds are a bigger deal. As one of the figures in What If? shows, 120 mph winds are the limit for standing on level ground. Higher than that and you're blown away, never mind the debris moving at that speed.
Autumn storms usually get only to 60-70 mph, with 100 in the extreme cases. Even that can cause significant wind damage and power losses in many places.
Though houses are not airtight, and roofs being taken off are more due to the wind getting under the house and removing the roof from its supports than to any pressure differential.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:14 pm UTC

I don't think run of the mill autumn storms routinely cause billions of dollars in damage.

Hundreds were already killed in Haiti. It's vaguely insulting to say it isn't a huge risk.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby addams » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:57 pm UTC

Angua wrote:You should see the videos of the storm surge in Nevis (1000 miles away from Haiti). It was pretty incredible.

Yes.
We should.
Will you add a link?
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Zamfir » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:01 pm UTC

Diadem wrote: But 140 mph wind speeds doesn't sound so bad. That's not that much above a run-of-the-mill autumn storm.


For comparison, the highest reference windload in the Dutch building code is about 70mph, sustained for 1 hour. That's for a building directly on the coast, and only near Den Helder. i think 75mph, sustained, is the about the heaviest storm ever recorded in the country.

140mph is 4 times as strong - way beyond the safety factors of buildings. Such a storm would destroy entire cities here on wind pressure alone. God knows what it would do to sea barriers.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:17 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Eh, tying individual weather events to climate is...sketchy
We might be able to talk about "Global Weirding", more than 'definite increase in storms/storm power', but without a comparison it's difficult to see what we're otherwise destined to have had, except statistically, so 'random1 noise' might or might not happen.

Also as greater attention is paid to a greater detail of weather, maybe we're more aware of outliers.

Personally I subscribe to "more energy in the system makes for a more (sic) chaotic system", truly, but because it isn't a easy and plain comparison between two independent systems, one affected by mankind and one not, there's always going to be wriggle room for those determined to be skeptical for whatever reasons.

1 Using the word 'random' slightly wrong, but not as badly as in http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37585247

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:03 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:It's a bit unclear to me how dangerous this thing is. I guess they wouldn't be doing a massive evacuation if the danger wasn't real. But 140 mph wind speeds doesn't sound so bad.


A: Its a hurricane. That's sustained winds.

B: 120mph is Terminal Velocity for a skydiver. Category 4 Hurricanes are literally faster than terminal velocity. Stand outside and you will be thrown around like a ragdoll (as are the dumpsters and trees around you). These are the kinds of storms that will level entire cities if they hit.

Any hurricane is a monstrosity actually. Category 4 is on the higher end of the scale. Fortunately, Matthew weakened to Category 3 and the eye of the storm moved east at the last minute. So the destruction on Florida won't be nearly as bad as the worst-case scenario. Its still going to cause widespread destruction however.

800+ Deaths in Haiti so far, and the storm isn't over.

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Do you see the size of that Tree Trunk? These ain't small trees that Matthew is knocking over.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Angua » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:15 pm UTC

addams wrote:
Angua wrote:You should see the videos of the storm surge in Nevis (1000 miles away from Haiti). It was pretty incredible.

Yes.
We should.
Will you add a link?

All I've got is facebook. Hope it works.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Diadem » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:37 pm UTC

Angua wrote:For a hurricane classification, those windspeeds are sustained.

Ah, that is rather an important difference. Thanks for the correction. Makes a lot more sense then that they are so deadly.
(Thanks everybody else as well who made the same correction).
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby sardia » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:27 am UTC

Diadem wrote:
Angua wrote:For a hurricane classification, those windspeeds are sustained.

Ah, that is rather an important difference. Thanks for the correction. Makes a lot more sense then that they are so deadly.
(Thanks everybody else as well who made the same correction).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/win ... e-matthew/
It's not the wind speed, it's the water that kills. Spread over a large area, water kills half the people who die in a hurricane.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby addams » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:15 am UTC

Angua wrote:
addams wrote:
Angua wrote:You should see the videos of the storm surge in Nevis (1000 miles away from Haiti). It was pretty incredible.

Yes.
We should.
Will you add a link?

All I've got is Facebook. Hope it works.

Yes. It worked.
Nevis looks like a sweet place.

The people of Haiti need help.
It is time for the people of the U.S. to take in Haiti's people.

They are our neighbors. They are a people in great need.
After so much destruction and loss, many will want to go.

It is right and proper for us to welcome them to live in a safer place.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby duckshirt » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:58 am UTC

sardia wrote:*Climate Change probably causes more devastating storms but the data is not straightforward.

Data is not straightfoward, as in, it doesn't support the hypothesis at all.

Climate alarmism has become a religious cult.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby elasto » Sun Oct 09, 2016 8:25 am UTC

duckshirt wrote:Data is not straightfoward, as in, it doesn't support the hypothesis at all.

Climate alarmism has become a religious cult.

at all?

The current research into the effects of climate change on tropical storms demonstrates not only the virtues and transparency of the scientific method at work, but rebuts the frequent suggestion that scientists fit their findings to a pre-determined agenda in support of climate change. In the case of storm frequency, there is no consensus and reputable scientists have two diametrically opposed theories about increasing frequencies of such events.

The background to these enquiries stems from a simple observation: extra heat in the air or the oceans is a form of energy, and storms are driven by such energy. What we do not know is whether we might see more storms as a result of extra energy or, as other researchers believe, the storms may grow more intense, but the number might actually diminish.

What do the records show? According to the Pew Centre, “Globally, there is an average of about 90 tropical storms a year”. The IPCC AR4 report (2007) says regarding global tropical storms: "There is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones."

But this graph, also from the Pew Centre, shows a 40% increase in North Atlantic tropical storms over the historic maximum of the mid-1950, which at the time was considered extreme:

But while the numbers are not contested, their significance most certainly is. Another study considered how this information was being collected, and research suggested that the increase in reported storms was due to improved monitoring rather than more storms actually taking place.

And to cap it off, two recent peer-reviewed studies completely contradict each other. One paper predicts considerably more storms due to global warming. Another paper suggests the exact opposite – that there will be fewer storms in the future.

What can we conclude from these studies? About hurricane frequency – not much; the jury is out, as they say. About climate change, we can say that these differing approaches are the very stuff of good science, and the science clearly isn’t settled! It is also obvious that researchers are not shying away from refuting associations with climate change, so we can assume they don’t think their funding or salaries are jeopardised by research they believe fails to support the case for AGW. The scientific method is alive and well.

So far, all we’ve managed is to document here is what we don’t know for sure yet. But we do know there is extra energy in the system now, so could it have any other effects on tropical storms? Here, the science is far less equivocal, and there is a broad consensus that storms are increasing in strength, or severity. This attribute, called the Power Dissipation Index, measures the duration and intensity (wind speed) of storms, and research has found that since the mid-1970s, there has been an increase in the energy of storms.

Recent research has shown that we are experiencing more storms with higher wind speeds, and these storms will be more destructive, last longer and make landfall more frequently than in the past. Because this phenomenon is strongly associated with sea surface temperatures, it is reasonable to suggest a strong probability that the increase in storm intensity and climate change are linked.


If careful, balanced and skeptical application of the scientific method is 'being part of a cult' call me a religious nutter any day.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby addams » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:00 pm UTC

Mathew left Refugees behind him.
The people of Haiti are Refugees.

The place they live is not a safe place for them to live.
Taking them bottled water is a nice gesture. Good us.

The medically compromised need to be airlifted out.
Why are we not airlifting the medically compromised?

For many of the people, Haiti may be a home they are willing to leave.
They need to be offered homes and help in a new and different place.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew: Climate Change Strikes Back

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:28 pm UTC

That is, I think, essentially saying that it isn't settled. And of course, that's talking about trends. And it's fair to observe that even much of trend attribution is premature given the state of the science....

But even if we take trends as a given, it still wouldn't be quite right to attribute individual events to climate change. I don't think it is a religious cult so much as it is a persistent human misunderstanding. People are bad at handling probabilities. It's simply not as intuitive for us as direct cause/event chains. It's not limited to either side of the global warming discussion, people on both sides do exactly the same thing.


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