Trump presidency

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Re: US President

Postby gmalivuk » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:49 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Xeio wrote:
maybeagnostic wrote:She also won the popular vote by a lot less than fivethirtyeight predicted though so their method was off on that as well. If anything that is worse for their method because being 1.2pp off on a predicted 3.5pp spread for a very close race is quite a bit. Besides its not like they accidentally made their model predict the popular vote and turned out to be tricked by this Electoral College thing, they already knew exactly how the system worked, based their sophisticated model on it and predicted 70% chance of Hillary winning when she actually lost in a landslide (of the 538 Electoral Votes). It's the difference between a forecast of 70% chance of blizzard being followed by cloudy weather with some light snowfall versus bright sunny weather with not a cloud in the sky and temperatures well above freezing. Alternatively it's like the difference between predicting 70% chance of Brazil winning a semi-final only to get them lose to Germany 1-7.
The election wasn't a landslide even by electoral college counts though. You would have to consider almost every election a landslide to consider Trump's victory a landslide (except maybe John Quincy Adams), and you have to totally ignore the popular vote to even try it.

It was a very close election decided by less than 100k votes in a few states. 00.08% of voters could have swung the election.

Where did you get that .0008 number from? Last I checked it was 100x that number(1% loss), still close, but not that easy for Democrats to come back from.
100k votes is 0.08% of the total number of votes. Where you got your 1% or 100x numbers are more mysterious.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:18 am UTC

He misread 00.08 for .0008.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:34 am UTC

00.08% = 0.0008

That's not where the problem was.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:41 am UTC

gmalivuk wrote:00.08% = 0.0008

That's not where the problem was.

You're right, .08% is only 10x smaller than 1%.

Trump declares that The Affordable Care Act should die sooner rather than later.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... s-nothing/
His executive order is mainly directed at the HHS agency, which happens to control who gets exemptions from the individual mandate. That means that everybody there just got the memo to do everything they can to dismantle The Affordable Care Act instead of waiting for a replacement. Overall, it's very symbolic, but meaningful guide to the future for healthcare.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:10 am UTC

gmalivuk wrote:00.08% = 0.0008

That's not where the problem was.
You are correct, I lost the %. My apologies.
edit
Doubly embarrassed I missed a value as well. :oops: .
Last edited by morriswalters on Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:25 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:22 am UTC

sardia wrote:His executive order is mainly directed at the HHS agency, which happens to control who gets exemptions from the individual mandate. That means that everybody there just got the memo to do everything they can to dismantle The Affordable Care Act instead of waiting for a replacement. Overall, it's very symbolic, but meaningful guide to the future for healthcare.
What happens if the HHS ignores the memo?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:55 am UTC

ucim wrote:
sardia wrote:His executive order is mainly directed at the HHS agency, which happens to control who gets exemptions from the individual mandate. That means that everybody there just got the memo to do everything they can to dismantle The Affordable Care Act instead of waiting for a replacement. Overall, it's very symbolic, but meaningful guide to the future for healthcare.
What happens if the HHS ignores the memo?

Jose

Well, it'll be his appointee in the top spot there.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:00 am UTC

Liri wrote:Well, it'll be his appointee in the top spot there.
... and if his subordinates ignore the memo? I suppose they could all be fired; would that happen?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:39 am UTC

ucim wrote:
Liri wrote:Well, it'll be his appointee in the top spot there.
... and if his subordinates ignore the memo? I suppose they could all be fired; would that happen?

Jose

Are you being dense? Trump purged all the Obama appointees some time ago. You would slowly lose your job after being quickly replaced. The rest are bureaucrats, they aren't going to risk their pensions just to save a few million insurance plans. This isn't a war crime, just a very Republican thing to do.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Xeio » Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:05 am UTC

sardia wrote:Where did you get that .0008 number from? Last I checked it was 100x that number(1% loss), still close, but not that easy for Democrats to come back from.
<100,000 of 128,000,000 is roughly .000078, or 00.08%.

Unless you mean only as a percentage of the votes in swing state...? That would be higher, but if we're talking about the election as a whole and whether it's a landslide it's a pretty tiny portion of voters that "decided" who won.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby PeteP » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:09 am UTC

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/21/media/sean-spicer-press-secretary-statement/index.html
"This was the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period," Spicer said, contradicting all available data.

Aerial photos have indicated that former president Barack Obama's first inauguration attracted a much larger crowd. Nielsen ratings show that Obama also had a bigger television audience.

Spicer said, without any evidence, that some photos were "intentionally framed" to downplay Trump's crowd.

[...]

"This is the first time in our nation's history that floor coverings have been used to protect the grass on the Mall," Spicer said, claiming that this "had the effect of highlighting areas people were not standing whereas in years past the grass eliminated this visual."

In fact, coverings were used for Obama's second inauguration in 2013.
Look forward to years of blatant lies about even the most inconsequential things.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:39 am UTC

If they feel the need to lie completely about an audience turnout, on day 1, then I can't trust them at all over anything else they say. It may be a small detail but the meaning of their behavior speaks volumes.

This is the same man/team that constantly goes on about fake news and how everyone is lying. About how people don't trust their government anymore.

Way to lead by example, then :?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby RCT Bob » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:09 pm UTC

It's indeed not professional of them to do this. I think it's scary and endangering to free press. And although the CNN might be biased (they probably are a little bit after the whole 'fake news' stuff), the BBC also basically claims Sean Spicer is full of bs, and showcase their concern. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38707722

A worrying debut: Analysis by David Willis, BBC News, Washington
In his first ever White House briefing, Sean Spicer rounded on reporters in a manner few here can remember.
Echoing President Trump's charge of dishonesty, Mr Spicer issued a thinly-veiled warning to reporters covering the Trump presidency, saying the new administration intended to "hold the press accountable".
Precisely what he means by that is unclear, but the statement has left many veterans of the White House press pool deeply concerned.
Ultimately, of course, it begs the broader question - what will prove most unpalatable to this new administration: the messenger or the message?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Angua » Sun Jan 22, 2017 5:52 pm UTC

Crabtree's bludgeon: “no set of mutually inconsistent observations can exist for which some human intellect cannot conceive a coherent explanation, however complicated”
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

It's like a comedy roller-coaster but I want off.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:24 pm UTC

Angua wrote:"alternative facts"


I'm trying to think of a good analogy for this but I simply can't. The word propaganda comes to mind and that may be a bit too strong, but I certainly don't like where this is heading.

A fact is a fact. If something is a wrong fact, then it's not a fact but an incorrect statement or claim. There can't be such a thing as an alternative fact.

If I go to the shops and something costs $3, then that's a fact. Now let's try to buy this thing and say "I'm here with the alternative fact, it costs $2", I wonder what the cashier is going to say about that.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:33 pm UTC

Plasma_Wolf wrote:
Angua wrote:"alternative facts"


I'm trying to think of a good analogy for this but I simply can't. The word propaganda comes to mind and that may be a bit too strong, but I certainly don't like where this is heading.

A fact is a fact. If something is a wrong fact, then it's not a fact but an incorrect statement or claim. There can't be such a thing as an alternative fact.

If I go to the shops and something costs $3, then that's a fact. Now let's try to buy this thing and say "I'm here with the alternative fact, it costs $2", I wonder what the cashier is going to say about that.

This isn't about facts, it's about power. They have the power to push a certain worldview, "i'm awesome and I have tons of supporters" and you do not. It's as simple as that. The Republicans will continue to do that until the reality is too much to deny and the percentage of people who disbelieve causes politicians to break rank. Until that happens, expect more of this. What you should be more concerned about is if the economy will allow Trump to sustain his lies. It's uncertain, but it's really possible that Trump improves the lives of the small segment of swing voters that elected him. So far, nothing I've seen has been anything but window dressing. There is a concern that whites w/o degrees will fall for the propaganda, but I need to see more evidence to be certain, most likely in the form of approval polls or signs that GOP breaking rank with Trump.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:35 pm UTC

There's "facts" and then there's "narratives". And when facts contradict the narrative we want, we claim that the facts are wrong.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:43 pm UTC

It should make you question if everybody shares your definition of fact. And in a practical sense you shouldn't expect jackasses to not bray. Trump's policy has been consistent from day one. If attacked, then attack back. And never apologize. And it seems to work.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby RCT Bob » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:53 pm UTC

The most concerning thing for me isn't even that they tell falsehoods, the most concerning thing is that Sean Spicer talked about 'holding the press accountable' for 'fake news'. That right there is a thinly veiled threat at free independent press and opens the gateways to much more sinister propaganda than fidgeting a few visitor numbers at an inauguration. I don't think the White House has the means to criminally charge or sue news organisations for reporting 'fake news', at least not without proving in court that it is indeed fake. But combine this with Trump refusing to answer questions of some news organisations on his first press conference, and realise they do have the power to pretty much ban news organisations that do not cooperate from well, doing their job. And that threat in itself might be sufficient for some news organisations to 'stay in line'.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zamfir » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:12 pm UTC

That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:20 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.


You mean Trump will "pivot"?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:46 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies.


Could you cite an example? Because most of the "loonies" actually deserve that title, at best ignoring context and disregarding facts and at worst making things up.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:56 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.
The problem is this administration sees "overly critical" as including things like accurate reports of inauguration attendance.

This is not normal or "standard", stop trying to pretend it is.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby morriswalters » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:14 pm UTC

Most administrations couldn't break the media lock. And we just reached the point where we have produced a politician who is media savvy enough to know, that the truth is much more fungible than people think it is. And given him the tools.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:18 pm UTC

The embarrassment and anger they must be feeling does provide no little satisfaction, at least. The Congresspeople not in attendance should have insisted that their chairs be set out and empty. Or have not forewarned anyone they wouldn't be going.

And yeah, alternative facts isn't normal.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby KnightExemplar » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:54 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.
The problem is this administration sees "overly critical" as including things like accurate reports of inauguration attendance.

This is not normal or "standard", stop trying to pretend it is.


Regardless, its the new normal. I don't have any expectations for the Trump Administration to change things. The question is what tools do the Press have to combat Trump?

If enough people care about the issue, then in 4 years, we'll get a new President to define the new normal. The thing is, Trump is overplaying his hand here, even within the Republican party, Trump's "approval rating" and general trust with the public is at historic lows. So if Trump continues to play sketchy politician (after promising people that he wouldn't be a sketchy politician), then he'll leave himself vulnerable in a few years.

Liri wrote:And yeah, alternative facts isn't normal.


Yeah, except the leader of the Birther movement was literally elected President. The question is if enough people will care in four years to actually vote him out of office, or maybe in two years to vote for Congressmen who promise to go against the President.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

I'm beginning to wonder if it might be a good idea to close the US borders and quarantine the country for a few years. The rest of the world can just point out that we had an ebola case a while back.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:25 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if it might be a good idea to close the US borders and quarantine the country for a few years. The rest of the world can just point out that we had an ebola case a while back.

Thats what the nationalists want right now, that way the jobs go to Americans, and minorities stay minorities. I've also talked to a lot of nonracists, if you get past the Trumplike bravado of rah rah it's gonna be great, you get a lot of "life will get better because there's gonna be a ton of jobs". The arguments that higher prices(importing jobs is only worth it if the customer pays higher prices or you lower wage costs or automation) from domesticating industry is good for the economy is hard to fight.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Vahir » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:13 am UTC

2016 was the low point for the worldwide left, I think. This is as low as you can get; the good news is that means you can only go up. I expect 2017 will be the year when Brexit fantasies crash into the earth, when Trump is eaten alive by public opinion, and so on.

The last recession was 2008. We're due for another soon, according to economists:

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -recession

And if China's teetering and the economic record of the far right are any indication, I believe it. At least the downturn will probably hit when these wacos are in power, so they'll be the ones discredited by it. You know what? Let's be optimistic.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:34 am UTC

ALTERNATIVE FACTS






That's an interesting method. Slightly less spooky than Agent Cooper throwing rocks.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:48 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Thesh wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if it might be a good idea to close the US borders and quarantine the country for a few years. The rest of the world can just point out that we had an ebola case a while back.

Thats what the nationalists want right now, that way the jobs go to Americans, and minorities stay minorities. I've also talked to a lot of nonracists, if you get past the Trumplike bravado of rah rah it's gonna be great, you get a lot of "life will get better because there's gonna be a ton of jobs". The arguments that higher prices(importing jobs is only worth it if the customer pays higher prices or you lower wage costs or automation) from domesticating industry is good for the economy is hard to fight.


Just ask them if they like not being able to buy anything with the money those jobs pay.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:57 am UTC

Vahir wrote:
Spoiler:
2016 was the low point for the worldwide left, I think. This is as low as you can get; the good news is that means you can only go up. I expect 2017 will be the year when Brexit fantasies crash into the earth, when Trump is eaten alive by public opinion, and so on.

The last recession was 2008. We're due for another soon, according to economists:

Image
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -recession


And if China's teetering and the economic record of the far right are any indication, I believe it. At least the downturn will probably hit when these wacos are in power, so they'll be the ones discredited by it. You know what? Let's be optimistic.
Your premise is bad. Nobody can predict when a recession is coming other than to say a recession will come sometime, barring special circumstances like seizing all the private businesses. There's no such thing as "due for a recession". Hell, the best economists we have don't even know if we are going through a recession if it already hits them in the face.*
Do you remember the George W Bush tax cuts? He got a massive tax cut through, which stimulated the economy for a couple years. Nobody realized he was essentially looting future budgets to pay the rich until the crash of 2008. That took 8 years just to figure out Republicans are bad at governing. You should set your expectation that Trump WILL be reelected. The incumbency bonus is pretty big, 2% roughly. It's gonna take Democrats years to take back the House, and then another 8 years to grow a perfect liberal politician with a uplifting lifetime story.

*Economists often don't know a recession is in progress until several months after it starts. It's because all the comprehensive data is backwards looking and takes months to compile.

CU, the idea of inflation always seems to slip their minds when they talk about Trump. Anyway, I'll see if it comes up again. I had a ban on political talk since Trump got sworn in. I did not enjoy being yelled at about 'them whiny liberals' and 'cheap immigrants'.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby RCT Bob » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:13 am UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:
Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.
The problem is this administration sees "overly critical" as including things like accurate reports of inauguration attendance.

This is not normal or "standard", stop trying to pretend it is.


Regardless, its the new normal. I don't have any expectations for the Trump Administration to change things. The question is what tools do the Press have to combat Trump?

If enough people care about the issue, then in 4 years, we'll get a new President to define the new normal. The thing is, Trump is overplaying his hand here, even within the Republican party, Trump's "approval rating" and general trust with the public is at historic lows. So if Trump continues to play sketchy politician (after promising people that he wouldn't be a sketchy politician), then he'll leave himself vulnerable in a few years.

Liri wrote:And yeah, alternative facts isn't normal.


Yeah, except the leader of the Birther movement was literally elected President. The question is if enough people will care in four years to actually vote him out of office, or maybe in two years to vote for Congressmen who promise to go against the President.


The president and the white house are not the ones who define what 'normal' is though. That is society as a whole. As it is right now, the outcry not only nationally but internationally as well is so large that it is still far from normal. Only when an outcry to events like these is negligible you could consider them normal in my opinion.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby BeerBottle » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:03 am UTC

Vahir wrote:And if China's teetering and the economic record of the far right are any indication, I believe it. At least the downturn will probably hit when these wacos are in power, so they'll be the ones discredited by it. You know what? Let's be optimistic.
Since 1910, the US economy has suffered a recession within 12 months of a two term president leaving office, with one exception, GHW Bush's recession started 17 months after he assumed office following Reagan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-1 ... ssion-2017

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:15 am UTC

RCT Bob wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:
Yeah, except the leader of the Birther movement was literally elected President. The question is if enough people will care in four years to actually vote him out of office, or maybe in two years to vote for Congressmen who promise to go against the President.


The president and the white house are not the ones who define what 'normal' is though. That is society as a whole. As it is right now, the outcry not only nationally but internationally as well is so large that it is still far from normal. Only when an outcry to events like these is negligible you could consider them normal in my opinion.


Ehhh.... I'm not sure that it's the "new normal", but we're edging closer to it as a species. International demonstrations over Trump aren't really the metric of importance, but rather policies and politics in those countries like the Brexit vote in England and the rise of so-called "populist" right-wing leaders gaining traction across Europe, as well as Trump as the "PotUS Elect"* supporting/legitimizing the likes of Putin.

*Being specific as I haven't heard anything about Trump supporting Putin since the inauguration.

Interesting watch: Frontline: The Divided States of America
A Frontline documentary about the sharply partisan political environment since Obama's first term. Tomorrow's episode (Jan 24'th) Trump's Road to the White House delves into his campaign and how he ended up being PotUS.
We're in the traffic-chopper over the XKCD boards where there's been a thread-derailment. A Liquified Godwin spill has evacuated threads in a fourty-post radius of the accident, Lolcats and TVTropes have broken free of their containers. It is believed that the Point has perished.

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sardia
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:07 pm UTC

BeerBottle wrote:
Vahir wrote:And if China's teetering and the economic record of the far right are any indication, I believe it. At least the downturn will probably hit when these wacos are in power, so they'll be the ones discredited by it. You know what? Let's be optimistic.
Since 1910, the US economy has suffered a recession within 12 months of a two term president leaving office, with one exception, GHW Bush's recession started 17 months after he assumed office following Reagan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-1 ... ssion-2017

http://www.worth.com/how-does-one-predi ... recession/
Economists are famous, as the quip goes, for having predicted seven of the past four recessions. The only thing they can really predict with certainty is that another one is inevitable at some point.

I'm skeptical of anyone saying he's predicting the economy with any high level of certainty.

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CorruptUser
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:59 pm UTC

I'd say that if the economist was so smart and knew so much about the economy, why didn't they become a billionaire from stocks and options trading? If you know a recession will happen, either (covered) short sell the shit out of it or purchase a fuckton of puts.

In academia, being wrong means eventually having your work disproven long after you got tenure. In business, being wrong means bankruptcy. Remember how Sharpe turned out to know nothing about pensions, but lost nothing? Remember when one of the guys from Black-Scholes went into the market and lost billions?

elasto
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:06 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:In academia, being wrong means eventually having your work disproven long after you got tenure. In business, being wrong means bankruptcy.

True, but so what? Trump has declared bankruptcy four times and it never hurt him. In fact he described his bankruptcies as 'tremendous things'...

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sardia
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:16 pm UTC

elasto wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:In academia, being wrong means eventually having your work disproven long after you got tenure. In business, being wrong means bankruptcy.

True, but so what? Trump has declared bankruptcy four times and it never hurt him. In fact he described his bankruptcies as 'tremendous things'...

If you asked Trump how he felt during bankruptcy, he certainly wasn't as sunny about it. The prudent thing is to be wary anytime someone offers to give you 'the secret or the answer' to all of life's complex problems.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... democrats/
Democrats long road back to power begins. There's no guarantee that Democrats will get back power, if they muck it up with the same arrogance Clinton did, they could see 8-12 years of GOP control. The first step is to organize. The second is to field candidates everywhere.


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