Zamfir wrote:Nate's the Guy Who Can Predict The Election Because Science. That's the big claim to fame of the website. If he is wrong, then it's a bit cheap to point at everyone else who was also wrong.
Nate is...less wrong. And also usually fairly open about showing his work, and admitting when he was wrong. It's fair to keep in mind his shortcomings, but I I think those positive attributes are still pretty big. So, I kinda like the site, even if it's not always 100% correct. Yeah, maybe he made some errors on this or that, but in comparison to the field, he was off by a lot less.
Zamfir wrote:That's not new, is it? That's the standard relation between journalists and people in power. If the journalists get overly critical, they get cut off and become one of the loonies. The Trump administration is perhaps a tad unexperienced, so the game leaks out to the public.But they'll learn fast enough.
Sure. It's just the same old game, but played with a little less subtlety. Trump and subtlety go together like a hammer and glass.
And yes, Trump's fixation on people loving him enough to swarm to his inauguration is a bit unusual, but...it's very Trump. And ultimately, not very important.
As for recession prediction, yeah. That's not something we predict well. The people who successfully "predicted" past recessions are mostly those who talk doom and gloom all the time. Things like bubbles form because people generally have a bad impression of the facts. You inherently learn that in hindsight. If you *know* you believe something wrong, you stop believing it.
I suspect people hoping that Trump'll get blamed for something that just conveniently happens to occur after he takes office are resorting to wishful thinking. I mean, it *could* happen, but it's hardly a sound plan. Basically just trusting to luck to take care of things for ya.
The global gag rule is a traditional republican/democrat thing. Each administration toggles it to the obvious state they prefer. Also, it really isn't a gag rule, so much as it is a straightforward funding thing. Unfortunately, this is a pretty normal result of losing the presidency.
TPP probably isn't huge, because of the lack of ratification. Depends on how fearful you are of China, I guess, since it's mostly an anti-china thing. I'm not particularly worried about China, so, TPP isn't huge. I'm more interested in what, if anything replaces it, and how sensible any tariffs will be. Trump seems to be leaning towards protectionism, which I'm not overly fond of...so even though I don't see axing the TPP as a significant problem, foreign trade is definitely an area to keep an eye on.