Trump presidency

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bantler
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby bantler » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:55 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Drew Miller, the Libertarian received 0.6% of the vote. I predict angry Rep voters blaming him for splitting the vote (as presumably a large enough proportion of libertarian voters would otherwise vote GOP).


Good. The Dems have been eating Green Party losses for decades.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 pm UTC

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... a-edition/
Nate Silver tells me I'm wrong, and Democrats should play everywhere (worry about your coalition for 2020). The reason Democrats are overperforming with Red States instead of suburbs is a simple reversion to the mean. Lamb won because of both suburbs and Trump voters.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:22 pm UTC

sardia wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-should-be-freaking-out-pennsylvania-edition/
Nate Silver tells me I'm wrong, and Democrats should play everywhere (worry about your coalition for 2020). The reason Democrats are overperforming with Red States instead of suburbs is a simple reversion to the mean. Lamb won because of both suburbs and Trump voters.

When I listened to that earlier I honestly figured you would make an adjustment to your earlier post.

It's weird how a lot of different people only seem to discuss one aspect at a time of Trump's win and how to revert that in 2018/20. How much of it was just Clinton hate? How much was just staying home? How much of both of those was amplified by the Russian disinformation campaigns? I get that focusing on policy is the probably the most constructive way forward, but that could be all for naught if there aren't improvements in getting the message of Democrats out there and overcoming the nihilist impulses we've been seeing (esp in younger [potential] voters).
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:10 pm UTC

I just saw the back-story of this "special election" today:
It was called when longtime Republican congressman Tim Murphy, who espoused strong anti-abortion views, resigned last autumn amid revelations of an extramarital affair in which he urged his mistress to get a termination.

If you're going to produce moments like that, don't go complaining when people latch onto them, point them out and laugh at you, Repubs.
Oh, Willie McBride, it was all done in vain.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:09 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:I just saw the back-story of this "special election" today:
It was called when longtime Republican congressman Tim Murphy, who espoused strong anti-abortion views, resigned last autumn amid revelations of an extramarital affair in which he urged his mistress to get a termination.

If you're going to produce moments like that, don't go complaining when people latch onto them, point them out and laugh at you, Repubs.

Do you believe that narrative? How many points did his resignation cost the Republicans?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby SDK » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:33 pm UTC

When did we stop using the word "story"? "Narrative" just sounds so head-in-the-sand dismissive.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:49 pm UTC

bantler wrote:I rode Nate Silver's 538 train every day in 2016 until the fatal catastrophe of November 8th. After that gruesome pileup I'm too scarred to ever again put my faith in polls, math, and possibly humanity.


No poll is immune to error, and the favored outcome still certainly has a chance of not happening. My bets on Trump in the lead-up weren't prescient...I just thought the odds were better than folks had offered. Take enough bets like that, and in the long run you come out ahead.

Polls are useful tools, so long as you keep in mind their limitations, which to be fair to Nate, he generally does a good job of highlighting.

emceng wrote:I just don't understand anyone supporting trump at this point. The only two reasons I can possibly see are that they are financially benefiting directly, or that they are so incredibly ignorant they don't know anything about politics.


For traditional Republican goals, he hasn't actually been all that bad in terms of what he's done. Sure, when he speaks, he's often obnoxious, but judging by the actual results, it's little surprise that many of them are okay with him. For most, the most immediate result they can see is a smaller withholding for taxes from their daily paycheck. Plus, unemployment remains decent, and the stock market's up. That's hardly going to enrage them.

Plus, yknow, there's the usual partisanship. Everyone's pretty good at justifying the other side as worse in any given scenario.

Now, you and I can agree that manner of presentation has value and what not, and you may not share their values, but at least you can see how those factors help people accept him. Economy and partisanship are incredibly huge predictors of who likes any given president, not merely this one.

sardia wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-should-be-freaking-out-pennsylvania-edition/
Nate Silver tells me I'm wrong, and Democrats should play everywhere (worry about your coalition for 2020). The reason Democrats are overperforming with Red States instead of suburbs is a simple reversion to the mean. Lamb won because of both suburbs and Trump voters.


I think it's good to field candidates everywhere you've got a shot, at minimum. Beyond that, you can get into financial cost/benefit issues. Fielding a candidate even in a doomed district does help the brand slightly overall, but it's weak in practical results. The specific tradeoff might be informed by how many good candidates you have, though. Right now, Democrats are getting a surplus of candidates in at least some districts. Potentially interesting, at minimum, and a useful prerequisite for some strategies.

Sableagle wrote:I just saw the back-story of this "special election" today:
It was called when longtime Republican congressman Tim Murphy, who espoused strong anti-abortion views, resigned last autumn amid revelations of an extramarital affair in which he urged his mistress to get a termination.

If you're going to produce moments like that, don't go complaining when people latch onto them, point them out and laugh at you, Repubs.


Eh, there's always some hypocritical Republican candidate in some such situation. Doesn't mean much. Sure, enjoy the amusement of laughing at 'em, but often the seat stays red after someone else takes over, or they're a tearful apology away from round two.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:08 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Eh, there's always some hypocritical Republican candidate in some such situation. Doesn't mean much. Sure, enjoy the amusement of laughing at 'em, but often the seat stays red after someone else takes over, or they're a tearful apology away from round two.

People usually judge friends by their intentions and enemies by their actions. That means that, as you say, a tearful apology is usually enough to keep supporters on side, particularly in this especially tribal age we've entered.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:38 am UTC

Former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe has been sacked days before he could retire with pension rights.

Mr McCabe had been with the FBI for two decades and was due to retire on Sunday, the day he turns 50 and can claim his federal government pension. It is not clear how much of his pension he might lose as a result of Mr Sessions' announcement.

Mr Trump has long accused Mr McCabe of bias in favour of the Democrats. He immediately praised Mr Sessions' decision to fire him.

In December, the president appeared to taunt the then number two at the FBI, when he tweeted: "FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe is racing the clock to retire with full benefits. 90 days to go?!!!"
His sacking came late on Friday night. Mr Sessions, who heads the justice department, said it was the result of "an extensive and fair investigation" by his department and the FBI.

Mr Sessions said the report had concluded that Mr McCabe had "made an unauthorised disclosure to the news media [in October 2016] and lacked candour - including under oath - on multiple occasions".


Lacked candour?! Coming from fake news central that's rich to say the least.

Mr McCabe has issued a lengthy statement vehemently rejecting the allegations against him and denouncing what he described as a campaign of attacks on his credibility.

He insisted he had done nothing wrong in organising the October 2016 interview, saying "it was the type of exchange with the media that the Deputy Director oversees several times per week".

He said of the subsequent justice department investigation that he tried to answer the questions "truthfully and accurately" and "when I thought my answers were misunderstood, I contacted investigators to correct them".

"The big picture is a tale of what can happen when law enforcement is politicized," he went on to say.


link

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:54 pm UTC

Image

https://youtu.be/_dsmLlzf19Q?t=48

https://youtu.be/6CKVA3zw8x4?t=60

Well, I didn't think Trump was looking to Labyrinth and Pretty Woman for inspiration ...
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:14 pm UTC

On the topic of Fake News, here is Channel4's report on Cambridge Analytica. Note the irony at 14:35.

https://youtu.be/mpbeOCKZFfQ

I watched it on the Channel4 news and they mentioned there's a second part they're going to air tomorrow. In that part, CA claims to be responsible for Trump's victory. That is not surprising, given the low margin that determined the critical states. But this would be a direct admission and a great source of information to the connections between the Trump campaign team and people outside, apart from Steve Bannon.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:34 pm UTC

I'm sure this won't get much attention in conservative circles* but thankfully some people are finally starting to wake up:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomnamako/ralph-peters

In my view, Fox has degenerated from providing a legitimate and much-needed outlet for conservative voices to a mere propaganda machine for a destructive and ethically ruinous administration. When prime-time hosts--who have never served our country in any capacity--dismiss facts and empirical reality to launch profoundly dishonest assaults on the FBI, the Justice Department, the courts, the intelligence community (in which I served) and, not least, a model public servant and genuine war hero such as Robert Mueller--all the while scaremongering with lurid warnings of "deep-state" machinations-- I cannot be part of the same organization, even at a remove. To me, Fox News is now wittingly harming our system of government for profit.


*outside of branding him a RINO deep-state operative
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ObsessoMom » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:23 am UTC


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Re: Trump presidency

Postby jewish_scientist » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:51 pm UTC

[The] United States Chamber of Commerce... lobbies on behalf of ExxonMobil, Boeing and General Electric among other giants.

That is quite an interesting combination of companies.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

....is it? Exxon makes the fuel for GE's engines that keep Boeing's planes in the air.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dark567 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:02 pm UTC

The Chamber of Commerce basically advocates for interests of business in general and instead of doing industry-specific lobbying usually just lobbies for whatever all business would like(i.e. low corporate taxes).
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby jewish_scientist » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:59 pm UTC

Liri wrote:....is it? Exxon makes the fuel for GE's engines that keep Boeing's planes in the air.

I did not think of that. I was thinking about who they buy stuff from and who they sell stuff to; governments and power plants, steel mills and manufacturers, LOTS of different material providers and consumers.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:19 pm UTC

The high level resignations continue to pile on:

US President Donald Trump's lead lawyer for the special counsel investigation into Russia interference in the 2016 election has resigned, US media report. John Dowd is reported to have concluded that Mr Trump was increasingly ignoring his advice.

Other reports say Mr Trump had lost confidence in Mr Dowd's ability to handle special counsel Robert Mueller.


link

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:52 am UTC

Trump fires horrible piece of shit and replaces him with horribler piece of shit.

That's not a real hyperlink because, let's face it, it's such a ubiquitous and daily happenstance that we don't even click the links anymore.

Of course, swapping McMasters for Bolton is going to further tank what's left of our foreign policy initiatives and most likely end up getting lots and lots of people getting killed, so maybe this one's a little less ordinary than all the others?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:18 pm UTC

I wonder how many of Trump's supporters would say "lots and lots of people getting killed" was actually a good thing, as long as the people getting killed are {insert hated group here}.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:36 pm UTC

Can we just send him to North Korea already? If NK holds him hostage, can we delay payments for a few years?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby emceng » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:I wonder how many of Trump's supporters would say "lots and lots of people getting killed" was actually a good thing, as long as the people getting killed are {insert hated group here}.


Well Bolton sure seems like the guy to do it. Read this today https://theintercept.com/2018/03/23/gat ... slim-hate/

He's chair of a site that posts awesome things like "Germany: Migrant Rape Crisis Still Sowing Terror and Destruction Women and children sacrificed on the altar of Basic Human Decency".
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:29 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Lacked candour?! Coming from fake news central that's rich to say the least.


It's the formal charge in the FBI. The FBI has an affirmative duty to provide information to investigators. Firing for it is indeed standard.

Not all government folks have the same standard, though I suppose one could argue that they ought to.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:26 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:It's the formal charge in the FBI. The FBI has an affirmative duty to provide information to investigators. Firing for it is indeed standard.

1) It may be a formal charge but I am assuming it has essentially been handwritten by Trump - either directly or by virtue of the intense politicisation of these organisations: I can imagine anyone with a pension at risk is either trying to curry favour or just trying to keep their head down.

2) China has gone through a 'corruption purge' with hundreds of thousands sacked or imprisoned, but you can be sure that only political opponents get targeted. How many of Trump's allies have been or will ever be formally charged with 'lacking candour' worthy of firing two days before retirement I wonder..?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:17 pm UTC

elasto wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:It's the formal charge in the FBI. The FBI has an affirmative duty to provide information to investigators. Firing for it is indeed standard.

1) It may be a formal charge but I am assuming it has essentially been handwritten by Drumpf - either directly or by virtue of the intense politicisation of these organisations: I can imagine anyone with a pension at risk is either trying to curry favour or just trying to keep their head down.

The office that issued the judgement has a track record of being apolitical and is made up - still - of career civil servants. That said, the investigation was unusually quick. We also don't know what their judgement itself actually says (it'll be released in a few weeks?). Too, Trump's own intervention casts a pall over the whole thing, even disregarding the 26 hours-before-pension-achieved aspect.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:48 pm UTC

Yup, I'm sure it's entirely coincidental that Trump taunted him repeatedly over his pension and then he was fired minutes before the end of Friday on his final week of work.

Forgive me if I don't give Trump the benefit of the doubt here.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ojno » Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:03 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Yup, I'm sure it's entirely coincidental that Trump taunted him repeatedly over his pension and then he was fired minutes before the end of Friday on his final week of work.

Forgive me if I don't give Trump the benefit of the doubt here.


In the UK that would be such an open-and-shut unfair dismissal case, the cover of the book being opened and shut would approach the speed of sound.

Is there not a similar process?

(edit: correct 'wrongful' to 'unfair')

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Koa » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:31 am UTC

There's a process, it just costs more money than the pension is worth and has no guarantee of success. There's not a lot of legal precedent about flagrant abuse of presidential power, because usually it would cause issues even with their own party. GOP is complicit, so there's zero accountability, and it will be quickly lost in the torrent of unethical actions.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:30 am UTC

The basic rules in the US is 'you get only as much justice as you can afford'.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:35 am UTC

ojno wrote:
elasto wrote:Yup, I'm sure it's entirely coincidental that Trump taunted him repeatedly over his pension and then he was fired minutes before the end of Friday on his final week of work.

Forgive me if I don't give Trump the benefit of the doubt here.


In the UK that would be such an open-and-shut unfair dismissal case, the cover of the book being opened and shut would approach the speed of sound.

Is there not a similar process?

(edit: correct 'wrongful' to 'unfair')


The FBI routinely does this for lower level employees. So, in that respect, it's entirely fair.

That said, it IS often common for higher level government officials to get away with rather more than their underlings. This isn't something likely to hold up in court as it's more an unwritten privilege of power that arguably ought not exist.

All that said, Trump's gloating, of course, is unlikely to make it look better to any judge. I suppose it depends on the judge and lawyers involved.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:45 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/why-rep ... tions.html
More special elections upcoming along with Cooks report of their political tilt.
Arizona's is April 24, so we should see how close it'll be. GOP is likely to win this one, but+13 isn't unreachable given democrat's overperformance this year.
Ohio's will be much easier as it's only 7 points more conservative.
Iirc, you were wrongish on the Conner-Lamb election. Care to reassess GOP chances going forward?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Yablo » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:07 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:I wonder how many of Trump's supporters would say "lots and lots of people getting killed" was actually a good thing, as long as the people getting killed are {insert hated group here}.

While I don't doubt you wonder that, it's not particularly fair. I know many Trump supporters (though, granted, not a significant percentage of the whole), and not a single one advocated killing anyone outside of those on Death Row. They don't even advocate violence against anyone outside of self-defense in most cases; there are always those in most any group who have someone they feel needs a good ass-kicking.

That's not to say there aren't Trump supporters who would fit your criterion, but I don't believe there are more Trump supporters than Clinton supporters who do. Most Sanders supporters I've met actually strike me as quite a bit less violent and racist/sexist/whatever than others, so I guess that's a point in their favor.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:19 pm UTC

Yablo wrote:While I don't doubt you wonder that, it's not particularly fair. I know many Trump supporters (though, granted, not a significant percentage of the whole), and not a single one advocated killing anyone outside of those on Death Row. They don't even advocate violence against anyone outside of self-defense in most cases; there are always those in most any group who have someone they feel needs a good ass-kicking.
That's not to say there aren't Trump supporters who would fit your criterion, but I don't believe there are more Trump supporters than Clinton supporters who do. Most Sanders supporters I've met actually strike me as quite a bit less violent and racist/sexist/whatever than others, so I guess that's a point in their favor.

You aren't counting the rise of neo Nazis, Islamaphobes, and violently anti immigrant groups.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ObsessoMom » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:39 pm UTC

A press release from the League of Women Voters, an organization with which I am very active on a local level. Bolding mine.

3/27/2018
Washington, DC – The League of Women Voters president Chris Carson issued the following statement in response to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’ decision to include a question pertaining to citizenship in the 2020 Census:

"Including a question about citizenship in the 2020 Census will damage the chances for an accurate count of our country’s population. This unprecedented change to the way we count the number of people living in the United States is a betrayal of the idea that in America, every person counts.

"Make no mistake: this decision isn’t about improving demographic data on citizenship. It’s designed to frighten immigrants—citizens and noncitizens alike—so they won’t participate in the Census. It’s a blatant political maneuver meant to disenfranchise these groups and deny them equal representation. So Secretary Ross’ claim that this question helps enforce the Voting Rights Act is preposterous. Indeed, including this question on the Census undermines the rights of eligible voters and threatens a process vital to our democracy.

"For more than 200 years, the Census has collected information about the geographic distribution of our population so we can provide representation and invest in our communities equitably. A fair and accurate Census is essential to the way the federal government allocates resources for infrastructure, education, and transportation. Census data is critical when determining resources for fire, water and trash collection. Without a complete count of our nation’s people, businesses will not have the tools to make sound investment decisions that keep our communities thriving.

"Adding this question to the Census now is not only unnecessary and jeopardizes the accuracy of the report, but it comes at a huge financial expense. Taxpayers should not be held responsible for the time and cost of changing the forms and making the report less accurate.

"The United States Constitution mandates an accurate count of all people living in the United States – not all citizens. Non-citizens are an integral part of our economy and need to be included in the 2020 Census to paint a complete picture of our great country. The clock is ticking toward 2020. We call on Congress to take action and correct this issue before it is too late."


https://www.lwv.org/newsroom/press-rele ... rate-count

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Yablo » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:22 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Yablo wrote:While I don't doubt you wonder that, it's not particularly fair. I know many Trump supporters (though, granted, not a significant percentage of the whole), and not a single one advocated killing anyone outside of those on Death Row. They don't even advocate violence against anyone outside of self-defense in most cases; there are always those in most any group who have someone they feel needs a good ass-kicking.
That's not to say there aren't Trump supporters who would fit your criterion, but I don't believe there are more Trump supporters than Clinton supporters who do. Most Sanders supporters I've met actually strike me as quite a bit less violent and racist/sexist/whatever than others, so I guess that's a point in their favor.

You aren't counting the rise of neo Nazis, Islamaphobes, and violently anti immigrant groups.

Those groups and the pro-Hillary groups that jumped Trump supporters outside his rallies started popping up in the news about the same time, and they've been on equal footing as far as responsibility for violence since.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:25 pm UTC

Yeah, if you just ignore that the white supremacists are actually killing people, then they are on equal footing.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:39 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:Yeah, if you just ignore that the white supremacists are actually killing people, then they are on equal footing.


You're clearly ignoring the roving bands of pantsuit-clad thugs randomly attacking innocent white nationalists in cities across the country.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby natraj » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:32 am UTC

even if we pause reality for a moment and take it as fact that we are living in yablo's fantasy land where the only violence trump supporters have advocated is towards death row inmates, that's somehow not reassuring to me given the staggering overwhelming mounds of evidence that our carceral system is enormously biased against black people, the fact that the 13th amendment was literally written to allow continuing slavery in the form of the prison system, the fact that black defendants who are eligible for the death penalty are sentenced to death at far higher rates than any other demographic liiike the list goes on. so even if we pretend that yablo's completely bogus reality is real it's still just state-sanctioned lynching instead of the extrajudicial lynching & violence that has, in fact, been carried out by white supremacists (many of which are trump supporters!) lately and no surprise to me that trump fans are in favour.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:54 pm UTC

Limiting women's rights on their bodies is an act if violence.
Limiting people of color's voting rights is an act of violence.
Limiting proper representation of the population is an act of violence.
Limiting LGBTQ rights is an act of violence.

All of this from the party that supposedly hates government involvement.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:23 pm UTC

I'm not sure we have the same definition of "violence". "Violence" =/= "Injustice". Unless you want to argue that making it illegal for 12 year olds to buy cigarettes is "violence".


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