Trump presidency

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elasto
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:19 pm UTC

When Obama was elected there was a strong feeling amongst many that the Dems could sweep every part of government - and therefore the SC too - and the Reps might be out for at least a generation.

And look how that turned out...

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Soupspoon
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:42 pm UTC

In the UK, there's a general assumption that the party in power has an inherent disadvantage in (say) local elections, where the swing goes against them. Mainly because being in power (traditionally) reveals the problems with the ideology of the party that cannot be assessed so much for the more powerless opponents who can't actually do things wrongly. (Also for by-elections because an organised "protest vote" is easier to manage and usually not even even consequential in the grand scheme of things for those who might balk at voting off-party in a mainstream situation.)

Does this pattern fit over presidential/mid-term votes, in the US? I'm sure someone has a nice graph that explores the (anti)correlation of swings.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:23 pm UTC

elasto wrote:When Obama was elected there was a strong feeling amongst many that the Dems could sweep every part of government - and therefore the SC too - and the Reps might be out for at least a generation.

And look how that turned out...


Shit, I remember people here telling me that crippling filibusters wouldn't matter because the Republicans were doomed power-wise.

That went...poorly.

Amusingly, many people are now suggesting a Democratic court-packing strategy. This strategy would both require democratic power that they currently lack, but would be subject to counter-packing if they lost power.

If you glance back over the electoral history, it's a pretty safe bet that power's gonna trade back and forth pretty frequently. If you don't take that into account, your predictions are likely to be poor.

Soupspoon wrote:In the UK, there's a general assumption that the party in power has an inherent disadvantage in (say) local elections, where the swing goes against them. Mainly because being in power (traditionally) reveals the problems with the ideology of the party that cannot be assessed so much for the more powerless opponents who can't actually do things wrongly. (Also for by-elections because an organised "protest vote" is easier to manage and usually not even even consequential in the grand scheme of things for those who might balk at voting off-party in a mainstream situation.)

Does this pattern fit over presidential/mid-term votes, in the US? I'm sure someone has a nice graph that explores the (anti)correlation of swings.


It does. There are a number of patterns overall(economics, for instance, are huge), but there is a correlation with general gains for the party which is not in power. This contributes to the sort of back and forth pattern of power we see in general.

There's a bit more talk of such things over in the 2018 election thread, but it is probable that, due to the map, the Republicans will retain at least control of the Senate. The house is much more up in in the air, but is nothing like a sure thing. State's are also largely controlled by Republicans at present, so there's potential for Democratic gains there. However, historically, Democrats traditionally have turnout problems in midterms relative to presidental years, and a healthy economy bodes well for the party in power(less blame for them to take). Both of these indicate against a massive Democrat gain.

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sardia
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:03 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:In the UK, there's a general assumption that the party in power has an inherent disadvantage in (say) local elections, where the swing goes against them. Mainly because being in power (traditionally) reveals the problems with the ideology of the party that cannot be assessed so much for the more powerless opponents who can't actually do things wrongly. (Also for by-elections because an organised "protest vote" is easier to manage and usually not even even consequential in the grand scheme of things for those who might balk at voting off-party in a mainstream situation.)
Does this pattern fit over presidential/mid-term votes, in the US? I'm sure someone has a nice graph that explores the (anti)correlation of swings.

It does. There are a number of patterns overall(economics, for instance, are huge), but there is a correlation with general gains for the party which is not in power. This contributes to the sort of back and forth pattern of power we see in general.
There's a bit more talk of such things over in the 2018 election thread, but it is probable that, due to the map, the Republicans will retain at least control of the Senate. The house is much more up in in the air, but is nothing like a sure thing. State's are also largely controlled by Republicans at present, so there's potential for Democratic gains there. However, historically, Democrats traditionally have turnout problems in midterms relative to presidental years, and a healthy economy bodes well for the party in power(less blame for them to take). Both of these indicate against a massive Democrat gain.

Don't use UK voting patterns for the US. Democratic turnout numbers are adequate this year, which is evidence against your statement. The more accurate statement is that the party in charge of the presidency gets hit by lower turnout, after controlling for voting indicators. (i.e. White old people still vote GOP, and vote more often. But if a GOP president + midterm year, then the opposing party wins seats, and has better turnout).
The GOP hold on a shrinking (but still mighty for 10 yrs+ electorate) is a relatively modern phenomenon.
In short, go find a model, and start watching your indicators. I'm watching the approval rating for president + generic congressional ballot. I'll start discounting that as polling data gets combined into the 538 election model. I hate how correlated the electorate is.

TLDR: Economic or predictive indicators --> polling data --> election result from good to best.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:17 am UTC

What a cool & normal country we live in, where mothers separated from their kids are herded onto a field so that their screams for help won't interrupt the official tour of a concentration camp.

HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY Kirstjen Nielsen made a series of secretive visits to South Texas immigrant detention centers on Friday. One of the facilities the secretary visited, in Los Fresnos, houses parents whose children were taken from them under President Donald Trump’s “zero tolerance” family separation policy. Many of the detainees there are women, and many desperately wanted to speak with Nielsen. Instead, they were moved to a distant soccer field, where they shouted to Nielsen for help but were too far away for her to hear them.

Reporters could not talk to Nielsen either, even though, as confirmed to The Intercept by a DHS press secretary on Monday, she toured two Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centers for adults in South Texas and a shelter in Brownsville that houses young children separated from their parents. Additionally, ICE confirmed to The Intercept on Tuesday that more than 60 women were moved during the secretary’s visit, though the agency claimed the move was for the purpose of “recreation.”

https://theintercept.com/2018/07/03/kir ... ion-visit/
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:32 pm UTC

Is this something new under Trump, or was it always there all along?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:20 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Is this something new under Trump, or was it always there all along?
umm...Gee...?
Yes. He's like a rotten log.

Was that creepy, crawly already there?
Did the rotting log attract it?

Or; Was it our fault for turning it over?
Either way, It is rotten.

Do we want this to be who we are?
Personal Story:
Spoiler:
My friend is very ill.
Her brother has come to care for her.

He has been married to a Guatemalan woman for fifty years.
She is here to help, too. She is Beautiful.

The kind of beauty that comes from being healthy and well cared for.
Her beauty is not superficial. She is kind and gentle. Guatemalan.

If Trump was doing 'things' when she was young,
That man and our Nation would have been less for it.

She has contributed to our Nation and his Family for a lifetime.
You see the unwashed masses.
I see a better future for all.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Is this something new under Trump, or was it always there all along?

What? Zero tolerance and family separation on this scale are both unprecedented, as has been discussed repeatedly already in this thread.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:Is this something new under Trump, or was it always there all along?

What? Zero tolerance and family separation on this scale are both unprecedented, as has been discussed repeatedly already in this thread.


The part where "The Brass" (in this case Homeland Security secretary Kirstjen Nielsen) are effectively corralled and guided away from anything that might damage the official narrative and/or that official's personal delusions that everything is great (like the incarcerated who might ask uncomfortable questions) however is a tradition of 'dog and pony shows' since they've existed.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:37 am UTC

The concentration camp thing.

The separation of families is new, as far as we know.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:26 am UTC

Is this?
Is this what the Adoption Meetings were about?

Russian Adoption / Latino Adoption....Adoption.
Having children to spare. Babies need homes.

Adoption Meetings.
Do you remember the boring Adoption Meetings?

We were told Adoption was code for Magnitsky.
Maybe, it is even more evil than that.
Spoiler:
The Magnitsky Act, formally known as the Russia and Moldova Jackson-Vanik Repeal and Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012, is a bipartisan bill passed by the U.S. Congress and President Obama in November–December 2012, intending to punish Russian officials responsible for the death of Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky in a Moscow Prison.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:42 am UTC

Trump administration drops Obama-era affirmative action guidelines promoting diversity in universities

Donald Trump’s decision has been viewed as an indicator the federal government may soon challenge Harvard University’s admissions practices and nudge other schools to shelve race-orientated policies

The Justice Department announced it was revoking 24 federal guidance documents that it considered “unnecessary, outdated, inconsistent with existing law, or otherwise improper”.

Academic affirmative action – referred to as positive action in Britain – is the policy of protecting members of groups that are known to have previously suffered from discrimination.

The practice involves favouring minorities during the admissions process in order to champion diversity and has long been seen as controversial in America.
A fine piece of Göbbelscript, that. "Unnecessary" and "outdated" both imply the job's been done already and there's just no need any more because there are no race problems and the #BLM people are making stuff up to stir up trouble, "inconsistent with existing law" implies it's discrimination against the "ordinary white guys" who think they own the country and are being "kicked out of their own" universities and "otherwise improper" maintains David Duke's support for the policy, doesn't it? It's so very sinister without being at all explicit about how.

Anyone who wanted to say: "There is no inequality, slavery was abolished centuries ago, you only got into this university because of the colour of your skin, that place on this course should have gone to a more talented white guy, you didn't earn it and n*****s don't belong on campus except to pick litter" now has the backing of the president when he does say it. Yay, emboldening. Free speech, whoo.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:30 pm UTC

Affirmative action is... weird. It's one of those policies that both works and doesn't work. It works as it directly achieves its goal of increasing minority participation in the workforce, education, etc. At the same time it undermines its goal by creating a source of resentment and bigotry, ensuring that there is always a disparity.

So should we get rid of it? Sadly, it's one of those policies that's "the worst thing, except for all the alternatives". There's always been the question of why Chinese and Italians, for instance, have been accepted into mainstream society within 2 generations of being the underclass while black people had been free for around 4 generations pre-AA without being accepted. Even if black people were at that point to go the way of the Chinese had AA not been implemented and be accepted two generations later, which is in itself a big assumption, that still means that virtually every living black adult would never see the benefits of being accepted by society.

Interestingly, the best way to convince people to adopt an affirmative action policy is to make it "neutral".

Scenario 1)
"Let's make sure that our team is at least 30% female"
"Oh my gawd, you mean QUOTAS?!"
Scenario 2)
"Let's make sure that our team has no more than 70% of either gender"
"Yeah ok, that makes sense"

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:17 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
creating
Pretty sure you'll find the resentment and bigotry were already there.

There's always been the question of why Chinese and Italians, for instance, have been accepted into mainstream society within 2 generations of being the underclass while black people had been free for around 4 generations pre-AA without being accepted.
This isn't a real question unless you are intentionally ignorant about history. And the present. Segregation and Jim Crow laws continued into the 1960s, and there's still hella racism against Asian-Americans, it just looks different from anti-Black racism.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:28 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Is this something new under Trump, or was it always there all along?


Inspections by high up officials have always been a dog and pony show, yes. They've never been about exploring and finding problems. It's just too easy to sweep stuff under the rug for a rare visit by a big shot.

The specific instance, however, is probably related to the current issue. I'd imagine that camp visits are happening precisely because it's an issue at present.

Sableagle wrote:A fine piece of Göbbelscript, that. "Unnecessary" and "outdated" both imply the job's been done already and there's just no need any more because there are no race problems and the #BLM people are making stuff up to stir up trouble, "inconsistent with existing law" implies it's discrimination against the "ordinary white guys" who think they own the country and are being "kicked out of their own" universities and "otherwise improper" maintains David Duke's support for the policy, doesn't it? It's so very sinister without being at all explicit about how.


In some respects, yes, some policies are outdated. For instance, women now attend college at a rate higher than men, so it's reasonable to start backing off regulation, so long as you maintain a rough parity. Cool, that particular problem is fixed.

This does not imply that all similar discrimination problems are fixed. Law enforcement, for instance, definitely has racism issues. However, a policy encouraging college admissions probably won't do anything to fix police racism.

In the specific case of ethnic minorities attending college, it's a great deal more mixed. Completion rates suffer for minorities. Getting someone into college is only one part. If they've been unprepared for the work by the primary school system, merely letting them into college doesn't really prepare them for success. Given the general state of inner city schools, it's pretty obvious that this system is more than a little broken. Basically, we got a narrowing race gap in enrollment, but not in competition.*

And if you look at elite colleges in particular, you actually see a widening enrollment gap.

I'm not gonna bet money on Trump fixing this, but the current system does need a change.

*https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/race-gap-narrows-in-college-enrollment-but-not-in-graduation/

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:35 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:
creating
Pretty sure you'll find the resentment and bigotry were already there.

Never said it wasn't. That's why the key word "a" is there instead of "the".

There's always been the question of why Chinese and Italians, for instance, have been accepted into mainstream society within 2 generations of being the underclass while black people had been free for around 4 generations pre-AA without being accepted.
This isn't a real question unless you are intentionally ignorant about history. And the present. Segregation and Jim Crow laws continued into the 1960s, and there's still hella racism against Asian-Americans, it just looks different from anti-Black racism.

It's also much less damaging, considering that 1) asians aren't routinely killed by the police, 2) are only 3% of the victims of race-based hate crimes in spite of being 5% of the population (though to be fair, that's because black people receive 50% of all hate crimes) and 3) asians on average earn much more than the average American. The main complaint about racism I hear from asians is... affirmative action in hiring and colleges.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:43 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:If they've been unprepared for the work by the primary school system, merely letting them into college doesn't really prepare them for success.
Do you have evidence that it's a lack of preparedness for the work and not, say, the continued presence of institutional racism in the universities themselves?

CorruptUser wrote:
The main complaint about racism I hear from asians is... affirmative action in hiring and colleges.
The fact that apparently no Asian-Americans have talked with you about things like Orientalism and fetishization and erasure doesn't mean those complaints don't exist.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:00 pm UTC

"Where are you from? No, like, where are you really from??"

CorruptUser wrote:are only 3% of the victims of race-based hate crimes in spite of being 5% of the population (though to be fair, that's because black people receive 50% of all hate crimes)

This says to me when you look at non-black hate crimes, Asians are still targeted by a higher proportion of them.

Also I highly suspect a lot of your ideas about Asians don't include South-East Asians, based on the stereotypes you've mentioned.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:59 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:
creating
Pretty sure you'll find the resentment and bigotry were already there.

Never said it wasn't. That's why the key word "a" is there instead of "the".

There's always been the question of why Chinese and Italians, for instance, have been accepted into mainstream society within 2 generations of being the underclass while black people had been free for around 4 generations pre-AA without being accepted.
This isn't a real question unless you are intentionally ignorant about history. And the present. Segregation and Jim Crow laws continued into the 1960s, and there's still hella racism against Asian-Americans, it just looks different from anti-Black racism.

It's also much less damaging, considering that 1) asians aren't routinely killed by the police, 2) are only 3% of the victims of race-based hate crimes in spite of being 5% of the population (though to be fair, that's because black people receive 50% of all hate crimes) and 3) asians on average earn much more than the average American. The main complaint about racism I hear from asians is... affirmative action in hiring and colleges.

You're stereotyping Asians. Please stop perpetuating that. For example, Asian wealth is deceptive. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues ... ng-whites/
There are really rich Asians who are grouped with really poor Asians, which gets averaged into 'wow, Asians are doing fine'.
There are nefarious reasons for whites calling Asians the model minority. I'll post a link if you need it.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:14 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:If they've been unprepared for the work by the primary school system, merely letting them into college doesn't really prepare them for success.
Do you have evidence that it's a lack of preparedness for the work and not, say, the continued presence of institutional racism in the universities themselves?


Primary schools are a particularly severe example of inequality. Where I live, the Baltimore schools have difficulty keeping the power on. Not a metaphor, they literally have school without heating and cooling*. Schools in wealthier neighborhoods are worlds ahead of this. It's no surprise that Baltimore keeps having trouble educating the kids when they don't really have even the basics well handled. Of course, the well funded schools are largely white kids, and the Baltimore schools are largely black kids. The Baltimore schools, of course, have a lower graduation rate than the rest of the state by about 15%.

That's pretty strong evidence for it being a failing of the K-12 system.

*https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/baltimore-schools-winter-heating.html
*http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-heat-patterson-high-school-20170926-story.html

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:51 pm UTC

Well those failings also stem from institutional racism - years of segregation and redlining, and the entire idea that public schools get funded according to property taxes, are all racist policies.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:04 pm UTC

Oh, certainly. Admissions is merely one aspect of it. Fixing that without fixing the rest of the chain you need to be successful is mostly just saddling kids with student loans and no degree, which doesn't seem all that great.

So, ideally, if you realize these regulations aren't working, sure, maybe drop 'em...but you'd want to do something to address the early-life problem. That's the bit I'm not sure the Trump administration will help with.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:31 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:That's pretty strong evidence for it being a failing of the K-12 system.


It's not exactly an "either/or" situation. Structural racism can be a factor for minority college graduation rates at both the K-12 level -and- the college level.

That said structural racism at the K-12 level compounds the problem at the college level. Minority students that aren't ready for college workloads not only contributes directly to failure to graduate rates, but also reinforces bad stereotypes which in turn has harmful effects on those who are capable of the work.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:If they've been unprepared for the work by the primary school system, merely letting them into college doesn't really prepare them for success.
Do you have evidence that it's a lack of preparedness for the work and not, say, the continued presence of institutional racism in the universities themselves?


Primary schools are a particularly severe example of inequality. Where I live, the Baltimore schools have difficulty keeping the power on. Not a metaphor, they literally have school without heating and cooling*. Schools in wealthier neighborhoods are worlds ahead of this. It's no surprise that Baltimore keeps having trouble educating the kids when they don't really have even the basics well handled. Of course, the well funded schools are largely white kids, and the Baltimore schools are largely black kids. The Baltimore schools, of course, have a lower graduation rate than the rest of the state by about 15%.

That's pretty strong evidence for it being a failing of the K-12 system.

*https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/baltimore-schools-winter-heating.html
*http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-heat-patterson-high-school-20170926-story.html
This is going Off Topic.
Because, schools are local issues.
I, still, want to put in my two cents.
Spoiler:
The internet to the Rescue!
Oh, I know there are tons of problems brought on by poverty and isolation.
The Internet Can! Help!

I have seen it.
A Mother I know did not want her son in School.
He is mildly disabled and she is frightened of violence toward him from other children.

She contacted the School District and they send a State Owned Laptop to him.
School use ONLY! He goes to School during regular hours via the internet.

He Loves School!
He gets to talk to his friends.

They can see each other and the Teacher.
Our School District requires an adult to supervise from home.

The Mom Loves School, too.
She is learning and re-learning.

His little sister watches.
She will have an academic leg-up.

The Mom has changed her work to a swing shift, so she can be home for School.
Every District will need to find a way to educate its K-12.

The Internet can be part of the answer.
I am so very sure it is True.

Even AI might help "track" kids.
Yes. I know it has an Orwellian vibe.

Yet; I know one Mom the rests easy.
She thinks she will not get the Shooter in the School call.

There is a great deal to figure out.
The world is a dangerous place and we have Cats that eat people.

We are in Deep Trouble:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJy8vTu66tE

Pruitt is out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKK8IPpfjg4
Mission Accomplished?

Sit back and wait for more water to become undrinkable.
Maybe, our rivers will start burning, again.

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! Regulations kill Jobs.
He'll kill Regulations and give men Jobs
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:18 pm UTC

New guidelines to send every case to deportation proceedings if the decision is unfavorable and the person is otherwise out of status.
https://t.co/cMg1ixK24B [pdf - my phone just downloads it and closes the browser so I can't get the non-Twitterfied url]

Together with all the other changes, including the new zero tolerance policy at the border, this seems specifically designed to overwhelm immigration courts and every other part of the system with greatly increased backlogs.

Trump has hinted for a long time, and said explicitly more recently, that he doesn't think due process should apply to deportation.

Nowhere at any point has Trump moved to do anything to fix immigration, unless you understand "fix" as "essentially end".
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby natraj » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:25 pm UTC

*bootlicker voice* it's not about racism it's about secure borders, the problem is illegal immigration, this isn't about cracking down on immigrants in GENERAL.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/uscis ... ask-force/

... we just, really, desperately need a task force specifically to strip citizenship from those who have already gone through the process. and surely, surely, mr. due-process-is-a-stupid-burden will be extremely careful and just when looking into this and not just pursue people for racist reasons because they messed up some paperwork somewhere.

i honestly don't know how trump defenders live with themselves at this stage tbh.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:53 pm UTC

And something important to realize is that no due process for some essentially means no due process for anyone.

Sure, I can prove that I'm a born US citizen, but who would I prove that *to* if an attempt to deport me never goes in front of a judge?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:03 pm UTC

Due process?
The man is Not a fan of due process for anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxgybgEKHHI

The NRA has the Money and Power to change his mind.
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natraj wrote:i honestly don't know how trump defenders live with themselves at this stage tbh.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/uscis ... ask-force/

Oh....How F%&#ing awful!
We still need clean water for drinking in Detroit.
Porto Rico still needs loads of work to be done.

Our bridges are falling apart.
Our schools need attention.

So...This AssHole spends Time and Money on a new agency to strip citizenship and makes a Space Force!
The individual person is both mean as a RattleSnake and as immature as a Toddler. It's Embarrassing at best.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sizik » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:10 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:https://t.co/cMg1ixK24B [pdf - my phone just downloads it and closes the browser so I can't get the non-Twitterfied url]


Here you go https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/fil ... of-NTA.pdf
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:28 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:New guidelines to send every case to deportation proceedings if the decision is unfavorable and the person is otherwise out of status.


What cases are we talking about here? If an immigration case had an unfavorable decision didn't that mean you weren't supposed to be allowed in the country to stay? Wouldn't that have always lead to deportation?

Nowhere at any point has Trump moved to do anything to fix immigration, unless you understand "fix" as "essentially end".


It's fairly clear he only wants immigration of people "beneficial" to the country. And to him that presumably means white people from developed countries regardless of what actual data shows in terms of who are actually beneficial.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:42 pm UTC

Chen wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:New guidelines to send every case to deportation proceedings if the decision is unfavorable and the person is otherwise out of status.


What cases are we talking about here? If an immigration case had an unfavorable decision didn't that mean you weren't supposed to be allowed in the country to stay? Wouldn't that have always lead to deportation?
No. Used to be they had the discretion to prioritize cases of people with criminal records.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:10 pm UTC

Sizik wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:https://t.co/cMg1ixK24B [pdf - my phone just downloads it and closes the browser so I can't get the non-Twitterfied url]


Here you go https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/fil ... of-NTA.pdf
oh, Good Grief!
also prioritize removable aliens who (g) In the judgment of an immigration officer, otherwise pose a risk to public safety or national security.
If (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) don't work; They can pull out (g) the immigration officer can remove you, if he does not like the 'cut of your jib'.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:13 pm UTC

And remember these are the same immigration officers who routinely claim people have "gang affiliations" with little to no evidence whatsoever.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby emceng » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

Well Pruitt is out. I guess that's good. He's a corrupt son of a bitch that should be locked up. Instead, he'll go into industry, get paid high six figures, maybe more, and fade into history as a terrible person. No consequences, except being vilified, and making lots and lots of money at the expense of the American people.

And his replacement is less outright corrupt, but still in bed with the coal lobby. Sigh.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:11 pm UTC

So, if China pulls all treasury stock, and the us decides not to pay, will all countries decide never to invest with the us again? Or just while Trump is in office? Or until we pay it back? What would the economic effects of that be?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:24 pm UTC

gd1 wrote:So, if China pulls all treasury stock, and the us decides not to pay, will all countries decide never to invest with the us again? Or just while Trump is in office? Or until we pay it back? What would the economic effects of that be?

Terrible, which is why nobody is dumb enough to fuck with the AAA US credit rating... Besides those tea party fuckers. But that's in the past. It's harder when you're in control.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:36 pm UTC

gd1 wrote:So, if China pulls all treasury stock, and the us decides not to pay, will all countries decide never to invest with the us again? Or just while Trump is in office? Or until we pay it back? What would the economic effects of that be?


If China sells US bonds, then someone will buy them. It should be noted that it does not actually have to be the US government. So, it doesn't really matter if "the US decides not to pay", because the US government doesn't control the whole bond market. It'd affect the market some, sure, any big transactions would...but China doesn't really own that much of the debt. Less than half of the debt is owned by foreigners at all, and China only has about 12% of the total. Japan holds almost as much as China, but for some reason, people seem a lot less concerned about Japan. There was a recent wave of large treasury offerings that barely caused a ripple in the market, so even fairly large sales from China might be surprisingly easy to weather.

So, then China gets to consider where to park it's funds. The US is pretty much tops in terms of reliability, liquidity, etc. Even the "no longer triple A" thing didn't actually matter much in practice, and was ultimately little more than a protest. People still wanted US bonds.

It's not nearly as scary a threat as people are crediting it.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Angua » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:37 pm UTC

Crabtree's bludgeon: “no set of mutually inconsistent observations can exist for which some human intellect cannot conceive a coherent explanation, however complicated”
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:54 pm UTC



This appears to be just routine stuff. You sign up for the military, and they determine you don't qualify, out you go. There's significant churn between contract signing and going to basic, which is what this mostly appears to be.

Not making it through your background check is an entirely normal reason to be tossed out, immigrant or not. Depending on how long your check takes, this can be even after you've gone through basic. It's an administrative discharge, it's not gonna fuck up your life or send you to jail. It's unfortunate, especially because background checks can be blown for stuff relatives have done or what not, but it's not at all unique to immigrants.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:59 pm UTC

Did you see the part about the program put in place in 2002 to try to scrape together enough linguists and medical staff for the GWOT has been scrapped this year?

Good job the USA's not involved in any kind of military action anywhere and won't be for at least another ten years, eh?
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