British Snap Election - Theresa, Meh; Corbyn near-win; So long, Farron, auf wiedersehen goodbyeee

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Regardless of all other practicalities, I will (or would if I could) mostly be voting...

Poll ended at Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:48 am UTC

...for the local candidate I like best.
1
6%
...against the local candidate I like least.
0
No votes
...for the party I think best shares my core not-Brexit views.
8
44%
...against the party I think does not share my core not-Brexit views.
4
22%
...for the leader I think deserves to be PM.
2
11%
...against the leader who should not be PM.
1
6%
...to align with a type-of-Brexit/no-Brexit view.
0
No votes
...to spoil a type-of-Brexit/no-Brexit view.
0
No votes
...regarding IndyRef2/more localised issue..
0
No votes
...pointedly withholding/spoiling my vote.
0
No votes
...not at all (apathy, etc)
2
11%
...with a completely different strategy in mind.
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 18

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Thesh » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:19 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:
Angua wrote:My fingers are crossed for Jeremy *unt to be booted out.

I have dipped my finger in the ink today so civic duty is complete.

Why would he be booted out if he did much better than expected? I mean it's still a poor showing for Labour, they still lost the election, but compared to where they were coming from it's a pretty good showing. If labour wasn't willing to get rid of Corbyn after the Brexit vote*, why would they get rid of him now?

* I know many people were in fact willing to get rid of him after the Brexit vote. But not enough, clearly.

Hunt, not Corbyn.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Angua » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:20 pm UTC

Psstt I think you've got the wrong Jeremy.

For the record, I have always been generally happy with Corbyn.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Xenomortis » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:25 pm UTC

The first few results (mostly Labour safe seats) have the Tories generally doing better than exit polls suggested, so we may see them cling onto their majority.
This still isn't really good news for May - she needs to do a *lot* better than the exit poll to come out of this looking good.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Diadem » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:45 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:
Diadem wrote:
Angua wrote:My fingers are crossed for Jeremy *unt to be booted out.

I have dipped my finger in the ink today so civic duty is complete.

Why would he be booted out if he did much better than expected? I mean it's still a poor showing for Labour, they still lost the election, but compared to where they were coming from it's a pretty good showing. If labour wasn't willing to get rid of Corbyn after the Brexit vote*, why would they get rid of him now?

* I know many people were in fact willing to get rid of him after the Brexit vote. But not enough, clearly.

Hunt, not Corbyn.

Oh that Jeremy. In my defense, that was less than clear from Angua's post.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby ElWanderer » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:49 am UTC

Well that was a pile of fail, if you were after a strong and stable government. It looks like the Conservatives will form a minority government , propped up by the DUP, which is unlikely to last long... so another election looks likely and there will be much uncertainty.

Interesting picture in Scotland. It's not clear if the SNP losing almost half their seats is just a regression to the mean (they could only go downhill after 2015) or a genuine rejection of neverending talk of another independence referendum. A bit of both, perhaps.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Xenomortis » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:11 am UTC

ElWanderer wrote:Interesting picture in Scotland. It's not clear if the SNP losing almost half their seats is just a regression to the mean (they could only go downhill after 2015) or a genuine rejection of neverending talk of another independence referendum. A bit of both, perhaps.

11(?) Scottish seats went to the Conservatives.
Regression to the mean would sound reasonable, but the Tories haven't done that well in Scotland since 1992 at least - maybe even pre-Thatcher.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:18 am UTC

Edinburgh Zoo needs to play catch-up, to ensure there are more pandas in Scotland than Tory MPs, again. (I think it being otherwise is now officially one of the Signs of the End Of Days?)

Anyway.. Gooood Morning Vietnam!!!

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby HES » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:05 am UTC

Diadem wrote:
Thesh wrote:Hunt, not Corbyn.

Oh that Jeremy. In my defense, that was less than clear from Angua's post.

Otherwise known as Jeremy Cunt. Hence the ambiguous spelling.

I'm very happy with the result, it's about as good as Labour were ever going to do and my constituency is no longer conservative. A hung parliament isn't ideal but I will absolutely take that over the maliciously destructive Tory government we just crippled.

And if nothing else, turnout was massively up amongst the youth. Hopefully we can keep it that way.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:30 am UTC

Yes, youth turnout was estimated to be 72%. Compared with 43% in 2015.

So, it'll be interesting to see what coalitions can possibly form out of this. The Conservatives surely must be part of any possibly coalition, otherwise basically every other party would have to join together to get enough seats. So the Cons are looking for a party they can work with to make up the 8 extra seats they need. So possibilities are:
1. SNP (35)
2. Lib Dems (12)
3. DUP (10)
4. Sinn Fein + Greens (7 + 1)

The idea of the Conservatives joining with the SNP would be hilarious and ironic, but isn't going to happen. Lib Dems already ruled out a coalition with the tories. I only included the 4th one for a joke. So, unsurprisingly it seems the tories are in talks with DUP for a coalition. This would have a considerable impact on the Brexit negotiations. The DUP are very concerned about the possibility of a hard border with the rest of Ireland, and could make a condition of the coalition that free movement without border checks with RoI continues.

Labour say they're looking to form a minority government, the only way I can see that being possible is this coalition:
Labour (261) + SNP (35) + Lib Dems (12) + DUP (10) + Sinn Fein (7) + Green (1) = 326

That would be... mad. I don't see how that could work. I think we're looking at either Con + DUP, or a second election.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:40 am UTC

The poll on the thread having automatically ended, I must say that I'm relatively upbeat about the distribution.

Less concentration on who our MPs are, than I'd like, but otherwise definitely skewed to the "and I want this type of long-term representation" zone, even more important given the tits-for-tats we're going to get. And I like the affirmative voting winning over the opposite. This is just how I look at it, though, I acknowledge that there's room for other approaches. Thanks for voting, anyway.

(Ironically, I deliberately did not, myself, fearing that if I had compiled the questions with "my" option worded to just fit my opinion exactly then that would have an advantage of one, in an already almost impenetrable list.)

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:05 am UTC

I am (slowly) starting to sober up after quite the night. I think I had somewhere in the region of three bottles of wine and a litre of cider (over about 12 hours)

I am fucking pleased. This was May's election to lose and she has done so, the youth got our and​ voted and the Tories are scrambling to find a government (let alone a strong and stable one).

I may not get the £240 return on my £10 bet but I am pleased with this result.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:23 am UTC

The only way last night could have gone any worse for Theresa May is if she'd lost her own constituency to Lord Buckethead.

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Also, Tim Farron managed to see off a challenge from Mr Fishfinger.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Xenomortis » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:39 am UTC

Mutex wrote:Labour say they're looking to form a minority government, the only way I can see that being possible is this coalition:
Labour (261) + SNP (35) + Lib Dems (12) + DUP (10) + Sinn Fein (7) + Green (1) = 326

That would be... mad. I don't see how that could work. I think we're looking at either Con + DUP, or a second election.

Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so it'd still be short.

The Conservatives may just about manage a minority government, it'll be tough to push through controversial legislation (like further spending cuts), but on other matters there may not be enough coordinated opposition (barring Tory rebels, a very real threat).

That said, the last time Britain tried a minority government, it lasted about 6 months (although it was much closer - 301 Labour vs 297 Conservative, with the Tories winning the popular vote) - Wilson (L) called another election and secured a (small) majority later that year.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:46 am UTC

Yes, reading about that it seems that because Sinn Fein don't take their seats, you only actually need 322 seats for a majority (643 / 2 = 321.5). Which means that Labour would have to join forces with the SNP, the Lib Dems, DUP, and Plaid Cymru to get 322 seats.

DUP have ruled out a coalition with Labour due to Corbyn's Sinn Fein links. So, Con + DUP remains the only viable coalition. Or we get a minority government as you say. Or a second election, which seems unlikely given how soon the EU talks are meant to start.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:16 pm UTC

Yeah, the Tories and DUP have said they're going to try and form a government together (looks like without a formal agreement but, tbh, they don't need one given how well they align on most issues).

I can't see May sticking around long and that majority looks pretty weak and wobbly. I'm expecting round two in a few months with a new Tory leader against a vindicated Corbyn
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Diadem » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:38 pm UTC

So the BBC is reporting that May has announced she's forming a government with the DUP. Which confused the heck out of me, because how on earth can reach a coalition agreement that quickly? But reading closer it seems like nothing has been agreed yet. They just started talking. So either I'm completely misunderstanding British politics or May's announcement seems exceptionally premature.

Over here coalition governments are the norm, not the exception. But forming a coalition takes at least a few weeks, and often a few months. You have to compare party platforms, see where there's agreement, on where trades can be made on points of disagreement. Usually there's a few rounds of consulting with party members. It takes time. And these talks break down quite often. It's common for there to be a few failed attempts before a successful coalition is formed. I can see things going faster in the UK. For one there's not really a plausible alternative coalition available. But even then negotiations take time and can fail, right? The DUP has no reason to not start out demanding the world, and then waiting and seeing how much May is willing to give.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby ElWanderer » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:50 pm UTC

It's not a true coalition in that the parties won't be sharing power. The DUP tend to vote in the same direction as the Conservatives and May has presumably had a quick chat with them to confirm that they will continue to do so. It'll be a minority Conservative government, propped up by DUP votes where necessary. That will mean the Conservatives having to avoid annoying the DUP, but they'll probably have more trouble trying to keep their own backbenchers in line.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby elliptic » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:33 pm UTC

That plus things just tend to happen quickly after UK elections. The idea of a several-week-long interregnum whilst the dust settles and the parties talk things over would be anathema, even without the upcoming Brexit negotiations looming over everything.

In 2010 it took five days flat for the Tories and Lib Dems to negotiate and seal a formal coalition, and that was a situation where the LDs had a much larger representation in parliament, and could have aligned themselves (at least in theory) with either of the main parties.

This time round Theresa might not even have survived the weekend against her own party's recriminations without some sort of a deal agreed now, today, to let her go the palace. Meanwhile the DUP will be happy knowing they'll never have a better opportunity to exert influence over a government, for as long as they choose to prop them up. There's no other realistic way to add the numbers up to get a majority in the House of Commons, so why would either party wait?

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Jumble » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:01 pm UTC

And, I'm back in the room. Post purdah, so I can have an opinion again.

I may be an old cynic, but I can't help thinking a government propped up by religiously intolerant, homophobic climate change deniers may not last that long. See you back at the polling station in October.

Someone has pointed out (i.e. I'm not taking the credit) that to be fair to her May had warned of a 'coalition of chaos propped up by extremist terrorist sympathisers'. She just didn't say she'd be leading it.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:04 pm UTC

Are the DUP terrorist sympathisers? I thought they were the opposite.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby HES » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:23 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:Someone has pointed out (i.e. I'm not taking the credit) that to be fair to her May had warned of a 'coalition of chaos propped up by extremist terrorist sympathisers'. She just didn't say she'd be leading it.

I saw the same, and was absolutely going to take the credit. ;)
Mutex wrote:Are the DUP terrorist sympathisers? I thought they were the opposite.

Different terrorists.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:24 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Mutex wrote:Are the DUP terrorist sympathisers? I thought they were the opposite.

Different terrorists.

Which ones do they support? Were there pro-union terrorists during the troubles?

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Diadem » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:28 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Are the DUP terrorist sympathisers?

<snark>
Isn't that what the U in their name means?
</snark>
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Jumble » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:29 pm UTC

There were several unionist paramilitary groups during the troubles that were proscribed by the UK government as terrorist organisations (e.g. Ulster Defence Association, Ulster Freedom Fighters). At the time Rev Ian Paisley refused to condemn their actions, although to be fair after the Good Friday agreement he and Martin McGuiness both promoted the disbanding of paramilitary groups on both sides. Their working relationship was so close that they were described as 'the chuckle brothers".
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:29 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:There were several unionist paramilitary groups during the troubles that were proscribed by the UK government as terrorist organisations (e.g. Ulster Defence Association, Ulster Freedom Fighters). At the time Rev Ian Paisley refused to condemn their actions, although to be fair after the Good Friday agreement he and Martin McGuiness both promoted the disbanding of paramilitary groups on both sides. Their working relationship was so close that they were described as 'the chuckle brothers".

Ah I see.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Aceo » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:40 pm UTC

Spoiler:
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Their MPs tried somewhat...
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Jumble » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:04 pm UTC

Or this...

Spoiler:
IMG_0224.JPG
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby RCT Bob » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:23 pm UTC

Looks like the Netherlands is not the only country with strange parties. We've had parties whose main campaign promise was to reveal all 'government-held secrets concerning extraterrestrial life', we've had extremely religious parties wishing to ban abortion, same-sex marriage, and euthanasia (good luck getting those banned in the Netherlands), we've even had a party of non-voters whose campaign promise was to represent the non-voters by never showing up in parliament to vote. Of course they suffered from the fact that the people they were representing did what they do best, so they didn't get sufficient votes to reach a single seat. Our voting system is a bit different. Here you simply get seats proportional to your total vote share, we don't have districts for national elections, so it doesn't matter where in the country someone voted. I don't think we've ever had a party reaching a majority in parliament in our national history. Our voting system doesn't force a two-party system as much as the UK or US election systems of winner-takes-all per district or state.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Diadem » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:20 pm UTC

RCT Bob wrote:Our voting system is a bit different. Here you simply get seats proportional to your total vote share, we don't have districts for national elections, so it doesn't matter where in the country someone voted. I don't think we've ever had a party reaching a majority in parliament in our national history.

The Liberal Union (a predecessor of the predecessor of the predecessor of today's VVD) got 53 out of 100 seats back in 1891. Liberal of course in the European meaning of the word. This was back when we still had a district system, and before universal suffrage. So not exactly relevant for today's situation. But I love historic trivia.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Xenomortis » Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:26 pm UTC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107
So May has sacked two of her close aides Two of May's aides have "resigned" following the result.
The understanding is that some Tory MPs threatened a leadership contest if they were kept on.

Her position is tenuous - if there were an "obvious" successor then I would expect a contest pretty much immediately, but I don't know who the party would put in her place.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby HES » Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:59 pm UTC

Boris, Laughably.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Xenomortis » Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:02 pm UTC

I'm £200 up if it happens.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Jumble » Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:12 pm UTC

I'd guess Boris and Amber Rudd in the final run-off. As a Foreign Office diplomat I think, erm, I'd better not comment...

Of course, it doesn't matter because whoever wins will still be under the thumb of bigoted, homophobic, creationist morons. Fun times.

Speaking as a Labour supporter my whole life, before we crack open the champagne, we need to figure out how to win. Happy to accept that may need to be led by Corbyn, but in case anyone missed it, we came second. No prize for second place.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby elasto » Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:07 pm UTC

I'm really pleased to have been so wrong in my predictions. I completely underestimated:
- how charismatic Corbyn would be, giving relaxed and full answers to questions
- how wooden, defensive and evasive May would behave
- how badly the Tory would mishandle their manifesto

But by far the most important factor seems to be how the youth has been re-energised. I think Brexit showed them that their votes absolutely matter. The grey vote brought about Brexit but it is mostly the young who will suffer as a result, and it woke them from their slumber. Long may it continue.

In previous elections I have supported the whole gamut of the political spectrum, from Tory to Labour to Lib Dem. I had been planning on supporting the Lib Dems this time around because I think they were unfairly scapegoated during the coalition, but on a whim put my X next to the Labour candidate on election day because I really believed in their policies, even though I fully expected Labour to be crushed, but was surprised to find I was much less alone in my thinking than I had imagined.

I think it represents a serious diminution in the power of the traditional print media, who almost completely threw their weight behind the Tories - the Sun's headline on polling day was particularly offensive, but seemingly ignored.

But I am seriously puzzled about how so many polls were so wrong yet again - even polls taken on the eve of the election. This result was completely off the charts.

I still think Corbyn needs to improve his team, and hopefully some center-left political heavyweights will now join the Corbyn bandwagon, so when the next election comes about he can build on this. I will be particularly interested to hear what Blair and Campbell have to say, for example. Ed Miliband has already admitted he wished his manifesto had been more radical.

Imagine if the Labour party had thrown their weight behind Corbyn from the beginning; It's not hard to imagine it would have been Corbyn as PM today, not May.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:40 pm UTC

elasto wrote:But by far the most important factor seems to be how the youth has been re-energised. I think Brexit showed them that their votes absolutely matter. The grey vote brought about Brexit but it is mostly the young who will suffer as a result, and it woke them from their slumber. Long may it continue.

(...)

But I am seriously puzzled about how so many polls were so wrong yet again - even polls taken on the eve of the election. This result was completely off the charts.


I think there's a connection there. The polls were expecting young people to vote in similar amounts to other recent elections, that 72% youth turnout took everyone by surprise.

elasto wrote:Imagine if the Labour party had thrown their weight behind Corbyn from the beginning; It's not hard to imagine it would have been Corbyn as PM today, not May.


No, because May wouldn't have called the election if Labour weren't so far behind in the polls. Then again, it would have meant the next election would have been in 2020, right after we'll have had a terrible Brexit deal and the tories are hated, leading to a Labour landslide. Perhaps.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby elasto » Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:56 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:I think there's a connection there. The polls were expecting young people to vote in similar amounts to other recent elections, that 72% youth turnout took everyone by surprise.

I think you must be right, but why didn't any polling organisation pick up on the fact that youth turnout would be higher? Surely they must have methodology to predict turnout?

No, because May wouldn't have called the election if Labour weren't so far behind in the polls.

True.

I wonder when the next election will be. Some people are predicting the DUP partnership will only last 12-18 months, but I can't see an election being called before the Brexit negotiations have been concluded unless relations seriously fall apart.

I think it will all depend on when the Tory party decides to dump May, which will depend on how what legislation she puts before parliament. Too many unpopular policies or too many u-turns and she'll quickly become toast. And then I can't see anything but a Rudd vs Johnson runoff either.

It's basically the polar opposite of 'strong and stable government' that's for sure...

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ElWanderer
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby ElWanderer » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:20 pm UTC

The YouGov poll a couple of days before the election that had Labour only 3(? based on my memory) points behind (as opposed to 7-20) was supposedly based on a higher-than-usual youth turnout. It was a bit of an outlier as a poll, but turned out to be closer to the real results than most.

That said, the 72% turnout of 18-24 year olds is a figure that has been bandied about, but without any supporting data. There was a BBC reality check on it...
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:21 pm UTC

elasto wrote:
Mutex wrote:I think there's a connection there. The polls were expecting young people to vote in similar amounts to other recent elections, that 72% youth turnout took everyone by surprise.

I think you must be right, but why didn't any polling organisation pick up on the fact that youth turnout would be higher? Surely they must have methodology to predict turnout?


Other than looking at past turnout? Possibly not...

elasto wrote:I wonder when the next election will be. Some people are predicting the DUP partnership will only last 12-18 months, but I can't see an election being called before the Brexit negotiations have been concluded unless relations seriously fall apart.

I think it will all depend on when the Tory party decides to dump May, which will depend on how what legislation she puts before parliament. Too many unpopular policies or too many u-turns and she'll quickly become toast. And then I can't see anything but a Rudd vs Johnson runoff either.

It's basically the polar opposite of 'strong and stable government' that's for sure...


I think the best we can hope for right now is the coalition holds together long enough to get through the Brexit negotiations, with DUP pressuring May into making sure there's an open border with Ireland which forces her to accept a softer Brexit. I don't see much good coming from more election chaos at this time.

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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Fractal_Tangent » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:29 pm UTC

ElWanderer wrote:
The YouGov poll a couple of days before the election that had Labour only 3(? based on my memory) points behind (as opposed to 7-20) was supposedly based on a higher-than-usual youth turnout. It was a bit of an outlier as a poll, but turned out to be closer to the real results than most.

That said, the 72% turnout of 18-24 year olds is a figure that has been bandied about, but without any supporting data. There was a BBC reality check on it...

I'd like to second the question of where the hell this number came from. Everyone keeps saying it but I haven't seen where it's come from yet. I've not seen any other demographics mentioned either.
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Re: British Snap Election - not a re-referendum?

Postby Mutex » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:35 pm UTC

Right, that reality check says:

A figure of 72% turnout for 18 to 24-year-olds has been doing the rounds, including in a tweet from Labour MP David Lammy, but there has been much doubt about its origin.
BBC Trending has spoken to Alex Cairns, who seems to have been the first person to tweet this. It was later tweeted by the president of the National Union of Students.
Mr Cairns stressed that the figure was "an indication" and was based on conversations with student union presidents and his own research, but did not show us his calculations.


So yeah, it's bollocks apparently. But Ipsos Mori are doing a survey which will be published next week.


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