pogrmman wrote:I’m watching the O Rourke/Cruz debate right now (because, you know, I’m in TX and am a voter) and Cruz is frankly pissing me off. He’s just basically ignored all the questions and all of O Rourke’s statements and returned to standard talking points. For instance, in the very first question about Dreamers, Cruz entirely ignored the part about Dreamers and takes about illegal immigrants in general — not focusing on the fact that they often were brought over by their parents instead of doing it themselves. They’re both walking all over the moderators, too — the moderators seem nervous, too.
Latest turnout projections are bad for Democrats. 538 assumes high turnout is better for Beto. The conversion from all voters to likely voters shows much lower turnout. Do you need a citation?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... wer-votes/
Turns out that Republicans waste votes too.
Simply put, if you live in a district with fewer voters, your vote makes up a bigger share of the total — which makes your vote worth more — and it takes fewer votes to carry the district. So while Democrats may win solidly blue districts with relatively few total votes, GOP candidates are more likely to run up the score in reliably Republican districts, winning by huge margins. In both cases, all votes beyond the 50 percent mark are “wasted” (after all, no matter how much you win by, you can only win one seat per district), but the size disparity means that more votes are wasted in bigger, redder districts. But those votes still count toward the national popular vote, making it theoretically possible for Republicans to win the national popular vote but still lose majority control because Democrats got more bang for their buck — or, in this case, votes.
Tldr Democratic districts have more people, but only low% of them can or will vote. GOP districts have lots of voters, and lots of them vote, which wastes all the votes over 50%.
The effect size isn't as big as gerrymandering/self sorting, but it does fuel GOP arguments to redistrict by voters instead of total population. This is already baked into the model, but it'll provide fuel for future census/redistricting fights.