That seems about right. I would think that insider trading would be viewed more dimly, but it doesn't seem to be hated as much as other crimes by other people. Such is life, I guess. I do concur that the party itself has moved left somewhat. As long as it's gradual enough, I don't think it'll cause them large PR concerns, but I still view folks like Ocasio-Cortez as further to the left than the majority of the party. Flip side, of course, is that Republicans have also gotten more partisan, so if moving to the extremes *is* a downside, it's not one that is necessarily easy to pick out since both are doing it.
If memory serves, traditional theory goes that the main two parties are drawn close together to capture the largest part of the electorate, but if that's still the case, it's hard to square that with modern partisanship. I'm not sure I have a good answer for this, but I'm going to noodle it about some more, see if a testable theory comes to mind.
The new election model is...intriguing. I don't really know what to think about it without seeing it, but I am curious. Silver's done good modeling work before, but nobody's perfect, yknow?
CorruptUser wrote:I think most of this amounts to, well, I'm not sure I have the proper word for it. Living in a fantasy, obsessed with some hopeful outcome in a borderline sexual manner, ignoring all alternative interpretations or evidence to the contrary? There has to be a good word for that. "Wankery"? Don't think that's the term. "Thoughtsturbation"?
Well, it depends where you get your information from. Low quality media on both sides will happily triumph how such and such a thing is fated, but as you look at more analytic sources, there's a lot more acknowledgement of limitations. 538's live blog is generally far more informal than other writings, and the authors generally don't hide their hopes. This is probably good, the bias is there anyways, might as well put it up front. Still, their methodology and articles are better than most in this area.
Also, they tend to look for reasons behind the trends, which is useful. Poll numbers in a vacuum only tell you so much. Looking at the larger trends, what they follow, and how to influence them is more informative and predictive.
You also get less wishful thinking when actually money is involved. There's still some. 3-6%, if I recall correctly. I ran through a bunch of politicized races on predictit and averaged out market irrationalities found in political markets. It may be larger, but there are possibly others like me who hunt such irregularities for profit. Hard to say for sure. In any case, making bets based on feelings alone is a brutally rough strategy. So, long term, I think prediction markets are of significant value. Players who use poor methodologies grow increasingly less able to manipulate odds.