I don't think you understand what regression to the mean is.CorruptUser wrote:There's a little thing called regression. Your descendants are not expected to be as far from the average as you currently are. The rich do no get richer; they get replaced by new rich people. After a certain amount of time, the descendants of the currently rich will be indistinguishable from those currently dirt poor. Go back far enough, most people here were serfs or other types of slaves, rapists and victims, soldiers and mercenaries, kings and warlords, merchants and craftsman.
Regression to the mean happens because sometimes your outcome is better or worse than some "true" average. For example, if a baseball player hits .325 during one season, there are three possibilities:
1. His true average is .300 and he got lucky
2. His true average is .325 and he didn't have good or bad luck
3. His true average is .350 and he had bad luck
Since (1) is much more likely than (3) (due to the greater number of .300 hitters), you expect that a randomly selected .325 hitter will perform worse next season.
But wealth does not work the same way. If you are poor or rich, you do not pass on some "true wealth" like the baseball player passes on his "true average" from season to season. Your children grow up in an environment that's exactly as privileged as you actually are. It's as though the .300 baseball player, after having a .325 season, actually became a true .325 hitter for next season. In such a scenario, you would not see movement, on average.