CorruptUser wrote:Not that I blame Florida. Why should Iowa always get to have the first primary? All that does is ensure that Iowa keeps getting farming subsidies, distorting the market and making everyone but Iowa poorer. Fuck you, Iowa. Just because you are in the center of the country doesn't mean you are the center of the country.
Minor nitpick, but NH has the first primary, Iowa just gets a stupid caucus. Primaries are much more awesome (You could even say they're "wicked better"). Also, I'm from NH, but I hate my state (seriously, fuck NH).
Anyway, the problem with that specific criticism is that any state being the first primary / caucus will distort things in their favor. Florida being first will mean more things to help old people and Cuban-Americans, California first would mean more focus on Latino-Americans, and so on.
That said, I think you're overestimating the political impact of such- farm subsidies aren't just popular in Iowa, but in much of the midwest and the south (though it probably won't be corn for them). What political advantage does NH get out of being the first primary? None that I know of. The early states get a boon far easier to grasp: money. All of that advertising, campaign staff and offices, campaign stops, material, and so on, brings a lot of money into the state. It's also why the early states are pissed about the debate heavy primary- more focus is on the debates than before, meaning less campaigning in the states themselves, and thus, less money.
All Florida is interested in is that money, and they knew they just had to play chicken long enough with the major parties to get it. They didn't get it in 2008, because everyone was pissed about it, but they were only punished with a slap on the wrist because nobody wanted to piss off all the local politicians that would help them with campaigning in the biggest swing state in the nation. If I was a betting man, I'd be willing to bet that in 2016 (if Obama wins, else 2020) both parties will be afraid of even threatening to take away half of Florida's delegates. I don't think many other states could repeat what Florida has done here, actually- a non swing state will just get told to shut up and go away, and a smaller swing state would have to be able to out-maneuver both Florida and whoever it was attempting to replace.
I also highly doubt anyone will be able to replace Iowa & NH as the first states anytime soon- NH is willing to go as batshit crazy as they need to in order to retain their position (we threatened to move our primary into fucking December just to ensure Nevada wasn't too soon after us- they weren't even trying to get ahead), and I doubt Iowa feels much different. Not that it can't or won't happen, but it'd take either an unlikely turn of events or careful (and long turn) planning on behalf of some other states.