Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

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Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Dauric » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:25 pm UTC

From NPR.org

Spoiler:
Freddie Mac, a taxpayer-owned mortgage company, is supposed to make homeownership easier. One thing that makes owning a home more affordable is getting a cheaper mortgage.

But Freddie Mac has invested billions of dollars betting that U.S. homeowners won't be able to refinance their mortgages at today's lower rates, according to an investigation by NPR and ProPublica, an independent, nonprofit newsroom.

These investments, while legal, raise concerns about a conflict of interest within Freddie Mac.

"We were actually shocked they did this," says Scott Simon, who heads the mortgage-backed securities team at the giant bond trading and investment firm called PIMCO. "It seemed so out of line with their mission, out of line with what Congress wanted them to do."


Freddie Mac, formally called the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., was chartered by Congress in 1970. On its website, it says it has "a public mission to stabilize the nation's residential mortgage markets and expand opportunities for homeownership." The company is owned by U.S. taxpayers and overseen by a regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

In December, Freddie's chief executive, Charles Haldeman, assured Congress his company is "helping financially strapped families reduce their mortgage costs through refinancing their mortgages."

But public documents show that in 2010 and 2011, Freddie Mac set out to make gains for its own investment portfolio by using complex mortgage securities that brought in more money for Freddie Mac when homeowners in higher interest-rate loans were unable to qualify for a refinancing.

Those trades "put them squarely against the homeowner," PIMCO's Simon says.

Freddie Mac's trades came at a time when mortgage rates were falling to record lows. Millions of homeowners wish they could refinance, but their lenders tell them they can't qualify for today's low rates because of tight rules. Freddie Mac is one of the gatekeepers with the power to set those rules, and lately, it has been saying no more often to homeowners.

That raises concerns among some industry insiders who see a conflict: Freddie Mac's own financial health improves when homeowners can't refinance.

Simply put, "Freddie Mac prevented households from being able to take advantage of today's mortgage rates — and then bet on it," says Alan Boyce, a former bond trader who has been involved in efforts to push for more refinancing of home loans.

Freddie and FHFA repeatedly declined to comment on the specific transactions, but Freddie did say that its employees who make investment decisions are "walled off" from those who decide the rules for homeowners.

When Homeowners Lose, Freddie Mac Wins

Freddie Mac, based in Northern Virginia, says its job is to purchase "loans from lenders to replenish their supply of funds so that they [the lenders] can make more mortgage loans to other borrowers." That's one reason why Freddie has a gigantic portfolio containing loans that generate income from mortgage payments. Critics say this investment portfolio has been allowed to grow far larger than necessary to further Freddie's policy mission.

Plus, in 2010 and 2011, Freddie didn't just hold a simple pile of loans. Instead, for hundreds of thousands of home loans, it used Wall Street alchemy to chop these loans up into complicated securities — slices of which were sold in financial markets.

This hypothetical example may help explain what happens:

1) Freddie Mac takes, say, $1 billion worth of home loans and packages them. With the help of a Wall Street banker, it can then slice off parts of the bundle to create different investment securities, some riskier than others. The slices could be set up so that, say, $900 million worth are relatively safe investments, based upon homeowners paying the principal on their mortgages.

2) But the one remaining slice, worth $100 million, is the riskiest part. Freddie retains that slice, known as an "inverse floater," which receives all of the interest payments from the entire $1 billion worth of mortgages.

3) That riskiest investment pays out a lucrative stream of interest payments. But Freddie's slice also has all the so-called "pre-payment risk" associated with that $1 billion worth of loans. So if lots of people "pre-pay" their old loans and refinance into new, cheaper ones, then Freddie Mac starts to lose money. If people can't refinance, then Freddie wins because it continues to receive that flow of older, higher interest payments.

If the homeowner is unable to refinance, the Freddie Mac portfolio managers win, Simon says. "And if the homeowner can refinance, they lose."

Refinancing A Path To Recovery

In his State of the Union address, President Obama pushed for legislation to allow "every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage" by refinancing without what he called "red tape" or a "runaround from the banks."


Columbia University economist Chris Mayer supports such an approach. "A widespread refinancing program would have many benefits — not only helping the economy and putting tens of billions of dollars back in consumers' pockets, the equivalent of a very long-term tax cut," he says.

"It also is likely to reduce foreclosures and benefit the U.S. government by having fewer losses that they have to pay," Mayer adds.

In the long term, he says, allowing more Americans to refinance would help taxpayers as well as mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, because they would suffer fewer losses related to foreclosures. These inverse floater trades, however, give Freddie Mac a short-term incentive to resist such so-called "mass re-fi" programs.

"If there was a mass re-fi program, the bets they made would get absolutely wiped out," PIMCO's Simon says. "The way these bets do the best is if the homeowner is barred from refinancing."

In a written statement, Freddie said it "is actively supporting efforts for borrowers to realize the benefits of refinancing their mortgages to lower rates." It also says it refinanced loans for hundreds of thousands of borrowers just last year.

Fannie and Freddie have taken part in an existing federal program known as "HARP" to help Americans refinance, but many economists say far more homeowners would benefit if Fannie and Freddie were to implement the program more aggressively.

Stuck In 'Financial Jail'

Some homeowners believe the current re-fi game is stacked against them.

Jay and Bonnie Silverstein describe themselves as truly stuck in a bad mortgage. They live in an unfinished development of yellow stucco houses north of Philadelphia. The developer went bankrupt.

The Silversteins bought this home before the housing market crashed, and then couldn't sell their old house. They now say that buying a new home before selling the old one was a mistake — a painful one. Stuck with two mortgages, they started to get behind on their payments on the old house.

"It wound up taking us years to sell that house, so we had two homes and two mortgages for two-and-a-half years," Jay Silverstein says. "It burned up my 401(k) and drained us."

Jay Silverstein has a modest pension, and they haven't missed a mortgage payment on their current home. Still, they are struggling. They could make the monthly payment on their new home if they could just refinance — down from their current interest rate of near 7 percent to today's rates below 4 percent. That could save them roughly $500 a month.


EnlargeChris Arnold/NPR
If Jay and Bonnie Silverstein were able to refinance their mortgage, they could save nearly $500 a month. "We're living paycheck to paycheck," Jay says.
"You know, we're living paycheck to paycheck," he says. A lower rate "might go a long way toward helping us."

But that's the problem — getting approved for a refinancing. Here's why: After the housing market crashed, the Silversteins' old house had to be sold for less than the mortgage was worth. That's known as a short sale.

Freddie Mac has been tightening lending restrictions, and one of its restrictions blocks people with a short sale in their past from refinancing for up to four years following that short sale. So the Silversteins are stranded by the rule.

"We're in financial jail," Jay says. "We've never been there before."

Tight For Homeowners, But Elsewhere, Money Still Flows

Economists say that during the housing bubble, lending standards got too loose. Now many believe the pendulum has swung too far, making rules too tight.

The short-sale restriction may be a good example. For a home purchase, such a rule may be prudent, but allowing people with existing loans to refinance actually lowers the risk that they may default by giving them more affordable mortgage payments.

In a recent analysis of remedies for the stalled housing market, the Federal Reserve criticized Fannie and Freddie for the fees they have charged for refinancing. Such fees are "another possible reason for low rates of refinancing," the Fed wrote, adding that the charges are "difficult to justify."

Meanwhile, even though Freddie is a ward of the federal government, its top executives are highly compensated. The Freddie Mac official then in charge of its investment portfolio, Peter Federico, made $2.5 million in 2010, and had target compensation of $2.6 million for last year — the time period during which most of these inverse floater investments were made. ProPublica and NPR made numerous attempts to reach Federico. A woman who answered his home phone said he declined to comment.


The TL;DR of it (and it is kind of a long article) is that Freddie Mac, a government-chartered company owned by taxpayers and overseen by the Federal Housing Finance Authority with the stated goal of "a public mission to stabilize the nation's residential mortgage markets and expand opportunities for homeownership." is heavily invested in securities derivatives, specifically something called an "Inverse Floater", where FM sells off the rights to being repaid on the principle of the loan, but retains the rights to be repaid on the interest.

If someone holding one of those loans that FM has an inverse floater on gets refinanced at a lower rate Freddie Mac loses money on the deal (being only paid back at ~4% rather than at the ~7% that many of these loans were issued at).

The kick in the teeth for homeowners is that while current interest rates are at all-time lows and refinancing would allow many homeowners who are "Under Water" (owing more than the house is worth) to keep their homes (which many economists say that lowering the foreclosure rate is key to an economic recovery), Freddie Mac is one of the federal gatekeepers that determines who gets to refinance their loans and they're financially incentivized by these inverse floaters to not grant those requests to refinance.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby lucrezaborgia » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:31 pm UTC

Aren't most of the board members former bankers?
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby lutzj » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:32 pm UTC

Do they also have some protection/insurance for foreclosures? If the difference in interest is enough for them to be able to eat the costs of many more defaulted loans then that's messed up.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Arrian » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:49 pm UTC

By "betting against" some borrowers, Freddie Mac is very likely hedging their portfolio and thereby lowering their risk of losing money. Remember, people are still up in arms over the bailout Freddie required as a result of the mortgage crisis. So wouldn't balancing their portfolio in a way to reduce risk of further bailouts be a good thing?

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were designed to increase home ownership through a more liquid market for mortgages, in order to do so they need to act like market participants and, if not make a profit, at least break even. Improving the liquidity of the market should increase home ownership without distorting prices (we can discuss how and why home prices became distorted, in detail, somewhere else,) the other option would be to simply subsidize home purchases. But that's not what those institutions were designed to do, so they've got to protect their investment portfolios by doing things like hedging against inflation risks. If you want to subsidize home ownership, you should eliminate Fannie, Freddie and Ginni and just hand out money.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Dauric » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:21 pm UTC

Freddie Mac's trades came at a time when mortgage rates were falling to record lows. Millions of homeowners wish they could refinance, but their lenders tell them they can't qualify for today's low rates because of tight rules. Freddie Mac is one of the gatekeepers with the power to set those rules, and lately, it has been saying no more often to homeowners.


They're not just a lender hedging their portfolios, they're the ones setting the lending rules. Being both participant and referee is a conflict of interest. The borrowers can't refinance unless the rules say they can, but the ones setting the rules have a stake in the game.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Ceron » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:23 pm UTC

To me this sounds awfully close to what got us in the mess in the first place. Because Freddie Mac is selling off a lot of risk with these derivatives, they have less incentive to make good loans that will actually be repaid, to say nothing of the disincentives to help struggling homeowners.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Falling » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:51 pm UTC

I'm not expert here, but like Dauric said, it's more than just hedging their bets. The way it is set up is they actually fare better when someone defaults, and since they are in controlling of loans getting refinanced, that's a bad thing.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Arrian » Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:22 pm UTC

Dauric wrote:
Freddie Mac's trades came at a time when mortgage rates were falling to record lows. Millions of homeowners wish they could refinance, but their lenders tell them they can't qualify for today's low rates because of tight rules. Freddie Mac is one of the gatekeepers with the power to set those rules, and lately, it has been saying no more often to homeowners.


They're not just a lender hedging their portfolios, they're the ones setting the lending rules. Being both participant and referee is a conflict of interest. The borrowers can't refinance unless the rules say they can, but the ones setting the rules have a stake in the game.


It depends, are they changing the criteria for refinancing ex post in order to screw people over and make money? Or did they make the rules ex ante, then choose to hedge those loans that were made under those rules that would make good hedges? In the former case, yeah, that sounds pretty bad. But in the latter, that's just acknowledging reality. There are reasons some people are paying 6- or 7% interest on loans when others are paying 3.5% or lower: Interest rates reflect risk, high interest rates mean the algorithm says the borrower is at high risk of default.

I haven't studied the issue closely, but I can guarantee you that Freddie Mac doesn't sell a bunch of inverse floaters, then look over at their portfolio and ask "how can we force these guys into default?" It's almost certain that they buy up a bunch of mortgages, look at which are likely to default under their current rules, and sell those as inverse floaters. What I can't tell you, however, is how often they change the rules on refinancing or what kind of oversight and input outside factors (Congress, the Fed, etc.) have when they do change them. If they change the rules to something more strict, there will be a group that loses out (the people who were eligible to refinance before the change but not after,) which might be screwing people over for profit, or may be an honest reassessment of the actuarial likelihood of a group of loans to get repaid given current economic trends. Were any consumer watchdog groups calling Freddie Mac out over its refinancing policies for economic reasons before the story broke that they were selling inverse floaters? That would be an indicator over whether the policy is primarily greedy or primarily actuarial.

Is it Freddie Mac's fault for buying loans with higher default risks, therefore making people who are likely to default more likely to get a loan? Maybe, but they're under government direction to encourage home ownership by disadvantaged (and therefore higher risk, they wouldn't be disadvantaged if they weren't high risk) groups.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Dauric » Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:40 pm UTC

Apparently there's enough shady about the deal that Freddie Mac has been told to stop the practice by the FHFA last month.

Propublica follow-up article (NPR's article was in collaboration with NPR. Linkage to Propublica's first article which has some more detail than NPR's)

FHFA isn't releasing specific details of what they've found, but Freddie agreed that the transactions would not resume after FHFA's examination of the records.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Radical_Initiator » Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:47 pm UTC

Dauric wrote:(NPR's article was in collaboration with NPR. )

I should think self-collaboration is a conflict of interest as well, but I'm not versed on NPR.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby Dauric » Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:49 pm UTC

Radical_Initiator wrote:
Dauric wrote:(NPR's article was in collaboration with NPR. )

I should think self-collaboration is a conflict of interest as well, but I'm not versed on NPR.

Gah... I'm tired. I meant NPR and Propublica.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby kiklion » Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:08 pm UTC

Arrian wrote:
Dauric wrote:
Freddie Mac's trades came at a time when mortgage rates were falling to record lows. Millions of homeowners wish they could refinance, but their lenders tell them they can't qualify for today's low rates because of tight rules. Freddie Mac is one of the gatekeepers with the power to set those rules, and lately, it has been saying no more often to homeowners.


They're not just a lender hedging their portfolios, they're the ones setting the lending rules. Being both participant and referee is a conflict of interest. The borrowers can't refinance unless the rules say they can, but the ones setting the rules have a stake in the game.


It depends, are they changing the criteria for refinancing ex post in order to screw people over and make money? Or did they make the rules ex ante, then choose to hedge those loans that were made under those rules that would make good hedges? In the former case, yeah, that sounds pretty bad. But in the latter, that's just acknowledging reality. There are reasons some people are paying 6- or 7% interest on loans when others are paying 3.5% or lower: Interest rates reflect risk, high interest rates mean the algorithm says the borrower is at high risk of default.

I haven't studied the issue closely, but I can guarantee you that Freddie Mac doesn't sell a bunch of inverse floaters, then look over at their portfolio and ask "how can we force these guys into default?" It's almost certain that they buy up a bunch of mortgages, look at which are likely to default under their current rules, and sell those as inverse floaters. What I can't tell you, however, is how often they change the rules on refinancing or what kind of oversight and input outside factors (Congress, the Fed, etc.) have when they do change them. If they change the rules to something more strict, there will be a group that loses out (the people who were eligible to refinance before the change but not after,) which might be screwing people over for profit, or may be an honest reassessment of the actuarial likelihood of a group of loans to get repaid given current economic trends. Were any consumer watchdog groups calling Freddie Mac out over its refinancing policies for economic reasons before the story broke that they were selling inverse floaters? That would be an indicator over whether the policy is primarily greedy or primarily actuarial.

Is it Freddie Mac's fault for buying loans with higher default risks, therefore making people who are likely to default more likely to get a loan? Maybe, but they're under government direction to encourage home ownership by disadvantaged (and therefore higher risk, they wouldn't be disadvantaged if they weren't high risk) groups.



This is very important, we demand that they increase home ownership of a population that is high risk of defaulting on a loan, complain when they require a bailout because buying that risk away from those people has a cost, and now complain when they hedge their losses by taking out insurance against it.

Even with the FHFA having them stop, it doesn't mean F&F were 'wrong' it could just be bad publicity that they don't want.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby mike-l » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:25 pm UTC

So Freddie Mac buys a bunch of mortgages at 7%. They have a refinancing risk immediately upon buying.

They sell off the principals and retain the interest. Don't they still have the same risk?


This would seem suspect if they were buying just the floaters from other mortgages, but from what I'm reading, it's the interest on their own that they are holding.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby kiklion » Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:23 pm UTC

Fixed term loans, such as mortgages, are structured such that you are paying off mostly interest the first few years and the principal at the end. The first few payments are almost 100% interest, so if you were to get a refinance you would still have the same principal (almost). By selling the principal but keeping the interest you would be avoiding long term risk. Say person A is highly likely to be able to make payments for the next 5 years of a 30 year loan, but it's 50/50 that he may need to default sometime over 30 years.

by the time he defaults the interest may already have been paid.
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby mike-l » Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:33 pm UTC

So they lower their default risk (which I'm not sure is accurate, as they insure these mortgages, but that's a separate point). That doesn't address my point that, (from my understanding) before making these trades, they stood to lose, say 1 million dollars if everyone refinanced, and after these trades, they stood to lose the same 1 million dollars if everyone refinances.

Also, at no point (until the mortgage is settled) is the 'interest already paid', though you are correct that the portion of your payments servicing interest is very high at the start (around 88% on a 30 year 7% loan) and low at the end (as low as, well, 7% when you make your final payment)
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Re: Freddie Mac betting against struggling homeowners

Postby ElPresidente » Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:11 pm UTC

Nonevent.

They hedged their default risk, because, you know, they've been criticized a little bit for being too vulnerable to default risk. They can't stop making the loans, because that would cause Congress to murder them. So they bought insurance.

FMC and FNM are in a catch-22. They are the only thing keeping the market liquid, now, and they have a mandate, not to mention daily phone calls, telling them to be nice to struggling homeowners and let them slide, refinance, whatever. They also have daily phone calls, also from Congresspersons, demanding to know why they make, and keep making, risky loans. They should probably be tightening standards drastically and causing far more foreclosures. But they won't, because Congress would rather they be insolvent and propping up their constituents.
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