March Of The Newbies Mini - The Mafia Victorious

[Matthias]

Matthias finds skeptical scientist's words ironic. He notes that skep urges the town not to vote unless there is absolute certainty, an ideal which can only be reached if one is a cop who has investigate scum. The irony comes from the fact that Matthias is the cop; he acted on yesterday's suspicion and got lucky.

To whit: skeptical scientist is scum. Looking back on things that he said, Matthias finds even more evidence that he is surprised he missed in his earlier assessment; given his newbie status, perhaps this is forgivable.

vote: skeptical scientist

[skeptical scientist]

Matthias is lying. There are two ways that I know this.

1) We specifically said that the cop should not roleclaim unless there are two confirmed mafia, unless he is unable to persuade the town through less direct means (or it is necessary to make a counterclaim to stop mafia from getting away with a false claim.) This is because, at lylo with 5 players, even if the cop comes out with a guilty hit and manages to get a lynch, he will certainly be nightkilled the following night, so the chances of town winning are only about 1 in 3. On the other hand, if the cop is able to persuade the town to lynch scum without revealing his identity, the chances of winning are much higher.

2) I am, in fact, the cop. As it happens, I investigated Matthias last night, and found scum. I didn't roleclaim immediately for the reasons laid out in the previous paragraph (hoping I could persuade the town without revealing my identity), and also because I thought that the unknown mafioso might claim cop, in which case I would know who both mafia members are (and would hopefully be able to convince the rest of the town). Unfortunately, the person who claimed cop is the same person I already knew to be scum, so I can't provide the town with any further information.

Either way, if I'm not dead at sundown, I'll be dead in the morning.

[skeptical scientist]

Vote: Matthias

[Rufaellie]

greycloud
MasterOfAll
sje46
Matthias 1 (skeptical scientist)
skeptical scientist 1 (Matthias)

3 to lynch.

[sje46]

Well, we have two people claiming to be cop. Well, I guess that means it has to be one of you two has to be mafia. And one of you has to be a cop. Right?
I don't know what to think. Skep has been a lot more sketchy to me than Mathias has been, definitely.
I have to think about this.
FoS Mathias and Skep

[Matthias]

Matthias shakes his head at the skeptical one's statements.

First off, he would like to point out that no one said the cop should refrain from claiming unless s/he had both scum confirmed. __jess made the note that the cop should only claim if they have any scum hits, but not to wait until both. Even if such a suggestion had been made, Matthias would have ignored it. He would like to point out that this is lylo; there is no other day to wait for unless scum are lycnched, and if he'd waited until the day two accusations and analysis started then his claim might not have held the proper weight.

As to the second claim, Matthias would of course expect scum to counterclaim in this situation; when cornered, one has little choice but to make his case as best he can--and if one can trap his accuser, all the better. Skeptical's actions speak for themselves, however.

Matthias's first point: skep was the first to post during day two. And why? 'Tis simple, the robot claims: skep, and his fellow scum, had sent in their night action (finally), so he knew the thread would update soon (finally).

Matthias's second point is simply a repeat of his reason for initial suspicion. Skeptical scientist was the first to randomly vote on day one--a vote later revoked. Given his later analytical posts, Matthias saw a bit of inconsistency--the type of uncertainty that might accompany somebody trying to keep up a false front. It might have been tenuous, but it was the best lead that Matthias had--and, fortunately, it paid off.

Matthias raises a questioning gesture to the town: will you pick Sherlock Holmes, or Professor Moriarti?

[Matthias]

EBWOP

Matthias offers deepest apologies to Professor Moriarty for the misspelling of his name. He may send flowers later.

[skeptical scientist]

First off, he would like to point out that no one said the cop should refrain from claiming unless s/he had both scum confirmed.

First off, I would like to point out that this is completely false:

Again, since there is no doctor (Ruf stated that cop is the only special role), the cop will be at risk if (s)he roleclaims, so I recommend the cop should try to avoid roleclaiming (if the cop can subtly sway opinion without roleclaiming, this is the best) unless 1 scum is already lynched and 2nd scum is found.

Next, I will address your points one by one.

Matthias's first point: skep was the first to post during day two. And why? 'Tis simple, the robot claims: skep, and his fellow scum, had sent in their night action (finally), so he knew the thread would update soon (finally).

The reason, as my post count amply demonstrates, is that I check these forums obsessively, so whenever Rufaellie posted that day 2 started, I would be around shortly thereafter.

Matthias's second point is simply a repeat of his reason for initial suspicion. Skeptical scientist was the first to randomly vote on day one--a vote later revoked.

It seemed like a good way of getting debate going. Day 1 is frequently slow to get started (as I think we pretty well demonstrated) and an early vote can serve the purpose of getting things moving. This was my only intention with the vote, as I already explained.

So here is my question for the town: Why is Matthias making these obviously spurious arguments, if he is who he says he is?

[Matthias]

It would seem that Matthias missed the post about waiting for two scum confirmations. *Shrug* He still stands by his point: lylo means it's not safe to wait. Besides, he would like to point out that one person's suggestion--even the analytical MoA--does not constitute a consensus of strategy. Perhaps if there'd been wider-spread agreement to the idea, he might have held off--but he still believes he made the best call.

As to why he is making "spurious arguments"--it is simple. Skeptical scientist is scum. A simple claim to that effect, however, does not constitute evidence; hence, he is reiterating skep's actions which lead to the investigation in the first place.

Perhaps a better question, he believes, is this: if you were the cop, why would you investigate Matthias in the first place?

[skeptical scientist]

Perhaps a better question, he believes, is this: if you were the cop, why would you investigate Matthias in the first place?

I had the sense you were scum. It wasn't really any one thing that convinced me, but rather a combination of several things.

1) You seemed active enough to post somewhat regularly, but mostly stayed quiet and let __Jess, MasterofAll, and me discuss matters. This struck me as if you were lurking, not because you didn't care that much, but rather because you were trying not to stand out. That's a definite scumtell.

2) You voted for me. Admittedly that probably won't be very convincing to other people, but it did have a role in who I chose to investigate.

3) You voted for Asmodieus (without giving a reason, but presumably for lurking), but were unwilling to vote for sje (who was almost as lurky). This inconsistency struck me as suspicious.

[MasterOfAll]

Wow. A lot has happened in this game. Finally. Too bad about lynching town, but we knew there was a good chance that was going to happen, and at least we have plenty of posts and voting patterns to analyze now.

Before saying anything else, I would like to agree with Skeptic's first comment this day: 1 townie vote for another townie will end the game once the scum check in to bandwagon. So let's tread very lightly here.

So, 2 cop claims have been made, with perfectly contrary claims. I think that it is pretty obvious that these 2 are the only logical choices for lynching today, as I cannot see any possible reason that 2 townies would attempt to mislead us this way, especially in a LYLO situation.

I find it highly suspicious that Skeptical just happened to be the cop and just happened to have investigated Matthias, which allowed him to make the exact opposite claim. Of course, if Skeptic is telling the truth, that means that Matthias was extremely unlucky in his choice for a false copclaim (In not only claiming the cop was scum, but also being the scum that was investigated night 1).

So, to help myself think through this, I want to consider all possibilities:
Case 1: Matthias is cop, Skeptical is scum
Case 2: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is cop
Case 3: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is vanilla
Case 4: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is scum
Case 5: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is scum Not Bloody Likely!
Case 6: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is vanilla Not Bloody Likely!
Case 7: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is cop Not Bloody Likely!
Case 8: Matthias is cop, Skeptical is vanilla Not Bloody Likely!

I am intentionally leaving off a couple of the possible permutations, and even some of the ones I included I do not think are very likely (I have added all possible cases for thoroughness). But I am too tired right now to give this subject the proper thought it deserves, so I will hold off before continuing to analyze what is most likely scenario, and take a close look at everything when I have enough time and brainpower at my disposal (hopefully soon, but may be a couple days).

[Matthias]

Matthias was beginning to wonder where everybody was--though of course greycloud has yet to check in. Anyway.

In regards to skeptical's comments, the next logical step is to explain Matthias's questioned actions.

1) Matthias was as active as he felt like. In regards to the analysis, being a cop does not make one analytical--one should recall that Matthias is a newb among newbs. Given the plethora of analysis already done, and the rather minimal evidence available, there was precious little for him to add. Besides which, even if he'd been staying "under the radar" by intention rather than incidentally, it would have been good for the town: the scum targetted a vanilla rather than the cop. A bit cold, perhaps, but true nonetheless.

2) Matthias felt you were suspicious enough to vote for. Apparently he was right.

3) Matthias questions your comparison of Asmodieus and sje; the latter didn't post much, but not much less than Matthias did. Not enough to warrant a lurk-lynch, especially with an impending roster-change. Asmodieus posted once, followed by four days of silence. That was reason enough, but Matthias will admit he had two other motives:
a) He felt the desire to make a Hammertime joke, although it might not have been the cleverest one.
b) Matthias is not especially fond of Asmodieus. It doesn't qualify as hate, or even especially strong dislike--but something about his personality seems to rub Matthias the wrong way. Poor reason for a vote, which is why Matthias was rather happy to have him lurk as much as he did.

[greycloud]

*Munches popcorn*

Sorry for my absence, I have strange sleeping patterns...

So, two copclaims. In my opinion, I think that it would be extremely unlikely for Skeptic to come out and say that he's a cop straight after scum claimed cop on him. Also, the analysis given earlier mentioning that he shouldn't copclaim doesn't mean that he definitely shouldn't have; he has a point that in lylo we have to use all of our resources and put together a reasonable attempt at staying alive, even if just for one more day.

A second copclaim was pretty much all Skeptic could have done to prevent being chucked away, which makes it all the more suspicious.

Also, insisting on voting for Asmod but not for sje is perfectly exceptable. Sje posted, Asmod did not.

We've also got to remember that if you assume that either skep or matt is a scum, there's one more hiding in the corners. But voting for one of those two is a 50% chance, compared to a 33% chance of stabbing in the dark (or 50% if you are certain you're townie). But this'll probably be a wasted vote, as the non Mat/Skep people haven't had so much evidence around them.

FoS - Skeptic

[MasterOfAll]

Okay, here is my list again:
Case 1: Matthias is cop, Skeptical is scum
Case 2: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is cop
Case 3: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is vanilla
Case 4: Matthias is scum, Skeptical is scum
Case 5: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is scum Not Bloody Likely!
Case 6: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is vanilla Not Bloody Likely!
Case 7: Matthias is vanilla, Skeptical is cop Not Bloody Likely!
Case 8: Matthias is cop, Skeptical is vanilla Not Bloody Likely!

Okay, so first of all, I think it is highly unlikely that Matthias is vanilla, and decided to make the copclaim just to mix things up. So that leaves us with only cases where Matthias is cop or scum.

Secondly, if Matthias is the cop, I can see no reason for him to claim Skeptical is scum without actually knowing it. So that eliminates case 8 above (and of course, it would be impossible for them to both be cops!).

But, now onto the cases where we assume Matthias is scum, and he is trying to get us to lynch a townie so that scum will win.

Case 2 is of course possible, although as previously stated, I find it unlikely that Skeptical just happened to investigate Matthias last night. It is within the realm of possibility that Skeptic is the cop, but investigated someone else last night, but if that were the case, he should have told us who he investigated and what the result was, as Matthias being scum was a given the moment he claimed to be cop. Skeptic seems to be intelligent enough that he would see how pointless it would be to lie about who he investigated. So, if case 2 is correct, then it seems that the only possibility is that Skeptic is being 100% honest about who he investigated.

Case 3 is something to consider. If Skeptic is vanilla, but Matthias claims his investigation showed Skeptic to be scum, Skeptic would automatically assume that Matthias must be scum, and could therefore safely pretend to be the cop, which would remove the risk to the real cop. This would of course mean that the actual cop has not yet revealed him/herself, and I would have to think whether it would be best for that player to speak up now about the real investigation results.

Case 4 is rather amusing to consider. What if they are both scum, and decided last night via PM to perform this whole charade? It seems like this would be a really silly thing to do, since it would significantly reduce their chances of winning, especially considering that the real cop would still be out there to add real investigation results.

So, it really boils down to Case 1 and Case 2, and possibly Case 3. Either Matthias is telling the truth and Skeptic is lying, or Matthias is lying and Skeptic is telling the truth, or Matthias is lying and Skeptic is bending the truth in the best interests of town.

Now that I have convinced myself that those are the only 3 reasonable alternates, I want to spend some more time thinking about which one is most likely to be true. I'm not sure when I will be able to next check in, though.

[MasterOfAll]

A second copclaim was pretty much all Skeptic could have done to prevent being chucked away, which makes it all the more suspicious.

I disagree with this statement. Skeptic could have claimed to be vanilla, and then gone on to point out that this means that Matthias must be scum, and then made various recommendations about what the real cop should do. Etc.

[skeptical scientist]

I think we can safely assume that if we were in case 3 or 4, there would be a real copclaim, due to the gravity of the situation. Since there's not going to be one, we can assume that we're in case 1 or 2 (or rather, we will be able to, once sje and greycloud have checked in and not claimed cop.)

Of course, if Skeptic is telling the truth, that means that Matthias was extremely unlucky in his choice for a false copclaim (In not only claiming the cop was scum, but also being the scum that was investigated night 1).

I would say it means that Matthias was extremely lucky, since someone other than the accused being able to claim cop would have been more convincing (although still not certain, since it could be the other scum). Either way, it does seem to be quite the coincidence that I decided to investigate exactly the person who claimed cop, and he decided to accuse exactly the person who was cop; I can't help that.

[skeptical scientist]

EBWOP: (or rather, we will be able to, once sje and greycloud have checked in and not claimed cop.) They've both already posted and not claimed.

[Matthias]

A second copclaim was pretty much all Skeptic could have done to prevent being chucked away, which makes it all the more suspicious.

I disagree with this statement. Skeptic could have claimed to be vanilla, and then gone on to point out that this means that Matthias must be scum, and then made various recommendations about what the real cop should do. Etc.

Hmm... If Matthias was in skep's situation, he probably would have cop-claimed and given an innocent result on one of the vanillas; in this way, he might have had two allies instead of one. It is fortunate that skeptical did not use this line of thinking.

[greycloud]

A second copclaim was pretty much all Skeptic could have done to prevent being chucked away, which makes it all the more suspicious.

I disagree with this statement. Skeptic could have claimed to be vanilla, and then gone on to point out that this means that Matthias must be scum, and then made various recommendations about what the real cop should do. Etc.

Hmm... If Matthias was in skep's situation, he probably would have cop-claimed and given an innocent result on one of the vanillas; in this way, he might have had two allies instead of one. It is fortunate that skeptical did not use this line of thinking.

If Skeptic had claimed vanilla, then there would have been the majority of interest and suspicion placed on him, so claiming cop and placing the suspicion equally on Matt is a good plan. Now one of them is a cop; I think that if a cop was here then they would have roleclaimed by now, and if they have not then please do. If someone else claims cop then that means night can't get them both, but more importantly the real cop could really help us.

Skeptic being non-scum and choosing that move could be very much in our favour; lowering the chances of voting wrong, and if he's vanilla then he'd be taking a bullet for the real cop come nightfall... but the latter could also be said for Matt.

I'm so confused, and at this stage it's so easy to become manipulated by scum's opinions...

[sje46]

I'm so confused too.
*checks if cop*
*is not cop*
Okay, then. I'm not cop.

Can there really be two cops for a game this small?

[skeptical scientist]

Hmm... If Matthias was in skep's situation, he probably would have cop-claimed and given an innocent result on one of the vanillas; in this way, he might have had two allies instead of one. It is fortunate that skeptical did not use this line of thinking.

Actually, I did use this line of thinking. I was considering pretending I had investigated greycloud in order to make my (true) claim more likely to be believed, but I decided to stick with the truth.

[Matthias]

I was considering pretending I had investigated greycloud in order to make my (true) claim more likely to be believed, but I decided to stick with the truth.

Matthias finds this phrase interesting. He is uncertain whether it is an attempt to get greycloud on his side, an effort to protect fellow scum, or a ploy to put suspicion on a townie. That skep temp-voted for greycloud yesterday could lend credence to either claim.

Though his opinion won't matter much by morning, for the moment Matthias has his eye on greycloud.

[greycloud]

Actually, I'm very glad you pointed this all out.

If not for the whole cop-claim, I'm well aware I would be the finger of suspicion. After all, Jess was picked off after I voted for her. Matt, however, did not follow this through; if the townies were working to lynch me then it would have been obvious to cop-claim against me. People would have believed that you would question someone like me, and would be more likely to believe the answer. I was not claimed against, so if Matt was scum he wasn't being all too consistent.

This also makes me suspect Skeptic more.

Of course, this all rides on that I'm not scum. If I was then... this would be an impressively elaborate hoax. And I don't think it would work all too well, either.

[MasterOfAll]

Well, I just read through the entire game, and pretty much because Matthias made several mentions about finding himself scummy, I have decided to side with Skeptic (sorry that I could not find any better evidence one way or the other).

I also thought about whether the real cop should have stepped forward to clear things up, but realized that this would only be advised if the real cop had any additional information to add.

With that said, I am going to do a conditional copclaim like I did in the Anonymous game: Now, I am not saying that I am the cop, but if do turn up dead, then the townies still alive tomorrow should know that last night I investigated Sje46, and he is town.

And finally, fully aware of the fact that if I am wrong, then scum wins . . .

VOTE: Matthias

[Matthias]

Hmm... Matthias notes that the choice now resides with sje and greycloud. He has a few points to analyze.

1) There are now two basic possibilities. If MoA is town, then the game is already lost--sje or greycloud, whichever is the unaccounted-for scum, will hammer Matthias as soon as they sign back on. If, on the other hand, MoA is the unaccounted-for scum, then the game is still winnable via the two remaining votes falling for skeptical.

2) MoA's semi-cop-claim, and subsequent vouching for sje, deserves mention. The claim itself, Schrodinger-esque as it is, seems to do nothing but muddy the waters--we now have 2.5/5 people claiming cop. Fascinating. As to the claim of sje's innocence, we have two ways of looking at it again.
a) If MoA is scum, then the claim is true--though it is a result of knowing who is on his team, rather than an investigation.
b) If MoA is town, then it doesn't really matter what the truth is--sje or greycloud will hammer Matthias, and the game will be over.

Given these points, Matthias is drawing the following conclusion: either the game is over, or both greycloud and sje are town. He hopes it is the latter.

[sje46]

b) Matthias is not especially fond of Asmodieus. It doesn't qualify as hate, or even especially strong dislike--but something about his personality seems to rub Matthias the wrong way. Poor reason for a vote, which is why Matthias was rather happy to have him lurk as much as he did.

Agreed. Asmodieus rubs me wrong too. HE doesn't seem to be a good person to play a serious game like mafia with.

With that said, I am going to do a conditional copclaim like I did in the Anonymous game: Now, I am not saying that I am the cop, but if do turn up dead, then the townies still alive tomorrow should know that last night I investigated Sje46, and he is town.

I am town! But I am so confused. I really don't know if there could be two cops in one game. Obviously either matthias or skep are a cop. So can there be two? It seems a bit much. And, like someone said, you could be mafia guessing correctly that I am town and thus trying to gain my confidence. But I find it hard to believe there are two cops. OF course it is possible that skep is claiming but is still townie, but I find that unlikely, really.

Well, I just read through the entire game, and pretty much because Matthias made several mentions about finding himself scummy, I have decided to side with Skeptic (sorry that I could not find any better evidence one way or the other).

Umm. Matthias admitting to scummy behavior doesn't make him scummy. That is precisely the type of thing I would do. Where precisely has he said this anyway? IF this is your only evidence . . .bleh.

I thought it over, and I think that skep has been a lot more suspicious than MAtthias has ever been. MAtthias hasn't done anything weird exept claim cop, whichhe very well could be. Skep voted early, just to get things going, then claimed cop right after Matthias did. And MoA, who sided with skep, claimed cop as well, and that only seems to muddy the waters. I'm starting to think MoA and Skep are teammates. Scum.
Okay.
I hope I don't regret this.
Vote: Skep

[Rufaellie]

greycloud
MasterOfAll
sje46
Matthias 2 (skeptical scientist, MasterOfAll)
skeptical scientist 2 (Matthias, sje46)

[skeptical scientist]

Greycloud, it's all up to you. I am fairly confident that you are a townie; if not, the game is already lost. So I'm going to address this post mainly to you.

You know that the other true vanilla townie is voting for one of us, and the second mafioso is voting for the other of us. You can probably guess that the mafioso is voting for scum (this is likely but not certain), so if you can't decide which of me or Matthias you think is more likely to be scum, you might be able to get somewhere by considering which of sje and MasterOfAll you believe to be scum.

[greycloud]

All... down... to me? Oh my, this isn't good.

Well, I think it's pretty obvious from my indecision that I am townie. If not I'd be giving a 'Mwahahaha' speech by now. So basically, I have to choose between Mattis and Sje or Skeptic and MoA...

I'd just like to say - eep. I'll prepare my own way of death if this all goes wrong. *Prepares the gun*

Vote: Skep

I think it was mostly the instant reply after night actions, and the chance of claiming cop straight after another copclaim that got me. Sorry if I'm wrong, guys!

[skeptical scientist]

That looks like a lynch, and game. Good game everyone, I'm off to read the spoilers.

[MasterOfAll]

NOOOOOO!

I'm town, and based on Skep's comment that the game is over, he must be town, too!

Good game, SCUM!

[greycloud]

*cries and dies*

[sje46]

I'm not scum!

The game isn't over yet. Don't we have night? Mr. Mod?

[MasterOfAll]

Okay, I am currently being burnt by some cheese.

[Rufaellie]

Skeptical Scientist has been lynched.

During the night the townies all went to bed anticipating the morning. As before a death occured in the middle of the night. But this time when the morning came there was no discussion of the mafia, simply, two supposed townies stringing up and lynching the last true townie despite fevered protestations. The last two members of the town of March, Matthias and sje46, smiled triumphantly. The mafia had emerged victorius.

Game Over. The Scum Win.

[Rufaellie]

Fulfilling a Mod promise:

1. A/S/L = 19/UNK/Los Angeles
2. Occupation or Major = Writer
3. Favorite food = Lobster.
4. Favorite scent = Natural scents like flowers, grass, the outdoors.
5. New year's resolution(s) = Write more, read more to learn about life and myself.
6. Thing you hate that everyone else loves = Making fun of/getting riled up about stupidity on the internet.
7. Favorite music genre = Classic Rock.
8. Favorite xkcd comic = A Bunch Of Rocks
9. What is your (other) favourite website? = http://theiwg.ning.com, where all of my writing goes.
10.Mafia role = Mod.
10. Ideal holiday = The Freewinds.

[sje46]

Fulfilling a Mod promise:

1. A/S/L = 19/UNK/Los Angeles
2. Occupation or Major = Writer
3. Favorite food = Lobster.
4. Favorite scent = Natural scents like flowers, grass, the outdoors.
5. New year's resolution(s) = Write more, read more to learn about life and myself.
6. Thing you hate that everyone else loves = Making fun of/getting riled up about stupidity on the internet.
7. Favorite music genre = Classic Rock.
8. Favorite xkcd comic = A Bunch Of Rocks
9. What is your (other) favourite website? = http://theiwg.ning.com, where all of my writing goes.
10.Mafia role = Mod.
10. Ideal holiday = The Freewinds.

We;re very similar people, Ruf!

[Rufaellie]

Cool!

Hey sje46 and Matthias, can you send me a copy of all your Night PMs? I'm writing the story of the game and could really use them for the dialogue at night. Kthxbai!

[sje46]

1. A/S/L = 19/UNK/Los Angeles--I'm 19 too
2. Occupation or Major = Writer--I OOVE writing. That used to be my biggest hobby in high school. I wrote novels. Terrible novels, but still.
3. Favorite food = Lobster.--Love it
4. Favorite scent = Natural scents like flowers, grass, the outdoors.--I love thes ethings too. I like the smell of rain , actually.
5. New year's resolution(s) = Write more, read more to learn about life and myself.--same
6. Thing you hate that everyone else loves = Making fun of/getting riled up about stupidity on the internet.--I do this, actually. I wish I didn't.
7. Favorite music genre = Classic Rock.--same
8. Favorite xkcd comic = A Bunch Of Rocks--I change whatever it was I said to this one
9. What is your (other) favourite website? = http://theiwg.ning.com, where all of my writing goes.--I have to check this site out
10.Mafia role = Mod.
10. Ideal holiday = The Freewinds.


I'll send the PMs over, but be prepared to be bored.

[Rufaellie]

Thanks! Definitely rain too!