The New Newbie Game - Game Over - Scum Win

[ThinkSweet]

Yeah, sorry I've had a couple exams the last couple days, and a work conference this weekend. I promise after that I'll do a big analysis post, but for now I'll just say I still believe Fin's Miller Claim, so obviously I think there's a two in three chance of all of the rest of you being scum. Which is kinda scary

[MasterOfAll]

Okay, that just leaves Rhyme to hear from. I just sent her a PM to find out if she is still around.

I guess you are all just busy at the moment, but it is your game, so we will just have to let the pace slow down a bit.

[Rhyme]

Sorry about that, and I have now returned also.

It would seem that a cop claim would be beneficial at this point, as I trust Fin's claim (and really hope we're not wrong to do so, considering that most of us would appear to agree.) Does everyone else think a claim by whoever the cop is would be in our best interest? Fin appears to agree (a bit hastily, I'll note) Summit is less sure but thinks so, Mieulium and Flying_Cookie haven't given their thoughts on the matter, and Think appears to trust Fin, which probably translates to a yes, but possibly not.

After that, perhaps we can all try for rereads, and figuring out of the lynch? If we all agree to trust Fin, that would give a random lynch 50% chance to hit scum. Better odds than we'd get usually, but certainly a bad idea. The Cop claim might well help, especially considering that we are assuming the settup is B, though this once again hinges on trusting Fin's claim.

[Rhyme]

EBWOP: Oh, and the amount of the game that relies on believing a Miller claim at this point is a little depressing. Cop claim: Almost certainly worth it if we believe the claim (both of cop and miller), possibly not if we don't, Setup: Certain if we trust Fin's claim, if not certain, we only know that there are two townies for certain, in which case it could be all but H, as far as I can tell. (If we assume there isn't a jester, as no one seems to be trying to get lynched, it could be A, B, C, E, or F, with C containing a paranoid cop, and leaving us with 1-2 townies left.) Anywho, it's bugging me, but unless we think it's really worth murdering Fin over this, which I don't, it probably isn't worth much in the way of discussion,

[Summit.42]

I'm all for the cop claim then reread plan. So I'll wait atleast a bit longer hoping for a claim from the cop. (Just to be clear, I would like for the cop to claim, no matter the results of the investigations, even if no result)

I do not like either how much we are clinging to Fin's claim. But I don't think that makes him a good target for lynching. I still think it would be risky for the mafia to make that claim on day one.

[MasterOfAll]

Okay, as Summit.42 is the only player to have a single post this month, everyone who is still alive is now required to make at least 1 post this weekend (or risk modkill) and please include:
1. Why you have been unable to post lately.
2. When you expect to again participate in this game. (And I am really hoping for 5 responses of 'immediately')
3. How awesome you think bacon is.

Thanks.

5 players left, 3 votes needed for lynch, LYLO (probably)

[Fin Archangel]

Oh, Jesus. My internet died temporarily for some reason.

1) See above.
2) Immediately.
3) Bacon is awesome. On a scale of 1-10, it scores a 84(0n.

[Rhyme]

0.0 Fear the wrath of Mod.

1) Been ill for a while, and unable to do much more than sleep. Recently got better, still suffering from a few lasting symptoms, catching up on everything has been time-consuming, and real life comes first.
2) I should be able to participate by afternoon Monday, Tuesday at the latest.
3) Is there a point to this question? (Fairly awesome.)

[MasterOfAll]

3) Is there a point to this question? (Fairly awesome.)

Yes, the point is that 2 questions just didn't seem like enough. 3 is a much more pleasing grouping. This works with many things that you list or group. There have probably been research studies performed on why three is so awesome, but I am too lazy to search for them to be able to provide links.

Also, it's bacon! (I actually don't eat a lot of bacon, but it is amazing, isn't it?)

[mieulium]

1. Exams, and plus it was down the list on egosearch, so I thought there was no activity (from start of day)
2. uhhh I cant really evaluate anything much, till thursday night? (Your thursday morning)
3. *drools like zombie* (I haven't taken my lunch, dammit!)


About the game:

D: About the miller thing. It makes sense that Fin would claim first.

In a set-up with miller: 86% chance that he would be, because if not, there would be another miller claim. Unless there is another miller, please stand up!

However, there is a 25% chance that we would land on the miller set up. Thus, P(A|B), would be .25x.86= .215

Hmm. Stats exam in 27 hours. D:

[ThinkSweet]

1. Exams, my birthday, extended breakup
2. Now (Exams finally over)
3. Not at all. (Sorry, but I'm a vegetarian )

[Summit.42]

1: I haven't really been as much unable to post, as unwilling to make an effort rereading and analyzing everything when it seemed the game might die any moment, and I also was hoping for a cop claim before making that reread, as it probarbly would make the reread more efficient as I would only have one or two people to focus on most likely.
2: Now that it seems people are able to participate again, and the cop claim does not seem to be coming, I'm going to start my reread once I have posted this.
3: Bacon is awsome, indeed. (although for me not quite awsome enough to cause this.)

[Summit.42]

Okay, after a quick reread, the person I got most suspicious of was ThinkSweet. And I do admit my reason for being so is very vague. But it seemed to me that she was, along with Fin, the only persons really seeming to want a lynch sooner rather than later. As said, this is all vague, and that wanting a lynch after a long day one is not really suspicious in it self, but on the other hand I find it hard to see mafia trying to delay the lynch of a townie during the whole of day one. And to me it seemed this is what Rhyme and Mieulium was doing to some extent.

I'm also getting less certain we should trust Fin. But I really do not want to lynch him today either. As said, I think the claim makes most sense if he is indeed the miller, but on the other hand he is the person I find the most suspicious if I ignore the claim. It could be some kind of a gambit, I admit that, but all in all, I would be more happy going after someone else today.

So for now FOS: ThinkSweet

I would also remind everyone to be VERY careful about voting today. If any of us town members vote for another townie, the scum could throw in two quick votes winning the game for them. So I say lets stay away from those votes untill we are sure who we want to lynch.

[MasterOfAll]

Alright, thank you all for responding. Please make an effort to keep this game alive. Otherwise I will take away your bacon (or vegetarian equivalent, perhaps chocolate?).

[Fin Archangel]

Internet problems not fixed. Will not participate very actively for at least several days. Replacement preferred, modkill or waiting acceptable.

[MasterOfAll]

Replacement preferred leads to replacement granted

Please welcome AngrySquirrel to the game, taking over the role previously held by Fin Archangel.

[Rhyme]

Sorry, very little time for a good post right now.

Taking another look at the numbers required for Fin to pull some sort of gambit, it seems slightly more plausible, though I would really rather not bet on it at this stage of the game. Replacement? Well, welcome to AngrySquirrel, and thank you much for signing up as a replacement. If we'd gotten a modkill at this stage, and it turned out Fin was telling the truth... though that Fin called a modkill acceptable worries me. Wouldn't we lose if the numbers of town and mafia were equal?

Oh, and sorry for the delay. I've been avoiding claiming for a while because not everyone has voiced their approval, and while it seems like the best choice to me, I've been known to make some pretty serious mistakes in games before (advocating NL when we had seven people left, three scum remaining, thinking there were actually eight where it would be a good idea, got me lynched, town lost) and didn't want to make the wrong choice when it was possible that all but the most active of the people wanting a claim were mafia. I am cop, and Summit is townie. Sorry for the suspicion, but you've been active, helpful, and made good points, had reasonable suspicions, etc. I didn't want scum leading the town, but it turns out not, and now I suspect ThinkSweet more than ever. Sorry, no time left, probably nothing until tomorrow, apologies for hastiness.

[Rhyme]

EBWOP: Oh, and another reason I didn't want to claim when it was mostly Summit advocating doing so, considering that I'm becoming less and less sure of Fin's miller claim, was that there is the possibility that we are in setup A, which has a godfather. Not particularly likely, but worth thinking about, and worth waiting until I was more certain that a claim really was the best choice.

[Summit.42]

Thanks Rhyme! I can understand why you waited claiming, and I can also understand why you investigated me. And no need to be sorry for suspecting me. It's nothing but wise to suspect everyone.

Anyway, I am inclined to believe your claim, seeing as you are the only player who have never really given me any scum vibes, and also have posted most analysis etc, wich makes me trust you. I will say this, if you turn out to be scum, you have made a stunning performance.

That said, I am severely tempted to vote for ThinkSweet right now, and at the moment I don't really see what could stop me from doing so soon. But since one vote on the wrong person could lose twenty dollars and my self respect for us I will wait and see what happens. Unless something makes me change my mind I will probarbly vote tomorrow (IRL).

[ThinkSweet]

Sigh. I really didn't want to have to do this, because it pretty much guarantees my death. Also I realise in light of the above posts this is going to look quite suspiscious but the Scum have backed me into a corner, so here goes.

I know Rhyme is Scum because she is not the Cop, I am. I also know Summit is Scum, for two reasons, one because Rhyme claimed he is town, and two because I investigated him last night. Now I realise this is my word against someone elses, so maybe it will help if I explain why found Summit so suspicious?

1. Process of elimination. I believed Fin's Miller claim (for reasons I've already posted), and Mieulium never did anything but act like town, especially posting her notes. I'm not going to explain to you the exact process I used, cos I'll probly want to use it in other games but by the time night rolled around, I had the most probable Mafia pairings down to Summit and Rhyme or Summit and Flying Cookie.

2.

The statement is also making me a bit suspicious of you with the combination of "we" and "the town" both being in your post (sorry, it's day one, so I'm pretty much grasping at straws here, not to mention being suspicious of everyone talking. No FoS, just a note).

First of all, sorry for being inconsistant with the use of the phrases "the town" and "us"/"we" in my first post. I know it might seem slightly scummy, but it's something I always do when having multiple phrases that referes to the same thing, or people etc. I know it would be better to be consitent, but bad habits are hard to change, sadly.

Apologising for some technical grammar making him seem "slightly scummy" seemed to me like he was paranoid about looking like scum. I hadn't even thought it looked scummy and the fact that he himself seemed to think it did just seemed a bit off to me.

3.

However, there is a claim I would like to happen today. If there is a miller present in the game, I think it would benefit us for him/her to claim sooner rather than later. To be honest I can see several advantages with it. Most notably we would not want to end up in a situation where we have a credible cop saying someone is scum, and they are able to claim miller. If they are the miller, it might lead to a mafia win, due to us lynching them anyway instead of the mafia, and if they are in fact mafia, it might (althoug doubtfully) be enough to let the scum get away. There are some other factors too for both sides, but I think all in any millers present should claim asap.

Also, I think we should agree, that should the miller choose not to claim, we should treat anyone claiming miller after an investigation as confirmed scum.

He asked the Miller to claim with some rather selective reasoning. Basically he encouraged a townie to make themselves seem suspicious by claiming on the first day and then said anyone who claimed after that would be scum. This gives a scum someone suspicious to point at if people get suspicious of them. Also, the revelation that we have a Miller would confirm for two goons that we are in a set up without a doctor. He basically admits it wasn't for the good of the town later.

I believe the only person who would have profited from claiming miller there would be the miller... He could be scum, but he will have to get really lucky and play very well to gain something for the claim at all. All in all I don't think the mafia would risk it.

I simply don't see the mafia taking such a risk. Also, claiming miller does increase your chances of being lynched, due to the WIFOM and general muddy waters you can create.

4. The way he tried so very very hard to fly under the radar yesterday, he obviously thinks being passive is a good way to disguise being mafia.

That said, when I think about it joe sticks his head out a bit too much to seem to be mafia. But it's hard to tell.

The only thing keeping me from voting joe right now is that he has stuck his head out a lot more than any scum would need to.

And as said I do think scum would stay more in the background. Especially when they are inexperienced players.

5. Expressed suspicion of everyone except Rhyme (and Fin actually) during the course of Day 1.

Phew that's long! hope it helps

[ThinkSweet]

EBWOP: oh yeah, and
Vote: Summit

[ameretrifle]

Votecount!

1 Summit.42 (ThinkSweet)

3 to lynch.

[AngrySquirrel]

I'll post something as soon as I get myself updated on what's happening.

[mieulium]

Uh... @ ThinkSweet : If you think rhyme is scum, then why did you vote for Summit???? I am rather confused.

[ThinkSweet]

Um I wrote a whole post on it ... I KNOW Summit is Scum for 100% sure. I also know Rhyme is because she false claimed scum, but I voted Summit cos he's the one I found suspicious in the first place and got a Scum result on last night. If people would rather get rid of Rhyme first, I'll change my vote, but it doesn't really matter as long as it's one of them.

[ThinkSweet]

EBWOP *know Rhyme is scum because she false claimed cop*

[AngrySquirrel]

Ok, this seems quite clear-cut. Since the deaths eliminated setup H, we are definitely in setup B.

This means we are currently 1 vanilla town, me (miller), a 1 cop on town-side. On scum side there are 2 goons.

No matter what result the cop got from his/her/its investigation it would give us the scum, as long as he/she/it didn't investigate me that is (which would be a very stupid move). If the cop got vanilla town then the other two would be scum and if he didn't then the case is also quite simple.

That was the obvious part.

Then we move on to who we trust.
Both ThinkSweet and Rhyme have claimed cop. ThinkSweet backs herself up with some decent reasoning while Rhyme is more vague.

There are a few ways to approach this. Either try figuring out who is the most convincing cop of ThinkSweet and Rhyme. Try to figure out who is the most convincing townie of Mielium and summit42. Or we could try to figure out what the most likely pairing of ThinkSweet + Mielium or Rhyme + summit42 is.

Reading through I'm a still a bit confused and not quite used to who is who. So, I'll wait a little bit before deciding who I believe the most here until I've had some time to think about it and can actually remember who has said what.

[AngrySquirrel]

OK, first my analysis:
Rhyme:

Spoiler:

Day 1:
Points out that summit42 uses "we" and "town" phrases. <- seems a bit overreactive
Points out that fin's (mine) miller claim will be seen as wifomy and might lead to my lynch, again with the us/town thing.
Ultimately finds the miller claim believable as long as nothing goes against the setups and there are no counterclaims.
Justifies miller claim and explains why it's believable.
Is suspicious of joe.cool for not believing the miller claim.
Suggest that either joe or fin could be jester.
Again defends the miller claim, explaining why it's logical. And seems sure that I am either miller or jester.
Notes being suspicious of ThinkSweet.
Don't believe joe + fin is a likely mafia combo.
Clarifies suspicion of ThinkSweet
Makes a cop-claim. Says she's investigated summit42. Also notes that she's getting less and less sure about Fin's miller claim.

Day 2:
Notes that a cop-claim would be most beneficial. Follows up on summit's idea on that the remaining players should decide if they trust Fin(me) or not.
Makes another post that a cop-claim is definitely worth it. (Still seems to think flying cookie is alive though). Marks a 50% chance of hitting scum if cop claims.
Does not follow her cop-claim up with a vote.

Comment: Day 1 I was quite inclined to put Rhyme up as town. However this cop claiming business seems right. Why is she hesitating so much with claiming cop? Why does she feel she needs others to agree that claiming is a good thing? And why so unsure about the miller claim? Also, the biggest question I am asking about the cop-claim is why investigate summit42? You were suspicious of ThinkSweet on day 1 so why not investigate the person you expressed suspicion about?

Mieulium:

Spoiler:

Expresses confusion over miller claim. Suggest possible jester.
Notes that the miller claim is distracting.
Again brings out the possibility that Fin's a jester
Says she's getting more convinced that joe.cool is jester, but still unwilling to commit to anything.
Posts her analysis. Notes that Summit42 has a tendency to group with Fin (me)
Notes that joe seems to be acting too brutish for town.

Day 2:
Marks that the miller claim is sensible

Comment: I don't really have much to say here. Which is something I don't like. If it wasn't for it being lylo this would be where my vote would go. Overall Mieulium has one really useful posts and lots of shorter more general posts and an unwillingness to commit any suspicion towards anyone.

ThinkSweet:

Spoiler:

Day 1
Suggest to actually discuss the vote that has been put out
Reacts to Fin (me) justifying a vote on joe with "lurking" when it's only been a day.
Believes the miller claim. Bases this on noticing the breadcrumbs fin left earlier.
Votes for joe.cool due to him being the most suspicious so far.
Explains her vote for joe.cool further, seems reasonable.
Feels joe is incoherent and probably most suspicious although not convinced he is scum. Notes that summit makes a good point about mielium making short posts.
Clarifies that she is voting for joe because she finds him suspicious. Apologizes for impatience.

Day 2:
Claims cop after Rhyme. Claims to have investigated summit42 and found scum.
Also posts reasoning to back up her investigation.

Comment: If I were ThinkSweet and a mobster, Rhyme would be dead after day 1. This speaks in her favor. Her cop-claim also seems more well thought out than Rhyme's. Although she has waited with it much too long. (Both our cop claims is way too late to really be convincing, but I'll let that slide in this game.) At day 1 she seems aggressive enough to be pro-town and not very afraid to put out her neck with votes.

Summit42:

Spoiler:

Day 1
Starts off with setup-speculation.
Calls for miller-claim.
Also admits to be inconsistent with use of "we" and "town" <-again this feels a bit over-reactive
Believes miller claim because he thinks scum wouldn't chance putting out their neck like that.
Again makes note that he'll believe the miller claim until there's a reason not to.
Puts more suspicion on joe.cool, asks questions but is hesitant about voting.
Explains to joe.cool why he thinks the miller claim is legit. But also points out that he don't think joe.cool is scum.
Foses mielium for making short posts (very understandable at this point).
Notes that he trusts the miller claim. Says that he don't think joe is scum.
Also notes more trust in mielium after his analysis.
Trusts Rhyme more than average due to her posting more useful stuff than most others.
Notes that he'd prefer to lynch either flying cookie or thinksweet on day one due to process of elimination.

Day 2:
First to note that we're in setup B.
Notes that the remaining players should decide as a group whether they trust Fin(me) or not.
Supports the "Cop claim + reread"-idea put forth by Rhyme
Puts FoS on ThinkSweet. Also says he's trusting the miller claim less and less, but still thinks it makes sense.
Reminds people to be careful about voting.
Is inclined to believe Rhyme's cop claim, but still hesitates with voting.

Comment: Seems to follow Rhyme's lead a lot. Especially on day 2. I would probably too if she was confirming me as a townie so it's understandable. But it still seems a bit off. Bot summit and Rhyme are pulling the miller claim into doubt after being quite sure it was trustworthy on day 1. This also smells a bit.

Conclusion:
If it was still Day 1 and not lylo, my vote would be put on mieulium, mostly due to the others being very vocal.
But it is day 2 and it is lylo. ThinkSweet's cop-claim seems more legit than Rhyme's, and I'm also more inclined to believe she is pro-town than Rhyme.

So following the god ol' strategy of following the cop:
Vote: Summit.42

[Rhyme]

Sorry for that, I have again returned.


"Both ThinkSweet and Rhyme have claimed cop. ThinkSweet backs herself up with some decent reasoning while Rhyme is more vague."
Sorry, thought I mentioned it in my post: I got home and had ten, fifteen minutes to write it, and composed the EBWOP on my phone later, something I hate doing. There wasn't exactly time to write out all of my clear reasons.

"Both summit and Rhyme are pulling the miller claim into doubt after being quite sure it was trustworthy on day 1. This also smells a bit."
I don't know Summit's reasoning, but for me it was looking at the probability of us finding something that contested the existence of Fin as a miller. At first, we all thought that this would be a) a counter-claim, b) a paranoid or naive cop, c)a godfather and more than one townie, which put the odds low enough that I didn't think scum would go for them. Today though, we're at lylo, and even if that makes sense, I didn't see it coming on day two. This means that the only contesting fact would be a counter-claim, something that is a lot less likely based on the setups. Besides, I noticed myself putting Fin completely off the suspicion list, and when I end up thinking "well I'd not trust Fin except that he claimed miller," kind of noticed that something was a bit off.

And no, I'm not going to vote after a cop claim, when it's two in three of hitting scum, as much as I might suspect ThinkSweet.

Also, Think: Is it really only Scum who claim cop when they don't trust someone? No, I'm not saying I am not the cop, and still think you are scum, but would be open to the possibility, rather than assuming pro-town players would never do such a thing.

*Sigh* And I thought I was doing so well. This is why we don't start newbie games with experienced players.

Votecount!

1 Summit.42 (ThinkSweet)

3 to lynch.

Vote: Summit.42

Vote: Summit.42

I do believe that's a lynch?

[MasterOfAll]

First of all, Rhyme, you managed to quote me saying something actually written by ameretrifle! Mods are real people, with real feelings, and not some sort of bot here just to count votes and such, *sniff* . . .

Secondly, GAME OVER - SCUM WIN!

Info dump on roles coming shortly. Feel free to discuss what you did well / didn't do well / wish would have been different / etc.

[MasterOfAll]

Here is role info, taken from the PM I sent to other mods . . .

Spoiler:

So, I had Random.org pick a number between 1 and 8, it gave me 2, I then had it randomize the appropriate list of 7 roles, and matching it up with player list gives:
1. joe.cool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Town
2. Fin Archangel/AngrySquirrel . . . . Miller
3. Rhyme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scum
4. Flying_Cookie . . . . . . . . . . .Town
5. Mieulium . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Scum
6. ThinkSweet . . . . . . . . . . . .Cop
7. Amy (Sungura) Summit.42 . . . . Town

I hope you all had fun, and look forward to seeing you in future games here.

Special thanks to my co-mods for all the hard work they put into this game (and if they really like you, they just might still provide some end of game flavor, but I wouldn't hold my breath).

[ThinkSweet]

Dammit Rhyme!!!

Sorry everyone. I actually investigated Flying Cookie last night, but after Rhyme False Claimed Cop, I thought I'd just pretend I'd investigated the person I found most suspicious. Probly should have voted for the person who actually false-claimed, huh? Oh well, for my first proper game ever, it was pretty fun

[Rhyme]

Oh, sorry about that MoA and AMT. 'Twas not intentional (some of the user avatars weren't showing up, both of yours included, I was in a hurry, saw the bold text votecount, and came to the pseudo-logical yet horribly mistaken conclusion), and I am sorry if I hurt either of your feelings. Actually, I hope I didn't upset AS either- The comment on my previous post was not to be taken seriously. (Yeah, from the arguments and accusations I've seen in previous games, I doubt any of you are scarred for life.)

And, today, I'm wishing I had played a bit differently near the end. Seems like it would have been possible to turn Summit and Mieu against ThinkSweet, instead of Speedlynching, and it would have been more elegant. (Might have had to if Think had steered the lynch wagon towards me.)

Confused about something though- Why did our cop claim that Summit was scum? Was she actually paranoid, or just making it up, or mistaken about an investigation result?
Ninja'd: Ah. And yes, I enjoyed the game immensely, though the feeling of being constantly hunted was somewhat unsettling, and false-claiming cop was worrying. If it was actually Summit as cop, laying a trap for scum, I'dve been toast.

[ameretrifle]

No worries, I've been having that avatar problem all week. And as for more specific avatar confusion, well, that happens to be how I got involved in this game in the first place, so just consider yourself an agent of karma. ;D

Falseclaiming cop results has been done by town with good results. More usually it's a complete and utter train wreck, but it has been done with good results. But, as a rule, it's better to go for the falseclaimer first. Though there have been townies who falseclaimed cop, usually they're not crazy enough to do it at LYLO... Which is why attacking the falseclaimers is standard mafia policy. I think we now understand why, which is what newbie games are all about.

Great game, everyone! And good work, mafia, very well played.

[mieulium]

Phew, I thought Thinksweet was going to turn everyone against Rhyme.

And am I so scummish? I should be rather careful.... VERY.