xkcd

by **existential_elevator** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 3:31 pm UTC

True. But really, before I vote, I want to hear more discussion from people who might be town. And, uh, to guess the item of the day.

by **existential_elevator** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 3:51 pm UTC

Wait, I have the item figured out. For lo, it belongeth to TMT.

That might in fact be completely useless.

by **mpolo** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:54 pm UTC

There are also masons running around (since CF was the head of them), presumably. We've got a really complicated playing field. I'm guessing that VZ is the serial killer / vig (mostly because he's been keeping quiet recently).

Everyone seems completely convinced by the dead mafia thing, and I admit that the evidence can very neatly be read that way. I just don't want to stake the whole game on a meta argument. It's one thing to do so for a single lynch when we weren't at LyLo, but now we have to be really sure. Is there some other possible connection. Actually, might dedalus have given us a Mafia with no "flavor" connection at all or something obscure, like wrote songs with the word "Turk" in them? (I haven't checked whether that one is true, except for Mozart -- it's totally off the top of my head.) I'm kind of crippled with this kind of thing because I truly don't know any of the artists. I don't even know my own artist. And I never have time for a Wikipedia marathon.

by **existential_elevator** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 6:17 pm UTC

Really? VZ has been quiet lately? Because last page he had 5 posts compared to your 3. Perhaps you wanted to start pinning blame on someone who really has been quiet lately, like AMT or Brook?

Honestly, right now both VZ and AMT are firmly in my "town" list. Dromtry and TMT are in my not-town list. The rest of y'all are up for grabs. Though your post there, mpolo, it makes me uncomfortable.

by **Rodan** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 6:55 pm UTC

Wait a second, we're forgetting survivors. A lot of the people who claimed a whole role claimed independant/survivor. As such, I would imagine that if it came down to, for example, 1 townie, 1 survivor, and 1 mafia, the game would end.
I posit that an independent survivor acts as a null, and if an anti-town faction equals the number of town, then the game ends, regardless of the number of survivors.

Does that sort of make sense? That would mean that our guesses about the remaining alignment make-up would be a lot more favourable, and the dead mafia theory could still stand.
Anyway, I'd guess right now that I am one of three townies, and the mafia are TMT and Brook, with the remainder being survivors/wacky independents as claimed, with perhaps a cult in there too.

by **Dromtry** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 8:43 pm UTC

That's a very good point I never even thought of, Rodan. That would actually be much more positive for us.

e_e, Why am I in your not-town list? While you obviously haven't voted me or really pushed forward recently, I am somewhat curious.

For the record, my current impressions are Town: Me, e_e, AMT; Not-town: TMT, bxm; Scummy: Rodan; and I'm undecided on everyone else, so VZ and mpolo.

I remember AMT seemed pretty town at at least one point, and e_e's game resurrection was rather townie, I doubt an anti-town player would have put that much effort into it.

by **mpolo** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 8:57 pm UTC

existential_elevator wrote:Really? VZ has been quiet lately? Because last page he had 5 posts compared to your 3. Perhaps you wanted to start pinning blame on someone who really has been quiet lately, like AMT or Brook?

That must have been a faulty memory... He's one of two who hasn't claimed though, right? I think I extrapolated from there... Anyway, I'm off to bed and will be back tomorrow.

by **Dromtry** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 9:05 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:
existential_elevator wrote:Really? VZ has been quiet lately? Because last page he had 5 posts compared to your 3. Perhaps you wanted to start pinning blame on someone who really has been quiet lately, like AMT or Brook?

That must have been a faulty memory... He's one of two who hasn't claimed though, right? I think I extrapolated from there... Anyway, I'm off to bed and will be back tomorrow.

He was in the last two who hadn't claimed, but he did in the end.

by **VectorZero** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:14 am UTC

I specifically delayed claiming to see who would come forward with their rolename and also to see if someone would falseclaim my role.

I'm not sure about the mechanics speculation tossed around. In particular, I disagree with the argument to target the SK on the grounds that s/he will kill town tonight. AFAIK, that would result in them losing; usually they need to be the last one standing and to do so need to ensure the mafia don't gain a majority.

As far as cult goes, if there is one left I'd treat them as a SK without a kill. Two left would be of concern but unlikely.

by **VectorZero** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:20 am UTC

Oh, also: Rodan, I completely disagree with your summary of the endgame (one town one survivor one mafia = town loss). If that's the situation at the start of the day then town and Indy can vote against mafia for a win.

The point is that, in a vanilla, once mafia have a majority of votes, they control the daykill and the nightkill, and thus the outcome is inevitable. The addition of other kills makes things more complicated but doesn't take away from the fact that mafia still need a majority to win, town doesn't lose until they're either eliminated or scum gain a majority, and while an SK is around the game continues.

by **ameretrifle** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 1:42 am UTC

The phrase used was "definite LYLO", as I recall. Which I am inclined to take seriously. As to why that is... that's harder to figure out. I don't see how there could be more than two mafia left, and then we have an SK/Vig, and... actually, I think I'm a bit more inclined to believe TMT now. Him being independent/killer role but not our usual Sk/Vig person might make the numbers work out better. And I can believe the whole "angry at a genre" thing-- it was part of my role too. Hmm.

Actually, I think we can assume there is at least one cult member out there, and if their win condition is independent/survivor now, that might make more sense of things too. If it's still majority then they're probably screwed. Not sure what that would do to the numbers, though.

Annoyingly, it's my last week of class coming up (meaning all the final projects are due), and I'm not sure there's a single player I don't find vaguely suspicious for some reason or another. Brook's silence since being, presumably, outed is highly worrying; mpolo and Rodan have made some odd comments recently; I've been just a little bit worried about e_e's cop ability for some time now; TMT is obviously suspicious, and also a bit AWOL; I think Dromtry was nearly lynched at some point; and... actually I might be okay with VZ. And I don't think I'd seriously think about voting e_e unless something fairly major happened. And at the moment I'm not finding anything really suspicious about Dromtry, though I may have forgotten something from a previous day. So that's something to go on, I guess.

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:11 am UTC

Sorry. Okay, I am Freddie Mercury. I suppose I need to explain my actions regarding dead mafia.

I supported it several times partially because all evidence publicly pointed towards it while I knew it to be false. I was attempting to spot people who bit it too easily, and also others who defended it too vigorously.

I had a 1 shot cop I used on cf the night after he got the cult leader lynched because I wasn't entirely sure he was being truthful and was going to claim with the result the next day if he didn't turn out to be right (with the result, which obviously was town).

I had a 1 shot doctor I used N1 on cf.

I have a 1 shot nk I do not plan on using (especially now at lylo).

I had a 1 shot un-nkable I had to choose to use, I used last night.

The reasoning for this is because I am so awesome and I am loved by so many different people.

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:14 am UTC

Now how much of this is provable?

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:58 am UTC

Dromtry wrote:Now how much of this is provable?

Cop me and see? But then you will say I am a godfather. I could use my kill tonight, but I'm afraid if I shoot wrong its game over.

So I suppose not much. Is there anything you particularly doubt?

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 4:06 am UTC

Brooklynxman wrote:FOS: Rodan

The dead musician theory is a near certainty. Attempting to derail this theory at lylo and not earlier is extremely suspicious to me. I had my doubts earlier on but it seems concrete to me right now.

Well, this post, specifically.

Mainly because you FOS Rodan for doing exactly what both you and TMT did after him. You also claim that "the dead musician theory is a near certainty."

Surely it would have been prudent to have cleared this up earlier in the game? I think both you and TMT are highly suspicious for keeping highly important information from the town the entire game.

It's also very fortunate that every one of your powers that you couldn't possibly prove have already been used (copping and protecting cf, an using the one-shot unnkable). The one-shot nk you seem to have come up with an excuse for (not wanting to use it at lylo), and not many people would call your bluff.

Answer me this, why use the doctor on cf?

by **crucialityfactor** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 4:58 am UTC

Hey...leave the dead out of this

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:28 am UTC

I was worried I would be killed before I got the chance to use the doctor, so I went by my gut. I also had a nagging suspicion in such a large game there were likely to be multiple nk's and aimed to stop one (I failed). I didn't protect vo on the off chance she WAS mafia (I remember thinking that while I believed her, there was a fair chance she was using the abilities she had as a mafia member as part of a bluff, and on that off chance I shouldn't protect her, and also believing we had a full-time doctor that would in fact protect her (wifom galour I know, but I had to m ake a decision and I did)).

by **ameretrifle** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:41 am UTC

I don't really want to make a final judgment right now because it's rather late at night here and I've felt a bit like crap for quite some time now, but for future reference, I am... highly skeptical of this claim. Not only are the bare facts of it weird, as VZ's been poking at, but the flavor seems off and the whole strategy, this whole claim, just doesn't seem very Brook to me at the moment.

also for future reference, my life is pretty well taken up by school atm, but i've found time to listen to a couple more leonard cohen songs. i think i may owe Az money. i wonder if he has need of a scarf? or a cthulu bunny? i have black yarn now that i could use for eyes. or just sew on big X's. see if i can scar NaR even more. heh. :mrgreen:

now that is what crochet is all about. and knitting? totally about the long stabbity needles. heh heh that is literally why i learned to knit, nice long stabbity metal needles. shame they're not useful for any of the big or useful projects. which i can't do yet anyway. i have a headache...

by **dedalus** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 11:16 am UTC

Just so you know, I updated the player and artist list on the front page in text. Apologies for being lazy.

Votals:
TMT: 1 (Dromtry)

by **existential_elevator** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 11:28 am UTC

Right. Having a bundle of one-shot abilities does not make you town. We know there are non-vanilla mafia members.

Double right. I've been claiming since Day 2. I'm not a cop I'm a tracker, effectively, as long as I guess the item of the day [this might be the three billionth time I've explained this]. I guess the item right, I chose to track / protect / silence the target. I've only used track because, like, at least there's a chance I get information out of it. So far, jack shit help it's been. I mean, first day I tracked Sid Vicious and learned nothing. I don't particularly think protect or silence would have been a better choice. He didn't target anyone, I didn't learn anything. Then it was Ms. Ellis Bextor, where I also learned nothing [but she died in the night: sadly my ability didn't let me know if someone else targeted her, which might have, you know, been useful]. Then I completely failed to get Freddie Mercury the next night, and so forfeited my action. Then yesterday it was Kells, which also did me no good. Today it's TMT. ~shrug~ You guys can pick what I do to him. But frankly, I don't want someone around whose win condition is to kill prog musicians, when we have no guarantee that equals scum.

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 3:22 pm UTC

Are you given a list of like, three potential items? Or do you just guess from anything in the world?

by **existential_elevator** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 3:26 pm UTC

The. Item. Of. The. Day.

No, I do not get a choice in the matter, what else would be the sense in guessing it? I can only assume someone has a similar condition on their actions with the notes of the day.

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:51 pm UTC

I have to recommend getting rid of TMT right now too, as even though TMT seems to be not scum (this isn't a guarantee by a long shot) TMT wants to cause more deaths and not for the town. SO perhaps TMT should be a vig kill?

In addition, I believe right now for it to be lylo we have to have THREE mafia members alive (I also believe I mentioned that before) which would be more proof the dead mafia theory has to be wrong as it comes up short.

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:54 pm UTC

Brooklynxman wrote:I have to recommend getting rid of TMT right now too, as even though TMT seems to be not scum (this isn't a guarantee by a long shot) TMT wants to cause more deaths and not for the town. SO perhaps TMT should be a vig kill?

In addition, I believe right now for it to be lylo we have to have THREE mafia members alive (I also believe I mentioned that before) which would be more proof the dead mafia theory has to be wrong as it comes up short.

Why don't you do us all a favor and use your one shot nk on him?

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:05 pm UTC

EBWOP: And you didn't address the same issue that I have with TMT, why didn't you try to stop the dead musicians theory before it got out of hand? At lylo it's a little late for reconciliation.

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:56 pm UTC

Because I had no proof (I still don't but now I have no choice) and all evidence was against me. Like I said since the evidence was against me I was looking for those who supported it too much. Answer me this, if I was a member of an all dead mafia why would I support the theory?

I suppose I can use my nk on TMT. That works.

by **existential_elevator** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:02 pm UTC

Brooklynxman wrote:In addition, I believe right now for it to be lylo we have to have THREE mafia members alive (I also believe I mentioned that before) which would be more proof the dead mafia theory has to be wrong as it comes up short.

I hate to bust your bubble, but there are reasons why there could be only two mafia and a lylo for town. I already went through them earlier. And, well, I say "only". I mean, if you're going to tell me there are three mafia, that would mean we started out with five mafia, along with a bunch of independents and an sk AND a cult. In a 20 player game I find this implausible.

by **ameretrifle** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:26 pm UTC

e_e, what does silencing the target entail? Is it a post restriction, or a voteblock, or a roleblock? Because a roleblock on him tonight could be quite useful, if he is what he says he is. (Or even if he isn't.) Otherwise, yeah, not exceptionally helpful today.

And yeah,I'm not buying the three-mafia-left idea. From flavor, I think we have at least one non-recruiting cultist left, there's people who've claimed independent/survivor, and there's also another killing role. And five mafia to start with seems way too high. And it seems odd that not only would you not declaim the all-dead mafia theory, but you'd actively support it... still quite leery here. I'd actually be fairly comfortable throwing out a vote if it wasn't LYLO.

Anyone want to fess up to knowing what the notes are about, BTW? Or are they indeed just random? Heck, I'd just be interested to know if they are connected to anyone's role, I wouldn't insist on knowing what they're for.

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:29 pm UTC

Brooklynxman wrote:Because I had no proof (I still don't but now I have no choice) and all evidence was against me. Like I said since the evidence was against me I was looking for those who supported it too much. Answer me this, if I was a member of an all dead mafia why would I support the theory?

I suppose I can use my nk on TMT. That works.

Because we didn't know you were undead at the time, and now that you don't have anonymity to hide you, you can't support it.

by **Dromtry** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:49 pm UTC

And answer me this, why would an undead musician not in an undead mafia support the theory?

by **Brooklynxman** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 11:14 pm UTC

Dromtry wrote:And answer me this, why would an undead musician not in an undead mafia support the theory?

I already explained: I had no evidence to prove otherwise, and decided I would play it cool till a non-dead mafia member got killed. Obviously this hasn't happened yet with at MOST half the mafia members dead, and being lylo AND mass-claim I had no choice but to come out with no evidence supporting my claim whatsoever.

I was kind of backed into a corner for most of the game.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:26 am UTC

This is such an eerily meta-gamey game...

Thoughts.

The dead mafia theory has only Brook's and TMT's word going against it.

Dromtry, AMT and e_e have occasionally seemed to be coordinated with one another, but occasionally to be distrustful of one another. Dromtry and AMT are the two strongest proponents of "There is no possible way that there could be more than 3 Mafia at the moment. The Dead Mafia is gospel, so don't even try to talk about it!" The link with E_E is not all that strong, so if Dromtry and AMT are in fact Mafia, I can't guarantee that E_E is the third.

Rodan makes me nervous in all sorts of ways... But I don't know about him.

I suspect VZ of being our serial killer/vig/whatever.

by **existential_elevator** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:35 am UTC

ameretrifle wrote:e_e, what does silencing the target entail? Is it a post restriction, or a voteblock, or a roleblock? Because a roleblock on him tonight could be quite useful, if he is what he says he is. (Or even if he isn't.) Otherwise, yeah, not exceptionally helpful today.

It means they can't post at all the following day [which I guess means no voting, too]. No roleblock, I'm afraid. If he is scum, non-voting tomorrow would help town, obviously, but I really don't like the idea of making it so that someone we're suspicious of can't talk.

mpolo wrote:The dead mafia theory has only Brook's and TMT's word going against it.

Well, obviously, since they're the two people with dead musicians :roll:

But who else is going to go against it? It's the best lead we have. Does anyone have evidence to the contrary?

by **ameretrifle** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:09 am UTC

mpolo wrote:Dromtry, AMT and e_e have occasionally seemed to be coordinated with one another, but occasionally to be distrustful of one another. Dromtry and AMT are the two strongest proponents of "There is no possible way that there could be more than 3 Mafia at the moment. The Dead Mafia is gospel, so don't even try to talk about it!" The link with E_E is not all that strong, so if Dromtry and AMT are in fact Mafia, I can't guarantee that E_E is the third.

I'm not married to the dead mafia theory. I'm willing to consider other possibilities. In fact, I don't think I've mentioned it today at all. But I do indeed find it really, really unlikely that we have three mafia around. Wait... "the third"? You're assuming there's three mafia around. Now why is that? That would be three mafia, a vig/sk, and at least one cult, and, unless my lack of fact-checking is coming back to bite me, it means we would've started out with 5 mafia in a 20-person game. 1/4 mafia. Does that seem right to you?

Seriously, that post is weird...

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:23 am UTC

O.K. If there is a third. Sorry. The bell rang for class and I had to run without reading though the post.

by **ameretrifle** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:47 am UTC

Well, I'm avoiding writing a paper right now, so I kinda feel ya there. >_> Seriously, what kind of jackass wants you to cram 5 sources into a thousand-word paper? And it's not one of those "at least a thousand words, don't really care if you go over" assignments, he's saying 1100 is the max. Five sources. God I loathe this man as a professor. As a person he seems nice. As a professor, well, maybe it'd be cool if course evaluations worked a little more like mafia. >_> I think I actually have been trying to start a good wagon...

(/utterly offtopic end-of-semester stressed-out grumbling)

The post's still weird though. ^^ But yeah, I think I get where you're coming from. For the moment, anyway.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:32 am UTC

I find BXM's claim to be wholly unsatisfying, like diet tofu.
I'm also not convinced by mpolo's theories:

mpolo wrote:The dead mafia theory has only Brook's and TMT's word going against it.

All that's going for it is 2 dead scum. Not a guarantee, but certainly worth thinking of.

Dromtry, AMT and e_e have occasionally seemed to be coordinated with one another, but occasionally to be distrustful of one another.

I disagree. the trio most closely connected is dromtry, e_e and Rodan, since the latter two got kells lynched yesterday to save dromtry. Not a guarantee of scumminess, but I'm surprised no one is as excited by this as I am.

Dromtry and AMT are the two strongest proponents of "There is no possible way that there could be more than 3 Mafia at the moment. The Dead Mafia is gospel, so don't even try to talk about it!" The link with E_E is not all that strong, so if Dromtry and AMT are in fact Mafia, I can't guarantee that E_E is the third.

dunno what to make of this

Rodan makes me nervous in all sorts of ways... But I don't know about him.

but your generally thoughts are? good/bad/indiferrent?

I suspect VZ of being our serial killer/vig whatever.

On what grounds?

You've also completely failed to account for any remaining cult or anti-cult masons.

by **ameretrifle** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:54 am UTC

Diet tofu exists? Why does diet tofu exist?

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:57 am UTC

When I say that the only thing against the "dead mafia" theory is Brook's and TMT's word, that was meant to say that the other evidence would seem to support the theory (but see below -- I think we're basically in agreement here).

I have a generally uncomfortable to negative feeling about Rodan. There's a lot of gut feeling going around here. I was writing quickly this morning, and knew that you had seen three people apparently connected and tried to see what I could see in that direction. My different conclusion from you should not be seen as saying that you are wrong, because I was really pressed while writing. I will come back to this this evening. (So hang on for an analysis, if my other commitments allow me to do so.)

There are some possible explanations for how the mafia could be only two and still have us at LyLo, but these seem to be accompanied very often by "The dead mafia is a certainty! It's too late to even consider another possibility! Shut up and lynch!" (exaggerated for dramatic effect) Which sort of pings me just a tad. I also tend to buy your argument that a situation of 1-1-1 would result in a town or mafia win as decided by the independent's vote. As such, two mafia members and eight town-independent-cult-masons-kitchensink doesn't look like LyLo to me, and that speaks against the dead mafia theory. And if you're right and those three are working together, there is a very good possibility that we have a mafia right there. I believe I posted earlier in that direction.

Of the three that you link, I am least comfortable with Rodan, and if I can go back and verify the link between him and Dromtry, that would be near decisive for me.

My reasons for suspecting you are the vigilante/SK. You seem to be pro-town. Your name has Explosion in it. You posted recently about proper strategy for a serial killer (i.e., work with the town until the mafia's gone). O.K. it's pretty meta and flimsy. I said it was a suspicion, not some sort of iron-clad accusation.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 11:10 am UTC

I guess it would be tofu with a glass of water. (heh. i had a google search open looking for "diet tofu", and since I'm an idiot and was trying to remember who else had been in this game...the one next to it was the wikipedia entry for Michael Lee Aday...I leave the rest as an exercise for the reader)

Also, I'm surprised a discussion of prog rock has not resulted in any reference to the best song based on the IATA designation of a Canadian airport.

Anyhoo, on the one hand the dead mafia/TMT&BXM theory is tempting. On the other the Rodan/e_e/dromtry thing still weighs on my mind, but on balance I guess it's less important. On the other (yes, third) hand, what if TMT is SK or similar and not mafia? Who else could partner with Brook?

If we lynch brook, and e_e tracks TMT, will that give us any decent information? All eggs in one basket? Do we need to go looking for the SK/vig now?

If we are at LYLO because of nearing a mafia win, and not for fear of a town loss (which I still maintain could only happen with a complete annihilation of town, and that's not likely with the current setup) then the non-mafia killing roles need to help town take out mafia today and overnight too.

Ninja'd:I'm generally getting townie vibes from mpolo, and this in particular I agree with:

mpolo wrote:As such, two mafia members and [six] town-independent-cult-masons-kitchensink doesn't look like LyLo to me, and that speaks against the dead mafia theory. And if you're right and those three are working together, there is a very good possibility that we have a mafia right there. I believe I posted earlier in that direction.

for obvious reasons

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