Mini - Job Agency Mafia - Town Win!

[hendusoone]

I'd say from this that your a roleblocker than. Unless someone else who doesn't know what their ability does wants to say they targeted cueball n1, then there is no reason why his night kill wouldn't have gone through, so someone who targeted him had to be a roleblocker.

Except there was a death on N1. From the players list:

1. Not A Raptor (Killed N1, town doctor)

It follows that this was done by Cueball. The best fit is that AMT is a cop, and I'm a roleblock.

As for the apparent two groups who are able to PM each other: Possibly one group is town-mason, and the other group cult? From recent posts, it appears the pairs are:
MoA with Brook
F_C with Unknown

At this time, I am unsure which group could potentially be least trustworthy. I'm more inclined to trust the ones who have freely admitted the full pairing, and that alignment-shift revealed by the insane cop on F_C could potentially be explained by a culting. Thoughts?

[Brooklynxman]

Because I targeted Enginard and nothing happened. And I believe my power is to gain the ability to pm someone.

[Van]

I don't really think we're likely to be up against a cult? If you're basing it on the fact we have multiple PMing groups: we had 3 (MoA/Brook, F_C/CueBall, and assumedly mafia) to begin with. Unless he was a mason (or scum) who was recruited to MoA/Brook's cult, it's pretty likely we just have a bunch of minimason groups.

Anyway, I'm going out of town for a conference, I'll be back on sunday

[hendusoone]

If there is no cult, then why hasn't the game ended yet? We've already killed the serial killer. Unless we have a second roleblocker who hasn't spoken up yet, we have these scenarios:
1. Scum didn't send in a kill last night.
2. Scum is already completely eliminated.
3. Brook led a lynch on his scumbuddy, had the NK blocked by me, and has some sort of crazy additional PMing ability wtih MoA.

I don't think it's 3, and we haven't had anyone lurky enough (except maybe MoA) for it to be 1. That would leave 2, meaning there's something else out there preventing this game from ending. Most likely it is cult.

I propose we move forward in one of these ways:
1. Vote no-lynch, and use our cops to figure out who else needs to be lynched (it could also be that a no-lynch is needed to end the game, if this is a bit of a bastardy game).
2. Pick someone from one of the PMing groups, and lynch them as a test. If they come back town, then go after the other pair.

Note that since the other half of F_C's pair is unknown, that one seems to more likely to be evil (F_C has had plenty of opportunity to reveal his PMing partner, but hasn't, whereas Brook and MoA have been free with this information), though it would be quite difficult to root out the unknown partner. Additional evidence against F_C would be the alignment shift: meaning if F_C's pair is cult, F_C would be the possibly less dangerous recruited member of the cult, and the cult master being our unknown. Hopefully he doesn't have any more recruits, or we could be screwed. I'd say we should just lynch F_C now, but the trouble with that is F_C seems to be one of our sane cops. Agh... even so, it wouldn't be much of a loss, since he's unlikely to want to participate in rooting out cult if he is cult.

Agh, I think that's enough rambling from me. Everyone else, decide what the crap we should do about it, and weigh in with additional analysis.

[Enginerd27]

Something about Brook's story doesn't sync with me. MoA claimed that he and brook thought they were mafia day one because they could PM each other. But brook says his power gives him the ability to PM a person and he targeted me last night and it didn't work. Does this mean you targeted MoA night one or is there an additional person that you can PM?

[Brooklynxman]

Our alignment said not cult. We had assumed there wasn't a cult and thought because of the fact we could talk and weren't called town we were scum. Also, my N1 target was NaR. I gained the ability to pm him but he was dead. Now that I know Cueball is scum (clearing me, or at least almost certainly clearing me) I realize someone else probably targeted nar and I can pm whoever I target. (again nothing happened with my N2 target so I was probably roleblocked).

Could I still be scum with the random ability to pm MoA: yes it is a possibility. I have now given all the information I have.

[Flying_Cookie]

I have no intention of revealing my partner, as at this point I believe the two of us are town. Until they reveal it, its not my information to share.

I think we have three basic options for what the game state is right now
A. No scum left, have to no-lynch
B. Roleblocked scum left/scum didn't use action/doesn't have a night kill
C. Cult

Normally I would think that C would be unlikely in a game this small, since if it was large then town would quickly lose, and if it was small (limited growth perhaps like a limit to the number of the members or only recruiting every other day or something) then they wouldn't really have a chance with this many cops running around. Because cults would either be to strong or to weak, I wouldn't think there would be one. But since Brook claims his alignment is Not Cult, having a cult seems much more likely. Why would the alignment specifically be not cult if we don't have cults? Then again, brook could be lying about because he thinks there is a cult, and said that to raise other people's suspicions, or because he is cult and wants to bring up the idea of them to try and get other people lynched.

In case its either A or B, I think the simplest method of going about this game would be to vote for no lynch today, then over night everyone who thinks that they are not a cop targets the same person as the night before (that way if it was a roleblocked scum they can't do any damage), and have the cops search other people to check their alignment.
Then if we find anyone whose scum or a cult we can take them out, and if not, and no one dies over night, we just repeat the process, with the cops targeting new people.

Even if we do have a cult that can recruit one person a day, then today we have a threeman cult (if the culter didn't get roelblocked at all) in the worst case. And if that was the case, then it would be LYLO at this point, which then begs a question.
Adacore, will be informed if we are at LYLO?

[Adacore]

Adacore, will be informed if we are at LYLO?

Yes, I suppose so.

[hendusoone]

Just a heads-up, I'm away all weekend. Don't expect to hear from me until Monday, at the earliest. I would hope you all continue the discussion in my absence.

There is very little I disagree with in F_C's post. The only trick with pre-determining those targets is trusting everyone to follow the plan. So... carry on with discussion

[Flying_Cookie]

Since we haven't been told that its LYLO, then I think its safe to assume that we either have a limited cult, a roleblocked cult, or not a cult at all. I think this means that my plan should be fine, obviously people have to agree to it, I'm willing to trust that most people here will follow with the plan, as I think most people here are town. If anyone sees any other flaws with it, please point them out.

[Brooklynxman]

My only objection with FC's plan is it seems I will never get to use my power, but I don't really see myself doing too much with pm'ing anyway so I'm all for it.

[ameretrifle]

Seems a bit risky, but... it could net us some good info, and it seems potentially less risky than in most other games. Yeah, I think I could get behind this.

Does mean I have to decide who to target, though. God I'm lazy this week.

[MasterOfAll]

I have to say that I CANNOT get on board the no-lynch train. The problem is that it is pretty much the worst thing we could do if there IS a cult, and I have good reason to believe there is indeed (my role PM hinted at it, although I am still not sure that it wasn't just the mod screwing with me). I think to be on the safe side we have to assume that there is a cult, and then act accordingly.

[MasterOfAll]

Wow, this game is just barely moving, isn't it? Not that I have anything to say. I will endeavor to do another re-read later today and try to come up with a case to lynch someone.

[Adacore]

Indeed, once again the crawl has slowed too much. Deadline is set for 23:59 Monday 8th March (I would put it sooner, but I'm not sure I'll be around much until then).

[Enginerd27]

I think our best path forward is to lynch one of the claimed masons as it is likely that they are cult masquerading as masons. Brook's power claim makes me nervous because it sounds a lot like a recruitment mechanism but F_C's partner has been unwilling to come forward. If we lynch F_C it's true we'd have no idea who the partner is but we could at least exonerate Brook's group.

Vote: F_C

[MasterOfAll]

Oh well, I was planning to stay quite to keep cueball off my back, but it looks like this won't work out.
Yesterday I was Cueballs partner, we could PM each other, and each had an (unidentified) night action. Both of our alignments where listed as not-town. Which could be anything from independent to mafia. I'm leaning towards independent, last night I targeted Hendu, and the only result involving him was the cop result, which seems to make more sense if I was independent rather than scum. Why would scum need cops after all? Then the next day I was informed that my alignment had changed to town, and that I was a mason. I lost the ability to PM Cueball, but gained the ability to PM [Name Redacted] (no point giving away any more info to scum than necessary, right?). Because I was thinking that cueball and I where independent before I choose not to out him to the town, since usually independents can win with town. At this point I think have a copping ability, unless I was role blocked and someone else has the copping ability that targeted Hendu.

Last night two different things are possible, either I was copped by the insane cop, who got the read as pro-town, since before I was not town, which means the cop of Hendu is accurate, or I was copped by the sane cop, who got me after I had joined the mason group, and so got the town read, which means that the cop on Hendu is insane, and thus he is scum. Because I only was pro-town at the beginning of the day, and the cop most likely took place at night, I think it is more likely that the first result is the most likely, which would clear Hendu, as he would be the target of the sane cop.

I can also vouch for Cueball not having a kill, as I know who is target was. I think this would imply independent rather than scum, so it should be safe to leave cueball alive.

Okay, back on D2 FC admitted being a D1 partner with Cueball, who ended up being scum. Sure, he claims to have been converted somehow on N1, but I am really wondering if that was all just a ruse. So, yeah, I will jump on that bandwagon Enginerd started and . . .

Vote: FC

If anyone wants to provide some reasons for why this might be a really stupid thing to do, I am open to the possibility of changing to someone else.

[Flying_Cookie]

Well, I'll point out that I was getting rather close to being lynched, and one of the people who was rather early on that lynch was cueball himself. So why would he want to throw his own fellow under the bus, when it didn't look like it would be a foregone conclusion?

Anyway, like I said, its not my place to share who my partner is. Its up to them.

[Brooklynxman]

Unless the mod outright lied to me I am NOT cult (but it looks like I am a mason so it could be a mason recruit).

The ONLY thing I was told about my alignment was that I'm not cult.

[Flying_Cookie]

Unless the mod outright lied to me I am NOT cult (but it looks like I am a mason so it could be a mason recruit).

The ONLY thing I was told about my alignment was that I'm not cult.

Or your lying.

[Flying_Cookie]

EBWOP: wrong you're ><

[hendusoone]

My biggest (only) reason for not voting for F_C yet is that he's apparently one of our sane cops. I'm not ready to bandwagon him yet. I want to do a little more analysis first, maybe see if I can figure out the mystery partner first. Or at least some candidates, so I can decide who to roleblock tonight and hopefully prevent further cultish recruiting.

In fact, I'm going to do that right now.

Living Players, and suspected power:
Flying_Cookie - Sane cop, PMs with unknown
MasterOfAll - Unknown power, PMs with Brook
ameretrifle - Sane cop
hendusoone -Roleblock
Brooklynxman - Claimed non-cult, picks people to PM
Van - Claimed insane cop
Enginerd27 - Nothing is known

I guess that puts Enginerd and MoA at the top of my suspect list after F_C, with more suspicion on the one we have less info about.

Vote: Flying_Cookie

[hendusoone]

By the way... the reason MoA is on my list - it is possible he may have been recruited into Brook's PM-group, yet is a sort of a double agent and leading a cult at the same time. Still, he has been more forthcoming with information than Enginerd has, which is ranking him slightly lower on my suspicionometer.

[MasterOfAll]

No, I was not recruited by Brook. I have been able to PM him the entire game. And, my role PM was probably an exact copy of his, since it also said that I was not cult (which is the hint about there being a cult that I mentioned in a previous post, and also part of what made me think I was scum). I do think that Brook's power is to add a player to our mason group. (The N1 message that we could send messages to NAR was sent to the 2 of us simultaneously, but it also mentioned that NAR was dead, which I thought at the time was just the mod's way of trying to mask that we were scum, but now think was just unfortunate coincidence that Brook selected the same target as the real mafia.) I still honestly have no idea what my power is. If it matters to anyone, I could even tell you who my N1 and N2 targets were. They are both still alive and I have gotten zero feedback from the mod about them.

[Van]

Since everyone seems to be barreling down the "It's a cult!" highway, as there just can't be any mafia left, etc etc:

CueBall was mafia, with a nightkill power.

Was I the only one that read that and instantly thought "Ah, the other scum doesn't have a NK now"?

I don't know, I just have a hard time buying mafia + SK + cult in a game this small with so many unknown variables. The point of having a mafia team is communication, otherwise CueBall would've just been a second SK, which would mean we started with, at minimum, 1 SK, 2 mafia, 1 cult. Out of 10 people. That's basically lylo on D1, with our only saving grace being that targeting might get screwed up by not knowing roles to begin with.

[ameretrifle]

CueBall was mafia, with a nightkill power.

Was I the only one that read that and instantly thought "Ah, the other scum doesn't have a NK now"?

Maybe not instantly. But as long as we're not getting pedantic about it, no, you were not. It's not impossible that the other mafia's power is a nightkill as well, or else has become one-- but it's also far from a sure thing.

I'm still trying to decide who I believe. Long crappy ill-defined paper due this weekend that I have 3/4 of a page done on is not helping. >_> It is true that the whole PM gambit D1 could've been... er. A gambit. By mafia. It would've been awfully risky, though. I also agree that cults don't generally work in games this small, no matter how many roleblockers we may or may not have, and the whole "Not Cult" alignment could've just been a slightly bastardly misdirection on the mod's part. It would be pretty bastardly, but not quite enough for me to dismiss the possibility. The MoA/Brook thing could've been a gambit, too, but... it's one hell of a gambit. "Uh, I dunno what my alignment is" on D1? If that was a ploy, I will have to revise my opinion of MoA in fairly drastic ways. ^~

Sorry if this is a bit nonsensical and rambly, it's rather late and I'm trying to get my thoughts on this game sorted out finally. All in all, the F_C wagon doesn't strike me as a bad idea at the moment, though I have yet to determine if it strikes me as a good one. BTW, we're at L-1, so if F_C does have a partner, this is looking like 'speak now or forever hold your peace' time.

[Brooklynxman]

Wouldn't it make sense if I was cult to say I suspect I have a power that doesn't sound culty in the same post I advocate there is a cult? I bow before the wifom of my previous statement and this whole scenario.

I agree the math seems off on the mafia/sk/cult combo thing (its not lylo D!, lylo isn't until one particular anti-town team is within sight of CONTROLLING the lynch, a lynch split between 4 factions is not game over). Unless the cult has really low recruitment levels....I honestly don't know what to do.

[hendusoone]

Sane cop and insane cop: *please* make sure you don't target the same person at night. If you do, we'll have no idea which result is correct.

Votal?

[Van]

Is there any reason not to coordinate our targets? We've all (iirc) claimed, so it seems to me that there's absolutely nothing to lose from working together.

[ameretrifle]

Hell yes, I'm for it. Who're you looking at? I'm going to try to look over things more, now that 1984ia's over and I'm dead in Cuban.

[Van]

I will be targeting Enginerd. I'm pretty sure he hasn't claimed any sort of alignment at any point, nor has he divulged anything about his role, which seems a little odd when practically everyone else has claimed. While that might seem a little odd coming from the last person to claim, I wasn't about to claim as a theoretical cop.

Actually, I'm going to just go with my gut here, point out my early thoughts about MoA and Enginerd and
Vote: Enginerd27

[ameretrifle]

I'll start looking (I think I'll get more done after I turn a certain very annoying paper in on the 7th), but partly it depends on who we lynch today, doesn't it? Which is not looking like quite as much of a sure thing as it did a couple days ago. Sigh. I'm sorry I've been so damn lazy in this game-- 1984ia demanded a lot of my attention. And it's just been a very slow game on the whole.

Enginerd's absence is odd, I grant you that. Once I remember what the hell your early thoughts on him and MoA were, I will consider your arguments more fully. X_X

[hendusoone]

Unofficial votal:

7 players alive, 4 votes to lynch.

Flying_Cookie - 3: Enginerd27, MasterOfAll, hendusoone
Enginerd27 - 1: Van

Deadline is set for 23:59 Monday 8th March (today!!!)

[Adacore]

The above post by hendusoone is correct

[Van]

Will F_C be lynched if he doesn't get a 4th vote?

[Not A Raptor]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I'm a ghost, see? (Why haven't you guys finished yet?)

[Brooklynxman]

Vote: FC

[ameretrifle]

Since Van's going with Enginerd, I assume, I think I'll try either MoA or Brook (seems the most logical choice to clear that thing up). MoA claimed questionable-alignment first, but Brook just hammered, but I REALLY can't blame him for that, so. Let's see if this goes how we think it will.

[Van]

I guess it's a good thing Adacore didn't reply before deadline, because I completely forgot to check the thread

Last visited: Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:43 pm UTC

Ohnoooooooooooooooooo

[Adacore]

Sorry about the absence.

Flying_Cookie has been lynched. It is now Night 3 - get your night actions in!

If you're lucky I'll change the thread title later.