[Normal] Frogzombie - Town win

[mpolo]

I think that _infina_ misunderstood me. I pointed out that he [_infina_] provided a rather unmotivated "Felltir seems like town". And that got me thinking about a possible relationship between the two. As I have had several pings with _infina_, but was by no means sure about anything, I chose to put a vote on the lurky half of my proposed scum duo. This may or may not be the best thing.

As I'm standing now, _infina_ is the active player that looks scummiest. And the explicit wine-spreading statements are not helping my feeling here. A vote may well be following shortly.

I have on my "townie" list:
mister k (hunch and no real counter information)
Dr Ug (weak, primarily for providing an analysis on NaR that concluded what I had concluded before)
NotARaptor (still weak, but becoming more confident)
weiyaoli (no real negatives, but no huge positive pings)

"scummy" list:
_infina_
hordes of accursed lurkers, undoubtedly minions of Xemu

[jayhsu]

Analysis by posts.

Mpolo:
1. Confirmation.
2. Light rolespec, notes that the "Anti-frogs [presumably masons] had the cooler poster."
3. More substantive rolespec post. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=40#p2201297
4. Comments on NAR v. Van, inclined to give NAR benefit of the doubt
5. Thoughts on other players, also inclined to give TLC benefit of the doubt.
6. Some rolespec.
7. Discouraged by lurker lynching.
8. Brief discussion on the perils of lurking re KK.
9. Similar to previous post.
10. Lifts his suspicions of KK and TLC.
11. Light discussion re KK.
12. Discussion on TLC, KK, and Weiyaoli.
13. Though unconvinced of KK vote, proceeds to vote (and hammer) anyway. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=200#p2223600 Even though KK was ahead by 7 votes (total of 9) and there was a hard deadline coming up.
14. Explains hammer and thoughts on other players.
15. Spec on FZs.
16. Admits to having 'forgotten' about the game.
17. Analysis on lurkers, ends up with vote on Felltir and much suspicion on Infina. Largely logical analysis.
18. Response to infina.
19. Clarification on accusations, and town/scum list.


TLC:
1. Confirmation.
2. Filler.
3. Filler.
4. Light rolespec.
5. Light rolespec.
6. Vote on Van, made more alarming by almost complete lack of any evidence or support.
7. Unvotes to "clean up [his] mud."
8. Briefly explains his 'joke' vote.
9. Seemingly more substantive rolespec. As noted by PhoenixEnigma right after, perhaps too obvious.
10. Addresses the accusations against him.
11. Lurker list.
12. Filler.
13. Not sure how to categorize this post, but it's largely insubstantial.http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=80
13. Comments on other players.
14. Comments on votes against him.
15. Comments (lightly) on Infina's vote on him.
16. Notes that KK voted him without evidence (something he had done previously in this game and in prior games).
17. Advocates waiting for Milkybee's replacement
18. Vote on KK, the main reason being to get the day to pass by.
19. Notes his own hypocrisy and unvotes. Begins suspecting DP.
20. Not sure what to make of this post either. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=200#p2221586
21. Returns to vote KK, citing that it's okay to mess up on a lynch.
22. Comments on DL's inactivity.
23. Filler.
24. Filler.
25. Light rolespec.
26. Light rolespec.
27. Tries to explain self and light rolespec. Notes that his own vote is unjustified as he just wanted the day to end.
28. More explanation of self.
29. Discussion on NAR and Infina.
30. Filler.
31. Analysis on DP (lurker).
32. Analysis on lurkers, particularly DP and NAR
33. Awaits analysis on DP from a third party.
34. Request for clarification of my post.
35. Begins to investigate Infina?



Overall, I am feeling perhaps less sure than before. I actually get the feeling that TLC might even be town now, left alive by the mafia to spread more wine. I haven't read thoroughly the arguments against Infina/Felltir, and I understand the DP lynch. I think I might vote for Mpolo, because his hammer on KK felt strange to me.

I'll read on Infina/Felltir/DP now.

[Van]

Dear Dr Ug,

I love you, but I think the other players are a little too dependent (and/or trusting) on your analysis. I base this on the 3(?) requests for a NARlysis and the chorus of "k he's town!" after it was done.

Love, Van

Top 5 Lurkers according to last post time are:
Felltir
Van
mister k
Dr Ug
dotproduct

<One line rebuttal proving my townienessI'm not lurking>

(that's how it's done, right?)

At the moment I am finding this game amazingly frustrating. I'm not sure why, perhaps it is the lack of info, or the complete lack of consensus, or the general dragging along, but I am definitely feeling vexed. I think I would bandwagon you if someone else voted for you. Yes, you, the reader.

[Van]

After 10 minutes in bed, I have decided that post was entirely too snarky to end on a note like that.

Post 23: >10 lines of content

Spoiler:

Dr Ug, would you make one of those analysis posts I hear you do on NaR please, I want to be able to place my finger on what it is that strikes me as scummy about him, other than the BXM being turned into a frogzombie thing.

How about this:

Both MAFIA have a kill.

Is this a statement of fact, or is it a guess. If the Masons have a kill, I would think it would be a kill, not make a frogzombie, because they hate the frogzombies.
Well, in any case, I have a feeling you are town. My big twinges are still TLC and NaR. What it is about them exactly I cannot tell. Although with BXM a frogzombie, I am starting to suspect Van. That might have been the Mysterious Association of Frogzombie Instigation Advocates trying to frame Van, which makes me suspect NaR even more. I shall hold my vote for now, until the some of the rest of the town can weigh in on this.

FoS: NaR

What are your reasons for suspecting NAR and for that matter Van?

Van was the only one to go after BXM, and NaR went after her. NaR would want to frame Van if he was scum.

While that would be possible, it's also possible and (statistically speaking) far more likely that BxM was killed because he has a reputation of being good at playing mafia. Indeed, as there were two kills over the night, there's no real reason to assume that the BxM kill was the mafia's at all! If there exists a SK, hitting BxM would be the optimal move for him. It offers two choices of people to frame (Van and I), and can easily be blamed on somebody else. Personally, I would welcome one of Dr Ug's analyses right about now. It might dispel some falsehoods.

I've just realized, though, that I don't exactly have a good read on infinia. Far from being a lurker, his posts have been scattered throughout the thread. Some jive well, and some do not. I'll make a few notes right now.

- He has suspected the same people since at least page 3.
- He spilled the wine (as pointed out by felltir) on page 3.
- Was terse when talking about RR, after he voted for him. Not much reason given. Then again, he was a lurker at the time.
- At the end of page three, suggested that something wasn't right and hopped on the TLC lynchwagon.
- Was mistaken about whether players were in the game or not (deficit of information and correction, or excuse to post little content?)
- Suggested a random lynch on page 4. What the hell? Oh, this was the post before the first vote was laid on KK as well.
- On page 5, admitted not paying much attention to the game, placed an IGMEOY on KK. Scum waiting to see if the lynch was going to happen?
- On page 6, came up with a list of four players he thought was scummy. Gave reasons for two. This is one of the few townish tells I got.

I must say, I don't think I can trust him at the moment.

FoS: -infina-

Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

FoS: Dr Ug
One of the following is probably true: You didn't crossref infina's posts with NAR's analysis, or you're trying to paint NAR's attempted painting of infina in a bad light in a good light. (That last bit was unwieldy, I'll admit) See: my post wherein I pointed this out. Interestingly, it was ignored by NAR (and now, yourself. Perhaps I need to stop typing with invisible pixels?), though he did bother to reply to infina's bizarro wine post a short while later, with a decidedly towny post proving that he just won't crack.

Isn't most analysis just a few sentences about each post? Isn't most analysis tainted by one's own biases? Perhaps I was seeing _infina_ in a bad light because he was pushing hard on me. Wouldn't you do the same? I suppose the best thing you can do is to avoid trusting analyses made under duress.

Well, okay. Now that Dr Ug has saved you from being lynched, perhaps you can analyze some people. Maybe you could give us your take on weiyargyle's strange cold feet on D1, or comment on some of the many lurkers, or examine and see if mpolo's early "scum helping" is enough to make him lynchworthy. I mean, now that you're not busy drafting one-liners to defend yourself, you're going to have a lot more free time. For serious, just pick someone that isn't attacking you and go nuts. iirc, if you rule out me, infina, and yourself, that still leaves 15 players, plenty o'variety to choose from.

Last but not least:

townie
towny
townie
towny

Etc. I realize this is meta, and I'm pretty cool with that, but think about this for a moment: Pretty much everything you said about NAR came down to "He didn't say something bad, so it was good". Repeating common-yet-useless pro-town knowledge is apparently a town-tell? Well, hell!

NL usually hurts down except at MYLO
Wine more or less never helps town
Lurking, especially active lurking, makes it easier for scum to win

How am I doing on the townie-meter? I've added absolutely nothing, and if I was scum, would have given absolutely nothing away, while still performing a pro-town function. A pro town function that is essentially useless. You're not going to see a game vote NL D1 these days, and if $lurker01 were to suddenly stop lurking, it's pretty unlikely s/he'd really sway the balance of the game. In essence, posting that did nothing but inflate my town-score. Hells yeah.

I think the days of "well, they quoted from the newbie guide, so that's a townie post" are pretty much over, much the same as 3rd-to-bandwagon is long dead and buried.

Actually, I don't think this post was any less bitchy. Ah, well

[_infina_]

I think only Felltir and dotproduct are the only ones from my top five lurkers who haven't posted since I posted it. Modprods Please
Dr Ug, NaR didn't want it. He never seconded my want for analysis on him. Some things don't fit well in your analysis. NaR had several posts of defense, several of them were just trying to throw all suspicions onto me. He only had 1/3 of the votes necessary to lynch on him, and they were not increasing much at all.
PE has only one post in D2, and no content. I would be okay to move my vote to here, if it would help bring the day to a close. PE had a fair amount on day 1 and nothing yet on day 2.

FoS: Dr Ug
FoS: PE

[Not A Raptor]

I'm interested in mpolo voting feltir rather than infina. Certainly theres some loose connection there, but maybe not enough, and everything infina does apparently pings mpolo? So why not vote infina? I get the lurking argument a little, but feltir feels more blameless to me. Could this be scum wanting to keep the most wine covered player alive? Eh, definitely pings there.

I meant to ask NaR exactly this question in my TL;DR summary - NaR seems to find Infina the scummiest for most of the second half of the game so far, and yet he voted DP. Why?

That's because I don't know what to make of infina in a metagaming sense. Is he usually like this? Is he a newbie? (the answer to that one appears to be yes.) Should the threshold for evidence be raised for newbies? (I would like to think so.)

If infina makes a few mistakes that relate to something other than what people think of me, I would definitely switch my vote. Until that happens (or somebody else makes an inexcusable error), I think that DP is the best target.

Isn't most analysis just a few sentences about each post? Isn't most analysis tainted by one's own biases? Perhaps I was seeing _infina_ in a bad light because he was pushing hard on me. Wouldn't you do the same? I suppose the best thing you can do is to avoid trusting analyses made under duress.

Well, okay. Now that Dr Ug has saved you from being lynched, perhaps you can analyze some people. Maybe you could give us your take on weiyargyle's strange cold feet on D1, or comment on some of the many lurkers, or examine and see if mpolo's early "scum helping" is enough to make him lynchworthy. I mean, now that you're not busy drafting one-liners to defend yourself, you're going to have a lot more free time. For serious, just pick someone that isn't attacking you and go nuts. iirc, if you rule out me, infina, and yourself, that still leaves 15 players, plenty o'variety to choose from.

I think that's an excellent idea, though it could've been served up with less sauce.

ANALYSIS OF JAYSHU:
Page two:
- Likes my rolespec, obvious summary of how doctors and cops play, wonders about a doctor-specific situation, hopes the situation doesn't result in a culted doctor, thinks it's likely. Standard day one speculation. Town, scum, and independents alike do this. Neutral.
- Agrees with the rolespec surrounding necromancers/resurrectors because of spoiler reading restriction. Same sort of non-ping as last post.
Page three:
- Refers to another game in which TLC acted stupid, doesn't like the idea of lynching him. Wants a modprod on a lurker. Declares the rolespeculation phase of D1 to be over. He a quick opinion with a pointer to supporting evidence and thinks that people are about to start accusing each other. Seems like an easy post to make, but it's made to prevent a lynch that might have occurred easily if circumstances had been slightly different. I'm inclined to think that this is townish behavior.
Page four:
- Homes in on KK's "I'll lurk moar" statement. Likes the Van reference and thinks he's new enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Doesn't have confidence in scumdars, disapproves of KK's vote. Hopes a cop will investigate KK. Asks that reasons be supplied for votes. Seems like the post leans toward town, but not strongly. I've seen some impressive scumdars in my time. Also, the newness-as-excuse was, in retrospect, not terribly valid.
- Doubts TLC's assessment, refers again to Transformafia. I get that jayshu is cautious, but this seems like an unnecessary restatement. Of course, if KK had turned up town, I'd think it was a wise observation, so YMMV. Neutral.
Page five:
- Agrees with Van about his assessment in a lukewarm way, wary of lynching on day one, thinks that they're just goof-ups that get exaggerated, promises a reread of the thread, professes a bad D1 lynch track record and waits with bated breath for D2 information revealed by roles. This seems to hold two obvious statements (regarding D1 lynches being exaggerated and his own bad luck on D1 (which many of us tend to share)), an opinion given without reasons, and a self-characterization. Seems neutral, but an easy post to make.
Page seven:
- Apologizes for being too busy to post, was surprised by the outcome of the KK lynch, makes a comparison to TLC to make his own actions seem a little more reasonable, is now suspicious of TLC due to hypocrisy, reasoning based on order of action, disdain for latecomers to the KK wagon based on obvious speculation as to how scum acts, waits for the mod's response to "was a simple majority enough for a lynch ("was mpolo's vote necessary" is the object of that question). There are a few things going on in this post. A few things can be interpreted to be scummish: the comparison, the order of action resoning, and the apology. One is something smart scum might do, the other two are common scum actions. But there are a few other things that could be towny: the comparison, the suspicion of TLC, and the question to the mod. The comparison and suspicion of TLC could be linked to start a vote on TLC, and the question to the mod could be a valid justification for the obvious reasoning. However, TLC could be town, in which case, the comparison and suspicion of TLC could be, if seen as a sequence, scummy... and the comparison on its own as more townish. My gut says this post is leaning scummy, but an assessment of neutral is also reasonable.
Page eight:
- Is divided on his opinion of me, though he is warm to my DP analysis, will read more, watching mpolo and TLC, suspects TLC the more he thinks. Short, but townish. He hasn't radically altered his opinion of TLC and mpolo from the prior page and is displaying characteristic caution in reserving his opinion of me.
- Makes a correction to his last post. Neutral.
Page nine:
- A post-by-post analysis of mpolo and TLC, italicizes for effect in TLC's examination, is less sure of his opinions, thinks TLC is bad town that the mafia is leaving around to confuse, doesn't know what to think of infina and felltir, understands the reasoning behind a DP lynch, wants to vote for mpolo because the hammer rubs him wrong, promises to read up on infina, felltir, and DP. Leans town, in my opinion. Seems to be doing a sweep through each person's posts and analyzing them one by one. Changed his mind about TLC, but suggests a scum plot to confuse us in its place. Should TLC come up scum in any future report, this would backfire as the suggestion of such a plot could preclude a lynch of TLC. Otherwise, it is excellent speculation on his part. I'm reading a bias against hammerers into this post, but that might just be because of circumstances.

Overall, the town pings are more numerous and stronger than the scum pings. I'm confident that Jayshu is town.

Ninja'd: If you'll look through my posts again, you'll see that I did second somebody's request for an analysis (I'm unsure now if it was you or Van). Just sayin'.

[Not A Raptor]

And by ninja'd, I mean, your post interrupted my posting my post, so I added a response to your post before proceeding to post. I like the word "post".

[_infina_]

I read that post three times, and I still missed it. I was the first to ask for it. PE is still a problem though. No thoughts on day two.
Has a Lataro replacement been found?
I'm gonna
Unvote
Vote: PhoenixEnigma
to see if PE will come back to us and post more.

[Dr Ug]

Dear Dr Ug,

I love you, but I think the other players are a little too dependent (and/or trusting) on your analysis. I base this on the 3(?) requests for a NARlysis and the chorus of "k he's town!" after it was done.

Love, Van

I agree, and thus my decision to analyse Infina next (he was the initial - "please do my work for me" requester). I'm not sure what you're getting at here:

FoS: Dr Ug
One of the following is probably true: You didn't crossref infina's posts with NAR's analysis, or you're trying to paint NAR's attempted painting of infina in a bad light in a good light. (That last bit was unwieldy, I'll admit) See: my post wherein I pointed this out. Interestingly, it was ignored by NAR (and now, yourself. Perhaps I need to stop typing with invisible pixels?), though he did bother to reply to infina's bizarro wine post a short while later, with a decidedly towny post proving that he just won't crack.

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

As for my spelling of towny/ie, I think I use -ie when I'm thinking of it as a noun, and -y when I'm thinking of it as an adjective, but it may also just be random. As I said just above, most of my reasoning for thinking NaR was towny was the lack of scum-tells when he had had a lot of provocation that may have brought some out. At that point in the analysis I was thinking exactly what you have said - that NaR was playing good scum. This could still be the case (he is a good player, so definitely possible). But it hasn't happened once or twice, there have been >10 opportunities that may have brought out a slip, and that hasn't happened. As you said,

he just won't crack.

That is my point, not just that he hasn't cracked, but that he hasn't cracked under constant pressure for a long period of time. Possible to do as scum, but a lot easier as town.

Dr Ug, NaR didn't want it. He never seconded my want for analysis on him.

That's just plain false:

Personally, I would welcome one of Dr Ug's analyses right about now. It might dispel some falsehoods.

And you're jumping onto the FoS wagon and suggesting a lurker lynch at this point when there's plenty of evidence to vote for people who are scummy, rather than absent (not inactive does not equal lurker - inactives should be dealt with by modly intervention, not lynching), isn't helping your survival.

[_infina_]

I later stated that I had missed it. Did you read the PE post? It was a a promise to deliver more in a day or two. PE has since failed to do so.
Dr Ug, the reason for my request has already been spelled out in one of my posts. Any analysis in which a person has a predicted outcome will be skewed toward that outcome. I can clear some of the wine I made if I make it to the night. I won't make it to a day 3 post, because it will help hide the scum behind more wine, but mine shall be cleared somewhat.

[Van]

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

I...what?

Post 23: Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

Can you explain to me how it is possible to critique and analysis someone else did without even examining their points?

As for my spelling of towny/ie, I think I use -ie when I'm thinking of it as a noun, and -y when I'm thinking of it as an adjective, but it may also just be random.

Um, it wasn't a commentary on your spelling, it was a commentary on your logic.

I think that DP is the best target.

Man, if only it was as easy to convince you that you should vote for yourself I am totally down for lynching dp, as I'm pretty sure you'll still be around tomorrow, though I suppose you could prove me wrong. And NK yourself. Scum.

Oh god, I just realized that this may not even be settled by death. If I get NKed, I can't read spoilers, and if you get NKed, I may not know if you're scum or not until after the game ends cuz' of frogzombies. So unfair!

[Not A Raptor]

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

I...what?

Post 23: Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

Can you explain to me how it is possible to critique and analysis someone else did without even examining their points?

As for my spelling of towny/ie, I think I use -ie when I'm thinking of it as a noun, and -y when I'm thinking of it as an adjective, but it may also just be random.

Um, it wasn't a commentary on your spelling, it was a commentary on your logic.

I think that DP is the best target.

Man, if only it was as easy to convince you that you should vote for yourself I am totally down for lynching dp, as I'm pretty sure you'll still be around tomorrow, though I suppose you could prove me wrong. And NK yourself. Scum.

Oh god, I just realized that this may not even be settled by death. If I get NKed, I can't read spoilers, and if you get NKed, I may not know if you're scum or not until after the game ends cuz' of frogzombies. So unfair!

Well, since all you have is wine evidence and an iron gut, flailing as you are may be the best course of action. It's not very dignified, but it might allow you to pursue targets that are actually scummy.

[Van]

Woo! Is it time for insulting now? Those pants make you look fat!

I don't believe I've presented any "wine evidence", that'd be the elephant in the room (who I won't name (it's infina)). I did have a wacky theory, which I presented upon request and proceeded to study your reaction to it. As Dr Ug noted, you've made a large number of posts like the previous one, defending, but not overdefending. Very measured. Very precise. Very... sarcastic? Also, very low in content.

Here's a fun one for you: notice how I brought up the theory and then pushed to lynch KK? Notice how I never mentioned the theory again in regards to lynching you? It was a wacked out theory, okay? Your reactions to it, however, were much more solid and easily observable.

I'm intending to do a KoTR-style post tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure you'll end up quoting it with a one line reply, heavy on the sarcasm, just as you've done the past few times.

I'm also pretty sure that if you actually are scum, Dr Ug just dug the town's grave, because the odds of me out-arguing him are almost zero.

[Not A Raptor]

Woo! Is it time for insulting now? Those pants make you look fat!

I don't believe I've presented any "wine evidence", that'd be the elephant in the room (who I won't name (it's infina)). I did have a wacky theory, which I presented upon request and proceeded to study your reaction to it. As Dr Ug noted, you've made a large number of posts like the previous one, defending, but not overdefending. Very measured. Very precise. Very... sarcastic? Also, very low in content.

Here's a fun one for you: notice how I brought up the theory and then pushed to lynch KK? Notice how I never mentioned the theory again in regards to lynching you? It was a wacked out theory, okay? Your reactions to it, however, were much more solid and easily observable.

I'm intending to do a KoTR-style post tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure you'll end up quoting it with a one line reply, heavy on the sarcasm, just as you've done the past few times.

I'm also pretty sure that if you actually are scum, Dr Ug just dug the town's grave, because the odds of me out-arguing him are almost zero.

Now there's an interesting post! I apologize about the wine evidence comment. I just got so worked in about what infina was doing that I had forgotten what you were actually doing. That leaves you with gut, but most of us are guilty of that now and then.

As for the stuff about the theory, your "I did it to test your reaction to it" seems suspiciously like "It was a plan all along!". I'm not about to pass judgment based on that, though. I just have one question:

Could you please tell me what KoTR stands for?

[Van]

Long and damaging.

I'd like to hear what judgement you could pass on poking at you and looking for scumtells.

[Not A Raptor]

The only judgment that could be made is that you could've let us know earlier... when you picked the attack up again nearer the start of D2. Unless I've missed a post in which you did just that. I don't think I have, though. I'd have come up with a sarcastic one-liner for the occasion.

[dotproduct]

I agree with Dr Ug here. I'm pretty sure that if NaR was scum, someone (not necessarily me) would have spotted a slip by now.

unvote

Must look at weiyaoli again.


Unofficial Votals:

2 dotproduct - Not A Raptor, weiyaoli
1 Felltir - mpolo
1 Not A Raptor - Van
1 weiyaoli - mister k
1 PheonixEnigma - _infina_

[frogman]

Has a Lataro replacement been found?

No. He will be modkilled at day end if no replacements are found. Unfortunately I don't see a lot of interest.

Modprods have been sent. I foresee a lot of modkilling ahead, unfortunately.

Surprise me, lurkers.

2 dotproduct - Not A Raptor, weiyaoli
1 Felltir - mpolo
1 Not A Raptor - Van
1 PheonixEnigma - _infina_
1 weiyaoli - mister k

[mpolo]

O.K., on re-reading, the Felltir-_infina_ "link" is really a nothing.

Unvote

On NotARaptor, my biggest point of suspicion was the way his _infina_ analysis was severely skewed. _Infina_ is still the scummiest for me, but a town analysis shouldn't resemble a kangaroo court. Unfortunately, I haven't seen anything else resembling a slip-up. On _infina_ there are a lot of little things, but these are also typical of his play to date. It's not all that unusual to see NaR be terse in his responses either, so I can't really read that either direction.

I have end of the year teachers' conference today, so I don't know if I'm getting back to this, but I'll try -- I'm not yet certain how free my morning will be.

[Dr Ug]

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

I...what?

Post 23: Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

Can you explain to me how it is possible to critique and analysis someone else did without even examining their points?

I seem to not be explaining myself here. I looked at his analysis, but didn't check he wasn't skipping posts by infina, and was largely basing whether I thought the analysis was legit off my memory of Infina's posts, rather than checking each one. I planned to do that when I analyse Infina. I think we're missing each others' points here...

I hope to get to Infina tomorrow, long day at work today.

[weiyaoli]

I just got back from a trip.

Content coming over the next few hours when I've read over the thread.

[jayhsu]

I read DL's and Weiyaoli's posts in infina. I largely agree with them, except I think I am pinging stronger scum on him than they are.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=280#p2240546

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=61404&start=240#p2235938

Maybe I shouldn't make myself such an easy target for scum. I might survive to day 3 without mod assistance then.

I later stated that I had missed it. Did you read the PE post? It was a a promise to deliver more in a day or two. PE has since failed to do so.
Dr Ug, the reason for my request has already been spelled out in one of my posts. Any analysis in which a person has a predicted outcome will be skewed toward that outcome. I can clear some of the wine I made if I make it to the night. I won't make it to a day 3 post, because it will help hide the scum behind more wine, but mine shall be cleared somewhat.

These posts in particular stand out to me. It's unnerving. He's strongly hinting at town power role, and that alone stays my hand.


Thus, I am going to

Vote: Mpolo

For reasons I've stated previously. This might be a hasty vote, but he is in no danger of lynching yet, and more importantly, I will probably be out of contact over the weekend.

[PhoenixEnigma]

OK, I'm back from two-ish weeks of hell work training, have a real computer, unfiltered tubes, and at least a little free time. Yay! It's time to stop lurking and enjoy the game!

I've only had a chance to re-read the past dozen or so posts at this point, but what I see is Dr Ug, NaR, and Van doing a little back and forth debating, but the initial impression I get is more town-with-different-ideas and less scum-and-townies-duking-it-out. All three are well experianced players, of course, so that's somewhat to be expected, I guess. I'd be somewhat opposed to a lynch of any of the three simply on the grounds that right now, that looks like the core of activity, and there seems to be a large number of other lurkers.

Weiyaoli and _infinia_ seem to be people of interest at the moment. Weiyaoli I'll need to re-read a bit on, it seems, as I don't recall anything on that front off the top of my head. _infinia_ is pinging me, but seems to be playing exactly like they normally do, and every game I've seen them in I've had that impression, so I'm fairly certain that's a false positive on the old scumdar 5000. Still keeping my eye on them, though.

Looking back at jayhsu's reasons for their vote, they seem a little unconvincing, but not fabricated. A little hard to put into context until I catch up on the context part, though.

[weiyaoli]

On weiyaoli. Is attacking infina. Now it could be that infina is scum, and its good to attack him, or that he's a terribly easy target for scum, in which case all these analyses don't prove much to me.

I don't think I've ever attacked infina... Where are you talking about?
I said that he was confusing and all over the place and that his first few posts were slightly pinging me but not enough to vote considering I didn't read all of his posts at that point.

I'll post my analysis when I get home in a few hours, this was something I caught that I need to address.

[weiyaoli]

Rest of D1 infinia analysis:

Spoiler:

Sorry, forgot to double-check the sign-ups. That is the only place you are listed though. It might be a good idea to get that changed. It was highly confusing.

Pretty neutral comment about keeneal as the vote counter. Nothing really relevant here.

Spoiler:

Okay, from what I know of d1's, we have the best chance of hitting scum by rolling a d20. We should just pick someone to lynch. The slower the game moves, then the number of lurkers will increase. I see no reason to change my vote, so it stays on TLC. I see no better choices, and wanting a nl is scummy.

Brings up the idea of random lynch. I'm not sure I buy his reasoning exactly, especially stating it is the best way to hit scum D1. Scummish reasoning.

Spoiler:

I guess I now have more time to pay attention to this game.
KK has made newbie mistakes. It is d1, there is not much to go by, except the few things in the flavor. KK actually requested a little help in learning the game. I say give her a pair of game days to learn, and then take another look.
When I have some more free time, I will try to condense what everyone has done so far into a a paragraph or so each, unless someone else is willing to do so.
Even though I am taking more of a wait and see approach on KK,

IGMEOY: KK

ninja'd
Good, I will hopefully be able to get a few more posts in before day's end.

Asking to lay off KK, scummish?? But also IGEMOYs KK as well. An example of his flippy floppy manner so far.

Spoiler:

I have gone through the first three pages thoroughly, and now have a list of who I think are the top 4 scummiest players. They are NaR, DP, TLC, and PE. NaR and TLC have been the most active with posting, but have little content. My stance on the KK lynch is a neutral one, I can see why some might want to lynch her, but I think it is general newbieness. I doubt I will be able to swing it to one of these four in time, so I guess the KK lynch shall go through. We have about 26 hours left. Maybe I should have narrowed the scope of my analysis. I think that is what I will do next time.

Not exactly a vote against KK and she isn't ranked very highly in terms of his scum rating but suspcion based on activity is fair I guess. Still seems convinced of NAR.

Spoiler:

*releases chirping crickets and returns to sleep*

*filler*

Conclusions on infinia D1:

Spoiler:

Flipflops about KK, although not enough for a link just yet. The thing with infinia D1 is that he took extreme stances or random views upon stratergy that was pretty confusing and didn't really follow through with anything. A slightly scummy D1 but I am not convinced that one of NAR and infinia must be scum reasoning that I've seen.

[mister k]

wei, I meant you were analysing infina, and indeed coming up with conclusions (based on first analysis), that he's a bit scummy. Infina is an easy target, and your lack of conclusions even easier to produce.

Eh, that said, I'm actually feeling an mpolo lynch at this point.

vote:mpolo

[mpolo]

Obviously, I'm not playing my role very well, since I've been accused by two people. I'm trying to do what I can to help find the people responsible for zombifying our beloved mayor, but real life keeps getting in the way. I keep hoping that I'm going to have some time to do something real. And then I don't have the time. Seriously, things should ease up in a couple of days…

My only real suspicion at the moment is _infina_, but I'm not convinced that it is the best move to try to lynch him. His winey style is liable to leave us with nothing usable even if he does turn out to be scum.

[Two-Fry]

It looks like D2 is starting to drag like D1 did, so I'm just going to go ahead and say that Infina's style does more harm than good, even if he does turn out to be town, I don't think lynching him is a bad move.
Vote: Infina

[frogman]

By the way, I'm currently searching for replacements to Felltir and Lataro.

Also, I'm gone all of next week and I'm searching for a substitute mod to call day end. Although at the pace we're going...

I like all of the discussion though.

2 dotproduct - Not A Raptor, weiyaoli
1 _infina_ - Two-Fry
2 mpolo - jayhsu, mister k
1 Not A Raptor - Van
1 PheonixEnigma - _infina_

[weiyaoli]

I think you mean mpolo 2.

[dotproduct]

I just finished looking over weiyaoli's posts, and the only thing I saw that was slightly suspicious was the what motivated my original FoS of (him?).
If I don't find anything else, that will get my vote, although I'm certainly going to try to find something better.

[weiyaoli]

Eh, that said, I'm actually feeling an mpolo lynch at this point.

vote:mpolo

What reason are there for this? It just seems a bit out of nowhere atm, since you gave no reason earlier against mpolo except for a mistaken thought that he did not vote during D1.

[Van]

Unvote

Okay, a little commentary on recent events first.

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

I...what?

Post 23: Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

Can you explain to me how it is possible to critique and analysis someone else did without even examining their points?

I seem to not be explaining myself here. I looked at his analysis, but didn't check he wasn't skipping posts by infina, and was largely basing whether I thought the analysis was legit off my memory of Infina's posts, rather than checking each one. I planned to do that when I analyse Infina. I think we're missing each others' points here...

I hope to get to Infina tomorrow, long day at work today.

Um, okay, this is my point:

You are Dr Ug. The Dr Ug. You are the analytical equivilent of a TV news program in that people will tune in just to see your opinion and then use that to decide how they vote. You are the one that had multiple requests for analysis during your sickness.

You just analyzed NAR, and did so only using his posts, you critiqued his analysis of someone else and declared it "logical enough" and agreed it without even checking it for accuracy, or checking the context. That is a major, major violation of the responsibility you wield. That's something I'd expect from Fox News, not from the Dr Ug Report.

I can see a few possible reasons for this:

1. You were just getting over a sickness, so perhaps you just rushed things.
2. You are intentionally attempting to paint NAR in a good light.
3. You make mistakes like this commonly and they just haven't been noticed yet.

#3 seems fairly unlikely, anecdotally and statistically. So, for now, I'm still
FoS: Dr Uging
instead of a vote, because you do have a potentially valid excuse.

So, with that out of the way, Van Productions is proud to present...

Not A Raptor
The man, the legend

NAR's global post history and this game's post history.


Meta analysis
Yeah, it's time for the big guns. Previous game posting history for NAR, excluding pre-game, confirms, and quotes. I also took the liberty of excluding turbo games, as those are a different breed. I also excluded JPMafia, as there were other unusual circumstances (he was caged for most of the game, and later replaced. Well, modkilled. Same thing!)

Data sources:
Frogzombie, 8 Bit, Discmafia, HP Mafia, Cuban Rev
Data (I hope you like CSV):

Spoiler:

GAME,Post Counts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Frogzombie (2 Days),60,100,40,30,941,35,352,258,16,9,9,335,59,45,55,0,14,52,18,23,40,77,24,19,61,40,39,6,18,78,300,51,121,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,V,,,,,F,,,,,F,,,,V, U,,,,,V,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
8 Bit (2 Days),48,31,43,533,32,40,10,110,55,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,VU,V,VU,,,v,,VF,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Discmafia (5 Days),3,45,2,19,20,37,3,25,22,32,23,19,27,126,118,238,33,47,21,43,178,44,92,67,158,25,17,448,159,2158,95,276,9,30,135,40,15,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,V,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,UF,V,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
HP Mafia (7 Days),37,20,222,22,23,8,54,23,22,77,145,18,77,20,10,12,10,31,65,83,86,33,39,10,16,50,36,39,56,60,65,67,123,95,51,18,23,35,52,35,28,14,15,24,97,80,24,27,25,14,10,6,45,11,9,19,7,10,67,196
,V,,,V,,,,,,,V,,,,,U,VU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,V,,U,VU,V,,,,,,,,,,,,,,F,,,,,,,
Cuban (3 Days),36,4,70,53,39,16,17,16,6,38,21,5,20,17,20,33,24,9,70,239,673,75,176,124,24,76,92,39,194,72,37,150,168,20,75,19,341,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,V,,,,,,U,,V,,,,,,,,V,,,,,U,,,V,,,,,V,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

In the event you choose to use this, I should mention that the data was collected in reverse order (e.g. I used the search function), so you'll need to flip it to use it properly.

This isn't as large of a sample size as I'd like, but I do have other things to do today, so 4+current will have to suffice. I'm totally considering writing a game parsing tool for this, though, if I ever end up with free time to waste Anyway.

There's one thing you should know before we dig into this, NAR had one unusual post in Discmafia. Specifically, he had a long post. 2158 characters to be exact, which is 2.29x his next highest post. To say the least, this throws off graphs quite a bit and is also very out of the usual for him, so I am "ignoring" that post, as far as word count. That is, the word count is discarded in any calculation. I know, I know, it hurts. Okay, observations.

1. NAR's post distribution is off kilter for this game.

Words per post, organized by game. With the exception of post #4 in this game, which was commentary on my joke post, his word-count thus far has been well below normal. If you're thinking "maybe it is because you've been pointing fingers at him all game", that's a good point, however, his first reply to my crazy theory was post #17, right under his gigantic spike in Cuban. Thus, it occured too late for it to be the reason behind his oddly small posts.

For a more direct comparison, his avg word/post count in the first 17 posts of the previous games was:
Frogzombie 57.24
8Bit 100.22
Discmafia 105.18
HP Mafia 39.47
Cuban 138.53

HP Mafia and Frogzombie being the obvious outliers; in HP Mafia a large amount of his D1 posting was either cracking HP jokes or saying how confused he was. He turned out to be town in HP Mafia, however he did have a fairly useful town power, which may've resulted in him playing cautious. Or maybe he was just busy.

2. NAR is playing more cautious than usual.

Code: Select all

GAME                   FOS   Vote   Unvote   Posts
Frogzombie (2 Days)    2     3      1        34
8 Bit (2 Days)         1     5      2        9
Discmafia (5 Days)     1     2      1        37
HP Mafia (7 Days)      0     7      4        60
Cuban (3 Days)         1     5      2        37


Despite having nearly already reached his average posts per game, NAR is still rather low in relation to his expected number of votes. He has also used FoS twice, which is a little out of the ordinary for him, but the timing that he used it at is extra unusual. In every other game, his usual 1 FoS was used within the first 10 posts he made. Frogzombie's were in posts 18 and 23.

3. NAR's vote-containing posts are larger than normal.
He's usually very brief in vote posts, with the global average wordcount in his posts containing coming in at a mere 44.72**, however the average for this game is 144. On a per game basis, every other one of his games wordcount in vote posts is under 55.

**This is, as I mentioned, not including his 2158 character discmafia post. With that, the average leaps to 155.95.


So, what does this tell us? To be truthful, not a particularly lot, though I'm beginning to think quite a bit about an automated mafia parser, or maintaining my own history database. I think with enough game samples, it'd be pretty easy to spot unusual trends, such as FoS history by post number (see #2), and attempting to make sure you're hiding everything is probably enough to give any scum an ulcer. And impossible.

I actually hadn't noticed NAR's FoS/voting abnormality (and I severely doubt anyone else had, either), but that strikes me as somewhat suspicious.

Post analysis

#1 Rolespec, town

Spoiler:

Three evil M.A.F.I.A. and three good M.A.F.I.A. plus a cult of frogzombies (indeterminate size, but probably two or three) seems to be the likely setup. I'm betting that we have at the least a cop, a roleblocker, and a doctor (who may also be part of the good M.A.F.I.A.), too. Maybe an inventor or vigilante, too. A cop and a doctor are standard roles in most games, and a roleblocker would be a useful balance against a cult's recruit. Also useful balances against it are vigilantes and inventors (in descending order of importance.). Beyond that, I have no clue what we're likely to run up against.

Role speculation is good, and pro-town. It may be worth noting that he is wrong about frogzombies, or it would at least seem so thus far (the frogzombies are listed as zombies and not playing).

He specified that the cult was probably two or three, which seemed odd at the time, all the cults I've seen started at 1 or 2.

It's not NAR specific, but the lack of a vig kill last night did have me scratching my head, but then again I was pretty much assuming frogzombies were a cult as well.

#2 EBWOP, neutral

Spoiler:

EBWOP: Well, the cult's obviously going to grow over time, so don't take my "two or three" without considering their recruits when you want to figure things out for later days. Also, we may have multiples of the same power role, my speculation is just about the bare minimum.

This is just a clarification, but it seems like a fairly needless clarification to me. Doesn't add anything new.

#3 Rolespec, mildly town

Spoiler:

Four in each M.A.F.I.A. is definitely a possibility if we take zombies=dead and done as fact. I'd also say that four in the good M.A.F.I.A. and three to the evil one is possible if there's a cult. However, the existence of a cult and a large evil M.A.F.I.A. are probably mutually exclusive in a game of this size.

Expanded rolespec, this time a bit more numerical. This is useful, but not particularly telling.

#4 Mudstirring and argument provoking, strong scum.

Spoiler:

This one will be a pain to comment on.

Well, I for one welcome our frogzombie overlords. Wat... I know it's probably a day one joke, but it could also be breadcrumbing. IGMEOY right there.

The next day the giant frog was missing, but instead there was a giant-frog-sized zombie wandering around. Wearing the mayor's hat.

Now, the folks in Frogville led simple lives, but they could put two and two together. Obviously, someone had turned the mayor into a frog, and then they turned that frog into a frogzombie.

This is perhaps the most gloriously logical assumption that has ever been made. Awesome. A less suspicious joke. This one was funnier.

Having said that, I seriously want some of what our mod is on. I can get you some... cash only. For review:
1. There are no frogs in the area
2. A frog appears
3. An elderly lady stomps on it until it dies
4. The mayor is noticed to be missing
5. Frog corpse begins growing
6. Murloczombie noises
7. Frogzombie with mayor's hat appears

My take on the flavor is that we're up against a cult of frogzombies, which turns people into frogs. If those frogs are NKed or lynched, they'll turn into zombies and join the cult proper. Makes sense. It's worth noting that these seem to be intelligent zombies, as the mayor apparently went to look for his hat. Ominous. This is pushing the interpretation of the flavor into strange territory where petunias float in mid-air by the power of this new logic of yours.

Now. Since we're just sitting around waiting for the zombies to come and feast on our.. what do frogzombies want, anyway? Well, whatever. Lynch target! You're going to be like "aw, Van, you can't seriously be proposing something yet", and that's where you'd be wrong. Where am I going with this? Finally, somebody's getting down to business.

Brooklynxman Oh, dear.

Games I have played with BXM in:
Cuban rev - BXM was scum, and was completely unsuspected up until the very end. If not for OP masons, it's very likely he would've won. Town win Strike one.
HP Mafia - BXM was scum, and in a game where town did really awesome at hunting down scum, he was the 6th scum to be lynched. Scum win Strike two.
MoA Project - BXM was scum and ran town into the ground (with the help of Dr Ug. curse you, Dr Ug!). Scum win. Strike three. You're OUTTA THERE!

His playing history means that if he is scum (which is extremely likely), it's almost certain that town will lose. BXM is clearly too dangerous to be left alive. Don't agree with me? Check out this snippet from our mod:

However, this was not the case and soon other people began disappearing. Other frogzombies began appearing around the same time. Because correlation implies causality, they [the townies, that's you] knew that the frogzombies must have been the missing people.

You, the townies, know that correlation implies causality. Therefore, the fact that BXM has been scum in all of my previous games ensures that he will be scum this game. *facepalm* One of the most important logical points that is hammered into people by those in the know in every debate on the internet (including in SB), is that CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION. For instance, there is very often a third factor that influences both and happens to be the cause. Or it's coincidental. In any case, I think it's the third factor option and that it is this: Brooklynxman is good at playing games of mafia. Thus, he is good at playing as scum. This means that him being anti-town would be very detrimental to us. However, that very same quality makes him invaluable to us as a townie. Essentially, you're saying that good players can't be trusted. When he is scum, he is difficult to pin down because he doesn't generally link himself to his team in any easy to see way. However, that same tactic is good as a mason, too. As there is around an even chance of him being on the evil or the mason M.A.F.I.A., I advise a little caution when dealing with him. (even though Brook and I had a mutual mafia grudge once upon a time)

Vote: BXM

(In the event you're still doubting this, I'll point out the "pick someone random D1 and attack them for semi-bogus reasons" worked and got a SK in Hospitalmafia. I have a 100% success record!)You need a longer track record before we start trusting you the way we trust Amy.

Your logic is total bull. See the underlined inserts in the quote for why.

I agree with Brook. Despite your first line, you are an excellent comedian.

Long. Blergh. Okay, first off his tone strikes me as a little off, as it did at the time. If you compare it to any of his other games (see my link above, etc), it's unusual for him.

What's more, he comments several times on knowing that it is intended as humor: "probably a D1 joke" "a less suspicious joke" "excellent comedian", and yet still treats it as if it needs to be dissected several times over.

He's very hostile towards my rolespec (e.g. his commentary on floating petunias), but this is largely because he either a) didn't read the mod's flavor, or b) did, but intentionally started an argument about it anyway.

From a scum's perspective, the exchange caused by this post of his is very useful, it takes up a lot of space and looks like he's doing something useful. Unfortunately, all he's actually done is attack humor, which he could say was simply a misunderstanding (but we know this isn't true, he clearly knew it was humor, and said as much), and misinformative rolespecl, which he could (and did) say was another misunderstanding.

#5 Commentary, minorly town

Spoiler:

What the hell, NAR? No underline-replying inside my quotes without at least buying me dinner first.

I feel so violated.

This is pushing the interpretation of the flavor into strange territory where petunias float in mid-air by the power of this new logic of yours.

The mayor was, apparently, turned into a frog. He didn't turn into a zombie until he was violently killed. How is my interpretation an especially unusual one?

Despite the fact that you just spent like, two paragraphs obviously setting up your "clearly, correlation DOES equal causation in this world of logicless townies (that's you!)" joke, I will now provide a detailed explanation in to how you are wrong.

I can only assume you did this because you either a) hate humor, and want it to die, in which case: mission accomplished, or b) are attempting to prevent any newbies from falling into the trap of mistaking humor for excellent logic (and probably also hate humor), in which case: mission accomplished. Jerk.

It was a lurker lynch, the little humorous post had no effect on the decision to do so.

Phbbt. If it had no effect, why did it have such an effect on the N1 title? (or was it D2? I forget.)

p.s. Lataro, it's she

Okay, fine. Same place as always? I'll buy.

Everything that happened to the mayor was behind the scenes. By the time we saw him again, he was a frogzombie. We never saw the intermediate "only-a-frog" mayor. I suppose it wasn't unusual, though. After all, the flavor itself is rather out there. (as you noted)

I don't hate humor and want it to die. I just think these exchanges are much more humorous. <3

Humor, and defense of his misrepresentation of flavor. I think this is a minor town tell, being willing to support his position. However, it's still blatantly wrong, and if it was a mistake, he obviously hadn't checked the flavor yet.

#6 Neutral to mildly scummy

Spoiler:

I must say, Van's sarcasm does tend to get missed, as I'm pretty sure it did here. (see this post in Amy's Surprise). NaR, you can have a penalty card. Pretty sure the BXM was vote was entirely to generate discussion. I am nowhere near ready to vote Van or BXM.

Everything that happened to the mayor was behind the scenes. By the time we saw him again, he was a frogzombie. We never saw the intermediate "only-a-frog" mayor. I suppose it wasn't unusual, though. After all, the flavor itself is rather out there. (as you noted)

This is just plainly wrong - we saw the bullfrog a lot before he was killed and turned into a frogzombie... Not really sure what you're getting at there...

FoS: NaR

I'm bad at internet sarcasm. >.< Also, the bullfrog was the mayor? Sweet shit, I must be tired.

Okay, here's an excuse for him missing the flavor. It's not outside the realm of possibility, okay, but what about internet sarcasm? He spent the entire time joking back with me, so I think it's pretty clear he got it.

#7 Neutral, mildly town

Spoiler:

Oh, duh.

Obviously, someone had turned the mayor into a frog, and then they turned that frog into a frogzombie.

Missed that bit entirely.

Posted just after #6, it would appear that he had just examined the flavor and realized his mistake.

#8 Indeterminate

Spoiler:

I'd be willing to get rid of him (tastelikecoke) just for the reason that it's less wine we need to mop up later.

Also, I'm sorry for jumping at your (currently looking valid) flavor speculation, Van.

Admitting mistake, again. I find his TLC comment to be more interesting, here's what he's willing to "get rid of" due to wine:

Let's vote! I want progress! I want progress fast!
IGMEOY: Van
FoS: Van
Vote: Van

Thoughts?

I think that was what I was trying to say in my first post. I think it makes sense to have a Necromancer in a game full of zombies.

TLC's other posts were random frognoises and rolespec. It's possible he was on edge from zerker in other games, or possibly even from TLC in other games, but I think "getting rid of him" for this is a little much. This could go two ways:

Scum looking for easy lynch
Townie not wanting to deal with wine

I don't think it's possible to refine that any further, yet.

#9 Looking rather scummy

Spoiler:

And... there is no stopping the confusion from TLC. I'd almost say he's a jester, but he also happens to be inexperienced in the zerker way.

Vote: TLC

We don't need this confusion later in the game.

Okay, he's stepping it up a bit. We need to look at what TLC said in the meantime, though.

Fine, I will clean up my mud.

unIGMEOY
unFoS
Unvote

I dont get what correlation and causation have to do with BXM, Van's just meta-gaming here.

It's supposed to be a joke anyway, but I just remembered that in Mafia, there is no joke.

Off to an analysis:

The next day the giant frog was missing, but instead there was a giant-frog-sized zombie wandering around. Wearing the mayor's hat.

Now, the folks in Frogville led simple lives, but they could put two and two together. Obviously, someone had turned the mayor into a frog, and then they turned that frog into a frogzombie.

I also missed the "someone had turned the mayor into a frog, and then they turned that frog into a frogzombie." part. So someone is turning people into frogs, then turning frogs into frogzombies.

maybe the frogzombies turn frogs into frogzombies, but if that was supposed to be, wouldn't townies be able to distinguish zombies from non-zombies? I think that means frogzombies are merely dead people.

Maybe the mafia, the evil one, turns people into frogs, then since they bow down to the frogzombie overlords they must be somehow transforming this town turned frog into a frogzombie.

So, Mafia, the evil one, NKs people into frogs, Where frogzombies turn them into full fled frogzombies.
In the basic form, this means Mafia can NK people during night, and then Town tries to lynch Mafia first.

His 3 posts. #1 isn't particularly scummy or neutral, #2 is defense, and #3 is... actually valid rolespec. It's worth noting that TLC has been correct thus far about frogzombie outcomes. This may or may not mean he has inside information, but back to the point: this post is perfectly valid, except for his weird-ass ending line.

And then NAR calls jester on it. Perhaps he spent as much time reading this as he did the opening flavor, but that is really starting to look to me as if he was looking for an easy bandwagon target.

#10 Confusing. Not directly scum, but muddying, so scumish

Spoiler:

Only two or three people said I pinged them. I'd hardly call that "everybody".

And now that I've acknowledged that some people think I am, I should address that with my opinion of it. *ahem*

It's mostly wine and dislike of how I was too direct with my opinion. Doesn't seem too serious a charge to me.

This is in reply to:

About RoadieRich's post:
It pings me that he wagons with everyone the NaR is scummy. He might as well just said "Yes I agree too!" or "This post generally agrees with everyone."

About Infina's vote:
It's not enough for a vote however, Besides, He's probably just busy modding another game ( [Experimental Mini] Life and Death: Constitutional Democracy in Mafia ). infina's vote is too hasty, like always.

NAR's reply just confuses me here. He's replying to TLC, but TLC is saying that RR is pinging him for essentially just agreeing with NAR. He then brings up the first mention of wine. What wine?

He also misrepresents the arguments that had been made against him, strength in opinion was never one of them, having that opinion at all was.

#11 Mildly scumish

Spoiler:

Unless somebody blocked my vote, that is. Knowing so little about the game setup re: powers, it's possible.

This is in reply to the previous two posts, keeneal's votals, and TLC's confusion over the (mistaken) count. As Dr Ug noted in his analysis, keeneal corrected his counts 4 minutes later, however, this post will be important later.

This is something of a detour, but it's worth noting that Dr Ug stated in his analysis that this was a "meaningless post", further commenting on NAR's next post (sorry!)

Suggesting bastardry can be a scum tactic, (although I often see it where it's not there and suggest it, even as town), so again he hasn't made use of an opportunity to do something scummy -> mildly towny.

Suggesting bastard moddery is scummy, okay. Suggesting that an unexpected vote count is player related isn't? A pro-town action would've been to ask if votals were correct.

#12 Neutral, mild scum leaning

Spoiler:

So, infina voted RoadieRIch. I complained that it is a bad idea, so he votes for me.

Goddamn karma.

I dont know how will I defend myself now. I request however that you please warn me If I am going to get lynched soon.

6 votes until the lynch. It'll probably be a while, if at all. You may yet prove yourself to be something better than a source of wine. At the least, this post doesn't seem to have too much of it. One data point in, oh... how many posts have you made in this thread so far? *checks*

At least nine. Yeah, one in nine is still a poor show. Then again, it's day one.

This is a misrepresentation of TLC, for the reasons I noted in #9. I'll admit that TLC is playing dubiously here, especially with his request.

#13 I'd say "my opinion is this is scummy", but stating that it's my opinion is stating the obvious. So, scummy.

Spoiler:

I'm going to have to agree with the KrazierKate crowd: that vote did seem like inexperienced scum hopping on a bandwagon..

Good news, KK. We have a better idea. Bad news (for you): It's you.

Unvote

Vote: KrazierKate

I found this odd, for reasons I explained in fairly huge detail here, which I'm omitting because ain't no one gonna read this anyway.

#14 Town

Spoiler:

Townie how? Looks more like track covering to me. How often have you seen the "When I come up as town..." argument before?

This is replying to

I thought we had a good lynch target for D1, alas KK has acted townie of late.

Unvote

Square 1.

Here, NAR is disagreeing with someone that was probably town, saying that someone who turned out to be scum was actually scummy.

#14 Slightly town, slightly scum

Spoiler:

We'd like to hear your theory, I think. (Unless it pegs people as town powers, of course.)

He wants to hear my theory. Which is actually about him. Okay! This is vaguely town, except his "town powers" comment, which bugged me.

#15 Scummy

Spoiler:

... Well, I asked. :p

I think you expect too much of everybody on day one. Especially me, of all people. The guy whose miserable playstyle gets him lynched, killed, or rendered useless more often than not. (Just see Discmafia if you want confirmation of its continuation. Forced to claim in that one.)

His reply to my theory. This is the first of his me-defense posts, in which he doesn't address anything I said, and usually goes for "woe is me" instead. Miserable playstyle? See: Life and Death. That'd be bullshit, sorry.

#16 Scummy

Spoiler:

I don't think it's really a term. If you're familiar with "bussing", e.g. throwing someone under the bus (the town, in this case) to save yourself, I was trying to indicate it only being done partially. That is, not pushed hard to the point of a lynch.

And as for what is scumtells, well.

Things that are scumtells:

Posting (anything)
Not Posting

FoS: Van

For muddying the waters by suggesting that everything is a scumtell. (kidding!)

Contentless.

To be continued...

[Van]

Not A Raptor
The man, the legend, the conclusion

#17 Scummy

Spoiler:

FOS: Two-fry, TLC

Two-fry hasn't even been in the game that long. You have even LESS of a reason to be complaining.

At the time, this was confusing people, so... If you don't follow FAID here, "I fucking love ponies", usually shortened to "pwnies" is a way of stating agreement. A confusing and needlessly obtuse one. NAR and I will clash later over this, in my opinion, contentless post.

#18 Scummy

Spoiler:

<soapbox> On the other hand, that's a pretty stupid ploy for scum. In the townie inquisition, the chief weapon against scum is communication. Communication and honesty. Plentiful, open, honest communication. If everyone is actively participating, analyzing, and giving their opinions from D1, it is so much harder for scum to hide. But people do not participate equally. They (even townies!) lurk for days, or post contentless posts consisting of pictures of stuffed animals. When people do things like this, it removes our tools. How can we tell if someone is active lurking when they don't usually participate? And so we get pwned. Or have 3 week long D1s...

I get the distinct feeling you don't care much for me. Yeah, I went right for you in one of my first posts. I apologized, right? Everybody accuses everybody eventually. If you're letting that color your perceptions... tch.

Besides, it was a post of agreement. Knowing who agrees with who is, indeed, content.

The first line sets me up as just chasing after him because he attacked me at the start of the game, smooth.

Then he comments on it being an agreement. Okay, here's the deal: FAID is a fad. Unless you read it, you're not going to know what pwnies means, and I'd wager that half the posters here don't know what it means. Stating your opinion in a fashion that other people are unable to understand is not content.

#19 Scummy, again

Spoiler:

I have gone through the first three pages thoroughly, and now have a list of who I think are the top 4 scummiest players. They are NaR, DP, TLC, and PE. NaR and TLC have been the most active with posting, but have little content. My stance on the KK lynch is a neutral one, I can see why some might want to lynch her, but I think it is general newbieness. I doubt I will be able to swing it to one of these four in time, so I guess the KK lynch shall go through. We have about 26 hours left. Maybe I should have narrowed the scope of my analysis. I think that is what I will do next time.

With respect, it's day one and I got all of my rolespec done quickly. Any other content consists of fingerpointing at this stage, and we've all done plenty of that. I can't see how you can accuse me of having minimal content.

Tangentially, I largely agree with infina here.

NAR is correct in that he got his rolespec out of the way quickly, it was over by his third post. He then brings up fingerpointing, obtusely dismissing my commentary on him again. Minimal content? I realize you're all asleep by this point, but go read his post history! He doesn't actually add any content.

#20 Slightly town, slightly scum

Spoiler:

My hypothesis as to why the frogzombies are separated and there is a rule regulating the reading of spoilers for those who have been zombified is that there is possibly a dezombifying agent present in this game that has yet to use his powers. This is good because it is (effectively) a resurrector. If you exist, do not claim!

Rolespec at the start of D2. Not entirely unuseful, but, again he does the "I am townie because I am giving obvious suggestions" thing; see #14

#21 Strong scum

Spoiler:

Post #21, and NAR's first decent content. Okay, let's look at this in detail.

Dr Ug, would you make one of those analysis posts I hear you do on NaR please, I want to be able to place my finger on what it is that strikes me as scummy about him, other than the BXM being turned into a frogzombie thing.

How about this:

Both MAFIA have a kill.

Is this a statement of fact, or is it a guess. If the Masons have a kill, I would think it would be a kill, not make a frogzombie, because they hate the frogzombies.
Well, in any case, I have a feeling you are town. My big twinges are still TLC and NaR. What it is about them exactly I cannot tell. Although with BXM a frogzombie, I am starting to suspect Van. That might have been the Mysterious Association of Frogzombie Instigation Advocates trying to frame Van, which makes me suspect NaR even more. I shall hold my vote for now, until the some of the rest of the town can weigh in on this.

FoS: NaR

What are your reasons for suspecting NAR and for that matter Van?

Van was the only one to go after BXM, and NaR went after her. NaR would want to frame Van if he was scum.

While that would be possible, it's also possible and (statistically speaking) far more likely that BxM was killed because he has a reputation of being good at playing mafia. Indeed, as there were two kills over the night, there's no real reason to assume that the BxM kill was the mafia's at all! If there exists a SK, hitting BxM would be the optimal move for him. It offers two choices of people to frame (Van and I), and can easily be blamed on somebody else. Personally, I would welcome one of Dr Ug's analyses right about now. It might dispel some falsehoods.

I've just realized, though, that I don't exactly have a good read on infinia. Far from being a lurker, his posts have been scattered throughout the thread. Some jive well, and some do not. I'll make a few notes right now.

1- He has suspected the same people since at least page 3.
2- He spilled the wine (as pointed out by felltir) on page 3.
3- Was terse when talking about RR, after he voted for him. Not much reason given. Then again, he was a lurker at the time.
4- At the end of page three, suggested that something wasn't right and hopped on the TLC lynchwagon.
5- Was mistaken about whether players were in the game or not (deficit of information and correction, or excuse to post little content?)
6- Suggested a random lynch on page 4. What the hell? Oh, this was the post before the first vote was laid on KK as well.
7- On page 5, admitted not paying much attention to the game, placed an IGMEOY on KK. Scum waiting to see if the lynch was going to happen?
8- On page 6, came up with a list of four players he thought was scummy. Gave reasons for two. This is one of the few townish tells I got.

I must say, I don't think I can trust him at the moment.

FoS: -infina-

In hindsight, I should've done his most recent posts firsts, as I am getting rather tired by this point. Going to try and make sure I get everything, though, so, his notes are numbered, my addition.

1. He has suspected the same people since at least page 3.

   I would like to see how TLC would play as mafia, and for all we know, he might be one. It would be good for future reference.
   Van, your cunning use of the flavor perturbs me, to this I say #552. You are obviously using the flavor for your BXM argument. The townies "know" correlation equals causation, but this seems like a scum trick to appear town in the beginning.
   Van and NaR are most likely either both pro-town or both anti-town. I would highly doubt one of them being pro-town and the other anti-town. Scum arguing is a great way for them to distance themselves, giving a greater chance of winning in the end.
   IGMEOY:NaR

   Incorrect, or at least misrepresented; infina made this post on page 3, by page 6 he had expanded his suspicions to include TLC and PE. Finding the same people scummy all game is not a scumtell by any means.
   
2. He spilled the wine (as pointed out by felltir) on page 3. Truthful; Actual post here, though I'll point out I agree with mpolo here:

   I think that _infina_ was trying to raise a valid point (often the two people at each other's throats on day one are both town), but then proceeded to stir up a lot of wine.

   
   
3. Was terse when talking about RR, after he voted for him. Not much reason given. Then again, he was a lurker at the time. Truth; source.
   
4. At the end of page three, suggested that something wasn't right and hopped on the TLC lynchwagon. Truth; source. This is related to #5.
   
5. Was mistaken about whether players were in the game or not (deficit of information and correction, or excuse to post little content?) False, and strongly appears to be scummy entrapment.
   
   The conversation begins here, with keeneal's votal accident.
   TLC comments on it being a mistake.
   NAR makes post #11, suggesting it was blocked
   infina notices, is confused, switches vote to TLC <- This is what NAR is specifically talking about
   NAR makes post #12, saying it likely isn't a bastard mod game
   keeneal explains and fixes the mistake.
   
   To sum up: NAR, after he himself completely failed to read the opening flavor, went after infina for a perfectly logical bit of confusion over the votals. I have a very hard time believing he didn't notice or didn't remember, as he posted immediately before and after infina. Nice try at a setup, NAR!
   
6. Suggested a random lynch on page 4. What the hell? Oh, this was the post before the first vote was laid on KK as well.Semi accurate; Here's what infina said:
   

   Okay, from what I know of d1's, we have the best chance of hitting scum by rolling a d20. We should just pick someone to lynch. The slower the game moves, then the number of lurkers will increase. I see no reason to change my vote, so it stays on TLC. I see no better choices, and wanting a nl is scummy.

   First off, it's the post before the FoS on KK, the first vote was the 3rd post. That's a nitpick though, infina did actually suggest a random lynch. I would agree that is a scumtell, though I could also see a newbie thinking it was essentially random.
   
7. On page 5, admitted not paying much attention to the game, placed an IGMEOY on KK. Scum waiting to see if the lynch was going to happen? Source. Truthful, and I happen to agree.
   
8. On page 6, came up with a list of four players he thought was scummy. Gave reasons for two. This is one of the few townish tells I got. Source. Truthful. He had previously commented on TLC (and voted for him), so that may've warranted a mention, but that's just nitpicking.

Hoo! That's long. In short: If NAR had posted this on its own, or if he had omitted #5, it would not be half as suspicious. As it is, it's a pretty strong scumtell.

#22 Neutral/mild town

Spoiler:

I don't see why infina concluded that NaR is scum, Van only joketelled BxM, I don't suspect Van because of that. Neither would I suggest a complicated reason that Van is framed by NaR. infina's already assuming NaR is scummy.

Infina has always bugged me a lot, lynching random people at D1, then saying "I am testing you" and bandwagons. I wouldn't doubt this is another one of his "tests."

NaR on the other hand, has been joking around with Van in D1. We have no information whether BxM is scum or not, So we can't tell if NaR was framing Van for Nking town or scum. Infina's suggestion isn't likely in the first place.

Are you saying that he's not even wrong?

It's an obscure way of getting his point across.

#23 Neutral/town

Spoiler:

You see Van, it is the fact that it would look ridiculous for NaR to NK BXM that it is the exact reason I suspect him. It is a sort of think that is like "how can I seem so suspicious to not be suspicious" kind of thinking. To go through my logic, I had to first suspect you, and then go to NaR's attack on you for your vote. Quite simple, at least it seems so to me.
Vote: NaR

Except that now you're reasoning based on wine.

While this is correct, and infina's logic is bad, here's a oneliner.

#24 Neutral (on it's own), scummy (in combination)

Spoiler:

Has nobody here heard of Occam's Razor? People think I'm far too devious.

He's replying to dp's accusation and vote on the previous page. With another oneliner. He's not overdefending, as Dr Ug later notes, but he's not defending at all. Any time someone has accused him of something this game, he's just casually disregarded it with a short, dismissive comment.

#25 Some town, mostly scummy

Spoiler:

TLC: It's easy to see scum tells everywhere when you've already made up your mind.

- ON VOTING THIRD:

That is an old shibboleth. If you'd played games between a year to a few months ago, you'd have heard people saying "Lynch the third voter!" in nearly every game. As this became a prolific scum tell, it became unreliable. There's too much wine surrounding the third vote now, as the experienced players here are aware of the back and forth mindscrew involved.

- ON DISTANCING:

Or maybe KK was a newbie who played badly. A lot of people get lynched for that. Why, how many times had Zerker got lynched on day one before people finally started looking for other ways to deal with him?

- ABOUT VAN AND BXM:

That argument distills into wine. If the most you can say is "I know he knows I know... etc.", you may as well just say "I don't trust him, it's my gut speaking."

- ABOUT ANALYSIS:

Isn't most analysis just a few sentences about each post? Isn't most analysis tainted by one's own biases? Perhaps I was seeing _infina_ in a bad light because he was pushing hard on me. Wouldn't you do the same? I suppose the best thing you can do is to avoid trusting analyses made under duress.


As for dotproduct, your reasons are partially dependent on your thoughts about me. However, about half of it is worth merit. I'll take a look at him later.

On voting third: he finally responds to someone's commentary on him, the most simplistic and obvious accusation possible. One he could shoot down easily. It's like doing the reverse strawman, waiting for someone else to set up an arguement you can easily attack and ignoring the rest.


About analysis: "You can't blame me, I was under horrible duress from being attacked by infina!" As Dr Ug will later note, seeing how people react when under stress is very valuable. There's a difference between deflection and what you did to infina, though.

#26 Town, maybe scum undertones

Spoiler:

I said I'd look at him, so here we go.

A summary of dotproduct's actions:
Page two:
1- Agrees with PE about recruiting masons possibility, conjures a possible role (survivor fly), supposes that most roles are standard. This post is standard d1 fare, short though it may be.
Page three:
2- Votes for TLC in a short post that just agrees with what was said about wine before and complains about one of TLC's more useless posts. Seems a bit like bandwagon jumping, but it was early in d1 without much to analyze, so a short post is possibly forgivable. However, some meat could definitely have been added to that post. Neutralish.
Page five:
3- Responds to a modprod (lurking), doesn't like the KK lynch (which turned out to be a success: we hit scum), asked Brook about something Brook did (could simply be townie gathering information about people, but could also be scum fishing for a cop role), wine for the wine theory... This post makes more sense if he's scum. However, I would think that scum, being a bit more interested in the game due to having more knowledge, would be more active. Still, more scummy than towny.
Page seven:
4- Makes a poor excuse for lurking ("I forgot"), looks at a post of mine and accuses me of highlighting the worst of _infina_ to look like I was posting content, votes for me, thinks mister k's thoughts on weiyoli merits investigation. The post is terse for somebody who is just jumping in to vote for somebody without having given an opinion on his other posts. Seems like pure bandwagoning. Not very flattering.

This is the whole of his post history. What little he's done has been either scummy or something that most people do in games. It seems pretty damning to me.

Vote: dotproduct

I could be convinced to change my mind if he comes here with a good reason for his lurking and the reason could explain the lack of content in what posts he has made. That reason would have to be convincing, though.

NAR analyzes dp. It is worth mentioning that I think both of them are scum, and it's very convienent distancing going on that they both just happened to analyze and vote for eachother in the span of half a page. My numbering again.

1. Source; Accurate. Technically, that's probably all I should put, but he described everything dp did in that post, and the result is a summary that is almost as long as the original post (30 vs 53 words). Padding, or possibly just detailed.
2. Source; ...Accurate? Ish?. 62 words to describe a 34 word post (if you count the quote). He may have just inferred that dp was agreeing, but dp did not specifically ay he agreed about the wine.
3. Source; This is more of a negative light on dp, but he largely glosses over the wine dp spilled there, where he'd previously been rather hostile to it (See: his actions vs TLC). Also, scum don't particularly always end up posting more, see: active lurking, or Rakysh in Cuban, etc.
4. Source; Accurate. mister k's thoughts on weiyawesome amount to "he didn't commit to anything D1", which was true.

He then concludes. Overall, it seems like a fairly accurate description, though he did change his tune at #3. Distancing? Changed opinion to "you suck, I'mma bus you"? He does leave it rather flimsy, specifically saying that he could change his mind and unvote, and then telling dp how to get him to do it.

#27 Neutral, leanings both way

Spoiler:

Welp, reread most of the thread today. The 3 scummiest in my opinion are
1. NaR, for reasons hashed out ad nauseum already
2. DotProduct, for trying to spill Van's wine back on page 5
3. Infina, for pushing so hard on NaR

IMO, we lynch NaR. If he turns up scum, Infina is probably town, and we move on to DP. If he turns up town, Infina looks more scummy, and moves up past DP on the scuminess rankings
Vote: Not A Raptor
FOS: DotProduct
FOS: _Infina_

The reasons hashed out ad nauseam amount to wine and defense.

If I don't defend, I'm lynched. If I do defend, I'm... lynched? Sounds like people just really want to lynch me!

Once more, he plays up the wine and does a terse defense post. See #23, #24

#28 Town

Spoiler:

I'm interested in mpolo voting feltir rather than infina. Certainly theres some loose connection there, but maybe not enough, and everything infina does apparently pings mpolo? So why not vote infina? I get the lurking argument a little, but feltir feels more blameless to me. Could this be scum wanting to keep the most wine covered player alive? Eh, definitely pings there.

I meant to ask NaR exactly this question in my TL;DR summary - NaR seems to find Infina the scummiest for most of the second half of the game so far, and yet he voted DP. Why?

That's because I don't know what to make of infina in a metagaming sense. Is he usually like this? Is he a newbie? (the answer to that one appears to be yes.) Should the threshold for evidence be raised for newbies? (I would like to think so.)

If infina makes a few mistakes that relate to something other than what people think of me, I would definitely switch my vote. Until that happens (or somebody else makes an inexcusable error), I think that DP is the best target.

Isn't most analysis just a few sentences about each post? Isn't most analysis tainted by one's own biases? Perhaps I was seeing _infina_ in a bad light because he was pushing hard on me. Wouldn't you do the same? I suppose the best thing you can do is to avoid trusting analyses made under duress.

Well, okay. Now that Dr Ug has saved you from being lynched, perhaps you can analyze some people. Maybe you could give us your take on weiyargyle's strange cold feet on D1, or comment on some of the many lurkers, or examine and see if mpolo's early "scum helping" is enough to make him lynchworthy. I mean, now that you're not busy drafting one-liners to defend yourself, you're going to have a lot more free time. For serious, just pick someone that isn't attacking you and go nuts. iirc, if you rule out me, infina, and yourself, that still leaves 15 players, plenty o'variety to choose from.

I think that's an excellent idea, though it could've been served up with less sauce.

ANALYSIS OF JAYSHU:
Page two:
- Likes my rolespec, obvious summary of how doctors and cops play, wonders about a doctor-specific situation, hopes the situation doesn't result in a culted doctor, thinks it's likely. Standard day one speculation. Town, scum, and independents alike do this. Neutral.
- Agrees with the rolespec surrounding necromancers/resurrectors because of spoiler reading restriction. Same sort of non-ping as last post.
Page three:
- Refers to another game in which TLC acted stupid, doesn't like the idea of lynching him. Wants a modprod on a lurker. Declares the rolespeculation phase of D1 to be over. He a quick opinion with a pointer to supporting evidence and thinks that people are about to start accusing each other. Seems like an easy post to make, but it's made to prevent a lynch that might have occurred easily if circumstances had been slightly different. I'm inclined to think that this is townish behavior.
Page four:
- Homes in on KK's "I'll lurk moar" statement. Likes the Van reference and thinks he's new enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Doesn't have confidence in scumdars, disapproves of KK's vote. Hopes a cop will investigate KK. Asks that reasons be supplied for votes. Seems like the post leans toward town, but not strongly. I've seen some impressive scumdars in my time. Also, the newness-as-excuse was, in retrospect, not terribly valid.
- Doubts TLC's assessment, refers again to Transformafia. I get that jayshu is cautious, but this seems like an unnecessary restatement. Of course, if KK had turned up town, I'd think it was a wise observation, so YMMV. Neutral.
Page five:
- Agrees with Van about his assessment in a lukewarm way, wary of lynching on day one, thinks that they're just goof-ups that get exaggerated, promises a reread of the thread, professes a bad D1 lynch track record and waits with bated breath for D2 information revealed by roles. This seems to hold two obvious statements (regarding D1 lynches being exaggerated and his own bad luck on D1 (which many of us tend to share)), an opinion given without reasons, and a self-characterization. Seems neutral, but an easy post to make.
Page seven:
- Apologizes for being too busy to post, was surprised by the outcome of the KK lynch, makes a comparison to TLC to make his own actions seem a little more reasonable, is now suspicious of TLC due to hypocrisy, reasoning based on order of action, disdain for latecomers to the KK wagon based on obvious speculation as to how scum acts, waits for the mod's response to "was a simple majority enough for a lynch ("was mpolo's vote necessary" is the object of that question). There are a few things going on in this post. A few things can be interpreted to be scummish: the comparison, the order of action resoning, and the apology. One is something smart scum might do, the other two are common scum actions. But there are a few other things that could be towny: the comparison, the suspicion of TLC, and the question to the mod. The comparison and suspicion of TLC could be linked to start a vote on TLC, and the question to the mod could be a valid justification for the obvious reasoning. However, TLC could be town, in which case, the comparison and suspicion of TLC could be, if seen as a sequence, scummy... and the comparison on its own as more townish. My gut says this post is leaning scummy, but an assessment of neutral is also reasonable.
Page eight:
- Is divided on his opinion of me, though he is warm to my DP analysis, will read more, watching mpolo and TLC, suspects TLC the more he thinks. Short, but townish. He hasn't radically altered his opinion of TLC and mpolo from the prior page and is displaying characteristic caution in reserving his opinion of me.
- Makes a correction to his last post. Neutral.
Page nine:
- A post-by-post analysis of mpolo and TLC, italicizes for effect in TLC's examination, is less sure of his opinions, thinks TLC is bad town that the mafia is leaving around to confuse, doesn't know what to think of infina and felltir, understands the reasoning behind a DP lynch, wants to vote for mpolo because the hammer rubs him wrong, promises to read up on infina, felltir, and DP. Leans town, in my opinion. Seems to be doing a sweep through each person's posts and analyzing them one by one. Changed his mind about TLC, but suggests a scum plot to confuse us in its place. Should TLC come up scum in any future report, this would backfire as the suggestion of such a plot could preclude a lynch of TLC. Otherwise, it is excellent speculation on his part. I'm reading a bias against hammerers into this post, but that might just be because of circumstances.

Overall, the town pings are more numerous and stronger than the scum pings. I'm confident that Jayshu is town.

Ninja'd: If you'll look through my posts again, you'll see that I did second somebody's request for an analysis (I'm unsure now if it was you or Van). Just sayin'.

He analyzes Jayhsu. I commented on this at the time, but I found it a little strange he picked someone who really hadn't been under any spotlights, instead of examining one of the other lynch potentials (say, TLC), but eh.

I'm not doing a detailed analysis of this because it is actually rather accurate. The only things I would point out are: he's not as verbose in describing short posts as he was with dp, and his commentary on the first post of P7 is just.. weird. I'm not sure if he just worded it really poorly or not, but I have a horrible time understanding exactly what he's trying to say there.

#29 Neutral, scummish for lack of content that deep in the game

Spoiler:

And by ninja'd, I mean, your post interrupted my posting my post, so I added a response to your post before proceeding to post. I like the word "post".

He posts to say he had pre-edited his post so he wouldn't need to EBWOP. Um, okay.

#30 Neutral

Spoiler:

It is true that I didn't cross-reference infina's posts (thus my stated intention to look at infina next, partly in order to do just that). I'm sorry, I'm not sure what the point I've missed is.

I...what?

Post 23: Seconds Infina's request to perform this analysis I'm currently doing. Analyses infina and FoS's. The analysis seems logical enough, and at the moment I think I agree with the conclusion (As I said earlier, I think I need to take another look at Infina). Infina's request for me to analyse NaR could be scum hoping for someone else to start a 'wagon on a towny, and seems like an excuse to avoid posting content by doing the analysis yourself (and potentially giving away a 'tell). Towny post.

Can you explain to me how it is possible to critique and analysis someone else did without even examining their points?

As for my spelling of towny/ie, I think I use -ie when I'm thinking of it as a noun, and -y when I'm thinking of it as an adjective, but it may also just be random.

Um, it wasn't a commentary on your spelling, it was a commentary on your logic.

I think that DP is the best target.

Man, if only it was as easy to convince you that you should vote for yourself I am totally down for lynching dp, as I'm pretty sure you'll still be around tomorrow, though I suppose you could prove me wrong. And NK yourself. Scum.

Oh god, I just realized that this may not even be settled by death. If I get NKed, I can't read spoilers, and if you get NKed, I may not know if you're scum or not until after the game ends cuz' of frogzombies. So unfair!

Well, since all you have is wine evidence and an iron gut, flailing as you are may be the best course of action. It's not very dignified, but it might allow you to pursue targets that are actually scummy.

Cool. So he quotes my entire post to reply oneliner replyagain and just bring up wine. The fact that he didn't just quote the bit directed at him could be post size inflation, or it could just be annoying.

#31 Neutral, some scum and some town

Spoiler:

Woo! Is it time for insulting now? Those pants make you look fat!

I don't believe I've presented any "wine evidence", that'd be the elephant in the room (who I won't name (it's infina)). I did have a wacky theory, which I presented upon request and proceeded to study your reaction to it. As Dr Ug noted, you've made a large number of posts like the previous one, defending, but not overdefending. Very measured. Very precise. Very... sarcastic? Also, very low in content.

Here's a fun one for you: notice how I brought up the theory and then pushed to lynch KK? Notice how I never mentioned the theory again in regards to lynching you? It was a wacked out theory, okay? Your reactions to it, however, were much more solid and easily observable.

I'm intending to do a KoTR-style post tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure you'll end up quoting it with a one line reply, heavy on the sarcasm, just as you've done the past few times.

I'm also pretty sure that if you actually are scum, Dr Ug just dug the town's grave, because the odds of me out-arguing him are almost zero.

Now there's an interesting post! I apologize about the wine evidence comment. I just got so worked in about what infina was doing that I had forgotten what you were actually doing. That leaves you with gut, but most of us are guilty of that now and then.

As for the stuff about the theory, your "I did it to test your reaction to it" seems suspiciously like "It was a plan all along!". I'm not about to pass judgment based on that, though. I just have one question:

Could you please tell me what KoTR stands for?

It's an "interesting post" apparently. He apologizes for the wine comment, which was not the first he'd made. He says it "leaves me with gut, but most of us are guilty of that now and then", which seems to me to be a dismissive framing around anything I say. Oh, she's just got a gut feeling. Um, isn't anything in mafia short of a cop going to be "gut feeling"? As a general rule, scum do not say, claim, and remove the need for hunches.

He doesn't seem to like setups, which I'll admit is a valid viewpoint, though I'm curious how he would suggest doing it differently? Announce at the beginning that you're looking for odd reactions?

#32 Neutral, sarcasm comment is scummish

Spoiler:

The only judgment that could be made is that you could've let us know earlier... when you picked the attack up again nearer the start of D2. Unless I've missed a post in which you did just that. I don't think I have, though. I'd have come up with a sarcastic one-liner for the occasion.

Replying to me, the previous post. He seems to be suggesting I should've announced my intentions in my last post before the end of D1. Instead, I ended up basically saying "Meh, I didn't get much either way from my poking."

I honestly don't have any doubt he would've had a sarcastic oneliner, but his mentioning of this seems kind of blatant. I don't believe it is the pressure; if you compare him being pressured in HPMafia or Discmafia, he really doesn't get caustic about it.

Thank God, it is time for The Summary
That was a lot of shit. I'm going to go ahead and do something that will probably shock you now:
Vote: Not A Raptor.
Yeah, you didn't see that coming, did you? Yes, I think he's scum. I'm hoping you do as well now. I'd like to put a more dignified cap on this, but quite honestly my brain is fried. I'm not even going to proofread it for typos.

All I can do is hope that I've pointed out enough inconsistencies, enough odd things, that you believe NAR to be scum. If not, well, I've at least given any brave souls willing to attempt analyzing this post quite a bit to go off. My apologies, if you do try though, because damn.

Random closing thoughts
Re: #9, TLC has been correct about frogzombie outcomes thus far. Inside information?
Re: #28, I would not be shocked if Jay is NKed soon

Credits
I'd like to thank

Dr Pepper
Anyone who worked on writing Notepad.exe
The creators of spellcheck.net for including a word count

This post was constructed over a span of 15 hours. I probably spent around 6 directly working on it. Counting this line, it contains 66930 characters, which is almost 7000 more than the limits of the forum software.

Thank you, and good night!

[mister k]

Wow. Thats more than a little intimidating, a little hilarious, and convincing. I was swaying on nar anyhow,

unvote

vote:NAR

@Wei, my reasons for voting mpolo were contained in an earlier post where he attacks infina for an entire post then votes feltir. I found that very odd.

[weiyaoli]

Missed that post on my scanthrough the last page or so.
Apologies then.

[mpolo]

Van is either doing a really good analysis job, or playing to what I want to hear. The post that had me somewhat nervous about NaR is dissected much more thoroughly than I had done, and seems worse. In addition, a few more instances of very questionable behavior are added in. I was tending to be forgiving of NaR because of _infina_'s wine-spreading, but now I'm not so sure.

I'm not letting _infina_ off of the hook -- I expect to see something come of the hints and promises that have been made. But, I can't let NotARaptor go by, it seems.

Vote: NotARaptor

[_infina_]

Wall of nothing but NaR... Amazing work on that Van. I have nothing else that can be said in the face of that.
Unvote
Vote: NaR
Only because I will not be around for a day and a half.

[tastelikecoke]

Nice work Van, (I would definitely not be dedicated enough to do a graph from a mere game), I think this is the KoTR post you're talking about.

Some arguments do circle around me. Let's see here:

It's worth noting that TLC has been correct thus far about frogzombie outcomes.

I was in a verge of ragequitting after that post by NaR, in which NaR just highlights my crappy last liner.

but TLC is saying that RR is pinging him for essentially just agreeing with NAR.

Looking back I'm not quite sure what I wrote there.

This is a misrepresentation of TLC, for the reasons I noted in #9. I'll admit that TLC is playing dubiously here, especially with his request.

The worst case scenario happened in 8-bit theater mafia. After a day I got suddenly bandwagonned by the players, and I hadn't had enough time to defend myself since I was too time-constrained. (meta game or such.)

On voting third: he finally responds to someone's commentary on him, the most simplistic and obvious accusation possible. One he could shoot down easily. It's like doing the reverse strawman, waiting for someone else to set up an arguement you can easily attack and ignoring the rest.

I was also on a verge of ragequitting in this part. NaR picked on me a lot since D1. Now I can finally breathe without problems, as Van explained NaR's actions more clearly.

With this,
vote: Not A Raptor

[frogman]

2 dotproduct - Not A Raptor, weiyaoli
1 _infina_ - Two-Fry
1 mpolo - jayhsu
5 Not A Raptor - _infina_, mister k, mpolo, tastelikecoke, Van

8 to lynch.