xkcd

by **weiyaoli** » Tue Oct 05, 2010 2:35 pm UTC

Votals:
Misterk: 1 (Vector)
Vector:7 (Dr Ug, mpolo, misterk, Felltir, Misnomer, BigNose, Elvish Pillager)

13 players alive, 7 to lynch.

vector is lynched.

It is now N1. Flavour to come later.

by **RoadieRich** » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:33 pm UTC

Everyone was on edge. Although it had not yet descended into mass hysteria, the stress of the day was clearly getting too much for them (And indeed two people had already fainted) and everybody wanted it to just end. Suddenly, spooked by a loud roar outside the makeshift shelter in the square, the people fled in all directions.

They were in such great haste, even the people that had stayed behind to help the still sluggish Lataro hobble away, that they did not notice that vector (still unconsicous) had been left all alone in the square.

--<+>--

“… 9, 10, 11. That’s it. I've counted so many times, I can't be wrong. We're missing two people.”

"You did count yourself right?"

"Oh, but that still leaves us one short."

“Who's missing? There’s been more than enough time for everyone to get here, like we agreed...” the speaker trailed off.

"You don't think..."

"It's too late now anyway, we can't risk anyone else in this fog, not at night. Especially not for an outsider. Lock the doors, let's call it a night."

One by one, the people made their way to bed. Little did they know they would soon be up again - even if they would still be soundly asleep at the time.

by **Lataro** » Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:02 am UTC

hodi hodi ho hum.

by **BigNose** » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:55 am UTC

Lataro wrote:hodi hodi ho hum.

Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch

by **weiyaoli** » Sat Oct 09, 2010 2:24 pm UTC

Deadline set for N1:

3 more days. D2 will begin on Tuesday 12th October sometime (I'll set something firmer when we get closer). If your target is not in; be aware that you will miss using your action or your target will be randomized (Whichever one RR decides is best).

by **Elvish Pillager** » Sat Oct 09, 2010 3:00 pm UTC

Seven nights to the night? I could cop half the town in that time!

Supposing I have the cop ability, anyway.

by **roband** » Sat Oct 09, 2010 4:32 pm UTC

Snore. Wake me up when we get there

by **RoadieRich** » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:45 pm UTC

I'm going to move the deadline up. 1am BST Monday: approximately 24 hours from the time of this post.
Sorry to step over you Wei, this has taken far too long already.

Any targets not received by that time will be randomised.

by **RoadieRich** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:32 pm UTC

One by one the townspeople woke up and crawled out of the hastily rigged camp beds.
"I had the most awful dream last night. I dreampt that I was stabbing a woman in her bed, but as she died, she kept changing... shifting..."
Suddenly, there was a scream. One of the beds was covered in blood, the form under the covers twisting round on itself strangely. It was Maria Casey, but something odd was happening. It was as if she was made of putty, and someone was re-arranging her features. With a disgusted grunt, one of the bigger guys picked her up, and threw her into the cellar, locking the door after her. Soon there was a wet thud. Noone really dared to investigate what had happened. As the others started to collect themselves together to look for vector, they noticed that another person was missing. It was Diego, who was curled in a ball, skin discoloured, obviously dead. As someone rolled him over, he was clasping an unused polaroid camera to his chest.

Eventually, someone found vector's body. Or rather, what was left of it: he appeared to have followed Maria's fate some time during the night.

Felltir is dead. He was Maria Casey, a scum switcher.
Elvish Pillager is dead. He was Diego Fernandez, a town Rolecop.
Vector was Shawn Levine, an independent switcher.

(To solve confusion over gender, we are using Real Names to assign gender in flavour.)

It is now Day 2. 10 players remain, 6 votes to lynch. There is a tentative deadline of one week. This may change depending on quantity (and quality) of discussion.

by **mister k** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:38 pm UTC

So, mass cop claim ahoy, then discussion eh?

I investigated Ug last night, and got scum as the result.

by **BigNose** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:54 pm UTC

I copped Dr Ug and got Town. I have been a cop for 1 Nights.

by **Not A Raptor** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:32 pm UTC

I targetted mister k, got town. I have been a cop for 1 night.

by **MasterOfAll** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:36 pm UTC

Yeah, I copped roband last night, and he is town, and I've been a cop the whole game.

(Are we really going to wait for everyone to make their cop claim before continuing discussion? Because I don't think that is necessary. Someone can just collect all the claims into one place later on, and in the meantime we can chat about events so that we can hunt down scum.)

by **mpolo** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:04 pm UTC

I copped Felltir and got scum. I've been a cop since the beginning.

by **Misnomer** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:42 pm UTC

I investigated Roband last night and got scum. I have been cop since the beginning.

by **Dr Ug** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:47 pm UTC

I investigated Mr K last night, and got scum. I have been a cop since D1.

by **Lataro** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:54 pm UTC

I investigated MoA last night and got town. I have been a cop since D1.

by **BigNose** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:01 am UTC

OK, lots if useless posts, except that we have to believe that 1 of those so far posted is the Real cop and therefore believable. The problem is that we have to wait until they die to find out. A little less like breadcrumbs, more loaves.

The bad news with this strategy is that because we have lost 2 Switchers, the real cop will probably now stay as the cop, so maybe we have to consider stopping this mass claim now, so that we don't have to wait for the final cop to die before finding out.

We have lost 1 cop, but do still have the mirrors, although that could be 1T for 1S.

Lynching Vector looks like th eright thing to have done, but I don't think there is any large gain in doing so.

by **mpolo** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:22 am UTC

Sorry for not having put more into this than my report yesterday. But I was short on time.

As BigNose has said, this means that we have evolved into a more standard game -- there are still mirrors around and such, but we should be able to reliably find out who is who.

For what it was worth, Vector was telling the truth about being independent. And he was a switcher. Which is almost cruel to my eyes -- the chances of his winning were pretty slim. But that has little to do with the game.

There are probably scum on the wagon, as this was a safe target who they would have known to be non-scum. Of course, most of us were on the wagon.

I will need some more time to come up with anything more insightful to post.

by **mister k** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:23 pm UTC

so now we have no switchers obviously theres not much point in saying we've been cops since any particular night, does this invalidate the plan? Just read the starting page, apparently we do have a switcher left. Hmm. One would suppose that the remaining switcher would be town actually, so heres a thought- if a cop hits a scum result, they claim and thus die that night, while the switcher (who does not reveal themselves) takes the cops role? I guess as switching happens at the end of the night that means we will lose a cop result, but we get to hit scum and preserve the cop. What do people think?

by **BigNose** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:46 pm UTC

mister k wrote:so now we have no switchers obviously theres not much point in saying we've been cops since any particular night, does this invalidate the plan? Just read the starting page, apparently we do have a switcher left. Hmm. One would suppose that the remaining switcher would be town actually, so heres a thought- if a cop hits a scum result, they claim and thus die that night, while the switcher (who does not reveal themselves) takes the cops role? I guess as switching happens at the end of the night that means we will lose a cop result, but we get to hit scum and preserve the cop. What do people think?

This is all very well if the Switcher function occurs BEFORE the NK function, however, as we are unclear as to what the exact order is (although we can produce an educated guess), I think that using this strategy has the potential for Scumminess.

by **mister k** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:56 pm UTC

oh, I guess thats the case, thinking about it a bit more, as switching happens last. I'm an idiot.

by **mpolo** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 3:02 pm UTC

Another point would be whether the switcher knows who he is, I guess. Since the switcher moves around, you could think that you have one role, and be the switcher at the moment that it counts.

by **MasterOfAll** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:05 pm UTC

Okay, here are the 8 cop claims so far (still need a claim from Entropy and roband) . . .

Spoiler:

I'm glad that we are now discussing things. So, we are down 2 switchers and a rolecop so far. I agree that only having 1 switcher left will make it much easier to figure out at some point what is going on, although the rolecop would obviously have been quite useful in determining who had what role. Of course, I think it is still best to keep that sort of information (what role we might be, who we actually targeted) hidden for now since scum would benefit more from the knowledge.

I do think we should continue with the mass cop claim strategy (although, again, it should NOT be a primary focus) since being down to only 1 switcher doesn't really impact it's validity. It would be a valid strategy in a game with no switchers. Also, there is no reason for the cop to wait until he dies to claim if manages to get enough info that it makes sense to come out of hiding (like, already knows who remaining scum are, for instance). Also, I am assuming that the remaining cop is an alignment cop. It would be kinda funny if he was another rolecop, and EVERY cop claim is fake.

Yeah, even with 2 switchers gone, it still isn't automatic to figure out what role you currently have. If you get a cop or watcher result, you know what you were at the start of the night, but it is still possible that the switcher took it from you after you used it (I am going to continue to assume that the switching action is processed last each night, because that is what makes the most sense to me). Also, if your target dies in the night, you have to consider the possibility that you started the night with one of the killer roles. Other than that, no feedback is expected (and if you do have one of the other roles and got some feedback, I don't think you should mention it, since I don't think role claims help the town as much as scum at this point). Also, if you are a player who got no feedback, you still have to consider the possibility of being a cop, watcher, or killer since you might have been roleblocked.

Okay, now onto a little flavor analysis. Felltir had the only female role, and the flavor mentions stabbing a woman that kept changing as she died. At first, I thought this meant a switcher had targeted him and the switch went through after (or maybe before?) the kill did. But, upon further reflection, the flavor possibly was just indicating Felltir's potential to change into a different role. I would continue down this line of thinking and list what I see as possible scenarios that would produce a dead scum switcher, but still think scum benefit more from figuring out stuff about the roles, so I will stop. Let's just continue with the strategy of picking targets you think might be scum. Before we can do that, we have to find someone to lynch, of course.

Any thoughts yet on who to lynch?

by **Entropy** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:44 pm UTC

If we are still doing the whole cop result thing, umm... lets say MoA came up town.

by **BigNose** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:12 am UTC

How about a no-lynch process.
If we assume that there are no lies, apart from the Killers, then they should be aware of what they are.
I noticed that Mpolo targeted Felltir, who is now dead and correctly stated them as Scum.
I am going on the fact that Vectors' lynch was fortune, rather than logic/scum-tell.

We cannot go on anything said in D1, as I suspect that no-one knew their allegiance and therefore everyone posted as if they were a Townie.
Unless the Cop and Watcher was Blocked, they should also know who they are. But that does leave us in a position that as the Killers were NOT blocked, then those Blockers targeted someone, who was Town.

By using those Blockers, we could use them as potential Alignment Cops, but it depends on how many of what are Scum.
Currently I have:
1 * T Switcher
1 * T Mirror, 1 * S Mirror
1 * T Cop
2 * Blockers
1 * S Killer, 1 * I Killer
1 * T Watcher
1 * T Vanilla

Which gives us our 3 Scum (Switcher, Mirror, Killer), but also means that there were 2 Independents (Killer, Switcher).
By no-lynching, we are giving our Town roles, more chance to 'Cop' targets and either directly or indirectly identifying Townies and Scum.
The Cop gives us definitive indication, the Watcher gives us a half indication and the Blockers give us a Town indication, based on the number of Kills.

I think the no-lynch would only work for 1 or 2 Nights, because if we lynch and get NK's at this rate, we only have 3 nights.

by **mister k** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:50 am UTC

I'm not sure I buy a no lynch right now. Those are all weak cops, other than the actual cop, and we're surely much better getting information from lynching and seeing. The worst thing about a no-lynch process is that it tends to make days automatic, which means no discussion

by **mpolo** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:05 am UTC

I don't really like the no-lynch, except possibly near endgame (i.e. 4 left, 3:1, no-lynch makes sense).

BigNose is also jumping to a lot of conclusions -- that there is a second independent in the game, for instance, which I don't really understand the reason for. As a result, a certain level of suspicion is raised against BigNose.

Apparently, one of the kill functions was blocked (or both kills are town-independent, and both targeted Felltir). Either one of the scum-controlled night-kills was blocked (I'm assuming that they started with a tradable kill and the normal night-kill, though that might still be incorrect), or the idea that scum's normal night-kill is randomly given out is correct, so that one person targeted ElvishPillager with two kills. Or scum withheld their normal night-kill.

Actually, that's probably an important question:

Can the standard scum night kill be blocked/reflected?

by **BigNose** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:17 am UTC

mpolo wrote:I don't really like the no-lynch, except possibly near endgame (i.e. 4 left, 3:1, no-lynch makes sense).

BigNose is also jumping to a lot of conclusions -- that there is a second independent in the game, for instance, which I don't really understand the reason for. As a result, a certain level of suspicion is raised against BigNose.

Hmmmmmmmmmm.
We have 3 deaths, 1 was through Lynching, the other 2 were through ?????
I would expect that Scum had a (moveable) Killer skill, Switcher and Mirror (GF) - Switcher now dead.
Which means that we have another Killer ability, probably assigned to an independent.
It could mean that Scum have 2 x Killer abilities left, giving the Town 2 * Mirrors, which is better for Town (more chance of Scum hitting Mirror/suiciding).
I am not ruling out possibilities, just trying to see what would be considered a fair game and producing probabilities based on that.

For me, it is more probable that there is another Indy with the Killer ability and the Scum have a Mirror, than the Scum having both Killer abilities.
We know that Scum can talk to each other via the MOD/RoleNames, so that suggests even more so, that they have a single Killer ability between them.

Some things we certainly know:
Scum know they are scum.
The Indy knows (90%) that he is Indy - Target was killed and no Night-talk.
Cop knows he is cop, unless he was Blocked and will have target information.
Watcher knows he is watcher, unless he was Blocked and will have target information.
The Blockers know that they targeted Town - Kills were not blocked.

With regard to the no-lynch strategy, it's open for discussion.

by **BigNose** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:24 am UTC

EBWOP
In fact, given that the Scum Switcher was killed last night, that proves that there is an Indy, as Scum cannot kill Scum, so the Indy Killer (I am saying Indy as opposed to Town Vig for convenience) killed the Scum Switcher, we all lynched Vector and Scum decided that the best target for last night was Elvish.

There is a vague possibility that due to game mechanics, that Felltir had the Killer ability, but was swapped/changed to one of the other Scum to avoid the loss of that ability to Scum and that Felltir died because he hit a Mirror.

by **RoadieRich** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:40 am UTC

mpolo wrote:Can the standard scum night kill be blocked/reflected?

It can.

by **mister k** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:17 pm UTC

heres a thought. The mirrors are scum immune now. If the scum have lost their switch (which cannot be mirrored), then, as a mirror reflects kills, the mirror's only threat is to the town lynch. I'm not sure that the mirrors will know who they are, however.

by **BigNose** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:57 pm UTC

Here's a thought:
If we no-lynch, we can let the Killers lurch around and either kill each other, or kill themselves on the Mirrors.
Nobody targets anyone except the last Cop and the Watcher, no-one votes and watch it fall into a Town win.

by **mister k** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 1:06 pm UTC

"Everyone must send in a target each night, and can target themselves,"

so they'd have to target themselves. Also, its entirely possible that last nights kill was due to scum hitting the mirror, which means they've already found one and won't target them again. If we are correct in the assumption that there is a mirror on the scum side, that means each night the scum will be killing a town member, and if the cop happens to die tonight, we will have got nowhere.

by **mpolo** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:30 pm UTC

This is added to the fact that we don't know for sure if we ourselves are mirrors, or what we are. (Except of course, that we've all been cops since the beginning.)

by **MasterOfAll** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:13 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:We cannot go on anything said in D1, as I suspect that no-one knew their allegiance and therefore everyone posted as if they were a Townie.

What? When was the last time you read your role PM? Because mine made it clear that I am town. True, I was given no information on what, if any, power I might have. But I had no questions about my alignment.

Also, based on what has been revealed to us by the mods, I fully expect that the mafia team was told not just that they are scum but also given instructions on how to communicate with each other through the mods.

Now, I do think it is true that the mafia had no ideas about who their partners were on D1, so we can't look for links between players as an indication of scumminess. But that in no way means we should completely disregard everything said on D1.

BigNose wrote:Nobody targets anyone except the last Cop and the Watcher, no-one votes and watch it fall into a Town win.

Did you forget the discussion we had about this yesterday? The mod already told us yesterday that every player must send in a target each night.

Okay, now that I've gotten my daily rant at BigNose out of the way, onto the subject of whether no-lynch makes any sense at this point. I do not think that it is a horrible idea (I do like the idea of giving the cop extra nights for investigations, and keeping mirrors around for scum kill to backfire), but I still think it would be better to find someone to lynch. First of all, we might do a good job and lynch scum. Secondly, it will give us more stuff to analyze as the game goes on.

by **BigNose** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:29 pm UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:
BigNose wrote:Nobody targets anyone except the last Cop and the Watcher, no-one votes and watch it fall into a Town win.
Did you forget the discussion we had about this yesterday? The mod already told us yesterday that every player must send in a target each night

DAMN. Missed that some how. Nevermind, give me 5 minutes and I'm sure I can come up with something else.

by **mpolo** » Thu Oct 14, 2010 8:21 am UTC

Bignose's slip-ups are in character for him (I mean, he posts aggressively and occasionally overlooks something), but to imply that we don't know whether we are town or scum is somewhat extreme. There's not even such a game going on at the moment, though I suppose we could excuse it in that some thought that this would be the case in this game. And I suppose that if he didn't notice that he had an alignment until now, he was probably playing town.

I don't know, it makes me nervous, but at the same time, I don't think it necessarily means anything. He did make a point of drawing attention to the fact that my reported investigation was correct, almost as though he were trying to make sure that I get targeted by scum tonight. I find that pretty non-townie, actually.

by **roband** » Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:04 am UTC

I'm Spartacu.. I mean.. I'm the cop. I copped BigNose and he came up town. I have been a cop since... etc etc.

I need to have a proper read through now, rather than the quick skim I just did. I am here though, I promise

by **mister k** » Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:15 am UTC

not knowing our aligment is a strange mistake, but not one I could see scum making. I guess an independent might make it, or someone who's brain wasn't in gear. I'm not convinced its a scum tell though. I definitely don't think we should be no lynching.

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