xkcidy Dethy - Mafia Win

[John Citizen]

I got innocent on mpolo. I'm naive (or scum).

Cop Status
*** 1. VectorZero - ...... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
2. Mpolo - ............... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
3. BigNose - ............. Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 4. Anchorman - ..... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
5. Krong - ............... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
6. JohnCitizen - ........ Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 7. Gopher of Pern - .Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
8. webby - .............. Sane/ Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 9. Ibarra - .......... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 10. tastelikecoke - .Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
11. more_people - .... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid

'Copped' Status
*** 1. VectorZero - . . SCUM / DEAD
2. Mpolo - . . . . . . . . ?????? / SCUM* / TOWN&TOWN / TOWN&TOWN
3. BigNose - .. . . . . . SCUM / ? tlc ? /
*** 4. Anchorman - .. . SCUM / SCUM / DEAD
5. Krong - . . . . . . . . TOWN / SCUM /
6. JohnCitizen - . . . . TOWN / SCUM / ?RBLK?
*** 7. Gopher of Pern - .TOWN / ?????? / ?RBLK? /....../DEAD
8. webby - . . . . . . . . SCUM / TOWN / ??????
*** 9. Ibarra - . . . . . . TOWN / TOWN / MODK'D
*** 10. tastelikecoke - .SCUM / SCUM / TOWN / DEAD
11. more_people - . . . SCUM /TOWN / SCUM&TOWN / TOWN

"Copping" Status
*** 1. Vector Zero . . . . . . . . no results
2. mpolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (BigNose) / SCUM (Krong) / RBLK
3. BigNose . . . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (Anchorman) / SCUM (JohnCitizen) / TOWN (Mpolo)
*** 4. Anchorman . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Krong) / no more results
5. Krong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (JohnCitizen) / TOWN (webby) / TOWN (mpolo) / TOWN (more_people)
6. JohnCitizen. . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Gopher) / TOWN (Ibarra) / TOWN (more_people) / TOWN (mpolo)
*** 7. Gopher of Pern. . . . . . .SCUM (webby) / SCUM (tastelikecoke) / SCUM (more_people) / no more results
8. webby. . . . . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Ibarra) / TOWN (more_people) / TOWN (tastelikecoke) / TOWN (mpolo)
*** 9. Ibarra. . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (tastelikecoke) / SCUM (mpolo) / no more results
*** 10. tastelikecoke . . . . . . SCUM (more_people) / TOWN (mpolo) / no more results
11. more_people . . . . . . . . SCUM (VectorZero) / SCUM (Anchorman) / RBLK

N1. Sequential +1
N2. Sequential +3
N3. Concentrated:

Spoiler:

mpolo cops John
Bignose cops mpolo
Krong cops mpolo
John cops more_people
Gopher cops more_people
webby cops Tastelikecoke
tastelikecoke cops webby
more_people cops Gopher

N4. Concentrated:

Spoiler:

mpolo cops John
Krong cops more_people
John cops mpolo
Gopher cops mpolo
webby cops mpolo
more_people cops Gopher

Note: The ACTUAL 'who cops who' is determined by the NK removing a name within the list AND including the night they were killed.

Exceptions/mistakes (not in table):
*tastelikecoke copped Mpolo as town N2, instead of copping BigNose

Mpolo is up next.

[mpolo]

I got innocent on JohnCitizen. This means that I have a sane cop, and the remaining scum are Krong and more_people.

Cop Status
*** 1. VectorZero - ...... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
2. Mpolo - ............... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
3. BigNose - ............. Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 4. Anchorman - ..... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
5. Krong - ............... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
6. JohnCitizen - ........ Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 7. Gopher of Pern - .Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
8. webby - .............. Sane/ Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 9. Ibarra - .......... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
*** 10. tastelikecoke - .Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid
11. more_people - .... Sane / Insane / Naive / Paranoid

'Copped' Status
*** 1. VectorZero - . . SCUM / DEAD
2. Mpolo - . . . . . . . . ?????? / SCUM* / TOWN&TOWN / TOWN&TOWN
3. BigNose - .. . . . . . SCUM / ? tlc ? /
*** 4. Anchorman - .. . SCUM / SCUM / DEAD
5. Krong - . . . . . . . . TOWN / SCUM /
6. JohnCitizen - . . . . TOWN / SCUM / ?RBLK? / TOWN
*** 7. Gopher of Pern - .TOWN / ?????? / ?RBLK? /....../DEAD
8. webby - . . . . . . . . SCUM / TOWN / ??????
*** 9. Ibarra - . . . . . . TOWN / TOWN / MODK'D
*** 10. tastelikecoke - .SCUM / SCUM / TOWN / DEAD
11. more_people - . . . SCUM /TOWN / SCUM&TOWN / TOWN

"Copping" Status
*** 1. Vector Zero . . . . . . . . no results
2. mpolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (BigNose) / SCUM (Krong) / RBLK / TOWN (JohnCitizen)
3. BigNose . . . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (Anchorman) / SCUM (JohnCitizen) / TOWN (Mpolo)
*** 4. Anchorman . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Krong) / no more results
5. Krong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (JohnCitizen) / TOWN (webby) / TOWN (mpolo) / TOWN (more_people)
6. JohnCitizen. . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Gopher) / TOWN (Ibarra) / TOWN (more_people) / TOWN (mpolo)
*** 7. Gopher of Pern. . . . . . .SCUM (webby) / SCUM (tastelikecoke) / SCUM (more_people) / no more results
8. webby. . . . . . . . . . . . . . TOWN (Ibarra) / TOWN (more_people) / TOWN (tastelikecoke) / TOWN (mpolo)
*** 9. Ibarra. . . . . . . . . . . . SCUM (tastelikecoke) / SCUM (mpolo) / no more results
*** 10. tastelikecoke . . . . . . SCUM (more_people) / TOWN (mpolo) / no more results
11. more_people . . . . . . . . SCUM (VectorZero) / SCUM (Anchorman) / RBLK

N1. Sequential +1
N2. Sequential +3
N3. Concentrated:

Spoiler:

mpolo cops John
Bignose cops mpolo
Krong cops mpolo
John cops more_people
Gopher cops more_people
webby cops Tastelikecoke
tastelikecoke cops webby
more_people cops Gopher

N4. Concentrated:

Spoiler:

mpolo cops John
Krong cops more_people
John cops mpolo
Gopher cops mpolo
webby cops mpolo
more_people cops Gopher

Note: The ACTUAL 'who cops who' is determined by the NK removing a name within the list AND including the night they were killed.

Exceptions/mistakes (not in table):
*tastelikecoke copped Mpolo as town N2, instead of copping BigNose

[mpolo]

EBWOP: I just realized that I don't have enough information to discern between Krong and Webby.

But I know that more_people is scum…

Vote: more_people

[mpolo]

EBWOPOP: I am an idiot. Of course I can tell the difference between Krong and Webby -- I copped Krong a couple of nights ago.

Krong is pretending to be naive, though, so is less dangerous for providing wine tomorrow.

[more_people]

OR you and John Citizen are scum. Anyway you don't have to be an idiot to know what I'm going to do.
Vote:mpolo

[webby]

OR you and John Citizen are scum. Anyway you don't have to be an idiot to know what I'm going to do.
Vote:mpolo

Are you going to claim a cop result?

[more_people]

I got scum on GoP.

[webby]

Four potential scumteams, of which three are possible (someone check this for me, I might have got it wrong ):

more_people + Krong

Spoiler:

Webby = naive
JC = naive
Anchorman = insane
Gopher = paranoid
tastelikecoke = sane
mpolo = sane
Ibarra = insane or paranoid
vector_zero = insane or paranoid

ALLOWED


mpolo + Krong

Spoiler:

webby = naive
JC = naive
Anchorman = insane
tastelikecoke = insane
more_people = paranoid
Ibarra = paranoid
Gopher = insane or paranoid.

CONTRADICTION


mpolo + John Citizen

Spoiler:

webby = naive
Krong = naive
Anchorman = sane
tastelikecoke = insane
more_people = insane or paranoid
Ibarra = paranoid
Gopher = insane or paranoid
vector_zero = sane

ALLOWED


mpolo + webby

Spoiler:

Krong = naive
JC = naive
Anchorman = sane
tastelikecoke = insane
Ibarra = paranoid
more_people = insane or paranoid
Gopher = insane or paranoid
vector_zero = sane

ALLOWED

[webby]

So for me there are only two possible scumteams - Krong + more_people or John Citizen + mpolo.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to vote for Krong + more_people, but I'll wait for more discussion and a check of my logic before actually voting.

[John Citizen]

I'm fairly sure that I know who the scum are: mpolo and webby.

My reasoning:

When you order the player list for that option, we have:

VZ=sane
Anchorman=sane
Krong=naive
JC=naive
GoP=paranoid
Ibarra=paranoid
TLC=insane
more_people=insane

Now, this ordering in itself is unlikely. Not only that, but the order [sane, naive, paranoid, insane] is exactly the same as the order given by dotproduct in the OP. The chances of this happening randomly are approximately 0.2% (n=8C2*6C2*4C2, P=1-([n-1][n-2][n-3]/[n^3]). Also, this occurs for no other scum team.

I'm not going to vote yet, to allow reasonable time for a defense and a checking of the probabilities.

[webby]

From the original post in this thread:

Roles were distributed at random.

It's just a weird coincidence, I'm afraid - all combinations were equally likely.

Defence of myself is coming, just wanted to put that out there in case anyone was going to prematurely vote.

[mpolo]

You're saying that if this case is true, then the mod completely didn't randomize the roles, and therefore that case must be correct???

It would highly unusual, to say the least, that the mod would purposefully set up his game to have such a result. And as you have said, the chances of such a setup coming randomly are staggeringly small. If I didn't know the scum because of logic/investigations, this would be enough to flag that pairing as unlikely.

Here is an argument that everyone in the town can understand, but presumably the scum won't know what I'm talking about:

RESULTS REPORTED on day one:

BigNose: Scum
more_people: Scum
Gopher: Scum
anchorman: innocent
JohnCitizen: innocent
webby: innocent
tastelikecoke: guilty
mpolo: guilty
Ibarra: guilty
Krong: innocent

Any townie reading this list would likely come to the conclusion that BigNose, more_people and Gopher are scum. My theory is that Gopher reported his result incorrectly and Krong realized what the true results looked like.

Day Two:
JohnCitzen: innocent
mpolo: guilty
tastelikecoke: innocent
webby: innocent
BigNose: SCUM
Gopher: guilty
ibarra: scum
Krong: innocent
more_people: scum

(Here we see Krong actively trying to support more_people's towny-ness as well.)

Here ibarra also reported his result incorrectly. Krong is smart, though, and fakes a correct result, while BigNose and more_people give impossible results.

Day 3:
more_people: didn't get a result
mpolo: roleblocked
Krong: innocent
Gopher: guilty
BigNose: Town
JohnCitizen: town
webby: innocent

Here, JohnCitizen reported his result incorrectly.

Day 4:
webby: innocent
Krong: innocent
JohnCitizen: innocent
mpolo: innocent
more_people: scum


Note that more_people has not even ONCE reported a cop result that he could have received in this game.

I hope that this is not too much against the spirit of the game. Perhaps everybody except more_people and Krong should be modkilled for having quoted a PM. But I'm not in a mood for a shouting match.

[webby]

Ok, my defence:

I can't offer much in the way of probabilities, because objectively there's a 1/3 chance of each scum team.
So we can only go by subjective factors, which is unfortunate. I think if you go back through the thread, you'll find that I've been contributing a lot more pro-town content than Krong has. You'll also find that I was the first to be suspicious of BigNose.

Look at day 3 - start from the end of page 3 and go from there.

First, I present a strategy that nobody had previously suggested and which I think is fairly obviously pro-town.
Then, I argue that TLC is more likely to be town, therefore leading a lynch on one out of mpolo or more_people, one of which is known to us to be scum.
After much discussion, I suggest that BigNose and more_people are suspicious.
BigNose suggests we (me and him) should tone down the strategy discussion - maybe that was because I was on the right track?

I'm going to leave it at that for now (because I think if I try to elaborate or justify too much, it will start to sound defensive) but I'm willing to expand on any points you wish to question. I need sleep now though, I'll try to respond to any queries in the morning.

(saw mpolo's post)
That's a very odd theory, I can't believe that it's likely that town would report incorrectly, especially twice.

[webby]

Oh wait, now I understand, you're not saying that they gave the wrong result, you're saying that they stated it differently to how it was in the PMs from the mod.

That's unfortunate, and I have no idea if it's in the spirit of the game, but I can't dispute your logic.

[John Citizen]

Roles were distributed at random.

Maybe so - it indeed seems that the mafia roles were distributed randomly (2, 3, 8 for this combination).

It's just a weird coincidence, I'm afraid - all combinations were equally likely.

Weird coincidence? Of all the possibilities that could have turned up, this one did; the one listed in the OP. As I said, the probability that it would turn up is 0.2%. That's a one in five hundred chance - I'm willing to risk the game on a chance like that.

You're saying that if this case is true, then the mod completely didn't randomize the roles, and therefore that case must be correct???.

Restating, I'm saying that the chance of any combination being one of the three at random is about 0.2%. Now, this combination exhibits the exact order that dotproduct said at the start of the game. What is more likely:
1. An 0.2% chance of random occurence
2. Dotproduct used the same order twice

I think that it is the latter. As for your other argument, it is full of holes - I didn't say innocent every time, neither Ibarra nor GoP said guilty every time; yet we are all confirmed townies from your point of view. Krong did not make a 'mistake', but you dismiss that as being smart. More_people makes a 'mistake' every time, but you don't dismiss that as being stupid.

Anyway, you don't need to worry about a lynch just yet; my vote is required.

[mpolo]

Krong had the advantage of posting last on day one and seems to have caught on to what everyone else posted. BigNose and more_people were the first two, and trapped themselves. I think that everyone expected "scum" or "town" -- we got "innocent" or "guilty". And most townies used innocent/guilty pretty consistently, only slipping up once or twice. Only our confirmed scum and more_people consistently used the wrong word. And if more_people is scum, Krong is logically scum.

Note that the scum could only find out about the correct terminology on Day One by observing the thread -- they got no PM. Which is why I think that BigNose and more_people stepped into a mistake there.

[webby]

Roles were distributed at random.

Maybe so - it indeed seems that the mafia roles were distributed randomly (2, 3, 8 for this combination).

It's just a weird coincidence, I'm afraid - all combinations were equally likely.

Weird coincidence? Of all the possibilities that could have turned up, this one did; the one listed in the OP. As I said, the probability that it would turn up is 0.2%. That's a one in five hundred chance - I'm willing to risk the game on a chance like that.

Easy solution:
Mod: Can you confirm the cop alignments were distributed randomly?

[John Citizen]

Krong had the advantage of posting last on day one and seems to have caught on to what everyone else posted. BigNose and more_people were the first two, and trapped themselves. I think that everyone expected "scum" or "town" -- we got "innocent" or "guilty". And most townies used innocent/guilty pretty consistently, only slipping up once or twice. Only our confirmed scum and more_people consistently used the wrong word. And if more_people is scum, Krong is logically scum.

Note that the scum could only find out about the correct terminology on Day One by observing the thread -- they got no PM. Which is why I think that BigNose and more_people stepped into a mistake there.

The thing is, GoP 'slipped up' like this on the first day, and then fixed it later. Both BigNose and more_people had the opportunity to do this, but didn't. My main point is that you can't really use that as an argument, because any trend is obscured by a high level of noise. I also note that you have no evidence of who gave the right roleblock response - maybe more_people had the right response. Anyway, it's trivially easy to turn the argument around:
Both webby and mpolo got the right results each time, as they were near the end of the list. Mpolo incorrectly said roleblock D4, when the correct response was "I didn't get a result". BigNose's claiming was wrong because he was scum, but more_people just slipped up thrice.
It has about as many errors as your argument.

[John Citizen]

EBWOP:

@webby: I'm not sure if the mod will actually answer your question. There's no way that he'd say no, and thus the only possible answers are yes and not telling. I have a hunch that it will be the last option, but I'll wait and see.

[Krong]

To get this out of the way:

Vote: mpolo

Now... this discussion where mpolo keeps nailing the point of "you didn't know what the results looked like, ahahah!" is really, really misleading. He used it on more_people yesterday with the roleblock thing, and now he's using it inconsistently today with the innocent/guilty thing. But of course he's right, there's no way scum could have known what cop results looked like. None at all...

The police had all gone back to the main office room to share their results.
...

You got [innocent / guilty] on [player].

Begin day 2

Most especially not that. /sarcasm

Now, BigNose was clearly scum and probably didn't notice that, I'll grant you that. But then more_people posted in the same style as him, as did a confirmed townie (GoP). Another confirmed townie (Anchorman) got us on the right path.

You're also ignoring the fact that we'd planned out a results table ahead of time with SCUM / TOWN, which would have biased people toward using those names. I kinda bet you noticed dp's post and have been waiting this whole game for "slips" to help defend you at a time like this. Moving on now...

As for the idea of it being next-to-impossible to get this setup of cops randomly, I'll have to do the math myself, but it just feels weird that the mod would be careful about the kind of information we get in other aspects but not that one. I do know that mpolo is scum, more_people is town, and JC seems to be acting townier than webby, but I'm not ready to jump to the conclusion that webby is scum with mpolo quite yet. Though the fact that webby is so strongly defending himself together with mpolo, when so far I don't think they have to be the same alignment, certainly makes it look likely to me.

So now, analysis time:

Possiblities:

BN, mpolo, Krong
BN, mpolo, JC
BN, mpolo, Webby
BN, m_p, Krong
BN, m_p, JC
BN, m_p, Webby

The last two are clearly eliminated by mpolo's claim of cop results. Webby's analysis of {BN, mpolo, Krong} is wrong, because it forgets VZ, but it is an impossible case nevertheless. Piggybacking off of JC's stuff from yesterday:

Spoiler:

VZ was unknown
Anchorman was insane or naive
JC is sane or naive
GoP is insane or paranoid
webby is sane or naive
Ibarra was paranoid
TLC was insane
m_p is insane or paranoid

GoP and m_p are both either insane or paranoid, therefore Anchorman is naive. VZ, JC, webby are 2 sane, 1 naive. But today's cop results mean that we'd have to have 3 naive, so...
CONTRADICTION

Soo... without knowing which of those people are town, we have a 2/3 chance mpolo is scum, and a 1/3 chance for everyone else. From mpolo's perspective, 2 scum are known; from my perspective and more_people's, 1 scum and 1 town are known; from JC and Webby's, there is a 50% chance of scum teams containing two pairs of the other players.

More to come later. We are at one vote to lynch, so the one of JC and webby who is town should be careful, but there's again no danger of a scum speedhammer.

[dotproduct]

Mod: Can you confirm the cop alignments were distributed randomly?

Confirming or denying this has the potential to drain the life and fun from this game. As such, this won't be answered.



Votals:

mpolo (2) - more_people, Krong
more_people (1) - mpolo


5 players, 3 to lynch

[John Citizen]

@Krong: I didn't even see that, as I didn't look back through the thread (taking mpolo's word for the results, flawed though his argument was). However, now that I do, I see that the post you refer to is six posts above that of the first results. I am finding it difficult to believe that mpolo could have not seen this.

I have no reason whatsoever to argue a case against mpolo, as this is where today's lynch is heading, and we're already at L-1. The only person that I'd need to convince is webby, who from my perspective is the same alignment as mpolo. Hence, arguing mpolo's scumminess is equivalent for me to arguing webby's scumminess, thus defeating the purpose of me attempting to convince webby. However, I will argue why I think that webby is scum. I have added emphasis where necessary.

First off, this:

Oh wait, now I understand, you're not saying that they gave the wrong result, you're saying that they stated it differently to how it was in the PMs from the mod.

That's unfortunate, and I have no idea if it's in the spirit of the game, but I can't dispute your logic.

It doesn't take a genius to see the gaping holes in mpolo's argument. I looked at it for about five seconds before working out why it was completely wrong, and that's ignoring the fact that dotproduct gave innocent/guilty as the possible results. Not only this, but webby didn't even attempt to analyse it. This contrasts to yesterday, where:

I'm going to go through John Citizen's possibilities and check them all anyway, see if anything jumps out, or if there's any reason for the Krong, mpolo, GOP team to be more likely than the others.

It seems that webby is far less inclined to analyse the logic of mpolo than of myself.

So for me there are only two possible scumteams - Krong + more_people or John Citizen + mpolo.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to vote for Krong + more_people, but I'll wait for more discussion and a check of my logic before actually voting.

You never explain why you think this team is scum. It seems to me at least that you're trying to defend mpolo without explanation.


For the scum teams, the order that webby gives is jumbled, whereas my order yesterday was in order of the playerlist. It is a lot easier to have the players in order for working these out, as it allows the quick copying of information from the results table, in order. Despite this, webby's results are in no particular order. I wonder why?

Looking at it, I can't see any reason why that team would inherently be more likely than the others, but maybe we need to ask the question of whether GOP, Krong and mpolo could have framed BigNose. It's a pretty bold move in a game decided mainly by logic for BN to claim insane cop when continuing to look paranoid would have given us less information. I still think BigNose is probably the best lynch (it has to be BigNose or mpolo really) but the above makes me slightly uneasy.

Now, this looks really scummy to me. I read that as "Well, I'll have to vote BigNose eventually if this suspicion continues, but I might be able to remove some of it by suggesting that the probabilities are skewed".

Overall verdict: Scum

FoS that will become a vote today or tomorrow: webby

I think I'm done here. I'll probably vote mpolo later today, in the interest of not rushing the lynch.

[webby]

I'm not at a computer today but quick post from my phone.

Firstly, we've considered 20 possible scum teams in this game. The chances of a coincidence of this kind is therefore 20/500, not 1/500.

Secondly, the first post says 'roles were distributed at random'. Clearly insane cop is a different rolw to sane cop. Therefore, I think the first post is quite clear. Also, I think it's very unlikely the mods would give out roles based on a clear and obvious pattern of the player list.

Thirdly, i'd like someone to do an analysis of how likely mpolo's coincidence is to happen by chance.

Also to the mod, I was just asking for a clarification of the first post. Personally i think this + mpolo's idea are killing the fun of the game. But I understand your position and will reserve further discussion to the end of the game. Mpolo's in particular is an example of what can happen in games with multiple cops.

[webby]

Quick response to krong, it goes further than just whether they say innocent or town, it's that we're quoting the exact pm that was sent to us. I know we're.not meant to do that but I didn't think of tjw problem at the time.

The bignose stuff i'll discuss later but I just wanted to be sure, didn't necessarily trust the peobabilities.

[webby]

And my results were in the order I worked them out, you'll see that the obvious ones are first and vectorzero is last.

[webby]

Also:

vote: more_people

Because if jc was scum he would have voted me.and the game would be over.

[John Citizen]

And thus I am handed the role of tie-breaker.

I'm not at a computer today but quick post from my phone.

Firstly, we've considered 20 possible scum teams in this game. The chances of a coincidence of this kind is therefore 20/500, not 1/500.

That's not how probability works. There are 2520 separate possibilities for the cops - this does not include scum. There are 3 possible setups remaining, all with different cop arrangements, ie. 3 of 2520. The chance that the particular combination [sanex2, naivex2, paranoidx2, insanex2] doesn't turn up in the first setup is 2519/2520. For the second, 2518/2520. The third, 2517/2520. The total probability that the combination never turns up is the product of these, approximately 99.8%. Therefore the chance that it would turn up is approximately 0.2%.

Secondly, the first post says 'roles were distributed at random'. Clearly insane cop is a different rolw to sane cop. Therefore, I think the first post is quite clear. Also, I think it's very unlikely the mods would give out roles based on a clear and obvious pattern of the player list.

And dotproduct just said that he isn't telling whether he counted the different cops as separate roles in much clearer words than the first post. It's more likely that dotproduct got lazy (sorry dotproduct) than the exact combination in the OP turned up by chance.

Thirdly, i'd like someone to do an analysis of how likely mpolo's coincidence is to happen by chance.

This has been discussed. There is no 'coincidence' at all, as dotproduct said what the possible results were. Not to mention that the entire 'coincidence' is comprised mostly of statistical noise.

And my results were in the order I worked them out, you'll see that the obvious ones are first and vectorzero is last.

I guess that I can accept that argument - the orders aren't the same between them.

Also:

vote: more_people

Because if jc was scum he would have voted me.and the game would be over.

Um... what? Nobody is voting for you, only for mpolo and more_people. Now, though, if I am scum I would hammer more_people. I'm not doing that, because I'm town (methinks confirmed now).

[John Citizen]

EBWOP:
As there is no way that I am scum (I am not scum with more_people, and thus I would have hammered him if I was scum) copping is now inconsequential, because there are now 2 scum teams with no living shared members:

BN, mpolo, webby
BN, more_people, krong

Thus I am the only one that doesn't know all of the scum for certain. Obviously, I'm leaning mostly to believing that mpolo/webby are scum, but I'd like it if both sides would provide reasons why the other side is scum.

[webby]

Apologies for the logicfail in the last couple of posts. It was part frustration that we're going to lose on this random chance rather from from any skill on the part of the scumteam and part me knowing that you're the type who would vote based purely on what you think the probabilities are and therefore trying to use any means possible to convince you.

To he honest i think you're suffering from confirmation bias, you decided I was scum and now yu're interpreting everything in light of that. My final suggestion is to look back at day 3, because there was plenty I did then that wouldn't make sense as scum. I put forward a clearly protown strategy nobody else had thought of. I picked bignose out before anyone else was suspicious of him.

Finally, can you give me any other example of a game where a mod was that lazy? I haven't been here long, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be common. Why woukd someone put so much effort into a game but neglect that simple and obviois thing?

[webby]

Difference between me and krong is that he's basically active-lurked his way through the game, while I've provided protown strategies. Will post more if the game is still going when I get home.

I think more_people gave a big scumtell when he didn't initially claim a result, just voted. I don't thinkbtown, who actually got a result pm, would do this.

[mpolo]

When I went back to re-read to confirm my suspicion that the scum had given the wrong results, I was obviously re-reading only the messages where those results were given. As such, I did not re-read the day start flavor.

In any case, it is really simple decision for JohnCitizen at the moment: vote for me and lose, or vote for more_people and win. And I don't think there is much else that I can say. Krong planted the seed about how "scummy" I was very early, while consistently pointing out how "towny" more_people was. And if you've already decided that you trust him more than you do me, then town has lost, and nothing I say will change that.

[John Citizen]

To help all of you, I'm going to use a numerical ranking.
1=krong and m_p scum
10=webby and mpolo scum

Apologies for the logicfail in the last couple of posts. It was part frustration that we're going to lose on this random chance rather from from any skill on the part of the scumteam and part me knowing that you're the type who would vote based purely on what you think the probabilities are and therefore trying to use any means possible to convince you.

I can understand your frustration, and don't interpret it as a scumtell - regardless of your actual alignment, you will lose if mpolo is lynched. About the probabilities, remember this:

I can't deny what JC has done, but just because I am in 7 of the 8 scenarios, doesn't mean that I am Scum.

?
What I was thinking:

It kinda does BigNose!

And guess how he turned out.

To he honest i think you're suffering from confirmation bias, you decided I was scum and now yu're interpreting everything in light of that.

Hence why I've asked for analysis. Although, I didn't decide that you were scum - I was leaning town on you until I saw the probabilities.

My final suggestion is to look back at day 3, because there was plenty I did then that wouldn't make sense as scum. I put forward a clearly protown strategy nobody else had thought of. I picked bignose out before anyone else was suspicious of him.

True, but the suspicion of BigNose was only minor. I do consider this as a more towny action, but that does not preclude you being scum (BigNose made the table)

Finally, can you give me any other example of a game where a mod was that lazy? I haven't been here long, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be common. Why woukd someone put so much effort into a game but neglect that simple and obviois thing?

I don't think that the probability is extremely high, but I also don't think that it is as low as 0.2%. Maybe dotproduct wasn't expecting that we'd figure out every single cop for each possible combination, or maybe he put it in for balance. By the way, I haven't been here long either.

When I went back to re-read to confirm my suspicion that the scum had given the wrong results, I was obviously re-reading only the messages where those results were given. As such, I did not re-read the day start flavor.

Still, you must have scrolled past it, trying to find these. I will give you the benefit of the doubt on this one, however, unless more evidence comes to light regarding it. Your argument is still wrong, however.

Wine wine wine.

I won't even bother responding to this.

Krong planted the seed about how "scummy" I was very early, while consistently pointing out how "towny" more_people was. And if you've already decided that you trust him more than you do me, then wine wine wine.

He did, but maybe he thought that you were scummy. I did too, but I was distracted by more_people's lurking, and wanted him to post more. Not only that, but webby was planting suspicion as well, but of more_people.


Scum ranking - 7.5

[mpolo]

Then, all I can say is congratulations, BigNose, Krong, and more_people. Well played.

[John Citizen]

Wine wine wine.

Please stop doing that.

On a more serious note, webby is actually providing arguments towards your case - you are not. It's really annoying to sift through the "don't lynch me or you'll lose" type comments that you have in your posts, and is one of the factors that makes you look like scum. If you put forward an argument as webby has done, I'll consider it on its merits. The "scum ranking" that I have is not fixed, but changes as players post. It's now at about 8, due to all of the winey comments which do nothing to help town.

[mpolo]

I am at a point of not even caring any more. I think that absolutely anything I say is going to be interpreted as wine. I made a huge effort to show that the scum tended to report their results incorrectly, though that was later shown to be more laziness than anything else.

Webby defending me just means that we have two town who have "found" one another, and two scum who have known one another. It is pretty clear at
this point that we are going to see lots of "linkage" in those pairs, and everyone trying to suck up to you. I am currently looking back to see if I can show signs of earlier non-linkage with webby. I am pretty sure that I never expressed an opinion about webby at all before today, since I had no data at all to say anything one way or another. He was earlier on the "lynch one of mpolo or more_people" idea, though leaned more toward lynching more_people even then. (I was in the preferring no lynch group at that point, because I was worried that a wrong lynch would be disastrous.) His leaning toward trusting me over more_people was shared with GopherofPern. He was the first (as far as I saw) to start suspecting BigNose, at a point where scum would have no reason to do so. On day 4, he started deciding that I was scummy (held back only by the extreme antipathy between BigNose and myself).

You will note that my opinion of my own sanity has varied with time. I assumed that it was too good to be true that I got two scum results, so was tending to ignore my results altogether, so thought that I was insane or paranoid. Realizing I was sane came only with today's result. This whole line of thinking is pretty winey, though. (Because essentially, I was convinced that BigNose and Krong were both town, but now I know them both to be scum…) I also continued to treat BigNose as town, even when he was constantly accusing me, until it became clear that he was, in fact, scum.

Finally, more_people has been extremely lurky, only popping in to vote and give results, presumably because he is afraid of giving scumtells. However, he has said that he has had spotty Internet, so that could be the reason as well.

And that's about all that I can say. I can only hope that JohnCitizen chooses correctly.

[John Citizen]

I am at a point of not even caring any more. I think that absolutely anything I say is going to be interpreted as wine. I made a huge effort to show that the scum tended to report their results incorrectly, though that was later shown to be more laziness than anything else.

The only real things that I'm interpreting as wine are the comments like "I'm town, so krong/more_people is scum" or "if you kill me, you lose". It doesn't help, but this post has improved on that.

Webby defending me just means that we have two town who have "found" one another, and two scum who have known one another. It is pretty clear at
this point that we are going to see lots of "linkage" in those pairs, and everyone trying to suck up to you. I am currently looking back to see if I can show signs of earlier non-linkage with webby.

I saw linkage when webby kept saying that he thinks that krong's scum over myself (as my towniness was linked to yours from webby's perspective at that point). This was before webby could have known that you were town (again, from his perspective). Oh, and I enjoy this feeling of power as a confirmed townie, but the pressure to get it right is making me hesitate in my decision - probably good for you (as with webby, regardless of your alignment).

I am pretty sure that I never expressed an opinion about webby at all before today, since I had no data at all to say anything one way or another. He was earlier on the "lynch one of mpolo or more_people" idea, though leaned more toward lynching more_people even then. (I was in the preferring no lynch group at that point, because I was worried that a wrong lynch would be disastrous.) His leaning toward trusting me over more_people was shared with GopherofPern. He was the first (as far as I saw) to start suspecting BigNose, at a point where scum would have no reason to do so. On day 4, he started deciding that I was scummy (held back only by the extreme antipathy between BigNose and myself).

As I said earlier, it was only minor suspicion - I was the first to instill major suspicion with my scum team list. Overall, I found webby fairly townie early on, but I used BigNose's creation of the results table to demonstrate that townie behaviour is not necessarily proof of towniness, only evidence.

You will note that my opinion of my own sanity has varied with time. I assumed that it was too good to be true that I got two scum results, so was tending to ignore my results altogether, so thought that I was insane or paranoid. Realizing I was sane came only with today's result. This whole line of thinking is pretty winey, though. (Because essentially, I was convinced that BigNose and Krong were both town, but now I know them both to be scum…) I also continued to treat BigNose as town, even when he was constantly accusing me, until it became clear that he was, in fact, scum.

I was hoping for a sane result for you too - it cut out a lot of the scum teams. However, this does not imply towniness - it's a case of low probability for town vs. bad play for scum.

Finally, more_people has been extremely lurky, only popping in to vote and give results, presumably because he is afraid of giving scumtells. However, he has said that he has had spotty Internet, so that could be the reason as well.

I tend to think the latter, but I would ask both krong and more_people to provide their case.

Rating: 7.5

[more_people]

Look, I've remained silent mostly because anything I have to say is on the table. If we lynch a townie then scum win if you didn't already know. It's either me or mpolo, and of course I'm going to say "I'm town, he's scum, lynch him!" but you don't know that. All you know is that one of us is scum and if you lynch incorrectly then scum win. So the choice is yours. That's all I have to say.

[John Citizen]

As I have explained, what I would like is for one side to convince me with good arguments. I don't care that you'd be arguing for only one side (as long as they're decent arguments), because if you don't, the other side will be the only one arguing.

[Krong]

Sorry, this whole thing blew up after I went to sleep, and I don't have much time now to make a long post. I also haven't looked too closely at webby's posting history yet, but what I have seen is fairly damning in retrospect.

First, the vote from Webby today. I think JC was being far too charitable about that when he said this:

Apologies for the logicfail in the last couple of posts. It was part frustration that we're going to lose on this random chance rather from from any skill on the part of the scumteam and part me knowing that you're the type who would vote based purely on what you think the probabilities are and therefore trying to use any means possible to convince you.

I can understand your frustration, and don't interpret it as a scumtell - regardless of your actual alignment, you will lose if mpolo is lynched.

You're thinking of this from the perspective of knowing you're town, JC, which was something that webby couldn't have known at the time unless he was scum. By voting more_people, he gave you the opportunity to speedhammer, basically leaving the game up to a 50-50 coin flip as to whether the your next post would lead to a scum win. This would be an incredibly dumb thing for town to do, and I'm having trouble seeing any logical path that leads to such a slip that doesn't include assumptions like "I (Webby) am the same alignment as mpolo" or "JC is definitely town."

RE: my posting history. I think they've accused me of active lurking, not providing town with any ideas, and of putting more_people over mpolo early on. The first two are opinions that I can provide evidence against if necessary, but they'd still be opinions. One piece of evidence, though:

I'm aware that I had a lot of posts on D3 where I was just waiting for something to happen. I'll freely admit that -- I was waiting to figure out what the deal was with Ibarra. We could have lost with a mislynch + modkill, and no one else seemed to realize it, so I brought that up. Does that not count as a pro-town idea to you, Webby? What does -- leading in deciding the cop targets and orderings?

As far as putting more_people over mpolo, if they'd bothered to read my posting, I was nearly ready to place a vote on him today until mpolo kindly informed me that he was town. To say I've consistently been framing mpolo and promoting m_p is simply untrue. And I believe the first post where I even mention either of you was where you jumped to a poor conclusion that m_p was scum based on TLC's cop result, when you couldn't have known him to be town.

(Aaaaand I've just now realized I'm in the unfortunate position of having to defend someone who posts like more_people does. Crap. The best thing I can say is that his posting style in this game has been a bit weird, but no weirder than normal, and I don't really think he's said anything really anti-town this game. Which is probably why they're focusing their efforts on my posts instead.)

mpolo has been whining since he got copped oppositely of m_p by TLC. He assumed early that he would be lynched, when things were quite undecided and TLC hadn't been killed and proven town yet. He's also been pushing a wrong argument today, probably in hopes that no one would notice it was wrong. (Also, why did you just start this today? Why not yesterday, when that argument, if valid, would have incriminated BN?)

Webby (and again I haven't reviewed too much of his posting) made a huge slip today that a townie would realize was incredibly dangerous and unhelpful. He's been pushing the "I accused BigNose!" thing quite a bit, when it doesn't mean that much for scum to be able to find their own team member. (And if I'm scum, I was also the first one to vote for him, which should show that the argument's a wash anyway.) And we let him decide a bit too much in terms of our cop results, IMO, and likely didn't get the best results we could as a ... result. (That didn't sound silly until I typed it out.)


If you want any further argument from me, you'll have to wait until this afternoon, but those are the main points -- the rest is just details.

Also,
Mod: Can we pre-submit votes for tomorrow? There's not going to be any point to discussion tomorrow, as we win or lose today, so it seems rather pointless to go through the motions of a Day 6.

[webby]

Ok, first - thanks for not voting yet. It was exactly how I felt about a BigNose lynch, which was why I was slightly hesitant. I know that one went well, but I also know that this one won't. Here's my arguments:

Apologies for the logicfail in the last couple of posts. It was part frustration that we're going to lose on this random chance rather from from any skill on the part of the scumteam and part me knowing that you're the type who would vote based purely on what you think the probabilities are and therefore trying to use any means possible to convince you.

I can understand your frustration, and don't interpret it as a scumtell - regardless of your actual alignment, you will lose if mpolo is lynched. About the probabilities, remember this:

I can't deny what JC has done, but just because I am in 7 of the 8 scenarios, doesn't mean that I am Scum.

?
What I was thinking:

It kinda does BigNose!

And guess how he turned out.

First - yes, that's logical - there's no incentive for town to act any different to scum today - both teams should be doing their best not to get lynched and putting forth their arguments. I think it is scummy that Krong and more_people have just sat back and watched this argument unfold. There was no discussion from Krong over which scum team was more likely, he's just come in with one token effort that agreed with everything you said. There's been no discussion or reasoning from more_people at all. They've been sitting back, watching the townies fight and laughing.

In terms of it working out with BigNose, I think that was a different situation. There, we had a reasonably isolated situation - there was a limited amount of manipulation scum could have done. This situation is not at all isolated. You require the mod to have acted in a certain way which I consider highly unlikely. You require that neither scum noticed this coincidence and therefore killed off GoP instead of me or you (tbh I thought you were going to be killed because you were acting the most townie).

To he honest i think you're suffering from confirmation bias, you decided I was scum and now yu're interpreting everything in light of that.

Hence why I've asked for analysis. Although, I didn't decide that you were scum - I was leaning town on you until I saw the probabilities.

Well everything you've suggested about me so far, I see no reason why you wouldn't think they're things that town would do. You've made a reasonably plausible case that I could be scum, but nothing that suggests that I am.

My final suggestion is to look back at day 3, because there was plenty I did then that wouldn't make sense as scum. I put forward a clearly protown strategy nobody else had thought of. I picked bignose out before anyone else was suspicious of him.

True, but the suspicion of BigNose was only minor. I do consider this as a more towny action, but that does not preclude you being scum (BigNose made the table)

I agree, I'll leave it as a 'minorly townie action'.

Finally, can you give me any other example of a game where a mod was that lazy? I haven't been here long, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be common. Why woukd someone put so much effort into a game but neglect that simple and obviois thing?

I don't think that the probability is extremely high, but I also don't think that it is as low as 0.2%. Maybe dotproduct wasn't expecting that we'd figure out every single cop for each possible combination, or maybe he put it in for balance. By the way, I haven't been here long either.

I don't think it's as low as 0.2%, but I think it's at least less than 5%, based on the fact that a cursory look showed up no games where the alignments were sorted that way rather than randomly. Add to that the fact that it was explicitly stated that the roles were given out randomly and I think you've got an equally unlikely chance.

When I went back to re-read to confirm my suspicion that the scum had given the wrong results, I was obviously re-reading only the messages where those results were given. As such, I did not re-read the day start flavor.

Still, you must have scrolled past it, trying to find these. I will give you the benefit of the doubt on this one, however, unless more evidence comes to light regarding it. Your argument is still wrong, however.

Yes, I did the same thing when I agreed with his logic - I looked at the first post, didn't see any indication of what the result PMs would look like, and therefore assumed it wasn't given.

Krong planted the seed about how "scummy" I was very early, while consistently pointing out how "towny" more_people was. And if you've already decided that you trust him more than you do me, then wine wine wine.

He did, but maybe he thought that you were scummy. I did too, but I was distracted by more_people's lurking, and wanted him to post more. Not only that, but webby was planting suspicion as well, but of more_people.

I suggested that more_people was suspicious based on a very specific link between BigNose and more_people. It was a small thing, but I felt it worth mentioning at the time. Krong had no such reason to be suspicious of mpolo.

Scum ranking - 7.5

I don't blame you for this, I just hope that if Krong and more_people post the picture will become clearer for you.