[M] Wizardry Mafia 2.5 - Game Over! Town Wins!

[cjdrum]

Like I said, I joined to void a potential ModKill on some ass-wipe who couldn't be bothered to play.

I don't appreciate this, by the way.

[BoomFrog]

I went through to see people's reactions to _infina_ to look for scumtells. I started this like two days ago... :p

Spoiler:

JC is the first to seriously criticize _infina_'s analysis of Lataro - Major Townie points here
ForAllOfThis says the evidence against Lataro is weak, but still implies there is some evidence against him - Scummy
VectorZero harps on grammar - Scummy but also townie because he seems to care about the grammar more then using it as evidence so - Neutral
llamanaru agrees with JC that Lataro is not scummy, but ignores _infina_'s terrible analysis - Scummy
mpolo - defends Lataro somewhat, also ignores _infina_'s terrible analysis - Scummy
weiyaoli - ditto - slightly scummy
NaR - ditto - neutral (by now it is the topic of the conversation.)
Gopher of Pern FOS _infina_ for her presumption Lataro cast warped panacea. - This is bad logic on GoP's part, possible distancing, but it's bringing her back into the limelight after the discussion has moved away - Townie/Sorcerer
Adacore casts first vote at _infina_ - Very Townie
mpolo comments _infina_ is "looking funny" and will do a reread - slightly townie
ForAllOfThis votes _infina_ - Townie
BigNose says _infina_ is "player his style" but is not scummy - I don't know all the meta her but, slightly scummy (not that it matters now he's confirmed town/out of the game)
VectorZero votes Lataro on grammar evidence - scummy
weiyaoli votes _infina_ on the logic of GoP's FoS (bad logic in my opinion) at this point it's a bandwagon - slightly scummy
BigNose attacks the bad logic of weiyaoli's vote - neutral
weiyaoli defends his vote and logic - neutral
_infina_ defends
weiyaoli's origonal reason defeated he now brings up new reasons to vote infina (at least they are good reasons) - neutral
mpolo soft votes _infina_ but still hasn't done read through promised before - neutral
_infina_ OMGUS Adacore
Lataro votes _infina_for the OMGUS and "subtle offness". Not well justified and late to the bandwagon, could easily be distancing - Neutral
_infina_ implodes
greenlover get ninja'd by implosion but post within 8 minutes so I'll assume her post was legit. He defends _infina_ and was going to look else ware for scum - slightly townie
Misnomer, DBC, pile on the vote, leading to a possible early end of the day which is bad for town - slightly scummy
Lataro points this out but doesn't unvote, also asks for dispels which are a good idea but proved unnecessary - slightly townie

Summery:
Llamanaru's only contribution was to try to focus on Lataro and completely ignored _infina_. VectorZero was similar in effect with his grammar obsession. Misnomer, and DBC lurked through the debate then pile on at the end endangering town of losing opportunity to cast. I think DBC is town for other reasons but I'm suspicious of Misnomer's active lurkyness so far.

Mpolo was slightly scummy for not doing his promised reread but I believe that he was legitimately busy and I believe his current claim. Lataro, Greenlover, and GoP were slightly townie and Adacore and JC were extremely townie. Although sorcs have the same incentives as town here so they are not clear of all suspicion, especially GoP who used some bad logic against _infina_.

Van, Not A Raptor, PhoenixEnigma, and RoadieRich completely avoided the whole debate. Well except NaR who had one small comment about Lataro. Van and RR get a slight pass for being totally inactive, but NaR and PE are slightly scummy because of this.

Executive summery: Llamanaru, VectorZero, Misnomer, Not A Raptor, PhoenixEnigma. <----There's scum in there.

[Not A Raptor]

BoomFrog: I wanted more evidence. I have yet to see evidence. The equation hasn't changed regarding that debate, at least to me. So... why should I amend my earlier comment when I still consider it to hold true?

Other than that, your assessment strikes me as good work.

In other news, somebody throw Van a shield. Like, now. Instead of protecting herself, she chose to protect me. I scried with my little eye.

[VectorZero]

Someone's playing very strangely, then.

[Adacore]

Is there any reason for NaR to falseclaim that? Because I can't really think of one. It goes a fairly long way to confirming Van as town, and I was already pretty happy with NaR.

So if we believe everyone's confirms/reads of other players/claims, we have some evidence that these people are townies (or, at least, not-mafia; from most to least certain, imo):

mpolo (I'm pretty sure he was telling the truth about being a protector, there's an outside chance he's scum, but I don't buy it)
ForAllOfThis (from the first vote on infina, plus Lataro's bolster-AA-check, and his posts in general)
Not A Raptor (NaR has seemed townie to me, and he's been saved twice now by people I believe to be town)
Van (if we believe NaR's scrying claim, I see no reason to believe that Van isn't town)
Lataro (his D1 astral sense and claim, plus VZ's claimed cop)
Gopher of Pern (VZ's claimed cop result, could obviously be fooled by alter alignment or deception, which scum would probably have)
VectorZero (aside from the stuff with Lataro, he's seemed pretty townie, and he claimed two cops)
Adacore (? there's nothing really confirming me town, but most people seem to be getting a townie read from me)
BigNose (claims alchemist; we'll need to hear from Misnomer to know whether he got a potion, but I'm guessing that much, at least, is true)

Did I miss anyone out? There's almost certainly some scum in that list (I'm only really confident on the first 5, plus me), but I figure most of the scum are probably in the remaining player list of Boomfrog, Misnomer, PhoenixEnigma, DaBigCheez, llamanaru, greenlover, John Citizen and the possibly-soon-to-be-modkilled-if-he-isn't-missiled RoadieRich.

If Van is, in fact, somewhat-confirmed town, that certainly adds more weight to her accusation of BigNose. We've still not got any substance for that, though, have we?

[llamanaru]

You're talking about this right? I was gone for the end of D1 and I didn't bother to read the end of it when D2 started.

I'd like to see Van's analysis because apart from BigNose's aggressive behavior I'm not seeing the scum. Unless you're looking at the "don't save people" suggestion. That's definitely scummy. Come to think of it, he does seem to have a really defeatist attitude about this. I guess I can actually see BigNose's scum at least a little.

I'll shield Van after she posts her analysis of BigNose, or if the deadline approaches. Whichever comes first.

[BoomFrog]

llamanaru, I was talking about this bad analysis that infina made. (I don't know how to link to specific posts so I quoted it)

Spoiler:

All five of Lataro's posts in their entirety (except for a few spoiler tags). Most of them can be interpreted as both scummy and towny, depending on how you already look at him. I find them of no use to me, aside from the fact that not much can be made of them by me. I give them to the rest of you so as to ease your search for answers.

With only the grammar as evidence, I will not vote for Lataro yet, but will FoS: Lataro

JC does a counter analysis two posts later with Lataro as town and infina as scum. I think his analysis was quite good and am not sure how so many people ignored it. However, you, FOAT, VectorZero, mpolo, weiyaoli, and NaR all posted focusing on the Lataro aspect but ignoring the infina scummyness aspect. Obviously there are a couple confirmed town in that above list, but still I think it's a scumtell. With a lack of other posting your leaning on the scummy side of neutral.

The fact that BN has asked for a modkill in bold means it's a done deal. (and he's done almost the same in Maff Effect). He's virtually confirmed town and it doesn't matter because he's dead. Ideally he'll give us some info before he goes. However, I'd like to hear Van's reasons for suspecting him so strongly.

I doubt NaR would falseclaim since Van could counterclaim that so easily. So either NaR and Van are both bold and ballsy scum, or more likely NaR cast scry on Van and Van cast Shield on NaR.

Looks good for NaR, scry is a very townie move. Van's behavior is odd, although I've got a few possibilities in mind I'd rather wait for an explanation first.

[Misnomer]

I recieved a potion D1 - if BN is still hanging around, it would be nice of him to confirm my spellcasts.

@Boomfrog: Putting infina at L-4 is scummy? He wasn't at that point in any danger of being immediately lynched - it's ridiculous to say that I risked ending the day early.

[VectorZero]

llamanaru, I was talking about this bad analysis that infina made. (I don't know how to link to specific posts so I quoted it)

The post title is a hyperlink pointing at the post.

[BoomFrog]

llamanaru, I was talking about this bad analysis that infina made. (I don't know how to link to specific posts so I quoted it)

The post title is a hyperlink pointing at the post.

I'm still confused but will take it to the discussion thread to avoid off topicness.

I recieved a potion D1 - if BN is still hanging around, it would be nice of him to confirm my spellcasts.

I take this to mean you drank it and cast a townie type spell after. I don't think we need BN to claim exactly what you cast, just that it was a townie type of spell. Unnecessary spell claiming just gives scum hints to who is power town.

@Boomfrog: Putting infina at L-4 is scummy? He wasn't at that point in any danger of being immediately lynched - it's ridiculous to say that I risked ending the day early.

Your vote no, but your attitude yes. If others followed suit a couple votes later could have put us close to hammer. Don't forget that slight of hand exists, we could have had an invisible hammer end the day surprisingly early. However, I view your action as more likely to be enthusiastic town who's already cast their spells and didn't consider the danger of their action. On the other hand you had no other contribution to the infina lynch debate and the hasty vote isn't helping. So yes, in summery you are one of the scummiest players right now.

[BigNose]

If Van is, in fact, somewhat-confirmed town, that certainly adds more weight to her accusation of BigNose.

BOLLOX

The fact that BN has asked for a modkill in bold means it's a done deal.

Yes, I'd think that too.

I recieved a potion D1 - if BN is still hanging around, it would be nice of him to confirm my spellcasts.

It was a Scrying Potion and I have received no information back from it.

FYI, because I am fed up of not being believed:

Spell Armor
2x Shield
Detect Good
Panacea
Bolster
Extra Spell Slot Feat

None used.

[Aardvarki]

BigNose has been removed from the game.

Because we are short on replacements, Modkills will be dealt out at the end of the Phase.

[Lataro]

So... that was an interesting turn of events. Lets assume BN was telling the truth and is town for a moment.

Misnomer asked BN to confirm his spell casts before being removed, BN said Misnomer cast nothing.

Misnomer's request directly implies he cast something.

I can think of a few possibilities.

1. Someone AM fielded Misnomer or BN after he drank it. This seems rather unlikely, since neither died overnight, and that'd be about the only reason to AMF someone D1 that makes sense, unless you really just wanted to blow an AMF.
2. Misnomer cast a spell and scrying was dispelled from either of them before he did. Possible, though unlikely, as there seems to be no real gain made in this course of action.
3. Misnomer cast nothing, but wanted to imply that he had for some reason, either to test BN, or in the hopes that BN would be modkilled before he could state that Misnomer hadn't cast. Possible, but seems unnecessarily really.
4. Misnomer cast a spell, BN decided to lie about the spell. This seems the least likely since BN had no real reason to lie, especially the way he went out.


I'd say 3 is the most likely of the above, followed by 2. 4 seems very unlikely based on BN's actions not just here, but all over the mafia forum. I'd still put 1 as the least likely possibility due to it making no sense at all for someone to do that.

[BoomFrog]

Well before you go would you mind throwing a shield on someone, or detect good someone at least?

[Lataro]

Well before you go would you mind throwing a shield on someone, or detect good someone at least?

Word of MOD says he's removed, I doubt he can post or use abilities anymore. If he is town, he choose to go out in the worst possible way.

[BoomFrog]

EBWOP: I've got at least one alternate theory but I don't want to give Misnomer ideas.

I think at this point Misnomer should explicitly claim all his actions on D1. Anyone else want to confirm this is a good idea before he does it?

[VectorZero]

I'm finding it hard to objectively analyse Bignose (and by extension misnomer) here, since I'm modding Maff Effect where a similar thing occurred and I'm privy to extra information. I think I should sit this little bit out.

[Misnomer]

*hasty re-read of the scrying spell*

Ok, I see the confusion here - I hadn't realised that during the conversion from 2.0 to 2.5, scrying got changed from being a 2-cycle spell to a 2-phase spell. I was expecting BN to confirm that I hadn't cast anything up until I cast my shield today, but I realise now that the scrying effect would have worn off before he could detect my shield cast.

@Boomfrog: Putting infina at L-4 is scummy? He wasn't at that point in any danger of being immediately lynched - it's ridiculous to say that I risked ending the day early.

Your vote no, but your attitude yes. If others followed suit a couple votes later could have put us close to hammer. Don't forget that slight of hand exists, we could have had an invisible hammer end the day surprisingly early. However, I view your action as more likely to be enthusiastic town who's already cast their spells and didn't consider the danger of their action. On the other hand you had no other contribution to the infina lynch debate and the hasty vote isn't helping. So yes, in summery you are one of the scummiest players right now.

If others had followed suit, it would have been anti-town behaviour on their part, not mine. Putting infina at L-4 was in no way risky or dangerous. As for the lack of debate surrounding my vote - infina had already confessed, there was little else to say. True, prior to that I maybe could have looked at infina closer, but I was following other leads at the time (namely NAR's rescue from the missiles).

[Adacore]

Very quick thought of the day - if the shield potion in the alchemy list for D2 was brewed by the last remaining scum alchemist, then the scum will know for sure that any other potion they received was scrying and, thus, will try to use it to confirm their towniness by casting a townie spell. Certainly with three scrying potions brewed, anyone receiving a potion will assume it's scrying and, if they're not town, try and cast something to look like they are.

This, incidentally, is why I don't think all our potions should be scrying. If the scum know that they're getting scried then the scrying is far less useful.

[GLaDOS.]

This, incidentally, is why I don't think all our potions should be scrying. If the scum know that they're getting scried then the scrying is far less useful.

Just a quick thought, with hindsight this makes a lot of sense. I think D1 having scrying was a fairly useful tactic. Some defensive potions could be quite useful for us to have tomorrow.

It seems like the BN/Misnomer thing has been cleared up. However if adacore is right then Misnomer could have just drank the shield potion then claimed that, so it's not a perfect claim by any means. Lataro you were extremely quick to jump on Misnomer there though, especially as if BN is not town he has every reason to spill as much wine as possible before leaving the game. I'll be fairly quiet over the next few days as I'm in the middle of moving house.

[ForAllOfThis]

EBWOP: My bad, used the wrong account <.<.

This, incidentally, is why I don't think all our potions should be scrying. If the scum know that they're getting scried then the scrying is far less useful.

Just a quick thought, with hindsight this makes a lot of sense. I think D1 having scrying was a fairly useful tactic. Some defensive potions could be quite useful for us to have tomorrow.

It seems like the BN/Misnomer thing has been cleared up. However if adacore is right then Misnomer could have just drank the shield potion then claimed that, so it's not a perfect claim by any means. Lataro you were extremely quick to jump on Misnomer there though, especially as if BN is not town he has every reason to spill as much wine as possible before leaving the game. I'll be fairly quiet over the next few days as I'm in the middle of moving house.

[BoomFrog]

I am 99% sure that BN is town. If he pulled a massive forum wide raegquaat about not being believed and LIED in his goodbye post then, well, that's just ridiculous.

Misnomer's not looking very good right now. I'll probably do a full analysis of him after the weekend.

Still hoping to hear from Van, I know she's busy though.

[VectorZero]

The whole thing's pretty ridiculous.

[Van]

The whole thing's pretty ridiculous.

+1

Sigh. It's sort of pointless to get into an extended debate now that BN managed to off himself in the worst way possible, but gragh. I tried, but I'm sort of in the same boat VZ is in - it deals with meta content from an active game, and I really can't get in to that, but I'm also fairly sure he's not town (or wasn't). I think he's irritated scum that got annoyed at getting caught, but kept it up till the bitter end. It's not entirely the suggestion and argue it strongly, that's pretty much the gold standard for BN, but the tone and wording. And the table. Table is definitely off. I guess it's worth pointing out my BN view isn't spell motivated. If I was going to cop someone, I'd use a fireball. Fireballs don't lie.

Since BN killed himself and Lataro is off the table, I want to get back to the D1 PMs. I'll work on an exclusion list for scum in the morning.

[VectorZero]

Fireballs don't lie.

Sig'd.

[DaBigCheez]

Frankly, any posts along the lines of "I think BN is town/I do not think BN is town" made *after* his exit from the game are pure wine; the only consideration I will give them is a
Minor FoS: BoomFrog
and a
Minor FoS: Van
for spilling wine around this topic. I believe BoomFrog's town due to the excellent contributions I've seen so far, and while I haven't seen enough from Van to really get anything solid (I'm slightly suspicious of her, but not much), her initial post regarding her BigNose read was before he exited, and thus is not suspicious - her later post was mainly explaining that (while not explaining very much, but still), so I can see it as being legitimate.

llamanaru, on the other hand, seems to be hedging his bets on the topic at the same time as lurking to a fairly extensive degree. I will try and focus more on this soon.

I'm willing to believe NaR's claim if Van backs it up; it links them together strongly enough that if it is a scum gambit, it's an incredibly risky one, and one independent checks could easily unravel. I'm kind of intrigued Van didn't mention it at all, though. I'm still trying to tease out what it means for their alignments - I don't think Van would have known NaR was scrying her, barring other info that we don't have, so it would have to be random chance or a gambit through other means. I think it sets Van as town more strongly than it does NaR, but I'm still only at "leaning town" for both of them (due to a little leftover suspicion of Van from earlier) - I wouldn't consider either confirmed, by a long shot, and I don't think that it even implies that if one is scum the other must be as well. So, I think the claim is pretty likely true, but I'm not sure it means much of anything beyond "Van cast a shield on NaR".

[BoomFrog]

The reason I thought his towniness is relevant is because it pertains to if we can trust his statements, which was in direct reply to Lataro and FOAT's conjecturing.

If you brew a potion of scrying and give it to someone will you be told when they drink it even if they haven't cast any spells yet?

If you scry on someone who has deception up and then casts an illusion and then a normal spell, (say Arcane Voice, then Shield) it would report Shield cast or nothing cast?

[BoomFrog]

EBWOP: Van, why did you shield NaR instead of yourself? You, from your view, are guaranteed town, at best NaR is likely town.

[ForAllOfThis]

Right, back home settled in and ready to post.

I still have a bad feeling about DBC, which I have had since the start of the game. He FoS's Boomfrog yet says he thinks Boomfrog is town immediately after. I see it almost as a distancing attempt which then is covered by saying "I think he is town", to stop any ramifications. That makes them potential scum buddies. I've only seen him play as town in other games so I don't know what his scum style is like. I guess this could be it, he chalked it up to being excited about the game but I find that any mafia game is always more exciting playing as scum. At the moment he is still the one I feel most uneasy about right now. I'm a little worried that the uneasy feeling might be skewing my analysis though.

[VectorZero]

Ok, putting this out there:

If anyone thinks I should be lynched, for whatever reason, speak up now. If there's an informal lynch against me, I'll cast a shield on someone else or do something, whatever, and let the MM hit me, so we can lynch someone else. If I'm not going to be lynched, I'll shield myself.

This day is dragging on. As I said earlier, I can't really comment on the Misnomer/BigNose thing. I think Van's actions are peculiar, as Boomfrog pointed out, but nothing scummy per se. NaR has now been saved by two other individuals, hopefully with good reason.

GoP, and greenlover have been lurking/flying under the radar, PE and JC to a lesser extent, as well as RR ?facing modkill. Bah. I'm sure some of the active players are scum, purely through increased interest, but noone specifically jumps out. Generally, adacore's been very helpful, mpolo and Van seems townie for the NaR save, NaR seems NaRish (I'm pretty neutral here actually, I don't quite see why he's been saved twice), Lataro's contributions have been very townie (grammar notwithstanding), Boomfrog has been giving some good vibes recently, DBC probably warrants a more thorough analysis, as does misnomer, llamanaru offered to shield someone, and i'm awesome.

So, I might look at some of DBC, misnomer, llamanaru and NaR tomorrow.

[Aardvarki]

If you brew a potion of scrying and give it to someone will you be told when they drink it even if they haven't cast any spells yet?

If you scry on someone who has deception up and then casts an illusion and then a normal spell, (say Arcane Voice, then Shield) it would report Shield cast or nothing cast?

The alchemist is not notified when the person they give a potion to drinks that potion. Not even for scrying.

Deception simply ignores the illusion spell. Scrying would still function (assuming its duration hadn't expired) on the Shield, in the example you gave.

[Lataro]

Ok, putting this out there:

If anyone thinks I should be lynched, for whatever reason, speak up now. If there's an informal lynch against me, I'll cast a shield on someone else or do something, whatever, and let the MM hit me, so we can lynch someone else. If I'm not going to be lynched, I'll shield myself.

This day is dragging on. As I said earlier, I can't really comment on the Misnomer/BigNose thing. I think Van's actions are peculiar, as Boomfrog pointed out, but nothing scummy per se. NaR has now been saved by two other individuals, hopefully with good reason.

GoP, and greenlover have been lurking/flying under the radar, PE and JC to a lesser extent, as well as RR ?facing modkill. Bah. I'm sure some of the active players are scum, purely through increased interest, but noone specifically jumps out. Generally, adacore's been very helpful, mpolo and Van seems townie for the NaR save, NaR seems NaRish (I'm pretty neutral here actually, I don't quite see why he's been saved twice), Lataro's contributions have been very townie (grammar notwithstanding), Boomfrog has been giving some good vibes recently, DBC probably warrants a more thorough analysis, as does misnomer, llamanaru offered to shield someone, and i'm awesome.

So, I might look at some of DBC, misnomer, llamanaru and NaR tomorrow.

As much as my mind is screaming scummy mcscum for what has happened D1, at this time with nothing further to go on, I'd not vote your way. You've claimed at least being able to cast twice per cycle, and two detect goods, there is room to catch any lies there with more info down the road. I'd still place you on the darker side of neutral, but would rather not vote based on that. I'd say save yourself.

On that note, I think people should claim when and on who they are casting shield, before actually casting it, and that only one should be cast between mod messages of spells cast. I'll explain why using VZ shielding himself as an example.

VZ cast shield at himself, it's an IM not a MM, and there is a trigger for it to dispel once shielded against. Magically, a MM stops following someone else at the same time. BAM, scum. IM is NOT a townie spell at all, as it is asking for town to give you a shield for no good reason. We can then lynch the crap out of the person who got dispelled without any real reason why they should have been dispelled.


I'd say the Boomfrog/Misnomer back and forth has left Boomfrog looking worse than Misnomer.

@Boomfrog: Putting infina at L-4 is scummy? He wasn't at that point in any danger of being immediately lynched - it's ridiculous to say that I risked ending the day early.

Your vote no, but your attitude yes. If others followed suit a couple votes later could have put us close to hammer. Don't forget that slight of hand exists, we could have had an invisible hammer end the day surprisingly early. However, I view your action as more likely to be enthusiastic town who's already cast their spells and didn't consider the danger of their action. On the other hand you had no other contribution to the infina lynch debate and the hasty vote isn't helping. So yes, in summery you are one of the scummiest players right now.

If others had followed suit, it would have been anti-town behaviour on their part, not mine. Putting infina at L-4 was in no way risky or dangerous. As for the lack of debate surrounding my vote - infina had already confessed, there was little else to say. True, prior to that I maybe could have looked at infina closer, but I was following other leads at the time (namely NAR's rescue from the missiles).

I think this exchange sums it up, and in it, I think Misnomer is making a more than reasonable argument. Boomfrog's next post continues with unspecified mistrust of Misnomer, complete with promise of a full analysis after the weekend. I'd be interesting to see what he has to say in that post. As is, I'm left feeling like Misnomer answered the charges as best he could. As to the scrying confusion, WTH Misnomer? This is a very simple game, just ask Van, how can you be confused by it? In seriousness though, I accept his explanation. The fact that he appears to have no D1/N1 casts to me makes him look better, but only ever so slightly.

[DaBigCheez]

In response to FAOT:

Spoiler:

To clarify, the "Slight FoS" is meant to have approximately the same impact as a "Slightly Scummy" action during an analysis read-through would be - it's taken into account when forming the final opinion. If it makes you more comfortable, you can parse the post as a not-particularly-in-depth read of the two of them, i.e.

BoomFrog:
Puts forth a good deal of useful content and analyses (townie)
Spills wine about BigNose (slightly scummy)
Overall verdict: Moderate town lean

Van:
Earlier posts make me slightly uncomfortable gut-wise (slightly scummy)
Spills wine about BigNose read (slightly scummy)
Reason for spilling wine was to clarify and elaborate on an earlier-promised analysis (slightly townie)
Overall verdict: Slight scum lean, not enough data to really get much
(Van then cast shield on NaR, raising her to "slightly town", and NaR's scrycast/confirm raising him from "neutral" to "slightly town" - this was in a later part of the post than the FoS)

Does that clear things up a bit about my intentions? (Fine if you think that putting such a surface-level analysis out there is unhelpful, or wish to interpret it as distancing; that's your prerogative, but I don't think it's backtracking or waffling, it's trying to incorporate multiple data points into a read.)

Have been lurking a fair bit the past few days due largely to a desire not to get involved in the weirdness surrounding BigNose's exit, so I think it's high time I did as mentioned earlier and put out an analysis on llamanaru. Now, I know some others had expressed a desire to analyze him as well. I am under scrutiny and most of the other analysis-proposers are less so, so I'll do it first. Then we can see whether my analysis horribly disagrees with that of everyone else, without me being influenced by existing ones Well, here goes!

llamanaru:
First thing I noticed is the lack of posts. Here, I will quote llamanaru's *entire* post history for this game here, for easy reference, since it's easily short enough:

Spoiler:

Confirming. Egosearching and:

Does bolster work on an alchemist's potion?

Sorry, I've been in the same boat as greenlover. {DBC Clarification: 'same boat' here refers to 'sorry for absence, life got busy'}

I think that the grammar in the echos that VectorZero pointed out isn't all that incriminating because it's one of the easier grammar errors to fake. However, Lataro's overreaction was incriminating, because town wouldn't have reason to do that. Perhaps it's just his style, I've not played enough games with him to know.

Ninja'd by RoadieRich. Your suggestion about Lataro's codewords seems plausible. Though it could just be scum trying to give doubt to the codewords so we disregard them.

I have to agree with FAOT and JC here. I went and looked at some of Lataro's older games, and this reaction (the primary point against him in my book) seems normal for him. So PheonixEnigma was correct and to me Lataro starting to look neutral at worst because of what other people have gone over. I pretty much agree with JC's analysis, though the points he put as slightly townie are either neutral or very slightly townie for me.

I too have a problem with that line of reasoning {DBC clarification: this is referring to greenlover's "you saw what no one else could see, and thus you must either be a grammar teacher or have inside knowledge" towards VZ}; Wizards can't be "grammar teachers". In seriousness though, drawing in outside knowledge of that sort is not at all a solid argument. It's entirely possible to notice grammar while being a math professor, or a train operator. So it's entirely possible that VZ was just observant. That seems like an argument you put together because you couldn't keep up your attack and needed something to post.

DaBigCheez: You're suggesting that we cast a spell then claim it, correct?

You're talking about this right? I was gone for the end of D1 and I didn't bother to read the end of it when D2 started.

I'd like to see Van's analysis because apart from BigNose's aggressive behavior I'm not seeing the scum. Unless you're looking at the "don't save people" suggestion. That's definitely scummy. Come to think of it, he does seem to have a really defeatist attitude about this. I guess I can actually see BigNose's scum at least a little.

I'll shield Van after she posts her analysis of BigNose, or if the deadline approaches. Whichever comes first.

And now for trying to decide what I think the posts actually mean

Spoiler:

There's a fair bit of waffling here (mmmm, waffles): "RR has plausible suggestions about codewords, though it could be a scum ploy", "BigNose doesn't seem like scum, but actually he does" and also a fair bit of just agreeing with others: "I too have a problem with that", "I agree with FAOT and JC", "PE was correct"...as for original contributions, all I'm seeing is "VZ might have just been observant", which isn't exactly a radical and controversial stand to make.

I don't see the backtracking on Lataro opinion as scummy, given that it's "This feels scummy, but I don't know his meta"; "OK, I researched his meta and it fits, so it doesn't seem to be a scumtell for him".

I have a hard time getting too bent out of shape about the waffling, since I have a bad habit of doing that myself; agreeing with others isn't in and of itself scummy, but doing so in lieu of putting forth any original points, esp. combined with lurking, doesn't look good to me.

I'm somewhat intrigued by llamanaru's reads of other people. There's no real strong read given, which seems scummy for the most part, but there's more "light defense" of others than I'd expect from scum play - a kind of "Eh, there seems to be plausible doubt here" with respect to Lataro and VZ. As far as attacks, there was a "Lataro's reaction is incriminating" (later withdrawn after meta study), a "greenlover seems to be kinda grasping for attacks to post", and flipfloppery about BigNose. I think the Lataro one was a "safe" accusation at the time, and the greenlover one's relatively "putting forth an actual opinion" but did come immediately after a post (of mine) disliking greenlover's argument.

As far as the BigNose one, though, how did I miss that when I was doing my earlier post FoSing BoomFrog and Van for wine about BigNose? This is, like, a hundred-year-old bottle of pinot noir. It combines "let's post something about the alignment of a player who we know is about to die" with "well he seems kinda townie but he also seems kinda scummy so I was right however he flips" for a full-bodied, fruity flavor best paired with aged cheeses and a bread platter. Normally I'd consider the ambivalence a slight mitigating factor as compared to expressions of certainty, but with sorcs in the game I think scum might stick with this ambiguity.

Overall, I'm coming out to "moderate scum lean" on llamanaru. There's lots of little things in there that I consider scummy - but none of them are really strong, and all of them have mitigating factors. There's severe lurkage, but that isn't in and of itself a scumtell. There's some focus on the Lataro debate, but that's in large part due to posting times. There's "safe" accusations and defenses, but I'd think scum would pile on an existing bandwagon harder. The going along with others and lack of original content is the least mitigated one.

Verdict: Moderate Scum Lean
I believe there is a decent chance llamanaru is scum, and would support an llamanaru lynch today in absence of a more certain target. In the future, I would like to further look at greenlover, VectorZero, Van, and NaR - I don't find any of them particularly scummy at the moment, but there's sufficient oddness there that I think it deserves a closer look.

And yes, I did indeed lurk through a fair bit of the debate D1 and then place a vote on _infina_ - I'd miscounted votals and believed us to be one further from lynch than we were (thinking my vote brought him to L-4 rather than L-3), but would have placed the vote even with correct counting. I don't *think* I would have placed the vote if it would have brought him to L-2 due to risk of speedhammer, but I'm not sure - frankly, it didn't seem to me like there was much left to discuss during D1, but I would have held off to allow people to get off any last daycasts they wanted.

Anyone else have opinions on either llamanaru or me?

[Van]

Fireballs don't lie.

Sig'd.

I so don't get this. I have been on the internet for at least 400 years, and yet the only time I've ever been quoted in a signature is in Wizardry games. CONFUSED.

I'm willing to believe NaR's claim if Van backs it up; it links them together strongly enough that if it is a scum gambit, it's an incredibly risky one, and one independent checks could easily unravel. I'm kind of intrigued Van didn't mention it at all, though.

I did Shield NAR. He's either psychotic, or is looking in my windows or something. Could be either. Equally likely. I didn't mention it because I still haven't decided what my stance on The Announcing is. I'm ferociously against announcing who I believe to be town, so for him to randomly go "HAY GUYYYYS VAN IS (probably) TOWN" irks me about as much as a cop doing the same.

I mean, I get him Scrying me, I'm a pretty logical target for being devious and nefarious and otherwise scheming in dastardly ways and stuff, it's just the claim that really bugs me.


So anyway, to return to my idea from yesterday: I think we can narrow down the scum team possibles pretty significantly by only making a few extremely large assumptions. Observe!

Group A
1. Van
5. Adacore
20. Lataro

Group B
6. VectorZero
7. Not A Raptor
19. John Citizen
10. mpolo
12. DaBigCheez

Group C
2.Dark Loink BoomFrog
8. Misnomer
9. PhoenixEnigma
13. FAOT
14. llamanaru
16. Weeks Gopher of Pern
17. RoadieRich
18. greenlover

Dead and/or Lamepants
15. infina DEAD
3. dotproduct
11. weiyaoli
4. cjdrum BigNose

What method can we use to determine who is scum? The scum PMs! Specifically, the cryptography. Either the key was a fake (unlikely), or there was simply no planning and (apparently) no one that said "hey, um, guys..." There are a couple people I can immediately discount as being scumscum based off that (but keep in mind, none of this applies to sorcerers): myself, Lataro, and Adacore. Also, Elvish Pillager, but he isn't even in this game. We would have had a cow. Maybe several cows.

I think there is a very strong chance the following people are veteran enough, logic prone enough, and spend enough time planning/scheming to interrupt something like this pretty early on (but I'm not as positive): VectorZero, NAR, John Citizen, mpolo, DaBigCheez. If I had to put odds on any one of them being scum, it would be <5% vs pretty close to 0 for group A.

Which means, according to The Sacred Tome of Assumptions, we can then narrow the potential scum list to just Group C. And then we can then also assume that as we have lynched 1 scum so far, we have at least two and at most 4 (mafia) remaining. My personal guess is that we have 3, and BN was one of them. My gut says FAOT and ...I'm not sure who.

Thoughts?

[mpolo]

Well. I'm back from the weekend, but it's 11:30, and I'm getting up at 4:30 -- the car we were following had a very lame GPS device: there I was looking at our Autobahn on-ramp, while we merrily took a 90-km detour through the back roads of Germany.

More tomorrow.

[DaBigCheez]

Van, to reiterate an earlier question:

Why did you choose to shield NaR with a missile still following you?

[Not A Raptor]

Here's my explanation for my busting in and announcing your shieldcast, Van. I consider stopping in to shield somebody to be a townie move unless it's scum shielding scum. As I know my own alignment, I put you (Van) as pretty close to confirmed town. At least in my eyes. There is a usefulness in this, as it narrows down the list of people who could be scum... which is something you seem to be doing right now. I don't see how it should irk you, but there it is.

[DaBigCheez]

NaR: Claiming also outs a confirmed (to you) town so they can be easily targeted for the NK with a minimum of hassle. That'd be my guess as far as Van's irked-dom.

Of course, her still having a missile staying on target provides a motivation for the claim.

[Adacore]

I mostly agree with Van's analysis, in honesty. Although I can see it is possible, given she wasn't around all that much earlier, that she's publicly venting her frustration at the cryptography used by scum-buddies. I'm not sure I entirely agree on all her picks for Group B/C.

For me, I'm happy to assume, for now, that myself, Lataro, mpolo, NaR, VectorZero and Van are town. I'm beginning to lean town on DaBigCheez as well. I have suspicions of llamanaru, and I've got a strong hunch that at least one of FAOT and Gopher of Pern are scumsters, but it is just a hunch. BoomFrog, Misnomer and PhoenixEnigma, I would say, are on the scummy side of neutral for me. I don't have any opinion on RoadieRich or greenlover.

None of that is really confirmed town/scum, though - the closest is mpolo as near-confirmed town. It's also worth noting that Lataro is 100% confirmed non-sorceror due to the arcane sense, so if he's not scum, then he's definitely town. Is there anyone else we've arcane-sensed at least one spell from?

I think our best lynches today would probably be FAOT or llamanaru. I almost posted a vote for llamanaru earlier (in a similarly flippant fashion to my vote for infina yesterday), but decided it was maybe not the best plan.

Also, while Van's "Fireballs don't lie" quote did crack me up, I think it works far better with the preceding sentence: "If I was going to cop someone, I'd use a fireball. Fireballs don't lie."

[DaBigCheez]

As long as we're going with lists of suspicions...llamanaru tops my list at "moderate scum". greenlover I'd say is leaning scum, no opinion on GoP/Misnomer, leaning moderate town on BoomFrog.

So, my current suspicions list (incredibly subjective, I only have actual reads on about half the people):

Spoiler:

---SCUM---
llamanaru
greenlover
FAOT
VectorZero
GoP
Misnomer
RoadieRich
---NEUTRAL---
John Citizen
VectorZero
Adacore
PhoenixEnigma
Not A Raptor
Van
BoomFrog
Lataro
mpolo
---TOWN---