xkcd

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:30 am UTC

...

you're probably right, i'm making too much of this

I'm just pissed off that there's been pretty little content, i make a few suggestions that get either ignored or accepted without comment (which is just as bad) and we're heading rapidly to a deadline with no plan.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:33 am UTC

If i've got this right, cjdrum and wei are in favour of NL, ibarra and I are pro lynch (but without much of a target), and mpolo's still AFK. Not sure that helps much.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:16 am UTC

By my count, we've got about 6.5 hours to go, so it'd be good to get some input...

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:18 am UTC

EBWOP: err, my system clock and forum clock seem to disagree, and it may only be 5.5 hours. Confirmation, please?

by **Ibarra** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:50 am UTC

True that at the moment, we don't have a target for a lynch, but worst case scenario (no appropriate lynch target at all), since the odds for both lynching and no-lynching are almost the same, we can no-lynch instead. Though I'd really prefer a lynch to give voting information.

Regarding cjdrum vs VectorZero:
I have to agree that what cjdrum suggested about no-lynching once then lynching at MY-LO was suspicious. The excuse of cjdrum of being confused seems too "easily justifiable?" (Sorry, can't think of the best term to put there),but then again, it could be a mistake as he claims.
I don't think however, that misreading the rules on something like unvoting is suspicious.

by **cjdrum** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:08 am UTC

I agree: Mis-/Not reading a rule is not at all a scumtell.

However, it may or may not become a valid point - which is the strongest tell I've gotten off of anybody.

Also: I will likely not be online at deadline - I'll try, but for now
vote: No Lynch

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:12 pm UTC

cjdrum wrote:I agree: Mis-/Not reading a rule is not at all a scumtell.

However, it may or may not become a valid point

How?!

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:12 pm UTC

Well, unless mpolo shows up we won't get a majority in favour of NL 2X or Lynch. I don't think I would be happy with lynching cjdrum based on what we have so far though.

I'll try to check through your maths now VZ.

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:37 pm UTC

Lynch/lynch has 1/5 + (4/5 * 1/3) = 7/15 chance of randomly lynching scum, with an a priori (1/2 * 4/5 * 1/3 * 2/3) = 4/45 chance of the doctor protecting against the NK and the same of the cop finding scum (50:50 cop or doctor, 4/5 we didn't lynch the power role, 1/3 they targeted the right person, 2/3 they didn't get NKd). Not outstanding odds, but not bad: ~29/45 of good outcome (not taking into account copdoctoring the random lynch target, so actual odds less than this.)
NL/NL/lynch has 5/15 chance of randomly hitting scum, (1/2 * 3/4 * 1/4) = 3/32 chance of doctor protecting kill N1, same of cop finding scum N1, (1/2 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2) = 1/8 chance of doctor protecting target N2, same for cop. (I think my numbers are a little off, I think i'm doubling up on the chance the SK kills the N1 power role target ... could someone look over this?) (5/15 + 11/32, or roughly 20/32 of a result.)

Yep, 7/15 chance if we random lynch to hit scum.

3/5 (Not lynching either scum or doctor) * 1/2 * 1/3 ^2 (Doctor targeted right person) = 1/30 successful protect

3/5 (Not lynching either scum or cop) * 1/2 * 1/3 (They targeted scum) * 2/3 (They weren't NKed) = 1/15 chance of finding scum

Those were what I got (Main difference is that I don't think it matters if the doctor is NKed, although I think I didn't take into account the scenarios where if the scum targeted the doctor and the fact that it was 3/5 since we would have won if we randomly lynched scum)

NL has 1/3 chance to randomly hit scum I think, since it only matters what happens D3 if we go through that route.

Doctor protecting kill N1:
1/4 (Right target) ^ 2 (By both doctor and scum) *1/2 = 1/32 chance of successful protect N1.

Doctor protecting kill N2:
1/3 ^2 * 3/4 (Not NKed N1) * 1/2 = 1/24 chance of successful protect N2

Cop copping scum N1 and surviving to D2:
1/2 * 1/4 * 3/4 = 3/32 chance

Cop copping scum N2:
3/4 (Wrong target N1) * (3/4 * 2/3) (Not getting killed both nights) * 1/3 (right target N2) = 1/8 chance..?

What did we do differently?

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:39 pm UTC

EBWOP:

I will be on near deadline and am planning to vote NL unless we have a lynch target agreed before then somehow.

Ibarra wrote: Though I'd really prefer a lynch to give voting information.

What information are you going to gain from lynching? We only have the 1 sk.

by **Ibarra** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:58 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:What information are you going to gain from lynching? We only have the 1 sk.

How a certain person reacts to a vote on another. Does he react by bandwagoning? Being against it? Not commenting on it at all? etc.
All these things may help in determining who the SK is. IMO they're more solid than a protect or investigate that may not give information.

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:02 pm UTC

Ibarra wrote:
weiyaoli wrote:What information are you going to gain from lynching? We only have the 1 sk.

How a certain person reacts to a vote on another. Does he react by bandwagoning? Being against it? Not commenting on it at all? etc.
All these things may help in determining who the SK is. IMO they're more solid than a protect or investigate that may not give information.

We can get all of those things through informal voting though (except maybe bandwagoning to a lesser degree since people can still jump on suspicions).

by **Ibarra** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:17 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:We can get all of those things through informal voting though (except maybe bandwagoning to a lesser degree since people can still jump on suspicions).

Informal voting does not offer a flip at the end. Example: What if someone jumped on a bandwagon of a person (who flipped townie) without so much as a reason? Same thing goes with a person who didn't comment on the lynch at all, or a person who defended the lynched. You can get more info if there's a lynch + flip involved.

On the other hand, with informal voting and no-lynching, the only way to confirm someone's role is if he gets NK'd and thus his role will flip.
As I've said, IMO the info we gain from voting patterns is more solid than merely Night Actions, and a way of drawing that out better is if we get a flip.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:44 pm UTC

Wei: when calculating the (doctor choosing the right target), it's not (1/(n-1))^2. For instance, doctor protecting N1 after NL, you've got listed a "both chose the right target" and assigned a (1/4)^2. That's wrong. Doctor has 1/4 chance of choosing a target that's not him, scum has 3/4 chance of not hitting the doctor, so 3/16, not 1/16. Those are the relevant numbers. (Call the players 1A, 2B, 3C, 4D and 5E. 1A is the doctor, and will choose targets from 2, 3, 4 or 5. 5E is the scum, and will choose targets from A, B, C and D. There are 16 combinations of those 4 numbers and 4 letters, and 3 of them represent a successful protect: 2B, 3C, 4D.)

I did make the mistake of not accounting for lynching the scum when calculating the probability of the coptor (it'll be a thing) striking gold, so my estimates for a good outcome with lynch/lynch are too high in favor of town.

When our powers combine...

3/5 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 2/3 = 1/15 chance of successful protect after a lynch, same of successful cop.

After NL:
1/4 * 3/4 * 1/2 = 3/32 chance of successful protect after first no lynch, same of successful cop.
1/4 (8/32) chance of power role being killed
If vanilla NK, 1/9 chance of doctor protecting N2, better than that for cop since won't recop same player if still alive. Cumulatively: (21/32 * 1/3 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 7/96) for successful doctor, similar for cop.
1/3 chance of power role being killed N2 (cumulative 3/4 * 1/3 = 1/4)

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:46 pm UTC

EBWOP:

Meant to say, hope people notice that 7/15 > 1/3, so without the power role the lynching is better already. Does the chance of an extra night of power role action outweigh that benefit, taking into account wine?

by **_infina_** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:57 pm UTC

The arguing lasted until late in the evening.An agreement was finally made when someone said that they should sleep on it.
With that settled, they all went to sleep for the night, except for two. Those two stayed up late, plotting against each other.

Morning rose on the second day, and they notices someone had been disconnected and had left a little notice saying "LAG!"

mpolo is now disconnected. Vanilla Town.

Aside from the missing Norse God, everyone was fine.

It is now Day 2. 4 players, 3 to lynch.

Votes:
VectorZero - 1 (VectorZero)
cjdrum - 1 (cjdrum)
weiyaoli - 1 (weiyaoli)
Ibarra - 1 (Ibarra)

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:23 pm UTC

I guess we wait and see if there was a scum cop last night. Interesting kill of mpolo though, since he was absent for the whole of D1.

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:24 pm UTC

Gives no info. Ideal for scum.

No cop results here.

by **mpolo** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:30 pm UTC

I did say that I wasn't going to be around for the weekend...

by **VectorZero** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:30 pm UTC

Err, just realized something, and I can't believe I didn't see this earlier. At 2-1, we're going to have a vote on ourselves at day start. Scum can post for a quick win. Even one townie shifting their vote to no lynch is no good.

Do we start with a vote on ourselves at 2-1?

If so, cjdrum was right, and a lynch today is best.

That sucks. I shouldn't play mafia half asleep.

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:03 am UTC

mpolo wrote:I did say that I wasn't going to be around for the weekend...

A quick post of I'm back would have worked prior to the deadline...
You will reconnect in <48 Hours. MYLO

VectorZero wrote:Do we start with a vote on ourselves at 2-1?

Yes.

by **cjdrum** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:05 am UTC

Mod: Was mpolo modkilled or nightkilled?

I had assumed that it was a scum kill, but the talk of reconnecting is bugging me...

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:08 am UTC

cjdrum wrote:Mod: Was mpolo modkilled or nightkilled?

mpolo was a modkill. Failure to post in the generous time extended for him. mpolo lagged out.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:44 am UTC

Sooo ... the doctor doctored? Care to share?

Please clarify 'reconnect in <48 hours'. I understand that days go for 48 hours, but this game could go for longer, yes?
In addition, could you please describe what would occur if there was one town, one scum left D3?

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:51 am UTC

I sincerely doubt that this will drag on for a D3. But, then I am viewing it from above, with the knowledge I have about roles, actions and play-styles that will most likely be used.
:twisted:

by **cjdrum** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:04 am UTC

Okay, so...

I'm hesitant about the Doctor claiming who they protected, as it is only one confirmed Town out of four players (3 for each POV).
Also, it may be the case that the SK decided to not send a kill, in order to possibly send the Town on a wild goose chase with "confirmed" Town.

However, I think that even if the Doctor was to claim today and was killed tonight, that is one confirmed Town in a 2-1 endgame - which guarantees a Town win if the other, non-confirmed Townie is going to be the first online.

Wait.
First point: negated by that third point, IMHO.
Second point: it would be kind of useless to do that - there's only a 50% chance of a Doctor, which only has a 33% chance of targetting the SK while they don't kill. This is only a 17.5% chance that the gambit will work. Plus it's a free double lynch for Town.
- - - - - However, I think that after a NL, not killing anyone would not change the game against them, so a 1/6 chance is worth taking.

I don't think that the Doctor should claim their target, but am open to other opinions. What do you guys think?

Ninja'd by the mod: Maybe the Doctor... should... claim? Unless infina is viewing this the other way, which has the Doctor claiming a target, and the SK wiping out Town because of that...
Hmm....

Okay, now I'm just tangenting (to an extent), and I think playing "Outguess the Mod" isn't the most intelligent game to play based on an ambiguous statement.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:03 am UTC

Err, its 1 confirmed town and a power role claim: either the scum counter claims doctor and we lynch one of the claimed doctors at 50:50, or they don't and we lynch one of the people not protected. Then if we fail, we still get a shot tomorrow, at 50:50 first to post. I believe.

VectorZero wrote:In addition, could you please describe what would occur if there was one town, one scum left D3?

You didn't answer this.

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:18 am UTC

Perhaps I did, and you did not notice. Scum win condition is 50% of the vote, so I don't get asked again.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:14 am UTC

...

No, pretty sure not.

Anyhoo, just to clarify, scum wins at 1-1 even though the town player could get a lynch by voting first?

by **mpolo** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:09 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:
mpolo wrote:I did say that I wasn't going to be around for the weekend...

A quick post of I'm back would have worked prior to the deadline...

Here it was a long weekend, and I really posted as soon as I got here. But no big deal.

by **weiyaoli** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:59 am UTC

So we are currently at 3-1. If we lynch wrongly, scum definitely win. If we NL, then it turns into the scum wins when they get on. Neither are particularly good scenarios.

Can SKs withhold kills?

I think guys, we should ask the power role to claim. This is my reasoning:

If the power role claims, we should get a counter claim. Therefore, if the sk kills anyone but the power role, the power role knows who to lynch D3 and if the sk kills the power role, both vanilla townies knows who to lynch D3. The huge flaw is that scum can still win by getting on earliest/before the power role. Also, even if we don't go through this route, it does narrow the lynch targets down to 2 which is much more useful.

However, I do think maybe a lynch would be better today, because otherwise we are sort of just hoping that the scum doesn't get on early which is a lame win to lose or win.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:24 am UTC

Wei: apparently 1-1 is a town loss, and 2-1 is a loss if the SK gets on first. We need to do this now.

Doc claims, we lynch.

by **cjdrum** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:53 am UTC

Doc claims weiyaoli protect.
(i.e. I am the Doctor, and I protected weiyaoli last night)

We kill one of Ibarra and VectorZero.

Thinking VZ. Only gut. Will attempt at analyses some time soon.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:54 am UTC

Given Ibarra is not around, we must wait for a possible counter claim.

I'm not the copter.

by **Ibarra** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:12 am UTC

Vote: VZ

I'm not the doctor, ergo if cjdrum is really the Doctor, VZ is scum.
I don't think that Mafia would no action, and even if they did, the chances of the doctor protecting scum (and clearing them) is 1/5.
I'm more inclined to believe that VZ is indeed scum.

by **VectorZero** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:28 am UTC

Ibarra wrote:I don't think that Mafia would no action, and even if they did, the chances of the doctor protecting scum (and clearing them) is 1/5.

1/4, not 1/5. Doctor won't self target. I'm inclined to agree that the SK probably tried to kill; the risk of a cop being present means at N1 after a NL it would've been very risky to not kill.

Vote: No lynch

That should get me off hammer.

I think cjdrum must be the doctor; everyone has had a chance to claim (weiyaoli hasn't explicitly done so, but i'm inferring he is not from his argument that the doctor should claim. It's unlikely he's scum withholding the kill since he pushed for a doctor claim prior to knowing who the doctor targeted, but not a certainty. More thought on this warranted.)

From my point of view, Ibarra is probably the SK. I'm trying to figure out how we can use another NL to prove to another player who the scum is. If we NL and cj protects someone... he's probably going to get killed anyway. Any ideas?

Preview Edit: dammit, what if wei (or ibarra, but let's worry about wei for a moment) targeted mpolo, but he got modkilled first?

What would happen if the SK submitted a kill on someone who was modkilled that night?

(I have to say though, from the flavour, it does sound like the doctor was successful: two staying up late, plotting against each other.)

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:35 pm UTC

VectorZero wrote:What would happen if the SK submitted a kill on someone who was modkilled that night?

SK kill takes precedence.

by **weiyaoli** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:30 pm UTC

Explicit claim (if needed): I am vanilla town.

So without any counter claims that at least clears cjdrum for sure (possibly me as well, but the mod still has not answered whether the sk can withhold kills though I don't think they did based on what Ibarra and VectorZero have said above). I'm not sure who I trust more out of VZ and Ibarra at this moment, I'll need a re-read I suppose.

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:14 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:Can SKs withhold kills?

Yes.

by **_infina_** » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:19 pm UTC

VectorZero wrote:...

No, pretty sure not.

Anyhoo, just to clarify, scum wins at 1-1 even though the town player could get a lynch by voting first?

All factions have their normal win conditions(see MafiaScum wiki).

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