The Resistance 3 - Reset?

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The Resistance 3 - Reset?

Postby jayhsu » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:06 pm UTC



Game type: Open
Speed: Turbo-ish.
Bastardry: None

New addition: Team Leaders will now choose the mission they wish to propose a team for, with the exception of the final mission, which may only be chosen if the Resistance have successfully completed 2 missions.


Rules (tweaks for The Resistance underlined)
Spoiler:
1. You may only talk about this game in this thread and in an appropriately named spoiler in the Discussion Thread. If you are not playing this game, do not post in this thread without good reason.
2. You may not play to lose. This will be dealt with at the mod's discretion (expect an immediate replacement if you play against your faction).
3. Do not lurk. If you no longer want to or can't play, ask the mod as soon as possible for a replacement. If there are no replacements, you must keep playing until a replacement arrives or the mod decides to modkill you.
4. You may not edit your posts.
5. You may not post your role PM, or quote verbatim from it. You may paraphrase. Otherwise, you may say anything you like during the game.
6. Questions must be posted in

Bold, on a newline.

You may also ask questions to the mod in PM. You must PM all team proposal votes and mission success/failure to the Mod.
7. You may not post game content in this thread during the mission phase.
8. The mod's decisions are final.

How to play The Resistance (Please read carefully)
Spoiler:
1. There are two sides in the resistance – the Resistance (town), working to bring down an evil empire, and the Spies (scum), who work for that evil empire and who have infiltrated the Resistance.

2. In the basic game, the spies know one another but MAY NOT COMMUNICATE PRIVATELY. In a 10-player game, there will be 6 resistance operatives and 4 spies.

3. The game is divided into 5 missions.

4. Each mission is divided into a team proposal step (3 days long max), and a mission run step (~1 day).

5. During the team proposal step, the team leader (randomly chosen first, and then proceeding down the player list) chooses the mission they wish to propose a team for (with the exception of the 5th mission, which may only be chosen if the Resistance has successfully completed two missions). They may then choose anyone in any combination they wish for the mission, including themselves.

6. ALL PLAYERS, including the current mission leader must then vote (either ACCEPT or REJECT) on the proposed team by PMing the mod, who will then reveal all players’ votes simultaneously and publicly - you will know who voted what. A tie counts as a REJECTED vote. Mission leaders default to ACCEPT on their own teams.

7. If a team is REJECTED by the majority (or tie) of players, the next player becomes the team leader and proposes another team for the mission. Failure to submit a vote on a team proposal by the deadline counts as a REJECTED vote.

8. If a team is ACCEPTED by the majority of players, any spies on the team, if any, must decide whether the mission succeeds or fails by PMing the Mod. Resistance players automatically decide the mission passes. Only spies have a choice. Failure to choose by the deadline counts as a MISSION FAIL. You may PM the mod with your decision before the team is approved, but there will always be at least and at most one day for this step.

9. If there is even ONE MISSION FAIL on a mission, the entire mission FAILS (except for the fourth mission, which must have two MISSION FAILURES to FAIL). Otherwise, the mission SUCCEEDS.

Please note the difference between ACCEPTING and REJECTING a proposed team and SUCCEEDING or FAILING/SABOTAGING a current mission.


10. The Resistance win the mission if it succeeds.

11. The Spies win the mission if it fails.

12. After a mission is completed (successfully by the resistance or sabotaged by spies), the next person on the list becomes the team leader.

13. The first team to win three missions, wins.

14. However, the Spies also win if there are ever 5 consecutive team rejections.

To propose a team (make bold):
The current team leader is: [__].
The current mission is: [__].


Proposed Team Member 1:
Proposed Team Member 2:
etc.

The players required per mission for a 10 player game:

Mission 1: 3 players
Mission 2: 4 players
Mission 3: 4 players
Mission 4: 5* players (Requires 2 failures to fail)
Mission 5: 5 players

Role PMs
Spoiler:
Resistance Operative
The Empire must fall. Our missions must succeed.
You are an operative for the Resistance. You must simultaneously discern the four spies and unmask them, while ensuring that any mission you are placed within succeeds. Only with your help will the Resistance succeed.

You win if the Resistance successfully execute 3 missions.
You lose if the Spies sabotage 3 missions or if there are ever 5 consecutive proposed team rejections.

During a mission, you automatically select MISSION SUCCESS.

Spies
The Empire must stand. The Resistance’s missions must fail.
You are a spy for the Empire. You must try to gain the trust of the Resistance… before betraying each and every one of them.
The spies are: [___]. You MAY NOT communicate with these players privately.

You win if the Spies sabotage 3 missions. You also win if there are ever 5 consecutive rejected teams.
You lose if the Resistance successfully completes 3 missions.

During a mission, you must choose whether there is a MISSION SUCCESS or MISSION FAILURE. So long as there is even a single MISSION FAILURE, the entire mission FAILS (except for the fourth mission, which must have two MISSION FAILURES to FAIL). If you do not choose by the deadline (24 hours), you automatically select MISSION FAILURE.

Plot Powers
Spoiler:
These are the plot powers, and how they work:

Once at the beginning of each new mission, the team leader will be given three plot powers to distribute amongst the players, except himself. PM the mod with who should receive which power before proposing a team. Permanent and immediate powers will be used on the appropriate player immediately. Team leaders must distribute plot powers before teams are proposed, but discussion is allowed before they are distributed.

The team leader then proposes the team normally.

To use a plot power, declare the plot power you are using publicly in the thread. Certain plot powers can only be used at specific times, please read carefully.

Some plot powers have duplicates; these are represented by x2 or x3.

Strong Leader x2
1 Time Use

The player who receives this plot power may become the Leader. If this is used on a mission that has not yet had a team proposed, that player also receives the normal three plot powers to distribute. Two of these may not be played consecutively. This power may only be used immediately during or after a mission for use on the next mission (before plot cards have been distributed), or on a mission that has already been rejected once (before a team has been proposed).

Opinion Maker x2
Permanent

The player who receives this plot power must Vote first and publicly for the rest of the game (Vote in-thread).

No Confidence x3
1 Time Use

The player who receives this plot power may null an approved team and force a leadership change. The next player in line becomes the mission leader. This counts as a REJECTED mission. This power may only be used after a team has been approved.

Overheard Conversation x2
Immediate

The player who receives this plot power must choose a player directly before or after them in the player list. They are told the role of the player they chose.

Keeping a Close Eye on You x2
1 Time Use

The player who receives this plot power is told whether a specific player succeeded or sabotaged the mission this power was used on. This power may only be used during a mission on one player - you will be told the result at the end of the mission.

In the Spotlight
1 Time Use

The player who receives this plot power may select another player who must submit their mission disposition publically (PASS/FAIL) within the standard 24 hours. Resistance Operatives MUST select PASS and Spies may choose either PASS or FAIL. Failure to submit a disposition defaults to standard rules at the end of the 24 hours (RO select PASS, Spies select FAIL). This power may only be used after a team has been approved (please let the mod know that you are using it with your mission vote PM - feel free to condition it as you will). Spies may also elect to PM the mod with a PASS disposition to be automatically revealed at the end of the 24-hour period.

Take Responsibility
Immediate

The player who receives this plot power must immediately take a plot power at random from another player (includes Opinion Maker). This can be used on the current round of plot power distributions (though the player it was taken from is told what their stolen power was).

Establish Confidence
Immediate

The player who receives this plot power is told the role of the current mission leader.

Open Up
Immediate

The player who receives this plot power must choose another player. The chosen player is told their role (E.g. if A receives this card and chooses B, B is told the role of A).


Players
1. roband
2. slbub
3. Misnomer
4. Aardvarki
5. Lataro
6. VectorZero
7. webby
8. BoomFrog
9. weiyaoli
10. more_people

Players required per mission:
Mission 1: 3 players
Mission 2: 4 players
Mission 3: 4 players
Mission 4: 5* players
Mission 5: 5 players

Standings
Mission 1: SABOTAGED!
Mission 2:
Mission 3:
Mission 4:
Mission 5:

Missions Completed by the Resistance: 0
Missions Sabotaged by the Spies: 1
Last edited by jayhsu on Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:56 pm UTC, edited 24 times in total.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby jayhsu » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:08 pm UTC

Welcome to the Resistance 3 pre-game. The game will start as soon as either Maff Effect or Portal Mafia finish (assuming All the King's Men continues to delay).

You may confirm in-thread here, and discuss what you like. If you have a role preference, please send that to me as soon as possible as well.

Some important changes from Resistance 2:

-Team Leaders must now choose the Mission they wish to propose (i.e., how many people will be going on the mission) before choosing team members, after distributing plot powers, if any. Mission 5 cannot be proposed unless the Resistance have successfully completed two missions.

-Three plot powers (not two) will be distributed at the beginning of each new mission (i.e. a maximum of 15 plot powers if all 5 missions are proposed).

-There are four spies and six Resistance Operatives.

-Plot powers are worded as they were at the end of Resistance 2 - some were changed from the beginning of that game. Consult them carefully.

Please feel free to ask any questions (PM or in thread).
-Jay
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby roband » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:17 pm UTC

I'm excited about this. Curious to see how it works with more people too.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby roband » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: *increased numbers of players, not the player 'more people'.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby Lataro » Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:35 pm UTC

50 man resistance game go go go go go!
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby _infina_ » Tue Jun 14, 2011 6:49 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:50 man resistance game go go go go go!

can we get that many players?
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby DaBigCheez » Tue Jun 14, 2011 6:53 pm UTC

More players than YOUR GAME HAS ROOM FOR
*quietly re-exits the thread*
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby webby » Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:21 pm UTC

I think I'm going to ask for a random role (I assume not sending in a preference is equivalent to this).

Mod: If we do this, will we actually get a random role, or will it be random after other players's preferences are taken into account (ie whatever is left)?

If the latter, then I will ask for my preference to be randomised (or randomise it myself I guess. :P)
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby Lataro » Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:33 pm UTC

Vote: Random roles for all
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby more_people » Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:42 pm UTC

I believe I already sent my role.

@roband: are you sure you mean 'increased numbers of players', and not me?
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby roband » Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:18 am UTC

Yes
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby slbub » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:39 am UTC

I sent in my request but I would be more than willing to go for frandom roles.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby jayhsu » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:20 pm UTC

If you are vehemently opposed to non-random roles, let me know. I do not want a situation where players are forced into a role they'd rather not be in.

If you are indifferent on the subject, also feel free to let me know, even if you've submitted a preference.
-Jay
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby roband » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:18 pm UTC

I'd rather have random
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby weiyaoli » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:51 pm UTC

I'd vastly prefer random, it means we don't have to get into awful meta arguments that just lead into a lot of bad feelings everywhere. (Would X have chosen to be spy? etc...)
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:23 am UTC

I'm leaning towards random but preferred roles are fine. I think it's worth trying out once to see how it goes, and I think most people will not send in a preference.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:34 am UTC

weiyaoli wrote:I'd vastly prefer random, it means we don't have to get into awful meta arguments that just lead into a lot of bad feelings everywhere. (Would X have chosen to be spy? etc...)



Double quoted for epic truth.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:40 am UTC

pre-game note, M5 seem to heavily favor the resistance more in a 10p game than a 7p, as in a 7p, resistance needed a full team of resistance to win it, here, they can leave one resistance out and still win it. That intended?
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 17, 2011 10:27 am UTC

Spy's still only need to fail three missions to win and there will still be the same number of plot powers used before the 5th mission. Therefore there should be the same number of confirmed(ish) town and confirmedish spys despite more total players. So it makes sense, and I think that this might actually be worse for town still.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - Pre-game

Postby jayhsu » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:08 pm UTC

I am here very briefly; I am sending out roles (100% random) and plot powers now, and First Mission flavor will be posted shortly.
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The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby jayhsu » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:18 pm UTC

June 2072

The Resistance had succeeded in its recent efforts around the world to bring an end to the Empire's Dominion. They had destroyed a key Imperial base outside Victarum, and destroyed the First Tower, a powerful symbol of the Empire's power. As they began to turn their sights toward their next objective, it bore remembering the efforts of their predecessors...


June 2052
The Early Days of The Resistance


An earlier time and a more dangerous time. The height of Imperial power, before the schism. The Resistance was in its infancy, and a show of solidarity was needed. Here, ten gathered to plot the destruction of an Imperial Sanctum - while key Imperial officials met within.

There were whispers, however, that Spies had infiltrated their group, and that others had been bought, or worse, to the other side. Caution was imperative.

Setting an example for Resistance Operatives for years to come, their first mission was to gather the schematics of the Imperial Sanctum.



The first mission has begun.

The current team leader is: VectorZero (webby on deck).
The current mission is: [_]


Current Team Member 1:
Current Team Member 2:
Current Team Member 3:
Add others as necessary.

Plot powers have been provided to the team leader. They must be distributed by the team leader before a team may be proposed, but discussion is permitted to aid the team leader in the distribution.

Consecutive Rejected Teams: 0


3 days to deadline.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby roband » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:20 pm UTC

So Lataro is the last one in charge? Interesting :P

I'm here, with my role, confirming.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby ahippo » Fri Jun 17, 2011 3:59 pm UTC

I'm sorry. I'm NOT in this game. slbub accidentally posted under my name because I was auto logged in on my own computer and he was over at my house.

I figured it would be okay to edit this post because I didn't actually post this. I will include the original message though.

slbub wrote:So now we just wait for Vector Zero to propose a team right?
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Jun 17, 2011 4:11 pm UTC

Which mission would be best to start off with? It might be an idea to start with a 5 man mission to get the most information, although it will almost certainly fail. The mission we are most likely to win are Mission 1 and Mission 4, so it might be an idea to save those until we get one success/we are at two failures and have to pass the next mission.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Aardvarki » Fri Jun 17, 2011 4:34 pm UTC

Weiyaoli, a large mission doesn't necessarily give more information than a small one. It has the potential to give more information, certainly, but worst case scenario, we learn more information from a failed small mission than we do a failed large mission.

That said, I'm not at all opposed to running mission 2/3 first.

The problem we have in this game compared to R2, is that there are more players which means we need more total information to make effective decisions. In R2, there were 7 players and 2/3/3/4/4 mission runners. With an even dispersal, every player goes on 2.28 missions. In R3, it's 10 and 3/4/4/5/5, putting everyone on 2.1 missions. The lower ratio of mission runners to total players means we end up with less information than in R2. To balance that out, however, we do have more plot powers at our disposal. We will need to make good use of those in order to get over the information hurdle.

Also... Lataro is in this game! Vote: Lataro

Oh, wait... That's not how this works, is it? Unvote
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby _infina_ » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:11 pm UTC

I have my role. The no lynching aspect of this I am rather intrigued by. So, VZ has a team to propose, and a mission to choose. I think leaving mission four as a last resort will work best, giving us time to ferret out some spies. In that line of thinking, I believe the order should be 5, [3|2], [2|3], 1, 4. Once we have gotten some we believe most strongly to be town, we can move into smaller missions with greater chances of success.

So, VectorZero, I suggest you go with mission 5, and all of the players that have an even number on the player list.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Aardvarki » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:16 pm UTC

The Rules wrote:5. During the team proposal step, the team leader (randomly chosen first, and then proceeding down the player list) chooses the mission they wish to propose a team for (with the exception of the 5th mission, which may only be chosen if the Resistance has successfully completed two missions). They may then choose anyone in any combination they wish for the mission, including themselves.


_infina_, VZ can't choose #5.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:26 pm UTC

Yes, I guess that's right, I also missed that particular rule. In that case, I think I am against going with Mission 1 first and would prefer 2/3. I think maybe the plot powers could change this though, which ones did you get VZ?
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby _infina_ » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:28 pm UTC

whoops...I missed that one. So reordered prefered mission order: [3|2], [2|3], 1, 4, 5. for a team then, just leave out one of the even numbered players randomly.
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Spoiler:
keozen wrote:It took us exactly 3 pages to turn a discussion of a loved children's book series into smut...
TheGrammarBolshevik wrote:Only if your friends know what rhino dong smells like.

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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:14 pm UTC

Confirmate.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Lataro » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:17 pm UTC

I'd personally suggest M4, it is the most likely to pass, gives the resistance the most info if it fails, and I believe an early 1-0 lead would be a strong position to head into.

Last game, M4 gave no info at all due to a previous double fail, even so though, it would have been unlikely to have failed. Ultimately, I think our best chances are to do M4, and get another round of plot powers, before going into a mission were we require no spies among the mission to pass.

Thoughts?
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby roband » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:31 pm UTC

Yeah, I think we need to look at what powers we have, work out if they're going to be useful and which mission they're best applied to, and go from there
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby webby » Sat Jun 18, 2011 5:13 am UTC

I'm not sure about choosing mission 4 first. I think we run the risk of wasting our best mission given there's a greater than 50-50 chance of it failing if we just pick a team randomly.

But I guess we wait for the plot powers before deciding?
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Lataro » Sat Jun 18, 2011 5:43 am UTC

webby wrote:I'm not sure about choosing mission 4 first. I think we run the risk of wasting our best mission given there's a greater than 50-50 chance of it failing if we just pick a team randomly.

But I guess we wait for the plot powers before deciding?


/quick google calc because he's bored.

There are 210 combinations for M4. They are as follows...

Spoiler:
Combinations without repetition (n=10, r=4)
{r1,r2,r3,r4} {r1,r2,r3,r5} {r1,r2,r3,r6} {r1,r2,r3,s1} {r1,r2,r3,s2} {r1,r2,r3,s3} {r1,r2,r3,s4} {r1,r2,r4,r5} {r1,r2,r4,r6} {r1,r2,r4,s1} {r1,r2,r4,s2} {r1,r2,r4,s3} {r1,r2,r4,s4} {r1,r2,r5,r6} {r1,r2,r5,s1} {r1,r2,r5,s2} {r1,r2,r5,s3} {r1,r2,r5,s4} {r1,r2,r6,s1} {r1,r2,r6,s2} {r1,r2,r6,s3} {r1,r2,r6,s4} {r1,r2,s1,s2} {r1,r2,s1,s3} {r1,r2,s1,s4} {r1,r2,s2,s3} {r1,r2,s2,s4} {r1,r2,s3,s4} {r1,r3,r4,r5} {r1,r3,r4,r6} {r1,r3,r4,s1} {r1,r3,r4,s2} {r1,r3,r4,s3} {r1,r3,r4,s4} {r1,r3,r5,r6} {r1,r3,r5,s1} {r1,r3,r5,s2} {r1,r3,r5,s3} {r1,r3,r5,s4} {r1,r3,r6,s1} {r1,r3,r6,s2} {r1,r3,r6,s3} {r1,r3,r6,s4} {r1,r3,s1,s2} {r1,r3,s1,s3} {r1,r3,s1,s4} {r1,r3,s2,s3} {r1,r3,s2,s4} {r1,r3,s3,s4} {r1,r4,r5,r6} {r1,r4,r5,s1} {r1,r4,r5,s2} {r1,r4,r5,s3} {r1,r4,r5,s4} {r1,r4,r6,s1} {r1,r4,r6,s2} {r1,r4,r6,s3} {r1,r4,r6,s4} {r1,r4,s1,s2} {r1,r4,s1,s3} {r1,r4,s1,s4} {r1,r4,s2,s3} {r1,r4,s2,s4} {r1,r4,s3,s4} {r1,r5,r6,s1} {r1,r5,r6,s2} {r1,r5,r6,s3} {r1,r5,r6,s4} {r1,r5,s1,s2} {r1,r5,s1,s3} {r1,r5,s1,s4} {r1,r5,s2,s3} {r1,r5,s2,s4} {r1,r5,s3,s4} {r1,r6,s1,s2} {r1,r6,s1,s3} {r1,r6,s1,s4} {r1,r6,s2,s3} {r1,r6,s2,s4} {r1,r6,s3,s4} {r1,s1,s2,s3} {r1,s1,s2,s4} {r1,s1,s3,s4} {r1,s2,s3,s4} {r2,r3,r4,r5} {r2,r3,r4,r6} {r2,r3,r4,s1} {r2,r3,r4,s2} {r2,r3,r4,s3} {r2,r3,r4,s4} {r2,r3,r5,r6} {r2,r3,r5,s1} {r2,r3,r5,s2} {r2,r3,r5,s3} {r2,r3,r5,s4} {r2,r3,r6,s1} {r2,r3,r6,s2} {r2,r3,r6,s3} {r2,r3,r6,s4} {r2,r3,s1,s2} {r2,r3,s1,s3} {r2,r3,s1,s4} {r2,r3,s2,s3} {r2,r3,s2,s4} {r2,r3,s3,s4} {r2,r4,r5,r6} {r2,r4,r5,s1} {r2,r4,r5,s2} {r2,r4,r5,s3} {r2,r4,r5,s4} {r2,r4,r6,s1} {r2,r4,r6,s2} {r2,r4,r6,s3} {r2,r4,r6,s4} {r2,r4,s1,s2} {r2,r4,s1,s3} {r2,r4,s1,s4} {r2,r4,s2,s3} {r2,r4,s2,s4} {r2,r4,s3,s4} {r2,r5,r6,s1} {r2,r5,r6,s2} {r2,r5,r6,s3} {r2,r5,r6,s4} {r2,r5,s1,s2} {r2,r5,s1,s3} {r2,r5,s1,s4} {r2,r5,s2,s3} {r2,r5,s2,s4} {r2,r5,s3,s4} {r2,r6,s1,s2} {r2,r6,s1,s3} {r2,r6,s1,s4} {r2,r6,s2,s3} {r2,r6,s2,s4} {r2,r6,s3,s4} {r2,s1,s2,s3} {r2,s1,s2,s4} {r2,s1,s3,s4} {r2,s2,s3,s4} {r3,r4,r5,r6} {r3,r4,r5,s1} {r3,r4,r5,s2} {r3,r4,r5,s3} {r3,r4,r5,s4} {r3,r4,r6,s1} {r3,r4,r6,s2} {r3,r4,r6,s3} {r3,r4,r6,s4} {r3,r4,s1,s2} {r3,r4,s1,s3} {r3,r4,s1,s4} {r3,r4,s2,s3} {r3,r4,s2,s4} {r3,r4,s3,s4} {r3,r5,r6,s1} {r3,r5,r6,s2} {r3,r5,r6,s3} {r3,r5,r6,s4} {r3,r5,s1,s2} {r3,r5,s1,s3} {r3,r5,s1,s4} {r3,r5,s2,s3} {r3,r5,s2,s4} {r3,r5,s3,s4} {r3,r6,s1,s2} {r3,r6,s1,s3} {r3,r6,s1,s4} {r3,r6,s2,s3} {r3,r6,s2,s4} {r3,r6,s3,s4} {r3,s1,s2,s3} {r3,s1,s2,s4} {r3,s1,s3,s4} {r3,s2,s3,s4} {r4,r5,r6,s1} {r4,r5,r6,s2} {r4,r5,r6,s3} {r4,r5,r6,s4} {r4,r5,s1,s2} {r4,r5,s1,s3} {r4,r5,s1,s4} {r4,r5,s2,s3} {r4,r5,s2,s4} {r4,r5,s3,s4} {r4,r6,s1,s2} {r4,r6,s1,s3} {r4,r6,s1,s4} {r4,r6,s2,s3} {r4,r6,s2,s4} {r4,r6,s3,s4} {r4,s1,s2,s3} {r4,s1,s2,s4} {r4,s1,s3,s4} {r4,s2,s3,s4} {r5,r6,s1,s2} {r5,r6,s1,s3} {r5,r6,s1,s4} {r5,r6,s2,s3} {r5,r6,s2,s4} {r5,r6,s3,s4} {r5,s1,s2,s3} {r5,s1,s2,s4} {r5,s1,s3,s4} {r5,s2,s3,s4} {r6,s1,s2,s3} {r6,s1,s2,s4} {r6,s1,s3,s4} {r6,s2,s3,s4} {s1,s2,s3,s4}


Huh, if I count correctly, spies using random team combos can win 116/210 combinations assuming at least two spies if present both fail the mission.

I don't care to go though the hassle of counting that shit out again on another combo, but using the same method, I doubt any other mission has better odds of success, since only a single spy need be on that mission to fail it. Additionally, my point still stands that if it does fail, we know for sure there are at least two spies among four people, and by doing this mission early, we can focus plot powers to that end to narrow that field down.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Lataro
 
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby webby » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:00 am UTC

Lataro wrote:
webby wrote:I'm not sure about choosing mission 4 first. I think we run the risk of wasting our best mission given there's a greater than 50-50 chance of it failing if we just pick a team randomly.

But I guess we wait for the plot powers before deciding?


/quick google calc because he's bored.

There are 210 combinations for M4. They are as follows...

Spoiler:
Combinations without repetition (n=10, r=4)
{r1,r2,r3,r4} {r1,r2,r3,r5} {r1,r2,r3,r6} {r1,r2,r3,s1} {r1,r2,r3,s2} {r1,r2,r3,s3} {r1,r2,r3,s4} {r1,r2,r4,r5} {r1,r2,r4,r6} {r1,r2,r4,s1} {r1,r2,r4,s2} {r1,r2,r4,s3} {r1,r2,r4,s4} {r1,r2,r5,r6} {r1,r2,r5,s1} {r1,r2,r5,s2} {r1,r2,r5,s3} {r1,r2,r5,s4} {r1,r2,r6,s1} {r1,r2,r6,s2} {r1,r2,r6,s3} {r1,r2,r6,s4} {r1,r2,s1,s2} {r1,r2,s1,s3} {r1,r2,s1,s4} {r1,r2,s2,s3} {r1,r2,s2,s4} {r1,r2,s3,s4} {r1,r3,r4,r5} {r1,r3,r4,r6} {r1,r3,r4,s1} {r1,r3,r4,s2} {r1,r3,r4,s3} {r1,r3,r4,s4} {r1,r3,r5,r6} {r1,r3,r5,s1} {r1,r3,r5,s2} {r1,r3,r5,s3} {r1,r3,r5,s4} {r1,r3,r6,s1} {r1,r3,r6,s2} {r1,r3,r6,s3} {r1,r3,r6,s4} {r1,r3,s1,s2} {r1,r3,s1,s3} {r1,r3,s1,s4} {r1,r3,s2,s3} {r1,r3,s2,s4} {r1,r3,s3,s4} {r1,r4,r5,r6} {r1,r4,r5,s1} {r1,r4,r5,s2} {r1,r4,r5,s3} {r1,r4,r5,s4} {r1,r4,r6,s1} {r1,r4,r6,s2} {r1,r4,r6,s3} {r1,r4,r6,s4} {r1,r4,s1,s2} {r1,r4,s1,s3} {r1,r4,s1,s4} {r1,r4,s2,s3} {r1,r4,s2,s4} {r1,r4,s3,s4} {r1,r5,r6,s1} {r1,r5,r6,s2} {r1,r5,r6,s3} {r1,r5,r6,s4} {r1,r5,s1,s2} {r1,r5,s1,s3} {r1,r5,s1,s4} {r1,r5,s2,s3} {r1,r5,s2,s4} {r1,r5,s3,s4} {r1,r6,s1,s2} {r1,r6,s1,s3} {r1,r6,s1,s4} {r1,r6,s2,s3} {r1,r6,s2,s4} {r1,r6,s3,s4} {r1,s1,s2,s3} {r1,s1,s2,s4} {r1,s1,s3,s4} {r1,s2,s3,s4} {r2,r3,r4,r5} {r2,r3,r4,r6} {r2,r3,r4,s1} {r2,r3,r4,s2} {r2,r3,r4,s3} {r2,r3,r4,s4} {r2,r3,r5,r6} {r2,r3,r5,s1} {r2,r3,r5,s2} {r2,r3,r5,s3} {r2,r3,r5,s4} {r2,r3,r6,s1} {r2,r3,r6,s2} {r2,r3,r6,s3} {r2,r3,r6,s4} {r2,r3,s1,s2} {r2,r3,s1,s3} {r2,r3,s1,s4} {r2,r3,s2,s3} {r2,r3,s2,s4} {r2,r3,s3,s4} {r2,r4,r5,r6} {r2,r4,r5,s1} {r2,r4,r5,s2} {r2,r4,r5,s3} {r2,r4,r5,s4} {r2,r4,r6,s1} {r2,r4,r6,s2} {r2,r4,r6,s3} {r2,r4,r6,s4} {r2,r4,s1,s2} {r2,r4,s1,s3} {r2,r4,s1,s4} {r2,r4,s2,s3} {r2,r4,s2,s4} {r2,r4,s3,s4} {r2,r5,r6,s1} {r2,r5,r6,s2} {r2,r5,r6,s3} {r2,r5,r6,s4} {r2,r5,s1,s2} {r2,r5,s1,s3} {r2,r5,s1,s4} {r2,r5,s2,s3} {r2,r5,s2,s4} {r2,r5,s3,s4} {r2,r6,s1,s2} {r2,r6,s1,s3} {r2,r6,s1,s4} {r2,r6,s2,s3} {r2,r6,s2,s4} {r2,r6,s3,s4} {r2,s1,s2,s3} {r2,s1,s2,s4} {r2,s1,s3,s4} {r2,s2,s3,s4} {r3,r4,r5,r6} {r3,r4,r5,s1} {r3,r4,r5,s2} {r3,r4,r5,s3} {r3,r4,r5,s4} {r3,r4,r6,s1} {r3,r4,r6,s2} {r3,r4,r6,s3} {r3,r4,r6,s4} {r3,r4,s1,s2} {r3,r4,s1,s3} {r3,r4,s1,s4} {r3,r4,s2,s3} {r3,r4,s2,s4} {r3,r4,s3,s4} {r3,r5,r6,s1} {r3,r5,r6,s2} {r3,r5,r6,s3} {r3,r5,r6,s4} {r3,r5,s1,s2} {r3,r5,s1,s3} {r3,r5,s1,s4} {r3,r5,s2,s3} {r3,r5,s2,s4} {r3,r5,s3,s4} {r3,r6,s1,s2} {r3,r6,s1,s3} {r3,r6,s1,s4} {r3,r6,s2,s3} {r3,r6,s2,s4} {r3,r6,s3,s4} {r3,s1,s2,s3} {r3,s1,s2,s4} {r3,s1,s3,s4} {r3,s2,s3,s4} {r4,r5,r6,s1} {r4,r5,r6,s2} {r4,r5,r6,s3} {r4,r5,r6,s4} {r4,r5,s1,s2} {r4,r5,s1,s3} {r4,r5,s1,s4} {r4,r5,s2,s3} {r4,r5,s2,s4} {r4,r5,s3,s4} {r4,r6,s1,s2} {r4,r6,s1,s3} {r4,r6,s1,s4} {r4,r6,s2,s3} {r4,r6,s2,s4} {r4,r6,s3,s4} {r4,s1,s2,s3} {r4,s1,s2,s4} {r4,s1,s3,s4} {r4,s2,s3,s4} {r5,r6,s1,s2} {r5,r6,s1,s3} {r5,r6,s1,s4} {r5,r6,s2,s3} {r5,r6,s2,s4} {r5,r6,s3,s4} {r5,s1,s2,s3} {r5,s1,s2,s4} {r5,s1,s3,s4} {r5,s2,s3,s4} {r6,s1,s2,s3} {r6,s1,s2,s4} {r6,s1,s3,s4} {r6,s2,s3,s4} {s1,s2,s3,s4}


Huh, if I count correctly, spies using random team combos can win 116/210 combinations assuming at least two spies if present both fail the mission.

I don't care to go though the hassle of counting that shit out again on another combo, but using the same method, I doubt any other mission has better odds of success, since only a single spy need be on that mission to fail it. Additionally, my point still stands that if it does fail, we know for sure there are at least two spies among four people, and by doing this mission early, we can focus plot powers to that end to narrow that field down.


I hate to break it to you after you've done so much work, but there are five people on mission 4, not four, which is why I didn't need to do a proper calculation to know that it was worse than 50-50. I'd be pretty confident (although without having done the calculation) that it would be better odds than mission 1.

I don't think knowing there are 2 spies among 5 people is a much better position than we started in. The alternative seems to be giving up the first mission by choosing one of the 4 player ones and hoping we get a whole bunch of useful plot powers for the second mission. But again, we'll wait to see what powers we get. It's probable we're going to have to at least partly use traditional mafia scumhunting methods as well as logic to find spies.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Lataro » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:16 am UTC

expletive
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby Lataro » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:45 am UTC

so... 252 combos...

Spoiler:
Combinations without repetition (n=10, r=5)
{1,2,3,4,5} {1,2,3,4,6} {1,2,3,4,SPY 1} {1,2,3,4,SPY 2} {1,2,3,4,SPY 3} {1,2,3,4,SPY 4} {1,2,3,5,6} {1,2,3,5,SPY 1} {1,2,3,5,SPY 2} {1,2,3,5,SPY 3} {1,2,3,5,SPY 4} {1,2,3,6,SPY 1} {1,2,3,6,SPY 2} {1,2,3,6,SPY 3} {1,2,3,6,SPY 4} {1,2,3,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,2,3,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,2,3,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,2,3,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,2,3,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,2,3,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,2,4,5,6} {1,2,4,5,SPY 1} {1,2,4,5,SPY 2} {1,2,4,5,SPY 3} {1,2,4,5,SPY 4} {1,2,4,6,SPY 1} {1,2,4,6,SPY 2} {1,2,4,6,SPY 3} {1,2,4,6,SPY 4} {1,2,4,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,2,4,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,2,4,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,2,4,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,2,4,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,2,4,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,2,5,6,SPY 1} {1,2,5,6,SPY 2} {1,2,5,6,SPY 3} {1,2,5,6,SPY 4} {1,2,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,2,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,2,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,2,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,2,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,2,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,2,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,2,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,2,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,2,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,2,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,2,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,2,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,2,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,2,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,2,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,3,4,5,6} {1,3,4,5,SPY 1} {1,3,4,5,SPY 2} {1,3,4,5,SPY 3} {1,3,4,5,SPY 4} {1,3,4,6,SPY 1} {1,3,4,6,SPY 2} {1,3,4,6,SPY 3} {1,3,4,6,SPY 4} {1,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,3,4,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,3,4,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,3,4,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,3,5,6,SPY 1} {1,3,5,6,SPY 2} {1,3,5,6,SPY 3} {1,3,5,6,SPY 4} {1,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,3,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,3,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,3,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,3,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,3,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,3,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,3,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,3,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,3,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,3,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,4,5,6,SPY 1} {1,4,5,6,SPY 2} {1,4,5,6,SPY 3} {1,4,5,6,SPY 4} {1,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,4,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,4,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,4,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,4,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {1,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {1,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {1,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,5,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,5,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,5,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {1,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {1,6,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,6,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {1,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,3,4,5,6} {2,3,4,5,SPY 1} {2,3,4,5,SPY 2} {2,3,4,5,SPY 3} {2,3,4,5,SPY 4} {2,3,4,6,SPY 1} {2,3,4,6,SPY 2} {2,3,4,6,SPY 3} {2,3,4,6,SPY 4} {2,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,3,4,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,3,4,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,3,4,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,3,4,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,3,5,6,SPY 1} {2,3,5,6,SPY 2} {2,3,5,6,SPY 3} {2,3,5,6,SPY 4} {2,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,3,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,3,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,3,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,3,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,3,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,3,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,3,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,3,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,3,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,3,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,3,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,3,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,4,5,6,SPY 1} {2,4,5,6,SPY 2} {2,4,5,6,SPY 3} {2,4,5,6,SPY 4} {2,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,4,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,4,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,4,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,4,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {2,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {2,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {2,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,5,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,5,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,5,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {2,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {2,6,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,6,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {2,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,4,5,6,SPY 1} {3,4,5,6,SPY 2} {3,4,5,6,SPY 3} {3,4,5,6,SPY 4} {3,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 2} {3,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 3} {3,4,5,SPY 1,SPY 4} {3,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,4,5,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,4,5,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {3,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {3,4,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {3,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,4,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,4,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,4,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,4,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {3,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {3,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {3,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,5,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,5,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,5,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {3,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {3,6,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,6,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {3,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2} {4,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 3} {4,5,6,SPY 1,SPY 4} {4,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 3} {4,5,6,SPY 2,SPY 4} {4,5,6,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {4,5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {4,5,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,5,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {4,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {4,6,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,6,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {4,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3} {5,6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 4} {5,6,SPY 1,SPY 3,SPY 4} {5,6,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {5,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4} {6,SPY 1,SPY 2,SPY 3,SPY 4}


Hell with this, I've spent the last 30 minutes trying to find an online calc resource that'll allow me to enter more parameters so that it'll do all the work itself, and I've had no luck, I'm not going blind reading though all that and manually highlighting and counting it again. I stand by the rest of my argument though that it's likely the best choice among others for us to make.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Lataro
 
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby webby » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:11 am UTC

I'll have a go at it (For the case you checked with 4, my method gets
(6C4 + 6C3*4C1)/210 = 95/210, so 115/210 chance of 2 or more scum, close to what you got.)

10C5 = 252 total combinations.
Ways of choosing 0 scum = 6C5
Ways of choosing 1 scum = 6C2*4C1

So total chance of mission succeeding with random choices:
(6C5+6C4*4C1)/252 = 66/252 = 26%

For the mission with 3, it's 6C3/10C3 = 20/120 = 1/6 = 17%.
For the missions with 4, it's 6C4/10C4 = 15/210 = 7%

I think chances are we're going to lose the first mission. I'm not so sure it's much of a benefit to know that there are at least two scum in a group of 5 when right now we could pick any group of 5 and have a 3/4 chance there's at least two scum in that group. So I'm not sure we should waste our double fail mission until we have more information.
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:11 pm UTC

I think if it fails, knowing two people out of 5 are scum (possibly more) is only slightly better than 1/4 (possibility of double fails there too so possibly even worse than that) and we would "waste" the double fail mission which should be easy to pass. A lot depends on what powers VZ got though, which he still hasn't posted yet.
And you thought I was crazy...
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Re: The Resistance 3 - (0-0) - First Mission Setup

Postby VectorZero » Sat Jun 18, 2011 1:13 pm UTC

Sorry, just got back from work.

I got overheard conversation, keeping a close eye on you, in the spotlight.

No time to do analysis now re which mission to attempt, sorry.
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
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