[T] Marvel vs Capcomafia - Game Over - Weiyaoli Wins w/ 90

[VectorZero]

Unvote

Vote: Ibarra

I think the mod's answers have pretty much sewn this up. I dont think there's any reason to wait until d3 to work this out: the risk of a scum speed lynch is far greater than any potential benefit - which would rely on Ibarra not killing cjdrum anyway.

[_infina_]

Votes:
Ibarra - 1 (VectorZero)
VectorZero - 1 (Ibarra)
cjdrum - 1 (cjdrum)
weiyaoli - 1 (weiyaoli)

[cjdrum]

This means that I can vote without fear of quickhammer, hey.

I think that Ibarra hasn't provided much of... anything, really.
VectorZero has kinda been working out numbers and whatever, but Ibarra hasn't even really pleaded his case*.

* If you have, please point me to it. If not, please make.

So, I guess...
vote: Ibarra

This is a 50/50 shot, and it either ends now or comes down to "GUYS I'M TOWN SO THE OTHER IS SCUM".
I just hope I'm making the right choice...

[weiyaoli]

Well, I guess my vote is needed for majority. I trust VZ more than Ibarra so:

Vote: Ibarra

[Ibarra]

I'm the SK, and that was the hammer. Some comments though:

FWIW, How can you "plead" your "case" if there's nothing explicitly wrong with what you did?
Remember, both VZ and I pushed for lynching, and we both suspected basically the same people.
The only difference was that VZ provided some numbers - which both scum and town can do.
cjdrum: How did VZ "plead" his case? What he did was basically throw in a NL and some more numbers, something that scum may do anyway.

In a situation like that where there is absolutely no information, the only way you can distinguish is perhaps gut.
Although town won because of gut and a lucky protect, I still see some logic failures that town shouldn't have committed.

So Round 2 being randomized and all, if we still have five players, then the correct action for town is no-lynch, lynch.
If there are 6 players (BoomFrog, maybe?), then we may need to revise it.

[_infina_]

So, I have been a little busy today. In less than a week I have to take my step-father in for surgery, and until then I have to make sure he doesn't do anything he isn't supposed to do. This means you have a choice, continue to round two, with me not being as available tow respond, and minimal (yes, I can do less) flavor. I'm going to drop the auto-self-votes for round two, if it happens, and if it gets to a round three, leave it up to you which you prefer.

[weiyaoli]

I'm not seeing a choice there? But I would be fine with continuing onto round 2 and dropping the self votes.

[_infina_]

I'm not seeing a choice there? But I would be fine with continuing onto round 2 and dropping the self votes.

round 2 will start in about 13.25 hours. the other choice was to end the game.

[mpolo]

Looking forward to the PM. (I.e. I am on board this time.)

[_infina_]

The island starts to swirl around you. Bodies rise from the ground and return to life. In your ears rings the echo of a disembodied voice.

"Play Again?"

Something feels different. Things that were the same now are different. What could this mean?

Round 2, Start!
5 players, 3 to lynch.
Deadline in 48 hours.

[weiyaoli]

Looks like BoomFrog didn't join in for whatever reason?

There's one glaring error I noticed in my logic yesterday (not counting the forgetting that having a vote on yourself at 2-1 is a loss for town) was that an acceptable strategy for sk was not to counterclaim a copter like what happened in the end-game there and have it between two vanilla townies. I think I kind of completely forgot to consider this aspect, which makes it (imo) a better strategy not to counterclaim (doctor/cop with town result) and leave more confusion around (especially if there was a doctor that failed to protect).

So since we don't start with votes on ourselves, I still think NL-NL is probably my preferred tactic, although if we see anything significant of a slip I wouldn't mind going Lynch-Lynch(/NL if we get a successful protect) either.

[mpolo]

I, The Mighty Thor™ am actually present this time. If we should choose a lynch target, I wilt smite him with the mighty Mjollnir™. O woe, that Loki™ is not present, for him I would truly smite.

Hast thou heard? I have made a mighty Summer Movie™ and there are lots of Enticing Movie Tie-Ins™ that you canst buy! The only downside is the instistence of our Greedy Lawyers™ that everything be properly marked with Trademark Symbols™.

Weiyaoli™, couldst thou go through the reasoning behind this NoLynch™ strategy?

[Ibarra]

mpolo, could you drop your posting like that
It took me longer than usual to actually read and understand what you just said.
It's not like we have post restrictions >.>

Anyway, we have the same course of action as proposed on Day 1 last round, NL-NL-Lynch or Lynch-Lynch as we have no-self votes now.
I still opt for the Lynch-Lynch option.

[VectorZero]

Yes, I am glad I took self-votes into account last time I did analysis.
<.<
>.>

Anywhoo...

I still like lynch lynch, but could go either way if people think the human factor gives enough benefit to NL-NL-lynch.

[mpolo]

Sorry, I was just being silly for the first post...

So, we have four town and one bad guy.

If we choose to lynch, then
1/5 => we win
4/5 => next day is 2/1 (LyLo)

If we choose no-lynch, then
5/5 => next day is 3/1 (MyLo), practically calling for a second no lynch and a decision on Day 3.

I think that the information from the lynch is too important to throw away. Especially since taking the no lynch route (or at least choosing it early) will leave us with little discussion on the first two days and the third day is then almost blind.

[mpolo]

I have left off the possible power roles, of course. If we have a cop, the no-lynch strategy greatly increases his chance of hitting the SK. If we have a doctor, we might get an extra day out. And the SK can withhold to make us think we have a doctor when we in fact have a cop.

I'm not sure if this changes my opinion or not. We should definitely scum hunt now, and not just decide to no lynch as a knee-jerk reaction.

[_infina_]

deadline extended to Monday. (If I have to modkill, I will have an awesome name for it.)

[mpolo]

So, scumhunting. Four of five of us have posted thus far. It would be nice to hear from cjdrum so that we could get consensus on whether we are going to lynch or not. I am willing to go with a no-lynch strategy, but only if it hasn't been proceeded by a total lack-of-content day like this one has been.

Weiyaoli was musing about optimal SK strategy, which seems to be an unusual pastime for town. Which is not enough for a lynch or even an FoS, but at least raises my eyebrows a bit.

[cjdrum]

Hi!

I reckon that now that the self-votes are gone, a NL-NL-YL is a really good idea.

If weiy reckons that it'd be a bad idea for SK to counterclaim a PR, then the PR could claim results on D3 to decide a lynch for when we are at 2-1.

So if we have a Cop this time, then we have two results, hopefully out of the three remaining players, to work with.
If we have a Doctor again, then we have the possibility of results there, too. However, chance of being killed after D3 are probably a bit too high for my liking, so I reckon that a Doc claim should come D3 no matter what.

Then I think we'll have optimal situation for the LyLo at the end.


Any problems with this?

[weiyaoli]

Weiyaoli was musing about optimal SK strategy, which seems to be an unusual pastime for town. Which is not enough for a lynch or even an FoS, but at least raises my eyebrows a bit.

That was just pointing out that my analysis Round 1 was flawed in that it assumed that the SK would always counterclaim the power role (which looking at what we had yesterday for example was not the case).

If weiy reckons that it'd be a bad idea for SK to counterclaim a PR, then the PR could claim results on D3 to decide a lynch for when we are at 2-1.

This is an awful idea and also wasn't my point. Fos: cjdrum You are assuming that the NK would never hit the power role during N1/2 for one. Also, the cop should always claim if they copped scum. (That would force the sk to counterclaim the power role).

Thinking over this again, this set-up will (almost) always be down between two people. I think in that regard information from cop results wise would be pretty useless when it came down to between the two people. Therefore, I think I support Lynch-Lynch, as I don't think we would gain much useful information from the power role and lynch information would be more useful in this case.

[cjdrum]

If weiy reckons that it'd be a bad idea for SK to counterclaim a PR, then the PR could claim results on D3 to decide a lynch for when we are at 2-1.

This is an awful idea and also wasn't my point. Fos: cjdrum You are assuming that the NK would never hit the power role during N1/2 for one.

Um... No I'm not. There's always the possibility of that happening, in which case we work from where we are - probably with a lynch, though I haven't thought through that yet.

Also, the cop should always claim if they copped scum. (That would force the sk to counterclaim the power role).

Yes and yes. That's a given; I had assumed that it didn't need to be explicitly stated.


And for that last bit - I think I see what you're saying, but I don't see how you can say that after telling me how important the PR is.
Besides, who here can do an epic VCA... With only one scum here out of five players? "Third on the wagon" hardly works anywhere else, let alone in this game

[Ibarra]

Only around less than a day remaining and we still have no real bandwagon target. (I think majority of town wants a Lynch-Lynch strategy. me, VZ and mpolo)
Frankly, I don't see anything real major so far. We need to spark up some discussion.

[VectorZero]

Hi!

I reckon that now that the self-votes are gone, a NL-NL-YL is a really good idea.

If weiy reckons that it'd be a bad idea for SK to counterclaim a PR, then the PR could claim results on D3 to decide a lynch for when we are at 2-1.

So if we have a Cop this time, then we have two results, hopefully out of the three remaining players, to work with.
If we have a Doctor again, then we have the possibility of results there, too. However, chance of being killed after D3 are probably a bit too high for my liking, so I reckon that a Doc claim should come D3 no matter what.

Then I think we'll have optimal situation for the LyLo at the end.


Any problems with this?

Yeah; it's full of wine and I think its encouraging a cop not to claim a townie result (which may or may not be the right thing to do, but should be discussed in the context of the specific game). The only possibility of the game going beyond 3 days is using a NL-NL strategy and a miraculous doctor; you're proposing strategy for an unlikely event. I think you're trying to look town and failing hard.

Vote: cjdrum

[cjdrum]

Um. I'm proposing strategy, leaving room for an unlikely event.

And "trying to look town and failing hard"? Why is that your conclusion, rather than I am Town, looking town?

Elaboration! It is always key!

[VectorZero]

...

Did you read the preceding lines, or just skip to the ending? (Don't tell anyone, but the butler did it.)

[cjdrum]

Yes, I did read the preceding lines.

I then addressed the part that attacked me directly.
Addressing anything else would've been a) Probably similar to what I had already said, and b) Wine. Without your reasoning on anything, it's a bit hard for me to agree with you.

It's like... I say something's blue, you simply say it's not blue and expect me to say what colour it is. It just doesn't work like that.

So what do you say should happen with the PR, then?

[VectorZero]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Proposing strategy leaving room for an unlikely event? You say the PR should claim on D3. No shit, sherlock. It'll be the last day, except for a NL-NL-doctorprotectedkill sequence; hells yeah they should claim. By suggesting the PR (when did we stop calling them coptors?) claim D3, you imply they should not claim earlier (thus putting them at increased risk of NK). This is anti-town since the decision to claim or not should be discussed each day depending on the events so far; therefore, you are scummy for saying anti-town and/or misleading things.

I'm not adding anything here that I haven't already said.

I'm also assuming you're not just completely ignoring my earlier posts talking about the higher chance of a random scum lynch with a lynch-lynch strategy over NL-NL-lynch, which is one element of my preference for that method in the first place.

[weiyaoli]

I said the problem I had with it; not claiming as a rule until D3 (unless the obvious if you find scum cop) would allow for the PR to get killed without revealing results of their actions. (And this isn't exactly an unlikely event, 1/4 + (3/4*1/3) for no successful doctor protect which is 50%, hardly insignificant).

And for that last bit - I think I see what you're saying, but I don't see how you can say that after telling me how important the PR is.

I think I can. I said that cop results are useless when it comes down to between two people. However, that does not mean they are not useful full stop; they can still be useful if they cop town (and then claim) without a counterclaim which confirms two town for example or getting it down to between two people in the first place. Therefore, although I don't think stretching the length out benefits us, the PR is still important in that without them we could be potentially left at LYLO (or MYLO) with zero confirmed town.

[mpolo]

I'm not sure if we're arguing semantics or if VectorZero really found something on cjdrum. Being open for a case that might occur (additional day) is reasonable, in that with so few participants, the doctor actually has a decent chance of choosing correctly.* On the other hand, the way that case was presented would make it perfectly reasonable to think that he wanted his endgame strategy to be the strategy at any time.

On the one hand, this is our most solid lead to date, on the other hand, I am loathe to vote with it this uncertain. More later.




* I just modded a real-life game with like 25 participants, and the anti-werewolf-doctor (we had both mafia and werewolves) managed to correctly protect twice in four nights (because of lack of time, I gave town 3 lynches on day 5 and they got rid of the remaining two werewolves). That is bordering on miraculous.

[Ibarra]

In my opinion, you guys are making a mountain over a molehill with what cjdrum said.
When I first read it, I disagreed too, but never thought it was a suspicious thing because he was just proposing it.
His last statement, implies he wanted feedback over his suggestion.

[VectorZero]

Being open for a case that might occur (additional day) is reasonable

I just don't see the point in discussing a plan on D1 of what a surviving power role should do on D3 in the case we might get a D4. Of all the situations to arise...

And it's completely out of the blue. He hasn't analysed any other outcomes. More importantly, he hasn't remotely discussed what a power role should do D2, in any context. This is why I think his conversation is scummy: by discussing when a power role should claim, there's at least an implication they shouldn't claim in the situations he hasn't discussed.

It's just a ludicrous topic to focus on.

When I first read it, I disagreed too, but never thought it was a suspicious thing because he was just proposing it.

I really don't understand. If I say "Hey guys, I think we should lynch at LYLO, although we might have a doctor who might let us get to D4 so maybe we shouldn't, what do you think?" does that not ring any alarms with you? Do you not say, "but wait, we can't take the risk of not having a doctor at lylo, and in any case we need to talk about today and tomorrow first anyway?"

[Ibarra]

I really don't understand. If I say "Hey guys, I think we should lynch at LYLO, although we might have a doctor who might let us get to D4 so maybe we shouldn't, what do you think?" does that not ring any alarms with you? Do you not say, "but wait, we can't take the risk of not having a doctor at lylo, and in any case we need to talk about today and tomorrow first anyway?"

Well if you word it that way, then yes, it does seem suspicious, but how exactly did you get at "Hey guys, I think we should lynch at LYLO, although we might have a doctor who might let us get to D4 so maybe we shouldn't, what do you think?". What I understood from what cjdrum wrote about the doctor was "The doctor could also give results via a successful protect."

[VectorZero]

That was an analogy. I was not rephrasing cjdrum.

How does a successful protect give any result than "we have a doctor, unless the SK withheld the kill"?

[Ibarra]

If the doctor successfully protects someone, then the doctor knows that there's a high probability that the one he protected is innocent.

[_infina_]

Votes:
cjdrum - 1(VectorZero)

[mpolo]

If the doctor successfully protects someone, then the doctor knows that there's a high probability that the one he protected is innocent.

I think that depends on how the flavor pans out. If we just get "no deaths", then the doctor has a 50/50 chance of having protected scum or the target (assuming no withheld kills). If the flavor indicates that a doctor was at work when no kill occurs, then we do indeed have a mini-cop in the doctor.

[VectorZero]

If the doctor successfully protects someone, then the doctor knows that there's a high probability that the one he protected is innocent.

and how does that help anyone except the doctor unless the doctor claims? Which was my point all along: cjdrum was shutting down townie claims prior to d3.

[cjdrum]

Um.

Of course it'll change depending on outcomes of D1/N1 etc. I'm just no good with the numbers.

I was trying to propose something that I believed worked, and checking that it did work. All of a sudden I was insta-scum and a vote on me.

Of course it'll change. I'm not stupid.

[VectorZero]

I was trying to propose something that I believed worked, and checking that it did work.

Could you please state exactly what it was you proposed? Perhaps I've misunderstood, but it looks to me like "At 2-1 lylo, the power role should claim." As far as plans go, that ranks up there with "during a war, try not to get shot" and I have no idea why a townie would need to say that.

[Ibarra]

VZ, I don't know why you are so aggressive over what cjdrum said.
True that he just restated something "obvious", but I don't think that's enough to warrant a vote.