The Resistance 3 - Reset?

[Aardvarki]

Oh, I'm sorry. I missed your last post. I guess I can see where you're coming from. I just interpreted your statement the same way Lataro did. I suppose it's not as bad as he made it out to be.

[roband]

I'll accept the team, I guess.

[slbub]

I have pre-approved the team.

[BoomFrog]

That's five preapprovals, assuming that's what Roband meant.

The current team leader is: BoomFrog
The proposed mission is: 1.

Proposed Team Member 1: webby
Proposed Team Member 2: slbub
Proposed Team Member 3: misnomer


If this mission fails I will have to do an epic thread reread.

[BoomFrog]

EBWOP: More people (including more_people) should send in their approval so we can continue sooner. And to prevent spy trickses.

[webby]

Slbub, did you remember to say you wanted to use your power when accepting the team? If not, do so now.

[slbub]

yes I did remember

[jayhsu]

Vote on the proposed team. Deadline is 4PM EST or thereabouts.

[more_people]

Yeah sorry, I haven't had net access for the past few days. Sending vote in .... now

[jayhsu]

The current team leader is: BoomFrog.
The proposed mission is: 1.

Proposed Team Member 1: Webby
Proposed Team Member 2: slbub
Proposed Team Member 3: Misnomer

Votes:
1. roband - ACCEPT
2. slbub - ACCEPT
3. Misnomer - ACCEPT
4. Aardvarki - ACCEPT
5. Lataro - ACCEPT
6. VectorZero - ACCEPT
7. webby - ACCEPT
8. BoomFrog - ACCEPT
9. weiyaoli - ACCEPT
10. more_people - ACCEPT

Consecutive rejected teams: 2/5

The debate was heated, but at last they managed to come to uneasy terms.

The proposed team has been ACCEPTED. Mission 1 begins now and will end within ~24 hours. Spies, if any, must PM whether the mission succeeds or fails, and default to fail.

Slbub uses In the Spotlight on Misnomer!

Misnomer must submit their mission disposition publically (PASS/FAIL) within the standard 24 hours. Resistance Operatives MUST select PASS and Spies may choose either PASS or FAIL. Failure to submit a disposition defaults to standard rules at the end of the 24 hours (RO select PASS, Spies select FAIL), posted by the mod. Spies may also elect to PM the mod with a PASS disposition to be revealed at the close of the 24-hour period.

[Misnomer]

Naturally, my disposition is...


MISSION FAIL

The Empire shall stand! The Resistance’s missions will fail! Bwahahahahahahaa!


*ahem*

If anybody needs me, I shall be in the wine cellar.

[roband]

Care to admit that more_people is as well? And that VZ only gave him the power so that he could 'out' me?

Only posting because my other games are slow, but I am still annoyed about the above.

[BoomFrog]

Shh,night.

7. You may not post game content in this thread during the mission phase.

[jayhsu]

Webby, slbub and Misnomer went out to retrieve the schematics for the Imperial Sanctum. Webby stood guard while the other two crept into the planning facility where such documents were stored. Misnomer took point, but something was amiss to slbub, and he had hidden a camera on himself to monitor the mission.

His suspicions proved correct when they were surrounded by a squad of Imperial guards and Misnomer casually joined their ranks. The firefight was bloody and bad, but slbub was able to escape, just barely. He and webby returned to report what had happened and reveal Misnomer's betrayal.

Unknown to them, roband had also planted his own camera to monitor the mission...

Mission Disposition:

SUCCESS
SUCCESS
FAILURE

MISSION 1: SABOTAGED!

Missions completed by the Resistance: 0
Missions sabotaged by the Spies: 1


It was imperative that they obtain the schematics, but their options were running out. Perhaps kidnapping and interrogating the chief engineer in charge of developing the Sanctum would yield results.

The second mission has begun.

The current team leader is: weiyaoli (more_people on deck).
The current mission is: [2/3/4]

Current Team Member 1:
Current Team Member 2:
Current Team Member 3:
Current Team Member 4:
[Add others as necessary.]

Plot powers have been provided to the team leader. They must be distributed by the team leader before a team may be proposed, but discussion is permitted to aid the team leader in the distribution.

Consecutive Rejected Teams: 0/5

3 days to deadline.

[jayhsu]

Plot powers have been distributed.

[roband]

Well obviously me using my power was pointless.
Incidentally, I used it on slbub and he passed the mission - but we knew this already.

[jayhsu]

Ignore this post.

[Aardvarki]

Plot powers have been distributed.

Does this mean weiyaoli handed out his plot powers without telling anyone what they were and without any discussion?

Or does it mean that you gave weiyaoli his plot powers and we can discuss them and weiyaoli may hand them out now?

Pardon my confusion. I also have an enormous analysis post written up on my home computer, which I will submit when I return home (in about six hours).

Weiyaoli, what are the plot powers? If you receive "Open Up", based on the new description, you should use it on BoomFrog.

[Aardvarki]

Sorry for double-post, but I just realized this:

Doesn't the new change to "Open Up" make it exactly the same as "Establish Confidence"?

[jayhsu]

Plot powers have been distributed.

Does this mean weiyaoli handed out his plot powers without telling anyone what they were and without any discussion?

Or does it mean that you gave weiyaoli his plot powers and we can discuss them and weiyaoli may hand them out now?

He has received his plot powers, but has not distributed them among players yet.

Doesn't the new change to "Open Up" make it exactly the same as "Establish Confidence"?

Whoops, you're right - I'll change it back. The original wording is correct.

[weiyaoli]

I have received the following plot powers:

Opinion Maker, Overheard Conversation and Open Up.

[Aardvarki]

So... That makes at least two known spies out of three players (Misnomer, m_p, roband), leaving the last seven as either 5/2 or 6/1. If it were 6/1, I find it difficult to believe Misnomer would have done that, as failing this mission would mean handing us #4, giving the spies no net advantage. Because of this, I find it far more likely that one of {m_p, roband} is town. Which one, I can't say. I still think leaving both of them out of missions is in the town's best interests unless we get some more information.

Now, I'm wondering what this says about slbub and webby. The fact that they both passed means nothing, of course. slbub was the one using the ITS, webby was the one who made the initial recommendation of who to use it on. I'd like to think this gives each of them a townie point, because if they were spies, they could have done it differently, so as not to out their teammate. However, either of them could have intended to fail the mission going into it, used (or suggested) ITS on Misnomer expecting him to PASS, and just run the risk of getting hit by KaCEoY. Additionally, the possibility that both webby and slbub are spies exists. In this case, Misnomer failing the mission (and doing so quickly) means that he could be saving his other teammates from possibly getting outed. Because of this possibility, I don't think this gives us any solid information about either of them. It does give us a lot of information that we can speculate on, however.

For {slbub, webby}, there are three possible scenarios:

"All Spies" Scenario: Assuming both of them are spies, that means Misnomer outed himself to prevent the possibility of both of them being outed (if they both FAIL the mission). In this scenario, webby and slbub's actions before the mission mean nothing (there are 2 cop actions, they'll both be used on a spy regardless, who they are used on has no bearing). Additionally, if Misnomer had passed the mission and one of the others had failed, they both would have been sidelined, leaving Misnomer as the only non-sidelined spy. Worth noting, the "All Spies" scenario implies that {Aardvarki, Lataro, VectorZero, BoomFrog, and weiyaoli} must all be town. If this scenario occurred, that means that BF (town) chose all three of the remaining spies to be on a team together. The odds of this are very low. However, the fact that Misnomer failing this mission is in the spies best interests in the "All Spies" scenario means that I must rate this scenario as possible.

"One Spy" Scenario: (This scenario assumes exactly one of {slbub,webby} is a spy.)
In this scenario, it is definitely worth considering that Misnomer's FAIL has a 100% chance of him being outed. Whereas if exactly one of {slbub, webby} were scum, Misnomer passing and the other spy failing outs them to roband. If one of them was a spy and failed instead of Misnomer, we would have 2 known spies out of 4 players {{slbub, webby},{m_p, roband}}, rather than 2 known out of three {{Misnomer}, {m_p, roband}}. Thus, I find the possibility of exactly one of {slbub, webby} being a spy rather unlikely. It's certainly possible, but Misnomer outing himself gave the town more information than we would have gained if Misnomer had passed in this scenario. If there was exactly one spy other than Misnomer on this team, Misnomer failing this mission was a bad move for the spies. The only case where this scenario is valid is if Misnomer is intentionally playing poorly to create wine. Thus, I rate this scenario unlikely.

"No Spies" Scenario: Assuming that Misnomer is the only spy on that mission team, he outed himself to prevent the spies from losing the mission. This is the most likely of the scenarios, based on probability alone (there are 30 ways to choose {1S,2T} from a group of {5T, 3S}, but only 1 way to choose {3S} - Probability analysis below). It also seems most likely that if BF is a spy, he would choose a team with exactly one spy on it. I rate this scenario probable.

Conclusions from this analysis: BoomFrog was the one who chose this team. If BoomFrog is a spy, it makes a lot of sense that he would put exactly one spy on the team. BoomFrog also made no recommendation with his initial team offering for an ITS target (unlike his suggestions in the past). If BoomFrog is a spy, I believe it is incredibly likely that both slbub and webby are town. If BoomFrog is town, I believe it is still more likely than not that both slbub and webby are town - but I can't say that with nearly as much certainty.

Some Statistics: (These statistics assume BoomFrog is town, and chose this team randomly from the set of all players aside from {m_p, roband} - I know this is not exactly the case but that's about the best I can do)
56 Possible team arrangements from {slbub, Misnomer, Aardvarki, Lataro, VZ, webby, BF, weiyaoli} (this is the set of everyone who isn't m_p or roband)
Assuming that set has five town and three spies in it (a safe assumption at this point, I believe) there are:
15 teams of 3 with ZERO spies (Ruled out because Misnomer is a spy)
30 teams of 3 with ONE spy
10 teams of 3 with TWO spies
1 team of 3 with THREE spies

[weiyaoli]

Welcome suggestions on possible uses of Open and Overhead, possibly in conjunction?

To clarify on Opinion Maker, by vote publically, does this only pertain to voting for mission accept/reject which they will have to do publically?

[webby]

The use of open up and overheard conversation could get us three confirmed townies if we play this right.

Personally, I'd like you to give me overheard conversation to use on either VectorZero or Boomfrog (probably VectorZero at this point, I disagree with Aardvarki - I think a spy Boomfrog would have done much better to put two spies on the team, so that Misnomer didn't have to publicly fail). I'd like slbub to be given open up to use on whoever else we think of as scummy.

One scum result would give us another pair you don't trust, leaving 1 scum out of 5. We do mission 4, pass it, and help that our new powers help us pass missions 2 and 3 - worst case we have 50-50 of getting it right.
Two scum results would give us two more pairs, leaving us with three confirmed townies. Again, do mission 4, hope that our new powers help us.
If neither of us get scum results, I guess you'll have to decide whether to trust the four of us (me, slbub and the two we investigated) going on mission 2, which would basically be - 'we win the game if slbub and webby are both resistance' (because if we passed mission 2, we'd pass missions 3 and 4 with the same team).

[BoomFrog]

I was so fucking sure... In retrospect Misnomer was being awfully quiet. I took it to mean he was clueless town just waiting to see how all the chips fell. However, lesson learned, I think we need to keep up the traditional scum hunting techniques. Demand content and opinions from everyone and do analysis posts. To that end, I think everyone should do an analysis of the seven unknown players and everyone should list who they think the two remaining scum are and why.

Aardvarki's analysis is pretty good but slightly flawed. First, I would rate his results more extremely, All spies is unlikly, 1 spy (two total) is very unlikely, and 0 spies (only misnomer is a spy) is very likely. Secondly, if I was a spy I would want to make a team with two spies on it to guarantee that one would be outside the spotlight. That way the mission would surly fail and town would get the least info possible.

I think sblub and Webby are very likely to be town. For them to both be spies I would have had to (as town) randomly pick all three spies. So I think both powers should be used to give them info (one each). Checking out More_Band will not eliminate another spy only confirm a town, therefore it is less useful then checking out someone unknown. (sorry Roband). Therefore open up should be used to open up to sblub and therefore Webby should be given overhear. Unfortunately I think VZ and I are both town so the overhear won't be used to best effect, but I understand others aren't so sure and my logic about open up giving info to sblub is sound.

Opinion maker seems to be useless as far as I can tell.

Lastly, I think we should decide a team then reject it twice and have roband propose it. Letting sblub distribute powers (he's the island in a sea of spies.) Obviously I am putting my eggs all in one basket assuming we didn't have three spies on that mission.

I will be traveling soon so this is probably my last post for 24+ hours.

[BoomFrog]

EBWOP: Slow ninja'd by webby. Open up is given to the player to be exposed and then they choose who to open up to. I obviously suggest Aardvarki be given open up and open up to sblub.

I fully support the assume webby and sblub are town and we win plan. If we do it and it doesn't work then we will have a ton of info for our third mission.

[Lataro]

damn it damn it damn it, I just lost a post and I have no freakin' clue how.

Basics of it, I can see Misnomer outing himself like that in order to try and make a second spy on the team seem less suspicious, as spies are essentially disposable once they've failed a mission, and it serves the spies better to have one confirmed, and make a second look townie, given his disposition to pass it if it failed anyway wouldn't clear him since the argument would be made he knew he didn't have to pass it. I don't think him passing to let a second fail it would of served the spies agenda in the grand scheme of things.

Point two, webby, I really don't like how you've played this game as if we should all trust you to be resistance, with your constantly insisting that you should go on a mission over others, with your directing people on their use of plot powers, and now your desire to control some plot powers. You are either playing extremely aggressively as resistance, which is a very bad play as it makes you look rather bad, or you are playing boldly as scum, in which case, it's a great play because everyone seems to be doing as you're saying for the most part thus far. I really don't trust you as much as you seem to believe we all should.

That all said, I think the powers should be given to to same person, and both should be used on the same target.

Double resistance result=two resistance (likely) or two spies (possible, but less likely)
One of each/two Spy results=one spy among the both of them (extremely likely) or two spies (very very very unlikely)

As for who to give them to, my preferred choices would be to weiyaoli or BF, so the pair of them can be checked out, and if we get double resistance, we can clear up VZ/BF wine, and be able to trust weiyaoli to purpose a good team, unless they are both spies, which is rather unlikely, probability-wise.

[BoomFrog]

Second EBWOP: Ideally we'd do a bunch of analysis first. At least someone double check my assumptions on the Aardvarki weiyaoli connection. I'm obviously not as confident as I was before.

With the two reveal powers we'd prefer to reveal two town OR two spies not one of each. Either both spies or two confirmed town will give us enough to pass missions 2,3,4.

[BoomFrog]

That all said, I think the powers should be given to to same person, and both should be used on the same target.

Double resistance result=two resistance (likely) or two spies (possible, but less likely)
One of each/two Spy results=one spy among the both of them (extremely likely) or two spies (very very very unlikely)

Wtf? this doesn't make sense at all. How does this give more info then one power?

[Lataro]

one power town results can't be trusted, it could be a spy calling a townie town, it's meaningless really. Having both get results adds FAR more weight to it, rather simple.

[webby]

Point two, webby, I really don't like how you've played this game as if we should all trust you to be resistance, with your constantly insisting that you should go on a mission over others, with your directing people on their use of plot powers, and now your desire to control some plot powers. You are either playing extremely aggressively as resistance, which is a very bad play as it makes you look rather bad, or you are playing boldly as scum, in which case, it's a great play because everyone seems to be doing as you're saying for the most part thus far. I really don't trust you as much as you seem to believe we all should.

Why is it bad play? I know I'm resistance, therefore by looking to get myself on teams and help decide the distribution of plot powers, I'm making it more likely that resistance wins. I don't understand why playing aggressively is a bad look. If resistance players don't act aggressively, then the spies, who have more information, have more freedom to subtly control things. I don't necessarily believe you should trust me any more or less than any other player at the moment, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't act like you should all trust me.

In regards to your strategy - for a start, two spies can call each other town, so we wouldn't have full confidence in your case. You can't assume that this is extremely unlikley when it's possible the spies are influencing the decision. Also, there's much less information that we could get from your strategy - at best we get one more pair of spy/town.

[slbub]

I'm not entirely sure why ardvarki was saying the roband/more_people were scum, was is any posts that I missed?

@ lataro what you said about webby was in a sense true for you too, trying to decide who should get what power, all the same I don't think that there is a problem with a bold resistance player, dicitions get made and evey one is happy , well mabey not you. however if you made plays as such with bold plays some might think the same as you.

by the way I am the last resort for a team leader before misnomer gets it and makes it another sabotage so just keep that in mind.

Where do we stand on the whole more_band thing? Like letting the propose teams.

[BoomFrog]

Once powers are distributed we'll have a pretty decent idea for who to have on the team hopefully. We then decide as a group who to put on the team and do a soft vote to confirm it's acceptable. Then we reject until Roband and let him propose the team so that Sblub gets powers.

If Roband and Sblub are both spies we lose, but it's a risk I think I'm willing to take, depending on power results of course.

[webby]

Once powers are distributed we'll have a pretty decent idea for who to have on the team hopefully. We then decide as a group who to put on the team and do a soft vote to confirm it's acceptable. Then we reject until Roband and let him propose the team so that Sblub gets powers.

If Roband and Sblub are both spies we lose, but it's a risk I think I'm willing to take, depending on power results of course.

We'll wait and see what the powers tell us, but right now that's not a risk I think we should take.

[more_people]

Once powers are distributed we'll have a pretty decent idea for who to have on the team hopefully. We then decide as a group who to put on the team and do a soft vote to confirm it's acceptable. Then we reject until Roband and let him propose the team so that Sblub gets powers.

If Roband and Sblub are both spies we lose, but it's a risk I think I'm willing to take, depending on power results of course.

We'll wait and see what the powers tell us, but right now that's not a risk I think we should take.

I agree with GoP. We should wait until the powers tell us what we want. May I suggest give either roband or I open up? So that we can confirm our alignment.

[slbub]

what was roband's power in the first mission supose to do?

[webby]

Ok, I have a new, possibly improved strategy.

Right now, we have at least two scum from Misnomer, roband, more_people.

That means there can only be a maximum of two scum from webby, Boomfrog, weiyaoli, Aardvarki, Lataro, slbub, VectorZero.

One strategy would be to do mission 4 now with four of us, and if it fails, the other three are confirmed town. We could get a fourth confirmed town from the use of powers.

Example:
Open up is used on weiyaoli, and we have slbub learn his alignment. If slbub tells us the result is resistance, we have weiyaoli and three others go on mission 4. If it fails, we know that slbub and the other two who didn't go on the mission are resistance, because the two spies were on the mission, and we also know that weiyaoli is resistance, because we can trust slbub. If it passes, we don't get so much information, but at least we get back to 1-1.

If slbub tells us the result is spy, then we have another pair of which one is spy, leaving us with only 1 scum out of the other 5, so we can pass mission 4 whenever we want.

Summary - using this strategy we can ensure that we either get back to 1-1 or we have 4 confirmed town. This doesn't require the use of Overheard Conversation, which we could use separately.

Thoughts?

[Aardvarki]

I'm not entirely sure why ardvarki was saying the roband/more_people were scum, was is any posts that I missed?

Because of this, I find it far more likely that one of {m_p, roband} is town. Which one, I can't say. I still think leaving both of them out of missions is in the town's best interests unless we get some more information.

The reason one of them must be scum is because back on page 3 or so, m_p copped roband as scum. Thus, either m_p is telling the truth and roband is scum, or m_p is lying and m_p is scum. I've ruled out the possibility of them both being scum at this point (it would have been too bad play for Misnomer to out himself if they were).


BF, if you'll accept me Opening Up to slbub as proof of my towniness, Why not give me Overheard as well to use on Lataro? The worst that could happen is I'm a spy and no information is gained about Lataro. The best is that I'm confirmed town and Lataro's confirmed town/scum. If we're both town, we've got our 2/3/4 teams picked out. Regardless of any outcome assuming slbub is town, we can run mission #4 with a guaranteed success.

Either we have 4 (nearly) confirmed townies {Lataro, Aardvarki, webby, slbub} who we can run #2/3 and add any one for #4
OR we have 3 (confirmed) scum out of four players {Misnomer, Lataro, {roband or m_p}}, or {Misnomer, Aardvarki, {roband or m_p}}, meaning the remaining six are 5/1. From those six, we're guaranteed to pass #4.

The only problem with that strategy is if slbub is scum. My analysis agrees with yours that this is unlikely - but if slbub reports me as a spy, and we build our team based on that and still manage to fail #4, it's because slbub is scum and lied to get me off the #4 team. Additionally, if slbub reports me as town and we still fail #4, it's because both slbub and I are scum.

Every outcome of this is still pretty acceptable for town, in my opinion. Even the worst case scenario (slbub being a spy), which is pretty unlikely, isn't a disaster for the town.


ninja'ed - webby that doesn't really work, mission #4 takes five of us, not four. That means we'd only have two confirmed town if it fails. Getting two more would be difficult.

[webby]

ninja'ed - webby that doesn't really work, mission #4 takes five of us, not four. That means we'd only have two confirmed town if it fails. Getting two more would be difficult.

Oops, you're right - I'll have to rethink.

[slbub]

How the HELL do we know that more_people and Roband are scum?