[V] The Terminator Mafia - Town Win

[cjdrum]

Okay.

Probability NecklaceOfShadow flips Town - 1/2
From there, probability of lynching Town, leading to 2:2 LOSS D3 - 5/6
Probability of lynching scum from NOS flip, leading to 1:3 MYLO D3 - 1/6

Probability NecklaceOfShadow flips scum - 1/2
From there, probability of lynching Town, leading to 1:3 MYLO D3 - 5/6
Probability of lynching scum from NOS flip, leading to instant WIN - 1/6

Therefore.
P(LOSS) = 1/2 * 5/6 = 5/12
P(WIN) = 1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12
P(MYLO) = 1/2 * 1/6 + 1/2 * 5/6 = 1/12 + 5/12 = 1/2


Okay, that's MYLO D3, sorry. However, there's still the nearly-as-likely possibility of instantly losing from lynching today.

[roband]

Ok, I haven't actually read the rest of it, because of a glaring error.

How is NoS's alignment 50:50? No way is it 1/2 chance that she's either one

[cjdrum]

Uh-huh.

NOS is less likely to be Town, based on the fact that we have two Terminators.

This greatly reduces the chance of a win from a lynch today, and also reduces MYLO chance. Lynching today is worse than I expected.

[webby]

That was what this game has been needing! A slightly offbeat analysis with plenty of content in there too.

I think it's clearly better not to lynch today.

If NOS is town, then a successful lynch is 3/1, a no-lynch is 3/2. It's clear that at 3/1, the best strategy is to no-lynch, meaning that we'd get to 2/1. If we're at 3/2, a successful lynch gets us to 2/1. So the only difference is that we lynch at 4/2 instead of 3/2, and it's obvious that you're more likely to pick one of two scum out of five players than two scum out of six.

If NOS is scum, then a no-lynch gets us to 4/1, while an unsuccessful lynch gets us to 3/1, in which case we'd lynch to 2/1. From 4/1, an unsuccessful lynch would get us to 2/1 anyway. It's clear that we'd do better picking one scum out of five than one out of six, so no-lynch is clearly the dominant strategy in that case.

So overall, I think I've proved that no-lynch is clearly the dominant option here, even if I've phrased it so poorly it will only make sense to me.

I'm not quite sure what to make of the previous discussion, so I'm going to leave it there for the moment, especially as it's after midnight here.

[webby]

And I love that well over 20% of the game's content has been posted since I woke up this morning, even though the game's been going on for three weeks.

[roband]

I see your point. A mislynch today puts us in a bad (but rescuable) situation.
Your figures are confusing me though. They're the same for any of us, as far as I can see.

The problem is that you're suggesting a NL at 5+2. I'd much rather NL at 4+1 (unless I'm certain on a read).

Also, I don't know why I'm discussing strategy with you, I'm fairly sure you're scum by the way

ninja-webby: yeah, but I wanna lynch CJayyyyy. He's scummmmmyyyyyyyy

NLing today would be fine, if I didn't have any reads. But I do. And I think they're strong enough to be acted upon.

[webby]

The problem is that you're suggesting a NL at 5+2. I'd much rather NL at 4+1 (unless I'm certain on a read).

I assume you mean 3-1? It's pretty obvious that you lynch at 4-1, because you get two chances at lynching rather than just one.

And we're not suggesting NL at 5-2, we're suggesting NL at 4-2 or 5-1, we don't know which. And I would no-lynch in both those cases.

[roband]

Ah shit, just remembered about NoS being modkilled and that's why CJ is referring to her in his figures. Hmm...

Yeah, that makes more sense. Sorry.

And yes, I meant NL at 3-1.

[webby]

It's a busy weekend, so I haven't been on much. I'll try to post some proper content tomorrow or on Monday morning (which is probably Sunday where most of you guys are).

Don't mess up the deadlines - remember that Monday evening Gopher's time is likely to be your late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

But I think when the time comes we're going to vote No Lynch?

[Not A Raptor]

It's a busy weekend, so I haven't been on much. I'll try to post some proper content tomorrow or on Monday morning (which is probably Sunday where most of you guys are).

Don't mess up the deadlines - remember that Monday evening Gopher's time is likely to be your late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

But I think when the time comes we're going to vote No Lynch?

Yeah. It's pretty settled, what we're going to do. Math works! I worry, though, that simply relying on the numbers might kill discussion. Math shows us the odds, discussion tilts them.

[Gopher of Pern]

24 Hours remaining til Deadline.

Votals:
NecklaceOfShadow - 1 (Cjdrum)

NecklaceOfShadow and Tinman are due to be modkilled If I haven't got any replacements.

[roband]

Time to start voting NL then I guess.

Or shall we just lynch NoS rather than NLing?

[webby]

Time to start voting NL then I guess.

Or shall we just lynch NoS rather than NLing?

We can't no-lynch anymore. Tinman is going to be modkilled as well now.

Right now if I had to choose I'd vote cjdrum, I don't think much has changed since my last analysis. I'll have a proper look through it in the morning (~9 hours before deadline).

[roband]

Ah crap.

Yeah OK then, so we
vote cjdrum

Scumplayers - I'm going away for 4 days and will only have internet for as long as my phone battery lasts. To prevent lurkers killing the game, consider doing the honourable thing and kill me please

[roband]

Well actually, how long will night be Mod?

If I can get away without posting until Friday evening (UTC) then don't kill me scum!

Anyway, I will be away for that time, but trying to check in. Camping without power makes my smartphone no smarter than something from 6 years ago...

[webby]

Ok, I read through the last part of the thread again,

I have no strong opinion either way on whether NAR is scum, still not quite sure what to make of his analysis.
I have no idea about slbub - he's been acting so scummy, now he seems to have disappeared.
So that just leaves cjdrum and roband. I've been thinking cjdrum has been acting scummy all game. I'm not as convinced as roband is, and I don't like how sure roband is, but overall through the game I think roband has been more townie than cjdrum.

And that's all the players left in the game. I'm convinced Tinman is town and I would lean towards NecklaceofShadow being scum.

Vote: cjdrum

[Not A Raptor]

*sigh* Well, shit. Tinman, too? Fuck.

Biting the bullet...

Vote: cjdrum

[roband]

Deadline in just over an hour, and currently CJ is getting lynched with 3 votes. I don't expect anyone else to post tbh.

[cjdrum]

I posted!

So... Deadline is about nowish.
Vote self? Not vote self?

Either way. I've lost. Not sure about you guys. Well done, winners!

[roband]

I posted!

So... Deadline is about nowish.
Vote self? Not vote self?

Either way. I've lost. Not sure about you guys. Well done, winners!

Yeah, deadline is now. And if your faction win, you still win. You're just... dead

[cjdrum]

Well hey.

Bah! Go Town!

[cjdrum]

I mean...

Go probability!

Work for us!

[Gopher of Pern]

Cjdrum has been lynched. He was T850 Model 101.

Necklace Of Shadow and Tinman have both been modkilled. Necklace Of Shadow was the T1000. Tinman was Hal Vukovich.

Town wins. Flavour coming shortly.

[roband]

Woo.

[cjdrum]

Why can I never win as scum? NEVAR?

[roband]

Cheers GoP, I enjoyed that.

[Gopher of Pern]

It was boring in the safe house, with nothing to do all day. It was finally dawning on Hal that Kyle might be telling the truth. He starting preparing some homemade pipebombs, thinking they might be the only way to defend against the Terminator, short of a rocket launcher.

Come nightfall, it was starting to become apparent that something was wrong.Hal and one of the Sarahs’s were missing. The remaining 4 Connors started looking for them. A grisly sight greeted them at the Ice machine. Hal was pinned to the wall, with a huge blade going through his chest. The blade was wielded by Sarah, but not in any normal fashion. Her arm was normal until the elbow, where it slowly turned into a shining blade. Fake Sarah turns her head in a slow, stuttering action.

“Mu...st Ki....ll Sa..........rah......”

There seems to something wrong with it. Hal gasps, and reaches into his jacket, and pulls out one of his pipebombs.

“Run Sarah!”

He forces the Fake Sarah’s mouth open and stuffs the pipebomb down her throat. A few seconds later, it explodes, tearing the 2 of them apart.

The 4 remaining Sarah’s, alone with nowhere to go, immediately begin arguing amongst themselves. How can we trust one another? What should we do? The argument was interrupted by the sound of screeching tires. The Terminator had arrived.

The women quickly rushed back inside in a panic, not knowing what to do. One of them locked the door, and a moment of levity was had, when another pointed out that that’s hardly going to stop the Terminator. They could hear the footsteps coming closer. One of the Sarah’s looks at the pipebombs, and, panicking, lights one of the fuses. They all look at each other and run out the back door. The Terminator kicks down the front door and steps a couple of paces into the room, right next to the bag of bombs. It’s eyes widen as he sees the explosives. The house is ripped apart in an almighty roar.

The women pick themselves up, dazed, but mostly unhurt. Sirens wail as emergency services arrive at the scene. As the paramedics looks over the Sarahs, Police pick over the remains of the explosion. It seems nothing had survived.

The future is safe.....for now.

[Gopher of Pern]

Cheers GoP, I enjoyed that.

Thanks for replacing in!

Annoyed at the drop out rate. The game had 1 Doc (Kyle), 1 Cop (Hal) and 1 Godfather (T1000). I thought it was balanced, as the cop only had a 1/8 chance of hitting scum, and could have gotten confused with the godfather (Not that they were playing the 2nd day.) Though I wonder if you guys would have worked out what was with the Connor names....

[webby]

Yes I noticed but chose not to break the game with a mass middle name letter claim because that would have been no fun. :p

[webby]

Thanks to GoP for running the game, shame about the lurkiness.

Just read the spoilers. Poor cjdrum, thinking you were going well on day 1! I think the dodginess with changing your vote to Robot_Raptor on day 1 was unnecessary. Then there were just a few little things, like an attempt to buddy me (which felt like what roband did in C9) and voting for NoS instead of No Lynch, which was a blatant attempt to look like you found scum. No idea how roband was so certain though.