That was what this game has been needing! A slightly offbeat analysis with plenty of content in there too.
I think it's clearly better not to lynch today.
If NOS is town, then a successful lynch is 3/1, a no-lynch is 3/2. It's clear that at 3/1, the best strategy is to no-lynch, meaning that we'd get to 2/1. If we're at 3/2, a successful lynch gets us to 2/1. So the only difference is that we lynch at 4/2 instead of 3/2, and it's obvious that you're more likely to pick one of two scum out of five players than two scum out of six.
If NOS is scum, then a no-lynch gets us to 4/1, while an unsuccessful lynch gets us to 3/1, in which case we'd lynch to 2/1. From 4/1, an unsuccessful lynch would get us to 2/1 anyway. It's clear that we'd do better picking one scum out of five than one out of six, so no-lynch is clearly the dominant strategy in that case.
So overall, I think I've proved that no-lynch is clearly the dominant option here, even if I've phrased it so poorly it will only make sense to me.
I'm not quite sure what to make of the previous discussion, so I'm going to leave it there for the moment, especially as it's after midnight here.