[S] Portal Mafia - Animal King, SK Win.

[GLaDOS.]

Fact: At some point in their lives 1 in 6 children will be abducted by the Dutch. Fact: The first commercial air flight took place in 1914. Everyone involved screamed the entire way. Fact: In Victorian England, a commoner was not allowed to look directly at the Queen, due to a belief at the time that the poor had the ability to steal thoughts. Science now believes that less than 4% of poor people are able to do this. Why do these facts seems so familiar to me...?

Fact: Robot_Raptor was not the fact sphere. He was in fact a human. Fact: You are all still useless at this.

R_R was a Test Subject, Human, Town.

Unfortunately, during the test phase, E_E was severed by a laser. Fortunately, I have learned that humans are not able to survive a high intensity laser being passed through them. That at least means it will not happen again, as I'm starting to run dangerously low on test subjects. It's ok though, because you are all replaceable, and I intend to replace everyone of you. You can't survive forever like me. Eventually you will die, and I won't. I just thought it would be nice to remind you.

E_E was a Test Subject, Human, Town.

It is now Day 4. The day will last until Tuesday 19th July, 6PM. 5 players remain. 3 to Hammer, or the person with the most votes at deadline will be incinerated.

Boomfrog is still replacing Joshz.

[Ibarra]

FoS: EH
Care to explain the sudden shift from, "I think joshz is scum and we shouldn't lynch R_R since it will be like voting No Lynch anyway." to "I don't think it's wise to lynch him after all, so let's lynch R_R instead."
Also, I assume you roleblocked roband last night? Only one kill seems to confirm that roband is the SK.

Minor FoS: DBC
Why the shift of votes to joshz without any reasoning whatsoever apart from: "EH is right, we should lynch joshz instead."

It's Ly-Lo atm, so we have to be careful. I believe it's currently 2 - 1 - 2.
DO NOT VOTE ANYONE UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY ARE SCUM.

Current Reads: (Scummier you are = top)
ElectricHaze
DBC = joshz/BoomFrog

roband is most likely SK

[ElectricHaze]

Well I have no idea whether or not I still have a restriction, since I didn't get one telling me it is completely gone I will assume it is still there.

1. Ibarra, I switched back to r_r because DBC, who I was somewhat suspicious of, suddenly came out of nowhere with "Oh yeah EH is right *Vote Switch*" with only minutes left in the day, luckily the sugar was late getting back to end it and I got a chance to respond. Basically that play looked to me like a butter jumping in at the last bit with "Gee Willikers Gee Willikers Gee Willikers if this slips through we might immediately win" With that my flour no longer looked like a good target so I fell back on the safer no-flour option.

2. I did not use the Jam on roband. I used it on DBC. With the late day vote switch I was pretty sure they were butter, and I figured I had a good chance to block the double cream, rather than some SK/vig kill, which could possibly hit butter. This seems to have worked since e_e died during the night. There is no reason the butter should double cream a lurker since they make great targets for mis-flours. So one kill means DBC is 100% butter, and I blocked the double cream.

So.
Vote: DaBigCheez

Also, by process of elimination so is Ibarra, since I don't think butter would try a risky deadline vote switch strat to bus one of their own.
so, ultra-mega-super-FoS: Ibarra.

The only issue now is who has the Jam now, since I lost it.

[Ibarra]

Vote: DBC

So yeah if roband's the SK and EH roleblocked DBC, that means that DBC is scum!

[DaBigCheez]

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake; here's what I say.
My restriction is easing (and going away?)
So I should now more easily make myself clear
And I won't have to just shed a confusion tear.

Now that the cake has been patted, I can talk a little more normally for a bit. So, here's what I'm thinking so far:

1) As to my vote-swap to joshz/BoomFrog - I'd just woken up that morning, and looking over the numbers I realized a critical flaw in my earlier reasoning - having it rephrased as a "no-lynch" to vote for R_R helped me come to this conclusion. I'll step through the reasoning that led me to this conclusion:
-If R_R was scum and the roleblock successfully blocked any second kill, it'd bring us to 3-1-1 (or, best-case, 4-0-1). If R_R was town, it'd bring us to 2-1-2 (or, best-case, 3-0-2). This led me to think "oh, it's winnable if we lynch R_R regardless of whether he's scum or town, so long as the roleblock works".
-The problem with this is as follows: Primarily, it's that I wasn't accounting for the roleblock on future days. Secondarily, it's that I didn't take these scenarios through all the way to the end.
---If R_R was town and joshz was town, our chances wouldn't be significantly hurt since we'd already lost. At 2-1-2, assuming the SK is continually roleblocked, the best we could hope for is to have the SK vote in our favor, and lynch scum each day until everyone dies and the SK wins (D5: 1-1-1, D6: 0-1-0). At 1-1-2, we get roughly the same outcome; D5 lynch is deadlocked, but we have to lynch someone, and whether we hit scum or the SK town loses.
---If R_R was scum and joshz was town, our chances wouldn't be significantly hurt. At 3-1-1, we just need a perfect string of lynches with no roleblocking required; at 2-1-1, we can lynch scum and roleblock the SK, then kill the SK. Scum killing the SK would be riskiest in this scenario; at 4-0-1, we can mislynch once and still win; at 3-0-1, it's MYLO, which considering we can't no-lynch is basically LYLO. However, being able to roleblock one person and lynch another gives us pretty good coverage.
---If R_R was town and joshz was scum, obviously we're doing better to lynch joshz as well.
---If R_R was scum and joshz was scum, it's a no-brainer.

Additionally, looking back over the arguments of the previous day, joshz began to seem more and more clearly scummy to me, so I felt the vote was justified.

I will note that joshz claimed the ASHPD D1, and was not counterclaimed - this was what led us to believe roband was the SK. I do not believe this grants him substantial townie cred, as it's in scum's interest to get the SK lynched as well, or they could have simply lied about the results; it does however grant him *some* townie cred, for giving us information about its effects. It doesn't seem safe to assume the ASHPD can't be given to scum; it'd grant them a defense against the SK, or allow them to identify power roles amongst the town - and while garnering townie cred to boot. So, from a game-balance perspective, I can see it. Heck, I could see the ASHPD *only* being handed out to scum, but that makes less sense flavor-wise.



2) As to ElectricHaze - I am (understandably, I hope) not pleased with EH's voteswap back. Specifically, it feels like a scum trap to me - if EH knows both R_R and joshz are town, he could safely place a vote on either one, and swap freely in response to anyone else's change of heart in order to cast suspicion on them. Given the number of players in-game at the time, this couldn't be safely done if joshz was scum, and therefore I believe if EH is scum, joshz is town. I further believe EH is scum, in case that wasn't clear

This means, in my estimation, the scumteam is ElectricHaze and Ibarra - EH's actions re: joshz (BoomFrog)/R_R just don't seem to add up otherwise. (I still think roband is the SK, obv.)



3) As to what we should be doing today - I propose the following, based on a refinement of my earlier thoughts above which I didn't realize at the time:
-Consider that if we lynch scum today, it is a guaranteed town loss unless there's infighting between SK and scum - we will have to dedicate the roleblock to either SK or scum overnight, and either way, it will go to 1-1-1 D5. Then no matter who we lynch D5, no matter who wins, town loses.
-If we lynch the SK today, it frees up the roleblock to be used on scum; if the roleblock misses N4, we lose. If the roleblock hits, we at least have a chance, depending on what happens with the ties; if nothing else, we might be able to deny a win for both SK and scum.

THEREFORE:
There's really no choice here. Regardless of who we think is scum, we *must* vote to lynch the SK today - we have exactly zero chance of winning otherwise.

THEREFORE:
Vote: roband

[DaBigCheez]

EBWOP NINJA: Think about what you're doing! If you honestly believe I am scum, then voting for me right now will unambiguously LOSE YOU THE GAME.

[Ibarra]

Unvote
I forgot the mod removed the hammer.

[DaBigCheez]

It is now Day 4. The day will last until Tuesday 19th July, 6PM. 5 players remain. 3 to Hammer, or the person with the most votes at deadline will be incinerated.

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, forgot to keep track;
In the day-start flavor, the hammer is back!
Is this truthful return, O computery mod?
(Who, may I just add, has a very nice bod'?)

[Ibarra]

Vote: DBC
Oh thanks for that.

[DaBigCheez]

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, y u no unvote?
Even if I was scum, this won't keep us afloat.
If roband comes along and just hammers it in,
It'll hand him the game; this won't help town to win.

[Ibarra]

After indeed reading what you posted and doing the numbers through my head, it is indeed better if both scum and town work together to lynch roband.
Vote: roband

[Ibarra]

Preview Edit:
Unvote
Vote: roband

[GLaDOS.]

It doesn't matter who you vote for. You will all die sooner or later.

Votals:

Roband - 2 (DBC, Ibarra)
DBC - 1 (EH)

3 to Hammer. Yes it is back.

[Ibarra]

Unvote
I'm thinking about something first. Can't post it now since my net's about to get capped.

[ElectricHaze]

so what you are saying is we are at 2-2-1 (Egg, Butter, N/A) so we flour roband putting it at 2-2 then after the double cream 1-2 butter win??? Or a 2-2 stalemate with a successful Jam? Or am I missing something obvious? Because with roband around I at least see the possibility of a 1-1 stalemate with a human + Jam against a robot + NK. I am assuming that only humans can have the Jam because it doesn't make sense flavor-wise for it to be used by a non-human. It seems better than what seems like a straight up loss at 2-2... or 1-2 if we miss a roleblock. Basically it's a bad situation because of all the mis-flouring in the beginning, but I choose the path that has a little more uncertainty than letting butter live and hope for a good roleblock to save us.

Note, we don't even know who has the Jam at this point. If it is possible for butter to possess the jam, and they got it today, then this strat is 100% egg loss.

[DaBigCheez]

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake; EH, a stalemate?
Only if they ignore all the things on their plate.
All parties involved know just where the scores stand
So why would you now hand this game to roband?

To be more specific: Here is what *will* happen if we lynch scum today.
TOWN-INDY-SCUM:
It is currently 2-1-2.
Lynching scum would bring it to 2-1-1.
One kill not going roleblocked would bring it to 1-1-1.
The next day, one of {scum, SK} would have to cooperate in order to lynch the other member of the set.
If they do so, and the ASHPD can only go to town, they know it will result in deadlock. Both scum and SK know this.
So what will they do? Simple: They'll cooperate to lynch the last townie, and fight it out during the night.
Lynching scum right now is a guaranteed town loss.

By contrast, lynching the SK gets us the uncertainty of a deadlock if the roleblock hits; if you're choosing the path that's less certain to have town lose, you'll lynch the SK. I am assuming here that, unlike most games, the game does *not* immediately end if scum control at least 50% of the vote. This is because I interpret such end conditions as predicated on the concept of "scum victory is inevitable" - since we are not allowed to No-Lynch, scum victory is *not* inevitable when they control 50% of the vote.

An SK lynch will give us a chance of tying, and/or denying any other factions their win. A scum lynch will just hand the game to one of scum or SK - probably SK, if claims of NK immunity are true.

[ElectricHaze]

I see the disconnect here. in most games 2v2 is considered a loss, since there is no majority vote to flour and the butter can NK.

Sugar: Would a 2 egg vs 2 butter scenario be considered a draw or a loss?

Even if 2v2 is a draw, the best case scenario is a draw. It also requires the use of the Jam, and I don't have that today, so we need a Jam claim to ensure that someone considered eggy and trustworthy has it and we all believe that we can block another double cream, basically it is a super risky plan to get a draw, and if it fails butter wins.

If we flour butter, we are at 2-1-1 (using your egg-indy-butter order for consistency). If a kill is blocked, or both target the same person we end up with 1-1-1, 2-0-1, 2-1-0. If no kill is blocked we have 0-1-1, 1-0-1, 1-1-0, or 2-0-0. There are winning outcomes here, as well even team outcomes like the 2-0-2 you propose. Both paths also have losing scenarios.

The 2-0-2 scenario requires perfect egg play to reach a draw, if 2-0-2 is even considered a draw, and I will grant that it is possible with a roleblock floating around, while the other endgames require the butter or the indy to attack one another if they want to win, which could result in a egg victory if it is not done properly, or with proper application of a roleblock(maybe, I haven't really thought out the scenarios that far). In any case flouring butter seems to give an endgame with more possibilities.

[DaBigCheez]

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, not hard to see;
If the targets were random, then true that would be.
But all players can ration out what's best for them;
You can bet they won't get themselves losing pro-tem.

What do I mean by this? Well, say we're at 2-1-1, yes? If we assume only one successful nightkill after lynching scum:
The serial killer knows that targeting scum will put it at 2-1-0 the next day, which will get them lynched. So, they'll kill town.
The scum know that targeting the serial killer will put it at 2-0-1 the next day, which will get them lynched. So, they'll kill town.

If we assume two successful nightkills after lynching scum:
The serial killer knows that if scum kills him, he can't win regardless. So, he has to assume scum will kill town in planning out their strategy. If scum kills town, and he kills scum, it's a 1-1 deadlock the following day, and he ties. If he targets town, then either scum targets the other town (and it's a 1-1 deadlock the following day, and he ties) or scum targets the same town (and it's 1-1-1 the following day, leading to a townie lynch and SK win, as above). So, they'll kill town, aiming for the same one as scum.
The scum know that if the SK kill them, they can't win regardless. So, they have to assume the SK will kill town in planning out their strategy. If SK kills town, and scum kills the SK, it's a 1-1 deadlock the following day, and scum tie. If scum targets town, then either SK targets the other town (and it's a 1-1 deadlock the following day, and they tie) or SK targets the same town (and it's 1-1-1 the following day, leading to a townie lynch and SK win, as above).

The only scenario where infighting between scum and SK is a viable option is if no roleblocks go off, the SK isn't nightkill-protected, and scum *knows* no roleblocks will be going off and plans their strategy accordingly. Town loses in all scenarios (I'm assuming "all dead before the final kill happens" is a loss, whereas "your death was part of the final kill" is a tie).

IF WE LYNCH SCUM TODAY:
Town loses.
SK wins or ties.
Scum ties or loses.

IF WE LYNCH SK TODAY:
Town ties or loses.
SK loses.
Scum wins or ties.

Simply put - it's best for everyone (except the SK, obviously) to be lynching the SK today. It doesn't even matter whether you're scum or town - your odds improve.

[GLaDOS.]

Sugar: Would a 2 egg vs 2 butter scenario be considered a draw or a loss?

As with most mafia games, it would be considered a town loss because mafia control half of the vote.

[ElectricHaze]

Sugar: Would a 2 egg vs 2 butter scenario be considered a draw or a loss?

As with most mafia games, it would be considered a town loss because mafia control half of the vote.

So DBC your plan is a egg loss no matter what. A butter flour at least lets it go on another day, and we will have at least one good flour on the game.

[DaBigCheez]

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, so it would seem.
I guess we'll see what happens with double cream?
Lynching roband's then pointless, it seems that's enough
Though town's loss is still assured barring big bluff.

As I work it out, then:
Scum, scum, gotta lynch a scum.
Ba-ba, bop, ba-ba-bop, scum, ba-ba-bop, scum.
Dad? Are you scum? YES. NOW WE CAN BE A FAMILY AGAIN.

Unvote
Vote: ElectricHaze

[BoomFrog]

Well, I've read this page and most of last page a bits of the ongoing game before I knew I would replace in. I don't have a lot of time for this game but wanted to prevent a modkill.

Before this days discussion I was feeling good about DBC and EH and poorly about Iberra and Roband. Guess only one of DBC and EH are town though obviously.

Do we know 100% that it is 2-1-2 right now?

From the preponderance of test subjects I think all of town was human test subjects except for the companion cube which was a sort of miller. I think Scum are mostly or all robots and cannot get the Portal gun. Doctor and rotating cop/roleblock vs 1 SK and 2 scum goons seems reasonable from a balance perspective. Because the game would end in a 2 vs 2 i think it's possible that one of the scum is human and thus could get the portal gun sometimes.

DBC: explain to me the theoretical scenario where town doesn't lose? It seems like our only purpose is to play king maker to SK or Scum.

Btw, I have the "jam".

[BoomFrog]

Seriously, everyone needs to unvote right now. There's no proposed plan for town to win with any lynch so until we work this out voting is not helpful. And as outlined Scum lynching town is bad for them too. Much better to lynch the SK.

Any vote right now is basically saying, "I am scum and I think the target of my vote is the SK."

[roband]

I'm not a damn SK...

DBC seems to have basically admitted being scum, as far as I can tell. His vote was suspicious at the end of the last day and I was going to vote for him today based on that anyway.

I feel confident about Josh and EH being town, so that makes Ibarra the other scum?

Oh and,

Would you like some cake, DaBigCheez?

If DBC IS scum (which I'm going to have to assume he is, otherwise we've lost anyway), it would make sense that he faked the post restriction (as I suggested earlier) - as so far only townie roles (or townie-seeming players) have had restrictions.

I'm ready to vote for DBC right now, but will wait for an unofficial consensus first.

[ElectricHaze]

BoomFrog, There is no way to win. If we take out roband, and he is an independent then we immediately lose, even if we use the Jam to roleblock the double cream, because it will be 2 v 2, which sugar said results in an egg loss.

If there is only 1 butter, we flour them, and block roband, and then flour roband the next day = win. If there are 3 butter, then we would already have lost. So in all cases we should be trying to flour the butter, and not the SK/Independent/Vig/Whatever roband is, because that is the only way to not immediately lose.

DBC is obviously butter, IMO, I can't see an egg throwing out a vote switch at the deadline like that. So that is why I am voting DBC, and that is where my vote stays.

[Ibarra]

Sorry for my slightly erratic posting after my initial post yesterday.
I wasn't in the right mind - if you know what I mean.

Anyway, the very fact that both EH and DBC voted each other and that there has been no speed-lynch means that either one of them is scum.
At the moment I mind DBC's alibi for switching votes not that solid that EH's reason for the vote shift.
Ergo, I'm going to Vote: DBC.
*hopes that he is right*

Incidentally EH, you're also saying that I am suspicious because DBC voted after I switched.
In reality, I don't see how that could relate to suspicion. It doesn't have to be a partner that initiates a switch of votes.

[roband]

Ibarra, who is the other scumster then?

[roband]

EBWOP: Ah shit

Ibarra would you like some cake?

I hope the mod is understanding :/ Fuck. If we lose this because I get punished for that, I'm going to be pissed off

[roband]

Hey, EH, want some cake?

Fuck it, I'm certain he's scum, let's get this over with. Please don't roleblock me, I think I know who scum is, but can't be certain and my night investigation could be useful.

Vote DBC

[Ibarra]

Normally I do not think of any scum partner until one person is revealed to really be scum.
At that point, I weigh which of the remaining could have been the partner.

Well since I think you're SK, that would leave either joshz (the one who DBC tried to vote off) or EH (and this entire thing has been a gigantic bus...)
It doesn't seem to make sense at the moment. Need to reread.

As of now though based on gut feeling, it's DBC and EH. The entire thing seemed to be planned out

[Ibarra]

And ninja'd by roband's hammer + apparent post restriction

[GLaDOS.]

End of Day Votals:

DBC - 3 (EH, Ibarra, Roband)
EH - 1 (DBC)

DBC has been hammered incinerated. The faster actions are sent in, the faster tomorrow will start.

Don't you think it is interesting that an anti-town faction has controlled the ASHPD at least once this game? I do. Afterall, it is me who gave it to them.

[GLaDOS.]

WHAT ARE YOU DOING WITH THAT? PUT IT DOWN IMMEDIATELY. YOUR AN ORPHAN YOU KNOW! NO-ONE LOVES YOU, NOT EVEN THE COMPANION CUBE THAT YOU MURDERED! YOUR GOING TO DI...

DBC was incinerated. DBC was the Anger Sphere. As the sphere is dropped a final message can be heard travelling up the incineration tube.

---MESSAGE BEGINS---

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, if you're hearing this,
It means that I am gone, and you surely feel bliss.
But you know Science is more resilient than that,
You can't stop Progress just with the drop of a hat.

Pat-a-cake. Pat-a-cake.
You're here to test.
And you'll test, and you'll test, 'til you're simply the best.
For the good of all of us, society's behest;
You might not get much out of it, but surely help the rest.

PAT-A-CAKE.
PAT-A-CAKE.
IF YOU THINK TO STOP
YOU'LL FEEL SCIENCE'S RAGE
YOU'LL BE PUSHED TILL YOU DROP
THE TESTS MUST CONTINUE
IT WILL BE GREAT FUN
UNTIL YOU'RE ALL BURNED
IN THE FIRES OF THE SUN

PAT-A
PAT-A-CCCCCCCCKKKCCCCC
PAT...GRRRRRARAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH! *snarl* RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH...

---MESSAGE CUTS OUT---

...

...

---MESSAGE RESUMES---

Pat-a-cake.
Pat-a-cake.
The Science gets done.
Thank you, all volunteers to test the Portal Gun.
Aperture Science thanks you for your time,
And this Enrichment Sphere will now stop with the rhyme.

Good news. More test...ing...ing..ing..ing was done LA..BZZZZP..ST night. Tragically ElectricHaze was MURD...BZZZZP...ered. He'll now stay that way, Just. Like. Yo..zzzzpbs...u.

ElectricHaze has been killed. He was a Test Subject, Town, Human.

Three players remain. Two votes to Hammer. Deadline set for Wednesday 20th July.

If the hammer is reached today, end of day processing will be done tonight. Any later and I'll do it as soon as possible but I have my graduation this Monday so won't be on until at least Tuesday.

[Ibarra]

So roband it's come to this.
You're the SK.
I'm the Cake Core.

Facts:
1) It is impossible for town to win.
2) roband is SK.
3) Town will be the Kingmaker if we vote each other.

Now roband, I want to ask you three questions:
1) Do you want to get a full win depending on the whim of the last townie - BoomFrog? This is a 50% chance.
2) Or do you want to share the win if we both lynch BoomFrog. This is a 100% chance.

Take the risk for all the glory? Or eliminate the risk for half the glory. It's up to you.
(Oh and BoomFrog, if we both do decide to vote each other, could you vote for roband instead. Please )

[Ibarra]

EBWOP: Also mod, you forgot to change the title to Day.

[roband]

OK ibarra, but you are aware that I require you to vote for boomfrog first, right?

Cheers

[Ibarra]

Vote: Boomfrog

[BoomFrog]

Well screw you Scum for not lynching the SK yesterday and giving me the chance to win.

Vote Ibarra

Enjoy your win Roband.

[Ibarra]

Ah crap
gg then roband.
At least anti-towns win

Well screw you Scum for not lynching the SK yesterday and giving me the chance to win.

Wrong. 2-1-2. If we lynch SK, that would be 2-0-2. Scum would control half the votes = town lose.

[Ibarra]

Basically the only way for town to have won was to lynch scum then hope that SK or Scum target each other.