Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake; here's what I say.
My restriction is easing (and going away?)
So I should now more easily make myself clear
And I won't have to just shed a confusion tear.
Now that the cake has been patted, I can talk a little more normally for a bit. So, here's what I'm thinking so far:
1) As to my vote-swap to joshz/BoomFrog - I'd just woken up that morning, and looking over the numbers I realized a critical flaw in my earlier reasoning - having it rephrased as a "no-lynch" to vote for R_R helped me come to this conclusion. I'll step through the reasoning that led me to this conclusion:
-If R_R was scum and the roleblock successfully blocked any second kill, it'd bring us to 3-1-1 (or, best-case, 4-0-1). If R_R was town, it'd bring us to 2-1-2 (or, best-case, 3-0-2). This led me to think "oh, it's winnable if we lynch R_R regardless of whether he's scum or town, so long as the roleblock works".
-The problem with this is as follows: Primarily, it's that I wasn't accounting for the roleblock on future days. Secondarily, it's that I didn't take these scenarios through all the way to the end.
---If R_R was town and joshz was town, our chances wouldn't be significantly hurt since we'd already lost. At 2-1-2, assuming the SK is continually roleblocked, the best we could hope for is to have the SK vote in our favor, and lynch scum each day until everyone dies and the SK wins (D5: 1-1-1, D6: 0-1-0). At 1-1-2, we get roughly the same outcome; D5 lynch is deadlocked, but we have to lynch someone, and whether we hit scum or the SK town loses.
---If R_R was scum and joshz was town, our chances wouldn't be significantly hurt. At 3-1-1, we just need a perfect string of lynches with no roleblocking required; at 2-1-1, we can lynch scum and roleblock the SK, then kill the SK. Scum killing the SK would be riskiest in this scenario; at 4-0-1, we can mislynch once and still win; at 3-0-1, it's MYLO, which considering we can't no-lynch is basically LYLO. However, being able to roleblock one person and lynch another gives us pretty good coverage.
---If R_R was town and joshz was scum, obviously we're doing better to lynch joshz as well.
---If R_R was scum and joshz was scum, it's a no-brainer.
Additionally, looking back over the arguments of the previous day, joshz began to seem more and more clearly scummy to me, so I felt the vote was justified.
I will note that joshz claimed the ASHPD D1, and was not counterclaimed - this was what led us to believe roband was the SK. I do not believe this grants him substantial townie cred, as it's in scum's interest to get the SK lynched as well, or they could have simply lied about the results; it does however grant him *some* townie cred, for giving us information about its effects. It doesn't seem safe to assume the ASHPD can't be given to scum; it'd grant them a defense against the SK, or allow them to identify power roles amongst the town - and while garnering townie cred to boot. So, from a game-balance perspective, I can see it. Heck, I could see the ASHPD *only* being handed out to scum, but that makes less sense flavor-wise.
2) As to ElectricHaze - I am (understandably, I hope) not pleased with EH's voteswap back. Specifically, it feels like a scum trap to me - if EH knows both R_R and joshz are town, he could safely place a vote on either one, and swap freely in response to anyone else's change of heart in order to cast suspicion on them. Given the number of players in-game at the time, this couldn't be safely done if joshz was scum, and therefore I believe if EH is scum, joshz is town.
I further believe EH is scum, in case that wasn't clear
This means, in my estimation, the scumteam is ElectricHaze and Ibarra
- EH's actions re: joshz (BoomFrog)/R_R just don't seem to add up otherwise. (I still think roband is the SK, obv.)
3) As to what we should be doing today - I propose the following, based on a refinement of my earlier thoughts above which I didn't realize at the time:
-Consider that if we lynch scum today, it is a guaranteed town loss
unless there's infighting between SK and scum - we will have to dedicate the roleblock to either SK or scum overnight, and either way, it will go to 1-1-1 D5. Then no matter who we lynch D5, no matter who wins, town loses.
-If we lynch the SK today, it frees up the roleblock to be used on scum; if the roleblock misses N4, we lose. If the roleblock hits, we at least have a chance, depending on what happens with the ties; if nothing else, we might be able to deny a win for both SK and scum.
There's really no choice here. Regardless of who we think is scum, we *must* vote to lynch the SK today - we have exactly zero chance of winning otherwise.