I am, and always have been against No-Lynch. The arguments are logical from a statistics standpoint, but this is a game of tells and reading between the lines. As such looking at just the statistics assumes that player skill is irrelevant, and that we will be picking randomly. This is not the case. This is also why I take little part in the early statistics discussion, because while important, it is more important to be able to have a play history for a person.
I have seen no-lynch votes on day one, and they all fail for one reason: they make day 2 a continuation of day one. If we do follow the cop, we might get lucky tonight and get a good result, but odds are against it, unless the cop is unusually alert. If we go for a no lynch today tomorrow we will most likely have one vanilla town dead, one confirmed town, and no suspects. And that assumes that the scum don't get lucky and hit the cop.
Voting patterns are the way to catch scum, and no-lynch lets them hide more easily.
That said, I've been breaking with my normal tradition of voting early and often. I will remedy that shortly, first, my list of suspects.
Town:
DaBigCheez
webby
In reply to one of webby's criticisms.
webby wrote:Doesn't like people claiming just because they're about to get lynched. Neutral, don't quite agree with the logic.
I would prefer, if we are going to have people claiming, then it should be sooner rather than later. Obviously they should claim if they are about to get lynched, but I'd rather not waste most of a day on a bandwagon that gets stopped just to try to find someone else. Slows things down and makes things confusing.
Did not particularly notice (either lurking or towing the line):
roband
markstonia
PhoenixEnigma
b.i.o
weiyaoli
Leaning scummy:
Lorenz
There were a few things. Firstly, many people are hiding behind the mask of statistics for day one discussion, which is fine, but there were a couple of things that seemed like subtle attempts to get people thinking about things in a way that would create more mud than I trust.
Lorenz wrote:Also, do you guys think it's possible that 1 villager is a miller without that being posted in the opening post? Just came to my mind because of the meta thread.
This complete misunderstanding of the open vanilla game-type seemed innocent at first.
Lorenz wrote:It does seem like a good idea. I can't figure out the cons/pros to this, but what about watcher following the tracker, and cop remaining hidden?
Seems to read "I agree with the current town idea of follow the cop, but what if we did it in a way that is completely useless?"
Does agree with me on the no lynch, but has very little justification for his vote other than the one short line that he posted in his initial assessment. I am of the opinion that votes should be more justified than that.
With that:
Vote: Lorenz