[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

[cjdrum]

Mafia + Werewolf
The town of Secretia has always been ridden with a Mafia of some kind.
One recent organisation, however, seems to have attracted a pair of unwanted canine guests...

Rules:

Spoiler:

1. You may only talk about this game in this thread and in an appropriately named spoiler in the Discussion Thread. If you are not playing this game, you may not post in this thread.
2. You may not play to lose. This will be dealt with at the mod's discretion (expect an immediate modkill if you play against your faction).
3. Do not lurk. If you no longer want to or can't play, ask the mod as soon as possible for a replacement. If there are no replacements, you must keep playing until a replacement arrives or the mod decides to modkill you.
4. You may not edit your posts.
5. You may not post your role PM, or quote verbatim from it. You may paraphrase.
6. Votes and questions must be posted in

bold, on a newline.

You may also ask questions to the mod in PM.
7. You may not post game content in this thread after you are dead. (You may post death flavor.) If you are lynched, you are dead when the hammer is cast. Else, you are dead when the mod says so.
8. You may not post game content at night. It is night when hammer is cast or when the aforementioned deadline is reached.
9. The mod's decisions are final.

Game Specifics:

Spoiler:

- Due to a shortage of signups in the alloted time, the setup has been modified to accomodate for 9 players. It now has:

• 2 Mafia Goons
• 2 Werewolves
• 1 Cop (investigates Mafia/not Mafia)
• 1 Seer (investigates Werewolf/not Werewolf)
• 1 Multi-Skilled Doctor (protects a player from a single kill each night)
• 2 Vanilla Town

- All days will last for 96 hours, weekends included. Nights will last for 48.

Role PMs:

Spoiler:

You, along with [____], are a Mafia goon.

Each night, you may converse with your partner via PM and kill a player of your choice.

You win either when you obtain a full majority of living players, or if you make up half of the living players with at least one Town player remaining.

You, along with [____] are a Werewolf.

Each night, you may converse with your partner via PM and kill a player of your choice.

You win either when you obtain a full majority of living players, or if you make up half of the living players with at least one Town player remaining.

You are the Cop.

Each night, you may PM me the name of any player, and you will be told whether they are part of the Mafia or not.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminated.

You are the Seer.

Each night, you may PM me the name of any player, and you will be told whether they are a Werewolf or not.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminated.

You are the Doctor.

Each night, you may PM me the name of any player. This player will be protected from a single night kill that night.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminated.

You are a Vanilla Townie.

You have no night actions. During the day you may use your voice and vote to eliminate any anti-town forces.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminate.

Living players:
1. roband
2. Misnomer (Werewolf game? Squeeeeeeeeeeeee)
3. existential_elevator
4. John Citizen (Hooray for complex open setups! Also, shouldn't it be 11?)
5. BoomFrog, who replaced Lorenz
6. webby
7. Ibarra (I call dibs on the Seer-Doctor role)
8. greenlover (only three vanilla roles? Squeeeeee)
9. a-wan

The No Longer Living:
0. cjdrum - Town Crier, shot and mauled Night 0
3. existential_elevator - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
2. Misnomer - Vanilla Townie, mauled Night 1
4. John Citizen - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
7. Ibarra - Doctor, shot Night 2
9. a-wan - Mafioso, lynched Day 3
6. webby - Cop, shot Night 3
1. roband - Mafioso, lynched Day 4

[cjdrum]

Roles out. Confirm in thread.

[John Citizen]

Confirm.

[Ibarra]

Confirm

[Lorenz]

Confirm

[webby]

Confirm!

[roband]

Confirming

[existential_elevator]

Confirm!

[greenlover]

Confirm.

[Misnomer]

Confirm

[a-wan]

Confirm

[roband]

and that's everyone!

[cjdrum]

Indeed it is.


Secretia had always been ridden with illegal organisations and hidden circles. Whenever one group left or was decimated, another seemed to form from their metaphorcial ashes. It was always the way, and always was going to be the way, and today couldn't possibly be any different.

Eariler this month, a group of miners were digging underneath Secretia. They went insane from the seclusion, and proceeded out of the mines to attack the nearest Town. Secretia's safety came with little effort, but at great cost: some of the Town's finest gunslingers and other specialists were taken down with the prospectors from below.

Nearly three weeks later, no more "incidents" had occured. The town was safe, but they lived in fear of safety. Danger and threats are the way things go in Secretia, and so a lack of balance sent the town into extreme panic and frenzy.

An hour before the dawn of the morning before the record of the longest time without attack, the villagers awoke to a horrible surprise. The body of the Town Crier lays where he usually stands, warning of any danger. His body is mutilated in a way that no person there has seen before, revealing several bullets inside his body. He had been shot, then torn apart as if by wild dogs.

cjdrum, Town Crier, mauled and shot Night 0

Suddenly, a low howl was heard in the distance. Whoever-- Whatever Secretia was dealing with this time, it was not familiar, and it had brought company.

It is now Day 1. Day 1 will end at most 96 hours from this post.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[existential_elevator]

...the mod is dead?

So, anyway, strategy talk, I guess. To get the ball rolling, I understand that the best bet for town is to hope that the two non-town factions focus on wiping eachother out rather than wiping town out. I'm not sure what ideal play would look like, but I guess we want one faction to be eliminated as soon as possible in order to reduce the number of nightkills. I doubt any early game cross-faction alliances are possible or advisable, but I guess that they are likely in endgame as we could wind up in a kingmaker situation.

Thoughts?

[roband]

Ok, I'll start by stating the obvious.
There's 5 town and 4 scum. Not great numbers, but we're gonna be aided by the fact that each scum faction is also on the look out for the other faction.
Regardless, we're going to have to hope that any nightkills hit the scum factions - otherwise the town numbers could deplete beyond a win very quickly.

Follow the cop/seer isn't a strategy - as there are 2 NKs and the doctor only protects against 1. So that's out, unless we can remove one of the factions completely. At that point, if the cop and doc are still alive, FTC is the best possible strategy, I guess.

The cop and seer each have a 1/4 chance of hitting their intended target (if we mislynch) - not bad odds, truth be told. Obviously if we lynch correctly, the odds for one of them will be 1/8 and the other will still be 1/4.

So actually, maybe we're not in that bad a position. The cop/seer roles could prove vital here. If you're about to be lynched and you ARE a cop/seer - claim, because there's always a chance that the scum factions might have someone else they want to target.
We'd rather lose 1 power role from a double NK with a doctor, than lynch a power role and see two deaths that night, right?

Anyway, hopefully that's a good start for everyone to get some discussion going

[a-wan]

You're right that the best play is to try to get scum to kill each other, but I don't see how to convince scum to kill each other.

This game seemed like it might be easier when there were two doctors, since cops could claim, doctors could stay hidden and scum would have a higher probability of killing each other off as they tried to kill the doctors, but that doesn't seem like as good of a strategy with only one doctor because we would likely lose a power role on the first night.

On the bright side, there's less incentive for scum to counter claim a power role, because that would make them a target of a NK from the other faction, so I guess there's a greater chance we can rely on someone's claim being truthful, though I may be wrong.

I suppose we can maybe force an alliance with one of the scum factions by having either the cop or the seer claim their role. They could be protected by the doctor and we would essentially be hunting down one of the scum factions (mafia if cop claims or werewolf if seer claims). If someone does counter claim, then maybe a worst-case scenario is that we lynch one and if we lynch wrong then the other faction will NK the other one since they would be scum.

I'm not saying having one and only one cop claim is the best option, but I'm throwing it out there as a possible strategy to get the ball rolling.

[roband]

Ah shit. We can't trust non-scum cop/seer results.

I mean, just because someone "is not a werewolf", they're not cleared.. Crap.

[a-wan]

EBWOP

ninja'd

The worst case scenario is if we somehow are about to lynch the doctor on the first day, but you're right, roband, that it would probably be a double NK on the doctor, so there would at least not be two NKs.

[greenlover]

Well, the mod being killed N0 means we can't lynch him today. Shoot.

Anyway, here are my first thoughts on the setup:
- From what I can tell, even if the town lynches perfectly, we will lose unless one of the NK's hit the mafia at least once. I hate it when this happens, because that means that we are relying upon one of the mafia's misfiring (or firing correctly?). However, statistically speaking, starting from night one, we have 2 kills that each have a 2/7 chance of hitting mafia (assuming that the mafia's kill is random), and for each continuing night, the odds just get better. Additionally, if the mafia's play is really bad, we could win by D3 even if we mislynch D1 and D2.
- The cops power has been significantly downgraded, as now being copped doesn't clear you completely. However, since we have two cops, it makes it better deal for town that normal for that cop to claim if he finds any mafia, since we will would still have a cop role out there if that cop is killed/lynched.
- Another thing that is different than the norm is that leading a lynch on a mafia player doesn't clear one as town, since both mafia's are going to want to lynch the other mafia during the daytime, since that will give them towny cred. I think that most of the other tells should still work as normal, though.

[roband]

Potential tactic - we have a primary vote for a lynch, and a secondary vote for a 'cop/seer' target.

That night, both the cop and the seer target the person we have voted on. If they are scum, we get a definite result - and the role who outs them should claim it - I think. I'm not smart enough to run the numbers, but with a game of this size, I would think that one scum dead would be good for one town player down.

In fact, IT WOULD!

Situation: cop and seer both target player A. Player A is a werewolf. Obviously the seer will get a scum result. The seer can then claim this - WITHOUT FEAR OF BEING NK'D. This is because the doctor can doctor them - and the mafia aren't going to want to kill the seer, are they?
They want the seer around, to out the other werewolf if possible.

So if we use that tactic, and claim if we get a result, we can win this. Maybe even fairly quickly, if we choose good targets...

Does someone want to check my logic please?

[a-wan]

One minor technical detail with that plan is that you can't vote for lynch first since night starts as soon as we hammer. I'm not sure that it throws the strategy off too much to vote for who we should cop first, though.

The one thing that worries me, though, is that maybe we're wasting a chance to find two scum in one night. If we have both the cop and the seer find scum in one night, then we lynch one and let the other faction kill the other, since it seems like it's in scum's best interest to kill off the other faction quickly, too. Or am I wrong?

[roband]

One minor technical detail with that plan is that you can't vote for lynch first since night starts as soon as we hammer. I'm not sure that it throws the strategy off too much to vote for who we should cop first, though.

The one thing that worries me, though, is that maybe we're wasting a chance to find two scum in one night. If we have both the cop and the seer find scum in one night, then we lynch one and let the other faction kill the other, since it seems like it's in scum's best interest to kill off the other faction quickly, too. Or am I wrong?

yeah, that did cross my mind. There's probably maths to prove which way be more effective, but I won't be able to do that.
Sorry. 1/4 and 1/8 is as good as I can manage

[roband]

I'm going to bed now, but if someone could run the numbers from my ideas, that'd be great.

[Lorenz]

@a-wan.
I don't think scum would try to kill the other faction quickly, unless they are the last one of the faction.
example: 2 wolves, 2 mafia.
If we find 1 wolf and 1 mafia, and lynch the wolf, then the other wolf has no use in killing the mafia. Leaving them alive only ensure that town will lynch the mafia (since they are confirmed) and keeps the wolf safe, while they kill another town (or the other unconfirmed mafia).

Roband's strategy is looking good. Only thing that jumps to my mind is that player A would counterclaim as being the seer. Will work out how this affects things later.

Ninja-d. I can probably run the numbers at night.

[Misnomer]

First things first, I wuld like to express my bitter dissapointment that I am not a werewolf. That would have been awesome.
nb: I am also not a mafioso, but I'm less dissapointed about that.

Anyways, on the face of it the numbers are horrifying. Even if we get lucky and take down a baddie early, we're still going to get butchered early-game. However, pretty quickly the wolves and the scum will have to turn on each other, as neither can afford a situation in which the other faction can block the lynch, or in which town is so weakened that it becomes a kingmaker faction, incapable of winning by itself but capable of swinging the game. So that means both factions, if they have any sense, should be actively helping us with the scumhunting.

Now, as for immediate strategy... I think two-targeting has it merits. We'll either catch an anti-townie, or we'll get a solid gold confirmed townie who the doctor can then subsequently protect (indeed - it might be an idea to have the doctor protect them too, so we know they'll be around in the morning). Obviously, the cop and the seer shouldn't declare townie results - we can assume from their silence that that they recieved them.

But yes, assuming we're going with that plan, I would like to
Nominate: Lorenz
for the investigation process. Because, why not?

[greenlover]

Eh, I see a couple of problems with that strategy, roband. First, it either gives the mafia or the werewolf's (sometimes both) some strong incentive to kill off whoever we pick for the cop target (if they know that the target isn't them, it would be in their interest to kill that target off to prevent the possibility of a confirmed towny.). Second, it establishes the mafia's as being a really powerful force in deciding who is copped (they have 4 out of the 9 votes deciding who is copped, which - even though they are opposing each other - is pretty darn significant.).

However, you're right insofar as this is probably better than just having the cops cop randomly, and if we only could work out how to negate the mafias's influence, it would certainly be better than the status quo.

[Lorenz]

I'm probably not doing the math... sorry roband. Maybe tomorrow, I'm actually not sure if I can do it in a way that's not very annoying, so I'm kind of not in the mood to do it.
I don't mind being investigated, but I think it will be a better idea for only one investigator to go for the person we propose every night, and the other one to choose freely.
For example.
Night 1: Seer should investigate nominated person, cop has free choice.
Night 2: Cop should investigate nominated person, seer has free choice. If cop already investigated nominated person, then they have free choice. The nominated person could be the first from night 1, but it's probably not a good idea.

If we keep going like this, I think our chances of finding scum are much better, and we will have more half-confirmed towns fast, making later parts of the game much easier for us. Seer and Cop would know of confirmed towns if they decide to investigate someone who has been said in consensus to be investigated, and can claim if we're lynching town (Or when they find scum, of course).

With this strategy, we have the same chance at finding 1 scum night 1 is the same as if both investigate the same person, but we don't waste a second power on them if they were in fact scum.

Actually, why not propose 2 persons to be investigated? We tell seer to investigate X and cop to investigate Y. Then flip it the following night, or only confirm one of them, or choose 2 new persons. This way we are getting much more information every night. Whenever one of them claims, the doctor can keep protecting them. If any of the half/towns is night-killed, we didn't waste an extra power to protect them. How does that sound?
And also...
Nominate Misnomer
Because he started it.
Ninja-d
I hope my strategy works to cover a few of the holes, as greenlover pointed out.

[webby]

Hmm, I think people are underestimating the probability of the cops being killed. If we mislynch day 1 (but not mislynching a cop), each cop has 1/6 chance of being hit by each faction, so 1 - 25/36 = 11/36 chance of being nightkilled. So the chances of losing at least one of the cops on night 1, assuming no doctor protection, is about 52%. It's extremely unlikely both cops will survive to day 3. I think the cops just have to investigate whoever they want, hope they survive the night, and maybe claim on day 2 depending on the situation.

I think there are too many nightkills and the game is too short for cop strategies to be much use.

[existential_elevator]

Potential tactic - we have a primary vote for a lynch, and a secondary vote for a 'cop/seer' target.

I was actually just thinking something similar to this. It makes sense to be able to co-ordinate the cop/seer, as no one of them is going to clear someone as town. I was going to suggest that they try to co-ordinate on whoever has the next highest number of votes at the lynch? So long as they don't reveal their identities, they're safe. So long as the doctor is alive, they're safe if they need to claim. It's a pity we didn't get the full number of players, because having both doctors would have made it a whole lot easier for seer and cop to claim.

Hmm, I think people are underestimating the probability of the cops being killed. If we mislynch day 1 (but not mislynching a cop), each cop has 1/6 chance of being hit by each faction, so 1 - 25/36 = 11/36 chance of being nightkilled. So the chances of losing at least one of the cops on night 1, assuming no doctor protection, is about 52%. It's extremely unlikely both cops will survive to day 3. I think the cops just have to investigate whoever they want, hope they survive the night, and maybe claim on day 2 depending on the situation.

I think there are too many nightkills and the game is too short for cop strategies to be much use.

Yeah, I was also thinking about this. More of the town is a power role than it is vanilla.

[Ibarra]

Lots of posts to catch up on.

I'm all up with the secondary investigative votes. Not only will it allow town to direct the investigation, but it will also serve as a secondary vote analysis. Scum wouldn't want their partner to be investigated after all. Perhaps separate votals for seer and cop?

Also if we are going to do the secondary vote thing, do you guys think it's a better strategy to vote for the same person when it comes to investigation?

[roband]

Eh, I see a couple of problems with that strategy, roband.

Good. I've been told before that I'm a 'stream of conscience' player I need people to tell me what I've overlooked in my excitement.

Your points are good ones, too.

Lorenz, I think proposing 2 people to be investigated is a BAD idea. We should either take control of the whole situation, or none of it. If we're not dictating who for both investigations to be targetted on, the cop and seer should do their own thing.

e_e look to be attaching herself to people, FOS for that.

Perhaps separate votals for seer and cop?

Also if we are going to do the secondary vote thing, do you guys think it's a better strategy to vote for the same person when it comes to investigation?

No, I really don't think seperate ones are a good idea. At all.

[a-wan]

I definitely think two-night strategies should be ruled out (i.e. cops both investigate two people over two nights or anything of that kind). It gives scum too much leeway to manipulate the system. If both people being investigated were not scum, there's no reason why they'd kill those people because it would mean two nights when they would not be investigated themselves.

Also, I think the only reason why having the secondary vote is a good idea is because it gives us a second vote that we can analyze. Other than that, because of all the scum in this game, it seems to give them too much power.

We've been focusing a lot on cops, but I think we need to have a strategy that makes good use of the doctor. Right now, the strategies we've proposed have the doctor trying to randomly save someone. Since we'll only have eight people, the doctor only has about a 2/7 chance of doing anything useful. If we are going to do vote on who to cop, I guess we could at least make sure that the person who is copped is alive the next day by saying the doctor should protect that person (as had been suggested).

Also, as webby pointed out, there are too many NKs to expect all the cops to be around for long.

I'm still inclined, therefore, to think that a useful strategy would be for one cop to claim for the following reasons:

1. Voting on who to cop gives scum too much control.
2. It makes good use of the doctor role from day one.
3. It guarantees that at least one cop makes it through the first night.
4. It makes it so we can focus on eliminating one faction quicker. The sooner we kill off one faction, the sooner we eliminate a NK, which means more town stays alive longer. Remember because there are only nine of us, there's a very good chance that only three people will be alive by day 3.

[existential_elevator]

Multi-Skilled Doctor Role PM wrote:
You are the Doctor.

Each night, you may PM me the name of any player. This player will be protected from a single night kill that night.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminated.

Just a point here: claiming cop is bad. If both factions decided to hit the murder button, the cop will die even if the doctor protects them.

[roband]

If we are going to do vote on who to cop, I guess we could at least make sure that the person who is copped is alive the next day by saying the doctor should protect that person (as had been suggested).

No way. That makes it too easy for the scum. It's 2 guaranteed NKs. We don't want that. We should leave it up to the doctor. Maybe they will protect the person being investigated, maybe they won't. Don't make it definitive.

1. Voting on who to cop gives scum too much control.
2. It makes good use of the doctor role from day one.
3. It guarantees that at least one cop makes it through the first night.
4. It makes it so we can focus on eliminating one faction quicker. The sooner we kill off one faction, the sooner we eliminate a NK, which means more town stays alive longer. Remember because there are only nine of us, there's a very good chance that only three people will be alive by day 3.

1. I can see your point.
2. I've disagreed with this already
3. No it doesn't. 1 doctor + 2 scum kills = dead cop
4. Yeah, removing one faction first is the ideal solution, but that's going to be very tough. We can't rely on it at all.

So, in short. I think we should suggest who gets copped, by both roles. The doctor can then flip and coin and decided whether to protect that person or not.
I think it's the best approach.

ninja'd by e_e saying the same thing as I just did

[roband]

Ok, my attempt at maths. This is likelihood of hitting scum, based on cop/seer targetting the same, agreed, target compared to targetting individual target.
I will assume a mislynch in this maths, to keep it simpler, for now.

Same: Cop has a 2/8 chance of hitting their scum, Seer has a 2/8 chance of hitting their scum. Which gives us a 50% chance of finding a guaranteed scum. (that should have been obvious, what with 4 of the 8 players being scum, if we mislynch - d'oh). But it also gives us a 50% chance of finding guaranteed town.

Different: Cop has a 2/8 chance of hitting their scum, Seer has a 2/8 chance of hitting their scum. Whilst this gives us a 50% chance of finding scum, it only gives each role a 25% chance of finding guaranteed town.

Therefore, they have to target the same person, right? Guaranteed town is almost as important as guaranteed scum. Especially for late on in the game.

[webby]

I'm not convinced on point 4. I'm ready to be persuaded otherwise, but I think we'd be in a better position if there was one scum from each faction left rather than two of one and none of the other. This is hard to get my head around, but I think an obvious example is when there are 5 players left. 3-2-0 is definite LYLO, while 3-1-1 is not (while obviously successful lynches leave us in the same position in both cases). I'm not sure on the six player case, that's a tricky one to work out, and it's late.

I think the fact is that it takes two lynches to lynch two scum whether they're on the same faction or not, but we also have the additional possibility of scum being nightkilled, thus saving us a lynch. This makes up for the fact that there's an extra nightkill, because a single town death doesn't hurt town as much as a single scum kill hurts scum.

I'm not sure if that made sense, maybe someone else can express it better, but basically I have the feeling that we actually do better not to focus on one scum faction.

[webby]

Therefore, they have to target the same person, right? Guaranteed town is almost as important as guaranteed scum. Especially for late on in the game.

This assumes that it's always better for scum to target the other scum faction over town. Otherwise, confirmed town can be quite bad, because it gives scum a good kill target.

But that does raise a good point that having half-confirmed townies is actually very bad for us. We don't know they're town, but one scum faction does.

[a-wan]

Multi-Skilled Doctor Role PM wrote:
You are the Doctor.

Each night, you may PM me the name of any player. This player will be protected from a single night kill that night.

You win when all Mafia and Werewolves have been eliminated.

Just a point here: claiming cop is bad. If both factions decided to hit the murder button, the cop will die even if the doctor protects them.

It's true that they could both kill the cop, but there's no reason for mafia to kill seer or for werewolves to kill cop. They each want the opposing cop alive so that they can identify the opposing faction. If seer finds a werewolf, for example, there's less pressure on mafia.

Both cops claiming would be bad. Only one cop claiming means that cop would almost certainly be alive the next day.

[a-wan]

EBWOP

Also, as far as the math goes.

COPS TARGET SAME PLAYER

If we lynch scum: There would be 3 scum out of 8 players so 3/8 probability of confirming scum (about 38%)
If we lynch town: There would be 4 scum out of 8 players so 1/2 probability of confirming scum (50%)

COPS TARGET INDEPENDENTLY

If we lynch scum: One cop has 3/4 probability of getting a negative result and the other has 7/8 probability
- Probability of no scum: 3*7/(4*8) = 21/32 or approximately 66%
- Probability of only 1 scum = 5/16 or about 31%
- Probability of 2 scum: 1/32 or about 3%

If we lynch town:
- Probability of no scum: 9/16 or about 56%
- Probability of only 1 scum = 3/8 or about 38%
- Probability of 2 scum = 1/16 or about 6%

COPS TARGET DIFFERENT INDIVIDUALS

If we lynch scum:
- Probability of no scum: 37/56 or about 66%
- Probability of 1 scum: 17/56 or about 30%
- Probability of 2 scum: 2/56 or about 4%

If we lynch town:
- Probability of no scum: 4/7 or about 57%
- Probability of 1 scum: 5/14 or about 36%
- Probability of 2 scum: 1/14 or about 7%

[roband]

Remember, that we probably won't find out the role of the lynched player until the morning.