The Resistance 3.5 (0-3, Spies) - SPIES WIN

[roband]

I've about had enough of this tbh.

I was suspected in the last game, because a scummy more_people implicated me and it was a 50/50 tossup.

I was suspected this game, because I was camping when the game (which I didn't even know was being created when I left to go camping) started unexpectedly. Since then, I have performed as directed by the majority and been mocked along the way.

I don't really care anymore

[mpolo]

I'm not going to be around all day tomorrow, but will be back on Wednesday. We have to be careful about "too many rejected missions", but at the same time get the plot powers into the right hands. I am not 100% sure on Adam, but at the last time that I took stock, I was tending to trust him. If enough people don't trust him, though, we can't push through to him.

[Adam H]

I've about had enough of this tbh.

You made me laugh so hard. This game is so personal... For the record, I don't think you are incompetent, regardless of your role. At worst, you just have better things in your life to think about...

Misnomer, I think the best thing for me to do is to convince you that I am resistance. It seems that you are hung up on my "wine" with webby. Here's what I said:

I think best play is to get open up to be used on two towny people who have been opposing each other. I think in order to win, we will need to make potentially flawed assuptions and hope for the best. Suppose I used open up on webby, and webby confirmed I was town. I can't imagine you would assume we are both spies, cause we've been sniping unnecessarily at each other for much of the game. Plus, webby (somewhat randomly) said I was less scummy than vector. That's not something one spy would say about another... So hopefully we'll get some small confirmation that they are both town. I realize that a confirmed town isn't really a confirmed town... but still.

First of all, I had no idea if webby was spy, so I didn't really care if anyone thought we were connected. Second, the reactions to it could be potentially useful - Webby tried to downplay it, and you jumped on it. But mainly, at the time, we were considering trying to get a spy/resistance pair by giving the plot power to cjdrum. I don't think that would have been useful, so I was trying to get you to see the other side of it. I don't know that it worked, but we did end up getting a claimed town on mpolo. Unfortunately webby went from least scummy to most scummy so it doesn't help as much as it could have. Basically, I'm satisfied with the results of typing out that winey paragraph, except for your suspicion.

And yes, I'm not used to playing this game in a forum, where people can directly quote me and it's harder to defend yourself. So perhaps it was a dumb thing to say.

If you trust me, we have an excellent chance of winning. If not, we'll HAVE to push through a craptastic cjdrum mission team or even pass lorenz's proposal and let cjdrum get the plot powers. I cannot stress how bad it would be if a spy got to hand out the strong leaders.

[jayhsu]

Oops, this is correct.

Players holding Plot Powers:

Adam H: 1
Roband: 1 (Opinion Maker)

Players still auto-reject on the final mission.

[Adam H]

Oh and I also found this from a while back for which I'd like to provide a rebuttal.

His instructions for teams in his absense worry me, especially given his intention to reject any team he isn't on personally and to withhold using eye altogether if certain people aren't on the team.

At the point that I submitted the instructions to jay, we were on the first proposal, and I wanted to ensure that I had some input with the way the teams were set up. If we had rejected a few mission proposals, I basically made sure that I would be included on the team (therefore increasing the towniness), because you couldn't afford for me to be the lone town rejection on top of the spies. I also thought that it might taunt the spies into rejecting the 4th or even 5th mission - I would have been back without them knowing, so I could accept the mission and catch 4 rejection votes when it made no sense for them to reject. Either I'm on the team or maybe we catch the spies. It was a long shot, but it seemed worth it.

Same with KaEoY. I forget who I was going to use it on, but if you didn't put those people on the team, you would know that I wasn't going to use KaEoY. Therefore you would have a damn good reason to leave them on the team and we are probably better off saving KaEoY for a better mission. Or a least, that was my logic.

Since there is never a reason to reject the 5th proposal... Can all the towns please shoot jay a pm and tell him to count your vote as accept if you miss the deadline on the 5th consecutive proposal? Are you OK with that Jay?

[webby]

Well that's lucky - roband is now cleared as resistance to me (because I know Boomfrog is a spy).

So obviously I know that me, roband, mpolo would pass a mission, but unfortunately I doubt that's going to be a popular team. So I know that there are three spies out of Misnomer, GoP, Lorenz, Adam H, VectorZero and cjdrum. If I trusted Adam H, that means three spies out of cjdrum, VectorZero, GoP, Lorenz. I'm going to lean towards rejecting teams with the last four players in them.

Hopefully even if you're not going to put me on any missions (barring an establish confidence or similar which demonstrates my innocence), I can still help by accepting and rejecting the right teams.

[jayhsu]

I suppose it does make more sense for players to auto-accept the 5th rejected team. So we'll do that for now. I'll edit the rules tomorrow.

[Lorenz]

Silly me... It would be really dumb to propose a team with adam in it... if we trust adam we might as well let it ride till he's the leader.
I'm proposing mpolo/misnomer/lorenz, and will probably reject it. I do want to give us a chance of accepting the team, and although I understand there's nothing on me to define an alignment, I have to get myself in there, because i'm the only person I can absolutely trust. I'm rejecting anyway unless someone convinces me otherwise, because adam seems solid, and I don't want cjdrum with powers.

I know my logic is from my perspective, but this would be the last mission with a single mistake, so I'm not going to guess wether BF is really town. Putting my hunches aside, that's the best team I can come up with. If you don't like it, I'm perfectly fine with jumping to adam. If you rather trust me than adam, then at least we have a good chance of winning this mission.

Any reasons for me not to do this?

[Gopher of Pern]

I still don't quite understand exactly why we want Adam to propose the team. Yes, if he proposes, Misnomer gets to distribute the powers. But does that really help us? The only power that can really confirm town now is Establish Confidence, which can only confirm town if the leader is the one who is suspicious. So, if Misnomer hands it out, we find out that misnomer is town or spy. Which is going to be kinda redundant, if either Adam or Misnomer are on the team. Thats why I would have preferred Lorenz to get the powers, so we could confirm them.

The plot powers we have left are :
Strong Leader x2
Opinion Maker
Keeping A Close Eye On You
In The Spotlight
Establish Confidence

KaCeOy and Spotlight are useless. Strong Leader we do want to keep out of spy hands, but as long as we hand them out to confirmed town, they won't do us any harm. Opinion Maker is of minimum use, but it would be of some use on someone who is a bit on the iffy side. Establish confidence is the only power which can out a spy or confirm town. But it needs to be given out by a mission leader who we aren't sure of. If Misnomer gets it, we'll lose the last decent power we have.

[VectorZero]

Certainly happier with roband now. Will need to think about implications, however. If misnomer is truly resistance, that leaves (from my perspective) two of webby/bf/mpolo. Troublesome. If mpolo is scum, both webby and GOP are also.

For the record, I'd prefer myself, misnomer, and mpolo/BF. I'm not sure that there's much of a difference between mpolo and BF, but there's a sort of decent chance that either mpolo and BF is spy, I think.

Do you mean 'neither mpolo and BF is spy'?

[Lorenz]

....Establish Confidence, which can only confirm town if the leader is the one who is suspicious...

Oh.. it's for immediate use. I didn't realize that. I say then that we reject until roband is leader, and depending on his team proposal we accept or we skip over to adam.

[Adam H]

Thats why I would have preferred Lorenz to get the powers, so we could confirm them.

Freaking Roband throwing his NC card at the worst possible time! I think it's safe to say that Roband is both the schlemiel and schlemazel in this game.

For the record, I'd prefer myself, misnomer, and mpolo/BF. I'm not sure that there's much of a difference between mpolo and BF, but there's a sort of decent chance that either mpolo and BF is spy, I think.

Do you mean 'neither mpolo and BF is spy'?

No, I meant either. By "decent chance" I mean that right now I'd put it at maybe 30% that one of them is a spy. Something like 13% BF, 13% mpolo, and 4% both. I just don't want them both on the team. I'm actually a lot more suspicious of BF now because of how he proposed the last mission team. Not because I didn't like the mission team, but because from his perspective I would have thought he would have really wanted it to be accepted. Maybe he doesn't actually trust me, but from my perspective he really should have wanted to go on that mission. How would you feel about webby on the next team? I might be leaning that way.

Establish confidence is the only power which can out a spy or confirm town. But it needs to be given out by a mission leader who we aren't sure of. If Misnomer gets it, we'll lose the last decent power we have.

So what do you want to do? Accept Lorenz's team? I don't think it's worth the risk. It's unfortunate that we have 2 powers that we do not want spies to have and 1 power that we do. I say we wait and see what cj and roband propose before making a decision. There's a 50% chance that we won't get the EC this round anyways. Cjdrum handing out the strong leaders is going to mess with our heads a freaking ton.

...
Any reasons for me not to do this?

Hold off until we can talk a bit more about it - Misnomer might be right that we should give cj the plot powers. Since I know that misnomer isn't pushing a spy agenda, I'm inclined to at least listen... The deadline isn't for another 2 days anyways.

Oh, and I'm not sure if anyone has thought of this, but if roband is a spy, lorenz is 99% town. This is because {roband, lorenz, cjdrum} cannot all by spies, and roband would have taken the NC from the town rather than the spy. No one had given him any input into which person to take it from. Unless it was very subtle wine by the insanely sneaky spy roband...

[Misnomer]

@Adam H: Sorry, none of this is personal - but the problem is, if you were a spy, you'd still be saying the exact same things now to try and convince me of your towniness.

[Adam H]

@Adam H: Sorry, none of this is personal - but the problem is, if you were a spy, you'd still be saying the exact same things now to try and convince me of your towniness.

Wrong. Consider: no one else is... the spies don't have to be desperate right now. I do.

Sigh... And now I wait for the "EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE WIIIIIIIINE!!!!!!!!!!!"

[Lorenz]

Another thing to consider is that if both mpolo and misnomer are town, then VZ is 99.9% scum (only if BF and webby are both scum, then VZ could be town in this scenario). If VZ is scum, GoP is very close to resistance as it gets, unless you think there were 3 spies on mission 1.
So if mpolo and misnomer go on a mission, we might as well send GoP.

I just went through all of misnomers/GoP/mpolos/VZ's posts, and I can't really find many scumtells. The only obvious one is from GoP not wanting to recieve the open up, and there's also VZ giving powers to BF and webby. Other than that, they all seem to have posted in a similar amount and not to much content at first, and much more content as time went by. GoP and mpolo picked it up notably for this mission, and misnomer on a smaller scale.

So these are the teams so far that seem good for me from an outside perspective.
Misnomer/GoP/Mpolo (Misnomer and Mpolo have claims on being town, GoP follows).
Adam/Misnomer/BF (they are all likely town if roband is scum)
webby/roband/misnomer (They are town if webby is town)
VZ/misnomer/BF (If mpolo is scum, webby and GoP are scum. This means BF is town from webby beeing scum.VZ is town from GoP being scum(if you believe 2 spies on first Mission), misnomer is town from mpolo being scum (If you believe 2 spies in second Mission))...Wow, I thought this one made more sense but it's all convoluted. I'm not erasing it because I already typed it.

Those are the best teams I can come up with, from the least assumptions.


Anyway, the risk of having 2 strong leaders on scums hands are way too high. I think our best choice is to reject until roband is leader. Depending on the team we reject/accept and then either adam or misnomer will get powers. If adam gets establish confidence, great. If not, then I was willing to accept him as resistance anyway. If misnomer gets EC, then not so great, but I'm willing to take the chance. If misnomer doesn't get EC we're in a very good shape.
Thoughts?

[webby]

I just realised we had a sign of life from cjdrum - he accepted the last mission proposal.

I'm trying to work out how bad two strong leaders would be in scum's hands. It's a loss with five consecutive rejections. From my perspective, we lose if Boomfrog, Lorenz and cjdrum are scum (cjdrum gives one strong leader to Boomfrog, one to the spy not in those three). That's not worth the risk, so I think I'll reject this at least one more time - I might accept cjdrum's team given roband is confirmed resistance to me.

[VectorZero]

Given we need three townies and cannot afford any more losses, I don't think we can put either webby or BF on mission 1. At least one of them is scum.

[Lorenz]

I just realised we had a sign of life from cjdrum - he accepted the last mission proposal.

I'm trying to work out how bad two strong leaders would be in scum's hands. It's a loss with five consecutive rejections. From my perspective, we lose if Boomfrog, Lorenz and cjdrum are scum (cjdrum gives one strong leader to Boomfrog, one to the spy not in those three). That's not worth the risk, so I think I'll reject this at least one more time - I might accept cjdrum's team given roband is confirmed resistance to me.

Yeah, I noticed as well. It looks like mod is looking for a replacement anyhow. I don´t know what to make of your statement, from your perspective we lose if my team is accepted and I'm scum and Bf and cjdrum? From anybodies perspective we lose if I'm scum and my team is accepted. I feel like I'm missing you point. Explain?

Given we need three townies and cannot afford any more losses, I don't think we can put either webby or BF on mission 1. At least one of them is scum.

So pretty much you're rejecting the 4 teams I proposed in my previous post right?

[webby]

Yeah, I noticed as well. It looks like mod is looking for a replacement anyhow. I don´t know what to make of your statement, from your perspective we lose if my team is accepted and I'm scum and Bf and cjdrum? From anybodies perspective we lose if I'm scum and my team is accepted. I feel like I'm missing you point. Explain?

That depends what team you propose - once we reach someone being leader that we're going to accept, I think we should all decide rather than the team leader deciding by themselves. In that case, you might be compelled to propose a certain team, because if you didn't, we'd reject it and assume you were a spy. I know Boomfrog is a spy and I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility that you and cjdrum are too. (But regardless, that was just an example of why two strong leaders distributed by a spy could be dangerous, it was by no means the only such team.)

[Lorenz]

Ok, makes more sense. I was especially confused by the "from my perspective" because it didn't really seem to require taking anybodies perspective, and as you say, it's only an example of a much more general case.

[mpolo]

I'm back. I have to admit that the strategy involved in rejecting teams that we like to get the plot powers into the right hands is giving me headaches. Which is not to say that it's not the right thing to to -- it's pretty clear that we have to keep certain powers out of scum's hands, but it's giving me headaches trying to figure out what the best thing to do is. I will try to reason this out:

We just had BoomFrog propose and fail due to (planned) no confidence.
We're waiting for a proposal from Lorenz.
We don't want cjdrum to get powers, so we have to reject his team.
Both cjdrum and roband are pretty untrusted, so we don't want to accept cjdrum's team (getting powers to roband).
So roband is going to make the fourth proposal. It is possible that he would suggest something acceptable, especially if under pressure, but he might pull a scummy team to force the fourth rejection, in which case Adam would have to propose a universally acceptable team and Misnomer would get powers.

Is that about right? We need to reject on Lorenz and cjdrum, and then see if we can accept roband's team?

[roband]

I'm back. I have to admit that the strategy involved in rejecting teams that we like to get the plot powers into the right hands is giving me headaches.

Yeah, me too.

Is that about right? We need to reject on Lorenz and cjdrum, and then see if we can accept roband's team?

That's what I think everyone is saying. Tbh, I'll see what everyone suggests and then decide, I want to make sure we get it right.

[Lorenz]

I'm back. I have to admit that the strategy involved in rejecting teams that we like to get the plot powers into the right hands is giving me headaches. Which is not to say that it's not the right thing to to -- it's pretty clear that we have to keep certain powers out of scum's hands, but it's giving me headaches trying to figure out what the best thing to do is. I will try to reason this out:

We just had BoomFrog propose and fail due to (planned) no confidence.
We're waiting for a proposal from Lorenz.
We don't want cjdrum to get powers, so we have to reject his team.
Both cjdrum and roband are pretty untrusted, so we don't want to accept cjdrum's team (getting powers to roband).
So roband is going to make the fourth proposal. It is possible that he would suggest something acceptable, especially if under pressure, but he might pull a scummy team to force the fourth rejection, in which case Adam would have to propose a universally acceptable team and Misnomer would get powers.

Is that about right? We need to reject on Lorenz and cjdrum, and then see if we can accept roband's team?

Accepting cjdrum's team could prove valuable if roband gets the NC. But it's really risky.

I'm proposing a team in 12 hours at most.

[Adam H]

If VZ is scum, GoP is very close to resistance as it gets, unless you think there were 3 spies on mission 1.
So if mpolo and misnomer go on a mission, we might as well send GoP.

There's no reason to guess how many spies were on the first mission. If there were 2 spies on mission 1 + an unknown GoP, GoP has as much chance to be spy as anyone, I believe. FINE I'll try and do the math... we selected the team at random: 90 combos with 2 spies, 25 combos with 3/4 spies. That's 22% chance of 3 spies, given that there are at least 2 spies. Since there's 2 spies out of the entire 8 non-spy people, that's 25% chance for everyone else. I think. So it's 22% vs. 25%, assuming I did that right (which isn't a safe assumption...). But surely it's close.

I'm trying to work out how bad two strong leaders would be in scum's hands. It's a loss with five consecutive rejections. From my perspective, we lose if Boomfrog, Lorenz and cjdrum are scum (cjdrum gives one strong leader to Boomfrog, one to the spy not in those three). That's not worth the risk, so I think I'll reject this at least one more time - I might accept cjdrum's team given roband is confirmed resistance to me.

Your scenario is possible. It's more likely that there are 2 spies next each other, and if the first spy gets both SL's they can reject 4 times in a row. Then we'll have to accept the first mission proposal for each of the last 2 missions, and hope that both those leaders are town. Hopefully the spies will not want to out themselves, but there's a chance that they can get away with it. For instance, if the spies are VZ, webby, cj, and roband, cj would give both strong leaders to VZ, then roband can propose a spy filled mission, and we lose.

Personally, I really think the above scenario is quite possible and we can't let that happen. I've thought those four are the spies for a while now and everything continues to point towards it.

Another thing that could happen (especially after I've said this) is that cjdrum could give them both to a town to try and frame them. Ugh, there's too many craptastic things that cj could do, especially since he's all but outed.

[roband]

Adam, why are you giving the scum ideas..?

Seriously, cj has barely taken part in this game, he could be scum who doesn't know how to take control of the game.

If that's the case, you've probably just handed it to him on a plate... Wow.

[Adam H]

Can you tell that I really want to reject this proposal? Now that I've "handed it to him on a plate", we need to actively avoid that scenario by not giving cj the plot powers. I was not in the mood to give him them and have to hope he is as inactive and/or uncreative as he seems.

[BoomFrog]

Sent to the Mod:

I'll approve any team for M1 that includes only Me, Mpolo, AdamH, and Misnomer.

I'll approve any team proposed by AdamH.

Posting without reading anything. Mpolo is automatically more trustworthy then GoP. I think we must trust AdamH, therefore the two reasonable teams are:

AdamH, Misnomer, (Me or Mpolo)

[Misnomer]

Ok, so now it's been revealed that cjdrum could screw over the game if he got powers, we need to reject Lorenz's team - would it be better if we NC it?

Can anyone see any major flaws with this plan?
- Lorenz proposes that myself, mpolo and boomfrog go on the team.
- Everyone votes to accept.
- Adam H used his no confidence on it.
- cjdrum proposes a team - we accept if it's good, reject it if its apalling.
-- if rejected, repeat with Roband
--- if rejected, approve Adam

Of course, we hit the same problem that we're screwed if cjdrum, roband and Adam are all spies, but if that's the case I think we're screwed regardless.

[Adam H]

Of course, we hit the same problem that we're screwed if cjdrum, roband and Adam are all spies

We can't all be spies since I'm not a spy. But seriously, we can't all be spies since there are 2 spies from the last mission team, which did not include cjdrum, roband, and myself. And lorenz and you, for that matter.

I'd prefer to plan on rejecting as many as you guys can stomach. That way if ANY of the proposals are accepted unexpectantly, I can NC it (and we can grill the accepters).

If we accept a team, we're completely trusting all three of the members of the team. It is a suboptimal choice to put me on the mission team rather than letting me be the fifth leader, because only good things can come from rejecting as many missions as possible. If you're going to trust me completely, you should trust me completely as the leader. And while it's likely that mpolo, misnomer, and BF are all resistance, I'm not willing to bet the game on it. I think it's more rational for everyone to bet the game on just me, rather than on mpolo AND misnomer AND BF.

And if you're accepting a team, expecting me to NC, you are trusting completely all the members of the team, AND me. So I'm not sure that is rational behavior by the accepters.


Oooooo I just had an unrelated thought - what if cjdrum sent a pm to jay a while ago preaccepting any mission with a spy on it. Seems like there's a good chance that last vote was a contigency vote rather than an active one... Or I guess he got mod-prodded, and voted at the same time he told jay he didn't want to play anymore. eh.

[Misnomer]

Of course, we hit the same problem that we're screwed if cjdrum, roband and Adam are all spies

We can't all be spies since I'm not a spy. But seriously, we can't all be spies since there are 2 spies from the last mission team, which did not include cjdrum, roband, and myself. And lorenz and you, for that matter.

Actually I was on the last misson, but your point stands.

If you're going to trust me completely, you should trust me completely as the leader.

If.

And if you're accepting a team, expecting me to NC, you are trusting completely all the members of the team, AND me. So I'm not sure that is rational behavior by the accepters.

Not true. If we're accepting a team that we're expecting you to NC, and if you are not on this team, it make sense. If you are town, you'll do your duty and NC it. If you're scum, then we can expect you to NC if the team has a chance of success. The only reason why you, as scum, would not NC would be if there was scum on the team - and tbh, if 2 out of you, mpolo and boomfrog are spies, then we're screwed anyway.

So, unless we've already lost and are just unwittingly debating our choice of executioner, we can expect you to NC. And I would be far, FAR more comfortable pushing forward if you didn't have an active NC in your hands. Because otherwise, if you're a spy, then if we reject Lorenz you can simply NC Roband and propose a doomed team of your own, winning.

[Misnomer]

EBWOP:

*Because otherwise, if you're a spy, then if we reject Lorenz and cjdrum you can simply NC Roband and propose a doomed team of your own, winning. Or for that matter, if you and roband are both spies, you can NC cjdrum and win.

[Adam H]

Not true.

Yeah, my last point was stupidly wrong.

I guess your preferred mission is yourself, mpolo, and BF then? Why the love for BF? First, other than the content of their posts, it's still a 50/50 shot between him and webby. I know I defended BF right after he accused webby, but now that we got through his proposal successfully, I don't see a reason to trust him anymore. Second, he proposed himself, misnomer, and I, which should be his top team if he trusts me (which he has claimed several times). However, he then turned around and insisted we NC or reject it? That seems odd to me. If the mission was accepted, it would have cleared him of all suspicion, so I don't get what all his fuss what about. Third, I promise I will reject every team no matter what. BF, on the other hand, gave orders to accept teams without even caring about the context of the proposal. He would trust me to be on a mission, but doesn't necessarily think it's best if I become the leader. That doesn't make sense. He probably just didn't think about it, but it's still a bit scummy.

Note to all resistance: by voting "accept" for a team with player X on it, you are saying that you think X is less scummy than me. It is irrational (or scummy) to accept a team otherwise.

[Lorenz]

There's no reason to guess how many spies were on the first mission. If there were 2 spies on mission 1 + an unknown GoP, GoP has as much chance to be spy as anyone, I believe. FINE I'll try and do the math... we selected the team at random: 90 combos with 2 spies, 25 combos with 3/4 spies. That's 22% chance of 3 spies, given that there are at least 2 spies. Since there's 2 spies out of the entire 8 non-spy people, that's 25% chance for everyone else. I think. So it's 22% vs. 25%, assuming I did that right (which isn't a safe assumption...). But surely it's close.

I give you the point that there's no reason to guess, but I'd rather play the odds sometimes.

Just some odds calculating

Spoiler:

We KNOW that there was at least one spy in M1. The odds for for any other of the players there to be a spy is 3/9(3/8 considering only one spy). With a little binomial distirbution:
The odds of having 0 extra spies (1 total in mission 1) is 0.30 /
The odds of having 1 extra spy (2 total) is 0.44 /
The odds of having 2 extra spies (3 total) is 0.22
The odds of having 3 extra spies (4 total) is 0.03

So, the odds are in favor of there having been 2 spies. Also, your odds are skewed because you don't consider the possibility of GoP being the second spy. Also, add in the assumption that only one of BF and webby are spies and that number will raise even more... I just realized I also don't make that assumption for my .444 account of 2 total spies.
If I do...
There's a 0.39 chance of neither BF nor VZ are scum
There's a 0.46 chance of only one of them being scum
There's a 0.14 chance of both of them being scum.

Anyway, I'm definitely wiling to make some assumptions here and there because pure logic cannot take us much farther right now.

NINJA-d... BF is definitely raising some concern for me also, so I won't propose him on any team. My best bet is to follow my logic right now.

The current team leader is: Lorenz
The proposed mission is: 1

Proposed Team Member 1: Misnomer
Proposed Team Member 2: GoP
Proposed Team Member 3: Mpolo


And I will accept. I trust my logic and VZ is looking especially scummy for not making any strong accusations against mpolo/misnomer... from his point of view one of the should definitely be a spy.

[roband]

To be honest, my team suggestion was going to be Lorenz, Misnomer and one of mpolo/GoP

So I'm kinda happy with that one

[Misnomer]

@ Adam:

I trust Boomfrog over you because he was leading town earlier, and that's a bold play that I've rarely ever seen scum pull. Furthermore, if it's an either/or between Webby and BF (though it isn't, as both could be scum), then as I pointed out in my reasoning earlier, there are more explanations in which Webby is culpable than in which Boomfrog is. The NC thing was poorly thought out, but I assume it was at least in part so that we could wait on the result of the second investigation. Also, while his general acceptance worries me, your promise to reject scares me even more.


Now, as for this team... gragghh. I'm on it - good; mpolo's on it - good; GoP...?


...with the prospect of cjdrum getting the ability to distribute plot powers, I think this team should be no confidenced. Adam, are you happy to NC this team?

[Lorenz]

Durr... that's what I meant. I'm accepting given that we will NC.

@Misnomer: I've previously explained why I like GoP given that you and mpolo are town. There's no reason for me to propose a team with adam in it, because we might as well just trust adam right away, and the other teams I see as possible, one looks much scummy and the other one makes more assumptions.

[webby]

I think I'm going to reject this team. Adam H should save his No Confidence for a situation where we really need it. If we're going to trust him to propose the last team, then we can trust him to hold onto his No Confidence. That being the case, there's no reason to accept and then use NC, rather than rejecting straight away. If we don't trust Adam H, then I certainly don't want Misnomer on that team, because the only reason I trust Misnomer is because I trust Adam H. If Adam H and Misnomer are both spies, then we definitely can't accept this team, because Adam H won't NC it.

Does that make any sense?

And to Misnomer, who was talking about Boomfrog leading the town. I think you'll find he does that (or tries to do that) when he's scum as well as town - I think he was doing that in Wizardry for example? And I'm still convinced that the whole reason he used the power on me on that mission was because it would make me look scummy - as I've said before, it was clearly best scum play and not best town play. So there's no reason you should assign equal probabilities to each of the scum team possibilities from the last mission.

[Lorenz]

You make sense. And I mostly agree. I have been catching myself playing under par this days.

I'm going to reject most likely.

[Gopher of Pern]

Of course, we hit the same problem that we're screwed if cjdrum, roband and Adam are all spies

We can't all be spies since I'm not a spy. But seriously, we can't all be spies since there are 2 spies from the last mission team, which did not include cjdrum, roband, and myself. And lorenz and you, for that matter.

I'd prefer to plan on rejecting as many as you guys can stomach. That way if ANY of the proposals are accepted unexpectantly, I can NC it (and we can grill the accepters).

If we accept a team, we're completely trusting all three of the members of the team. It is a suboptimal choice to put me on the mission team rather than letting me be the fifth leader, because only good things can come from rejecting as many missions as possible. If you're going to trust me completely, you should trust me completely as the leader. And while it's likely that mpolo, misnomer, and BF are all resistance, I'm not willing to bet the game on it. I think it's more rational for everyone to bet the game on just me, rather than on mpolo AND misnomer AND BF.

And if you're accepting a team, expecting me to NC, you are trusting completely all the members of the team, AND me. So I'm not sure that is rational behavior by the accepters.


Oooooo I just had an unrelated thought - what if cjdrum sent a pm to jay a while ago preaccepting any mission with a spy on it. Seems like there's a good chance that last vote was a contigency vote rather than an active one... Or I guess he got mod-prodded, and voted at the same time he told jay he didn't want to play anymore. eh.

I'm not quite following your logic here. Just because I trust you enough for me to want you on a mission, does not mean that I trust you to propose the right team. If you do become mission leader, we will be stuck with whatever team you propose. Why is it so imperative that you propose the team? If Roband proposes the same team as you do, what would be the harm in accepting his team?

Which leads me to the obvious question: Which team are you going to propose when it comes around to you then? Personally, I would accept any team that makes the fewest possible assumptions (for me). I think my most well placed assumption is that you are town, so any team with yourself, Misnomer, mpolo, or myself. I would love to accept this team, as I believe it is the most likely out of any to succeed, but I will reject it, as we don't want cjdrum getting the powers.

[Lorenz]

And I will accept. I trust my logic and VZ is looking especially scummy for not making any strong accusations against mpolo/misnomer... from his point of view one of the should definitely be a spy.

There's just a comment I have to make about this. I don't believe it makes VZ look scummy. It was just part of a plan I had intended.
I didn't really ever think the team I proposed was going to be accepted, but I wanted to convince scum that I WAS going to accept it. My plan was always to reject it, but if there's scum in that team, maybe I could have convinced scum to accept the team, thinking they would have the votes.

This all quickly blew in my face because I wasn't remembering that there was still a NC out there.