[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

[roband]

I'm going to do an analysis post tonight.

I do love a good webby-analysis-post

The last one got you mislynched, hopefully I'll do better this time.

ah, I'll get over it.

Thanks for your thoughts. Your final round-up about sums up where I am at the moment as well.

I certainly think that e_e and Lorenz are the most scummy at the moment, and would happily see either one lynched, if the other is investigated.

Unvote for now, while I try to work out which I'd rather see lynched.

Is Lorenz your preference for a lynch webby, or would you be happy either way?

[roband]

ebwop: you're going to say that we're going to learn more from investigating e_e than we would from killing her.

Hmm. Yeah, I think that's a good reason NOT to lynch her, to be honest.

[Lorenz]

5. Lorenz

Spoiler:

Thinks roband's idea looks good. Worries about falseclaims. Neutral, no real new comment.
Suggests a two night strategy. Doesn't seem to consider the fact that one or both cops are likely to die. Neutral, good that there's content, but idea isn't well thought out.
Another not-so-well thought out idea. Chooses the worse of the two main plans. Slightly scummy.
Thinks a-wan, greenlover and roband are the most solidly townie. Neutral.
Has sudden revelation about e_e being scummy. Slightly scummy, something seems odd about this post.

Overall - either playing worse than he usually does, or scum. I'm going to say slightly to moderately scummy for now.

So what if one or both cops die?? How is that worse than having the cops die with both targeting the same person. We are much more likely to find scum with multiple investigations and even more if we explicitly say seer:investigate A, cop:investigate B.
I'm not turning back from choosing this plan, and I'm hoping people make their own analysis rather than see me scummy from what others claim is better.

[Lorenz]

EBWOP:

Is Lorenz your preference for a lynch webby, or would you be happy either way?

Looks like they made that clear with the voting...

[Ibarra]

@Lorenz:
What did you exactly find suspicious in e_e?

[a-wan]

Here's my read on things so far.

I was suspicious of e_e's first post, but there didn't seem to be a lot to go on besides. She had a few good posts which eased my suspicions some until she pushed for only a lynch vote without having settled on other strategies. Her posts since then have been much better, so I'm not sure anymore. That's why I'm sticking with her as my nomination for investigation.

If she is scum, the fact that she only wanted one vote really does make it seem like she must have an active partner, because, honestly, if John Citizen is her partner she would be that much more free about giving out information since we can't read a lurker.

This means that if she is scum then we might be able to trust that if John Citizen is scum then he has a different partner, maybe one that has participated a little less, which might be why it's so hard to read people right now.

I didn't suspect Lorenz at all until the "sudden realization" about e_e without any explanation as to what he thought the scum tells were.

One thought is this. It seems possible that if one of e_e or Lorenz is scum then so is the other. The problem is that if they're both scum, I think they're on the same team, so if we lynch one of them, we might want to consider investigating someone else so that we can hunt down a different scum team.

At this point, though, I don't have any great tells to point at. Misnomer expressing regret at not being a werewolf could be something or it could be just what it seems to be. Webby finding most people townie could be because John Citizen is scum so there really aren't as many participating scum, it could mean he's scum so he is only looking for two other scum, or it could just be projection on his part because he's almost always town.

Anyways, I think I've talked myself out of nominating e_e for the investigation.

Vote: Lorenz

And I've decided to nominate Webby to be investigated instead of e_e.

[a-wan]

What happens if we decide to investigate a cop? I think it puts the cop in an odd predicament if, for example, they're the one that's supposed to be investigated, which of course they won't do, so they investigate someone else. If they find scum, it might look suspicious if the person being investigated all of a sudden claims cop and says that someone else is scum.

[roband]

Ok, well I'm going to vote Lorenz as well. With my suggestion for the investigation being e_e.

However I will hold off, as L-2 is a little closer than I'd like. We have plenty of time before deadline and I wanna see some content from JC, as well as everyone else

ninja'd by a-wan: that's something that we can deal with if it comes up. The cop would not investigate themselves, obviously. They can investigate someone else and if they get a scum hit, then we can deal with it when the claim comes up. If they get a town investigation, they should keep quiet.

If on N2, we decide to investigate the person they already investigated on N1, they can again investigate someone else.

[a-wan]

EBWOP:

Never mind. Obviously, the other cop would get a negative result and the worst that would happen is that the scum being accused counter-claims the same cop status. We lynch the counter-claim and there's no problem. Scum couldn't possibly claim first, since they're assuming that they're not being investigated that night.

[existential_elevator]

If y'all excuse me, I had a thought and I'm putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat.

People pro- cop claiming day 1 (afaik):
Greenlover
Misnomer

I thought there were more of you? Speak up! Did anyone else agree with this plan?

Damn, I'm going to take this hat back off.

Anyway, two things from reading through quickly just now -
a-wan gives me a strong townie vibe.
I'm neutral on Lorenz.
Misnomer makes me uncomfortable.

I'm also realising more and more than me and Roband are just at crossed wires. I thought he was pro- cop claiming day 1 (pre-results) which is just a horrible idea perfectly sensible idea that you should confess to having. When I read again, he wasn't. In fact, we seem to want the same things. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing at this stage

If people could explicitly state about how they feel about having either the cop or seer claim before having a positive result (unless, of course, they're about to get lynched) that would really help me figure out how to vote.

Either way, if Misnomer isn't lynched, he's the guy I want investigated.

[Misnomer]

I thought he was pro- cop claiming day 1 (pre-results) which is just a horrible idea perfectly sensible idea that you should confess to having.

Ermm... that's a real interesting approach to scum-hunting ya got there.


But yeah. I recommended FTC because I thought it would help destroy one scum faction while having no impact on our hunt for the other - as has now been pointed out, it would have an impact on the other, so I withdraw my plan. As I said earlier though, if we do lose one of the cops, then I think the other cop should claim so we can do a FTC.

Going back to the main issues at hand, my nomination of Lorenz earlier was really just to get a reaction, and it didn't really give me much insight. With the apparent soft-bussing of e_e though, I think there's grounds for real suspicion there.

I will be voting to lynch Lorenz. If Lorenz is not lynched, I want them investigated - if Lorenz is lynched, I want e_e investigated.

[Misnomer]

Also...

Mod: Can we get a prod on John Citizen? I know the game's only a day or so old, but this is a turbo after all.

[a-wan]

I'm happy to stand behind the strategy that one and only one cop claims the first day. And here's why:

1. In order for the doctor to be useful he must protect town. Without a known town to protect there's a chance he could protect scum from the other scum.
2. We are guaranteed that one cop would live until Day 2. We don't have that guarantee otherwise.
3. Math (assuming we don't lynch a power role):

The probability that all three power roles survive until day 2:
- If cop does not claim then both factions have to miss 3 out of 6 people or 1 faction can target the person the doc chooses randomly while the other misses the other cop and the doc: (1/2)*(1/2) + (1/6)*(1/6)*(2/3) = 26.9%
- If cop claims then both factions have to miss 2 out of 5 people: (3/5)*(3/5) = 36%

The probability that both cops survive until day 2:
- If cop does not claim then both factions have to miss 2 out of 6 people or 1 faction hits the person the doc targets while the other misses the other cop: (2/3)*(2/3)+(1/6)*(1/6)*(5/6) = 46.8%
- If cop claims then both factions have to miss 1 out of 5 people: (4/5)*(4/5) = 64%

The probability that at least one cop survives until day 2:
- If cop doesn't claim then we have to avoid the possibility of one faction killing one cop while the other kills the other and doc doesn't protect either: 1 - (1/3)*(1/6)*(2/3) = 96%
- If cop claims we are guaranteed that unless one faction is playing to lose then one cop will survive = 100%

The two reasons people have brought up as to why the cop shouldn't claim on the first day are:

1. If the doctor is killed the first night (36% chance if a cop claims compared to 30.6% if a cop doesn't claim), then the cop will be killed on the second night.
2. If the other cop finds scum, then both cops will be revealed and the doc (if still alive) will only be able to save one.

The first is the stronger of the two reasons. It basically means that there's a 36% chance that the cop who claims will be killed on the second night. But with 4 NKs in two days, there's a greater chance that he'll be dead by the end of the second night if he doesn't claim, and that's assuming he doesn't get mislynched.

The second reason isn't even as strong. First, if he finds something the first night, we'll be glad he was protected. If neither cop finds anything, we'll be glad at least one cop was protected. If both cops find scum, we'll be glad he was protected. If the other cop finds scum, then the doc (if he's still alive) has to choose which cop to protect. At that point, which cop is the most useful? The one who only has one scum left to find or the one who has two scum left to find? In that case, we'd still want to protect the cop who claimed first.

Anyways, as you can see, I still feel like it would be a good thing if the cop claims today. If you look back over my previous analysis, you'll see that voting on who to investigate doesn't change percentages as much as having the cop claim.

However, I was happy to go along with investigation votes because it furthered discussion and gave us potential scum tells. I'll continue to go with that strategy because a unified strategy is better than a disjointed one, but if I've convinced people of the usefulness of ftc from day one, then I'd be happy to go with that as I think it's a strong strategy.

[roband]

I still don't like it.

[existential_elevator]

Well, okay, unless Greenlover objects, that's kind of all I need to prove that one of Misnomer, Greenlover, or a-wan is scum

You see, my logic is something like this:
1. I know I am town.
2. There are 4 other town.
3. 3 of town total are power roles.
4. 2 are cops.
*5. Of the three people supporting cop claiming, none of them are the cop, as they have not claimed.
6. If the three people supporting cop claiming are town, they have to be the doctor and the two vanilla town.
7. Given point 1, I know that point 6 means at least one of them are scum.

I understand that there are problems with point 5, around which my logic is kind of hinging, and the most obvious one to me is:
- It is possible that one (or more) of Greenlover, Misnomer and a-wan is a cop, but is looking for majority support before claiming.

There are far more benefits to scum than there are to town for a cop claiming. It's totally a gamble for them, but I could imagine both sides being willing to take that risk in hopes of finding the cop which is beneficial to their faction.

Does this seem like reasonable logic, and/or have I made any other obvious errors here?

[roband]

Does this seem like reasonable logic, and/or have I made any other obvious errors here?

Other than the fact that this logic is ONLY good for you, no.
Until we get you as a confirmed townie, we don't know.

How could we do that? OH I KNOW! Let's investigate you tonight

Hmm, I wonder if you knew you were going to get backed into that corner?

[existential_elevator]

...no, at least the other two non-cop townies should be able to put themselves into that equation.

[a-wan]

You've raised an interesting point, but since there are 4 scum out of 9, and you're saying that 1 out of 3 of us is scum, all you're saying is that we're slightly townier than the rest of you (assuming you're guessing correctly that one of us would have claimed by now).

The part that I find disturbing is this:

There are far more benefits to scum than there are to town for a cop claiming. It's totally a gamble for them, but I could imagine both sides being willing to take that risk in hopes of finding the cop which is beneficial to their faction.

I just posted a defense of the strategy that I think was at least pretty good. The fact that you read what I wrote and were able to make the statement that there are "far more benefits to scum" seems like you're hoping we won't see a bluff.

[roband]

Also e_e, you just claimed to not be a power role. If you're not scum that was a bloody stupid move. You've narrowed down the number of people who are better night kill targets than you.

Now, was that a stupid townie mistake or a stupid scum mistake (because you wouldn't even think about it, if you were scum).

Sorry e_e, you're making yourself look worse and worse...

[greenlover]

Don't have the time to make the post I wish I could, but I see a couple of things that need my attention.

1) Yes, I'm in favor of having one and only one cop claim, but I am also willing to go along with the majority voting on the target idea, since some of those plans have pluses, too.
2) E_E, wouldn't having the cop claim before we have finished discussing the plan be a bad move for town (and thus cop), because that would cut down on discussion?
3) Right now my vote is probably going to land on one of Lorenz or E_E, and (if we are going to run the majority votes on target plan), I would like to have whichever one I do not vote to lynch investigated. If we need to have two preferences for a investigation, my other one would probably be Roband.

[roband]

Bleh, I was wondering who was going to pull the roband-is-being-too-bold card, and how soon.

I suspected it might've been webby, based on his experiences of me in previous games.

The fact is, this is the first game I've played in a while where things are simple enough for me to actually get my head around decent strategies. Normally I play from my gut, but I don't need to do that here.

So yeah, that's why I've been a bit more outspoken than normal.

[Lorenz]

I haven't read todays posts, except seen I have been voted much.

@Lorenz:
What did you exactly find suspicious in e_e?

This

Also - it could be dangerous to assume that a faction will want to keep the cop for the opposite faction alive. A power role is usually more desirable to take out than a non-power role. We would sort of have to hope that one faction targets and the other doesn't, leaving us with one NK who is not the cop. Worst case scenario, neither bother to target the cop and we get 2 NKs guaranteed. So... for it to be a worthwhile strategy, we have to hope that one faction believes the other will support them.

(Since what I'm about to post will create a lot of wine, I'm probably going to get killed. I guess It's better that I get lynched rather than a power role, so if I am, then hope you can make the best of it)

I could interpret that as an invitation to the other faction to help each other out by killing the other faction-targeting cop. I didn't want to post about what it was because this can be also interpreted very badly. Since I'm probably getting lynched anyhow, and I will turn out to be town, I don't worry to much about it now.
If I can convince you I'm town though, I should definitely be investigated because keeping me alive without investigation will be a hell-lot'o wine.

Off to read the rest of the posts and post more content.

[Lorenz]

AHHHH... that's what I get for posting before reading.
Unvote
Vote: existential_elevator

Anyway, I don't think there's anything else for me to address. People just seem to think I'm scummy, and I haven't changed my mind about what strategy is best. Also, I don't think robands logic on claiming vanilla town is right. If I were say, a cop (for example purposes), I would probably also call vanilla townie to get attention away from me.

[a-wan]

Maybe I'm too easily swayed, but I don't want to get the vote wrong, end e_e has been acting more scummy recently. So

Unvote
Vote: existential_elevator

And I un-nominate webby and nominate Lorenz to get copped.

[Lorenz]

I nominate myself to be copped as well.

[cjdrum]

John Citizen is being prodded.

[webby]

Thoughts on last night's posts:

We are much more likely to find scum with multiple investigations and even more if we explicitly say seer:investigate A, cop:investigate B.

Not true, I made this mistake as well. Either way, each cop has 2/7 chance of hitting their scum, the only difference is that your way has a higher chance of not hitting any scum, but a small chance of hitting two scum.

a-wan, that strategy is possibly ok if we don't discuss who the cop is to investigate. We do not want half-confirmed townies. However, I'm not convinced that it's better than the current strategy. It's a little more complicated than that maths suggests, for example there are scenarios where there's only one nightkill and it's on scum and we can clear someone based on a doctor result. But more important is that we're not doing all these things randomly. I would hope the doctor could pick better than a random target and I don't think scum are going to pick a random target.

e_e, that's dodgy logic - I don't think a cop would claim against the wishes of the majority. Also what a-wan said - pick three random people, chances are at least one of them is scum.

roband, I don't think claiming vanilla town is scummy, especially if you're not vanilla town, or if you're spreading wine around. But that's good, townie wine.

I'm not convinced to change my vote yet, and I still think the last three players on my list (e_e, Misnomer, Lorenz) have been the scummiest so far.

Remember that we do want to be ready to lynch well before deadline in case we get a cop claim or something from the lynchee and need to work out what to do.

[Lorenz]

Not true, I made this mistake as well. Either way, each cop has 2/7 chance of hitting their scum, the only difference is that your way has a higher chance of not hitting any scum, but a small chance of hitting two scum.

I still don't agree on those odds, because the total chances of choosing to investigate scum (assuming town lynch) are 50/50. On the second case, the chances of deciding to investigate scum is 1/4, the chances of investigating at least one scum are 3/4.
HOWEVER, since on the first case there's the chance of having decided to investigate a cop, and they can then go on and investigate another person... I guess I don't strongly oppose it.

But it's much better to analyze this from who we decide to investigate, rather than the point of view of each cop.

[Lorenz]

Wow... EBWOP:

On the first case, the chances of investigating scum are 50/50... so 50 % chance of having one confirmed scum, plus some percentage if we decide to investigate a cop. So total is actually 78% of hitting scum.
On the second case, there's 25% chance of hitting no scum, 50% chance of hitting 1 scum, and 25% chance of hitting 2 scum.

This are the right odds. On the second case, we have 75% of hitting at least one scum, compared to 78% of hitting exactly one scum.

Second choice still seems better for me, but not by such a large margin as I expected.

[Lorenz]

EBWOP:
Still some mistakes.
On the first case, the chances are 57 % of hitting scum. 50% + .5*.25*4/7 (assuming that a non cop is lynched)

On the second case, the chances of NOT hitting scum go down to 25% - .25*2/7*4/7 = 21%. So the chances of hitting at least one scum are 79%.

I hope I don't find another mistake, but now I am truly convinced the second choice is better.

[Lorenz]

EBWOP:
Sorry for so many posts, but I'm still making assumptions.

The only thing I will absolutely say is that on the first case, the chance of hitting scum is at least 50%.
The chance of finding at least one scum in the second case is at least 75%. The exact numbers should be close to my previous post.

@Webby: Care calculate those yourself make sure I'm right?

[webby]

Wow... EBWOP:

On the first case, the chances of investigating scum are 50/50... so 50 % chance of having one confirmed scum, plus some percentage if we decide to investigate a cop. So total is actually 78% of hitting scum.
On the second case, there's 25% chance of hitting no scum, 50% chance of hitting 1 scum, and 25% chance of hitting 2 scum.

This are the right odds. On the second case, we have 75% of hitting at least one scum, compared to 78% of hitting exactly one scum.

Second choice still seems better for me, but not by such a large margin as I expected.

I don't see this?

Assuming mislynch, but not cop, there are 8 players left in the game. If each cop investigates someone randomly, they have 2 players they would get a scum result on, and 5 players they would get a town result on. Hence 2/7. The same is true of the other cop. So there's a 25/49 chance of hitting no scum, 20/49 chance of hitting one scum, and a 4/49 chance of hitting two scum. Total average number of scum hit is 28/49 = 0.57.

Same assumptions, but targetting same player. If the player targetted is not a cop (75% chance), then there's a 2/3 chance of hitting scum. If player targetted is a cop (25% chance), then we have a 2/7 chance of hitting scum. We never hit two scum.

Total number of scum hit = 1/2 + 1/14 = 0.57 again.

Where am I wrong?

[a-wan]

I covered the different scenarios here. I did calculate probabilities out of 8 people instead of out of 7 (the cop won't cop himself), but I think the basic patterns will hold.

There's definitely a better chance of getting one scum if both cops choose the same target, and all we need is one scum each day (plus the hope that scum takes out each other). There's a slightly better chance of getting two scum if cops deliberately target different players, but a slightly better chance of getting at least one scum if cops choose their targets independently.

Of course, with discussion we should be able to improve the odds, but those numbers are a starting point. Based on the numbers I'm content with the cops choosing the same target. In the end, though, saying that we have a much better chance of finding scum investigating separately or together is not true. The numbers are all pretty close.

I was starting to worry that we might be mislynching or wasting an investigation on Lorenz, but it seems like now that he at least switched my vote that he's thinking he may survive and wants to see if he can get away with only being investigated by one cop, as he would have a chance to come up with no result if he gets investigated by the right cop.

I'll keep my vote as is, for now, but I'm not against switching it to lynch Lorenz and cop e_e if that's what people want to do. Both have essentially claimed not to have power roles which automatically switches them from a base of 5/9 probability of being town to 1/3 probability. And obviously, I know there are caveats to that calculation, I'm just saying that if someone really was telling us that they were not a power role it increases the probability that they are scum.

[Lorenz]

Blah!... you're right. I had a 1/2 in a formula where it should have been 1/4.
I agree with the 57% on the same investigation.

You meant 24/49 on the second case with multiple investigations right? = 49%.

Well, I agree I was wrong now. As I said on a different thread, I've been catching myself playing under par this days.

[Lorenz]

Ninja-d

I was starting to worry that we might be mislynching or wasting an investigation on Lorenz, but it seems like now that he at least switched my vote that he's thinking he may survive and wants to see if he can get away with only being investigated by one cop, as he would have a chance to come up with no result if he gets investigated by the right cop.

Yes, I do think I may survive now so I'm doing my best to do things right. I was also working on the assumption before that I was going to be investigated by both cops, not one.

And of course I would prefer for a single cop to investigate me and the second one not to go to waste, but that can only be from my point of view. Also, If I'm not investigated I will be in line to be lynched next anyhow, so it's still a good idea to investigate me from my perspective.

[roband]

Also, I don't think robands logic on claiming vanilla town is right.

Well sure, the cops should be claiming vanilla town. BUT e_e is explicitly saying "I'm not a cop" which.. well, meh, yeah I suppose.

My problem is that she was using "well I'm not a cop" in her logic. So, if she IS a cop, that logic falls apart.

So do we listen to it or not? That's bad wine.

[John Citizen]

Apologies for lurking.

Just some thoughts as I read the thread:

Roband voted e_e for bringing up 2 factions working together. This seems somewhat justified as e_e made clear a potential scum strategy (here) should someone claim cop/seer.

Misnomer raises a valid point about scum behaviour in this post. This seems to invalidate the scum strategy mentioned by e_e, meaning that it is unlikely a hidden message to the scum team/s. It also initially reflects on me as an aid to scum, but a closer look makes it seem to propose a scum strategy more friendly to town (compared to the other scum team), and thus is a somewhat townie post.

Webby has created a good post-by-post analysis.

e_e creates an argument that Misnomer, greenlover or a-wan is scum. Roband argues that this logic is only useful for e_e. On first glance, this is wrong, as roband also knows that he is town, and so can make the same conclusion. More closely, e_e's logic only works if she is not cop. Roband points out that it was bad play not to claim cop.

A-wan interprets e_e as saying that the group of three cop-claim supporters is slightly townier than average (incorrect, as at least one of them is scum, not one in total).

Assuming e_e's point 5 is correct, then at least one of e_e, misnomer, greenlover and a-wan is scum (which may be useful later, even if not now).

[roband]

Assuming e_e's point 5 is correct, then at least one of e_e, misnomer, greenlover and a-wan is scum (which may be useful later, even if not now).

Standard probability tells us that nearly 2 of them are scum, so I still don't see how useful e_e's logic was.

[existential_elevator]

...Because there's a difference between statistical probability and being able to hammer down actual names later in the game? If we're getting near endgame, and 2/3 of them have shown up as dead townies, it's like, very safe to lynch the remaining one.

I would also be willing to wager in that group that it's more likely more of them are scum.

[Misnomer]

JC, what are your prefences for lynching/investigating?