[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

[roband]

Webby, would you conisder a lynch on e_e and an investigation on Lorenz?

The fact he's happy to be investigated weirds me out a bit. Scum wanting to stay alive just a bit longer, or town 0wanting to be a confirmed townie?

Investigating e_e would be good enough for me, because if she's scum we can lynch her tomorrow.

[existential_elevator]

For the record, my suspicions are actually as follows:

I think that if Lorenz shows up scum, Roband and Lorenz are a scum team.

I think that Misnomer and someone else is a scum team.

I think Roband may be pushing for a teammate lynch to earn him points, and then hoping that if he tries hard enough to associate us, town will blindly follow and lynch me. If you read back, Roband was also accusing me of buddying him. I felt too much like he was trying to distance himself from Lorenz.

If Lorenz was a pro-town power role, he should probably claim before he gets lynched. If he's vanilla, best to shut up. If he was the one who mentioned that "what happens if the cop investigates himself" then maybe we should take that as breadcrumming and glare wildly at Roband. I do think it's more likely that Lorenz is a cop of some sort. At work,so don't really have time to go back and check.

I'm gonna

Vote: Misnomer
Investigate: Lorenz

[roband]

I think that if Lorenz shows up scum, Roband and Lorenz are a scum team.

...

I think Roband may be pushing for a teammate lynch to earn him points, and then hoping that if he tries hard enough to associate us, town will blindly follow and lynch me. If you read back, Roband was also accusing me of buddying him. I felt too much like he was trying to distance himself from Lorenz.

wat? If I've been 'distancing' from anyone, it's you.

I've disagreed with every suggestion you've come up with. This isn't because I'm trying to not be associated with you, it's because I think you're wrong.
You can't say that you think Lorenz is scummy, because he's only scummy due to a likely attachment to you.

I think you're scummy because of all the things you've done which I've listed.
Lorenz has inadvertently attached himself to you, in my opinion.

Vote: e_e
Investigate: Lorenz

Anyone wanna total these up for us?

[existential_elevator]

Roband, we've basically agreed on most things since the very start We misread eachother a few times, yes.

[roband]

EBWOP

I think Roband may be pushing for a teammate lynch to earn him points

i've been pushing for YOU to be lynched. I'm all of the confused.

[Ibarra]

Roband, we've basically agreed on most things since the very start We misread eachother a few times, yes.

So roband votes you and then you say this. I see this as a buddy attempt on roband which seems all the more suspicious as he just voted you.

Unvote
Vote: e_e
Note: e_e is at L-1. Do not vote her yet while we still have time.

I still find Lorenz suspicious though, so:
Investigate: Lorenz

[existential_elevator]

If you actually read the beginning of game play through, you'll notice that a few times Roband basically restates what I just said. A couple times we cross wires. At the end of the day, we seem to agree on the basics of strategy. I really have no idea what caused him to push on me: I ignored it (politely) at first, because I figured that he might have been trying to provoke discussion.

[roband]

And the consensus is that Lorenz is to be investigated.

Cop and seer, do it.

I do not recall ever stating what you 'just said' - apart from in my first post of the game, which took me 15 minutes to type up and you nipped in while I was typing it.
Even then, it wasn't important stuff.

[webby]

Webby, would you conisder a lynch on e_e and an investigation on Lorenz?

The fact he's happy to be investigated weirds me out a bit. Scum wanting to stay alive just a bit longer, or town 0wanting to be a confirmed townie?

Investigating e_e would be good enough for me, because if she's scum we can lynch her tomorrow.

Yes, this is fine. I don't consider the difference in scumminess to be that large. Will vote when we're ready for the hammer.

[roband]

Sweet. I'm feeling very good about this lynch.

Less so about the investigation, but we'll see.

[greenlover]

Well, I'm feeling pretty good about lynching E_E, but I won't vote her yet, as we still have time.

I don't feel that investigating Lorenz is a good idea ('cause I doubt he is scum), but w/e. There is a lot of wine around him, so I see how he could be considered a good target.

[roband]

Well, I'm feeling pretty good about lynching E_E, but I won't vote her yet, as we still have time.

I don't feel that investigating Lorenz is a good idea ('cause I doubt he is scum), but w/e. There is a lot of wine around him, so I see how he could be considered a good target.

He seemed a good target. Then he was all happy to be investigated. It's confused me a little.
However, I think (from playing with him previously) he's smart enough to try and pull a trick like this, as scum.

[Misnomer]

There is a lot of wine around him, so I see how he could be considered a good target.

If he's got wine around him, that's all the more reason to investigate him - we'll swiftly get an answer one way or the other, and won't have to spend the rest of the game worrying about its significance.

[greenlover]

However, I think (from playing with him previously) he's smart enough to try and pull a trick like this, as scum.

I'm not saying that his eagerness to be investigated couldn't be a trick. Its just that his reaction in general strikes me as a towny who has been deflated. He could still be scum, but I am no where near as sure of it as I was before. So, I think that there are probably better targets for investigation.

There is a lot of wine around him, so I see how he could be considered a good target.

If he's got wine around him, that's all the more reason to investigate him - we'll swiftly get an answer one way or the other, and won't have to spend the rest of the game worrying about its significance.

Exactly. The major reason I see for investigating him is to clear up the wine. That's what I said (or, I guess, meant to say).

[a-wan]

After Lorenz defended himself, I was starting to feel a little better about him--his defense was plausible and he was willing to be investigated to prove it.

My main problem with him, though, was that after he had gained some confidence, he started pushing for cops to investigate different people. That says to me that asking for the investigation to be on him was only to buy himself another day. Once it seemed like the play might work, he wanted to see if there was any way to not get copped, so he tried to see if he could push one of the cops on to someone else, which would give him a 50% chance of turning up as half-confirmed town, which gives him a ray of sunlight for actually winning the game.

All this leads me to believe that if e_e and Lorenz are both scum, then maybe they're not on the same team. See, if e_e and Lorenz were on the same team and both cops were investigating different people, then there was a chance that he gets copped by the wrong cop, but no chance at all that the other would turn up a scum result, thus taking attention away from him. But if they're on different teams the other cop might actually turn up something in their investigation and Lorenz would almost be off the hook.

Also, it would be quite the desperation play to ask for his partner to be killed and for himself to be investigated.

[a-wan]

EBWOP:

I guess all I'm saying is that this could potentially be a good combination, since we could get one scum from each team and then be able to analyze their relationships with everyone else, and we'd be well on our way to having it all figured out.

[existential_elevator]

I've more or less claimed vanilla. Better to lynch me than to accidentally someone important. Hopefully I've been acting drastically enough that you'll get information from my death.

[cjdrum]

Obligatory Vote Count

[L-1] existential_elevator (4): Lorenz, a-wan, roband, Ibarra
Lorenz (1): webby
Misnomer (1): existential_elevator

Not voting: Misnomer, greenlover, John Citizen

9 alive. 5 to lynch.
Deadline is about 22h, 40m from this post.

[dotproduct]

Lorenz (3): Ibarra, webby

[cjdrum]

Hey look, a distraction!

[roband]

Just a note guys, as it annoys me when people do this wrong when I mod, that the rules state:

8. You may not post game content at night. It is night when hammer is cast or when the aforementioned deadline is reached.

We could do with hearing from JC, so I suggest not hammering for now.

[existential_elevator]

Just promise me y'all trust Lorenz if nobody speaks up tomorrow, and that you'll investigate Misnomer or Roband tomorrow?

Any further questions for me, now's the time.

My sincere apologies to a-wan.

[roband]

I really can't choose between despairing town or desperate scum.

I'm still thinking the latter, because of the way we decided to lynch you and investigate Lorenz because of his attitude. Now you are trying the same "ok, I've given up" approach.

[John Citizen]

I'd say that, from the debate, at least one of roband and e_e is scum, if not both. E_E has made various slip-ups, which roband has picked up on and emphasised throughout the day. I feel that some of his reactions are overemphasised, but e_e's recent posting does strike me as having given up to some extent (as roband mentioned). Ibarra feels somewhat scummy for bringing up the votes to L-1, where scum could easily hammer. I'd support an e_e lynch, but I don't want to hammer. Some of lorenz's posting seems slightly desperate, specifically this post - it seems like a last-ditch attempt for scum to survive another day. For these reasons, I:

Unofficial vote: e_e
Investigate: lorenz or Ibarra

[roband]

To be honest JC, you were the person we were waiting to hear from.

Just hammer, that way we get night over with faster

[existential_elevator]

Roband, give me a break, we still haven't heard from Misnomer or Greenlover.

I know they're both people high up on my scum list, but this is ranking you even higher. Who are you protecting?

[roband]

Well greenlover said this:

Well, I'm feeling pretty good about lynching E_E, but I won't vote her yet, as we still have time.

I don't feel that investigating Lorenz is a good idea ('cause I doubt he is scum), but w/e. There is a lot of wine around him, so I see how he could be considered a good target.

and yeah, I didn't notice Misnomer hadn't spoken up.

I'm protecting my boredom. The sooner night starts, the sooner night ends.

[Ibarra]

Ibarra feels somewhat scummy for bringing up the votes to L-1, where scum could easily hammer.

I don't see why it is scummy at all.
I'm suspicious of e_e and want her to be lynched, so I voted her.
But I do not want a hammer yet as we have time, so I wrote the warning.
If someone does hammer even after I wrote the warning, he/she would be the object of suspicion.

[Misnomer]

Ermm... people are waiting for me to say something before the hammer? I'm not sure I've got anything more to say


I supported the plan for dual-targeting, which is what we've adopted. I supported the plan for follow the cop, and recanted after it was pointed out that this could completely screw over the other cop. I stated my lynch preference was Lorenz, and my investigation preference e_e. It doesn't particularly bother me if it's the other way around, both have seemed suspicious.

If I've seemed quieter than usual, it's probably just because I find playing the probabilities game a massive turn off - it's a smart strategy, don't get me wrong, but that doesn't mean I have to enjoy it.


Anyways, are we done here? Can I hammer?

[existential_elevator]

Yeah, I really hate playing the probabilities game. Why not just run the whole thing through a simulator?

Anyways, whatevs, get this over with, I'm on my knees here.

[roband]

Deadline in 15mins, I think.

I don't think we're playing a probability game here, like has been done in some other games.
We don't have a guaranteed win strat, but I think we have to be smart about the way we investigate and protect, otherwise we have no chance at all.

[cjdrum]

End of Day Vote Count

existential_elevator (4): Lorenz, a-wan, roband, Ibarra
Lorenz (1): webby
Misnomer (1): existential_elevator

Not voting: Misnomer, greenlover, John Citizen


On the first Day of the Wolves, the Town ran through some numbers, said some other stuff, and generally did what they did best: they worked out a plan as to how they were going to get rid of all these people and creatures trying to kill them.

After a long and hard day's work, the town decided to string up existential_elevator. With just over half an hour left in the day, existential_elevator had resorted to her doom, and a fair proportion of the town were there to see her fall. Then, hanging for the end of the day, an unknown force dropped the floor of the gallows in the last few seconds - a task which had been completed so many times before. And at that, it was night, and all the townsfolk hurried to their homes and attempted to not look like a threat or, more importantly, a target.

existential_elevator has been lynched. Her role will be revealed in the morning.

There were, however, two plotting duos, ready to do whatever it took to eliminate the people of this town. Two people had been told what they were to do, and one had an extreme dilemma in front of them.

It is now Night One. Mafia members can now directly communicate with each other, as can the Werewolves.
Please send all Night Actions as soon as possible. Night ends in at most 48 hours.

[cjdrum]

The night was long, yet anything but restful. Several people were up all night, plotting and counter-plotting, while others lay awake in fear that they might not see the break of day again.

One person, however, was running in fear of the wolves. He was running far away from Secretia. He had had his share of mobsters and miners and all kinds of things, but this was just too much for him.
As he was running, however, he heard the soft galloping noise of paws on the ground. He thought he was hallucinating.

He wasn't.
Misnomer, Vanilla Townie, has been mauled Night One.

In the morning, the Town instinctively looked to the gallows. existential_elevator was hanging there, swaying in the slight breeze. One bold member stepped up to her and looked at the result. They came back to the group, and annnounced...
existential_elevator, Werewolf, was lynched Day One.

It is now Day Two. The day will end 96 hours from this post, or when a hammer occurs.
With 7 people alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

[roband]

Cool, that's an awesome result on e_e.

And only one NK too, so either both factions targetted the same person or we had a successful doctor.
Normally, by protecting someone who was targetted, a successful doctor would give us a confirmed townie (to the doctor at least), but that's not the case here.

So cop and seer should speak up now, if Lorenz got a positive result for either of you.
If he is town (and therefore neither of the investigative roles speaks up) then we look at voting records and such, I guess.

[Lorenz]

Nice! I was beginning to doubt our decision on e_e.
It looks like I've got some wine splashed on my by the last posts of e_e. however, I know nothing is going to be claimed on me (unless a false claim, which would not make much sense) so I'm going to assume now that I'm a confirmed town, which you can accept yourself once everyone has posted.

It makes more sense that we had a successful doctor, as I really doubt Misnomer caused enough trouble to be targeted by both. Also, I'm looking back at some posts which seemed all right but given the results seem a little worrying. Not terribly worrying, as they make perfect sense as town also. However, one of them could be an attempt for the second wolf to associate me with e_e.

This looks like you're making an excuse to vote e_e later. If someone is more suspicious than the reset for you then vote them.

However, they then explicitly asked me to explain what I suddenly realized. This wouldn't fit much with my thoughts.

I didn't suspect Lorenz at all until the "sudden realization" about e_e without any explanation as to what he thought the scum tells were.
One thought is this. It seems possible that if one of e_e or Lorenz is scum then so is the other. The problem is that if they're both scum, I think they're on the same team, so if we lynch one of them, we might want to consider investigating someone else so that we can hunt down a different scum team.

They then went ahead and voted me, and nominated webby rather than e_e. However, they then quickly changed vote to e_e, which looks good.

This screams of "oh-god-they-caught-my-partner-I-better-not-associate-myself". Congratulations, you're next on my scum list

This is the one I worry the most about. It's a much more direct accusation and could have gotten more people to go against me. However, they did vote e_e somewhat early and pushed hard against e_e also.

So basically, I set out to investigate those posts and convinced myself that they weren't so scummy. I will do a more in depth analysis of the whole day later.

[roband]

Can you not see where I was coming from though Lorenz? The suddenness of it was very worrying.

I want to wait for everyone to post before I look at anything else - also it's 1:30am here so I need to sleep - so nothing else from me for now

[Lorenz]

Yeah, I can see perfectly where everyone was coming from. I may have been worried also, but do you see where I'm coming from also?
The second wolf could have realized that and try to put pressure on me, and take some away from e_e. Much more pressure than a townie would.

But still, as I said, I couldn't find anything too bad. I would have just erased my post but I like to post what I'm thinking about even if my conclusion didn't go where I wanted it to.

[Lorenz]

EBWOP: I may have been worried too, but do you see where I'm coming from now?

[webby]

Ok, so we've lost a vanilla townie and a werewolf.

That leaves four town, three of which are power roles, 1 werewolf and 2 mafia. I think we treat this as LYLO, because if we hit a townie, we'd have to get extremely lucky to win.

Because there was only one nightkill and not two, we can hit the remaining werewolf, leaving us at likely 3-2 (if there had been two town nightkills, we'd actually lose if we lynched the werewolf).

Later when I have time, I'll look at who I think is scum, and analyse the possible ways to proceed - including ideas about claiming and whether to lynch - I have some undeveloped thoughts I want to think about more before posting.

[Ibarra]

a-wan gives me a strong townie vibe.
I'm neutral on Lorenz.
Misnomer makes me uncomfortable.

Looking at this, it seems that e_e found a-wan townie.

Then in her next post she said one of a-wan, Misnomer and greenlover is scum.

Well, okay, unless Greenlover objects, that's kind of all I need to prove that one of Misnomer, Greenlover, or a-wan is scum

I wonder what caused the sudden shift from "townie" to "one of the scum". Perhaps it was a tactic to distance herself from a-wan?
I'm also quite suspicious about the way e_e worded her statement saying whether greenlover would object.
Anyway, I would want either one of greenlover or a-wan to be investigated.

Thoughts on this?