[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

[roband]

Ibarra, the problem is that those comments were made using different thoughts.

The first is gut feeling, and instinct from reading the game.
The second is logic, and numbers from what she 'knew' to be true.

As it was, the second one was a lie. That doesn't mean that the logic was false though, she was just starting it with intentionally incorrect information.

All-in-all, I don't know what to make of it. I think she may have been honest with the first comment and lying with the second.

If e_e was made uncomfortable by Misnomer, maybe it was because she thought he was a mafiaite - that would explain why the werewolves killed him (I'm assuming this from the flavour).
Neutral on Lorenz makes sense (I'm assuming here that no-one is going to speak up now - but if you are, do it now!) as she would have no affiliation with him.
The townie vibe on a-wan is the most difficult one to work out, as she had every incentive to lie. I would guess, that as the rest of this post was honest, that she truly believed a-wan to be townie and was attempting to gain townie-points by pointing it out.

Time for a reread.

[roband]

Ok, so a readthrough gives me no real connections/distancing, apart from Lorenz, who looks bad even if I read back as if I know he's town. Weird.

Anyway, e_e said:

Well, okay, unless Greenlover objects, that's kind of all I need to prove that one of Misnomer, Greenlover, or a-wan is scum

and

I would also be willing to wager in that group that it's more likely more of them are scum.

now, as she put herself in a group with those 3, I'd be inclined to think that she was half telling the truth and half protecting her partner.
By which I mean, her partner isn't in that group, but she was doing some true scum-hunting towards the other faction.
So I think e_e thought either greenlover or a_wan are mafiaites. Whilst I'm not getting scumminess from either of them specifically, it's useful to know what e_e might have been thinking.

Also, the reread caught this:

I'd say that, from the debate, at least one of roband and e_e is scum, if not both.

it strikes me that JC (lurky = scummy when we're effectively at LYLO, btw) could be attempting to tie my alignment to e_e's, when I think it's pretty clear that I've been acting in the best interests of town all game.

Thus, I would say that JC is most scummy right now. Yes it's OMGUS, but why else would someone be trying to link me to e_e?

[a-wan]

Just my initial thoughts.

First of all, e_e's switch was based solely on the fact that she was hoping to get three people who had advocated FTC without claiming cop. Since I took her bait and defended a strategy that I thought had real merit. In fact, I still do, but I also think that strategies need to be vetted so that we only commit to something as risky as having a power role claim, we have thought through possible negative repercussions in case scum is trying to persuade us into making a bad choice. Because of this I think it makes sense that cop doesn't claim unless there's a general feeling by at least a majority of the people that it's the best strategy to use. Of course, there's also the possibility that scum sees the best strategy as the most threatening to them and is able to persuade people to not like it. For now, though, I still think it would be a good strategy but would like to know people's thoughts for or against this before a cop actually claims. Obviously, that can't be undone, so we need to make sure that it couldn't be used against us somehow.

Next, we need to do a careful read through to see what we can discover from e_e's posts now that we know for sure she was a werewolf. Did anyone support her thinking more than other people or turn on her only when it seemed like there was nothing else to do?

Of course, at least as important as finding e_e's partner, is deciding this: If we could figure out scum's roles, would it be better for us to kill a werewolf today or to find and lynch one of the mafia? I think there are strong arguments both ways:

In favor of a werewolf lynch:

We can permanently eliminate 1 NK. If the doctor was as effective as last night, that means we could even end up 4-2 tomorrow. With cop results today and tomorrow, we might also have two confirmed non-scum, or we might know one mafia, which swings things in our favor.

Also, e_e knew who her partner was, so it may be possible to use her posts to give us more information and therefore be more sure about a werewolf lynch than a mafia lynch.

Additionally, if we eliminate one faction, we can play a more confident FTC game, since the seer would no longer be at risk, and the mafia would have to eliminate the doctor before they could eliminate the cop, at which point we would likely have identified at least one mafia.

In favor of a mafia lynch:

While we would definitely have at least one NK tonight, there's at least a slim chance that werewolves and mafia take each other out and we end up with a town victory tomorrow. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I believe that (and I say this at risk of putting an NK target on my back, since it's one of the stronger opinions Misnomer expressed) it's in scum's interest to kill each other. In fact, maybe that's one reason why FTC is not the right move yet, because it increases scum's motivation to try to kill a cop or doctor rather than targeting the players who can get them killed during the day and during the night.

Anyways, I'm not convinced one way or the other on which faction we should hunt yet, so I'd like to see what other people think. Of course, we can't know for sure who scum is at this point, let alone which faction they belong to, so the point may be moot.

[Ibarra]

If the doctor was as effective as last night, that means we could even end up 4-2 tomorrow.

Why exactly are you sure that the doctor was successful at protecting someone last night?

Incidentally, I prefer a WW lynch today. One kill instead of two will really help the town.

[webby]

a-wan, you've focussed on the broader picture, so I'll include into some numbers.

If we lynch the werewolf, we have a situation where it's likely to be 3-2 tomorrow. This gives us decent, although not great, winning chances, but at least we don't get into a disastrous/losing position tonight. We do, however, only have 1/7 chance of hitting the werewolf by chance.

If we lynch mafia (2/7), it's then 4-1-1 with nightkill(s) to come.

The breakdown of where the kills hit:
2 town = 4/5*3/5 = 12/25 = 48%
1 town = 4/5*1/5 = 4/25 = 16%
1 town, 1 scum = 2*4/5*1/5 = 8/25 = 32%
2 scum = 1/5*1/5 = 1/25 = 4%

But if we still have a doctor around:
2 town = 12/25 *3/5 = 36/125 = 29%
1 town = 4/25 + 12/25 *2/5 + 8/25 *1/5 = 52/125 = 41%
1 town, 1 scum = 8/25 *3/5 = 24/125 = 19%
1 scum = 8/25*1/5 + 1/25*2/5 = 10/125 = 8%
2 scum = 1/25*3/5 = 3/125 = 2%

So the most likely scenarios are:
1. 3-1-1, which as I explained earlier is better than 3-2.
2. 2-1-1, which is effectively a loss - our only hope is to no-lynch and hope the scum kill each other.
3. 3-1, which is pretty good, especially as we'll have either one or two useful power roles left.

We basically have a 71% chance of reaching a good position if we can lynch mafia today. (And by good, I mean better than the 3-2 we'd get to by lynching a werewolf).

A mislynch today, however, is pretty dreadful - without doing the probabilities, I can see that they're still going to be highest around 1 town and 1 town, 1 scum, which means that we'll be at 2-1-1 or 2-2-1, both of which are practically lost - cop results won't count for much there.

So we have to hit one of the three scum today. Any ideas on how to go about it? In a normal game, I'd think with all townies having distinct roles, at LYLO, a massclaim would be the way to go, but here I'm not so sure.

Ibarra, the start of day flavour seems to imply 'mauled', rather than 'shot and mauled' as cjdrum was?

[webby]

And of course I forgot in the above analysis that we have a confirmed townie, but I don't think should change things too much except that we're helped in our choice of lynch target.

[roband]

If there was only 1 NK per night, I would be all for a mass claim right now.

All 3 anti-towns would probably claim vanilla townie and we'd be able to lynch one and and investigate one of the remaining three tomorrow, for almost guaranteed results.
As it is, with 2 NKs, we would likely lose one cop and the doctor, or both cops.

So no. Let's not do that yet.

And to throw my voice in the ring, lynching a werewolf today would be optimal, IMO.

And I think that JC is likely to be e_e's scum partner. Anyone have thoughts on that?

[a-wan]

If the doctor was as effective as last night, that means we could even end up 4-2 tomorrow.

Why exactly are you sure that the doctor was successful at protecting someone last night?

The first night, cjdrum was mauled and shot. Last night, Misnomer was only mauled. I assumed that meant he was killed by werewolves and that whoever the mafia killed was doctored, but I can see that there must be a number of different scenario, such as both scum factions and the doctor targeting Misnomer last night (and the mod interpreting the doctor to prevent the mafia kill but not WW), the mod trying to throw us off by only mentioning one type of kill, or the mafia being disinterested in this game and forgetting to send in an NK. Considering all those options, it still seems like the most likely scenario is that the mafia kill was doctored.

Anyways, that type of question seems more likely to put the doctor at risk rather than expose scum. Since both factions have some motivation to kill the doctor, the only situation that I think a doctor claim would be useful would be if both of the cops had claimed and we would like for the scum to both NK the doctor rather than kill either of the cops, but even that is risky.

Also, I like the idea of eliminating 1 NK, but I also find it a little troubling to think that if we lynch a WW today, we have to count on the doctor to avoid LYLO tomorrow, so I'm still undecided.

Ninja'd by Webby's much more thorough analysis. Of course, we haven't got a confirmed townie until everyone has posted without claiming cop. That means that we're still waiting for both JC and greenlover to weigh in. It would be helpful if they would do so, so we can add that to the information we currently have.

Ninja'd by roband. I thought at some point someone suggested that e_e might be trying to protect a misstep made by a more vocal partner, but I guess that was just speculation. JC did seem pretty quick to buy into e_e's attempt to throw us off using logic based on false premises, so that plus the lurking puts him on the scummier end of my list.

[a-wan]

EBWOP

A couple of quick additional thoughts, after reading Webby's post more carefully. A 71% chance of getting into a "good" position seems like the way to go, at least on the surface. I just wanted to add (making the ever-wrong assumptions of random NK and random doctor) that the probability of getting to 3-2 is 85% and the probability of getting to 4-2 is 15%. Both positions are all right (even at 3-2 we would either have the cop alive, the doctor alive, or both), though 4-2 would be much better.

Also, I think our chances of hitting werewolf are most certainly better than 1/7 (though, I know you didn't think they were 1/7). My point is, since there are still two mafia out there and we have the information from the fact that e_e was a werewolf, it will be easier to get a WW lynch than a mafia lynch (we'll be fighting against only one scum vote against the WW lynch).

So, I guess I'm still on the fence. I'm leaning towards searching for mafia, but lynching WW somehow seems like it would be easier. Lynching scum of any flavor is the minimum I guess. We may not be able to tell the difference anyway.

[greenlover]

Just a few quick thoughts now, I hope to make a more through post later. First, roband is pinging me like mad (but I haven't quite figured out why yet), second, assuming I'm a cop, I didn't receive a positive investigation result on Lorenz, and third, I'm not in favor of a lurker lynch when a mislynch almost insures a lost for town.

[Ibarra]

The first night, cjdrum was mauled and shot. Last night, Misnomer was only mauled. I assumed that meant he was killed by werewolves and that whoever the mafia killed was doctored, but I can see that there must be a number of different scenario, such as both scum factions and the doctor targeting Misnomer last night (and the mod interpreting the doctor to prevent the mafia kill but not WW), the mod trying to throw us off by only mentioning one type of kill, or the mafia being disinterested in this game and forgetting to send in an NK. Considering all those options, it still seems like the most likely scenario is that the mafia kill was doctored.

Yeah it does seem most likely in that situation, but how you worded what you typed initially without any previous explanation seemed like you were sure that the doctor was successful in protecting the target. The others before you expressed some doubt on whether or not the doctor successfully protected or not.
My line of thought was that only scum was a hundred percent sure that the doctor successfully protected somebody.

Anyways, that type of question seems more likely to put the doctor at risk rather than expose scum. Since both factions have some motivation to kill the doctor, the only situation that I think a doctor claim would be useful would be if both of the cops had claimed and we would like for the scum to both NK the doctor rather than kill either of the cops, but even that is risky.

From what I'm getting at you're saying that the question I asked risked exposing the doctor. I disagree. I've already explained my line of though above.

IGMEOY: a-wan
I would still want a-wan to be investigated.

roband:
I don't quite see the suspicion you have on JC. Sure he said he found you suspicious along with e_e, and e_e turned out werewolf later on, but I don't know if that in itself suspicious.

[roband]

I'm not in favor of a lurker lynch when a mislynch almost insures a lost for town.

roband:
I don't quite see the suspicion you have on JC. Sure he said he found you suspicious along with e_e, and e_e turned out werewolf later on, but I don't know if that in itself suspicious.

I simply find him most suspicious, right now. The potential linking of anyone, with e_e - plus the fact it was me he attempted to link. Just got to me a little more than anyone else I guess.

[a-wan]

I'm not sure what to make of your suspicions, Ibarra. The N0 victim was mauled and shot, while the N1 victim was only mauled.

Additionally, your first 'suspicion' of me was based on e_e's attempt to deflect suspicion from herself. At least, I have to conclude that's the basis of your suspicion since you were calling on either me or greenlover to be investigated. The reasons that I can see that you would be using e_e to reach this conclusion are:

1. If you're a non-investigative town role, you would have to believe that neither I nor greenlover is a cop. This is the logic e_e was hoping would succeed, but I have always maintained that cops shouldn't claim unless a majority of players agree with that action, as it is something that cannot be undone.

2. If you're a cop, in addition to overcoming the objection I raised in point (1), you'd have to somehow discount the likely possibility that one of us are the doctor. FTC gives the doctor a clear chance of taking advantage of their ability to protect a townie while helping to ensure that a doctor lives. FTC is a plan more likely to attract the doctor. Additionally, I think I showed rather strongly that FTC would benefit town and make things more difficult for scum, and no one has raised a single valid reason why it would not, therefore FTC is also more likely to be attractive to town in general than to scum. e_e based her logic on the hand-waving claim that FTC is somehow more beneficial to scum than to town, when it is clearly not (or if it is, then I don't see it and no one has found a valid weakness in my argument).

3. If you're scum, you obviously have a vested interest in convincing everyone that I'm scum. Of the two factions, WW would be the most likely to fall in line with e_e's intentionally misleading logic. Maybe you've already seen that doctor is most likely to want to use FTC, and therefore want to figure out which of us is most likely to be doctor as a doctor NK is guaranteed to succeed, which seems like the exact reason why Misnomer was mauled last night.

Anyways, as this is my first game of mafia, as I've said, I'm not sure what to make of your suspicions. I guess 1 and 3 seem like the most likely scenarios, as option 2 leaves more to overcome in order to be suspicious of me.

[Ibarra]

I should have made myself more clear.
My suspicion on you is no longer based on what e_e said.
roband clarified that for me.

My suspicion on you is now based on the fact that you said doctor was successful at protecting almost as if you were sure about it. And only scum is sure if a doctor is successful at protecting.

[roband]

I'll be honest, Ibarra, it looked to me like a successful doctoring too. And I pointed it out first, I believe.

Why are you pushing up on a-wan so hard here?

[roband]

EBWOP: Looking back, I never pointed it out, apparently. But I certainly thought it.

Still, I think a-wan's reasoning is perfectly acceptable.

[Ibarra]

Because I do find what he said suspicious. He just typed it as if he knew it was true already unlike the previous ones who posted.
(Not to mention my gut, but I can't reason with that)

I wasn't even pushing for a lynch on a-wan. I just wanted him to be investigated.
Come to think of it, why did he overreact with just an investigation proposal on him?

I might have made a mountain over an anthill, so I'll back down for now, but I still think he should be investigated.
I'm going to reread the thread now.

[a-wan]

As I've said before, if we knew who mafia was, I think I lean towards lynching mafia, but it's seeming very difficult at the moment to pinpoint exactly who might be mafia.

I think at least identifying who might be WW will help to narrow down who might be mafia, and since we have more information about WW at the moment then we do about mafia, maybe we can start there even if our goal is to lynch mafia today.

First of all, those who didn't vote in the lynch:

John Citizen cast an "unofficial" vote for e_e, but that's almost more scummy than not voting at all--it seems like he was waiting to see if there was a way around lynching his partner. He also voted to investigate Lorenz or Ibarra.

greenlover said he felt good about lynching e_e but also failed to actually cast the vote. He also came out against investigating Lorenz, which is looking like the right move now (unless JC says otherwise). I guess I feel less wary of greenlover because he liked FTC, but apparently that's supposed to make me more suspicious.

Those who voted for someone other than e_e:

e_e...obviously.

Webby voted for Lorenz but voted to investigate e_e. I guess in my mind it seems wanting to cop e_e makes him more townie, but at that point e_e already had at least one vote, so I suppose that could have been an effort to distance himself from her.

Those who voted for e_e:

roband was the first person to vote for her, though he did unvote, then re-vote. He voted to investigate Lorenz. Voting for e_e and to have Lorenz investigated looks pretty legitimate, especially since he was first (or second, depending on how you count the unvote).

I was second (or first) and also voted to investigate Lorenz.

Lorenz was third, though it seemed very much at the time that he was just trying to get someone lynched besides himself. He voted to investigate himself to clear himself of charges.

Ibarra was the last vote cast for e_e and voted to investigate Lorenz. Their warning scared people off from hammering, I think, so we lynched with plurality rather than majority.

As far as WW goes I think the candidates are (from most to least likely):

1. JC (sorry, I think lurker lynch might make sense in this case, since lurking here seems more like scum strategy than apathy)
2. greenlover
3. webby
4. Ibarra
5. roband

In my mind, JC seemed more willing to go along with e_e's explanation of events than others, and it looked like he was trying very hard not to vote for her at the end. I only put greenlover so high based on the conspicuous no vote, otherwise he would have been much lower. I might be inclined to switch webby and Ibarra on this list based on Ibarra buying into e_e's logic and on the fact that they advocated people declaring who specifically the cop should investigate and who the seer should investigate (scum would like this tactic as it would allow them to slip their name on the wrong list and end up half-confirmed town), and I've generally found webby's posts to be townie.

[Lorenz]

Well, I had my thought and by re-reading them they have been flipped somehow.

I'm also leaning to a JC lynch. He is the one I'm getting most pings out of. He could have hammered e_e to try and distance himself from her, so I'm uncertain as to wether he is WW. However, I find it quite likely for him to be either WW of mafia, trying to stay under the radar. Hoping for more posts.

The discussion between a-wan and ibarra looks like town-on-town to me. No real concerns for any of them.
a-wan seems solid all around, and I would object copping them.
I would not object copping Ibarra, but I would not push it either. (Ibarra seems solid, but I get a few pings every now and then questioning myself if they just wanted to distance themselves from e_e seeing it inevitable, but I doubt it. It's probably because of their original vote on me.)

Roband was the main man leading to the e_e lynch *high fives*.

Greenlover... not much to make of it, but this post will help me explain my feeling.

Well, I'm feeling pretty good about lynching E_E, but I won't vote her yet, as we still have time.

I don't feel that investigating Lorenz is a good idea ('cause I doubt he is scum), but w/e.

So... The most obvious thing in everyones mind was that I was in some faction with e_e (that's the way I perceived it, is it right?). Reading back I WAS playing quite scummy, but mostly because of a wrong belief on what strategy was right. IF greenlover is WW, they'd have known e_e was werewolf and so, that I wasn't a faction with e_e. The investigation would turn me out as town and e_e as WW and greenlover could point out that they were right.
So...
FoS: Greenlover.

so, I'm still to say something on webby. Well, I don't have much of a read. Has commented a lot on probabilities and I can see how he could have voted for me, as we went for a few posts discussing what I believed to be the right strategy. I guess I wouldn't mind and investigation here either, but wouldn't push it.

If deadline was close, I would cast a vote to Greenlover and an investigation vote to JC. As it's still early and we need more posts, I wont.

[greenlover]

K, sorry for the wait, I finally got the time make a post worth its salt now.

Roband has been pinging me for some reason for a while now, and I think I have finally figured out why. But first, a good analysis is always a nice thing to have. Spoiled for length:

Spoiler:

Post 1: Points out that following the cop/seer isn't going to work, because people aren't cleared by a single investigation; and that if the scum don't hit each other with their kills, it is likely that we will lose. This is all true, but - as he also pointed out - obvious. However, he purpose in posting it was to stimulate discussion, so I'm giving it a towny lean.

Post 2: States that we can't trust single investigations. Considering he just said that in his previous post, I find this post strange, but not all that scummy.

Post 3: Presents his original plan. Not going to comment on the plan's scummyness for wine reasons.

Post 4: Agrees that his plan could have some flaws, but doesn't want to do the math. Understandable. Neutral.

Post 5: Asks for someone to run the numbers on his plan. Considering his previous post, understandable. Neutral.

Post 6: Concedes that his plan does have a few problems, says that Lorenz and Ibarra's modifications on his plan are both bad, and FoS's e_e. I get a generally towny feeling from this.

Post 7: Defends his plan. Again, not going to comment on it's scummyness for wine reasons.

Post 8: Proves that his original plan is better than either variation proposed by Ibarra or Lorenz. Again, not commenting on scummyness for wine reasons.

Post 9: Says that roles won't be revealed until morning. Neutral.

Post 10: At first misunderstands my plan, but - via a ebwop - realizes his misunderstood. Strange, but not exactly scummy.

Post 11: Probably his most towny post. He is the first to vote for e_e (IIRC), while nominating webby for investigation. Also corrects his formatting via a ebwop.

Post 12: Misunderstands a-wan's plan. Strange, but not scummy.

Post 13: Reiterates his (now modified) plan, and says that we should accept it because its simple. I get a more scummy feeling from this post.

Post 14: Counters e_e's plan. Not going to comment on scummyness for wine reasons (again).

Post 15: Says that he is still voting for e_e. Neutral.

Post 16: Mounts a pretty large attack on Lorenz, who - by in his own words - was acting pretty scummily. Still, I'm getting a mafioso vib.

Post 17: meta comment about webby. Normally, I would call this a scummy non-post, but we are talking about Roband here. Neutral.

Post 18: Unvotes e_e, but still thinks that they are scummy. Doesn't know which of Lorenz and e_e to vote for. There is nothing new here, honestly. The fact that he suspects e_e is good, but he already was doing that. However, then he says that we shouldn't lynch e_e, but instead investigate her. I don't really like that last part, honestls. Thus, a very slight scummy lean here.

Post 19: Confirms that he wants to lynch Lorenz and investigate e_e, and addresses another issue with his plan. Nothing new here, except for stuff I'm not going to address for wine reasons.

Post 20: Another post expressing his disagreement, but no new reasons. Basically, a classic non-post that would be scummy if we weren't talking about Roband. Thus, neutral.

Post 21: Points out flaws in e_e's logic, and again advocates investigating e_e that night.

Post 22:Another round of attack against e_e. Its towny that he was attacking e_e, but that's old news by this time. Nothing about this post itself is all that towny. Thus, neutral.

Post 23:Refutes a meta attack. The attack itself was scummy, honestly, but that's for another analysis. However, the action of refuting a meta attack isn't towny or scummy. Thus, neutral.

Post 24:Defends his attack on e_e. Again, nothing new here. Neutral.

Post 25: Says that e_e's logic isn't that useful. That had been pretty well established by that time. Neutral.

Post 26: Says that we should investigate Lornez and lynch e_e. Towny, considering how things turned out.

Post 27:Another attack on e_e. Votes for e_e again. Is confused by one of e_e's comments. Getting a towny vib cause of the vote.

Post 28:Points out consensus for a investigation on Lornez, and refutes e_e. Not commenting on the first part for wine reasons, and the second part is pretty old now. Neutral.

Post 29:Says that he is feeling pretty good about a e_e lynch, but not as good about a Lornez investigation. Pretty old stuff by this point. Neutral.

Post 30:Defends investigating Lornez. Considering that he was defending against me, I'm not going to comment on the scummyness of this post.

Post 31:Says not to hammer because we haven't heard from JC yet. Solid towny lean imo.

Post 32:Continues to attack e_e. Neutral.

Post 33:Tells JC to hammer. Neutral.

Post 34: Wants the night to start. He wasn't alone in that feeling, so neutral.

Post 35:Says that the deadline is in 15 minutes, and refutes e_e. Neutral.

I walked away from re-reading D1 feeling pretty good about Roband. A lot of towny stuff, and almost definitely not a werewolf. Still, I see absolutely nothing in there that would stop him from being a mafioso. Still, no big deal. Now, D2:

Post 36: Says that the result on e_e was great, and that only one night kill was also great. Apparently thinks that the flavor doesn't tell us who undertook which nk, which I find rather strange and a slight mafioso tell.

Post 37: Doesn't understand what Lornez doesn't get, and heads to bed. Pretty neutral.

Post 38: Doesn't know what to make of e_e's posts upon a re-read. I've not undertaken a re-read of e_e's post yet, so I can't comment on this.

Post 39:Says that we can use e_e's logic to find the mafioso's, since it was in her interests to lynch the mafia. This ignores the flaws in e_e's logic, the additional flaw since e_e wasn't mafia, and the fact that Misnomer was town. Additionally says that JC is scummy for saying that Roband is scummy. Wut. Slightly OMGUS here (since one of the folks he casting doubt on is me), but I'm getting bad vibs from this post. Scummy.

Post 40:Says that we shouldn't massclaim right now. Slightly out of the blue, considering no one to my knowledge has advocated such a thing. I haven't really examined what he said logically (give me a break, guys, I'm doing a post by post analysis of Roband here!), but the fact he preempted something that wasn't even suggested pings me a bit. A scummy lean on this one.

Post 41: Defends his suspicion of JC by calling it basically a gut feeling. Not too happy about this post either.

Post 42: Says that the kill story looks like a successful doctoring, and says that that is what he thought it was when he made his original post. However, that contracts with this

And only one NK too, so either both factions targetted the same person or we had a successful doctor.

Thus, I am getting bad vibs from this post as well.

The feel I'm getting from re-reading D2 (at least, D2 up to this point), is that Roband is almost certainly not a werewolf, but has been dropping several mafioso tells, to the point of where I think its more likely that he is a mafioso than a towny.

Thus, I think Roband is likely mafioso. Therefore, FoS: Roband.

Also Ibarra has been pinging me, but that's mostly a gut feeling. Thus, IGMEOY: Ibarra

Finally, it appears as though folks think I'm a werewolf. I can understand were a-wan is coming from on this (funny how that works out. every. time.), but I don't get Lornez reason. I didn't want to investigate Lornez yesterday, thus I must be a werewolf trying to gain towny cred? But wait, if I had wanted to investigate you, you could argue that I was a werewolf who was trying to get town to waste an investigation, or that I was a werewolf who thought that you were mafia. I honestly don't see how I can win here.

[greenlover]

ebwob: I started working on that analysis two hours ago, btw.

Roband, you post too much. / half joking

[roband]

Greenlover, if I planned to be awake for much more than an hour, I'd be tearing your analysis of me apart.

As it is, that will have to wait until tomorrow, but most of your scummy points on me are bullshit.
Mainly the fact that you say no-one mentioned a massclaim before I did... Webby mentioned it in the very post before mine. I was simply giving my thoughts, as requested.

More to come...

[greenlover]

Mainly the fact that you say no-one mentioned a massclaim before I did... Webby mentioned it in the very post before mine. I was simply giving my thoughts, as requested.

He did?

Ah, indeed he did. Right here:

In a normal game, I'd think with all townies having distinct roles, at LYLO, a massclaim would be the way to go, but here I'm not so sure.

I missed that part of his post. Thanks for pointing that out. Point conceded.

Also, I look forward to your refutation. I hope you rip it to shreds, honestly.

[webby]

So of the five players left in the game that aren't me or Lorenz, I previously put them in the order:
1. roband
2. a-wan
3. Ibarra
4. greenlover
5. John Citizen

Haven't really seen any reason to change my mind yet. I'm obviously getting less confident on townie reads now that I know there are three scum in that list. In fact, a big problem is that it's easy for scum to look like town in this game by hunting the opposing faction.

I'm not convinced by greenlover's analysis.

Right now, I would go with voting for John Citizen and investigating Ibarra. I think with not much to go on, and with not many real scum tells from the remaining players, I'll take a lurker lynch. It's more likely to hit scum than miss, right?

[roband]

I'm ill, so won't be analysing your analysis right now, greenlover. Maybe later

[John Citizen]

I'd say that, from the debate, at least one of roband and e_e is scum, if not both.

it strikes me that JC (lurky = scummy when we're effectively at LYLO, btw) could be attempting to tie my alignment to e_e's, when I think it's pretty clear that I've been acting in the best interests of town all game.

Thus, I would say that JC is most scummy right now. Yes it's OMGUS, but why else would someone be trying to link me to e_e?

To clarify what I said earlier, the "at least" was critical. I essentially was saying that I didn't think that you were both town. Ordinarily, I'd think that your alignments would be opposing but as there are two scum teams, it is unclear whether you would be town or mafia. Also, I feel that that second comment ("the best interests of town") seems quite winey to me.

John Citizen cast an "unofficial" vote for e_e, but that's almost more scummy than not voting at all--it seems like he was waiting to see if there was a way around lynching his partner. He also voted to investigate Lorenz or Ibarra.

Considering that there was a "do not hammer" in large text, and everyone was stating not to hammer, I thought it prudent not to hammer. I don't really see the point in hammering when it was clear that e_e was going to be lynched anyway.

Ibarra feels somewhat scummy for bringing up the votes to L-1, where scum could easily hammer.

I don't see why it is scummy at all.
I'm suspicious of e_e and want her to be lynched, so I voted her.
But I do not want a hammer yet as we have time, so I wrote the warning.
If someone does hammer even after I wrote the warning, he/she would be the object of suspicion.

I don't think that it was a good strategy to bring it to L-1. If scum had hammered, e_e had flipped town, and there were two town NKs, there would be a 2-2-2 split, which would have been near-impossible to win from.

Overall, based on general feelings, I'd say:

TOWN
webby
greenlover
a-wan
roband
Ibarra
SCUM

Webby townie as he is providing a lot of content and analysis.
Greenlover leaning town; he has analysed roband, and is providing original opinions as opposed to yes-manning. I'll look more closely at the analysis later.
A-wan neutral leaning town from an decent amount of content and discussion.
Roband neutral from a lot of discussion, but some of it scummy/winey.
Ibarra leaning scum for tactics that seem anti-town.

I'll elaborate and revise these for my next post.

[Ibarra]

I don't think that it was a good strategy to bring it to L-1. If scum had hammered, e_e had flipped town, and there were two town NKs, there would be a 2-2-2 split, which would have been near-impossible to win from.

Your argument is based on the assumption that e_e would flip town. At that point I was confident that e_e would turn out scum. The only reason why I warned against another vote was because it would be the hammer and it would end the day and discussion prematurely.
Let me ask you then. When do you think is it not a bad idea to place someone at L-1 barring any info from power roles?

[John Citizen]

I don't think that it was a good strategy to bring it to L-1. If scum had hammered, e_e had flipped town, and there were two town NKs, there would be a 2-2-2 split, which would have been near-impossible to win from.

Your argument is based on the assumption that e_e would flip town. At that point I was confident that e_e would turn out scum. The only reason why I warned against another vote was because it would be the hammer and it would end the day and discussion prematurely.
Let me ask you then. When do you think is it not a bad idea to place someone at L-1 barring any info from power roles?

That makes more sense to me now. Still, the opportunity was still there for scum to cut off discussion. They may have ended under suspicion, but by that point it could have been too late.

To answer your question, I believe placing someone at L-1 is beneficial when most of the discussion had been completed, and the town/scum ratio is closer to being in town's favour.

[Ibarra]

That makes more sense to me now. Still, the opportunity was still there for scum to cut off discussion. They may have ended under suspicion, but by that point it could have been too late.

How could it be too late? We would have lynched scum which is what town is supposed to do. The quickhammer only points out a suspicious target for the next day's lynching.

To answer your question, I believe placing someone at L-1 is beneficial when most of the discussion had been completed, and the town/scum ratio is closer to being in town's favour.

Well the discussion was more or else finished at that time when I voted L-1. People were more or else agreeing to the e_e lynch. We already picked up a suitable investigation target. My text was just there for any additional discussion. Are you saying that when I voted e_e, most of the discussion was still not over?
About the town/scum ratio. You're also saying then it is bad to place someone at L-1 during the Day 1 of this game?

Current Town to Scum reads.
Lorenz - confirmed townie - no investigation claim
webby - good post/analysis + gut
greenlover - nothing pinging me that much = roband - nothing pinging me that either, but how they are arguing amongst themselves I would say that one is trying to implicate the other. || I think that greenlover and roband are definitely in different factions.
a-wan - issue about the doctor successfully protected implication
JC - uses not-so-good logic to try to accuse me.

I won't vote just yet.

[a-wan]

Just a few quick points.

It seems obvious that Ibarra and JC are different factions. Either that or a good mafia pairing that are distancing themselves from each in case one of them is lynched or investigated.

Ibarra may be right that roband and greenlover are different factions, though I'm less certain of that. Especially since I'm starting to distrust Ibarra, so maybe he or she (which is it?) is trying to encourage distrust between them.

JC's explanation for his non-vote yesterday is plausible and almost believable, but really he was the only one who hadn't contributed at all, so he had plenty of fodder with which to form an opinion and vote--there really was no good content afterwards. That, coupled with his lurking makes me feel confident enough in his scumminess, so I

Vote John Citizen

Ibarra has gone back and forth as far as scumminess for me and has been on one side or the other in the accusations, so I nominate Ibarra to be investigated so we can clear up a lot of the confusion.

[roband]

Ok, so greenlover's scummy points against me:

Point 13 - I was simply annoyed that people didn't seem to be getting my reasons, which I thought (and still think) was the best way to proceed. Like, I was certain.

Point 18 - I have been pretty trusting of webby this whole game. I wanted to make sure we had a unanimous agreement on which of e_e and lorenz to lynch/investigate.

Point 36 - I didn't read the flavour all the way through. That's all I can attribute that post to. I see your point, and concede it, but it's minor.

Point 39 - I admitted that the OMGUS aspect was a big part of my reasoning. I did not say I wanted to vote JC, I said that he seemed most scummy to me right now. Also, using e_e's logic might not be able to help us investigate now, but it might help us link players to her.

Point 40 - I addressed already. You apologised already.

Point 42 - Again, I've addressed this already. I may be misremembering, but at the start of the day, before anyone else bought it up, I definitely had a thought that the doctor had been scucessful. I do not recall if it was as I made my first post of the day, or at some point after that.


So, that's 6 points. I accept 2 of them.

Over 42 posts (I suspect I am the most active player in this game), that's not a lot. Yeah, I rush. Yeah, I don't read things as much as I should. But I'm not scum.

My scum--town feelings are as follows:

JC, Ibarra, greenlover=a-wan, webby, Lorenz

Basically everyone who's not JC looks pretty townie to me.
Ibarra strikes me as potentially trying to distance from players. But not sure on that currently. It doesn't make sense to distance from 2 different people...
Greenlover's analysis annoyed me, mainly because of all the wine he's scared to spill. If you don't like my ideas on strategy - say why. But no reads other than that.
a-wan seems to be giving some good ideas, backing it up with good reasons.
webby is a solid player. Always seems town to me [ ] but I'm pretty sure on that here.

Other than that, nothing new.

[webby]

Just a quick post for now, don't like going a day without posting.

We have about 1.5 days until deadline. I'm actually struggling with this game - no real confidence on my reads. I think it's easy for one scum faction to hide by hunting for the other one.

I'm not particularly convinced by greenlover's attack on roband, but I'm not sure if it's scummy - the analysis looked like a genuine attempt at finding scum.

So overall I'm going to say that my current most two scummy players are John Citizen and Ibarra, so sometime tomorrow (rather than now to stop any possibility of a speedlynch) I'm going to vote for John Citizen unless I can be convinced otherwise.

I would like Ibarra investigated, but would be fine with a greenlover investigation as well.

[Ibarra]

I'm fine with being investigated. (Though as I've said, I would prefer an investigation on a-wan).
I'm also planning to vote for JC. He hasn't answered my rebuttals yet either.

[roband]

I hate to be following on from everyone, but a JC vote and Ibarra investigation look favourite to me too.

I will vote later tonight.

[Lorenz]

I've gone over the thread many times, and I just get more confused every time. JC does seem like the best vote, and I'm not entirely sure of Ibarra being investigated.
Vote: JC

Investigate: Greenlover

[Lorenz]

Sooner rather than later

[roband]

So, erm yeah.

Instead of staying in and posting last night, I went out.

Vote: JC
Investigate Ibarra

[John Citizen]

I have very little time at the moment, but it seems necessary to claim this:

I am the cop.

[roband]

Unvote

to get us away from L-1

[roband]

So now we need to wait for everyone to post, to ensure we don't have a counter claim.

There's not one coming from me, by the way. And deadline is what, about 12 hours away? Awesome.