Death to the Conspiracy! Game over, town wins!

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Death to the Conspiracy! Game over, town wins!

Postby Elvish Pillager » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:02 pm UTC

Death to the Conspiracy

"ALRIGHT, THE GAME'S UP! COME OUT WITH YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR!"

It has been a long and arduous journey, but it is nearing its end. The ancient alien crash site that the government tried to cover up is less than a day's journey away. All you need to do is get there alive, and you can sieze the ancient alien artifacts and use their powers to break the government's chokehold over the will of the populace.

But it's not easy being among the few who know the truth. And their agents are everywhere. Even among your own ranks.

You look to your left. You look to your right. You know they're there among you. But on this day, your weapons will be bathed in the conspirators' blood. Well, the bullets, anyway. This is a setting with guns, after all. And I'm not sure they guns themselves will actually get blood on them. The bullets will though. Unless you get astronomically unlucky. But anyway, you've already shot the guy who yelled the line at the beginning of this block of flavor, so his bullet-riddled body definitely counts.


Hang on a minute. Shouldn't I be writing this from a scum POV? Since they're the majority of the players?

You were carefully selected for this job. You've all busted cults like this one before. But this one has been especially tricky to inflitrate. They're all incredibly paranoid. It's like they think *everyone* is an enemy agent. Well, notwithstanding the fact that they're almost right...

You look to your left. You look to your right. You know exactly who your allies are, and you're confident you have the upper hand this time. Well, except that they've already shot that nameless agent who yelled the line at the beginning of the flavor. That could be a bit of a setback. You'd better conduct the rest of your operation in a more subtle fashion.

Or it's... Death to the Conspiracy!


Rules (read them carefully, a bunch are non-standard)

1. There are two factions: "town" and "scum". Everyone is in one of those factions. The scum win if they kill all the town. The town win if they kill all the scum and at least one townie survives. The game ends as soon as one of those happens, or as soon as it's completely inevitable which one will happen first. Those two possibilities are a disjoint cover, i.e. it's guaranteed that exactly one of them will happen in a finite amount of time, and hence there are no other special endgame rules. The scum start the game with a majority; i.e. with 15 players, there are at least 8 scum, and no more than 7 town. Every member of the "scum" faction knows who all the other scum are; every member of the "town" faction is a vigilante, i.e. they can kill someone each night, and the vigilantes can even kill on the night they're lynched. There are no other faction powers (i.e. the scum don't have a nightkill or chat.)

2. Each game day, you decide on somebody to lynch. Someone will always be lynched each day - you can't choose not to lynch - and there are no vote-affecting or lynch-affecting abilities in the game. If there's no majority by the deadline, then the lynch will be decided by plurality. If there's a tie, it will be decided at random, except that town will always be lynched before scum, because the lynch is the scum's main weapon. The town are also not permitted to decide the lynch based on the player order, cryptography, or any other external source of randomness. You're supposed to vote for who you think is scum.

Just for flavor, I'm going to call the game days "hours", and the night phases the "firefight phase" instead of the normal terminology.

Spoiler'd for rambling about something you're not allowed to do anyway:
Spoiler:
Yeah, cryptography can make un-manipulable random numbers for a group of people who don't trust each other. First, each person chooses a random bit string, then adds salt, then takes a cryptographic hash of it. Then everybody posts their hash, which doesn't give any information about what bits you started with. Then everybody posts their bit-string-plus-salt and everybody else verifies that it matches the hash. Then you XOR all the bit strings together. If you take *any* bit-string and XOR it with a new totally random string, it's totally random, so this gives pure random numbers as long as a *single* player actually chose random numbers - so if you know that you did choose randomly, then you know that the result hasn't been manipulated, even if you suspect that every other player is conspiring against you.


3. Since the game will probably have deadline lynches, I'll set specific rules for deadlines. The default deadline for each day will be two weeks after the day starts. If discussion dies down before that, I'll push it forward. Vote-switching just before the deadline is not a legitimate tactic in this game; if a player changes their vote, and that vote changes who has plurality or is tied for plurality, I'll push the deadline forward to at least 48 hours after the change. (Don't abuse that rule to extend the deadline indefinitely. Just don't.) Deadlines are inexact; I'll accept votes made slightly after the deadline if I don't get there first.

Each night phase will be limited to around 72 hours, but nights will end as soon as all actions are in. You may queue your actions before the night begins if you wish.

4. Some of the players are "power roles" with additional abilities. None of them are ridiculously complex, and the game contains no bastardry (unless you think that the setup itself is bastardly, but that can't be helped :P).

5. The people who die, either by the lynch or by night kills, will have their roles revealed on the following morning, including their exact powers.

6. This isn't a rule, but if the town picks a player order and instructs each player to kill the next player on the list, then the town will almost certainly lose. Be wary of claiming your targets before the night.

7. If you think you might want to replace in, sign up as a replacement now. I won't go looking for extra replacements if too many people drop the game, because this setup already has so many kills that a few modkills won't hurt much. (Right now, it looks like we have plenty of replacements, but I don't want to jinx it. :x)

8. The vanilla town role PM looks like this:

Elvish Pillager wrote:You are Vanilla Town.

You may kill another player each night. If you're lynched, you can still kill on that night.


Role PMs are going out now. I will begin Day 1 once they're all out.

Players

1. John Citizen
2. NecklaceOfShadow existential_elevator
3. Misnomer
4. webby
5. Chandani Ibarra
6. more_people
7. softchews
8. a-wan
9. weiyaoli
10. Lorenz
11. jayhsu
12. Sruixan
13. Not A Raptor
14. Dr Ug

Replacements

None.


(Original lists, just for the record)
Spoiler:
Players

1. John Citizen (this transforms my entire perception of mafia)
2. NecklaceOfShadow (Because... why not? I think I might be able to handle a mafia game this time.)
3. Misnomer (I really shouldn't sign up to another game... but this setup is too cool to miss)
4. webby (I always seem to be town (7/8 from completed games and the other was independent), maybe this game will give me a chance to be scum!)
5. Hausdog (Nimen hao)
6. Chandani
7. more_people (yeah, back now from holiday. Sorry, it was ... unexpected)
8. softchews (I got the rules open, I'm taking the plunge. What could possibly go wrong...)
9. a-wan
10. weiyaoli
11. Lorenz
12. Jay (let's get one more)
13. Sruixan (I am so ridiculously out of practice it won't even be funny, but heck, I guess I'll give it a shot...)
14. Not A Raptor (Eh, why not?)
...
21. Dr Ug (isn't shy about being the 21st player. Also, Hi everybody)

Replacements

1. existential_elevator
2. Ibarra (Just realized I'm in two games already. Sorry. Moving to replacements)
3. cellery (As determined as I might be to start, I figure this is probably a smarter move for now.)
Last edited by Elvish Pillager on Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:05 pm UTC, edited 10 times in total.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Pre-game: Alien Artifacts!

Postby Elvish Pillager » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:39 pm UTC

Oh, how silly of me. I almost forgot to start the day.

Hour 1 begins! Start lynching!

The tentative deadline will be two weeks from this post, or around UTC 16:00 on Monday, August 15.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:08 pm UTC

I'd probably say there are around 9 scum. Obviously there are more than 2 town (as scum can just bandwagon and lynch both town). I think this would rule out just 3 town too:

12s/3t, lynch 12s/2t, 3 correct kills, 9s/2t, lynch town, 9s/1t, 2 correct kills, 7s/1t, lynch town, 7s/0t

Also rules out 4 town only but possibly this could be the set-up if the additional powers help town in some way to kill or avoid the lynch (e.g. pardoner? extra vig kills?)
11s/4t, 11s/3t, 7s/3t, 7s/2t, 4s/2t, 4s/1t, 2s/1t, 2s/0t

Absolutely maximum scum seems to be 10. Anyone find anything wrong with this reasoning?
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:41 pm UTC

10 max seems right. 8 scum seems like it would be too low, unless scum has some pretty good powers, though I'm new enough to this that I don't know what powers could possibly make 8-7 balanced.

Before this started I thought I had a good strategy figured out until I saw this:

Elvish Pillager wrote:6. This isn't a rule, but if the town picks a player order and instructs each player to kill the next player on the list, then the town will almost certainly lose. Be wary of claiming your targets before the night.

I understand how the player order trick could lead to town losing, but I had a strategy in mind that had everyone essentially claiming their targets before the firefight. If we all picked targets, then adjusted our targets based on who everyone picked, it seemed like we could maximize our chances of winning.

We need to be able to kill as many scum each night as possible. If we all end up targeting the same person, then we are effectively losing 4 to 6 kills. But if we all make sure we are targeting different people, and if everyone is reasonably happy with the person they are targeting, then:

1. We maximize the kills.
2. We know who wasn't killed during the night, and therefore who scum is.

Obviously EP knows more about this than I do, so I'd appreciate it if someone could explain why this wouldn't work.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Misnomer » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:23 pm UTC

Ermm... if the mod has told us to be wary of declaring our targets, I think we should be wary. This isn't a bastard game after all, so we should be able to trust the mod's advice as sound. Unless there's some golden plan that guarantees us a load of dead agents, I don't think we should discuss who we're personally going to kill.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:32 pm UTC

Yes, the mod told us not to. I just thought it would be good to see what reasons people would come up with for not doing that. For one thing, I'd like to see a good reason not to do it (maybe the mod's wrong), but I also think it might generate content so I can make a decision about who I think is a part of which faction.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby softchews » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:06 pm UTC

I say agree with the mod. If he is saying not to announce night kill targets or use a list, and assuming he is not going to lie to us (why would he?), then there will probably be some good reason as to why not to. My guess is a good amount of protective scum rolls, ready to take out people who attack obvious targets. Or just that the probabilities of doing random killing leave very little chance to get them all.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:46 pm UTC

Right. Scum powers would definitely throw that off. Never mind then.

I can't think of any obvious strategies that don't involve waiting to see the lynch vote

Obviously, scum will be shy about voting, since voting for a lynch is basically a scum tell in this set up. One thing that we can do to help ourselves is make sure that scum never gets to lynch with a plurality. We need to always force a majority in order to lynch. That means that we should always have at least two people on the chopping block at the same time. If one person receives a vote, another person should also get a vote until scum either backs off because they know their voting for scum, or they go all the way and we have a list of targets for the firefight.

There are a few details to work out, like how to guarantee that we get at least one scum that we're voting for, but if we are able to do that, hopefully we'll be able to find people that just seem hard to lynch (meaning they're scum) or we'll see people that seem to collect votes faster (meaning they're town). In the end, it's probably impossible to prevent town from being lynched today, but if we can collect enough information based on the lynchers and the lynchees, we may have a reasonable chance of targeting scum for NKs and not each other.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby jayhsu » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:08 pm UTC

I'm still getting used to the rules and ramifications - I'll try to post more tomorrow morning. I see the appeal of why we might want to claim our firefight kills, and thus understand why the mod has implied there are mechanisms to defeat that particular strategy.
-Jay
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Sruixan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:28 pm UTC

I too shall post come the morning; I'm not really one for late night logic and since it looks like there's some strategising to be done, I'd rather attack it with a clear head than just flop around spurting out ineffectual garbage (which is admittedly something I am wont to do anyway...). Unsurprisingly, the idea of claiming kill targets had also occured to me (quite the echo in here, hey?), but I suppose the mod was bound to put measures in place to hinder it. I don't suppose there's a more cunning way of doing things with similar gain, is there? I'm still not quite sure what that might entail, especially since we can't know for certain exactly what EP has done to the game to work against the strategy, but it doesn't hurt to consider it, I should think...
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Lorenz » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:47 pm UTC

a-wan's strategy is worth considering. I haven't detected any major setbacks but I'm not convinced yet. I don't have any better plans at the moment.

Actually...

Vote: Weiyaoli
Why not. They could be scum (Just as anyone else)
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:02 pm UTC

That plan sounds like it would fall apart quickly if scum decide to distance a little D1 by slowly gathering up votes for a town candidate. Also since scum have a majority, it effectively ensures that town will be lynched D1 and since for N1 we don't get the flip information either (since roles are revealed the following morning) I don't see how that would help for the firefight.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:12 pm UTC

Truthfully, it seems like scum will almost always be able to ensure a town lynch. The only way I see a scum lynch happening (without a cop to indicate someone is scum) is if we get scum to split between two different people (one of them being scum), then quickly add town votes on the scum. It seems nearly impossible.

The worst part about a strategy that tricks scum to vote for scum is that we then can't trust the vote counts to provide enough information to tell us who we should target for NK.

Just to keep people honest (and until we back off this strategy, which seems inevitable):

Vote: Lorenz
He was the first to vote on lynch, so that makes him as good a candidate as any.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Sruixan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:30 pm UTC

So I couldn't sleep because I was to busy thinking about this game. I can't pretend I didn't see that coming...

Let's say the worst case scenario is 5t 10s, based on weiyaoli's analysis (4t 11s doesn't sound likely; even if the town have powers to help, there's still the probability of scum powers that would hinder the town). Let's also say that we ignore the mod's advice and follow the predetermined kill method. We construct a list via some means free of bias, which I expect would involve something objective like join dates or similar. That night, there are five guaranteed kills, without any overlap, but that doesn't mean five deaths. As softchews proposed, scum protective roles would prevent what kills they could, leaving us worse off. What you would get is a couple of deaths, which would confirm a handful of townies, but leave the remaining playerbase uncleared. I dunno what would be a reasonable number of mafia protectives, but I should think you'd get three deaths and townies linked to each of those. Though then again, there's the possibility that town might kill other town...

What interests me is what happens with the confirmed townies; from that moment on, they are only killable via speedlynch. It's at this point at which I could really do with a spreadsheet (note to self: get myself something from the app store sometime), because I get the feeling that with the right numbers the mafia could still carry out speedlynching without guaranteed failure. It's too late for my brain to handle the numbers, I think...

But (and this is actually the entire reason I decidedly to screw sleeping and pick up the iPad in the first place and it's taken me this long to get to it...), a far more effective way to stop the targeted kill method would be with a scum redirect power, allowing them to both kill off townies with their own side's kills and then have a situation whereby either them or one of their scumbuddies could claim responsibility for it. The prospect scares me somewhat, and whether or not it is actually a practical inclusion is not something I'm currently in a state to think about, but gut feeling says it might be a tad too complex. Just putting it out there, though...

Also the AutoCorrect function on this thing went crazy on the last couple of sentences and I worry that I might not have noticed it having an effect on other parts of this post so if it has I do apologise but at a half past midnight I can't be arsed to check.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Lorenz » Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:35 pm UTC

Once again, the mod has warned us no to do that. I see no reason to go against the mods advice and it seems like doing so will only go against town. Proposing such schemes can only be good for scum, especially for a scum who has a power that knows will counter the proposal.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby more_people » Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:52 pm UTC

Lorenz wrote:Once again, the mod has warned us no to do that. I see no reason to go against the mods advice and it seems like doing so will only go against town. Proposing such schemes can only be good for scum, especially for a scum who has a power that knows will counter the proposal.

I agree with Lorenz. We know that scum have majority so it would be likely that they will be trying to create a strategy for town to follow.
Because of this, I think we shouldn't come up with a plan because scum could manipulate it against us.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Sruixan » Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:53 pm UTC

Lorenz wrote:Once again, the mod has warned us no to do that. I see no reason to go against the mods advice and it seems like doing so will only go against town. Proposing such schemes can only be good for scum, especially for a scum who has a power that knows will counter the proposal.
Well then excuse me for being a stubborn mule who won't take anything to heart without trying it out for himself. Would you prefer me to keep it to myself from now on, or given that I've yet to properly propose such a scheme and am in part trying to figure out information abou the setup by (ab)using the very fact we're not supposed to have a system, shall I just do it very, very quietly?

Also I need to sleep. Maybe if I say that enough times I might actually do so somewhen soon...
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Hausdog » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:33 am UTC

softchews wrote:I say agree with the mod. If he is saying not to announce night kill targets or use a list, and assuming he is not going to lie to us (why would he?), then there will probably be some good reason as to why not to. My guess is a good amount of protective scum rolls, ready to take out people who attack obvious targets. Or just that the probabilities of doing random killing leave very little chance to get them all.

OK I'm just now starting to read the thread but I passed your avatar and made a little girl squeal at how cute it is. It's just so unbearably precious :3 :3 :3
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby more_people » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:37 am UTC

Hausdog wrote:
softchews wrote:I say agree with the mod. If he is saying not to announce night kill targets or use a list, and assuming he is not going to lie to us (why would he?), then there will probably be some good reason as to why not to. My guess is a good amount of protective scum rolls, ready to take out people who attack obvious targets. Or just that the probabilities of doing random killing leave very little chance to get them all.

OK I'm just now starting to read the thread but I passed your avatar and made a little girl squeal at how cute it is. It's just so unbearably precious :3 :3 :3

Ok?
But what does that have to do with oi you!'s quote?
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Elvish Pillager » Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:01 am UTC

A note (not related to the ongoing discussion, I just realized this was a possibility when someone mentioned "speedlynch"): Scum speedlynching to prevent town from discussing targets is not a legitimate tactic. Hence, consider the rules amended as follows: There will always be at least 72 hours for discussion on each game day. If a player is hammered in the first 72 hours, they are locked in as the player to be lynched, but the discussion phase continues.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Not A Raptor » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:06 am UTC

I will remain wary of anybody who votes for anything but nolynch. Other than that, I need time to think about this setup.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby webby » Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:28 am UTC

2. Each game day, you decide on somebody to lynch. Someone will always be lynched each day - you can't choose not to lynch - and there are no vote-affecting or lynch-affecting abilities in the game. If there's no majority by the deadline, then the lynch will be decided by plurality. If there's a tie, it will be decided at random, except that town will always be lynched before scum, because the lynch is the scum's main weapon. The town are also not permitted to decide the lynch based on the player order, cryptography, or any other external source of randomness. You're supposed to vote for who you think is scum.


Why don't we just think about doing what the mod says and vote for who we think is scum? I think we just be a little wary of bandwagons, think for yourself and vote for who you think is scummiest, rather than following other people, but I wouldn't be surprised if we managed to lynch scum anyway. I'll be most suspicious of the people who vote later, or who change their votes to a candidate with a lot of votes on them already.

Basically, my point is that when scum likely have no more than 8-10 votes out of 15, it's going to be hard for them to reach a majority without it being obvious what they're doing. I wouldn't be surprised if we managed to lynch scum on day 1.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Elvish Pillager » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:37 am UTC

Hi again!

Most of the strategy discussions I'm going to leave up to you, but I want this one point to be very clear: You players aren't supposed to vote because I told you to, you're supposed to vote because voting is, for town players, genuinely a pro-town action. If nobody votes, the lynch just hits a random townie and the town gets no information at all. If the townies vote, they have a better-than-even chance of voting for scum, so the scum have to use their own votes to move the lynch back to a townie - and doing that may tip their hand a little.

Also, all of you should go and re-read the rules, because you really do have to read all of them. Not A Raptor's goof-up here is especially public and embarrassing, but I bet most of you skimmed over the rules, so you might make just as big a blunder sometime soon. And then your incorrect assumptions might actually affect the course of the game, unlike NAR's assumption, which has been quickly corrected.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Dr Ug » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:03 am UTC

Ok time for some stream of consciousness after reading the thread to date:

Not A Raptor wrote:I will remain wary of anybody who votes for anything but nolynch. Other than that, I need time to think about this setup.


I have to say this was also my first thought on reading the setup. Probably because I missed this part:
Elvish Pillager wrote:Someone will always be lynched each day - you can't choose not to lynch
as has just been pointed out by the modly ninja. My first thought was not "let's ignore the mod saying we shouldn't spell out our targets." Here's why:

Despite the labels, essentially we are playing town (scum) vs multiple SK's who win together. As far as I can see, scum have no night kill.

Do scum have a night kill?

The big difference to this is that the town know who the SK's are. However, at the moment the town (SK's) have a lot more kills than the scum do, so the scum are very heavily reliant on the lynch to win - that and the fact that SK's will likely take out at least one-two of their own over the course of the game.

Given the statement to be wary of spelling out our kills, there is almost certainly some power roles in scum that would make this a bad strategy. Several possibilities spring to mind that I would consider if I was designing this game:

1) redirect kills - perhaps requiring them to know (/ guess) the target of a player, possibly multiple shots per night
2) specific doctor - protect player X against a kill from player Y (ie need to specify both, probably with multiple shots per night)
3) Mirror - protect player X and any kills on them kill the potential killer
4) Some other power that gives you benefit from knowing someone's target (/ guessing someone's target) - such as they lose their kill and you gain it, either once or for the rest of the game; you gain some other power.

These are just the few I've thought of in the few minutes since reading the setup - there are probably quite a few others possible, any number of which are in this game. I will be very suspicious of anyone who states their target for the night.

On other points:

I agree with the proposed numbers above, I think 9 ± 1 scum is the most likely setup.

a-wan is pinging me quite a bit - firstly he suggested we ignore the mod, secondly his wording seems a bit off to me (not sure what exactly yet, i'll have to reread to get a better feeling on this). He also seemed to be backpedalling from his suggestion after everyone jumped on him for it. After his (strange) suggestion was killed, he then said "oh well, better wait for the lynch". His vote on Lorenz seems a bit quick, very much looks like wagon-starting, and if a-wan turns out scum I think Lorenz is likely town. However I really dislike random voting (such as what Lorenz did), and possibly I'd have thrown a vote there myself if a-wan hadn't.

So far between Lorenz and a-wan I'm leaning towards a-wan, and because I don't like FoS's:

Vote: a-wan
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby weiyaoli » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:22 am UTC

There are no other faction powers (i.e. the scum don't have a nightkill or chat.)


I think webby makes a good point that scum may play very cautiously D1 so we may very well end up lynching scum (especially if scum decide to distance and hope vig kills hit other town in the night).

And NL apart from being forbidden in the rules is forbidden for a reason, since scum have no NK and therefore have to rely on lynches and miskills to win.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Dr Ug » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:29 am UTC

Hmm I missed that bit too:

Elvish Pillager wrote:There are no other faction powers (i.e. the scum don't have a nightkill or chat.)


This has to mean just no shared faction powers, rather than no other power roles (beyond "SK" and all-knowing town), or the statement about not spelling out our targets make no sense.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby weiyaoli » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:33 am UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:4. Some of the players are "power roles" with additional abilities. None of them are ridiculously complex, and the game contains no bastardry (unless you think that the setup itself is bastardly, but that can't be helped ).


I would assume this allows for both scum powers and town powers.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Dr Ug » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:38 am UTC

Ok, i'm really going to reread the rules now...
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby John Citizen » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:24 am UTC

Dr Ug wrote:My first thought was not "let's ignore the mod saying we shouldn't spell out our targets." Here's why:

Despite the labels, essentially we are playing town (scum) vs multiple SK's who win together. As far as I can see, scum have no night kill.

The big difference to this is that the town know who the SK's are. However, at the moment the town (SK's) have a lot more kills than the scum do, so the scum are very heavily reliant on the lynch to win - that and the fact that SK's will likely take out at least one-two of their own over the course of the game.

There is one major reason why it cannot be considered this way; this is that the scum are trying to hide and pretend that they are town, and the town/SKs are trying to be honest and find scum. This is not just a matter of perspective either, as scum behaving like they are the town will just get themselves killed by the town/SKs.

In general, I would expect a few town power roles as well as scum. As a rough estimate, I would guess the split at about 5T/10S and not too far from that. A higher number of townies would seem to require a high density of scum power roles, and a lower number would create an easy win for scum.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby jayhsu » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:39 am UTC

Quick thoughts, more analysis forthcoming in about 2 hours: why would town vote at all, unless to move the lynch away from themselves? I suppose we can' t select No Lynch, but town could just vote for a random person who has no votes, oh wait, that doesn't really work, then they'd give themselves away...

Well, my other thought was that town would remain relatively quiet - unfortunately, active lurking is not the worst strategy for scum, which is basically what the town is, now. But I think that might be a moot point too.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby weiyaoli » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:47 am UTC

jayhsu wrote:Quick thoughts, more analysis forthcoming in about 2 hours: why would town vote at all, unless to move the lynch away from themselves? I suppose we can' t select No Lynch, but town could just vote for a random person who has no votes, oh wait, that doesn't really work, then they'd give themselves away...

Well, my other thought was that town would remain relatively quiet - unfortunately, active lurking is not the worst strategy for scum, which is basically what the town is, now. But I think that might be a moot point too.

FoS: jayhsu

If town doesn't vote for who they think is scum, a town lynch is guaranteed. By not voting and being passive you are also going to appear scummier to other town and therefore might draw incorrect night kills.

I can't see any reason to vote for NL or similar strategies (even if we could). Not only will all draws always being in the scum's favour, it gives us no information.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:50 am UTC

First of all, I wasn't truly proposing to ignore the mod. I wanted discussion about why the mod would suggest that announcing who you are going to kill would be a bad idea. I think scum might have a better idea about it than town, so as people explain about it we can get an idea of what information they have.

The main reason I voted for Lorenz is not because I necessarily think he's scum, but because I actually read all the rules I saw that scum can kill with just a plurality. We can't ever let scum hide by killing with just a plurality; we need to force a majority vote so all scum commits to a vote. Since Lorenz voted, I was just making sure that there was an opposing vote. Since at that point I had very little information to go by, I chose to vote for Lorenz based solely on the fact that he was first to vote and the lynch is mafias tool.

It may not be the best strategy, but I'm going to use it for now until someone proposes a better one. The mod shot down the other one I was thinking of before the game even started, so this is all I've got for now.

Anyways, since I don't truly suspect Lorenz (though, like everyone, he has a greater than 50% chance of being scum) I'm going to

Unvote Lorenz and
Vote webby

I'm voting webby for now because he suggested that we might actually be able to lynch scum. I really don't see scum letting us lynch scum, so suggesting that it's possible could be scum trying to pacify us as far as the lynch goes. Make no mistake: scum wants us to think we can lynch them. If we believe we have lynched scum that makes our NKs harder to choose. Whatever happens I think we have to assume that the lynch will end up hitting town. I don't think scum will kill one of their own, even to save themselves--there are just too many NKs for them to survive otherwise.

ninja'd by JC and jayshu. In response to jayshu, I'll just say again that we cannot let scum lynch with a small plurality. If they lynch using just one vote, for instance, then all town target the one lyncher, and we only end up killing one scum and losing one town in the process. We vote because it forces them to reveal themselves by voting for someone else. Our only hope is if we can find someone who is definitely scum and vote for them so that all scum will have to vote for someone else.

Every town vote on a townie means that scum can hide their vote.

Every town non-vote means that a scum doesn't have to vote.

ninja'd by weiyaoli making very similar points.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:04 pm UTC

EBWOP

One thing I was just thinking with respect to what I just wrote. One lynch on town with only one scum killed in return is bad, but it would be disastrous if town NK'd each other. Obviously, only 1 scum killed during each firefight is a strategy designed to fail, but is there any chance we might be able to improve our information about who is scum enough after the first firefight that it would make sense to hold off on using our NK if we don't have enough information to be confident we won't be killing town. I guess more importantly,

Does each town player have to use his NK?

Chances are, we'll be reasonably sure of at least a couple of scum after the lynch, so it won't be necessary to not NK, but town on town NKs are what will hurt us the most, so if there's a cop, we could at least have one confirmed scum after the first firefight, which would make it easier to not NK each other.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby webby » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:23 pm UTC

a-wan wrote:Anyways, since I don't truly suspect Lorenz (though, like everyone, he has a greater than 50% chance of being scum) I'm going to

Unvote Lorenz and
Vote webby

I'm voting webby for now because he suggested that we might actually be able to lynch scum. I really don't see scum letting us lynch scum, so suggesting that it's possible could be scum trying to pacify us as far as the lynch goes. Make no mistake: scum wants us to think we can lynch them. If we believe we have lynched scum that makes our NKs harder to choose. Whatever happens I think we have to assume that the lynch will end up hitting town. I don't think scum will kill one of their own, even to save themselves--there are just too many NKs for them to survive otherwise.


Assuming we lynched town is just as bad a mistake as assuming we lynched scum. This game is going to be decided far more by the nightkills than the lynches, simply because there's (likely) 5-7 possible nightkills each night, while there's only one lynch. Scum aren't going to give themselves away that easily by all jumping on a town bandwagon, at least in early game, there's every reason to believe that they might allow a scum player to be lynched to gain townie cred. This is especially true when there's no communication or coordination between the scum players.

As I said before, I think it's going to be very hard for scum to reach a majority without it being obvious what they're doing.

And jayhsu, when there's so few town, it's more important than usual for townies speak up and put their opinion out there. Otherwise, scum controls the direction of the game. There is no way that active lurking can possibly be good for town. The only reason it's good for scum in normal games is because town has no idea who they are. Here, scum knows who the townies are, so I can't see the benefit of trying to be inconspicious?
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby jayhsu » Tue Aug 02, 2011 1:45 pm UTC

Yes, all these points make sense - I was just talking myself through it. I'm not sure there is a way to 'game' the system, it seems fairly thought out. I suppose I'll prepare some more analysis shortly, and hope it is of some use.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby jayhsu » Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:04 pm UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:You are Vanilla Town.

You may kill another player each night. If you're lynched, you can still kill on that night.

[/quote]

I don't think anyone has mentioned this - this seems somewhat important. Like the assassin death-kill in Assassins in the Palace.

Elvish Pillager wrote:6. This isn't a rule, but if the town picks a player order and instructs each player to kill the next player on the list, then the town will almost certainly lose. Be wary of claiming your targets before the night.


This is also obviously vital, but I'm interested why the word "almost certainly" is used - my assumption then is that there must be multiple scum doctors or vig-kill blockers, etc.

The rest seems pretty simple. I think Weiyaoli is correct that there are more than 3 town. If there are in fact multiple scum-docs/blockers, then my guess is that there are 9 scum and 6 town.

Interesting role-specs by Dr Ug. Also interesting question by A-wan. I guess town might not want to use all their vig-kills if they believe they outnumber the scum? I'm not sure how they would coordinate that. Hm.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Elvish Pillager » Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:52 pm UTC

a-wan wrote:Does each town player have to use his NK?

Town players may choose to withhold their kills.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:26 pm UTC

I think the biggest reason not to use NK is if you think the chance of hitting another town is too high, which is the biggest barrier to winning this game. For instance, if there are 10 scum, and town gets lynched (as expected), the best case scenario that involves a town on town kill has us going from 10-5 to 6-3, which leads to a stalemate at best. With two town on town kills, the best we get is 7-2, at which point we might as well give up. If scum starts with 9 then two town on town kills gets us to 6-3. So above all, we need to make sure NKs do not fall on town.

If town ends up in the majority, I think withholding NK would be the wrong move as long as there is at least one obvious scum target because maybe one of scum's protective powers could be overcome with a double NK.
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby Sruixan » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:22 pm UTC

Thinking aloud here... (not really very out loud if it's hiding behind a spoiler tag, but ho hum)
Spoiler:
5t 10s, t lynch today
4 living townies have a 3/13 chance of hitting town with their kill
1 dead townie has a 4/14 (2/7) chance of hitting town with their kill

5t 10s, s lynch today
5 living townies have a 4/13 chance of hitting town with their kill

6t 9s, t lynch today
5 living townies have a 4/13 chance of hitting town with their kill
1 dead townie has a 5/14 chance of hitting town with their kill

6t 9s, s lynch today
6 living townies have a 5/13 chance of hitting town with their kill
So it's not out of the question that we'll get town deaths tonight. I can't help but think it wasn't exactly necessary to go through with the maths to actually deduce that, mind. But bear in mind that the above assumes that we're all mindless morons who determine our target entirely through the whims of chance; if any townie can identify someone who they are sure is scum, be it from today's lynch record or just through demeanour alone, then the chance of their kill hitting mafia... actually to be honest it rises to 50/50 based on whether or not they're gloriously right or deplorably wrong, but that's me being pessimistic. So yes, I agree with a-wan's sentiment; trying to stop kills from taking out townies is critical. I don't think withholding them is the way to go, but then nobody's said that so I can't shout at them for having done so. Shame.

The main way we have of getting rid of scum is through the kills. The lynch is not guaranteed, although webby does have a point about how it might not be quite so gloomy a picture if we realise that the mafia have to be very careful about how they build up a bandwagon. Come to think of it, if we do get it so that 7 people are voting on someone, we know for (almost) certain that one person voting is scum and it's practically preposterous to say that there would be just one and only one. Sorry if that seems obvious, but I've spent most of this post going from despairing over misleading statistics to being rather more optimistic about our prospects here...

Two other things...
weiyaoli wrote:...this could be the set-up if the additional powers help town in some way to kill or avoid the lynch (e.g. pardoner?)

Elvish Pillager wrote:...there are no vote-affecting or lynch-affecting abilities in the game...


a-wan wrote:...which leads to a stalemate at best.

Elvish Pillager wrote:If there's a tie, it will be decided at random, except that town will always be lynched before scum, because the lynch is the scum's main weapon.

Yes, I re-read the rules just now. How could you tell?

webby wrote:This game is going to be decided far more by the nightkills than the lynches, simply because there's (likely) 5-7 possible nightkills each night, while there's only one lynch.
I don't suppose you could explain how you got to the 5-7 figure you've stated here? I understand that we could have 7 townies, yes, but if there are scum roles designed to stymie kills somehow, plus the fact that kills could target the same person, I wouldn't be as bold as to say that 5-7 was "likely"...
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Re: Death to the Conspiracy - Hour 1: It's Infiltration O'Cl

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:55 pm UTC

I think when webby said "likely" he was referring to the fact that there are likely 5-7 townies (though it is still possible there would be fewer than 5, but that's unlikely). The word "possible" preceding "kills" takes care of the uncertainty associated with scum blocking NKs or multiple NKs on the same person.

My reference to a stalemate was just that it would get down to 1 scum and 1 town. Of course, that wouldn't be a draw, as each would vote for the other and the townie would get lynched.

And yes, I suppose it's possible that scum will allow a scum lynch, it just seems extremely unlikely. They know who we are, but we don't. I guess it's not 100% that we'll end up with a town lynch tonight, but I think it's not unreasonable to believe that it's greater than 90%, so I think we can couple that with information we glean from the posts today to choose our NKs tonight. It seems like a fair assumption, and it's definitely a useful assumption.
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