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Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
Misnomer wrote:Assuming that doesn't provoke a response, Adam and me are now both confirmed town.![]()
Now we just need to find a third man for the team.
VectorZero wrote:So, my suggestion would be adamH, misnomer, (VZ|lorenz|roband, in that order)
No it wasn't a trap. It was just added evidence that you really don't like BF.VectorZero wrote:As for the FoS I agreed with ... I now assume you think that's some sort of trap for me? I don't get it.
OK, seriously, you're not thinking about this (or I'm just an idiot, which could definitely be the case). If you are town, webby MUST MUST MUST be spy. No way around it (at least not now that misnomer is clear). Therefore, the only possible reason you should suspect BF in the least is if you think he accused a fellow spy. I think that's a whacky assumption, considering that the spies have lost all 3 previous games - while I haven't looked at how they went, it seems like the spies wouldn't do anything whacky in this game if they were up 2-0 and basically assured of a win. And the fact that you've never said "webby is 100% spy" is also whacky. There's too much whack here!VectorZero wrote:If mpolo is scum (i.e. the two scum from mpolo/misnomer/webby/VZ/boomfrog in mission 2 are, not counting me, eliminating the now 'confirmed' misnomer and hoping BF is town) mpolo and webby), webby and GoP are also scum. This is looking increasingly likely (from my PoV).
Lorenz wrote:At least one of BF/VZ must be on the spy team.
Well, yes, they are common tactics, but not if there's no point. And I don't see any point - it's not like we're going to lynch one which would falsely confirm the other. With spies up 2-0, I don't see what spy-BF and spy-webby would gain by making us suspect at least one of them. We probably won't send either on a mission for the rest of the game, so spy-BF must have thought that the other 2 spies would seem less scummy if he bussed webby... How? Can't think of anything...Misnomer wrote:Bussing and distancing are common tactics - I don't think we can assume that scum wouldn't out other scum.
I've already shown how not NCing spy-BF's proposal would be the right spy-roband thing to do. Assuming roband and BF are both scum, what other bad plays were there?Misnomer wrote:As for Roband/BF - if they are both scum, then Roband has played shockingly badly...
Haha yeah it's because "The spy team needs at least two of VZ/BF/Webby/Mpolo on it", so if neither BF or Webby are on it then mpolo must be on it... without webby... you see the problem here...Misnomer wrote:And yeah they do, freakishly enough.![]()
You're repeating yourself, AdamH. Your argument boils down to 'you can't possibly think that [boom frog would bus webby] since I think it's really unlikely that [boomfrog would bus webby]. I get your point. There's no need to waste breath over it. But it's not enough for me to risk putting boom frog on a team at this point.Adam H wrote:OK, seriously, you're not thinking about this (or I'm just an idiot, which could definitely be the case). If you are town, webby MUST MUST MUST be spy. No way around it (at least not now that misnomer is clear). Therefore, the only possible reason you should suspect BF in the least is if you think he accused a fellow spy. I think that's a whacky assumption, considering that the spies have lost all 3 previous games - while I haven't looked at how they went, it seems like the spies wouldn't do anything whacky in this game if they were up 2-0 and basically assured of a win. And the fact that you've never said "webby is 100% spy" is also whacky. There's too much whack here!
I am new to the forums so I don't know if BF is gutsy enough to accuse a fellow spy. But if he's good enough to pull it off, then how could he be bad enough so that VZ would say, "his play has been really bad"?! It just doesn't make sense to me.
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
Adam H wrote:And the fact that you've never said "webby is 100% spy" is also whacky.
VectorZero wrote:As to webby, yes, I'm pretty sure he's scum and have consistently voted against him and have used that as my reasoning. I don't see an issue here.
VectorZero wrote:Misnomer: that looks...interesting. Further filtering it, excluding teams with me in, puts roband in only 1 team. Nice tactic.
I'm happy to follow Adam for this vote.
I think it's a bit of a leap to go from Webby forgot you have NC to Roband forgot you have NC. I certainly remembered that you had an NC but I suppose that might be because I gave it out.Adam wrote:Well, I don't think many people remembered that I had a NC, and if Roband didn't remember that I had an NC, he would have no reason to NC if you both were spies. So I think it is reasonable that town-webby should trust roband. On the other hand, it's not really reasonable that spy-webby should care what we think of spy-roband... so I think that if webby "wants to have a reason to find roband towny", then it doesn't imply that webby and roband are both spies...
I was attempting to speak objectively. As in, even people who are not me should not be accepting a mission with both of them on it, there is no reason for anyone to do it.Adam H wrote:We would need one of them (roband and webby) ONLY if they were both town, which BF knows is not the case. So... FoS: BF.
That's a good point, I wish I had know that before I gave GoP an OverhearLorenz wrote:GoP HAD to reject it, no matter what, because the other 3 persons on m1 were on it. If he hadn't rejected it it would have made him look VERY suspicious.
Not really an (A) since my last vote instructions PM still said to reject any team by Cjdrum. Feeling better about Lorenz for his reject of this team.jayhsu wrote:8. BoomFrog - REJECT (A)
VectorZero wrote:As to webby, yes, I'm pretty sure he's scum and have consistently voted against him and have used that as my reasoning. I don't see an issue here.
I have to agree with AdamH VZ is 99% spy here. "Leaning" towards BF being the townier is a far cry from, "I'm 100% sure that webby is spy from deduction but still suspicious of BF." This makes me sad because my gut was telling me he is town.VectorZero just last page wrote:In other words, I'd prefer neither webby nor boomfrog weren't on a mission at this stage. However, I'm certainly leaning towards boomfrog being the townier.
Silas wrote:Nobody who gets paid by the hour invents a cotton gin.
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
DP: could you still explain this to me, I haven't figured it out yet. For the record my logic was, "Webby's acting suddenly suspicious with this team proposal, he's most likely a spy, catching a spy is better then confirming a (probably)town. Therefore Keep an Eye on Webby."BoomFrog wrote:Could you explain this to me I don't understand how you arrived at this conclusion.dotproduct wrote:This is because I noticed that it could have been better and could not have
been worse for BoomFrog to have used KaCEoY on VectorZero or Misnomer.
Silas wrote:Nobody who gets paid by the hour invents a cotton gin.
EBWOP: oops, I completely missed this post by Adam H. Which explains dot product thinking ive posted a disconnect. Sorry, your point is taken.Adam H wrote:misnomer-
I will agree with your conclusion, that roband and mpolo are the safest. However, I disagree that roband and BF cannot both be spies, and I also would (subjectively) decrease the probability that BF and webby are on the same team. The end result is that roband goes up a couple points and mpolo goes down half a point or so. Also, if I eliminate all the spy teams without VZ on it, mpolo goes to ONE (roband is at 3). So yeah, I'd prefer mpolo on the team.
I sort of disagree with lorenz - yes the probabilities are skewed towards those that we have information about, but that just means that the methodology is correct... And I think the list of groups is handy.
I'm rejecting, but not NCing. I don't want to drag this out, and if you all think roband is innocent, then I'll go with that and just add mpolo for the next 4 man team.
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
BoomFrog wrote:DP: could you still explain this to me, I haven't figured it out yet. For the record my logic was, "Webby's acting suddenly suspicious with this team proposal, he's most likely a spy, catching a spy is better then confirming a (probably)town. Therefore Keep an Eye on Webby."BoomFrog wrote:Could you explain this to me I don't understand how you arrived at this conclusion.dotproduct wrote:This is because I noticed that it could have been better and could not have
been worse for BoomFrog to have used KaCEoY on VectorZero or Misnomer.
I'm going to have difficulty attending the game for a bit so here's my instructions.
Approve any team including Me and Mpolo.
If I go on M1 with Mpolo, Webby, BoomFrog then do not use Eye.
If I go on M4 then I use Eye on Webby>Misnomer>the second player listed besides me.
If any other mission happens not covered above then use Eye on the first player listed who is not me.
Silas wrote:Nobody who gets paid by the hour invents a cotton gin.
mpolo wrote:It seems like the consensus is building to just trust AdamH on this by rejecting. I hope that this isn't suicide on our part.
roband wrote:Adam, I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say to your point that "using the NC was the perfect thing for spy-roband to do".
Adam H wrote:I've already shown how not NCing spy-BF's proposal would be the right spy-roband thing to do.
I don't follow this logic? If he is a spy then I am definitely town (as the team was me and two now confirmed town), but if he is town, I may or may not be town.mpolo wrote:and reflects as poorly on BoomFrog as on roband,
AdamH has a NC so we would have already lost if he was a spy therefore he and Misnomer are 100% really confirmed town. Your away instructions should be to approve any team proposed by AdamH or Misnomer, the other details I leave to you.It seems like the consensus is building to just trust AdamH on this by rejecting. I hope that this isn't suicide on our part. But I think that I will reject, as Adam seems mostly trustworthy -- at least he has less of a cloud over him than roband does.
I am only online for about 24 hours by now, so I guess I will send in some appropriate "what if" scenarios to jayhsu to cover until (if) he can find a replacement.
Silas wrote:Nobody who gets paid by the hour invents a cotton gin.
dotproduct wrote:mpolo wrote:It seems like the consensus is building to just trust AdamH on this by rejecting. I hope that this isn't suicide on our part.
Can you elaborate on this?
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.
AHHH I actually did mean that YES NCing spy-BF's proposal is the right spy-roband thing to do! I'll elaborate again since no one called me out on my typo and therefore it's not obvious.dotproduct wrote:that's not what he was getting at either.
(bold added)Adam H wrote:I've already shown how not NCing spy-BF's proposal would be the right spy-roband thing to do.
Haha you saw through my typo but still misunderstood me. IF you and BF are both spy, then you made the right choice. And IF you are town, then you also made the right choice. I'm just not ruling out that you can't both be spies.roband wrote:Adam, I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say to your point that "using the NC was the perfect thing for spy-roband to do".
mpolo wrote:...
If we reject and AdamH is scum, then we lose, because of the 5 rejections rule. (We lose if we reject, and we lose if he puts a scum on the team.) However, since he has a NC, he can essentially force that situation anyway. I sent in a reject because that seemed to be consensus, but I presume that I can change that still if it's not.
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