[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby roband » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:10 am UTC

Hey Ibarra, I see you posting in other places. Come here and counterclaim or not, please?

I'm worried we're going to mess this up.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby Ibarra » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:17 am UTC

I was just getting to post here.
I am not the cop either.
Though my gut is telling me JC isn't the cop.

Also, I have most likely won't be online during the deadline. (I'm bad with mornings)
Hopefully everyone will have posted before I go to sleep.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby roband » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:27 am UTC

Ibarra wrote:Though my gut is telling me JC isn't the cop.


Yeah, I'm feeling this as well.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby Lorenz » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:26 am UTC

No cop here either.
I do have a very strong feeling as to who is the cop, and it's not JC.
I'll leave my vote as I won't be able to post again before deadline. If nobody counterclaims I hope we have enough people up to over-vote someone else.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby a-wan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:08 pm UTC

Not the cop, either. So we wait for webby and greenlover.

At the very least, we may get some interesting discussion out of this.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby a-wan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:29 pm UTC

EBWOP:

If JC is telling the truth, then that leaves 3 scum. If no one else claims, then at least one person and probably more that I've been trusting is scum. If webby and greenlover are mafia, would it make sense to speed lynch?

If they speed lynch then tonight it's 2 mafia, 1 werewolf, 1 doctor, 1 seer, 1 vanilla town. We would know who the mafia were (only mafia would possibly speed lynch cop). Werewolf would know to take out mafia (why wouldn't he? He kills one tonight and we lynch the other tomorrow--there's no other way WW could win.) If mafia takes out werewolf, then we win tomorrow. If mafia tries to take out town, doctor could protect and we would have 3 town tomorrow and we would be able to take out a faction, so we end up 2-1 the following day, with pretty good odds of taking out the WW. If mafia succeeds in taking out a town, then we have two town tomorrow against 1 mafia and 1 WW. We take out 1 of the two and we end up losing because the next day it would likely be a scum win with 1 town and 1 scum.

Therefore I'll

Unvote

Just to avoid the possibility of a speed lynch that would likely result in a town loss. I'm not accusing webby and greenlover, I just don't want leave that possibility open.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby roband » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:46 pm UTC

FOS a-wan

You say that greenlover and webby could be mafia, despite suggesting that we investigate Ibarra? Surely you'd be more inclined to think that ze is scum, no?

webby has been acting pretty solidly townie in my eyes, so your suspicions of him make me suspicious of you.

I still think Ibarra warrants being investigated, but IGMEOY
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby webby » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:27 pm UTC

I'm the cop.

I was out this evening, hence not claiming yet, but I think I would have waited anyway to see what people's reactions were and to see if JC was going to just be lynched anyway without people making any claims.

Vote: John Citizen

I don't actually have any strong preference as to who to investigate. I think confirmed town may become as useful as confirmed scum. I'll stick with Ibarra for now. To the seer - don't reveal your results until we've established it's the right thing to do, because there are 4 and 5 player scenarios where it won't be.

I'm inclined to think JC is the last werewolf - nobody ever tried to move the lynch away from him or anything - and it feels like genuine suspicion/scumhunting rather than bussing. Up to the doctor whether they want to protect me or Lorenz - best not to reveal who. :P
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby roband » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:31 pm UTC

Like I said before, I trust webby in this game.

Vote JC
Investigate Ibarra still.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby Ibarra » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:44 pm UTC

I believe that webby is telling the truth.
I would vote JC if it wasn't going to hammer.
We still have around 7 hours left to discuss what ever is left to discuss.
(I believe that the town has reached a general consensus already though. Vote JC, Investigate me and Doc should protect one of webby/Lorenz)
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby greenlover » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:52 pm UTC

Meh. Still prefer a roband lynch to a JC lynch, but I think that JC has been sufficiently werewolf-like enough to be lynched. And we have a claimed cop, which makes me all sorts of happy [/still likes FTC].
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby roband » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:57 pm UTC

Yeah but FTC is no good until the cop gets a hit. Claiming like this is unfortunate, but necessary I guess.

Although, it helps the doctor protect the important person. Especially if JC is a werewolf - cop is now the most important role we have.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby a-wan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 2:42 pm UTC

First, as I said, I wasn't accusing webby and greenlover. I was simply removing the possibility that they could speed lynch on the off chance that they were a mafia team. As I've said before, I've generally found webby's posts to be townie. That doesn't mean I shouldn't protect against my being wrong on how I read people.

Second, I still trust webby so I plan on voting JC but won't hammer until he has a chance to defend himself. My only doubts right now are because claiming cop seems like something that would benefit mafia more than WW (if JC is mafia, then he just got webby to reveal himself so his partner has a chance to kill him), so it's curious that JC doesn't have a stronger supporter. It seems like WW would have been more likely to claim seer in order to reveal seer. But I guess, if he's WW then he either loses today or loses tomorrow one way or the other after claiming. Anyways, I want to see what he has to say before simply trusting my gut and believing webby.

Third, FTC is not only the only option we have right now, but it's still one of the best options (especially since we have the cop and not the seer) because there are TWO mafia still alive right now to only ONE werewolf. Cop seems more useful than seer at this point.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D2: You Can Run...

Postby a-wan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:50 pm UTC

With only 10 minutes left, it looks like JC is not going to defend himself, so either he is scum and sees the inevitable, or he is a very unhelpful cop (either way he seems to be pulling for scum). I'm pretty sure it's the first option and hope that the fact that he claimed cop means that he's mafia. So I will officially

Vote JC
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ N2: Infinitely Many Outcomes

Postby cjdrum » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:53 pm UTC

Lynch happened!

Final Vote Count
John Citizen (4) - Lorenz, webby, roband, a-wan


[flavour here (no time now)]

John Citizen has been lynched. He was...
Spoiler:
Something that I'll tell you in the morning!

It is now Night Two, which will end in at most 48 hours, preferably earlier. Go!
:shock:
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby cjdrum » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:50 pm UTC

So Ibarra got killed.

Ibarra was shot Night Two. He was the Doctor.


Also, D2 involved lynching John Citizen...

John Citizen was lynched Day Two. He was the remaining Werewolf.


It is now Day Three. Day Three will end 96 hours from this post, whether I officially end the Day then or not.

5 not dead, 3 to lynch.
It is also LYLO.
:shock:
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:24 pm UTC

So, anyone opposed to a massclaim? At this point, I can't see any disadvantages.

Actually...from my point of view, this game is settled. The two remaining mafia have to be a-wan and roband, since I know I'm not mafia, Lorenz was cleared N1, and webby hasn't been counterclaimed. There are simply no other options.

I won't vote yet, since I want the two confirmed townies to give their opinion on massclaiming, but my vote will land on either a-wan or roband, it doesn't really matter which.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:47 pm UTC

First of all, I'm the seer, and greenlover and roband are mafia.

I'm now going to go back through the thread so I can show it.

Lorenz and webbby, this game's in your hands right now as I'm sure greenlover and roband are going to do everything in their power to convince you to lynch me. In fact, I would say this game is in Lorenz's hands, since, with the doctor dead, they can now bus each other, kill webby tonight, then try to convince Lorenz that since they voted for the other mafia that they are obviously not mafia and they should kill me.

Right about now, this game is feeling like it was stacked against town from the beginning. We've never mislynched, we had a successful doctor, and only one kill each night. We even believed the right cop claim and we're still at lynch or lose. And even if we lynch correctly today and we have both cops alive at the end of this day, we could still lose tomorrow.

So webby and Lorenz, I'll vote for either greenlover or roband. I'll post again as soon as I've had a chance to go through their posts.

ninja'd by greenlover saying what I expected him to. As far as I'm concerned, everyone knows everything anyway. The only reason greenlover wouldn't claim is because Lorenz never truly confirmed that he was vanilla town. I actually thought that greenlover and JC would end up being mafia, with Ibarra being the last werewolf.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:54 am UTC

Meh. I was going to wait until we got a go ahead to claim our roles, but it looks like a-wan got ahead of the eight ball here and claimed.

Anyway, I'm seer. D1 breadcrumb (beginning of third word of each sentence outside of parenthesis, emphases my own):
Spoiler:
greenlover wrote:Eh, I see a couple of problems with that strategy, roband. First, it either gives the mafia or the werewolf's (sometimes both) some strong incentive to kill off whoever we pick for the cop target (if they know that the target isn't them, it would be in their interest to kill that target off to prevent the possibility of a confirmed towny.). Second, it establishes the mafia's as being a really powerful force in deciding who is copped (they have 4 out of the 9 votes deciding who is copped, which - even though they are opposing each other - is pretty darn significant.).

However, you're right insofar as this is probably better than just having the cops cop randomly, and if we only could work out how to negate the mafias's influence, it would certainly be better than the status quo.
Annnnd, considering that a-wan somehow managed to guess my role, that claim will still look quite suspect even though I breadcrumbed it on D1.

I can't prove to you guys that A-wan is mafia, cause up til today, I thought that they were doc. You'all already saw my analysis of roband and why I think he is mafia, but that isn't believable, apparently. So, yeah. Hope you guys lynch the two mafia.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Sun Aug 07, 2011 1:23 am UTC

ninja'd

Obviously, greenlover was intending to claim seer at the beginning. He must have realized part way through that cop would serve him better. Below is the post I had written prior to greenlover's ninja. I think you'll see he chose a different way of breadcrumbing part way through. I guess if he had used the same type of breadcrumb with a different claim, he was worried we would find the "seer" breadcrumb as well and be outed.

Original pre-ninja post:

Here's what I have:

When greenlover agreed with my plan for one cop to claim, he made a modification to it that would have given the cop that claimed the power to decide which person both the cop and the seer should investigate. To me, this seems like he was trying to make it possible for him to claim cop. This would allow him to claim, get the real cop lynched when they counter claim, then direct the investigation of the seer, thus eliminating the one person who would be able to identify mafia while making sure the doctor was protecting him and not town or WW and using the seer to either find a werewolf or make roband half-cleared by the seer. He would have been sacrificing himself, but that modification seemed like it might have made the sacrifice worth it.

roband was strongly against FTC the whole time. Even when I gave strong arguments for it, his only counter was:
roband wrote:I still don't like it.

Nothing else. Just "I don't like it", with no good reason otherwise.

roband and greenlover started distancing early. greenlover mentioned roband as a secondary person to investigate (not his first preference--his second), to which roband effectively overreacted (which worked for me, but as I have noted earlier in the game, I am sometimes too easily swayed). When greenlover would say something roband started off argumentative with greenlover, but would then agree. I have to say, greenlover's distancing became rather bold at times, but he always seemed to do it after a consensus was building in other directions. Obviously, he felt more confident in attacking roband than vice versa since roband had gained people's trust so effectively.

One of the biggest tells comes from when greenlover first posted after N1:
greenlover wrote:Just a few quick thoughts now, I hope to make a more through post later. First, roband is pinging me like mad (but I haven't quite figured out why yet), second, assuming I'm a cop, I didn't receive a positive investigation result on Lorenz, and third, I'm not in favor of a lurker lynch when a mislynch almost insures a lost for town.

The small tell is that he goes out of his way to say roband is pinging him like mad, but is intentionally vague. The big tell is that he is obviously breadcrumbing a cop claim here (which would benefit mafia more than WW) but still keeping the breadcrumb vague enough that, if he needed to, he could say "I didn't mean the cop! I said a cop, because I was actually the seer!"

Notice that later, when JC claimed cop, greenlover was the only one that didn't claim not to be the cop when webby finally claimed. It seems clear to me that the reason he waited was to see what everyone else claimed, so he would know if he could claim cop, as he was planning to do.

And now I understand why greenlover's distancing was so bold! He must have been planning to claim cop from the beginning! He breadcrumbed multiple posts, but was waiting for the optimal time to do it. The N1 conversation between roband and greenlover must have been discussing ways that the cop claim could work. Seems to me, they had to be able to make optimal use of the claim so that they could eliminate the cop, and clear roband as much as possible. First, greenlover wants to alter my plan to gain access to both the seer and doctor powers while eliminating the one person that would be able to confirm roband as mafia, but since he would effectively be lynching himself on the following day by claiming cop, he had to publicly accuse roband of being scum so that when greenlover turned up mafia, roband would have the seer to say that he wasn't WW and greenlover's accusations to say that he wasn't mafia!

Also, I think this is really greenlover telling roband to post less because he might draw suspicion otherwise:
greenlover wrote:ebwob: I started working on that analysis two hours ago, btw.

Roband, you post too much. / half joking


I think this is another one of his "I want people to think I'm joking, but I'm not" communications:
greenlover wrote:Also, I look forward to your refutation. I hope you rip it to shreds, honestly.


Notice also, that before JC claimed cop that greenlover was still half pushing the roband lynch (because he knew at that point that no one would go for it), but that he didn't bring it up again after the the cop claim.

That's what I got from my first re-read. I'll probably be going through it again. As I said, I'm willing to vote for either greenlover or roband. This is in your court, webby and lorenz. Expect greenlover and roband to pounce on the lynch if you vote for me.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Sun Aug 07, 2011 1:29 am UTC

EBWOP

greenlover, that's a great move to breadcrumb a power role into your first post, but make it hard enough to find that it wouldn't cause you problems if you had to claim something else later. I suppose if you were claiming cop, you would have pointed out what I pointed out in my last post and highlighted the number of times you used "cop" in your first post D1, as well?
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Sun Aug 07, 2011 2:18 am UTC

Okay, that was a big post, and I simply don't have the time to go through all of it. Instead, I'm just going to mention important facts:

1) Um, a-wan, you do realize that I have been using the word "cop" to describe both roles throughout the entire game, right? In fact, I just looked it up, and the only time I said the word "seer" was when I was describing a post of robands (however, if anyone else looks it up, I would advise adding the word "-canNEVER" to the search, as otherwise it breaks one of my spoilers in the discussion thread). I think the same is true for the word "mafia", though not to the same extent. The reason is I just don't like the confusion that is caused by using two different words to describe the same basic role (reference back to Misnomers original Newbie Werewolf game for proof of this. IIRC, I did it there, too.).

2) I also not quite sure how saying cop a lot is a breadcrumb. My understanding of a breadcrumb is a secret "code" of sorts that you place in a post/series of posts as something you can draw upon later if you need to claim your role. I don't see how saying "cop" a lot fits into that definition. Could you elaborate some more?

3) I finally found something about my actions in this game that separates me from both a-wan and roband. That is that I am so far the only player among us three to actively try to hunt down mafia. I pointed this out yesterday in my analysis of roband (and I think the same applies to a-wan, iirc), but both of them have put lots of effort towards lynching werewolves, but no effort towards lynching mafia. A perfect example of this is yesterday where they were both pro lynching werewolves, even though webby's analysis showed that we had a 71% chance of being better off if we lynched mafia. I was pro lynching mafia, and was 2nd place on most people's lists for the werewolf for it (with the real werewolf being first.). If you believe that I am mafia, you also have to believe that I acting against my faction by - in essence - trying to get myself lynched.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Sun Aug 07, 2011 3:55 am UTC

1. Exactly the claim I said you would make: "I was using 'cop' to mean both roles."

2. I'm sure there are lots of different types of breadcrumbs. You're obviously much more familiar with this and prepared accordingly. I'm not sure if you thought seer would be a better role to claim at the beginning because you hadn't thought it through carefully yet (since claiming cop has more advantages to mafia), or because you saw that it's useful to mafia to keep the seer alive so you thought that if it came to mafia claiming, seer would be most likely to still be alive. As I said, I'm obviously not as experienced with this as you are.

Whatever the case may be, you had obviously changed your mind about what role you were going to claim until webby claimed cop. Which leads to...

3. Getting yourself lynched wouldn't work against your faction if your sacrifice play improved roband's chances of winning enough. JC claimed cop, which thwarted your plans. roband didn't hesitate to claim not cop because you were the one that was supposed to do it. Ibarra wasn't the cop. I wasn't the cop. Lorenz wasn't the cop. If webby had claimed not cop, then you would have been able to claim cop and get the cop killed with the added bonus that you had been strongly attacking roband, so he would be in the clear when you turned up mafia and there would be no cop to check out roband afterwards.

Also, anyone can go through and see that not only did I favor hunting mafia once we had killed a WW, I actually started believing JC was mafia because why would werewolf claim cop? Mafia should claim cop so they can identify the real cop. So saying that I wasn't hunting mafia is easily refutable and greenlover is just hoping he can make people believe it because he thinks no one will fact check. I'll let people do their own read throughs and decide for themselves.

Another thing, greenlover went out of his way to get himself associated with a WW accusation here:

greenlover wrote:Finally, it appears as though folks think I'm a werewolf. I can understand were a-wan is coming from on this (funny how that works out. every. time.), but I don't get Lornez reason. I didn't want to investigate Lornez yesterday, thus I must be a werewolf trying to gain towny cred? But wait, if I had wanted to investigate you, you could argue that I was a werewolf who was trying to get town to waste an investigation, or that I was a werewolf who thought that you were mafia. I honestly don't see how I can win here.

As mafia, he knew that someone else would turn out to be WW, so by making sure he was associated with a WW accusation gets him cleared when someone else turns up WW. He obviously had the inside information that comes from knowing he's mafia, otherwise why was he so confident JC would be WW?
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Sun Aug 07, 2011 4:24 am UTC

Oh, that's what you were saying I was going to claim? Didn't realize it. Sorry for the confusion, then.

a-wan wrote:2. I'm sure there are lots of different types of breadcrumbs. You're obviously much more familiar with this and prepared accordingly. I'm not sure if you thought seer would be a better role to claim at the beginning because you hadn't thought it through carefully yet (since claiming cop has more advantages to mafia), or because you saw that it's useful to mafia to keep the seer alive so you thought that if it came to mafia claiming, seer would be most likely to still be alive. As I said, I'm obviously not as experienced with this as you are.
I was using cop to describe both types of roles even before I breadcrumbed seer. So, I don't see how this works, unless your saying that I was breadcrumbing both roles at the same time? Additionally, I have never seen a breadcrumb that works outside a code structure. Ever. The reason why is because I doubt it would work. I mean, seriously, its like saying that because you talk like you normally talk, you must be ____ role.

a-wan wrote:3. Getting yourself lynched wouldn't work against your faction if your sacrifice play improved roband's chances of winning enough. JC claimed cop, which thwarted your plans. roband didn't hesitate to claim not cop because you were the one that was supposed to do it. Ibarra wasn't the cop. I wasn't the cop. Lorenz wasn't the cop. If webby had claimed not cop, then you would have been able to claim cop and get the cop killed with the added bonus that you had been strongly attacking roband, so he would be in the clear when you turned up mafia and there would be no cop to check out roband afterwards.
Maybe I'm just tired, but why on earth would webby claim not cop? For goodness sakes, lying never benefits town. Ever. And this theory relies upon it.

a-wan wrote:Also, anyone can go through and see that not only did I favor hunting mafia once we had killed a WW, I actually started believing JC was mafia because why would werewolf claim cop? Mafia should claim cop so they can identify the real cop. So saying that I wasn't hunting mafia is easily refutable and greenlover is just hoping he can make people believe it because he thinks no one will fact check. I'll let people do their own read throughs and decide for themselves.
Really? I seem to remember you saying that lynching mafia could be better, but you didn't believe we could figure out who the mafia was. Thus your actions spoke loudly in desiring to lynch the werewolves. I went after someone you now admit is a mafioso on the grounds of them being a mafioso. You went after a werewolf on the grounds of them being a werewolf. That's my point. Anyone can say what they want in a mafia game - its the actions that count, imo.

a-wan wrote:Another thing, greenlover went out of his way to get himself associated with a WW accusation here:

greenlover wrote:Finally, it appears as though folks think I'm a werewolf. I can understand were a-wan is coming from on this (funny how that works out. every. time.), but I don't get Lornez reason. I didn't want to investigate Lornez yesterday, thus I must be a werewolf trying to gain towny cred? But wait, if I had wanted to investigate you, you could argue that I was a werewolf who was trying to get town to waste an investigation, or that I was a werewolf who thought that you were mafia. I honestly don't see how I can win here.

As mafia, he knew that someone else would turn out to be WW, so by making sure he was associated with a WW accusation gets him cleared when someone else turns up WW. He obviously had the inside information that comes from knowing he's mafia, otherwise why was he so confident JC would be WW?
That theory works all fine and dandy until you realize that people were seriously considering me a lynch target based on the grounds of being a werewolf, and that I was nearly selected as the cop target because of it. That would have gotten me lynched today, as webby would have had a positive result, correct?
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby webby » Sun Aug 07, 2011 6:27 am UTC

I'm going to stay out of this until roband and Lorenz post.

A note on the balance complaint though - remember that we've had both investigations hit townies and no scum kills have hit each other. Also, you'd only expect town to have a 1/3 chance of winning because there are three factions. So I think it's pretty fair. Will discuss more after the game. :P
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby roband » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:16 pm UTC

Wow, looks like I'm late to the party.

For the record, I'm the seer (oh, I betcha didn't see that one coming!).

a-wan, your argument is that greenlover and I were distancing? That massive post he put together? Lol. Actual lols, not even internet-speak-got-to-end-my-sentence-with-something-lol ones.

I didn't breadcrumb anything, I've done it before as a power role and not been believed so I don't see the point. Greenlover, that 'breadcrumb' was obscure enough for you to gave gotten half the words in the bloody dictionary into a couple of posts.

Vote: Greenlover for being obvious scum.

Looking back over Greenlover and a-wan's 'suspicion' lists, they always place each other in the bottom half but not close enough to the bottom to be lynch targets. Interesting.

Seeing the two of you arguing like this would lead me to think one of you were town, if I didn't know that you both had to be scum. A pre-planned tactic I guess.

webby, Lorenz - I can't say anything that will convince you that I'm town, I'm sure. Just look back over the game, and go with what you think is right. But do you really think greenlover was distancing from me? He wanted me lynched.

Lynch me now and we lose twenty dollars and my self respect. Lynch a-wan or greenlover and it gets decided tomorrow.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:04 am UTC

1. Notice that roband voted. The fact that he voted before the confirmed town means that he has preference as to who he wants lynched. At this point in the game, the seer has no preference. The mafia does.

2. Notice who roband voted for and who a-wan has been concentrating his efforts on. If you look, a-wan said a grand total of one thing in his mega post about roband (beyond the "roband and greenlover are scum!" parts). That was that roband didn't like FTC. Everything else was focused on me. The fact that they have both focused their efforts on me is strange, no?

But, of course, that is all psychobabble that can easily be refuted with more psychobabble (but, wait, you could have told roband to vote for you/a-wan to focus on you! Hey, I can unvote if I want!). I just find it interesting that I'm the odd one out here.

Anyway, @Webby and Lornez - you probably already know this, but don't vote until you guys have reached a consensus between yourselves. If you two vote for two different people, then we will have lost this game for sure.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby roband » Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:06 am UTC

I don't care which of you we lynch greenlover. I can switch my vote aaaanytime. Look

Unvote
Vote a-wan


It worked!

But seriously, you were the one who made a ridiculous breadcrumb and wasted all your time on that analysis post about me.
You've earned my vote...

Unvote
Vote greenlover
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby webby » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:50 am UTC

I'm still waiting for Lorenz to get back, I have my ideas, but I want him to come to his own conclusions without me influencing him, so I can see if they're in line with mine. Eventually I'll have a proper post looking back.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:32 pm UTC

I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but it feels like roband is trying to bus greenlover. I'm very tempted to use a mafia vote to take out mafia, but it seems very much like I would be playing into a trap somehow.

I'm guessing that the trap is that if I put greenlover at L-1 then greenlover claims this as proof that roband and I are working together. If they decided that since greenlover had a breadcrumb he could use that he would have the stronger case, so they have roband vote for greenlover to try and bait me to do the same. Now they've made me and roband look like a team, and it doesn't matter whether you lynch roband first or me first, as long as we look like a team so that worst case for them is I get lynched tomorrow.

I was trying to figure out why, if greenlover had that breadcrumb, he didn't just come right out with it when he said "everything was settled" from his point of view. He brought up mass claim. Why didn't he just do it?

It's got to be because he wasn't sure yet. If I had turned out to be vanilla and lorenz was seer, then if greenlover revealed the seer breadcrumb, Lorenz would have immediately had him lynched. So he suggests the massclaim so I would reveal my role so he could be sure. Why else would he wait?

And I'm sure greenlover's just baiting me again, but I suppose I can't help falling for it when scum baits me (like I did with e_e--who turned out to be right, by the way, even though I thought for sure she was wrong because I knew I was seer). But I was concentrating my efforts on greenlover because he was the only one around and he was attacking me. Was it just luck that roband waited a day before saying anything? I don't know, but it really feels like they're setting me up.

Notice that there are certain people that both roband and greenlover would never really go after even when everyone else was. When everyone was lynching e_e and voting to investigate Lorenz, greenlover was saying not to investigate Lorenz. When everyone was voting to lynch JC, greenlover never voted for JC and said he preferred a roband lynch. On the other hand, roband suggested an investigation of webby but only to suggest that he was always town and has been buddying him ever since. And the only time roband even raised suspicion against me was when he thought I might be accusing webby.

Obviously, they were each preparing fall back team members they could take down with them. greenlover's team members were JC and Lorenz, and roband's team members were me and webby. Since I'm the only one left that they could possibly set up with one of them, I'm the one they're concentrating on taking down.

In fact, maybe it even plays into their plan to have roband go down so greenlover can take out webby tonight and they're left with Lorenz, who greenlover has gone out of his way to buddy, and it will be much easier to take me down tomorrow without having to convince webby.

So I guess I can only leave this up to webby and lorenz. I will follow your votes because I'm afraid of falling into a trap again if I vote for one of them.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:38 pm UTC

Most of a-wan's post can be summed up in nine words: "I'm being tricked and trapped by roband and greenlover". Since the argument there is a level deeper than something I can really argue against (IE: the only reason why a-wan would have that feeling is if he was seer. His entire post is simply one indirect argument for his being seer.) and isn't based off rationality (its all feelings, remember), I'm going to leave it alone. However, there are a few things I noticed in his post that I find interesting:

First, I find it intriguing that a-wan is now talking about traps and me/roband teaming up on taking him down, but it wasn't that way in his first post. Singing a different tune now? Besides, a-wan - how has roband attempted to get you lynched?

a-wan wrote:But I was concentrating my efforts on greenlover because he was the only one around and he was attacking me.
Eh, no. IIRC, the post you made before my assault on you (the one you still posted, even though you saw my assault) was still focused mostly on me. Additionally, at that point, we didn't know that roband wouldn't post for a day. So, no, that justification doesn't work.

a-wan wrote:I was trying to figure out why, if greenlover had that breadcrumb, he didn't just come right out with it when he said "everything was settled" from his point of view. He brought up mass claim. Why didn't he just do it?
The same reason why I didn't claim seer when FTC was proposed. Its typically a good idea to get a go ahead (or at least input) before you run a strategy. So, why did you force a massclaim but not FTC, a-wan? Either this is a double standard, or (as I suspect) its because you couldn't force FTC, cause you aren't the seer.

a-wan wrote:Notice that there are certain people that both roband and greenlover would never really go after even when everyone else was.
This I find interesting, because a-wan basically defined any positive opinion other than the majority opinion of a certain player as being a scum tell ("buddying"). Also, how was my opinion of JC positive? IIRC, I said he was most likely the final werewolf, but that I preferred a mafioso lynch. Still do, honestly.

Sorry if my posts seem...laid back. I'm basically given up hope of winning at this point (a-wan has acted much townier than I for this entire game), so I'm just having fun with the mafia. Its so much fun to poke holes in arguments you know are false. :D
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 09, 2011 12:38 am UTC

First of all, I know you haven't given up. All you have to do is get webby or Lorenz to vote for me, then both you and roband will jump on me and the game will be over.

Next. Roband, it's so obvious that you're mafia now that the only reason I see for not lynching you today is that I think it will be easier to get you lynched tomorrow after you kill webby.

As for the rest of your post, greenlover...

greenlover wrote:First, I find it intriguing that a-wan is now talking about traps and me/roband teaming up on taking him down, but it wasn't that way in his first post. Singing a different tune now? Besides, a-wan - how has roband attempted to get you lynched?

It's quite clear to me that the two of you thought that as long as I claimed seer that you (greenlover) had the best chance of being believed, so you had to make it look like roband and I were a team. You'd probably guess that I would try to use roband's vote to get you killed. Once I did, then you would turn it around on me and say, "See? They're working together to get me killed." Then it wouldn't matter if roband got lynched first because I'd be on the chopping block tomorrow.

The reason I wasn't talking about traps was because I didn't see them yet. You wanted a mass claim so you could be sure that your breadcrumb would work. roband hadn't voted for you yet, so I couldn't possibly have mentioned that trap until after.

greenlover wrote:
a-wan wrote:But I was concentrating my efforts on greenlover because he was the only one around and he was attacking me.
Eh, no. IIRC, the post you made before my assault on you (the one you still posted, even though you saw my assault) was still focused mostly on me. Additionally, at that point, we didn't know that roband wouldn't post for a day. So, no, that justification doesn't work.

Have you read back through the thread? roband was leading the scum hunt most of the game. He basically got e_e lynched on his own by badgering her into making mistakes. I didn't suspect him until him being mafia was the only possibility. The only time he accused me was to defend you (greenlover) and webby. It's clear to me he was trying to make sure that if you had to take him down that he could take me with him, just like you were trying to do with Lorenz and JC.

And then you were the only one I could respond to because he hadn't shown up yet.

greenlover wrote:
a-wan wrote:I was trying to figure out why, if greenlover had that breadcrumb, he didn't just come right out with it when he said "everything was settled" from his point of view. He brought up mass claim. Why didn't he just do it?
The same reason why I didn't claim seer when FTC was proposed. Its typically a good idea to get a go ahead (or at least input) before you run a strategy. So, why did you force a massclaim but not FTC, a-wan? Either this is a double standard, or (as I suspect) its because you couldn't force FTC, cause you aren't the seer.

First of all, why use the phrase "as I suspect". Shouldn't you know you're the seer? Second, there was no consensus left to get. Lorenz and webby were confirmed town, and you (greenlover) and roband were mafia. The only thing left was for me to claim so that they would know you were mafia. At that point in the game, it seems to me that only mafia would feel uncertain about claiming.

greenlover wrote:
a-wan wrote:Notice that there are certain people that both roband and greenlover would never really go after even when everyone else was.
This I find interesting, because a-wan basically defined any positive opinion other than the majority opinion of a certain player as being a scum tell ("buddying"). Also, how was my opinion of JC positive? IIRC, I said he was most likely the final werewolf, but that I preferred a mafioso lynch. Still do, honestly.

Actually, what you said was:

greenlover wrote:Meh. Still prefer a roband lynch to a JC lynch, but I think that JC has been sufficiently werewolf-like enough to be lynched. And we have a claimed cop, which makes me all sorts of happy [/still likes FTC].

You don't say that you think roband is mafia here and that's why you want him lynched over JC. The only thing that stands out to me here is that you assume he was WW, as mafia would.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 09, 2011 1:18 am UTC

EBWOP

Just caught this.

roband wrote:I didn't breadcrumb anything, I've done it before as a power role and not been believed so I don't see the point.

Smart, roband. Trying to get one more point in greenlover's favor. Basically telling people to believe the breadcrumb.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:06 am UTC

a-wan wrote:It's quite clear to me that the two of you thought that as long as I claimed seer that you (greenlover) had the best chance of being believed, so you had to make it look like roband and I were a team. You'd probably guess that I would try to use roband's vote to get you killed. Once I did, then you would turn it around on me and say, "See? They're working together to get me killed." Then it wouldn't matter if roband got lynched first because I'd be on the chopping block tomorrow.
So, in other words, roband is working really hard to get you lynched by not working really hard to get you lynched. Is that even possible, logically?

a-wan wrote:The reason I wasn't talking about traps was because I didn't see them yet. You wanted a mass claim so you could be sure that your breadcrumb would work. roband hadn't voted for you yet, so I couldn't possibly have mentioned that trap until after.
Hm... That's a good point, actually. You did do some assaulting on my breadcrumb. Though, I don't recall you calling it a trap until your last message.

a-wan wrote:Have you read back through the thread? roband was leading the scum hunt most of the game. He basically got e_e lynched on his own by badgering her into making mistakes. I didn't suspect him until him being mafia was the only possibility. The only time he accused me was to defend you (greenlover) and webby.
The fact that he appeared so towny to you this morning is only a justification for you to focus on him more at the beginning. After all, you need to lynch us both. If I was going to be easy and he was going to be hard, then you should have spent more effort at the beginning attacking him.

a-wan wrote:It's clear to me he was trying to make sure that if you had to take him down that he could take me with him, just like you were trying to do with Lorenz and JC.
Didn't I already respond the the buddying thing earlier? Its starting to get old, honestly.

a-wan wrote:And then you were the only one I could respond to because he hadn't shown up yet.
Responding and attacking are two different things.

a-wan wrote:First of all, why use the phrase "as I suspect". Shouldn't you know you're the seer?
Sure I do. But, in case you didn't notice, I'm trying to use this as yet another reason why you can't be seer. I can't exactly do that if I'm assuming you're aren't seer from the beginning, no?

a-wan wrote:Second, there was no consensus left to get. Lorenz and webby were confirmed town, and you (greenlover) and roband were mafia. The only thing left was for me to claim so that they would know you were mafia. At that point in the game, it seems to me that only mafia would feel uncertain about claiming.
So, you're not big on getting your strategies checked over, even when you have two confirmed town to do it? That's strange.

a-wan wrote:You don't say that you think roband is mafia here and that's why you want him lynched over JC. The only thing that stands out to me here is that you assume he was WW, as mafia would.
Apparently you missed my mega huge analysis post showing (correctly, I might add) that roband = mafia. At that point in the game, the only reason why I would prefer a roband lynch over a JC lynch was if I wanted a mafia lynch over a werewolf lynch. Though, I guess since I didn't actually spell that out, you get a point. Congrats. :)
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby roband » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:48 am UTC

greenlover wrote:At that point in the game, the only reason why I would prefer a roband lynch over a JC lynch was if I wanted a mafia lynch over a werewolf lynch.


No, at that point, the reason you prefer a me lynch is because you know I'm town.

Unvote

I honestly don't care which one of you we lynch. I'll follow webby and Lorenz (where is he, anyway?)
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby roband » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:51 pm UTC

Well, this is boring.

Anyone know if Lorenz is active in his other games?
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby greenlover » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:36 pm UTC

He hasn't logged in for 3 days...
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby a-wan » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:42 pm UTC

Nice, roband. Since I didn't go for the greenlover vote, I see you don't want to get stuck in the situation where it only takes one of Lorenz and webby to lynch your partner.

If greenlover does get lynched, you might as well NK me tonight, because I don't think you could be any more obviously mafia even after webby confirms it.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby roband » Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:31 pm UTC

a-wan wrote:If greenlover does get lynched, you might as well NK me tonight, because I don't think you could be any more obviously mafia even after webby confirms it.


Lol, dude, they get it. You say I'm mafia. You can stop saying it now.
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Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D3: Two Down, Two to Go

Postby webby » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:13 am UTC

Mod: Can we get a deadline extension and/or a replacement for Lorenz?

If no extension, I'll make an analysis post tonight and vote - I'm not sure what happens in the case of a tie?
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