*does a full thread reread*
Current summary of everything:
The order of events will be written in blue. My commentary will be in green, and I will mostly withhold it for my own posts.
1. John Citizen (25)
: Adds perspective to Dr Ug's interpretation. He's right! Leaves me wondering a little about Dr Ug.
: Does the sensible thing
and trusts the mod.(64)
: Misnomer gives a few impressions. His gut feelings are good, I suppose. However, by this point... people have already been discussing all of that at length. Could just be parroting the thread's gestalt decision.
: Corrects me and is confident in lynching scum on day one. Sensible. There are multiple possible reasons for scum voting for scum, or even throwing each other under the bus.(30)
: Argues against assumptions. Effectively counters a-wan's argument against him. Tells jayshu that speaking up is good. Pings mild town.(44)
: Promises to review contributions by people. Yay!(46)
: A promise is fulfilled. And then some. There is some mild analysis of the posts. At the point he does the analysis, my disagreements are: Hausdog should be moved from "scummy" to "ditzy", a completely new class of uninterested
players lurkers. Sruixan should be moved from Neutral to Towny. A-wan should be moved from Towny to neutral. Ditto with weiyaoli and softchews. I should be moved to towny (You can ignore that, if you want. I know how well I trust myself, though.). Dr Ug is straddling towny and neutral. Otherwise, I like what I see.(75)
: Reasonable excuse for lack of content. Wants a middle ground concerning voting patterns. Likes Sruixan's analysis. Cautious about Hausdog and more_people. Liking webby's post, here.
: And now, for something completely off topic... Pings "not paying attention at all". Gains 30 "pissed me off" points. These are to be redeemed at the nearest Fuck Giving Booth. One would find, however, that it is fresh out of fuck to give, at least concerning the reaction of Hausdog's friend to the duckinaglass avatar.
: Finally shows up. Answers the questions. Strategizes about the kill power. The answers are reasonable and make sense. I am not sure I like the idea of limiting the number of kills, especially by a number we all know. Also, how would we decide who kills? We don't even know our teammates. By the way, where were you? First impression is slightly disappointing.(68)
: Reassures Lorenz regarding the deadline. Neutral. Also, give us more content. In this game, "neutral" is "lean scum", due to the player composition.
7. more_people (14)
: "me too"'s Lorenz, advocates a lack of strategy on the town's part. Either a real strong scum ping or he doesn't know what he's talking about. "no strategy", in my view, is throwing one's hands into the wind and devoting yourself to fickle luck in the hopes that it'll help you.(17)
: Criticism of Hausdog. Perhaps picking an easy target? Hell if I know. Certainly legitimate to criticize, at any rate. No ping one way or the other.(36)
: Criticizes weiyaoli's suspicion of jayshu. Scum might be "town" in numbers and using the lynch, but terminology mindfuckery is hardly productive.(70)
: Suspicious of Sruixan and Hausdog. Is now calling strategizing scheming. Seriously? Sruixan and Hausdog? Sruixan, for not reading the entirety of one of your posts despite lots of consistent contribution and a player analysis? And Hausdog, merely for a gut feeling instead of being a lurking player? I'm about to kick your butt off Slappy Island, here! >.< (Can this place please be Slappy Island in the flavor? )(72)
: Forgives Sruixan, answers the questions. Anti-plan forever. Urgh.(76)
: Talks about the metagame in such a way that doesn't directly apply to this game. Not really relevant, but I don't care at this point. I'm almost done.
ROLL! (This is only for fun, and not really a jab at you.
: Says the mod should just be trusted. Hypothesizes the existence of scum power roles with protective abilities, or bad probabilities of a certain strategy succeeding. Good post. First mention of power roles on the scum side, something which seemed forgotten by the other players who spoke.(39)
: Criticism of my "plan". Reasonable enough. Discussion is good, though, so talking about strategies is a good thing anyway. I guess we should look for a balance. What can we talk about without potentially revealing anything key? That's the question. Although, I've already responded to this post.(42)
: Proclaims to have seen the light of discussion (I'm getting tired by this point. You can tell by the florid phrasing.
Notices my post and reaches a middle ground. Reasonable post is reasonable.(58)
: Answers the questions I don't have any arguments there.
, doesn't like the idea but can't find another way to avoid doubling up on kills If we needed to be pretty damn sure of a player's alignment in order to kill, then only existing cops would kill. Not something we're guaranteed to have. Remember the numbers breakdown if we all withhold kills? That's something to think about. Also, the criticism of Jayshu's self-placement seems a bit... pointless to me.(74)
: Softchews has stayed up too late. Dislikes more_people's posts. Waffles on Sruixan, due to infiltration possibility. Delicious scum rolls. Tasty. Also, all everything in this post remains possible. Except literal scum rolls.
: Agrees with weiyaoli, admits he had a strategy that was foiled by the word of E_P, essentially states a desire to spread the kills out. Seems like a neutral post, no real content. The only interesting thing is the desire to spread kills out. That way lies the likelihood of town vs. town kills rising. Perhaps he hadn't considered it, or perhaps he's really scum. I don't have a good read on him. At the same time, it might leave redirectors with a better chance of mucking around with kills that would've hit scum. All in all, bad strategizing.(4)
: Wants to see if people can come up with reasons why it's a bad idea to talk about who is being targeted. Also claims to be baiting scum into slipping up/getting town to reveal towniness. Technically reasonable, but the circumstances make it seem like making excuses.(6)
: Is corrected by the thought of scum powers. Dismayed by a lack of obvious strategies. Thinks voting for a lynch is scummy. Wants to target a the scum as they bandwagon. Seems reasonable at first, but the fact is that scum and town are very likely to have mixed votes. After all, we don't know who's town. It's possible that two town players or two scum players wind up on the lynch block. Also, it's possible that town could vote for a townie in a fast manner due to playing badly.(11)
: Resigned to a townie getting lynched. Thinks that the way to get scum lynched day one is to bandwagon scum while they're distancing with votes. Flies in the face of what he said at (6).
Votes Lorenz for an arbitrary reason. Voting=scummy is bad logic, as has been stated before.(28-29)
: Makes a lot of points. In order, they are: "I wanted information regarding what the scum know, scum mustn't kill with merely a plurality, scum mustn't kill with merely a plurality, vote for webby because scum couldn't possibly want to lynch scum, Lorenz voted and the vote is the scum tool, scum mustn't kill with merely a plurality, town voting is good, OH WOW TOWN CAN KILL TOWN?, does town have to kill?" Wanting information is good, scum lynching or with or without a plurality seems like a red herring to me, seems oddly sure of not being able to lynch scum especially when scum have thrown each other under the bus before, yet asking if we have to kill on day one is plausibly a town action. I disagree with his vote on webby very strongly, and it's possible that scum would try to reduce the amount of kills being made (especially if people claim to withhold their kills, thus increasing the likelihood of kill redirects) In totality, he's pinging scum.(33)
: Strategy regarding town on town kills. Sound logic regarding night one kills, but falls apart when we become the majority, as that is when we finally control the lynch. An obvious scum target when we're the majority is when we all lynch the guy, not double-team with NKs!(35)
: Nitpicking, allows the possibility of a scum lynch (surprising, given his still present vote on webby)
, still wants to use the lynch votes to determine NK targets. Seems unhelpful. Possibly trying to make things predictable.(48)
: Analyzes the analysis made by webby, and makes a few alterations that are stated. I would argue that John Citizen and Misnomer are also inactive lurkers, at only one post each. Also, that the "great idea" isn't so great, though it looks like it is at a first glance. I like the point made about more_people and planmaking. I still say that getting a scum lynched is reasonable.(55)
: Lurkervote: ENGAGE! Hausdog is voted for. Also, statistically exploiting the scum. Numbers are fun! I'll answer the three questions here. If you tl;dr'ed this, it's your fault for not catching my responses, damn it. Play the game! Question one: The plan is good for the reasons outlined by a-wan and because scum will prefer to vote for those of the three who are town, revealing our targets. Question two: Locking in people seems like a way to dodge discussion of other people for the moment. I don't like that. Let the list be fluid. Question three: Don't lock it in. Duuuuuh. Also, see the list at the bottom for the three I consider most scummy if you really must have three.
10. weiyaoli (1)
: Town:Scum ratio speculation. Settles on 6 town:9 scum. Seems like reasonable speculation. It's also the most obvious. Good to get out there quickly, though.(10)
: Ignores the vote. Pokes holes in a-wan's plan. This seems to be exactly the sort of post I'd make in this situation as either town or scum. It doesn't make accusations, it points out flaws, it sidesteps the problem of defending against a supportless vote. Good tactics. I just wish I could get a read on it.(21)
: Agrees with webby Re:scum playing cautiously/distancing Again, the possibility of bussing does not crop up. Incidentally, who remembers Frogmafia?(23)
: Quotes E_P Re: power roles. Tit...(27)
: Suspects Jayshu. Wants information. Sound post. Short, though.(43)
: Says that more_people's most recent post was incorrect, voting early and often is good, and prods lurkers. Me likey this post. Me likey a lot.(52)
: Weiyaoli notices how unfeasible targetclaiming is. Quite unfeasible, I say! Good post.(54)
: Lurkervote: ENGAGE! Lorenz is voted for. Dislikes his early contributions. He has a fever, and the only prescription is moar content. Weiyaoli is looking good to me.(59)
: Criticism of Jayshu. The two of them are getting a bit personal in their argument by this point. Any arguing between them at this point will not ping me. It could conceivably be town vs. town unknowingly bickering. Of course, it could also be town and scum. I don't fucking know at this point.
: Likes a-wan's strategy at (6). Has reservations, though. Votes weiyaoli, seemingly at random. Ah, the classic "discussion vote". It tends to produce discussion just fine... However, the discussion is mostly about the voter, and not the votee.(13)
: Ignores the real reason for Sruixan's post in order to criticize or accuse Sruixan. Pings scum or inattentive town.(53)
: Unvotes. Promises to post more later, wants town to vote a lot and that those who don't deserve to get killed. Uh, okay? I like the sentiment regarding voting, but condemning death? Let's make a cumulative assessment of whether we think each person is scum or not and include their voting status in that assessment as another data point. Does that sound more reasonable? Yes? Good.
: "I'm here, but I'll post content after I have a grasp of things." Probably didn't have much time to make a post.(26)
: Thinks town should only vote to move the lynch away from town, and that town should, perhaps, lurk. Seems a bit distracted. Seems to be suffering from a bit of terminology confusion. Also, BAD STRATEGIES ALL AROUND. Also, isn't the town already "given away"? Scum members know the scum team's other members. Either inattentive, or scum. Leaning more toward scum.(31-32)
: Webby convinces him of discussion being good, remembers that we can kill after being lynched, is late to recognizing the likely existence of scum powers, refers to the collective town as... they? "we" are not "they", are we, jayshu? Places you firmly in the gray zone with this post.(56)
: A lovely numbers breakdown concerning withholding kills. I like this post.(57)
: Jayshu's player analysis. Given the information he's demonstrated he knows, this is an excellent analysis. My complaints:t softchews should not be the most scummy neutral, as E_P has essentially confirmed the presence of individual power players in the rule post. Now, as town powers need scum powers to balance out and vice versa, we can be assured that there are scum power roles out there. Also, as I am not in his perspective, I do not look so harshly upon weiyaoli (at this point in my analysis, he ranks just behind Dr Ug in towniness. And finally, a-wan shouldn't be leading the town list. That spot goes to Sruixan, followed by Dr Ug.(60)
: Responses to softchews and weiyaoli. Keeps a cool head regarding weiyaoli within this post. Advocates all town people using the kill power.Reasonable.(62)
: Stresses the importance of posting. Doesn't have any reply to Chandani's post. Ideally, you'd have read the post before replying.(66-7)
: Votes for Lorenz. Mostly to avoid being lynched. Give us more content, at least...(69)
: Undoes his last post, effectively, and nitpicks the disparity between flavor and reality. ... Fucking seriously? Content! Less care about the flavor! AAAAA-
: Same as (7), wants to strategize.(12)
: Returns with content. Tries to find a reason for the targetted-kill method to have been discouraged. First to propose the thought of the kill-redirector. Strong town ping, bringing up that power. It seems like a role that would obviously exist, but no scum would be likely to mention its existence, even if the particular scum didn't know of it. After all, the mod already discouraged that strategy. Another reason could have been found, to give a 'speculating' scum an out.(15)
: Gives Lorenz some scathing words about what is thought about suppressing discussion. I approve.(34)
: Sruixan is optimistic about our odds. Criticizes webby's assuming the likely amount of kills. Quite reasonable, though certain word choices webby made dilutes the criticism.(37)
: A breakdown of what the most optimistic scenario with a starting composition of 5t/10s and two town deaths before the dawn of day two.Quite helpful. In my opinion, narrows down the starting composition to either 6t/9s or 7t/8s. Town pings.(49)
: Notices the flaws in Dr Ug's plan. Doesn't realize that it's a pretty shoddy plan that can't really be salvaged, due to how open we're being with who we think is scum. Especially with scum powers floating about.(63)
: A player analysis! In my estimation, pretty damn good. I'd have placed weiyaoli at the lower half of the neutral category (closer to scummy), but that's just my feel. Same with Jayshu. Then again, perhaps I'm a bit more cautious with who I consider scummy. Perhaps too cautious, considering the fact that they make up the majority of the player composition.(65)
: Things that bug Sruixan. One is important. The other is irrelevant, save for causing less annoyance if the advice is taken. Remember: Suspect people regardless of how much they jabber. Trust in signal, not noise.(71)
: Replies to other people. Boils down to "scum can manipulate anything, but we'll always be able to see through it in the end because that's how we roll." Still hasn't answered the questions. Reasonable post.(73)
: A moment's thought about locking things in being bad. Reasonable, if it's assumed that the original three in the selection have a good chance of being townies.
14. Not A Raptor (18)
: Wary of votes, thinks about the setup, gets corrected by the mod, gets told to read the goddamn rules. (38)
: The first day/night cycle is make-or-break, throwing strategies out like candy is good, I like people who talk a whole bunch because they're good for the game. Did I mention discussion is good? It's good. Also, smugness concerning the "brilliance" of throwing strategies around.(41)
: Clarifies the context of an earlier sentiment (mentioned by Dr Ug), considers softchew's criticism and takes it into account, critiques Dr Ug's response.(77)
: I have found a post... and I will call it... This Post.
21. Dr Ug(20)
: Corrects me, role and setup speculation Mentions several possible scum power roles that hadn't before been thought of. Town ping.
, criticizes and votes for a-wan over Lataro, gives more explanation for his vote of a-wan than his suspicion of Lorenz. Seems odd, to me. Lorenz, at this point, sticks out as more obviously unhelpful, due to the (unmentioned by Dr Ug) criticism of Sruixan/silencing of discussion.(22)
: Weiyaoli's quote triggers the realization that other shared faction powers aren't there, but that individual powers are likely to remain. In other words: no new content. However, his referring to the scum knowing who each other are as "all-knowing town" strikes me as an interesting confusion in terms. It may just be continuing the terminology of post (20) as town vs. bunch of mutually winning SKs, but it doesn't sit well with me either. I will remain cautious regarding that suspicion, though. Dr Ug has been helpful, after all.(24)
: Goes to reread the rules. ... tat. Neither post (23) nor post (24) contained anything worth reading, in my eyes. >.<(40)
: Thwacks softchews with the metaphorical newspaper. Instavote. Discussion is good, and questioning that is BLASPHEMY! While he makes the point to educate regarding discussion, he definitely overreacts in both tone and action. May just be to drive the point home, but instantly voting is too harsh for being done to a new player. It's conceivable that he's going for an easy target.(45)
: Unvotes, promises future content. Seems like he's backing down in as reasonable a manner as possible. Seems fair, anyway.(47)
: Comes up with a potential strategy for avoiding doubling up on kills. It only really works if we don't publicize who we're suspicious of. Try again, man.(50-51)
: Strategizes around the flawed strategy, the situation of the lynched townie (targetting the third or fourth voter?), and reporting kill targets. The lynched townie does have more information, but I dislike the idea of predictable killing. Also, I see muddy waters in the future of target claiming.
Oh, and Dr Ug's having fun. Nice to know.
SUMMARY AND SCUMLIST
As you might be able to tell from the way the above post was written, I wrote it in the order that the blue numbers indicate, and not directly up-to-down. Please take that and the fact that my views have shifted around during the composition of this post to accommodate information as I learned it. This particularly applies to the scumlist that I post below. You will notice that it will not correspond to the scumlist sneak peeks that are in the above post-by-post breakdown. In fact, those sneak peeks might even contradict each other due to the evolution of my opinion. The information down here, however, will remain consistent.
As for actual content, I will begin with a possibility that many have overlooked and bears repeating down here: Scum bussing each other and deliberately voting away the weak links in their team. I view it as a larger probability than has been thus far considered, considering the fact that we have multiple lurkers (NoS, John Citizen, et al.), incompetents (those who are heavily suspected by many people at this point), and the fact that scum want to distance themselves from a scum identity. If you vote for somebody who can't help but look bad, and that person turns up scum, ask yourselves this: was that lynch too easy? If so, do not automatically consider a vote for that person to be a towny ping.
And now, my scumlist:
NOT ON THE SCALE DUE TO LURKINESS/LOW CONTENT: Necklace of Shadow, John Citizen, Chandani, Misnomer, Hausdog
NOT ON THE SCALE DUE TO INHERENT BIAS: Not A Raptor (ME!)
SCUM END OF LIST
POINT OF EQUIVALENCE
TOWN END OF LIST
The area between the lines is "neutral". Due to the nature of the game, however "true neutral" is the area of the neutral zone on the town side of the point of equivalence. The area on the scum side is "lean scum".
And now, to follow through on my list...Vote: more_people
That is both a command to the entire player list (to vote more, not necessarily for more_people, although voting for more people is okay, I guess) and, itself, a vote.