U.S. Republican Primary

[buddy431]

It's that time of the U.S. election cycle again - the primary campaigns are getting into full swing. We've had a couple threads on some news in relation to the Republican primary contest, which I've linked below, but I feel that it's time to start a centralized thread, as this will be heating up over the next year or so.

Other threads:

Several potential candidates sign a controversial marriage pledge in early July

Rick Perry held a Christian Rally on August 6th

The reason I'm starting this thread now is the result from an Ames Straw Poll, in which Bachmann and Dr. Paul (Really? Still with the modding? You guys are immature.) came out well ahead, and in which T-Paw has decided that he doesn't have enough support to run. It's sad that the actual competent politicians gets beat out by a couple of flakes, but what's even more scary is that a non-binding poll of 17,000 people from a decidedly non-representative slice of likely Republican voters has this much influence. Here's an interesting article on the nature of the event itself - it seems like it'd be a fun event to visit, even if I'm not likely to actually vote Republican in the general election.

It should be noted that the actual primary elections and caucuses don't get underway for quite a while, with Iowa's caucus on February 6th, and New Hampshire's primary probably on February 14th. However, I'm sure that lots of news articles will be generated in the meantime, so it's probably time to start a centralized discussion.

[The Reaper]

Gary Johnson stayed in NH for the most part. He did have this to say about Pawlenty dropping.

Governor Pawlenty’s decision to end his campaign is his to make, and I respect that decision. He and his many supporters have put forth a great effort, and should be applauded for it. As Republicans survey a new list of candidates today, including the departure of a candidate who is credible, experienced and who had a real record to run on, it is appropriate to question the inflated role of an event like the Ames Straw Poll in the process. That a pay-to-play gathering in Iowa six months before the first real ballots are cast can be such a qualifying — or disqualifying — event is something the media and tens of millions of Republican voters need to think about. A lot of voices have not been heard yet, and it is far too early for the ‘system’ to be picking winners and losers.

If there is a message from Ames, it is that this race is wide open and that the vast majority of Republicans and Independents are still looking for the candidate who can win the White House in 2012.

[TheGrammarBolshevik]

Dr. Paul (Really? Still with the modding? You guys are immature.)

T-Paw

[Vaniver]

I think I'm rooting for Johnson this time around, actually. Paul appears to be ramping up his social conservatism.

[CorruptUser]

Romney here. Can't stomach Bachman, Santorum or Perry, and the Ronpaul is unpalatable for reasons I'm not fully sure of.

[Silas]

I'm disappointed. I thought this was going to be about next Tuesday's election, when I'm working in the polls. But I guess nobody cares about the vote on the Republican candidate for sheriff or the uncontested races for the county supervisor nominations.

[buddy431]

Dr. Paul (Really? Still with the modding? You guys are immature.)

T-Paw

T-Paw is at least a nickname for Pawlenty that is actually being fairly widely used, including by the former governor himself. "The Ronpaul" is only used by the immature moderators on this forum who think it's funny to change editors' posts without their permission.

[Endless Mike]

"The Ronpaul" is only used by the immature moderators on this forum who think it's funny to change editors' posts without their permission.

given this reaction, I think they are right.

[Princess Marzipan]

Dr. Paul (Really? Still with the modding? You guys are immature.)

T-Paw

T-Paw is at least a nickname for Pawlenty that is actually being fairly widely used, including by the former governor himself. "The Ronpaul" is only used by the immature moderators on this forum who think it's funny to change editors' posts without their permission.

"The Ronpaul" is a filter that's been in place for quite some time - longer than you have been, if I recall correctly. You seem to be taking it as a personal slight, when in fact it has nothing to do with you. Are you here for political discussion, or to take issue with wordfilters?

[CorruptUser]

Honestly, I would like "his name was Ronald Paulson", but that's just me.

[Jahoclave]

Well, it looks like Bachman now holds an early lead in America's Next Top Fox News Pundit.

And if put to anything but a real election, the Ronpaul could win any vote, hell he'd win American Idol if they let him on.

[acablue]

Joe Scarborough says Michele Bachmann is a joke and has no chance of winning

And if put to anything but a real election, the Ronpaul could win any vote, hell he'd win American Idol if they let him on.

I wonder why that is. Do the concerned libertarian types like to come out to these rallies more than your average Joe? You always see the most radical (yes, I know, his supporters hate being called radical) candidates coming out on top during these early straw polls, but they never win anything.

[mmmcannibalism]

There is a part of me that really really wants Herman Cain(the pokemon master) to win just to watch every racists head explode repeatedly.

[Jahoclave]

There is a part of me that really really wants Herman Cain(the pokemon master) to win just to watch every racists head explode repeatedly.

We have to choose between: The black guy and THE BLACK GUY!?

Suddenly, the monarchy doesn't seem so bad to them.

[Velict]

Joe Scarborough says Michele Bachmann is a joke and has no chance of winning

And if put to anything but a real election, the Ronpaul could win any vote, hell he'd win American Idol if they let him on.

I wonder why that is. Do the concerned libertarian types like to come out to these rallies more than your average Joe? You always see the most radical (yes, I know, his supporters hate being called radical) candidates coming out on top during these early straw polls, but they never win anything.

You have to pay $30 to vote in a straw poll that has no effect on anything, so really it's just a measure of who has the largest base of activist supporters (Paul's Revolution vs. Bachmann's Tea Party, in other words). I don't think many "average" voters, or even many average primary voters, participate in the straw poll.

It's also important to recognize that the two frontliners - Romney and Perry - didn't formally participate in this straw poll.

[sardia]

Denigrate the straw poll all you want, but it is still a statistically significant leading indicator of who has a good campaign. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... y-matters/

[Jahoclave]

Denigrate the straw poll all you want, but it is still a statistically significant leading indicator of who has a good campaign. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... y-matters/

Popular, not good. There's really nothing good about those campaigns.

[Mittagessen]

Denigrate the straw poll all you want, but it is still a statistically significant leading indicator of who has a good campaign. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... y-matters/

Uhhm nope. Historically, it has been just slightly better than tossing a coin.

[Fantastic Idea]

Honestly, I would like "his name was Ronald Paulson", but that's just me.

Good thing nobody cares what you'd like.
Seriously, people not getting The Ronpaul have clearly not read the Obamadammerung, which I personally recommend as an amusing read.
http://randomactsofshark.blogspot.com/2 ... pdate.html

Every single person in the US Republican Primary horrifies me, except maybe for what's-his-name, the former ambassador.
Ronpaul talks about freedom, which is for white males, it seems, and Michelle Bachmann is happier making her own reality than in ours, Romney believes Corporations are People, Rick Perry wants to rule the country as a new Prophet of the Christian God, and Tim Pawlenzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Oh sorry trailed off there a bit.

Great show of IQ and EQ there in Iowa, itellyawhat.

[emceng]

and Tim Pawlenzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

And this shows one of the many reasons our pundit-ocracy is such a shit system. Of the candidates in the straw poll, Pawlenty was the only reasonable choice. I like some of Paul's positions, but he also has some that could be considered crazy. While I don't want Pawlenty to be President, he was the only real choice here. Bachman is a fucking psycho, and yet she wins this thing?

I'd link to the Wondermark comic about visionary politicians, but it's blocked at work.

[Fantastic Idea]

I find it hard to qualify any hopeful as 'reasonable' if they thought we didn't need to raise the debt ceiling.

[CorruptUser]

The debt ceiling should just be tied to inflation already, since it naturally shrinks otherwise.

[broken_escalator]

I agree, I want to vote for someone who isn't against raising the roof.

Spoiler:

[Tirian]

Denigrate the straw poll all you want, but it is still a statistically significant leading indicator of who has a good campaign. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... y-matters/

Uhhm nope. Historically, it has been just slightly better than tossing a coin.

Wow, read the article. The correlation between the results of a coin flip and the Iowa caucuses is 0, and the correlation between your vote share in the Ames straw poll and the Iowa caucuses is 0.58. Despite any opinions one might have on the spectacle, that's a significant observation, particularly when you further observe (as Mr. Silver does) that the correlation between the caucus results and even local polls is quite a bit lower. It's not all that surprising, since caucuses are also about having strong organizational skills and the ability to spread money around to a relatively small number of players even if it isn't quite as cynical as a poll tax.

[Izawwlgood]

Romney's not that bad, mostly, but if Bachman or Perry go anywhere, I'll join the bandwagon of figuring out nice countries to flee too.

[Triangle_Man]

I find it hard to qualify any hopeful as 'reasonable' if they thought we didn't need to raise the debt ceiling.

That aside, I think the logic for not raising the debt ceiling is along the lines of 'we can't have the government keep spending into infinity forever and ever, we have to cut them off and make it pay off it's debt first'.

I can agree with the 'pay off ze debt' part, but I'm not sure not raising the debt ceiling would be a good idea.

[Vaniver]

I wonder why that is. Do the concerned libertarian types like to come out to these rallies more than your average Joe?

Yes. the Ronpaul has an energized, rich, tiny core of supporters who can dominate straw polls but only make up about 5% of the Republican primary voters.

Every single person in the US Republican Primary horrifies me, except maybe for what's-his-name, the former ambassador.

Check out Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. Among other things, he supports abortion and opposes the Patriot Act.

[Heisenberg]

I think the logic for not raising the debt ceiling

There wasn't any logic involved. The people who aren't in power tried paint themselves as hard-asses by claiming that they wouldn't have raised the debt ceiling. They're on the campaign trail and they're all talking the big talk, knowing that that talk has no consequences.

[CorruptUser]

Check out Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. Among other things, he supports abortion and opposes the Patriot Act.

And he climbed Mt Everest! And is a Straight-edge, but doesn't demand you be one too! Oh, he wants us out of Libya, Afghanistan, AND Iraq! Awesome.

So, Romney with Johnson as VP? Or other way around?

[Mittagessen]

Wow, read the article. The correlation between the results of a coin flip and the Iowa caucuses is 0, and the correlation between your vote share in the Ames straw poll and the Iowa caucuses is 0.58. Despite any opinions one might have on the spectacle, that's a significant observation, particularly when you further observe (as Mr. Silver does) that the correlation between the caucus results and even local polls is quite a bit lower. It's not all that surprising, since caucuses are also about having strong organizational skills and the ability to spread money around to a relatively small number of players even if it isn't quite as cynical as a poll tax.

The correlation between the result of the Iowa caucus and the result of the Ames straw poll is .58, the correlation between the the caucus results and the Des Moines register poll is .39. Factoring in the miniscule N any conclusion drawn from the straw poll are going to be as reliable as reading tea leaves.

[Lucrece]

Anything but Romney. I'll take Bachmann over Romney. She's batshit crazy but at least her awful convictions are sincere.

Romney's egomaniacal pondscum and I just want to see him in shambles when he realizes that he can't buy his way into any position of power he wants. Fickle politics, triangulating little dipshit. No, thanks. I already had enough of that in Clinton.

Not that any of the GOP are electable. One's a malevolent Mormon CEO. The other....comes from Texas (and that brings a lot of baggage politically).

Democrats need to focus less on the presidential race and actually start successfull campaigns for Congress seats. What good is a Democrat president when all his campaign goals are spitefully being blackballed by Republican majorities and filibusters?

They need to get populist real quick if they want to beat Republicans.

[Mittagessen]

Check out Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. Among other things, he supports abortion and opposes the Patriot Act.

He sounds far too reasonable. I'm astonished that he hasn't been kicked out of the party, being almost indistuingishable from most Democrats.

[CorruptUser]

Anything but Romney. I'll take Bachmann over Romney. She's batshit crazy but at least her awful convictions are sincere.

So, better to be batshit crazy than to be someone who can say "you know what? I was wrong in the past and learned things, and this is what I've learned is a smarter position to take"?

[EsotericWombat]

Not only does it cost thirty bucks to vote at Ames, but candidates get to pay your entrance fee for you. And they bid cash money for preferable tent placement (the Ronpaul won the bidding at $31K)

Until it became clear that Perry was going to run, I was calling it for Bachmann, but it's about to get really weird, really fast. In Perry we have a quasi-secessionist who "balanced" his budget one year with the help of the Federal government that he wants so badly to get off his back, "balanced" it the next year by delaying payments by a day so that it carried over into the next fiscal year, and puffs out his chest at all the job growth in Texas, despite the fact that 37% are minimum wage (highest percentage in the country), some of them come from a Chinese telecom company that he welcomed with open arms despite the fact that they've been embargoed from merging with American companies over security concerns (look for Huntsman to capitalize on that if he can reconcile it with his good guy persona), and all of them are bolstered by rising oil prices.

Can Romney challenge his record on jobs, what with Massachusetts ranking 37th in job growth under his tenure, and his history of stripping companies for profit--job losses be damned-- at Bain Capital?

Nope.

Can Bachmann, whose only contributions to job growth have come from request for funds from the stimulus bill that she said hasn't created any jobs?

Nope.

What remains to be seen is whether or not Perry gets attacked by Republicans for ensuring the execution of an innocent man, vetoing a bill that would illegalize texting while driving, vetoing a law that would prevent the use of eminent domain for fun and profit, and covering up the fact that some of his appointees to the Texas Youth Commission were pedophiles (with an assist from the Bush-era DOJ).

He also wants to end Medicaid, but that's not necessarily a fringe position in the primary season.

Karl Rove and co. hate his breathing guts and are going to spend their money accordingly, but it's hard to say if the primary contenders are going to take a break from all saying basically the same stupid bullshit to exploit his weaknesses. There are downsides for Romney either way, Bachmann's just as crazy as Perry, and nobody else seems to have the bandwidth at the moment.

As it stands, Bachmann has the advantage in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, and Perry in South Carolina. Florida is going to be interesting, in the "may you live to see interesting times" sense.

We may be headed for a brokered convention, as I don't think that any of the three's egos would allow them to drop out


Not that any of them are actually going to win the general election, but a Rick Perry or Michelle Bachman nomination could be disastrous for down-ticker GOP-ers

[Garm]

Anything but Romney. I'll take Bachmann over Romney. She's batshit crazy but at least her awful convictions are sincere.

So, better to be batshit crazy than to be someone who can say "you know what? I was wrong in the past and learned things, and this is what I've learned is a smarter position to take"?

But Romney doesn't do that. He seems to think "What have the pundits been saying about my positions?" or "What do is Michelle Bachmann saying these days?" and then hews more closely to whatever stupidity they're blathering about. He's done the flip-flop-flip so many times that it's impossible to tell what his positions are or what they will be tomorrow. At one point he may have been a reasonable member of the business community (tho' really his wealth comes from stripping companies, laying off all the workers and then collecting a lot of cash) but now he's just another member of the crew in the GOP nomination Clown Car.

[EsotericWombat]

I see it as more of a Ouija board. All hands on the planchette, and when asked, "will you do any of the things necessary to aid our stagnating recovery, the planchette zips straight to "No."

[podbaydoor]

Huntsman is the only one that actually seems to be aware that if he's elected, he will be governing actual human beings.

The rest have given no indication that they even pay lip service to "life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" for citizens that they don't like, who make up wide swathes of the country. Maybe the Ronpaul, sometimes, but I haven't seen him do anything to stand against the social conservatism tide.

[Garm]

The Republicans, and especially the Tea Party part of them, aren't really interested in actual governance. I like this bit from TPM:

The Tea Party movement, as an idea, was originally about anger at the way things turned out after 2008. Congress had been taken over by Democrats, and President Obama came into office after a change election with high approval ratings and the political capital to make that change. Then, surprisingly, those Democrats didn't work to enact Republican policies, they proposed and passed a few of their own. This was not how government is supposed to work, according to some very conservative Americans.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/tea-party-movement-getting-americans-steamed.php?ref=fpa

[Endless Mike]

Maybe the Ronpaul, sometimes, but I haven't seen him do anything to stand against the social conservatism tide.

This is because he largely agrees with social conservatism, just that it shouldn't be codified in laws.

[EsotericWombat]

Except the part where he believes that the states should have the power to ban abortion and that they should use that power to ban abortion.