xkcd

by **roband** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:26 am UTC

Generic Rules (Slightly edited, so make sure you read them):

Spoiler:

Day sessions will be referred to as ‘The Build Up’ and Night sessions as ‘The Trick’.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:47 am UTC

Yay! Game starting!

Got my pm.

(No doves were harmed in the making of this game)

by **Misnomer** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:53 am UTC

Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, gather round! Gather round and prepare to be amazed by the impossible feats of I, the Mysterious Misnomer! Prepare to be stunned, ladies and gentlemen, as I defy the very laws that govern our reality, and deliver to you such magical acts for which there can be no rational explanation!

Observe, ladies and gentlemen, this ordinary top hat! As you can see, it is a plain ordinary top hat, with no secret compartments or anything of the like. Observe also, ladies and gentlemen, that what I have in my other hand is a very real, living, breathing specimin of the family Leporidae, more commonly known as a rabbit! Watch, ladies and gentlemen, as I place my hat on this very ordinary tabletop, and as I place this very much living rabbit in this very ordinary hat. Then gasp, ladies and gentlemen, as I strike this match, and set the contents of my hat ablaze!

But do not fear, ladies and gentlemen! For observe, with two taps of my magic wand, and the magic words Yakko, Wakko and Dot, the fire in my hat is no more! And ladies and gentlemen, as I prepare to empty to contents of my hat, be prepared not for the sight of charred rabbit bones, but for the sight of... doves!

*tips hat, causing several doves to fly out, and also revealing a large rabbit-themed banner with the words 'I confirm' on it*

Thank you ladies and gentlemen, thank you! You've been watching the Mysterious Misnomer, and I'll be here all week folks! Thank you!

by **a-wan** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:30 pm UTC

Confirm.

I don't have a rabbit or doves at the moment, but there's chicken available after every show at a very reasonable price.

by **Adam H** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:38 pm UTC

Confirmatory of the role.

Misnomer! You killed that rabbit, man!

by **Paimon** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:07 pm UTC

Confiming.

by **a-wan** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:04 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Misnomer! You killed that rabbit, man!

No body, no crime. Would you like some chicken?

I'm assuming after everybody confirms we'll be given some direction, right?

by **roband** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:21 pm UTC

That is correct.

by **greenlover** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:56 pm UTC

confirm

by **webby** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:43 pm UTC

Confirm.

by **roband** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:15 am UTC

Ok, so CJ is the only one not to confirm, he's also not read his role PM yet.

Let's get things started now and I'll give him 12 hours (or so) to arrive. This is a turbo, remember

Please re-read the original post which will shortly be edited to include the rules and a player list, etc.

Flavour coming soon, you can start after that.

by **roband** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:20 am UTC

Good evening and welcome to Magicians an Xkcdmafia magic show.
Prepared to be shocked. Prepare to be amazed. Prepare to not have a clue what is actually going on!
4 members of the audience will be selected at random, from those who expressed interest in the lobby. Mixed with them will be our 2 magicians and their assistants - dressed as members of the public.
Before each trick, one person will be asked to leave the stage and take no further part in the action, and then the magic begins!

If the following people could make their way to the stage, you have been selected to take part:

cjdrum
a-wan
greenlover
webby
Misnomer
Gopher of Pern
Paimon
Adam H

The Build Up for the first trick will commence now...

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:29 am UTC

I'm pretty sure cjdrum has no internet over the weekend, so don't expect him til monday (It's currently saturday night here.)

You know, the trickses will be awfully dull if the magicians aren't here :p

So, speculation time:

Good magician and assistant, and bad magician and assistant. Assistants might be roleblockers. Good magician cop, bad magician godfather. That would be a simple set up.

Or they might have some powers during the trick. I can imagine the scum NK will be flavoured something like a disappearing act, with one of us disappearing.

If this was a vanilla setup, is it better to NL early or late, with the even numbers? Assuming 1 NK, if we mislynch once, it becomes 4:2, a second leaves us at 2:2, a no win situation, barring strange powers. So at 4:2 we should NL, as we will get a better shot at 3:2 of lynching scum.

Turbo is gonna make it hard to scum hunt on day1, the hardest day to find scum anyway. Lets see how we go.

by **Paimon** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:51 am UTC

Looks like NL is No Lynch? Isn't the entire power of the town the ability to have a majority of people with good intentions trying to lynch the bad guy? Seems a bit strange to avoid doing the one thing that can build evidence for us.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:23 am UTC

When it is 4 town v 2 scum, it can be better to no lynch, as mislynching in that situation leads to a scum win, while no lynching doesn't. It isn't a clear rule, but it is an option when there is an even number of players. This situation is why mafia games tend to stick with an odd number of people. See spolier for details.

Spoiler:

by **webby** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:51 am UTC

Obviously it's necessary to balance the possibility of nightkill preventing powers with the advantages gained by no lynching early (ie we have to pick two scum from seven instead of eight). I think the flavour would fit the good magician being any of a cop (they could work out the trick etc.), a doctor (they could make the person reappear) or a roleblocker (they could somehow use their powers to stop the evil magician).

I think right now, with eight players, and not knowing whether there is a doctor/roleblocker, we lynch today. If it becomes 4-2, then probably No Lynch, although it might be worth some sort of claim at that stage.

by **webby** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:54 am UTC

Oh and I'm not sure about assistants - maybe they're back-up roles?

by **a-wan** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:12 am UTC

I usually don't have access over the weekends either, but since I have a moment, I just wanted to offer my opinion on NL.

No lynch at 4 to 2 depends on what we know by then. If the good magician or his assistant know who scum is at that point, then obviously we should lynch, otherwise I would support a NL.

NL today only makes sense because we have the least information about who is scum with the greatest chance of a mislynch, but NL today is essentially a discussion killer, which I think is worse than a mislynch since it gives scum more opportunity to hide. For now, we should plan on lynching, but I don't think we should make any firm statements yet as to whether or not we should NL until we get closer to the deadline. We don't want scum to be able to plan one way or the other.

by **roband** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:36 pm UTC

A deadline should really be given, eh?

96 hours from this post

by **greenlover** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:54 pm UTC

I agree that, ideally, we should lynch today, and then no lynch tomorrow if we don't hit scum. However, I doubt we currently have enough content to have significantly better chances of lynching mafia than if we just randomly lynched someone. Ultimately, I think that if we are going to NL, it would probably a better idea to no-lynch today instead of tomorrow. That way - statistically - our chances of lynching mafia will be higher, and we will also have more discussion and a nightkill to go off of contentwise.

by **Adam H** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:43 pm UTC

Do we even have any input in who gets sent away before the trick begins? I also think there's a good chance that we don't have the option of NL:

roband wrote:Before each trick, one person will be asked to leave the stage and take no further part in the action, and then the magic begins!

Doesn't leave much room for debate...

My guess is that both magicians will make people disappear during the trick, and while the good magician's target will come back (amidst resounding applause) during the next trick, the evil magician's target will be gone permanently.

roband wrote:Prepare to not have a clue what is actually going on!

Mmmk!

by **roband** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:49 pm UTC

To confirm, you are voting to choose the person to leave the stage.

If you decide to allow everyone to stay on the stage, that is your choice.

by **webby** » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:13 pm UTC

greenlover wrote:I agree that, ideally, we should lynch today, and then no lynch tomorrow if we don't hit scum. However, I doubt we currently have enough content to have significantly better chances of lynching mafia than if we just randomly lynched someone. Ultimately, I think that if we are going to NL, it would probably a better idea to no-lynch today instead of tomorrow. That way - statistically - our chances of lynching mafia will be higher, and we will also have more discussion and a nightkill to go off of contentwise.

Comparing the two scenarios, and making the (possibly incorrect) assumption that there's a doctor - because I think Adam H's is the most plausible role for the good magician:
Chances of getting down to 3-2:
If lynching at 6-2 but not 4-2 = 6/8*6/7 + 6/8*1/7*5/7 = 71.9%
If not lynching at 6-2 or 4-2 = 5/7 = 71.4%

So the two methods are pretty much the same if there's a doctor, except that we would get more information in the case that we get two lynches (1/7 chance) and there's a (1/4) chance we get to 6-1 instead of 5-1, with the associated chance of an extra lynch from doctor protects.

Summary - If we knew there was a doctor/roleblocker, we should lynch today, so it depends how much weight you put on whether there's a doctor or a roleblocker as to whether we lynch.

by **Paimon** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:54 am UTC

I still think that you are assuming that player skill is irrelevant. What you are saying is only true if we pick randomly. Which we don't.

by **webby** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:20 am UTC

I think on day 1 we generally don't actually do better than random. :p In fact I think we might even do worse than random, because of the influence scum has.

But really, the numbers are to be used as a guide to strategy rather than the final determinant of what we do. There's obviously an element of luck/randomness, so I think if the numbers were vastly different between the two cases, we'd be wise to follow them.

by **Misnomer** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:30 am UTC

Posting before work, so I'll be quick.

If we get down to MYLO, then yes, we should probably NL. However this shouldn't be a set in stone thing, and we certainly shouldn't speed NL. Without at this stage knowing exactly what powers are in play in this game, information may be revealed tomorrow that makes NL the wrong course of action, or at the very least prompt us to reconsider the prospect of a lynch.

I would be completely opposed to NLing today. D1 lynches, as awkward and clumsy as they are, do tend to give us information - NLing D1 tends to just extend D1 into D2.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:51 am UTC

So 81 hrs til deadline.

Interesting how my NL point has made such discussion happen. People are misinterpreting it though, a NL is an option if we don't have another option, and it could be used either day 1 or 2, assuming a mislynch. And honestly, we do pick randomly. We are not very good at lynching day 1. Which is why a NL day1 could be advantageous. But as a-wan said, it is usually a discussion killer, which is the last thing we want. This being a turbo also affects things.

Adam is a bit suspicious for misinterpreting the opening flavour, but it could be an innocent mistake; it wasn't obvious that the player leaving was because of our votes. I just assumed that.

Paimon seems very against a NL, which is all well and good, but not when it might be advantageous for town.

I disagree with webby's point about back-up roles; It may make a little sense in flavour, but I rather think this setup will be a bit different, with the magicians powers being a bit unusual. We'll probably have a clearer picture after the first trick.

Misnomer I agree that normally D1 NLing is bad, but I have a feeling this game might be a bit different, and waiting for some more info on the night kill might be worth it. Of course, I would only forfeit the kill if I had no suspicion whatsoever on who is scum.

by **Misnomer** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:33 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Misnomer I agree that normally D1 NLing is bad, but I have a feeling this game might be a bit different, and waiting for some more info on the night kill might be worth it. Of course, I would only forfeit the kill if I had no suspicion whatsoever on who is scum.

If we NL today, then while tomorrow's death might tell us more about the setup, it won't give us any scum leads - whereas if we do lynch today, even if we lynch uncertainly, we will have a clear voting record to judge people by, and to determine scumminess from. And scumhunting should be more of a priority to us than setup-revealing.

by **Adam H** » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:04 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Adam is a bit suspicious for misinterpreting the opening flavour, but it could be an innocent mistake; it wasn't obvious that the player leaving was because of our votes. I just assumed that.

Well, this is my first game of mafia on this forum (other than resistance) and there has not been much direction given, so I was not necessarily assuming that this was a typical game of mafia.

And IMO "knowing what is going on" is probably going to be more scummy than misinterpretation, since the scums are likely to have more information than the rest of us.

I will be hesitant to random lynch since 1) we don't know what the deal is, and 2) it probably will not be a productive lynch.

by **cjdrum** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:44 am UTC

I'm here! Got mah role. Reading soon.

by **a-wan** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:52 pm UTC

I think NL is definitely out. I agree with Misnomer that it would just turn D2 into an extension of D1. We've had plenty of discussion on this now.

As for other strategies, I think any claiming strategies are out. I'd rather scum not know what powers the good magician has. Follow the cop is obviously out without a doctor (and completely out if we have no cop, right?). No one wants a random lynch, so let's try not to make it random. I tend to like the idea of voting early and often.

There's not quite enough content yet for a proper analysis, so I'll hold off on that. I agree that "knowing what is going on" is a scum tell, but not a lot of people have been acting like they know what's going on, and I don't expect them to.

Since there's not much to go on yet, I'll go with what I can. I have said that a NL today makes sense only insofar as we are more likely to mislynch today than tomorrow, but since a NL also takes voting pressure off of scum that was never enough to make me support it. Apparently, that was enough for greenlover to express his preference for it, though. I've read over this thread multiple times so far, and that's the only thing that has really stood out at this point. And since I just said we should vote early and often I'll

Vote greenlover

by **Adam H** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:37 pm UTC

a-wan wrote:I think NL is definitely out. I agree with Misnomer that it would just turn D2 into an extension of D1. We've had plenty of discussion on this now.

I would prefer that we agree that deciding to NL is definitely out. The benefit of lynching is creating content, but a refusal to hammer can provide just as much content as a hammer.

by **Paimon** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:44 pm UTC

So we should vote on whether or not to vote? Seems a bit silly.

by **a-wan** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:52 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:I would prefer that we agree that deciding to NL is definitely out. The benefit of lynching is creating content, but a refusal to hammer can provide just as much content as a hammer.

Not sure what the discrepancy is. I wasn't saying that it isn't possible to NL, just that I don't think we should at this point for exactly the reason you state here.

Ninja'd. Paimon, I think he was thinking I was confused about whether or not we actually could vote to NL when I was really saying that I think it would be a bad idea.

by **Adam H** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:57 pm UTC

I might just need some lingo/rule clarification. I've been assuming that if there's not a consensus by the deadline, then no one is lynched and you'd call it a "NL"? If not, then ignore everything I've said...

Adam H wrote:I would prefer that we agree that deciding to NL is definitely out.

Sorry if this wasn't clear. I meant that I'd agree with a-wan if he had said "I think deciding to NL is definitely out" rather than "I think NL is definitely out". I would also agree with this: "I think NL is definitely out, for now".

If/when we mislynch, I don't want any of the voters to say "well, the only reason I voted for dearly-departed was that we had already decided we didn't want to NL and it was getting close to the deadline."

by **webby** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:54 pm UTC

Usually when no majority is reached, the player with the most votes is lynched at deadline. So if the day was to end right now, greenlover would be lynched. You can also explicitly vote for 'No Lynch', which usually works in the same way - if more people are voting for No Lynch than for any specific player, then there is no lynch. Ties are either resolved randomly or with a No Lynch.

I say 'usually', just in case this is different to a normal game, because roband hasn't specified this anywhere.

by **Misnomer** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:54 pm UTC

Hmmm... that's a point, there doesn't seem to be any indication of what happens if the deadline is reached without a majority...

Mod: is there any softlynching in this game? Is a minimum number of votes required, or is it simple plurality lynching? And what happens in the event of a tie?

That's should clear a few things up.

Anyways, seeing as this is a turbo, I'm going to go ahead and throw out a vote.

Vote: GoP

for soft advocacy of no lynching, and justifying it on the grounds that 'this game might be a bit different'.

This is of course a simple hunch vote, and liable to change before deadline.

by **cjdrum** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:13 pm UTC

Paimon: How much experience of Mafia have you had, whether it be online or in... the real world?

I started reading through under the assumption that you had no experience, but you seem to know what you're talking about. So yeah, it'd be good to know how much you know and how you know it

by **Gopher of Pern** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:29 pm UTC

Misnomer: I was simply stating that it might be beneficial, especially if we don't have any good scum tells, to NL in this setup. Pure random odds favour it.

cjdrum and Paimon: You guys really need to post more. cjdrum, all you've done is enquire as to how experienced Paimon is, and Paimon, you've only posted one liners, simply putting down peoples ideas. Come up with something yourself.

Quite frankly, Adam is pinging me the most. They tried to fling back my minor accusation on me, and then threw out the non-sequiter "I don't want to random lynch". Since then, they've still been harping on about the NL.

Vote: Adam H

I will also consider greenlover, but will wait for them to reply to a-wans accusation.

by **Adam H** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:40 am UTC

OK, I was assuming that we needed a majority to lynch or else there would be no lynch, as that's how I normally play mafia. Again, I've not played a game of mafia on this forum before, so it's good to know how you guys do things... That definitely obsoletes my point about the NL. It obsoletes pretty much all of what I've said, actually...

GoP, I can appreciate your gut instinct. Hopefully I've cleared up some of the "I don't want to random lynch" and NL harping. The flinging back your accusations... balderdash, I did no such thing.

You can refer to me as he/him/his. At first I thought you were talking about both me and Paimon by using they.

Vote: No Lynch

Just to harp on it.

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