Death to the Conspiracy! Game over, town wins!

[Elvish Pillager]

The shooting finally subsides, and you look over your handiwork.

The bullet-riddled bodies of more_people, Ibarra, and jayhsu lie motionless on the ground. A short way off, next to John Citizen's remains, there are bits and pieces of Not A Raptor and Dr Ug, who were both blown up in the continued bombardment from the modified battle tank.

Ibarra and jayhsu were nightkilled. Not A Raptor and Dr Ug were modkilled for inactivity (I prodded them overnight).

John Citizen was Vanilla Town.
more_people was a Government Agent (vanilla scum).
Ibarra was a Government Agent.
jayhsu was a Government Agent.
Not A Raptor was the Veteran Vigilante, an unkillable townie.
Dr Ug was a Government Agent.

Hour 2 begins now! The deadline is September 4 at UTC 19:00.

[weiyaoli]

Sigh, 2 town modkills.

Sorry for dropping off the radar towards the end of the day yesterday; I was pretty sure jayhsu was scum, especially with his buddying with more_people and so wanted to lie under the radar for a kill on him in case one of the scum powers was to block a specific person/target.

I'll try to sum up what I feel about everyone soon, especially after last night.

[Sruixan]

Posting from the iPad and will probably have to expand on this tomorrow morning, but I'd just like to check that I'm not the only one seeing something here.

more_people was scum. Who first raised the idea that he might be scum? Me (who knows he is town). Who was pipped to the post with that sentiment in a post made a minute after mine? Misnomer. Who was the first to vote more_people? NaR (confirmed townie). Who raised their suspicions of more_people quite early on and voted for him before it was cool and before we'd set up a selection committee? softchews.

...my only quarrel here is how the hell could that possibly be so easy? Paranoia says I'm missing something here... shall have to mull that over as I drift off tonight.

Alo, if we're going to claim kills, I would be simply ecstatic, mainly because I'd love to see someone try to rationalise my own rationale and flounder hopelessly. I'll withhold for now, just in case someone turns around and says "no wait that's a terrible idea", but I'll be over here writing it up... don't mind me...

[softchews]

We have lost more scum then town, but I don't know how many hours we will survive with a loss that large, even though that loss was down to the Mod tank. Anyway, I shall now be working my way down the wall of text and trying to work out allegiances after last nights discoveries.
one point for now though, did people get played by Dr. Ug's townie acting skills, or were you all scum trying to get us all doomed? You know what, don't answer that cause you will be lying. (paranoid? Who, me? Never!) In any case, I think this shows the weakness of the committee plan very plainly, and as such I do not want to use that method. What if Dr Ug had used it to get a townie on the list? Too easily played by a scum majority.
Ninja'd by Sruixan: on the kill claim, I would be hesitant because we know that multiple people can target one person and that one person only dies once, so scum could try and hide under that and say they targeted the same person to be considered more townie. You can claim if you like, I won't mind hearing your brilliant deductions worthy of Sherlock Holmes, but be careful of people trying to piggy back on it.
Anyway, off to read through the text wall. I got my suspicion finger at the ready!

[Sruixan]

I wasn't exactly channeling Sherlock Holmes at the time, as far as I'm concerned. I only did want I did to try and disprove a completely leftfield hunch I found myself left with after the deadline was extended.

jayhsu: 2 (weiyaoli, Lorenz)
Lorenz: 4 (webby, jayhsu, Ibarra, a-wan)
more_people: 4 (Not A Raptor, Sruixan, softchews, Misnomer)
Sruixan: 1 (more_people)

These were the votals at the moment the deadline was extended. If I could colour code them, I would (far too much effort on the iPad), but here's a compromise, replacing confirmed mafiosos and townies for S and T respectively (you'll have to put up with me calling myself town... sorry if you're not a fan of it but it doesn't change my point):

S: weiyaoli, Lorenz
Lorenz: webby, S, S, a-wan
S: T, T, softchews, Misnomer
T: S

My problem: if the scum were trying to manipulate the potential lynch voting strategy, then would they or would they not have proposed a townie. They would so that they would have someone to lynch, they wouldn't have to spread wine and to try and get us to say "hey, the mafia probably tried to get that person lynched yesterday, so he's probably town I guess".

And the only non-confirmed-scum candidate who really got off the ground was Lorenz. Most people, including myself, wouldn't really call him townie, which would perhaps have made him the ideal candidate for the scheme I outline above. On the other hand (and this is what I'm having trouble with), would the mafia really have proposed no townies for the lynch candidates? Not a single one? I can't tell, and Lorenz being Lorenz really does not make it any easier. Would anyone else like to offer an opinion on this?

[Lorenz]

Well, first of all, good job on not killing any town. I was really worried I would be targeted because people saw me scummy.

anyway, the list.
1. John Citizen
2. NecklaceOfShadow existential_elevator
3. Misnomer
4. webby
5. Chandani Ibarra
6. more_people
7. softchews
8. a-wan
9. weiyaoli
10. Lorenz
11. jayhsu
12. Sruixan
13. Not A Raptor
14. Dr Ug

So 9 players left, 2 town dead.
If all town used their NK and there were no repeats, then that means there are 3 townies left. Scum could kill 1 player each night, and if we kill scum correctly.
6/3->3/2->1/1->? (There have been a few changes to the tie-rules so I'm not sure what would happen with a 1/1 final, but for the sake of this post I'm guessing town wins.)
So, in this case, we have to play perfect now in order to win (Of course, scum could let us lynch another scum but it's quite unlikely now imo).

If someone whit-held their kill of targeted the same person or got stopped (roleblock or doctor), then there's 5/4 scum/town. In this scenario it's much more likely for scum to let us lynch scum, if it will mean us miss-killing in the firefight.

If the first scenarios is the actual scenario then we have to play perfectly, and if it's the second scenario then making a mistake won't be fatal, so we better think we are in the worst possible scenario and play according to that. (It's also what I believe more probable)

So, the point I want to get to is this.
Claiming our kills is a good idea, as it will give much discussion and chances to find scum. It's the biggest piece of information we can have today, and not using it would be silly.

FoS: Softchews for suggesting it may be a bad idea.

I'm ready to claim as soon as others agree it's a good idea. (Hell, maybe I'm completely wrong in my reasoning and softchews does have a point, so I'd rather hear what others think before claiming)

Ninja-d by Sruixan: I need to analyze the post a little more before commenting.

[Lorenz]

Sruixan: I guess my input to your analysis is worthless, as I know I'm a confirmed town, so approving of your logic is the natural thing to do. Also, more-people's vote on you was not a real vote in the sense of scum trying to lynch town, so imo I was indeed the only proposed townie to lynch.

Also:

I only did want I did to try and disprove a completely leftfield hunch I found myself left with after the deadline was extended.

If I'm reading that right (and you are town), both of us targeted the same person, and that means there are 4 townies left (6 total). Really -if I'm reading it right- I bet you see it was an easier decision for me than you, reading back and assuming I'm town. As you seem very townie in your lasts posts so I'm going to let you claim first if you wish, because if I claim first then it may seem as if you're using the same arguments as me, but with less knowledge than me. I'm hoping this post will help reduce the wine after the claims (that I think are inevitable), but of course, what I think is usually wrong.
Looking back at :

if there's a tie, I'll put the question of who to lynch to the scum

then 1-1 would probably result in townie being lynched, making the game over already if there are 3 townies. So, what's left for me to do is ask.

Mod: Would a 1 town 1 scum endgame result in the same rule of scum deciding who to lynch?

[Elvish Pillager]

Yes.

And, since it's a little complicated, I'll go ahead and explain what happens in 1v1 with a vanilla town against a vanilla scum: They vote for each other, which is a tie; Thus, presumably the townie is lynched; at that point, the game ends in a scum win (the townie could kill the scum that night, but it doesn't matter, because all players dying is a scum win).

[weiyaoli]

Well going back to my worst scenario yesterday; with 10s/5t (although there are only 14 names in the player list now?):

With 4s/2t dead:

Worst case we are facing 6s/3t. 6/2 -> 3/2 -> 3/1 -> 1/1 -> 1/0 (scum win). If this is the case, scum has already won, barring any double kill or such powers on town. I wouldn't expect quick lynches though since I would assume scum would be cautious if this was currently the case in case of any kill powers that can kill two or something as they pretty much have the game in the bag in this scenario.

Of course, they wouldn't quicklynch either if it is 5s/4t right now so I don't think there is a way to get how many scum and town are left.

So 9 players left, 2 town dead.
If all town used their NK and there were no repeats, then that means there are 3 townies left.

Uh, no it doesn't since there were only 2 kills last night, on jayhsu and Ibarra.

[softchews]

Lorenz: I was not saying that calling who we kill was bad, simply that it would be easily piggybacked by Scum wanting to appear Town. talking about who we killed or tried to kill could be very useful, but misinformation could be rife from our Scum counterparts in the crowd, skewing future ideas, stratagems and NK/lynches. I will not turn about and say not to talk (learnt my lesson on that) but ignoring the scum majority in this game would be a folly. It was a warning of trusting everything said as verbatim. Also, please note the last person to tell me off for something similar was revealed to be scum. And they focused on the wrong part as well, looking back.
My actual full analysis will be turning up soon, just felt I had to say that bit.

[Sruixan]

@Lorenz: I'm afraid to say that I didn't quite express that bit about my hunch properly in my late-night state of mind. The hunch I wanted to (and failed) to disprove was that you were town (it made logistical sense, see, but went against my gut feeling on you that I had previously expressed), but I discovered the grounds on which I chose my target last night whilst attempting to ascertain your alignment. Their flip as scum, combined with the night's other flip, makes me want to think that you are just ridiculously misrepresented town, but I still have reservations about that, as I said in my last post. I don't think both of us targetted the same person, because I think your proposed kill really was very easy for you, whereas I was trying to avoid the obvious in case of manevolent interference and thus went for the next step up. Heck, that's far too cryptic, isn't it? I should probably just explain myself clearly, but I shall have to do that later today...

Also people, can I just point something else out? There are 8 players alive right now, not 9. There were 15 players, then Hausdog/cellery was wiped from the list upon their lamentably early modkill, never to be spoken of again, then there was then a lynch, a modkill, two NKs and another two modkills, leaving 8 players. That means it's either 6/2 (please no), 5/3 (possible), or 4/4 (arguably more probable as I found the 9/6 inital setup to be the best balanced). If it is 4/4, mind, then I too would bloomin' well love to know where all the kills went last night...

[Lorenz]

Right. I missed crossing out Jayshu on my last post. It is indeed 8 players left, and two vig. NKs. Sorry, I blame the night as well. I'll have to retry on that.

[Lorenz]

And Sruixan: It's not far too cryptic, as it's the exact same thing I thought. I am 100% sure now that our claim will be the same.

[a-wan]

I think we got quite a bit of information out of that gunfight--good and bad.

First, let me say that that didn't turn out as bad as I feared it might, but two town modkills is bad enough. I think the best we can hope for now is 4 town, though, I might add, that's better odds than we started with. I don't think we're as low as 2 town, because scum would be speed lynching right now, so either Hausdog was scum, we started off with more than 5 town, or both. If we're down to 3 town, then we have to be careful, especially since we lost a town power (unkillable town) but none of the scum reveals appeared to have a power, though I'm a little confused by the mod's post, since only one of them is labeled as vanilla scum.

Mod: Do scum power roles get revealed when they die?

For now, we should assume that none of the scum were power roles, which means that even if we're at 4- 4 we might face an uphill battle.

As for revealing who we targeted, I think we should, and I'm not sure if we need consensus to do so, since there's still a good chance that more than half the people alive at this point are scum. I'm only hesitant right now because of how Dr. Ug flipped. I'm sorry to say, I didn't just have him as towny, he was one of my top two most likely to be townie--even ahead of NaR--which means A) I can't trust my reads as much as I thought and B) I can't put as much trust in plans proposed Dr. Ug, and revealing our NKs was his idea.

While I expect that Dr. Ug had some trap in mind related to revealing NKs, I still think we can use it to our advantage. Be that as it may, I'm not ready just yet to reveal who my NK, but I will say this. I don't think scum's power is a redirect power because the only town kills were by the mod. If one of their powers is a double vote, then any potential double voter was not voting for Lorenz and more_people, but I think they don't have a double vote. I believe they have a doctor or a roleblock or some other way to prevent an NK. Unkillable scum seems like it would be a game-breaker, but maybe we started with enough town that the way we're supposed to win is for town to get a majority so that we can lynch an unkillable scum.

Dr. Ug flipping scum makes me not trust anyone anymore. So, here's my notice to everyone that was on the townier end of my list:

webby: even though you did that analysis post that I thought made you seem more townie, that's not enough anymore.
Sruixan: I've trusted you because you seem to just spew out your thoughts and it seems like scum wouldn't be able to do that without dropping scum tells, but I'm more suspicious now that you don't really say much.
weiyaoli: I've questioned why people had you on the scummier end of their lists, but I'm now going back to double check their reasoning.

Everyone else, you were already on the neutral/leaning scummy end of my list, but just so you don't feel left out:

Lorenz: you still have a lot of wine around you, so even though you claim that you've been confirmed town, I still have reservations. I still think there's a chance that scum were so afraid of looking scummy that they would vote scum.
Misnomer: I find it suspicious that you have posted so infrequently. Just because you voted for more_people doesn't let you off the hook.
softchews: I think you've been acting scummy all game, and nothing that has happened recently has changed my mind on that.
existential _elevator: Very little content still means scummy to me. I saw elsewhere that you'll only have few days where you can post, so you better make those posts count.

I do realize that some of you have to be town, but right now I don't have a townie side of my list. Almost all of you were not as towny as Dr. Ug, who turns out to be scum, so, as far as I'm concerned, you all lean scummy until you can do more to prove that you're townie.

And even though you don't know it, one of you in particular is confirmed scum, by the way. I'll be watching you to see how many of your teammates you drag down with you. Just to be clear, I'm not claiming a power role, but I'm pretty certain of my logic.

[Elvish Pillager]

...I'm a little confused by the mod's post, since only one of them is labeled as vanilla scum.

Mod: Do scum power roles get revealed when they die?

Yes. The "(vanilla scum)" was to indicate that wherever the rolename "Government Agent" appears, it denotes vanilla scum. If a scum power role dies, a different rolename (as well as a description of powers) will be given.

[Lorenz]

@Softchews: Ok, you weren't claiming it was a bad idea, but were still saying we should be cautious about it. I don't see why any town would really want to be cautious about it, as good logic is what we have to go with. Maybe my FoS was too much, and further day1 analysis later on will be of much help.

@a-wan: I agree that a way to stop kills is the most reasonable for scum, and I think it's a doc rather than a roleblock, which is why we were warned not to discuss who is killing who beforehand.

@Sruixan: 4/4 means we lost 2 kills, one could have easily been blocked (if there is such a power), another town could have withheld their kill, or there could have been multiple targets.

I say it's time we start claiming, and we may be able to figure out what actually happened to the kills, and so, how many townies we have left. Will you do the honors Sruixan, or shall I?

@a-wan: I have not claimed I am confirmed town a single time. I do think I look much better right now, but not once have I acted as if I was confirmed, because I know people were very suspicious of me (for not being able to post much the first days, and for not liking a plan that now looks like was highly liked by scum). The only problem with me is that more_people tried to bring me down with him. I've seen town lose many times for focusing too much on who posts more and their logic/content rather than by their actions.

Anyway, everyone who voted for more_people is on the better side of my list right now, and everyone who voted me is on the worst side of my list. I would recommend Sruixan/Softchews/Misnomer keep their vote together, barring any obvious scumtell.

[a-wan]

@a-wan: I have not claimed I am confirmed town a single time.

I guess I was just misinterpreting this:

Sruixan: I guess my input to your analysis is worthless, as I know I'm a confirmed town, so approving of your logic is the natural thing to do.

I thought you were claiming confirmed town status, not the usual claim that everyone makes that they know they're town. I can see now that you might not have actually been claiming that everyone should believe you're confirmed town.

I'm still in favor of people revealing they're NKs, but if anyone's uncomfortable doing so, by all means, please refrain.

[webby]

So it looks like everyone is in favour of claiming, but nobody wants to be the first to claim.

I killed jayhsu. This was because we were told not to reveal our nightkill target, and I thought Lorenz would be too obvious a choice (ie he might have been doctored or similar). jayhsu was one of my other three most scummy, so I killed him.

[Misnomer]

I killed jayhsu. This was because we were told not to reveal our nightkill target, and I thought Lorenz would be too obvious a choice (ie he might have been doctored or similar). jayhsu was one of my other three most scummy, so I killed him.

Snap.


Well, not entirely. I targeted jayhsu last night, only to be informed that my kill attempt was unsuccessful. Having thought about it overnight (didn't want to post last night as I was mildly under the influence and I've been struggling to deal with this setup even whilst sober), I think I've narrowed it down to four possibilities:
1) My kill was unsuccessful because 'webby's'* kill action was processed first. I reckon this is highly unlikely, as I've never seen a game where such a situation would cause the second killer to be notified.
2) My kill was unsuccessful because jayhsu was doctored. I think this is slightly likelier than the first option, but I still find it strange that I would be notified.
3) My kill was unsuccessful because I was roleblocked. I think this is a real possibility - although exactly why the roleblocker would pick on me I don't know. I need to read back through some of EP's past games to find out whether or not ze notified roleblocker targets. If it is this option, then of course there's the distinct sub possibility that it was actually a town roleblocker that hit me... in which case, stop it.
4) My kill was unsuccessful because I am naive, and I'll get hit with exactly the same message tonight. I wouldn't put this role past EP, although if this is the case I would hope that it would mean we have quite a few townies remaining, as I would be apparently useless >_<.

So yeah, I think it's one of three or four. I await the remaining claims with great interest.

* I've put webby's name in inverted commas as it's by no means clear that he did carry out the kill - I'm just using his name as a placeholder to demonstrate my theory.

[a-wan]

So, basically everyone's going to claim they killed jayhsu or Ibarra. I get it. I think that Sruixan looks like he's preparing to claim that he killed Ibarra and Lorenz is waiting for Sruixan to claim so that he can claim the same kill, though I believe it makes more sense for Lorenz to claim Jayhsu.

Anyways, excuse me for ignoring your claims, webby and Misnomer, but I'm still waiting until at least one more person claims because I'm interested to see what they're going to say.

[weiyaoli]

I claimed already in my very first post today.

[Sruixan]

So, let's make this nice and clear, shall we?

weiyaoli: jayhsu
webby: jayhsu
Misnomer: jayhsu, kill "unsuccessful"
Sruixan: Ibarra

Lorenz: implies Ibarra
a-wan: prepared to claim now there are four claims out there
softchews: wary of kill claiming, but doesn't mind it
e_e: non-existant

@a-wan, I would have also thought that Lorenz choosing to kill jayhsu would have been the more logical decision, but he's also implied that he didn't want to be too obvious with his kill to counter scum doctoring. I don't think either claim would make more "sense" - jayhsu would have been obvious, so Ibarra would have been less likely to be interferred with, but then that's what a scum doctor might have thought, were they to have decided to protect someone on the Lorenz vote, and down that road lies a game of second-guessing that as far as I'm concerned makes them both quite logical.

For the record, my reasons for picking Ibarra were fourfold; first, the leftfield nature of the target. Ibarra hadn't really done anything to stand out, unlike say jayhsu and weiyaoli's arguing or a-wan, NaR, Dr Ug and myself getting picked for the committee. I'd like to think (and still would) that a townie should be trying to do as much as they can to help, but Ibarra wasn't particularly radical when he replaced in, By lying low and trying not to attract attention, he probably wasn't going to get killed during the night and thus there probably wasn't going to be any protection there. Secondly, try reading this post with the idea in your mind that its author is town:

I see merit in the case against more_people, but I think that Lorenz is the scummiest among the bunch.
As such I'm afraid that voting for Lorenz could make more_people shift his vote to make a tie.

On the other hand, If it is a tie and one of the two are lynched, chances are the one who wasn't lynched is scum.
Deadline is around 9 hours 30 minutes time, so there should be some activity before the deadline - I hope.

Vote: Lorenz

Doesn't quite work, methinks. Thirdly, he didn't vote me onto the selection committee. Ok so that one is a bit silly but I remember pointing it out at the time and it was my remembering of that event that got me looking in his direction when his name dropped onto my list of people who hadn't really stuck their toes out.

Finally, since he seemed so desperate to try and get Lorenz up to at least a tied vote, I couldn't help but wonder whether or not I was actually looking at scum voting town, not just scum bussing scum as I had been viewing most votes. Knowing now that two people in the middle of the Lorenz wagon were scum has stopped me from going at his throat with a hatchet today, although obviously it can't prove him town. I just thought that having that confirmation available for everyone, Lorenz especially, would be rather useful. Also apologies if this is a bit skittery (is it me or do I apologise for something in every single one of my posts?) but I'm out all day tomorrow and wanted to get this out in the time I had this evening so I've rushed it (again).

[a-wan]

Actually, I wasn't waiting for four people to claim. The one person I've been waiting for is softchews because I wanted to see what he would claim, but it looks like he's going to hide behind uneasiness at making kill claims, which makes sense, and I'll explain why.

I targeted softchews last night. My reasons for targeting him are:

1. I've believed that he was trying to keep discussion to a minimum (which he has continued to do today). He claimed that his reason for this was that he was new and he didn't realize that discouraging discussion was bad.
2. I've tried to raise suspicion on him multiple times, but no one seemed to be buying in, which was a red flag to me because if he were town I would have thought scum would have been ready to pounce, but they didn't.
3. He was the third vote for more_people. At that point more_people was the only one with two votes and I had said that I thought more_people was the scummiest, so he was obviously gaining momentum. This vote seemed like a vote to gain towny cred.
4. Since no one else seemed to have him on their suspicion list, I felt like he would be someone I could target with low risk of someone else targeting him and wasting a kill.

As far as I can tell, the three reasons softchews may have survived are:

1. softchews is another veteran vigilante.
2. I was roleblocked.
3. softchews was doctored.

Obviously, the first two options are possibilities and could mean that softchews is town. I'm not sure how many veteran vigilantes there would be, but it seems unlikely that there would be more than one.

I can see roleblocking as a possibility, except that it seems like it would be too strong of a power for scum to have--it basically guarantees that we lose a kill every night. Of course, maybe the mod saw this as balanced because it could prevent a town on town kill as well, so maybe it's not too strong. I think if scum was paying though, they would have known that I was likely to target softchews and that I was the only one that would. This means that if softchews was town, scum had no reason to roleblock me, since I would be doing their job for them. So if I was roleblocked, that puts softchews firmly in the scum camp for me.

If softchews was doctored, then he is obviously scum. Scum wouldn't doctor town, right? NK on town is worth more than getting town lynched. softchews was a good target for a doctor, too, because as I've implied earlier I was basically telegraphing my kill and scum would have seen that I was the only one targeting softchews.

So basically, unless softchews claims veteran vigilante, then as far as I'm concerned, he's scum.

As I've gone back over the thread, I'm even more convinced. Besides everything else that I've already said, look who got him off when he tried to shut down discussion. It was Dr. Ug. At first, Dr. Ug came on strong against softchews for proposing an obviously scummy strategy and even voted for him (though he was the only one), then his very next post Dr. Ug unvotes and says that softchews was obviously just a newb and therefore not scummy.

Anyways, the way forward is clear as far as I'm concerned. Right now we're either at 4-4 or 5-3. I think we have scum on their heels. I don't think they can truly counter my claims without looking scummy, which is fine by me, since that makes NK decisions easier for me (and I won't be telegraphing tonight). We can either take the majority right now or make it a lot harder on them by killing softchews.

If you don't believe me, fine. You think softchews is town? Then I guess if he's town then he'll kill me tonight, won't he? If he's town and we lynch him and he doesn't kill me tonight, for whatever reason, then tomorrow he'll flip town and I'll get lynched. Pretty straight forward.

Vote softchews

Of course, if he claims veteran vigilante then I'm not sure what to do, but I'll still think he looks scummy.

[Lorenz]

NOOOOOO. I just lost a large post because I got logged out. (This happens way too often to me, I should learn)

In summary:
Yes, I claim Ibarra. His vote switching was extremely suspicious once I assumed more_people scum, which seemed very right with the way he tried to make connections with me, after people mentioned I looked scummy. Jayshu seemed like a good choice but I guessed others would target him, or me. If it was me, I'd flip town and jayshu would be in trouble anyway.

@a-wan: Why would you not follow your plan of waiting to see how many teammates softchews brought down with them? You did not explain why it makes sense that he would not want to claim, you only explained why you know they're scum and let them know that. Did you get notified as misnomer that your kill was unsuccessful?
Vote: a-wan

as you said earlier, no reason to have an un-countered vote.

[a-wan]

I gave up on waiting for softchews to claim because he said he didn't want to and he appeared to be following through on that even after most other people started claiming. Besides, it's obvious that if he did claim he was just going to say he targeted jayhsu or Ibarra.

I think I almost expect to be lynched today, but that's okay. I think I can get off a clean kill tonight now that I have three people that I'm pretty confident are scum. I gave up too much information yesterday, but I'm not going to make that mistake again. If town just thinks clearly, I think there's already enough information to make enough right decisions tonight to give us a majority tomorrow.

[Lorenz]

You avoided my last question...

[a-wan]

Not everyone has claimed yet. If anyone else claims their kill was unsuccessful, I want them to have to guess whether or not to say they received a notice from the mod. We have time. As soon as everyone has claimed or has definitively stated they are not going to claim, I'm going to keep this information to myself. Like I said, I gave away too much last time. I'm not going to make the same mistake this time.

[Lorenz]

Well, I was posting in the discussion thread and it brought me to a point that I decided to post here instead.

A strong stench of scum is reaching me. Why was a-wan so happy to go and claim the he know softchews is scum, but didn't say anything about misnomer? Why was he impatient to wait and see if softchews brought other down with zim, but has patience to wait and see if others claim?

I mean, if a-wan's scum and misnomer is town, a-wan would have just claimed as well that he got notified (as he'd know that misnomer is town, so would claim the towny claim).
If he's town then he must have been notified as well, or he would be claiming misnomer scum (Unless for some other reason, he thought it was ok to attack softchews but not misnomer). So imo, they (a-wan and misnomer) are either both town or both scum.

If I accept Sruixan as town (which seems right (He provided a reason for why it's likely I'm town, has given analysis that I can't find anything wrong with, claimed the tougher claim (Ibarra rather than Jayshu (Stupid Nested Parenthesis)), voted more_people early on), and Misnomer/a-wan pair as town, then nobody successfully killed jayshu (assuming a maximum of 4 town left)... Then they (a-wan and misnomer) must both be scum.

Ka-ching?

Even if my logic is flawed, by accepting Sruixan as town then at least one of misnomer/a-wan must be scum. Since misnomer voted more_people, and a-wan voted me, I'm happy to leave my vote were it is.

Of course, this all goes in flames if Sruixan is scum, so I'm going to go over Sruixan's posts to see if there's anything scummy that will bring my logic down.

[Lorenz]

And before people start getting mad and spraying wine, that is not the post I was posting in the discussion thread. I just got that Idea from a different subject I was going to address. The previous post was completely new.
\end discalimer

[a-wan]

I'm not surprised you'd keep your vote where it is, and I'm not surprised you're trying to get me to confirm or deny what Misnomer said.

The fact is, at this point, the best scum hunting tool I have is the fact that I know for sure what happens when a kill doesn't go through. If I came out and said either, "Yes, Misnomer is right, and therefore I think he is town" or "No, Misnomer is wrong and therefore I think he is scum", then I've told any scum that haven't claimed their kill what they should claim if they want to say they were blocked, and right now it seems very much like that is exactly what you want.

I'd like to withhold that information and see if anyone else claims an unsuccessful kill. If they do, then the details will help me to know who's scum and who isn't. At this point, as I said, I expect the scum votes to start piling up on me. I guess if you paint me as scummy enough you can help get me speed lynched. If you're lucky, you might even get me lynched before softchews and e_e claim.

[a-wan]

It has become clear to me that refusing to claim your kill only helps scum. softchews, you can do whatever you want. I don't care, but e_e, if you're going to still play, then what you claim helps everyone to figure out who scum is, so if you don't claim your kill, then I'll just assume your scum.

So far, assuming those who haven't claimed are scum, what we have is:

Ibarra - supposedly killed by Sruixan and Lorenz
jayhsu - supposedly killed by weiyaoli, webby, and Misnomer

So there's 5 people who have claimed kills, but only 2 or 3 town slots remaining. We know that at least one from each of the above groups is town.

I'm giving e_e one more day to claim or at least explain why she is not claiming. If she does neither, then I'll move forward under the assumption that she's scum and give what information I have. Seems likely she'll be killed by the mod tank anyway.

If you decide to lynch me after that, that's fine. I'll have one more kill to give tonight, and when I flip town tomorrow, the rest of town will have just about all the information they need to win the game.

Obviously, the best action is to lynch scum today, and I'm going to keep pushing for a lynch on softchews in case scum's power is that softchews can't be killed at night (seems unlikely, but the point may have been that town has to gain a majority before it can win), but if I need to be lynched in order for my information to have the highest impact, I think that gives town enough of an advantage that I'm okay with it.

[Lorenz]

The fact is, at this point, the best scum hunting tool I have is the fact that I know for sure what happens when a kill doesn't go through.

The problem with that logic is that scum, not knowing what happens with an unsuccessful kill would say the same thing. If town, you have the chance to expose scum, and be "confirmed" town if you didn't get notified. If you did get notified, you have the chance to "confirm" another town.
When I say "confirm" i mean confirm to a better extent.

Secondly, anyone who does claim an unsuccessful kill will probably not want to claim now, because they consider themselves town and will want to expose you (or others).

This whole things looks to me more like scum wanting to know what they want to claim beforehand, than wanting to expose scum.

But... enough about us. What do others think?

[Elvish Pillager]

You hear the mod-tank trundling towards your position again. It's dark and foggy here, so you can't tell exactly where it is, but its sound does more than enough to give it away. You all pick up your things and start moving in the opposite direction.

Except existential_elevator. She's sitting peacefully in a nice little circle of stones and camping equipment.

"Hey, you coming?" says one of you. But she doesn't respond. The mod-tank starts gearing up for another barrage...

existential_elevator has been modprodded and will die 72 hours from now if she has not posted by then.

[existential_elevator]

Something about claiming? Didn't I already claim vig? Confused.

[weiyaoli]

Something about claiming? Didn't I already claim vig? Confused.

Who did you vig last night?

[existential_elevator]

I said at the time I'd withhold my vig kill because I simply haven't had time to get a gut feeling about who is scum yet. Happy to vig kill tonight on a suggestion, but who exactly do I know I can trust? I don't really want to shoot haphazardly.

[a-wan]

Everyone's claimed that I need to claim now. Here's my list from scummiest to towniest.

Scum
-----------------------
Misnomer
softchews
Lorenz
e_e
webby and weiyaoli
Sruixan
-----------------------
Town

Misnomer made a mistake by trying to claim that he was told his kill was unsuccessful. I was not told anything. I only found out softchews was not dead after the gunfight.

I've already made my case for softchews, so I'm not going to harp on this, but feel free to read back through my previous posts.

Sruixan and Lorenz both claimed Ibarra, though Ibarra was less obviously scum than other people. I only think one of them actually targeted Ibarra, so I think it was Sruixan because he claimed first and Lorenz was obviously waiting for Sruixan to claim before he did. Not to mention the fact that he was trying to force me to reveal information that would benefit scum.

e_e's claim of withholding her kill seems a little too convenient to me. The only thing she has going for her is that she came in the game late and I know that she's been away for a while, but I still find her claim suspicious.

webby and weiyaoli are equal to me. I know Misnomer didn't kill jayhsu, so one of them had to, and it's more probable that jayhsu had two kills on him than that Ibarra did, so it's possible they're both telling the truth.

Since I think Lorenz is leaning scum, then that means Sruixan is almost definitely town.

If I had to guess remaining town and scum, I would pick top half vs. lower half with Misnomer, softchews, Lorenz, and e_e being scum vs. webby, weiyaoli, and Sruixan being town. If there are only three town left, then I guess I would have to choose between webby and weiyaoli, which I'm not prepared to do right now.

If I'm right, then this whole thing can be over or all but over tonight. We just have to choose our kills wisely. Only one person was protected last night, so I don't expect more than that tonight.

[weiyaoli]

Well, in that case, one of a-wan and Misnomer is scum for sure, unless protection was given in different ways (but the inconsistency of one being notified and one not in that case makes it seem pretty unlikely to me).

I think at this point, I find Misnomer more suspicious than a-wan, so:

Vote: Misnomer

[Lorenz]

Sruixan and Lorenz both claimed Ibarra, though Ibarra was less obviously scum than other people. I only think one of them actually targeted Ibarra, so I think it was Sruixan because he claimed first and Lorenz was obviously waiting for Sruixan to claim before he did. Not to mention the fact that he was trying to force me to reveal information that would benefit scum.

I did breadcrumb my claim in case that was a problem. Every first letter after commas/periods when I first started talking about thinking we were claiming the same person.

If I'm reading that right (and you are town), both of us targeted the same person, and that means there are 4 townies left (6 total). Really -if I'm reading it right- I bet you see it was an easier decision for me than you, reading back and assuming I'm town. As you seem very townie in your lasts posts so I'm going to let you claim first if you wish, because if I claim first then it may seem as if you're using the same arguments as me, but with less knowledge than me. I'm hoping this post will help reduce the wine after the claims (that I think are inevitable), but of course, what I think is usually wrong.

Also, I was trying to reveal info that would benefit scum? I guess that argument would make sense if you had claimed you got notified. Right now you exposed another 100% scum from your PoV. I still don't understand why you decided to tell us softchews was scum, and not misnomer. Your argument is that you gave up on softchews because you thought he wasn't going to claim, when he hasn't made a post since we started mass claiming. They had suggested we should be wary/shouldn't claim, but never said they wouldn't.

Anyway, my argument of a-wan/misnomer pair being both town or scum (which lead to both being scum) is not so valid anymore. I'm good with a lynch on either of them. Since I think getting notified is pretty far-fetched, I'm going to switch my vote.

Unvote
Vote: Misnomer

I think we're in a good place right now.

[a-wan]

He said he didn't want to claim and he hasn't been back since. Maybe I should have waited, but really, what was he going to claim other than either jayhsu or Ibarra? It would be pretty risky for scum to claim anything else.

As far as I'm concerned, both Misnomer and softchews are confirmed scum at this points, so lynching one is as good as the other, so

Unvote
Vote: Misnomer

By the way, that breadcrumb is not as convincing as you think it might be, Lorenz, since you made it after you knew the only choices were jayhsu and Ibarra. Now we just have to decide if you really did target Ibarra, or if it just means that you had correctly guessed at that point that Sruixan was going to claim Ibarra (as I had--and I'm sure I'm not the only one).

I guess just for clarity's sake regarding Misnomer's claim: Sruixan and Lorenz both claimed to have targeted Ibarra. Did either of you receive notification that your kill was not successful? weiyaoli and webby both claimed to have killed jayhsu. Did either of you receive notification that your kill was not successful?