[T] Magicians! A Mysterious Ending

[Gopher of Pern]

Apologies on the 'they'. I tend to use it in preference to he or she, even when I know the gender.

It's still not really clear. Are you saying you would prefer to No Lynch today? Even if there was someone you thought was scummy?

Flinging back was probably over the top, but you did try to insinuate that knowing more about the setup might make me scum. Sutble, but it does try to mark me as scum.

I keep on forgetting you haven't played mafia on here before; You were quite vocal in The Resistance, but thats not quite the same!

[cjdrum]

cjdrum, all you've done is enquire as to how experienced Paimon is

True, but that's only because I've come in late and I'm just trying to work out how to read Paimon's posts to get a read on the situation.

I think No Lynching will be pretty much useless D1. roband wouldn't put up a completely broken setup (i.e. lynch scum OR DIE), which would be the only reason we would want to NL.

[greenlover]

I will also consider greenlover, but will wait for them to reply to a-wans accusation.

What is there to respond to? I provided an idea based on statistics. Webby then showed me (and I agree) that that idea was flawed, because the most likely role for the good magician is a doctor/roleblocker role. Then A-wan came along and decided that my providing an idea that turned out to be flawed was justification enough to vote for me. Honestly, I don't know if that could be considered an "accusation" so much as a "gut feeling".

Anyway, no one has really pinged me at all so far. I'll re-read this thread when I have the time (something I currently have little of), and will hopefully find someone to suspect.

[Gopher of Pern]

Well, if you haven't posted, how are we to know if you've changed your mind? You also haven't provided any other content as yet. This is a turbo remember, so we need as much content as possible.

cjdrum, you seem to have it wrong. It is Mislynch and Die when we want to No Lynch. If it's Lynch Scum or Die, then NL will make us die.

[Paimon]

Paimon: How much experience of Mafia have you had, whether it be online or in... the real world?


I started reading through under the assumption that you had no experience, but you seem to know what you're talking about. So yeah, it'd be good to know how much you know and how you know it

I've had quite a bit of experience mostly online here and there, but also a bit IRL.

As for my posting, being day one, I am a bit cranky because there are no clear clues yet, so it's harder to get any real feel for anyone. That being said, Adam H has been pinging me. Also voting for no-lynch day one just seems like a terrible idea. I get that some people were just thinking about statistics, but I'd sooner see discussion about theories as to the function of the magicians.

Anyway, until someone seems worse than Adam H

Vote: Adam H

Also, female here.

[webby]

I think doctor (making them reappear) is the most likely role based on the flavour, otherwise I would be in favour of No Lynching - in a completely vanilla game where you can't no lynch, town is actually less likely to win than if they start from 5-2. I think that people have been missing each others' points on this - the question is whether 5-2 is a better position to start the game in for town than 6-2 is.

I'm going to do my usual 'what has everyone done so far?' thing - it sometimes draws out lurkers:

cjdrum - not much content yet, started a readthrough this morning, thinks no lynching day 1 being the best thing to do would imply a broken setup (I don't get this?) Overall - lurkerish.

a-wan - offers reasonably priced chicken, thinks that no lynch is a discussion killer and would result in day 2 effectively being day 1 (I agree, the question here is whether 5-2 is actually a better position to start the game in than 6-2). Votes greenlover for supporting a no lynch, which amuses me because those two were arguing at the end of last turbo - it seems to be continuing. I think the vote is premature, and that supporting a No Lynch can be a mistake as well as a scumtell. Will see whether the vote stays on if somebody else does something scummy. Overall - neutral/very slightly scummy

greenlover - suggests no lynching because we're more likely to hit scum at 5-2 than 6-2. Response to a-wan's vote was measured and reasonable. Not much content yet. Overall neutral, but slightly lurkerish.

Misnomer - confirms in an epic way. Doesn't think No Lynch is a good idea day 1. Votes for GoP 'on a hunch' and for soft-suggesting No Lynch. Same comment as for a-wan's vote. Overall - neutral/very slightly scummy

Gopher of Pern - decent speculation on the set-up and whether to lynch. Explains why we might not lynch to Paimon. Thinks the magicians might have unusual roles. Thinks that Adam H could be suspicious for misinterpreting the opening flavour (I don't think he is, and the cautious phrasing from GoP pings me slightly - sort of like trying to start a bandwagon without taking responsibility for the consequences). Responds decently to Misnomer's vote. Accuses Adam H of 'flinging my minor accusation back onto me', which I don't see? :S Stands by the accusation - personally I think it was quite clearly Adam H saying that he shouldn't be considered suspicious for not knowing what was going on, rather than intended as an attack on GoP. Keeps asking for content from people. Overall - this is an interesting one because there's lots of positive content, but also a few suspicious things. Neutral.

Paimon - No real content until last post, has just been enquiring/disagreeing with ideas put forward. Votes for Adam H based on the fact that he voted for No Lynch and nobody seems worse than him so far. Overall - new, hard to get a read.

Adam H - New player, a few questions etc. that imply he doesn't know what's going on. Says it would seem more suspicious if he did know what was going on (at least that's how I interpret it). An odd post where he votes for No Lynch, after previously saying he would agree with a-wan if he said we shouldn't decide to No Lynch? Overall - some weird stuff, no real good content yet. Slightly Scummy.

And wow, I went into that trying very hard not to do my usual thing of finding everyone townie, and I came out with everyone being scummy instead. Calibration error. Well here's my (very early) order from town to scum:

1. Gopher of Pern
2. a-wan
3. Misnomer
4. Adam H

I don't have enough content to judge Paimon or cjdrum yet.

To be honest, I don't think anyone's been particularly townie yet this game. GoP has perhaps been the most townie, but there have been a couple of slightly suspicious things that hold me back.

[Paimon]

When one person seems especially townie, especially on day one, I tend to get suspicious. Not that I am yet...

[roband]

Mod: is there any softlynching in this game? Is a minimum number of votes required, or is it simple plurality lynching? And what happens in the event of a tie?

Whoever gets the majority of votes will be asked to leave the stage. Ties will result in a coinflip (or other random decider if more than 2 people are tied).

[Misnomer]

Unvote
Vote: Adam H

Vote: No Lynch

Explain this. Now.


And on a slightly related note I guess, I understand if people think I'm being a bit quick to vote - but this is a turbo after all. If you don't vote quickly, you are unlikely to get a decent lynch.

Mod, can we get some votals/deadline info?

[Gopher of Pern]

Thats very understandable. By my reckoning, we got 1 day and 6 hours to go til deadline. Adam is now at L-2.

Greenlover, cjdrum and Paimon need to post more. Paimon, if you want some discussion on the magicians, bring it up yourself. Both myself and Webby have put forth a couple of theories on what they do. Feel free to discuss! Also, is there any reason for voting Adam aside from him 'pinging' you? Also, why, if someone seems especially townie, do you get suspicious? Isn't the whole point of them seeming townie them not being suspicious?

cjdrum, starting late is no excuse. This is a turbo. You have yet to post anything of significance.

Webby: as verbose as ever. One of these days you'll be picked for scum (aside from resistance) and we'll see if you play any different! I actually agree with you for the most part: most everyone is acting slightly scummy, most of which is probably connected to my first post, and the subsequent discussion on NL.

[Adam H]

Unvote
Vote: Adam H

Vote: No Lynch

Explain this. Now.

Sigh... this is what I've been concerned about since you DECIDED there shall be no NL (in a big booming God voice), when really we should have decided that there will be no deciding. I thought webby showed that it's basically a wash whether we should lynch or not. The main reason not to NL is that it would kill discussion. Well, my NL vote is getting the discussion going! So I'm not sure what the scumminess is in that...

But really my main reason was just to throw a finger up at GoP. I was expecting to be back on in 12 hours so I figured I could just unvote... Of course, waffling like this is certainly not making me look any less scummy, but eh. I don't want everyone to have to make a decision between NL or lynch Adam.

Unvote
Vote: Paimon

Because I don't like any of his posts.

[Adam H]

Ugh... I'm so ingrained in how I've always played mafia. There will obviously not be a decision between NL and lynch Adam.

And I just saw this:

Adam H - New player, a few questions etc. that imply he doesn't know what's going on. Says it would seem more suspicious if he did know what was going on (at least that's how I interpret it). An odd post where he votes for No Lynch, after previously saying he would agree with a-wan if he said we shouldn't decide to No Lynch? Overall - some weird stuff, no real good content yet. Slightly Scummy.

some weird stuff?!?! no real good content!?!??

[Misnomer]

...yeah, that really hasn't increased my confidence in you at all. 'I was acting scummy to provoke discussion' is never a valid defence. Nor for that matter was it ever a question of NL or a lynch on yourself - at the time you made your vote, both greenlover and GoP had votes on them.

Ninja'd: how you've always played mafia? Care to explain?

[a-wan]

I've gone through the posts since my last post and written down anything that makes me suspicious in the hope that it will help me think through this:

cjdrum - Seems to be actively avoiding posting content. Besides just asking questions, as others have pointed out, he also has promised a couple of times to post more later.

paimon - Seemed legitimately new at first, but then seemed experienced. At first I thought that a possible explanation might be that she is new and just had extra "inside information", but her later posts make it clear that she has played a few mafia games. I'd like to see more from her, either on why people are or are not towny or scummy or some role spec.

Adam H - Barely any justification was given for the No Lynch vote after saying that he agreed that we should decide to No Lynch. This almost seems too blatant to be a scum tell, so I half believe this may really just be confusion on his part. But only half.

greenlover - I'm still suspicious because he claims to agree now that NL is a bad idea, but didn't say anything. Of course, this may just be because he couldn't get on for a while, but we'll see.

webby and GoP - I just wanted to comment on role spec. I think role spec is a good thing, but I think the focus should be on scum roles. It seems to me that one of the more important tools we have right now is that scum have no idea what powers town has and therefore can't plan for them. I think if the team of good magicians reveal their powers, it should be on their terms. Of course, I'm going back and forth myself on this, because if we say people shouldn't try to guess what roles the good magicians have, then it makes it harder for them to disseminate what their roles might be without actually claiming their roles, so I don't know.

webby - He claims that we're deciding whether it's better to start from 6-2 or 5-2. This is wrong. If we get to 5-2, it will be after a vote, so we're deciding on 5-2 with more content (even now, an actual lynch gives us more content than if we decide at this point to NL, because people are more responsible for their votes if someone actually gets lynched) or 6-2 with less content. If everything else were equal, more town is obviously better, but everything else isn't equal.

GoP - I agree that he overreacted when he claimed Adam H was "flinging accusations" back at him. When I read Adam H's comment, I wasn't even thinking about GoP.

So those are the reasons I have to be suspicious of people. Nothing is really jumping out at me, necessarily, besides that Adam H's posts have been a little weird. greenlover's post did little to lower my suspicion of him, but not much, but since others have done some to raise my suspicions, for now I'll

UNVOTE

I'm tempted to put Adam H at L-1 to see if someone hammers, but I'd really like to see what cjdrum has to say. Seems unnatural that he has delayed posting anything substantial so long on the excuse that he's trying to figure out how to read paimon.

As for role spec, the mod saying that we should be prepared to have no clue what's going on throws me off some, but I think the most obvious powers scum might have are kill powers (audience members disappearing and not reappearing) and roleblock (disrupts the good magician's trick). Some less obvious ones might be something like a paranoid gun owner, where, if the good magician tries to use them for a trick, the evil magician makes them disappear. Scum may also have the ability to make someone temporarily into a miller, so if town has cop powers, scum can make other town look like scum for a night. Scum could also be able to bus drive (switch two people so that actions performed on one end up being performed on the other), which would be especially confusing if town had a vigilante kill.

Okay, I admit that I'm no good at role spec and that it's hard to role spec scum without slipping some town role spec in. I may have gotten some terminology wrong, that's why I explained what I meant.

Ninja'd by Adam H. The weird stuff is that you said that we shouldn't decide to No Lynch and then voted NL. It came off as confusing to me, too, and it seems like it confused most other people, as well.

Ninja'd by Misnomer. Adam H says he plays mafia IRL but hasn't played here, yet.

[Adam H]

Wow you guys are completely ignoring/misreading everything I've said. It kind of reminds me a bit of Roband from resistance, actually

First, I falsely assumed (because this is how I've played on other forums and real life ) that if we do not get a majority vote by the deadline, then no one is lynched. Now I know that this is wrong. That should explain a lot of weird wrong things that I've said. If you want clarification on something specific, quote it and I'll explain my logic.

However, I still stand by my stance on NL. It is absolutely logical if you'll let me explain. We should absolutely not decide that EVERYONE should vote NL. However, it does not follow that we should not individually vote NL. Voting NL is COMPLETELY different then insisting that everyone else vote NL.

Deciding to NL means that we shut down the discussion. I am against that, for ONLY that reason. But I am NOT against not lynching! If 4 other people want to go against misnomer and a-wan, and NL, then we will have gained a ton of info, IMO it's arguably as good as lynching an inno, plus we're at 6-2 vs. 5-2, although apparently that might not be desirable (I'll need much more evidence before I'm convinced of that...) Clear?

'I was acting scummy to provoke discussion' is never a valid defence.

Agreed. But that wasn't my defense... I was not acting scummy, BECAUSE I was promoting discussion. Voting NL is not scummy - limiting content is scummy. You falsely assumed that voting NL limits content. Or maybe you think it is scummy to play differently/unusually, in which case, I can't help that because I'm obviously going to play differently from you guys. Everything I have said and done is something that a town would have said and done (i don't necessarily expect you to believe that at this point, but once I'm out of the game you will), and maybe next game you'll have gotten a feel for my playing style. But if I try and blend in with you guys I'm just going to look lurky and scummy, so I choose to be myself instead.

Role spec: Perhaps the magicians can choose a different role for the assistants or themselves each night. That would be both confusing ("prepare to have no idea what is going on!") and flavorful.

[Paimon]

Alright, so I'm happier with my vote now, but I'm still going to do the list thing.

From most to least suspicious (to me)

Adam H - OMGUS'd. Is back pedaling poorly. Still thinks that a no lynch could somehow be useful.
greenlover - Almost supporting no-lynch, but has reasonably good explanation behind it. Still don't like it, so it's enough to put him in second.
cjdrum - Lurktacular. Not much either way, neutral
Gopher of Pern - Seems fairly towny, and helpful, despite the almost supporting the no lynch idea
a-wan - I agree with the no lynch is a discussion killer on day two train of thought. Still decent scum would never advocate a day one no lynch unless they thought fairly little of the town...
Misnomer - Similar to webby in level of activity and contribution, moderately town.
webby active, decent posts so far fairly town

As for the evil magician and apprentice, as the evil team, they have a 'kill', which implies that the evil magician has some sort of other power, especially with the inclusion of a good version of the team. If I had to guess, I'd think that the evil magician is some sort of role blocker, messing up the trick of the good magician.

[Adam H]

I might not get a chance to post again before I get lynched. Hopefully you guys will get more info from my death than I think you will. Sorry to the towns for not doing a good job defending myself - although my objective is to see the evil magician and assistant lynched, not to live to the end, and if I were to play according to the flavor, I might even vote for myself. I'm a bit nervous about being under all these bright lights, you see. So I'm not too torn up about it if you want to send me away.

Misnomer, GoP, cjdrum, and webby should probably all know from resistance that my abrasive questioning-the-norm style of play is how I play as town (well, at least that ONE time), so I would be more suspicious of them for lynching me than Paimon or a-wan or greenlover.

Also, I think Paimon is an idiot. Of course NL could be useful. You are extremely uncreative if you don't think it could be.

[Adam H]

Also, I think Paimon is an idiot.

Sorry, that was a dick thing of me to say. I meant Paimon is being idiotic. Not necessarily an idiot.

[Paimon]

That's okay, I forgive you. I even agree that theoretically a no lynch can be useful. I've just never seen a case happen in real play where it has actually worked out for the town, and it almost always ends up starting the next day with a bunch of non-posts because people have nothing to go on.

[webby]

The deadline is about 11 hours away, which is in the middle of the night my time. I want cjdrum to come back and tell us whether or not he supports the Adam H lynch - it's obviously important to have a record of everyone's opinion on the lynch. It concerns me slightly that there's no dissent - the lynch seems to virtually have unanimous support, but it's very possible that if he's scum, his scumbuddy has decided that trying to defend him is pointless.

I'll vote closer to deadline, better not to put him at L-1 while there's still so much time in the day.

[Gopher of Pern]

Unvote

I think your last post was actually good defence. I think I follow you now. I'm not convinced of your townieness, but I believe a better lynch is available.

Vote: cjdrum

Mainly for lurking, but I've also noticed that he tends to lurk more when scum. I would consider Paimon, but I'm letting them go for 1 day due to newness here. (Watch this bite me in my shiny metal ass!)

[webby]

Hmm, I'm generally not a fan of the sort of argument used Adam H's last post - it's the sort of thing that town would do, but also the sort of thing scum would do (roband in particular does it).

I think cjdrum has been missing entirely from the forum, not just this game, so I'm not sure if it says anything about his scumminess.

[webby]

Ok, I should probably put a vote on (note to all players - not voting is very, very bad if you're town and I will look at you with suspicion if you don't vote). Also, give reasoning for said vote, don't just follow the crowd.

I'm unconvinced by the cjdrum lynch, because it feels like he's actually not here rather than lurking. I don't like the Paimon lynch either, because she seems new than scummy, and her last two posts have been better.

The only other person I'd consider lynching at this stage would be GoP. I mentioned a couple of odd things in my analysis post, and now the sudden switch to cjdrum looks very odd - I think cjdrum is as likely to be scum as the average player in this game, and that lynching cjdrum is the same as a random lynch.

I know Adam H is relatively new too, but I think if you take out the posts that suggest confusion about the rules etc., you're still left with some backflipping/wavering over strategy and not a great response to being called out on it. The last post is typical of person about to be lynched, and I don't think it says anything about whether he's town or scum. Overall, Adam H has been acting scummier than anyone else, and that's enough for a D1 lynch.

Vote: Adam H

That's L-1, no rush to hammer - I'd like some decent discussion in the next four hours for use on day 2.

[a-wan]

Actually, Adam H is at L-2 because GoP switched his vote. (5 to lynch, right?)

As of now, this being a turbo, both cjdrum and greenlover are lurking. I tend to agree that cjdrum is just absent from the forums as he isn't even modding a game that is very obviously over, but I wish he would get in here and post something, anything where he actually took a stance one way or another.

Right now, I'm still suspicious of Adam H, but I've also got my eye on greenlover (still) and GoP. greenlover only has two posts, one at the beginning where he says a D1 NL is a good idea, and one much later when he sees that his post made him look suspicious and he claims to have changed his mind because agreed with webby, though he didn't actually say that at the time.

And I wonder if GoP might actually be connected to Adam H. He was the first to vote for him, but he switched off of him when he saw that momentum might be building for a lynch on Adam H.

Something about that is not adding up. If Adam H and GoP are both scum, then the initial vote would have been intended more as distancing rather than busing, but after momentum started gaining for an Adam H lynch, then it wouldn't make sense to switch his vote--if they're both scum then GoP should have gone through with busing his partner because he would have gotten lots of town cred for being the first vote on scum. Under the scenario where they're both scum, switching his vote only makes sense if he thought he did it early enough to influence everyone else not to vote for Adam H.

But if GoP is scum and Adam H is town, then the initial vote on Adam H may have been intended to get town lynched. He may have then switched off of him once he saw that there was enough momentum to switch because he knew Adam H would flip town, which makes GoP look suspicious because he was the first one to vote for a lynch on town.

In the end, I guess I'm as confused as ever, but I'm less convinced that Adam H is scum right now, so I'll

Vote Gopher of Pern

As of now, cjdrum and greenlover are the only ones who haven't voted.

[Adam H]

Unvote
Vote: cjdrum

Lurking isn't necessarily scummy if he's just not around, but he's not contributing anything, and it's almost enough just to lynch him on principle. We should discourage people from hiding.

Not to mention he has just as good a chance to be scum as anyone...

[greenlover]

greenlover only has two posts, one at the beginning where he says a D1 NL is a good idea, and one much later when he sees that his post made him look suspicious and he claims to have changed his mind because agreed with webby, though he didn't actually say that at the time.

Geez, is changing your mind when someone points out the flaw in your logic the latest scum tell? And besides, do you really think I'm such a bad mafia player to drop such an obvious scum tell as yes-manning? I'm starting to think that a-wan just wants to lynch me for the heck of it . But I digress. After all, he is giving me incentive to be active in this game.

Anyway, I said I would re-read the thread, and I...haven't yet. But, I can say that I do not see why we are currently lynching Adam H. The guy has a different opinion than the rest of you. Is a different opinion really justification for lynching him?

Also, I can't say I see why we should lynch cjdrum. He is lurking, but most likely because he is busy irl. After all, remember how he just disappeared not to long ago, and how he said that he wouldn't have much time for mafia in the discussion thread? I am surprised he signed up for a turbo, but I think that's something between him and the mod.

Right now, the person I feel the most suspicious of is paimon, so I'll go ahead and vote for her. However, a few other folks are pinging me, so my vote may not stay.

Vote: paimon

[Adam H]

Well I should have been escorted from the stage an hour ago, but apparently the bouncers are occupied elsewhere.

Greenlover's post is scummy - seems to me like he doesn't want to vote me because he knows when I get lynched the people who lynched me will be incriminated. And a vote for anyone but cjdrum at this point is basically a nail in my coffin, without making it obvious.

Good luck! I look forward to watching the magic happen from the comfort of the cushiony auditorium seats.

[webby]

8. You may not post game content during ‘The Trick’. ‘The Trick’ begins when the aforementioned deadline is reached, a majority vote is cast or when the mod says so. Posting content after a deadline is against the rules.

[Misnomer]

On irc just now...

[17:48] robphone can someone do me a favour and call night in my game when applicable please? im stuck somwherr with no internet and vsry poor phone signal

So without further ado...

Votals:

Paimon: greenlover
cjdrum: Adam H, Gopher of Pern
Gopher of Pern: a-wan
Adam H: Webby, Misnomer, Paimon

Not voting: cjdrum



The time had approached for the first trick! Everyone was on stage, and it was all getting very exciting.

Then, suddenly the power failed and the lights went out.

'Ladies and gentlemen. We apologise, but we are experiencing technical difficulties. Please remain in your seats, and we will bring you the first trick as soon as possible.'

The audience began to grumble, impatient at the delay. Meanwhile, quarreling was breaking out on stage too. In the darkness, the audience couldn't identify who was speaking, but they could hear what was being said clearly enough. 'We don't need eight people for this trick!', cried one voice. 'Get off the stage!' shouted another, 'You'll ruin everything!'.

Then, by the dim light of the emergency exits, the audience could just about make out the figure of Adam H being roughly escorted to the stage steps by Paimon, Misnomer and Webby. Pushing them away from him, Adam H made his way back to his seat, muttering darkly under his breath as he went.

Adam H has left the stage. His role will be revealed after the first trick.

The audience continued to grow ever more restless. Surely the trick would begin soon?

It is now the First Trick (sort of). If your role PM contained actions to be carried out during the trick phases, now is the time to do them. The First Trick will presumably end whenever Roband gets back from whatever remote wildernesss he has apparently been stranded in.

[roband]

Cheers Misnomer. Yeah, night has started - actions please

Deadline is 36 hours from now.

CJ -PM me or I will modkill/replace you for inactivity.

[roband]

Suddenly the stage went dark. Completely black. Had the trick begun? No-one was sure.

A voice boomed out "Adam H was an audience member". None of the audience applauded. They didn't want to miss what would come next.

The lights came up. Two things had happened.

The first, most noticeable, was Gopher of Pern standing on a chair. He jumped into the air, shouting"I'm an audience member" and landed. As he landed, he looked around as if he didn't know where he was. "What happened?" No-one answered - anyone on the stage who knew would not be discussing why it happened.

There was a murmuring amongst the audience. Was someone else missing? They looked around and realised. It was greenlover, he was gone.
Strangely, a laugh seemed to be coming from beneath the stage.

Greenlover was a thrill seeking audience member - a jester.

So here they were - cjdrum, a-wan, webby, Misnomer, Gopher of Pern, Paimon. And so begins the build-up for the next trick.

It is now the start of the second build-up. 6 people left on stage, so 4 votes required to make someone leave the stage. Deadline in 96 hours from now.

[Gopher of Pern]

Well, that puts me in a bit of a pickle.

To myself and scum, that makes it obvious that there is a public cop out there amongst the good magician and assistant. Now, if they are masons, this should turn out well, as they will have 3 confirmed townies, but that seems a little powerful. Still, if you are the public cop, please dont fully trust me in the thread. It will paint a bullseye on you for scum.

On the flip side, if one was town, they could see that as scum manipulating the flavour. Which could be true, but they would be trying to introduce wine, because they are telling the truth.

I'm presuming cjdrum contacted the mod, as they did not get modkilled. They better post alot more today.

My scum to town list is as follows:

a-wan
Paimon
Misnomer
Webby

Cjdrum excluded for obvious reasons.

a-wan voted for me at the last second, when he knew that the Adam lynch was going through. If they are scum, they would have known both myself and Adam are town, and thus a town lynch was happening. They also knew some suspicion was over me, so a vote on myself would not look suspicious. This way they could look towny, without sacrificing their scum play.

Paimon bandwagonned onto the Adam lynch, hasn't discussed alot so far, and had 2 known townies up the top of their scumlist.

Webby and Misnomer both were misled by Adam poor play and misunderstandings in the beginning.

[Gopher of Pern]

EBWOP:

Is it MYLO?

[webby]

Ok, so first thing - the GoP being an audience member thing. The two most likely explanations are that this was the 'trick' performed by the good magician or assistant, or that it's part of the evil magician's trick to be able to write flavour (because they could create illusions etc.). Given that I don't consider either explanation being significantly more likely than the other, I don't think I'm going to put too much weight on it.

The next question is whether we should NL today. I would think yes. This is a turbo though, so time is valuable and we shouldn't be in any hurry to end the day.

I'm suspicious of GoP for moving his vote late yesterday - I'd like him to explain why he would vote cjdrum just for not being here - what made cjdrum more likely to be scum than anyone else?

I'm suspicious of a-wan for similar reasons.

Paimon I have no real read on yet.

Misnomer seems pretty solidly townie.

[Paimon]

Paimon bandwagonned onto the Adam lynch, hasn't discussed alot so far, and had 2 known townies up the top of their scumlist.

I regret mislynching, but I don't regret having the top two people on my scum list being made public knowledge. Adam H was an unfortunate case of a new player seeming more scummy than town, but having a jester high on the scum list can hardly be considered damning.

If the good magician and his assistant can talk, and if it was the good magicians who made GoP shout, then they at least have a 2/3 chance of voting correctly. If not then it was presumably the evil magicians, but I can't see them aiming for wine that way instead of having GoP claim scum.

Regardless, we don't know what the other trick was, and I don't like that.

[roband]

jayhsu replaces cjdrum as of now

and a mislynch does not guarantee a town loss, so no. But as the opening flavour says, who knows what's going on?

[jayhsu]

Hey all, I will do a reread later in the day. Thanks.

[a-wan]

First of all, I'm more inclined to believe regarding GoP that it is a result of the good magician, because it seems like if the evil magician had the ability to make up confessions, they would have people confessing that they were scum, but I don't know. Maybe the evil magicians are targeting me because I was the only one that voted for GoP. There's obviously some funkiness going on. At least now we know why greenlover was acting suspicious.

Anyways, yesterday I voted for who I thought was the most suspicious player and everyone can read through my reasoing. I hope people don't expect me to bandwagon just to get a lynch.

I don't think NL is a no-brainer yet. I'm interested to see what jayhsu has to add. cjdrum's lack of activity has made things more difficult. I'm hoping jayhsu can add something to the discussion.

[Gopher of Pern]

Well, 48 hours have passed, so less than 48 hours to go, and we've had 5 posts. We need more content people!!

If the good magician and assistant have chat, it would probably be a good idea to claim now, as we would have a good chance of lynching scum today, with 3/4 confirmed town. I don't think thats the case however.

I thought cjdrum was more likely than anyone else, because from knowing them in other games, they lose interest quickly if they are scum. It could be possible that they simply did not have time, or access, but at that stage, it would either be a lurker or a scum lynch.

I have a suspicion that the assistants might be roleblockers, distracting people from the trick. There has to be a doctor or a roleblocker out there, for it not to be MYLO.

At this stage, I would be willing to vote for Paimon, or NL.

So, it is not definite MYLO, but we could possibly lose tonight if we mislynch?

Misnomer, you haven't posted at all today. What are your thoughts?

[jayhsu]

This game is more complex than the 2 pages would imply.

That said, some preliminary, rambling thoughts:

-AdamH: Yes, this is a common mistake, advocating for the No Lynch, and then getting lynched, as town. Happened to me before, and I think has happened to others before (as town). It's an opportunity for scum to bandwagon and I will be investigating those who voted AdamH closely. Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but as he was confirmed town, etc. 3 people voted for him, and if he was town, the odds that those 3 are all town seem low to me (assuming 6 town, 2 scum, 3/5 town voting for him seems unlikely, though perhaps a good assistant would bandwagon).

-Is misnomer a player/flavorwriter? That's useful. Just checking. I was confused by this for a bit. Oh, I see where roband needed someone to fill in, okay. Nevermind.

-I do not think we should no lynch today. Assuming it is a 6-2 setup (1 good magician, 1 good assistant, 1 evil magician, 1 evil assistant, 4 town), and we are at 4-2 today, if we mislynch and have a successful scum NK, we will be at 2-2 tomorrow. This is important:

What happens if town and scum are tied in number? Do scum win?

My assumption is that scum win when they have the majority, not when they are tied. This seems to be the implication from mod posts regarding tiebreakers and MYLO.

In any event, this would be a very difficult situation, especially if the two town are not the powerroles/masons (I assume the good magician/assistant are masons, just rolespec). If they manage to both agree to correctly vote on one of the scum, they still then would have to bypass the tiebreaker coinflip (assuming scum doesn't bus, this seems a poor play to me, but maybe not?), and then lose a townie to NK.

If one of the powerroles remains, it's different. Basically, tl;dr, it's still probably in our best interests to lynch, for information if for nothing else.

-My preliminary reading is suspicion on Paimon, Webby, and GOP, but it's all pretty loose. And obviously, with the 6-2 assumption, these three cannot all be scum. As Webby and Paimon also voted AdamH, I will pay particular attention to them.

-Re-noticed the flavor/reveal from GOP.

Is the GOP 'flavor' just flavor, or is it the result of a player power?

I cannot fathom how it would just be flavor, unless there is some hidden bastardry here. That it's not bolded gives me pause, however, so I think the previous question bears asking. That said, if it is the result of a power, I to am inclined to believe it is the work of a 'good' magician (more rolespec shortly). So I would strike GOP from my list of suspects.

-Rolespec to follow in a moment gotta get my laundry agh