xkcd

by **roband** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:24 pm UTC

Quoting from my phone is a PITA so I will answer the bolded questions in order.

GoP, I've said all I plan to say regarding MYLO.

jay, I will not be informing town of scum's win condition (it's a semi closed game after all).

jay, who knows? Yes, that's intentional vagueness. Make of it what you will...

I'm so helpful!

by **jayhsu** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:34 pm UTC

Rolespec:

Generally, I agree with the 1 good magician and their assistant, and 1 evil magician and their assistant. This seems fair in a game with 8 people - 6 town (2 power roles) and 2 scum, one or both of whom likely have powers beyond NK. I assume it's actually a pretty straightforward setup.

That said, I don't really know. it could be 4 scum, 4 town, but then why not bandwagon? With greenlover being revealed as a jester - something *no one* seemed to see coming, this is a possibility - 4 power town and 4 scum.

Still, pretty unlikely I'd say.

As for the powers of scum and town, with GOP's 'flavor,' I'd guess one town power role is some sort of public cop. My guess is that this is the good magician, for reasons outlined by a-wan. I suppose we could have lying evil magicians to force people to say things, but... I don't know, I don't really have a good argument against it. My guess is, as others have mentioned, a roleblocker for the scum, which would force the masons (yes, I assume the power town roles are also masons, as I am not sure they have any other powers) to have the public cop. And the scum obviously have their NK and probably their nightchat as well.

tl;dr, I basically agree with the rolespec (actually somewhat limited) thus far, and do think that GOP is probably town.

I will try to look at Paimon and Webby tonight/tomorrow and post an analysis of everyone (if brief).

Ninja by mod, re scum win conditions: Interesting. I wonder if the scum might have yet another win condition besides/beyond eliminating town? Such as, discern the identity of the good magician and his assistant? This would be interesting. Even more interesting: The good magician and assistant know who the scum are?? But can't claim for a myriad of reasons.

Unlikely, but interesting. More likely it's a much more straightforward game than that.

Ninja by mod, re GOP Flavor: Well, mod, *you* know, but aside from that, I'm willing to believe GOP is town. Some possibilities and alternatives are outlined below (with some repeating):

1. One of the town power roles is a cop, and was able to announce it. (also possible: cop/journalist, or whatever the correct role is)
2. Scum faking (I don't see this as likely, if GOP is town, then that's a free town, if he's not, he might be subject to review by the town power roles, by WIFOM, etc.)
3. GOP self-claiming via power: Also seems unlikely, if nothing else then for flavor, however, if true, makes things difficult for power-town, see 2. above.
4. Other town (non good magician/assistant claiming): Seems very unlikely, not sure why town would have an additional power, incongruous with flavor.

by **Misnomer** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:06 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:
-Is misnomer a player/flavorwriter? That's useful. Just checking. I was confused by this for a bit. Oh, I see where roband needed someone to fill in, okay. Nevermind.

*resists the urge to falseclaim co-mod again*

Ok, so actual thoughts on the game:

I am certain that we should no lynch. Yes, MYLO hasn't been called, but from a purely numbers perspective I'm guessing that this isn't MYLO in the same way that 2 Vanilla, 1 Doctor and 1 Scum isn't MYLO - that is to say, it's possible that we could mislynch and survive, but that it's by no means guaranteed. As such, I'm going to

Vote: No Lynch

GoP's apparent role claim is interesting, but not that useful. It could be either a genuine public cop, or misleading flavour writing. The good news is that if it's the former, then the good magician/assistant has a narrower range of suspects. The bad news is that if it's misleading flavour, then it's complete junk. Fortunately, we don't have to base a lynch off of it yet anyway.

I think roleclaiming now would be a bad idea - that should wait til tomorrow, when the odds of catching scum are more favourable.

by **a-wan** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:04 pm UTC

My current thoughts:

1. Everyone still seems unsure about the GoP flavor. We'll probably get something similar after the next trick, which will probably help us to know what to believe about GoP.
2. The fact that we're not at MYLO says to me that it may even be possible to make it through the next trick without another disappearance.
3. My top suspects from yesterday have all been eliminated from my top suspect list by lynch, NK, flavor, or actual activity.
4. I'm not willing to risk a loss tonight, even if mislynch does not guarantee a loss.

So I think Misnomer is right that NL makes sense at this point.

Vote: No Lynch

by **Paimon** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:32 pm UTC

I vehemently disagree with the no lynch idea, and sacrificing a day of discussion seems wasteful to me.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:56 pm UTC

Paimon wrote:I vehemently disagree with the no lynch idea, and sacrificing a day of discussion seems wasteful to me.

A day of discussion isn't alot. Deadline is coming up, and there's been very little discussion.

But I agree, I don't think we should NL, but that because I'm convinced that a-wan and Paimon are scum.

Vote: Paimon

by **jayhsu** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:45 am UTC

We really are out of time soon, aren't we?

Quick player summary:

GOP: Some early rolespec, first vote on AdamH, then unvotes and votes for cjdrum for lurking. Is then possibly confirmed town by flavor, which I believe. Suggests that town power roles claim, if they exist. Not sure about that. Outlines basic ideas against paimon and a-wan. Proceeds to vote paimon. Overall, slightly scummy if I didn't believe the flavor claim, so GOP is town for me.

Misnomer: Thoughts on NLs, votes GOP for softadvocating NL, unvotes and votes AdamH for the NL vote (obviously wrong in hindsight), more attack on AdamH, now votes NL. I'm not sure this is the correct course of action, but even though he was on AdamH's case pretty hard, I find myself leaning town.

A-Wan: Thoughts on NLs, votes for greenlover, then unvotes, quick analysis on all players, but no real indications of his feelings toward any. I actually quite agree with his GOP-AdamH linking analysis, and I would definitely vote GOP today on that if I wasn't largely convinced by the flavor that GOP is town. I sincerely hope this is not a mistake, but I think I trust a-wan more now. However, his MYLO analysis seems contradictory to me? (points 2 and 4).

Paimon: Lots of very short posts that don't present much analysis. Votes Paimon, seems pretty bandwagonny.. , then very quick analysis of players. Next day quick defense of her voting and then not much else. Not very scummy, but scummies of the four so far... Also appears to be pretty experienced, but does not provide much analysis or posting for town.

Webby: Thoughts on NLs, and some rolespec, lots of thoughts on NL, but also recognizes that we're largely going by luck. Posts a decent player analysis, except that it lists most people as scummy, which is (hopefully) impossible. Ends up voting for AdamH. This is important... Agh I need accurate votals for the various times. Let me reconstruct..

A-wan votes Greenlover (1)
Misnomer votes GOP (1)
GOP votes AdamH (1)
AdamH votes NL (1)
Paimon votes AdamH (2)
Misnomer unvotes GOP (0) and votes AdamH (3)
AdamH unvotes NL (0) and votes Paimon (1)
A-wan unvotes greenlover (0)
GOP unvotes AdamH (2) and votes cjdrum (1)
Webby votes AdamH (3)
A-wan votes GOP (1)
AdamH unvotes Paimon (0) and votes cjdrum (2)
Greenlover votes Paimon (1)

And then AdamH is (incorrectly) lynched by Webby, Misnomer and Paimon.

Hm. If there had been a tie with webby going into the deciding vote, I'd be more suspicious, but maybe he reasonably assumed there might be a tie between AdamH and someone else (perhaps a scum), and broke the vote? It's not great, but, perhaps. Overally only very slightly scummy.

And that's six (I have not analyzed myself, I am all town baby).

So, I guess I find Paimon most scummy.

Vote: Paimon

Hope this is correct.

by **Paimon** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:23 am UTC

Hrm, this is quite the predicament.

I think that we can salvage things though, or rather, I can salvage things. I think that rather than let a day go to waste, and let you lynch town I instead choose option three. Claiming. I am the good assistant. The good magician and I can talk at night, and we hypnotized GoP into shouting his role at the start of the day.

So, seeing as I know three out of four of the remaining town, and won't accidentally vote for the good magician, it behooves us first, to leave time for counter claims, and second, to vote for a-wan, as he is high on people's lists and safely not the good magician.

Remaining players:

jayshu
a-wan
webby
Misnomer
Gopher of Pern (Confirmed)
Paimon (Assistant)

Vote a-wan

You may ask yourself: "Why is she claiming now rather than at the start of the day?"

The answer of course is that I would rather have lead a decent bandwagon on one of the three without revealing myself. But I am not all that charismatic apparently, and seem to think more clearly with an axe hanging over me.

Now, tonight the bad guys have got two options. Assuming that a-wan is one of the two then the remaining scum will have to try to kill me. This is because I can confirm the good magician, and tomorrow we can just win.

So tomorrow assuming that the 66% chance that a-wan has to be scum pans out we'll have the following list of players:

jayshu
webby
Misnomer
Gopher of Pern (Confirmed)

Or
1 scum
2 confirmed
1 town magician

Which is better by far than the best possible results of a no lynch.

by **Misnomer** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:06 am UTC

Blergh - I maintain that NL would have been a better idea. Paimon, if what you say is true, then we could have NL'd safely today and you and the magician could have public-copped another player safe in the knowledge that there was no chance of the game ending before the next day.

That said, we now have a claim. If Paimon is not the good assistant, then the real good assistant needs to claim now. Otherwise, I will believe Paimon's claim.

by **jayhsu** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:10 am UTC

Unvote

Pickle.

Notes:

1. Scum did not try to speedlynch you (though there was not much time).
2. If we do see a counterclaim (and if there is one, they *should*), I think we have to NL.

I will vote with you for now, as I am not sure when I will be back to unvote/change my mind.

Vote: A-wan

I would hesitate on anyone else voting for a-wan at this moment, unless there is no time left, as scum could speedlynch it (they could do that now, but it would be pretty obvious).

How much time is left in the trick?

by **jayhsu** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:10 am UTC

And by hesitate, I mean, strongly advise against.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:16 am UTC

I don't believe you Paimon. You have left almost no time for counter claims, as deadline is in 4 hours from this post. And if you are masons, and a public cop, which is a very powerful ability. Still, as the numbers suggest a NL is a good idea.

Unvote

Vote: No Lynch

*ninja*

4 hours left by my counting. I'm still pretty sure that this is scum desperately trying to save themselves.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if tonight is going to be bad for us. It is probable (to me) that the first night was a good trick (copping me), and now the second night is a bad trick.

by **roband** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:14 pm UTC

For a while, the crowd were quite happy watching the people on stage discussing how to proceed, but after a while it all slowed down and went a little stale.

BUT THEN - a claim! Paimon stood and declared herself to be the good assistant.

The crowd appluaded, as one does when someone good reveals themselves, right? But those on stage were less than convinced.

There was some umm-ing, followed by some ahh-ing, followed by some... well, silence. But in the end, the majority of those voting wanted for everyone to remain on stage.

No-one leaves the stage. So no-one's role will be revealed after the trick (unless anyone else disappears, obviously).

It is now the second trick, I'll give you 48 hours this time, from this post.

by **roband** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:49 pm UTC

The lights went down, but came back up much quicker than anyone expected.

Those in the audience waited for someone to jump in the air and shout something... but nothing happened.
Those on stage looked to their left and right.

jayhsu and misnomer were missing, gone, disappeared...

jayhsu was an audience member.

Misnomer was the Good Magician's Assistant.

Those remaining on the stage (a-wan, webby, Gopher of Pern, Paimon) looked at each other nervously.. This wasn't going to end well.

It is now the third build up. You have 96 hours.

by **Paimon** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:03 pm UTC

Well if people had actually lynched A-wan yesterday it would have been a good plan. I'm very sorry about the timing failure, I thought that there was more of it.

Vote a-wan

by **jayhsu** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:53 pm UTC

Aw boo offstage...

by **a-wan** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:11 pm UTC

I'm terribly confused at the moment. We just lost two town, so we have two scum left and two town. It seems to me like scum should be declaring victory right about now. So either:

1. The mod was lying to us and there's only one scum.
2. Scum's win condition is not what we think it is.
3. There's a double voter?
4. I have no idea.

The first one seems unlikely, so I'm not going to waste much time on it.

Second one is possible. Maybe scum has to eliminate the good magician? I'm not sure here. We haven't been told we're at LYLO or MYLO. If scum has to guess the good magician, it seems like we should be at MYLO at least.

Are we at MYLO or LYLO?

The third option may also be possible because the mod has never given us votals. Both nights we've been in a position where someone having a double vote would have forced a tie, but we know that ties are resolved randomly so either one of those nights could have been randomly resolved to follow a standard votal.

The only thing that's clear at the moment is that paimon claimed to be the good assistant during the last build up and today the real good assistant is dead. Can you explain this, paimon? Because right now, assuming half the remaining players are scum, this seems like a pretty good reason to vote for you.

Unfortunately, I'm going to be at a lake with no internet access all weekend and on Monday (US Labor Day), so I'll probably be back only an hour or two before the deadline. I'm not going to decide whether or not to vote before I leave until just before I have to go, but unless paimon has a pretty good explanation for her claim, then I don't see any reason not to vote for her.

by **Paimon** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:32 pm UTC

Because it made me less of a target, notice that Misnomer didn't counter claim. That is because I'm the good magician, and he was my assistant, and if my assistant had voted you (a-wan) yesterday like I planned (when the idea finally hit me after our chance to discuss it), then we'd be lynching Webby right now, and everything would be fine.

But I'm not bitter. Not at all.

by **Paimon** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:43 pm UTC

That is, my real plan was to kill all three potential scum (who were a-wan, webby and Jayshu) by today by lynching one of the three yesterday, killing one last night, and, if things went terribly wrong, lynching the last today. I didn't kill a-wan last night because I thought that it was more likely that we'd be able to lead a lynch on him today.

I didn't say so because I didn't want the scum to know that I was the good magician. I figured that they would know that the role was more versatile than just the one revealed power, and guessed on a doctor on one of the two confirmed roles. I figure that a-wan and webby both figured that they had a better shot at the good magician by killing one of the two unconfirmed town, and thus less chance of not getting any kill at all. I gambled killing Jayshu, but I figured that a 66% chance of hitting scum was better than what town would get (I briefly considered trying to randomize their kill) and we didn't automatically lose when I screwed up, so there is that.

So I guess the real question is why are we still going?

I think that most likely thing to happen is we lynch a-wan (who could miss the vote, and thus let us win), and I kill Webby tonight, or at least lock him down so that we can lynch him tomorrow.

by **Paimon** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:44 pm UTC

Triple post edit:

I didn't kill a-wan last night because I thought that it was more likely that you'd be able to lead a lynch on him today if I was dead, and Misnomer had no one to confirm for him.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:07 pm UTC

Vote: Paimon

Well played at the end of yesterday Paimon.

Misnomer didn't counterclaim?

OK so with 4 of us, me confirmed audience memeber, Paimon claimed good magician, after claiming good assistant which was NOT countered by the real good assistant. who had a chance to....

So it's 2v2. I hope you have a double vote, and can protect yourself tonight Paimon, because I don't see how we can win this. Unless all is not as it seems, which is what Roband has been saying all along, I can't see how we can win.

I will follow your vote Paimon, once everyone has posted (So, I'm waiting on webby)

Unvote

(incase the above is counted)

by **Paimon** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:21 pm UTC

I should be able to target Webby with some sort magicy thing that makes him unable to act.

The thing that worries me the most is the role of the evil magician. Presuming he's my evil double, he's either not very imaginative, or has been really sneaky so far. I don't know what he is up to, and I don't like it.

by **roband** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 8:22 am UTC

it is MYLO

by **webby** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 8:32 am UTC

I'm the good magician. I didn't kill jayhsu though, so I'm assuming that goes with the bad magician team somehow. I have a whole bunch of one-shot powers. Last night I protected GoP, because I thought that was the more likely kill choice. Posting from phone here, more tomorrow.

Vote: Paimon

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:33 am UTC

Vote: a-wan

by **Paimon** » Sat Sep 03, 2011 6:08 pm UTC

And now we wait. Care to join the winning side Webby? We are a forgiving lot.

by **webby** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:56 am UTC

Paimon wrote:And now we wait. Care to join the winning side Webby? We are a forgiving lot.

Is that an admission that you and GoP are scum?

Oh well, guess that means this game is going to be decided by a coinflip.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:20 am UTC

Webby, I can't believe your claim of good magician. Your claim makes sense, but I can't see Paimons claims as anything aside from town, as Misnomer did not counter claim them. I do really want to believe Paimon is scum, becuase otherwise my scumdar is completely off-whack, but I can't feasibly see any other alternative.

by **webby** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:26 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Webby, I can't believe your claim of good magician. Your claim makes sense, but I can't see Paimons claims as anything aside from town, as Misnomer did not counter claim them. I do really want to believe Paimon is scum, becuase otherwise my scumdar is completely off-whack, but I can't feasibly see any other alternative.

I agree that looks odd, I can only assume that given we were no lynching anyway and it was so close to deadline, he decided to wait until today to claim, rather than put a target on himself for the night. We weren't masons, so I didn't get a chance to ask him.

by **roband** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:14 pm UTC

Deadline is in about 24.5 hours.

I'm sure you don't need me to count the votes for you, at this stage.

Remember, tied votes are resolved by a coinflip.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:33 pm UTC

Whelp.

If Paimon isn't the Good Magician, the Good Magician better start giving me good reasons to trust them. I'm the only vanilla town left, so I'm your only ally.

Of course, Roband has probably cooked up some crazy crap, and it turns out there is no bad magician or some such thing!

by **PhoenixEnigma** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 9:29 am UTC

Boooooo!

*throws popcorn*

Man, this is like the slowest act ever! Come on, where's the action?! We're supposed to be building up to things, not taking a nap! Shouldn't you people be, like, doing things?? Isn't this supposed to be exciting??

Hissssssssss!

*throws more popcorn at stage*

This post officially mod sactioned

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 9:38 am UTC

PhoenixEnigma wrote:Boooooo!

*throws popcorn*

Man, this is like the slowest act ever! Come on, where's the action?! We're supposed to be building up to things, not taking a nap! Shouldn't you people be, like, doing things?? Isn't this supposed to be exciting??

Hissssssssss!

*throws more popcorn at stage*

This post officially mod sactioned

/me clucks like a chicken on stage

by **a-wan** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:48 pm UTC

roband wrote:Prepare to not have a clue what is actually going on!

I thought there would be surprises, but I also thought that by the time it got down to four people I would have it mostly figured out if I was still alive, and it certainly seems like two people do have it figured out, but I'm not one of those people. All I know is that the only possible way for me to survive is to vote for someone who is claiming to be the good magician, even though I don't know who to believe (paimon or webby), and what paimon says about Misnomer seems to make a lot of sense.

Vote: paimon

by **roband** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:56 pm UTC

2 hours til deadline.

Votals are currently tied between Paimon and a-wan. Currently, a coin will be tossed to decide the lynch.

by **roband** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 3:11 pm UTC

This build up started rather well. Fingers pointing. Voices raised.

And then nothing...

Boooo! shouted some members of the audience.

They couldn't decide. 2 of them pointed at Paimon. 2 of them pointed at a-wan.
A voice boomed...

a-wan is to leave the stage immediately. His role will be revealed after the next trick.

There is to be another trick...

Actions please, let's make it snappy. No deadline, but just do it ASAP.

by **roband** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:01 am UTC

As before, the lights went down.

As before, a voice boomed from around the theatre, "a-wan was the Evil Magician's assistant"

Then, unlike before, the lights came back up very quickly.

webby was half in a box, with Paimon desperately trying to push him in.

The audience gasped as webby pushed Paimon back, climbed out of the box and straightened his shirt and tie.
He glanced towards Paimon with a smile... "See ya" he muttered.

And then, in a puff of smoke, Paimon disappeared.

Paimon was the Good Magician

The audience applauded, not knowing what this meant.

Webby now addressed the audience directly.

"I am one of the magicians placed this stage at the start of the game. I just removed the other.. by force.
Now, he is gone, I can make whatever I want disappear!

Firstly..." the audience watched webby click his fingers, "we'll get rid of this guy"

*pop* Gopher of Pern disappeared into thin air

Gopher of Pern was an audience member

"and now... the rest of you". webby looked up at the audience, smiled meanacingly and laughed.

The video camera which was recording the performance seemed to be getting some interference, but if you looked closer, the audience were being covered in a layer of smoke. webby's laugh continued and suddenly, the smoke cleared, and the audience were gone.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"So whaddya reckon bruv, it's gotta fake right? Like most stuff on youtube."
"Nah man, that's some Derren Brown shit right there."
"Whatever, it's pretty scary man."
"Anyway, get off the laptop, someone showed me this bare funny video. It's a cat right, with a rainbow coming out of it's arse...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that's the game over, it was all a video on youtube!

Anyways, I hope fun was had by all. I've got some 'reveals' to make, those will be done shortly. Thanks for playing.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:03 am UTC

Damn. I guess we should have lynched Webby then.

by **roband** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:05 am UTC

Oh yeah, hang on..

Webby was the Evil Magician and gets a win for himself and also a-wan.

Greenlover also gets a full win, for being 'disappeared' by the Evil Magician.

by **roband** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:40 am UTC

So, here's the role information, with those 'reveals' I mentioned. Ask about anything you're not sure about, I will tell all now

Spoiler:

and the role PMs

Spoiler:

Who is online