Death to the Conspiracy! Game over, town wins!

[Lorenz]

If I had, I wouldn't be voting Misnomer...

[weiyaoli]

No reply at all, except that my action was received.

[Elvish Pillager]

Votals:

Misnomer: 3 (weiyaoli, Lorenz, a-wan)

[Misnomer]

Blergh, I get back from work and there's a wagon on me.

I was informed last night that my kill was unsuccessful, and I've listed what I think could be possible reasons. I actually don't think it's beyond reason that another player's kill could've been prevented by other means, not requiring notification - but a-wan's actions (eg. accusing me of scum but standing back while another player conveniently swoops in with the first vote) do nothing to convince me of his sincerity.

Vote: a-wan

[Lorenz]

As I said, I'm good with either a misnomer/a-wan lynch. Since I want more people to decide and force them to vote.
Unvote
Vote: a-wan

Man... I'm jumping around like crazy.

[Sruixan]

I did that thing I do sometimes where I pretend the world doesn't exist for a bit so I can tunnel on a project I need to get finished. Sorry about that.

Between Misnomer and a-wan, I'd instinctively side with lynching a-wan; his coy statements about the unsuccessful kill blurb did have a stench of cautious scum about them, someone who knew Misnomer was town but was somewhat flummoxed as to whether or not Misnomer was therefore trying to trick scum into following his lead. If Misnomer were scum and wanted to fake a failure, would he have explicitly said he received notification or not, taking a 50-50 gamble? I suppose it's possible, since if he was wrong then a similar situation to this one would have been forced which could probably be played to end up in a townie lynch... but it's quite the risk to take when you could just sit tight for a moment or two or just "forget" to mention either way.

But even then, given that the above argument isn't watertight if Misnomer wanted to take a risk, I'm gonna harp on again about the lynch of more_people. Misnomer brought up their scumminess early enough to get a nice big tick in the townie box. Add to that just how well that wagon got a-rolling and it doesn't half shine badly on a-wan, especially, as Misnomer pointed out, because he wasn't bold enough to start it himself. So yes, a-wan; based on what you said, you knew Misnomer had to be scum, whereas your argument for softchews relies on the assumption that you were unlikely to have been roleblocked, thus softchews must have been doctored and was therefore scum. It's fine, but not foolproof, because you assume you would have been blocked because it was obvious who you were going to target. You had to assume. With Misnomer, you didn't. So why did you not switch to a from-your-point-of-view certain mafioso? Am I missing something?

I'll have to look properly at this later when I'm not posting from my bed (yes the above is me doing this improperly shut up), but we really, really need softchews to show up and claim a kill. With all claimed kills we can do what Lorenz and a-wan have already started doing and check out town combinations based on the fact that Ibarra and jayhsu must have each haf at least one townie on them. For the record, all I got from the mod was a PM saying my target had been noted; there was no mention of any success or failure.

[Lorenz]

Yeah, I definitely feel good about lynching a-wan... I don't have much more to discuss about day 2, so I guess it's back to day 1 and see if there's anything else I can find. (Yeah... this was pretty much an I'm here post)

[a-wan]

If Misnomer were scum and wanted to fake a failure, would he have explicitly said he received notification or not, taking a 50-50 gamble?

If I'm scum, then wouldn't I know that Misnomer got it right and just follow suit? Accusing Misnomer meant revealing important information to anyone who hadn't claimed yet. As soon as everyone had claimed, I had no problem revealing what I knew and accusing Misnomer.

If I have to choose a lynch target between Misnomer and softchews, I'm going to choose softchews, though. I know unkillable scum seems unlikely, but I couldn't kill him last night, and I'd rather not chance losing another kill tonight if it can be avoided. It looks like people are again ignoring his scumminess again (strange how that works), though, so a Misnomer lynch at least keeps us moving in the right direction.

[Sruixan]

If I'm scum, then wouldn't I know that Misnomer got it right and just follow suit?

...no, not exactly? I mean yes, were you to follow suit, there would have been two outcomes; Misnomer posted the right thing, you copy, you look good, OR Misnomer posted the wrong thing to see if he could catch people out, you say the wrong thing, he calls you out. We reach a familiar scenario; you could have then said that you were merely trying to continue the falsehood to catch scum out, or you could have said he was the one who was wrong and we'd be in the exact same place we are now with the roles reversed by oh gog that was a ridiculously long and unclear hypothetical that did absolutely nothing to make me happier with the idea of you being scum well done me.

...I really need to stop making these posts in bed, because I never get the chance to actually sit there and think about it. As far as I'm concerned, though, despite Lorenz saying that receiving notification of a failed action is "farfetched", I'm wondering what I would do in EP's shoes and to be honest unless I fancied having a handful of rather bemused people asking whether or not I forgot their action, I'd probably tell them. It's the sort of info you'd think we'd oughta get as well; Minsomer would never have known that his supposed kill had actually failed if he hadn't been told, given that he targeted the otherwise deceased jayhsu. I probably should stop trying to read the mod's mind, but at least you can see where I'm coming from, right?

The lack of input from softchews is beginning to get annoying, becfeeling have an awful feeling I know who he's going to say he targetted and if it is the case I'm going to have to go and have a damned good think about the implications, but meanwhile I'm left in a state of not-knowing and if there's one thing I don't like, it's not knowing something I really want to know.

Final thought: Misnomer and a-wan cannot both be town. Presuming a town-scum pair (it would be pretty stupid otherwise), I'm tempted to say that if a-wan is the mafioso, then Lorenz and softchews are town; the former after that exchange on the last page, which doesn't seem like a staged scum-on-scum argument, whilst the former gets the townie pass on account of how stubbornly a-wan is focusing on him, except for if a-wan thinks he's going down and is thus trying to townify (it's a word honest) a scum-mate to stop his death from being worthless. I hadn't thought of that until then. I guess that shows I am probably beginning to drift off here... come to think of it, I'm not sure what one could deduce about the alignments of others from Misnomer being scum off the top of my head... I oughta rectify that later...

Oh, and I really should point out that I am actually going to be away Tuesday and Wednesday without internet rather than just forgetting this exists like I normally do, which does at least mean you probably won't notice anything...

[a-wan]

Every time I start to type something, I find myself just reiterating what I've already said. The only thing I think really needs to be repeated is this: Misnomer is the only one so far that has claimed that they were informed that their kill was unsuccessful.

Also, could all the town please think carefully about what Sruixan is saying?

If I'm scum then:

1. Misnomer is town
2. Lorenz is town
3. softchews is town
4. Sruixan is town (he didn't say this, of course, but it's implied)

If that's true, then he's saying he's got the town team all worked out, since I'm pretty sure we can't have more than four town at this point.

The problem is that this is essentially saying that webby and weiyaoli are scum, but if they're scum and Misnomer's kill was unsuccessful, then who killed jayhsu? Oh, I guess he thinks that softchews did it? Convenient that softchews hasn't claimed yet, then, isn't it?

Anyways, I guess his logic isn't technically flawed, but still, it doesn't add up to me.

I've got nothing left to say. If I get lynched, then my last contributions to a town victory will be my night kill and my flip.

[Lorenz]

It's fine, but not foolproof, because you assume you would have been blocked because it was obvious who you were going to target. You had to assume. With Misnomer, you didn't. So why did you not switch to a from-your-point-of-view certain mafioso? Am I missing something?

This is pretty much the only argument that REALLY makes me think they are both scum.

If I'm scum, then wouldn't I know that Misnomer got it right and just follow suit?

Maybe... Unless (what Sruixan said) or Misnomer is also scum, and you thought their claim was unlikely. That way it would appear as if you are a town/scum pair, saving one of you.

...I really need to stop making these posts in bed, because I never get the chance to actually sit there and think about it. As far as I'm concerned, though, despite Lorenz saying that receiving notification of a failed action is "farfetched", I'm wondering what I would do in EP's shoes and to be honest unless I fancied having a handful of rather bemused people asking whether or not I forgot their action, I'd probably tell them. It's the sort of info you'd think we'd oughta get as well; Minsomer would never have known that his supposed kill had actually failed if he hadn't been told, given that he targeted the otherwise deceased jayhsu. I probably should stop trying to read the mod's mind, but at least you can see where I'm coming from, right?

I guess it's possible. It's quite simple actually, someone's kill is bound to be unsuccessful in the same way as Misnomer's was, so it's a testable claim that we can wait on answers before playing with Misnomer's fate.

The lack of input from softchews is beginning to get annoying

I'm not one to talk, after my lack of input day one, but it Is pretty much who we're waiting for. Prod?

If I'm scum then:

1. Misnomer is town
2. Lorenz is town
3. softchews is town
4. Sruixan is town (he didn't say this, of course, but it's implied)

On the other hand, if you're town then
I'm likely scum, so is softchews and misnomer. It would make the town team (assuming 4 again)
Sruixan, Webby, Weiyaoli, a-wan. The lynch on day 1
more_people: 6 (Not A Raptor, Sruixan, softchews, Misnomer, Lorenz, Ibarra)
would mean that Scum was lynched, with only 2 town voting them..... even when I was such a good candidate for scum to lynch me? (Right... this last part involves me knowing I'm town but whatever) It's not impossible but it's quite unlikely in my most humble opinion.

[Lorenz]

Oh... e_e is still playing. It changes my last argument but doesn't quite invalidate it.

[softchews]

Ok, talky times. I think that I have heard enough. Also, I think its time to say what I did last night. Well, originally I was going to vote for Jayshu because I was pretty certain of scumminess, but just before night I read a-wans last post, and I was uncertain of my logic. I then spent the entire night re-reading everything before deciding that my reasoning was not certain enough in any direction to make a choice, so I withheld my kill (sorry for dragging out the night people, I was really trying to make a decision). Now, for my thoughts on what I have heard:
- a-wan. You have a very persistent grudge against me, which I doubt any amount of reasoning from me could shift so if you are town then tonight you are going to make a large mistake. However, I really don't think you are, since you say you targeted me and failed. I don't know if there are doctors but I doubt that they would target a town to protect unless trying to foster some sort of dissent amongst the towns (since you did sort of announce that you thought I was scummy last hour). More likely is that you are scum and that you lied. I have a number of ways in which you could have thought of working it, both successfully lynching me and not successfully lynching me. I am almost totally certain that you, a-wan, are scum.
- Misnomer, you are the only one to be told that your kill attempt was a failure last night. Now, this may mean that you are townie, because you are against a-wan for the truth and see above for my opinion of a-wan. It seems odd to tell someone that their kill attempt failed when they should be able to see it the next day, although without being told you would not have known because Jayshu was killed anyway. Hmm, tricky. I am tempted to believe you just to go against a-wan, which leads me to do this.

Vote: a-wan

If you are town, you are in a very bad situation. We will also loose multiple towns this hour/firefight sequence most probably. which would be bad.

[Elvish Pillager]

Votals:

Misnomer: 2 (weiyaoli, a-wan)
a-wan: 3 (Misnomer, Lorenz, softchews)

I'm returning to college next week, and it turns out that the current deadline will be kind of inconvenient with that. Discussion hasn't been too active in the last few days, so I'm pushing the deadline forward to UTC 16:00, September 3.

Repeat, the deadline is now UTC 16:00, September 3.

[weiyaoli]

I am going away for a couple of days so won't be able to post.

[Lorenz]

Softchews post is interesting. My analysis of it will have to come after the firefight.

*Unholsters gun*

[webby]

Apologies for disappearing, I've been quite busy (and still am, unfortunately).

I don't think either a-wan or Misnomer come out of that looking very good to be honest. One point that I don't think anyone's mentioned is that Elvish Pillager said that Not A Raptor was the veteran vigilante, which seems to imply there was only one of them.

I'm happy with either a Misnomer or a-wan lynch. I don't believe Misnomer's failed kill notification claim, so I think he's worse. Also, I trust weiyaoli more than Lorenz and softchews. And one final point is that Misnomer's alignment may tell us something about softchews - if Misnomer is town, and softchews doesn't die, I would be pretty confident of softchews being scum, because the veteran vigilante is already dead.

Vote: Misnomer

I'll try to post more later.

[Sruixan]

You have three guesses on where I am as I am writing this post. I definitely must do a proper one before the deadline...

Oh, I guess he thinks that softchews did it? Convenient that softchews hasn't claimed yet, then, isn't it?

Well yes, that is exactly what I was really rather hoping for and was trying not to state outright so as not to plant a seed in a scum softchews's mind. As it happened, that turned out not to be the case, which means it's back to the drawing board.

iPad quoting is a real pain, but Lorenz, your argument that Misnomer and a-wan are both scum... I said the idea itself was "stupid" earlier, but you do have something of a point; two scum each trying to bus the other for townie cred is a very desperate strategy indeed, but if it is 4/4 then I daresay the mafia really are desperate at this point. It would also be one of the more ridiculous moves I've had the pleasure of seeing, but then I'm saying that as if I knew it was the case for certain. Fact is, until we get to see them both flip, we can't, but it is an idea worth entertaining.

a-wan, could you please stop saying "when I die I'll at least have my NK with which to help town"? You've done it at least thrice so far and that's about three times too many. You're making me cringe, trying to shove your "towniness" down our throats like that and I'd go as far as to say you're trying a bit too hard... (he says, writing the next paragraph based entirely on the assumption that he's looking pretty damned townie to everyone else...)

I'm a wee bit irked that we have a tied vote right now, considering that appearances from e_e are fleeting at best. For the record, I'm intending to vote a-wan, just not until I've gotten out the proper post from a desktop I keep promising. I'm more happy to consider a me-Lorenz-Misnomer-(weiyaoli/webby) town than me-Lorenz-(weiyaoli/webby)-(softchews/e_e), but I'm more open to the idea now I can see a way in which it makes some degree of sense. Heck, worst case scenario, the town is only three people, but then I'm content enough with Lorenz being town (feels like only yesterday I wanted him in the noose, but unless the scum really are defeatist there just has to have been a townie lynch candidate yesterday) so I think we're only really doomed if we lynch town today.

[Lorenz]

The softchews claim did come quite as a shock to me as well, but the conclusions it lead me to are lovely (which involve a heck-a-lot of assumptions, ehich may be correct). As I said, the analysis it lead me to must come after the firefight, not to give away my night target.

Deadline is approaching... everyone should REALLY vote, not to risk a tie. not to risk an extension. (I think we've had more than enough time right..)

[a-wan]

I've made a mistake and it looks like I'll be lynched because of it.

I was too certain that softchews was scum. But now his claim makes me think otherwise. Why would he claim to withhold his kill when it was obvious that he should claim to have killed jayhsu? I can't think of a single good reason because I don't think scum would risk saying they withheld their kill when there was such a good alternative. All he needed to do was claim to have killed jayhsu and he would have shorn up a feasible town team, which he would have done if he were scum.

So if he's not scum, then he wasn't doctored. Additionally, since I was obviously going to target him, I don't see any good reason why I would have been role blocked and now I don't look anything but scummy. Basically I have no clue what's going on so I'm not much help to anyone anyway.

Good luck everyone.

[Elvish Pillager]

Votals:

Misnomer: 3 (weiyaoli, a-wan, webby)
a-wan: 3 (Misnomer, Lorenz, softchews)

Deadline is still UTC 16:00, September 3 - around 26 hours from now.

[weiyaoli]

Unvote

I'm happy with either an a-wan or Misnomer lynch at this point I think and tying the vote and ensuring the wrong person gets lynched out of the two (I guess they could both be scum at this point) isn't great.

[Elvish Pillager]

That unvote changes the vote-winners-set and forces a deadline extension until Sept 4, 18:43 UTC.

Votals:
Misnomer: 2 (a-wan, webby)
a-wan: 3 (Misnomer, Lorenz, softchews)

[Lorenz]

So now someone else can go ahead and tie the vote? You should vote a-wan to avoid someone tying it?

[weiyaoli]

So now someone else can go ahead and tie the vote? You should vote a-wan to avoid someone tying it?

Why would anyone else tie the vote? (Except to ensure a town lynch, but that gives us two scum for 1 town) Also, the only other person who hasn't voted as far as I recall is e_e, who is AWOL.

[Elvish Pillager]

Technically speaking, existential_elevator is absent with leave, since she has kept me informed from the beginning that she won't be able to post very much.

[Elvish Pillager]

"That's a plurality for a-wan! Lynch a-wan now!"

"What's a wan?"

"The person named a-wan, doofus! We've been over this before!"

"Yes!" yells another one of you. "Instead of having an inane argument, I will just shoot you!"

Everyone else seems to agree...

a-wan has been lynched. The final votals were:

Misnomer: 2 (a-wan, webby)
a-wan: 3 (Misnomer, Lorenz, softchews)

Firefight 2 begins. It will last no more than 72 hours; the firefight deadline is September 7, at UTC 22:00.

If you don't send in an action, you default to leaving it unused. If you want to withhold an action deliberately, please tell me so so that the night can end promptly.

[Elvish Pillager]

There's a very satisfying hush at the harbor
as they wait to hear which ones are gonna die

And as the bell tolls you'll hear me say, “Everyone.”
And when the shooting stops, I'll say, “Yippee.”

— "Pirate Jenny", The Threepenny Opera

existential_elevator, Misnomer, and weiyaoli have been nightkilled.

a-wan was a Government Agent.
existential_elevator was a Government Doctor. She could protect one other player, or guess two townies' targets and protect both if both guesses were right.
Misnomer was a Government Agent.
weiyaoli was Vanilla Town.

Hour 2 begins now! The deadline is September 20 at UTC 16:00.

[webby]

So there's three of us left? If there are two scum, one town, then it's game over, because the scum will vote the town. So there must be two town and one scum

I would think the course of action is obvious - vote for whoever, if we're wrong then there are only two players left and one is town and one is scum. Then vig kill the last scum at night.

The only thing that's stopping me form doing this and just voting for whoever (or even myself ) is that the rules say - 'The scum win if they kill all the town. The town win if they kill all the scum and at least one townie survives. The game ends as soon as one of those happens, or as soon as it's completely inevitable which one will happen first.' If it's not 'completely inevitable' which one will happen first by now, then the remaining scum must have some sort of power. This makes me slightly wary of the 'lynch whoever' idea, so maybe we should have a go at working out who's scum.

For the record, I killed Misnomer last night.

[Lorenz]

Nice shooting, too bad we lost one town but this feels almost over.
Living players

softchews
Lorenz
webby
Sruixan

There was indeed a doctor as I suspected, (which I killed btw, yey me!). This leads me to believe that we are at 3 town/1 scum now (I'll have to go over the numbers from the previous nights to make sure though). (and yey me for guessing both a-wan and misnomer scum)

My thought at the end of the last day were the following.
2 people claimed jayshu kill, 2 claimed an Ibarra kill. I assumed there was definitely a blocker (if misnomer was town or scum, this made sense), and that the blocker targeted jayshu (as he was a more obvious target). If that was the case, and misnomer was town, then one of webby/weiyaoli was town, and the other scum, but that meant that everyone who claimed a no-kill must have been scum (other than misnomer, which we now know to be scum). Out of e_e and softchews, I decided to target e_e just because softchews had voted more_people day 1.

So, just to make sure this logic still holds with this new information, and before I make my vote
Mod: if the doctor didn't guess both targets correctly (in case she decided to try), did the doctor fail completely?

Either way, I trust you Sruixan. If you trust me also we can lynch one of softchews/webby and then kill the other at night, assuming we haven't won by then. If they are both scum(which seems almost impossible to me), then they will tie the votes and one of us will die, and we'll have one last shot to kill them both at night.
I don't think the answer from the mod will really change my point of view. My logic had assumptions but It came good for me. Even If I'm wrong we'll be able to work it out. (The problem of claiming beforehand is probably over). I'll be patient and hold my vote until everyone posts, but I'd be happy to just go ahead and vote softchews.

Ninja-d by webby (and my terrible internet connection).
It's 4, not 3. It really doesn't look like a mistake from someone who'd have been thinking who to shoot during the fight. I guess it is indeed better to wait for the claims, even if I don't think it will make much difference.

[webby]

Oh right, for some reason I completely forgot about Sruixan (somehow I merged him and softchews into the same person in my mind ). It wasn't a tough choice as to who I was going to kill - I didn't do it by ruling out players - I was pretty confident that Misnomer was scum because him and a-wan both looked pretty bad.

I don't quite understand your logic Lorenz? Why do you trust Sruixan?

[Elvish Pillager]

Mod: if the doctor didn't guess both targets correctly (in case she decided to try), did the doctor fail completely?

Yes.

[Lorenz]

I trust sruixan because they have acted in a townie manner, scum-hunting and making coherent posts all the time, and I haven't found any faulty logic within them. My assumption of him being town also lead me to the conclusion that both a-wan and misnomer were scum, which came true, and it also lead me to shoot e_e. It's like playing Sudoku and taking a guess, if you're wrong you're eventually going to get your assumption disproven. That hasn't happened.
I don't think I have anything more to comment until the rest of the claims.

[webby]

I trust sruixan because they have acted in a townie manner, scum-hunting and making coherent posts all the time, and I haven't found any faulty logic within them.

Fair enough - I'll have to read back properly to see if I agree with you - I haven't been paying anywhere near enough attention to this game.

My assumption of him being town also lead me to the conclusion that both a-wan and misnomer were scum, which came true, and it also lead me to shoot e_e. It's like playing Sudoku and taking a guess, if you're wrong you're eventually going to get your assumption disproven. That hasn't happened.
I don't think I have anything more to comment until the rest of the claims.

Don't agree with this. Just because you have 'if Sruixan is town, then a-wan and Misnomer are scum', doesn't mean that if a-wan and Misnomer are scum, Sruixan is town.

Btw, do you think it's more likely it's 2-2 or 3-1? I obviously fail at counting based on my earlier post, but I see no good reason to assume either.

[Lorenz]

Don't agree with this. Just because you have 'if Sruixan is town, then a-wan and Misnomer are scum', doesn't mean that if a-wan and Misnomer are scum, Sruixan is town.

Agreed, but it does make it more likely. Either my assumptions have been wrong, and I got lucky (3 times), or my assumption was right.

Btw, do you think it's more likely it's 2-2 or 3-1? I obviously fail at counting based on my earlier post, but I see no good reason to assume either.

That's why I want to wait for the claims, it will make it much easier to decide. But, for it to be 2-2 you must be scum or you must have been blocked. (and you can say the same about me).

[Sruixan]

I targetted Misnomer last night, so unless weiyaoli killed himself (...), then softchews is the only person who could have killed him. Therefore, webby is scum.

Vote: webby

...well that was surprisingly simple...

[Lorenz]

vote: webby

My thought was that it was softchews who was going to be scum, but this does make it surprisingly simple. If Sruixan does happen to be scum, then we will win anyway.

[Sruixan]

EBWOP: well ok that was a bit rash, especially since I was the person who suggested the idea of a scum redirect in the first place. I was more thinking that webby+weiyaoli both being town was decidedly unlikely (in fact I never factored it in when I decided that Misnomer would be the best kill, since there were very few D3 situation where the mafioso wasn't obvious from my perspective at least). a-wan's interactions with softchews felt a lot like he was desperate to drag someone townie down with him, what with there being little he could do to redeem his situation, and softchews was an early adopter of the more_people lynch. I can't remember it exactly off the top of my head, but there was also a bit where a-wan pointed out Dr Ug and softchews's exchange on D1 as evidence that both were scum; what I do recall happening was that Dr Ug tried to leap on softchews for what he considered as a mistake but he was in fact misreading himself, backing off after NaR called him out on it. I would have thought a mafioso D1 would have been relatively desperate to get a justified vote onto a townie and the stepping down was not because it had been a fabricated scenario but actually because his rather shaky move was being frowned upon by two townies.

I can't remember much about webby beyond him having done that D1 analysis; whether or not that's an indication of in-the-background scum or me just not having paid enough attention, I don't know (it's the latter). Might have to look at that later, just in case...

[Lorenz]

Umm.. scum redirector? I hadn't thought of that. It would make things more difficult, but how come no townies were shot in the first firefight? I doubt it.

[softchews]

Ok, just to get this clear, people left and claims.

Softchews - Weiyaoli (I made a bad mistake, but I did not like the lack of information he put about his choices at many points, and felt he could be not talking on purpose.)
Lorenz - e_e
Webby - misnomer
Sruixan - misnomer

There were 3 NKs last night. One was on a town. That means that there are either 2 or 3 towns in that list. Weiyaoli could have targeted either e_e or misnomer from that list (he really cannot have targeted himself) so anyone could be lying. Anyone!

Yes, I do think that webby is scummiest out of this list, but I do not want to vote yet because of how short this hour would be and how little we would have spoken. Also, I am not 100% sure and think that we could be being played by someone... but only if I am being really paranoid.