[S] Smalltown Mafia: Werewolf Wins!

[weiyaoli]

I stalked mpolo last night and he targeted Ibarra. Since roband/BF are all dead, I'm thinking that either mafia withheld their kill last night to frame Lataro (possible) or mpolo is definitely not scum at this point. I guess the other option is that mafia and WW both targeted Lorenz and the WW kill took priority.

[a-wan]

Lataro, I think you've misread me. If I thought it was 100% that you were mafia, I'd be going after you right now like I did yesterday. My last post was more to admit that there's a good chance that you're not mafia. If you are, then the fact that you know that you're not mafia means that you should be able to think more clearly than I have been and I would like to see your thoughts on it. Your "plan" for yesterday seems reasonable enough. The fact is, though, you've defended roband multiple times and now he's flipped scum. You also claimed to be certain that BF was mafia, and he has flipped town. Part of my reason for suspecting you is that it seemed like you decided BF was scum too quickly and stopped giving reasons for it and just kept insisting that everything he did was scummy. Even if you weren't as convinced as I was by BF's misunderstanding the mechanics of the game, I never saw a clear reason why you would so strongly believe he was scum over roband, so my conclusion was that it was extra knowledge that you had that I didn't--namely that you and roband were mafia together. That's why I suspected you.

I'm being frank when I say that I'm undecided on the matter now, but it would be helpful to understand better why you defended roband and accused BF if you're town. Also, it would be useful to know your thoughts on who scum might be.

[a-wan]

One more thing. Part of the reason I'm willing to believe that Lataro may not be mafia is Thirdkoopa. The only person roband linked to was Lataro. In fact, he basically confirmed Ibarra was not mafia in the way he behaved, but Lorenz was right to point out that he aligned maybe a little too easily with Lataro. Maybe the reason he didn't link to anybody was because his partner has been trying to lie low.

Thirdkoopa, skipping one vote was a little scummy, but I can't think of a single non-scummy excuse for skipping two. I hope you can.

On the plus side, Thirdkoopa, you may be easing off of my WW suspect list.

[mpolo]

Apparently BoomFrog targetted me -- because I targeted Lataro. (Because I really believed BoomFrog was scum, I wanted the poisoning to go through.)

This presumably means that either the mafia withheld their kill, or they targetted Ibarra, since my protection was deflected there.

EBeforePost: I tried to send this this morning, but my Internet died. I will get back with more shortly or tomorrow.

[mpolo]

Ibarra: I think is solidly townie.
Lataro: Is at least weakly townie in my eyes. Boomfrog's not being scum weakens him a bit, perhaps, but I also believed that BF was scum, so this is not the most damaging evidence in my eyes.
a-wan: There was a moment yesterday when I was doubting myself on him, but I will have to go back and look at this to say more. I am tending to think that he is town at the moment.
weiyaoli: no real tells.
Thirdkoopa: Looking generally the worst due to inactivity.

But there have to be two scum there. I'm going to need some more time with this, and unfortunately, have no time right now to do so.

[Lataro]

Right, so 6 players alive, one mafia, one SK left.

For Reference:
Carter the Medic - mpolo
Jeremy the Recluse - Thirdkoopa
Narisssa the Flirt -vikingfan a-wan
Lois the Stalker - weiyaoli
Ethel the Poisoner - Lataro
Harry the Private Detective - Ibarra

At this point, I think we can be fairly sure a-wan isn't mafia, WW is still possible, but mafia, very unlikely. Knowing my own alignment to be town, that leaves mpolo, tk, weiyaoli, and ibarra as possible mafia suspects.

Skimming over D2 and the N2 actions, one thing jumps to mind immediately.

Why did the WW kill Lorenz?

I mean, his role isn't able to effect the WW's kill, only his other power. It seems like a very odd choice, or a very calculated choice...

I mean, if the WW is killing to eliminate powers, and to try and not clash with the mafia, then Lorenz kinda makes sense. If I were the WW last night, I would assume that mpolo would be mafia killed, and look for a different target, since maximizing kills is in the WW's best interests. Alternatively, they both could have targeted Lorenz for the same reason, to try and get a-wan's "kill" back in the game.

This would be a moot point for a-wan to care about as a WW killer, since if they die, they lose, the extra kill doesn't really add much, so there is no reason to try and kill Lorenz to get it back. In his shoe's, I'd pry want to keep Lorenz around to tie up more town powers... I'd say this is a point in favor against a-wan as WW.

At this point, I'd say likely mafia and likely WW is in the group of mpolo, tk, weiyaoli, and ibarra.

Fortunately, we got a VERY lovely chain of powers from last night.

Ibarra confirms weiyaoli targeting mpolo.

That means both of them used their power. Ibarra would have been a sensible mafia kill choice as well, since he can confirm who targeted someone who was killed by the mafia. Since mpolo targeted me, and it seems logical that BF would target Ibarra and me, since he'd likely work under the assumption that if mafia goes after a threat, since Ibarra can point them out if things go south, he can get me dead and live til D3. This all fits rather charmingly.

Now, one of those three could be the WW still, however, that leaves one person to be mafia and carry out a kill last night.

Vote: TK

Under the assumption that a-wan isn't mafia, and with everyone else, including me, having their power confirmed as used, that leaves a single player whose actions can't be confirmed, and thus, is likely mafia.

As for the WW... I don't think anyone would object to another night of killing (likely me or a-wan, since our powers are the only threat to the WW at this stage) to narrow the field. I think the case for TK as mafia is fairly strong. In theory, if everyone else accepts that a-wan would be a horribly unlikely as mafia, and spoke true about their use of power true, they can all reach this same conclusion.

A further note, it could be argued due to claim order that weiyaoli is lying. However, Ibarra would have to be lying as well, and they both have no reason to do so in a way that coordinates each other like that. Further, mpolo is alive, so the mafia did not target him, so assuming that they aren't working together in some strange plot without knowing they are both lying in advance, the story checks out. As said, provided everyone thus far is telling the truth and not lying to cover for someone else, for no good reason mind you, as no one alive would know another's alignment at this point, it looks pretty solid.

[weiyaoli]

Lataro, have you considered that the final mafia (if it wasn't you) withheld their kill last night to frame you? Because they knew that they would gain an extra kill from you targeting BF and leave you as a VERY convenient scrapegoat tomorrow, especially with a-wan's huge push against you yesterday. Therefore, I think mafia should from your perspective have plenty of reason to withhold their kill and go with their normal actions.

Of course, the more obvious reason is that the mafia targeted Ibarra, who was protected by mpolo. Which would leave either a-wan or TK as possible scum in that case.

[Lataro]

I really don't see any good reason for them to withhold a kill. They need the WW dead as much as the rest of us (minus the WW of course). Withholding a chance to kill the WW would be VERY suboptimal play IMO. They also have no reason to desire 6 alive vs. having 5 alive. The WW and the mafia are mutually exclusive and can not work together, least they play against their own stated wins, if they knowingly did so. (The mafia can't get WW help openly, as they'll be exposed for a WW kill the following night. The WW can't get help from the mafia since the mafia needs to lynch the WW before being killed themselves. I'd argue that if either tried to openly seek the help of the other, they'd be playing against their stated win condition, and deserve a modkill.)

So, short answer, no, I do not think that the mafia withheld their kill. The idea of doing it to frame me seems rather useless, since as it has turned out, it seems to have completely backfired on them if that was their goal. If they did however, then yes, it does no mean that TK is the only logical scum choice. I think that is unlikely however, and more to the point, their voting record, or lack of, seems to imply something fishy. They could in fact be mafia still that withheld as you think, or, more likely, WW, since by being a constant non-voter, they haven't really, "ticked anyone off" and risked being killed by the mafia if he is the WW.

At this time, I think mafia is more likely for the reasons in the previous post, but WW would not shock me.

[Thirdkoopa]

Thirdkoopa, skipping one vote was a little scummy, but I can't think of a single non-scummy excuse for skipping two. I hope you can.

I really don't have time for the rest of this but,

At the time of the Mie lynch we already have enough votes to deadline. Correct me if I'm wrong but I said I would vote him (Or a Lurker or Lataro D1, can't remember my D1 reads) if we needed to. There was no point in putting a vote and unfortunately I was late.

D2 I was about to place a vote on you A-Wan (but after the whole Roband case, I really don't have you as much of a Mafia read. SK read is going out to anyone right now but I really need to take a read in things) but then we got to Roband, whom I was also pretty well sold on that case, but I said I wasn't going to vote there because it would've been a hammer. Plus, I wasn't feeling the A-Wan vote as much and by that time we were already in close to deadline, so switching a lynch would have probably not helped at all for reads.

I know I have a lot else to answer and I know I have a lot to catch up on so I'm glad we're all not fast to rush a lynch. But right now don't lynch me because I'd rather not have my lynch pull the game into most likely a Prisoner's Dilemma unless the Wolf or the Mafia kills the other one.

Tune in next time for 90% more on who I think is scum and only 10% of me defending (With the rest of what I need to reply to)

[a-wan]

Mod: If mafia and WW target the same person, and the doctor does not protect that person, would we know that both factions targeted him?

[a-wan]

EBWOP: Meant to bold that...

Mod: If mafia and WW target the same person, and the doctor does not protect that person, would we know that both factions targeted him?

[Misnomer]

EBWOP: Meant to bold that...

Mod: If mafia and WW target the same person, and the doctor does not protect that person, would we know that both factions targeted him?

Assuming that neither action was prevented in any way, you would only be informed in the day start flavour that the target had been killed by the werewolf.

[a-wan]

Tune in next time for 90% more on who I think is scum and only 10% of me defending (With the rest of what I need to reply to)

As I think this may be critical in understanding who is mafia, I'll wait for this post before commenting further.

[mpolo]

I guess I'm in the same boat here. I am really inclined to vote for ThirdKoopa at present, but I would rather hear first what he has to say for himself.

[Lataro]

/me isn't holding his breath on long fabled posts that haven't happened the last two game days.

[a-wan]

While we wait for Thirdkoopa to compose his thoughts, or show any more than a passing interest in the game, maybe we should change gears a little.

Yesterday, it felt like killing mafia had reached equal importance to killing WW because I was convinced Lataro and roband were scum and killing mafia would therefore prevent the mafia kill and/or out the other mafia. Today, on the other hand, mafia seems safer than it did yesterday. We're down to fewer people but we still have tracker, watcher, and doctor, which means we have the chance to catch them killing and/or block the kill.

That said, should we at least start discussing WW suspects, since we've spent so much time on mafia? I've had a few people I have suspected, but right now I'm strongly leaning towards one person in particular. Now here is my take on all this, I think Lataro is either mafia or town. I don't think he's WW. He linked too much with roband, so he either naively trusted roband when he shouldn't or he's mafia. It seems to me, the WW will not have linked with anyone.

Everyone knows that I've suspected Thirdkoopa as WW, for his lack of links, but I also think that if Lataro isn't mafia, then Thirdkoopa's at the top of the mafia list for the same reason.

The point I have in favor of Ibarra being WW is one I have already brought up: his vote for BF on the first day. BF was the only one who could protect GoP, so voting to kill the bus driver is a WW move. Ibarra has seemed towny throughout, otherwise.

As for mpolo, it seems confirmed that he used his power again last night. In my mind, it seems like if the doctor is the WW, then it is in his best interest to use his power in such a way that it will not block the mafia kill (for instance, doctor the person he ends up killing), and it has not seemed like he has done this. In my mind, based on actions that are apparently confirmed, mpolo is not the WW.

As most people have said, weiyaoli seems to blend in and has been hard to get a read on. He may be neutral from that standpoint, but I feel somewhat confident in eliminating Lataro and mpolo from the list of WW suspects, so my list, with very little to go on, includes:

Thirdkoopa
Ibarra
weiyaoli

I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on who the strongest suspect is before I say who mine is.

[Thirdkoopa]

I'm here, I'm back, and I'm getting to my posts. This has honestly been a very busy week for me. I've been reading too many books, doing too much with my college freshman year, and so on.

[Thirdkoopa]

Here we go:

10% My defense: So what I'm mostly seeing so far is 1. Voting Patterns (or, as Lataro said, my lack of) 2. Inactivity and 3. Apparently everyone used their actions (Do I have this correct? I kinda forget) and in my thoughts:

1. Voting Patterns - While I'll agree there's a lack of this, I don't see how it solidifies anything. I was about to vote numerous times (and as you see, the opportunity wasn't ever enabled well) I also get scared of hammers on new sites. It's just not enough to hold up compared to say faulty reads lists/scumhunting, awkward behavior, etc in my eyes.

On the other hand I'll say that fencesitting is totally a legitimate scumtell and we should easily be able to call people out for that at this point.
2. Inactivity - I really do have a lot going on in my life and If you know me, I don't make inactivity lies. I'll keep trying to be more daily here. I'm just really not getting the hang of the speed. I'll just let you into my shoes a bit: Is it easy for you to get into Mafia on a new site?
3. Everyone used their actions - Well then, to my POV, if there was actually a kill last night I know it wasn't me, Lataro, Mpolo, Wei, or Ibarra. So my thoughts on the "Mafia held their kill vs didn't hold" is the fact that they didn't hold their kill.

Why?
With all the roles in play for a start (Remember my Watcher/Doctor team-up I suggested way back and pushed for?) Yeah. It's very easy to get caught to a kill/have a kill not go through with a Tracker, Watcher, and a Doctor in play even with one of the three possibly as scum.

That said, the better question is with your role, if you were the last Mafia member, why would you perform the kill? (This goes to mainly Lataro) At that point the goal is to blend in with Town as much as possible which nobody really seemed to look into much with the argument. Doing that practically makes (Assuming Lataro is Town with me as well, which I think he is) lynchbait everywhere or at the very least, makes us all more confused.

Now then, 90% of content on who is scum:
I'll first say this is probably pretty swingy but it's mainly because we're not looking for two Mafioso's. We're looking for a Mafioso and an SK. And we practically need to have as much info as possible for when tomorrow is probably Lylo/Mylo (...or Prisoner's Dilemma if we're really unlucky)

A-Wan: Okay, so I'll admit I made a derp move there with rethinking my thoughts. However, if we're to even wipe out role stuff, I see him trying to legitimately scumhunt and think well. Everything really looks fine now here. I'll admit, there's a chance he could be WW, but the fact that he's also open to possibilities instead of say trying to lead a lynch up today and get a lock fast as he understands the importance of this day makes me think less. Usually scum are also in the people trying to lynch just about anyone.

Finally, one more thing on his note that even with my absence, he was still trying to scumhunt for other scum. Something... everyone else here lacked doing.

So basically, in-short, I don't think he's a good lynch for today. Considering tomorrow is a most likely Lynch or Lose state if we don't have the WW eliminated by then, I'd be a bit more wary. If we do and we're up against one last Mafioso, he's not the one. I'll also say right now if you're Werewolf (or hell Mafia) congratulations early on fooling me.

Lataro: Okay so... A lot of re-reading on him. I don't think I've ever had anything I can truly suspect him that much on being Scum on (maybe it's because I have played with people like him) - Answers to my questions were legitimate. I guess the whole D2 thing was a mess in-general, and I'll be frank in saying (much like A-Wan's general thoughts) I still have my doubt but for now I'm willing to lean towards a Town read still. I see logical thought process from today that makes me change otherwise. Asides from the fact that you were quick on kill logic, but to your credit, I really should be at least posting V/LA's if I can't be active. I'm actually very interested to see what you have to say in response to this all. But yo' man I told you I promised content.

tl;dr: Still seeing Town, maybe less, but at this point of the game it's expected that we'd all be more paranoid of each other.

IBarra: So we're going down on something more interesting with link-ups. He's successfully caught two Mafioso's but at the same time, I really do still have my doubts. Granted, I don't think he's WW as much (strangely enough) since I don't see much of a reason to FoS instead of pushing on the person you were going to kill anyways and not pushing it further. The timing of the Roband vote was also quite odd to say the least.

...On the other hand, I actually have something to say in your defense. Roband was trying to push a lynch on you with his suspicions after what I pointed out. Unless there's some concrete bussing I'm willing to give this my doubts.

tl;dr: I'm not seeing as much in this, but after everything with D2 shenanigans above all else, I'm not willing to test my gut reads on everyone.

Weiyaoli: Finally, a scumtell! Did I spoil it? Stick around for more!

First, let me start with this:

Of course, the more obvious reason is that the mafia targeted Ibarra, who was protected by mpolo. Which would leave either a-wan or TK as possible scum in that case.

...Which, is it just me, or am I the only one who read this as trying to pin a lynch?

Here's more of interests in old posts:

Well, I think Lataro is a very stubborn town, and that a-wan is definitely not mafia. a-wan has been very helpful, and is being voted pretty much for not agreeing with Lataro. The reasons are quite weak imo.

vote: weiyaoli

For not voting yesterday, voting a-wan today and following a-wan. I think it was pretty clear that a-wan was not going to use his power AND that I was going to block him. I don't see any reason why it would be helpful for town to follow a-wan. It would have been much more helpful to follow mpolo or roband.

Now then, this is more "I suspect Weiyaoli more based off of Inactivity/Rolewise" as much as I liked Lorenz content compared to almost everyone for practically this whole game, but here's the fishy part:

he was the obvious use for the scum killer if he was scum.

What really catches me: If A-Wan is Scum, he knows he'd get tracked to a kill as he's the best choice by putting himself down on that, so why would he do so?

The entire post over there comes off as a bit strange. Along with the idea of... tracking the Doctor, which I don't remember him justifying that since he said a while back it'd be pointless. For the most of the rest part, the content just isn't clinging with me (asides from some of D1, been tired and this is my last person I'm checking over). While he at least isn't hunting for lurkers at some of his posts, later on the content with D3 seems odd. It's all too much and I'd be pointing more out about him. I think the best way to put it is he's trying to put enough content out there to not get lynched off of a null read, not say anything too suspicious, and not look too close to anyone else.

Mpolo:
Before all else...

As for mpolo, it seems confirmed that he used his power again last night. In my mind, it seems like if the doctor is the WW, then it is in his best interest to use his power in such a way that it will not block the mafia kill (for instance, doctor the person he ends up killing), and it has not seemed like he has done this. In my mind, based on actions that are apparently confirmed, mpolo is not the WW.

...What?
A-Wan, here's a curiosity question, have you ever played as SK? Looking Town is more important than letting a few kills slide. In Smalltown, even if you're scum, you have to make logical actions and choices on what roles are in play.

Next off, there's this:

But there have to be two scum there. I'm going to need some more time with this, and unfortunately, have no time right now to do so.

I guess I'm in the same boat here. I am really inclined to vote for ThirdKoopa at present, but I would rather hear first what he has to say for himself.

...what. I'm questioning if you're town if you even realize the situation we're in.

You say you need to come up with more content (especially as I said, tomorrow even if we lynch scum today, we're still in a potentially bad position) then... wait for my content despite the fact you don't even have two true scumreads when there's two scum at least left assuming you... aren't one? To top it off, it's practically sheeping.

Exhibit B:

If he's going to be modkilled, we save ourselves the problem, don't we? As a result, I'd rather not bandwagon a lurker out of the game that the mod is going to take care of.

The... Hell?

And then there's the Miller thing which I covered. And then in reply to my Kingmaker (which as you remember, Roband, who was scum, also dodged this):

At the moment, I have a lot of conflicting feelings and have not had a chance to read since my last post, so I will wait on the second question.

And then Lataro points it out for playing safe, which is, ala, you guessed it, Fencesitting!

And then the hammer with little to say which could be taken as bussing...

Vote: roband

Now then, I did read, and I do know of the whole thing on N1 now about this being the only way, but on the other hand, we know nobody else did the kill and I see an investigator being easier to fake than well... A doc. I could see more as well since there was less to the "GoP did the kill" argument since we all had no idea who the other Mafioso was. And that's the only thing that makes people think he's town unless I'm missing something else.

And then WW as I touched on before; it's out the window. Everything else just accounts for too strange and suspicious. I will however give you the benefit of doubt (I don't know what Wei's reasoning is but someone mentioned he wasn't posting in many other games, think it was BF) and say that as knowing how it is to be busy I can feel empathy for that.

tl;dr of my reads:
A-Wan's leaning town, in my eyes.
Lataro is sorta leaning Town.
IBarra's leaning a slight bit more towards Town, but it all really depends.
Wei's leaning towards Neutral to Scum. All too... neutral, for a start, and I'll elaborate more on him when I have the time (this post already took up like two hours of my life with being half asleep)
Mpolo's leaning towards pretty scummy for all of the reasons I've stated above (and more I could nitpick) basically doing what Wei is. What's hard to decide is what's better - Going for the person who gives Null tells which might be a key more on the WW, or just going for someone who's generally scummy more?

Overall...

I'm inclined to believe Wei/Mpolo could be anything but in Mpolo's case, more likely WW than Mafia. A-Wan's really leaning Town, Lataro has a slight possibility as Maf/WW but I'm more looking forward to see what he has to say to all of this, and I've expressed IBarra (A tricky one to read with all his link-ups)

I think I've put it at enough for one post so really, do ask me anything. I'm willing to defend what I say some, and I'm willing to admit my logic might be flawed. In the meantime however, especially since the scum are working separately with one Maf and SK, I don't have to worry about this much.

Vote: Mpolo

Finally, once again, I deeply apologize for the lack of overall activity once again.

[Thirdkoopa]

EBWOP: I want to say this as well - I'm really kinda glad you guys came around, I've been lacking good arguments lately as that loses my interest fast as well. Lataro, you really do remind me of someone I knew before.

[weiyaoli]

@TK, you quoted Lorenz. I'm not sure which of my posts you are referring to.

RE Tracking the doctor, I don't particularly think that there was a better target last night. Lataro was pretty much accounted for in targeting BF and there was no point tracking anyone else except for either a-wan.

What really catches me: If A-Wan is Scum, he knows he'd get tracked to a kill as he's the best choice by putting himself down on that, so why would he do so?

I don't understand your point here.

[Thirdkoopa]

@TK, you quoted Lorenz. I'm not sure which of my posts you are referring to.

The one where Lorenz votes you and then you replied.

RE Tracking the doctor, I don't particularly think that there was a better target last night. Lataro was pretty much accounted for in targeting BF and there was no point tracking anyone else except for either a-wan.

I'll accept that for that suspicion. I have more I'm going through. (I didn't do analysis in the order I posted it in so I did yours last...)

I don't understand your point here.

Let me rephrase that:
I don't get why you would track A-Wan when A-Wan himself said he'd be the best person to do the kill. If he said he is the best person, it's pretty improbable that he'd actually, well, do the Mafia kill.

[Misnomer]

Votals:

Thirdkoopa (1) - Lataro
Mpolo (1) - Thirdkoopa


Deadline in 21 hours. I would suggest you all get voting.

[mpolo]

I probably haven't been as active as I should be. I have, however been completely open with my actions -- even mentioning that my protecting Ibarra was not due to my having chosen to protect him, but due to BoomFrog having switched my target. And I think that I would have glossed over this point if I weren't playing town, simply because it calls more attention than necessary to my actions.

Lataro: I have a townie feeling, which I never do for him. That could mean that I simply read him completely wrong and he is in fact scum, but he has been pretty aggressive in a way I wouldn't expect scum to act.

Lorenz: Has me pretty convinced that he is town.

Ibarra: Assuming the mafia sent in a kill, it was on him. Which makes him either town or werewolf. I suppose I need to look more closely there to be 100% certain, but I think that he is town.

ThirdKoopa: Lataro's argument is pretty strong, but he also makes a very good response.

Weiyaoli: Has been "off the radar" for some time.

I need to reassess from the point of view of claimed actions and the like. I guess that I think our two scum are somewhere between Lataro, ThirdKoopa and Weiyaoli.

Ninjaed: Yes, I need to get voting, but it's also too late for me to think completely straight. I'm free for the first two hours of school tomorrow, so should be able to act then.

[weiyaoli]

I didn't track him to see if he was the mafia carrying out the kill. (I agree that is pretty unlikely that he would carry out the kill, although I don't recall himself claiming that. When I pointed out that if he was in a scum team with GoP and someone whose action was important to them such as it turned out with roband blocking BF, it would make sense for GoP to carry out the kill because of the very fact I remember him being skeptic) I tracked him because I could then effectively stop any scum plans of claiming that he had flirted with someone (or back up whoever he had flirted with if he did so). I guess retrospectively there were better targets, but I don't see why he was a pointless target.

Ibarra: Assuming the mafia sent in a kill, it was on him. Which makes him either town or werewolf. I suppose I need to look more closely there to be 100% certain, but I think that he is town.

Firstly, lorenz is dead. What are your thoughts about a-wan? Secondly, what reasoning do you have behind mafia sending in a kill leading you to make this assumption?

[Lataro]

You know what TK... you've done something that very few people manage to do.


unvote
Vote: mpolo


Get me to change my vote.

First off, I am not changing this vote specifically because I don't think you are scummy, I am changing it because if you are scum, I think mafia is far more likely than WW, and the case you've laid out, combined with mpolo's reply still being very lukewarm and noncommittal, makes him a very strong WW contender IMO. Seeing as the WW is more dangerous and can not be detected though other roles, getting rid of the WW is more important at this stage.

In his last post mpolo basically said, "I think everyone is kinda townie, except weiyaoli, who is kinda hard to get a bead on, and is pry a pretty soft target."

Trying to be nice with everyone and not calling out their actions and being specific at this point is a pretty big tell on D3. Moreso when you aren't really offering anything else up as a lynch suggestion after being voted.

As to TK's actual defense, Most of it is very convenient, in that nothing can be deduced from it that is concrete due to the nature of it. For the time though, I'd like to see where this rabbit hole goes and see where things lie tomorrow before re-examining the situation.

As to the rest, as I said before, I think it'll be easier to make a call after another lynch/night cycle, when more info is at hand. I feel pretty good about mpolo here being a bad mamma jamma, for all that, and this little nugget. If he were the WW, it would make perfect sense for him to try and protect me, on the off chance BF was scum and was going to kill me to stop my kill, since ultimately, my killing him would help him regardless, and if I was wrong, depending on how things started off, I'd be a safe lynch choice.

As a final note, if anyone hammers mpolo, you will eat poison tonight, as there is no good reason to do so, except to end discussion. Mpolo, feel free to self hammer if you are scum though, I rather enjoy watching it.

[mpolo]

Unfortunately for you, I am not scum. Unfortunately for me, I have no further sudden revelations that I can make because I have played this entirely in the open (except for not announcing who I was protecting until daybreak, of course).

We know with 100% certainty that I am not mafia (or am playing an incredibly silly "play mafia as a sole survivor" ploy), since the person I visited did not die.

Lataro's turn around is hard to get my head around. The two scum shouldn't be working together (the werewolf could theoretically feign working with the mafia, but if it comes down to WW vs mafia, the werewolf wins because of the order of resolution of actions, so the mafia would have no reason to do so). That means that Lataro is even less likely to be mafia than I imagined before, though werewolf might be a possibility.

ThirdKoopa and weiyaoli remain suspicious from process of elimination. I'm going to go read a couple pages and see if I can come up with anything in the line of positive evidence about them, or see that my assumptions about the others are somehow wrong.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: Musing about what would happen if I am lynched:

I die.
WW kill.
Mafia kill.

Most likely three people left on the following day.

If WW and Mafia both hit town, then town has lost irrevocably. WW win is probable, but the last townie could play kingmaker.

If WW kills Mafia in the night, then we actually have four people left, one of whom is scum. This is actually not too bad a position for us, although it would imply doing a No-Lynch tomorrow.

If Mafia kills Werewolf, then we would have only three (the WW kill would presumably also have gone through), one of whom is scum. This is classic endgame LyLo.

I'd really rather not risk the game on this option…

[mpolo]

Reading through the last couple of pages has brought me a little bit of light, but not all that much.

Firstly, I apologize for commenting in the first post of this string on Lorenz, who is in fact dead.


Lataro - I may have started reading at a particularly bad moment for Lataro, but he came off worse than he had seemed before. A-wan was mentioning a possible link between him and Lataro, which he defended with a kind of sarcastic quip. And then roband followed him onto the a-wan bandwagon. What I don't understand is how he would, if he were the only remaining mafia, choose to use his "peashooter" rather than the real Mafia kill, although I suppose that could be simply cover, since he had already promised to kill BF.

a-wan - He narrowly missed being lynched yesterday, and roband was a leading factor in that attempt. As such, likely non-mafia.

ThirdKoopa's idea that I might be the Werewolf didn't start just today.

I guess I have to think about this (class in two minutes…). I am now leaning toward Lataro and weiyaoli as the two scum, but I don't feel ready to place a vote.

[a-wan]

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to follow my top two mafia suspects on a vote for the doctor. It's just too convenient.

As of right now, I'm 100% convinced that either Lataro or ThirdKoopa is mafia.

As for WW, I'm convinced Ibarra is town and ThirdKoopa voting for mpolo increases his probability of being mafia, which goes right along with my suspicions for who is WW so I'll

Vote weiyaoli

I'll make a formal case later, but the short version is:

1. Has been playing too "safe".
2. Soft played following Lataro on role-based lynch D1.
3. Didn't commit to lynch D1 (conveniently refrained from voting until he became the hammer).
4. Tried to justify his vote for me yesterday by attempting to pin WW on me when everyone else was suspecting me to be mafia.
5. Just enough short posts to not raise complaints about lurking.

[Misnomer]

Votals:

Mpolo (2) - Thirdkoopa, Lataro
weiyaoli (1) - a-wan

Deadline in 6 hours, although remember that you are allowed to keep posting until either a majority is reached or I declare night.

[weiyaoli]

My internet was being screwy earlier, so here I try this again:


Mpolo, you still have yet to answer any of my questions.

I think right now, the scum is between lataro (why scum kill when you can poison pretty effectively and spread wine?), TK and mpolo. Out of the three right now, I think TK is the most suspicious of being mafia to me, although lataro is creeping up with his U-turn on his vote, especially since he was the one who was shouting that there was no way that mafia was withholding their kill, something TK was adamant as his defense for the actions.

For a werewolf perspective, I still don't particularly trust the three above, although I do expect TK to more likely be mafia than WW. For the rest, I trust Ibarra the most at this point, although a-wan is shooting up, if only by process of elimination since there are only 2 scum left and I'm finding a lot of people more suspicious than he is.

ninjaed by mpolo.

[mpolo]

Firstly, lorenz is dead. What are your thoughts about a-wan? Secondly, what reasoning do you have behind mafia sending in a kill leading you to make this assumption?

Sorry, I missed these. I noted my mistake and commented on a-wan. The point is that since my protection was on Ibarra, if the mafia sent in a kill, it would have had to be on Ibarra [Edit before post: I guess they could have double-killed the werewolf's victim, which I didn't think of before.] And if the only mafioso tried to kill Ibarra, Ibarra isn't mafia.

It is at least possible that the mafia withheld their kill. If so, it has succeeded in confusing me. Because it would really surprise me for a lone mafia member to give up his only weapon.

And this is moving me to wonder about Lataro. If he were the last mafia member, it would be to his advantage to use his "pea shooter" instead of the "real" kill to get some town props. He still gets a kill, he still has the same risk of being killed by the Werewolf as before. Or he could be the werewolf, using two kills at once, I suppose.

With the approaching deadline, I have to make a decision here…

And I think I am being swayed by a-wan's argument. Elements of my thought process, not in a particularly logical order:

1) I pretty much trust a-wan
2) Getting rid of the werewolf is number one priority
3) A Lataro or ThirdKoopa mafia would explain a lot (all claiming actions, no kill occurring -- in the first case, it would be because Lataro had decided to just use his poison; in the second, claiming to be out of town is pretty unverifiable, so that he could try to kill [this time blocked by BF moving my protection] with relative impunity.
4) WW has been terse to the point of not being able to get a handle on him at all
5) I trust Ibarra, even after weiyaoli sewing seeds with his "how do you know this" argument.
6) Which leaves weiyaoli as probable werewolf.

Vote: weiyaoli

[a-wan]

ThirdKoopa, you expressed some concerns about weiyaoli. How serious are you about them? A tied vote would possibly put us at 1-1-2 tomorrow, which basically makes town king maker. From the looks of things, I'm more confident that mpolo is town than you are that weiyaoli is town. Would you prefer a likely loss for town, or do you want to go with your second best option?

[a-wan]

Also, where's Ibarra?

[a-wan]

One more thing.

@weiyaoli, if you're going to place a self preservation vote, right now my top mafia suspect is actually TK. I will happily switch my vote from you to TK since I think killing mpolo is the most obvious mistake right now. From the looks of things, I would say mpolo would do the same.

[weiyaoli]

Vote: mpolo

I think that he is the most likely the werewolf from my view. I'm not too concerned with both of my top mafia targets voting for him because I think getting rid of the WW is a priority for the mafia as well at this point. I'm not voting for TK because right now getting rid of the WW is a priority as everyone has said already and he's most likely scum rather than WW.

[Thirdkoopa]

ThirdKoopa, you expressed some concerns about weiyaoli. How serious are you about them? A tied vote would possibly put us at 1-1-2 tomorrow, which basically makes town king maker. From the looks of things, I'm more confident that mpolo is town than you are that weiyaoli is town. Would you prefer a likely loss for town, or do you want to go with your second best option?

I'm pretty damn serious about them, and in return, his replies are completely not helping his case, however I do believe he can throw out content (as he was on D1 and partially D2) but right now this is just pretty unbelievable. We're not going to lock a lynch before deadline unless we have to, but if needed, I'm totally okay with voting Weiyaoli.

Though I'm not sure why you'd say it'd equal a likely loss for the Town. I made my case.

Also I don't see why you're so concerned about rolewise just because we're your two claimed 'top suspects' - Is rolewise really all you have establishing a Town read? If not, I could go for Wei.

[Thirdkoopa]

...and now he made a reply

hold on reading through more of the posts

[Misnomer]

Votals:

mpolo (3) - Thirdkoopa, Lataro, weiyaoli
weiyaoli (2) - a-wan, mpolo

Deadline in 1.5 hours.

[weiyaoli]

EBWOP:
I'll probably not be on from now till after deadline, since I'm feeling pretty sick right now. Good luck town.